Daily Market Roundup

North America News

US Stock Market Drops for Second Straight Day, Tech Sector Leads Declines

U.S. equities fell for the second consecutive session, with the NASDAQ leading losses as investors pulled back from tech and semiconductor stocks.

Among the biggest losers:

• Nvidia -2.05%
• Meta -1.37%
• Alphabet -1.71%
• AMD -3.21%
• Super Micro Computers -6.26%
• Palo Alto Networks -5.69%
• Taiwan Semiconductor -3.03%
• Palantir -2.39%

Automakers also struggled after Trump’s new tariffs, with General Motors sinking -7.36% and Ford down -3.79%.

Index Performance:

• Dow Jones: -155.09 points (-0.37%) to 42,299.70
• S&P 500: -18.89 points (-0.33%) to 5,693.31
• NASDAQ: -94.90 points (-0.53%) to 17,804.03
• Russell 2000: -8.13 points (-0.39%) to 2,065.69

Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 remain above their 100-hour moving averages but are trading well below their 200-hour moving averages. The NASDAQ sits just 66 points above its 100-hour MA at 17,738.33, while the S&P 500 holds a 36-point buffer above its 100-hour MA at 5,657.45.

If the market continues lower on Friday, both indices risk closing the week under key technical support levels, which could signal further downside ahead.

US Treasury Auctions $44 Billion in 7-Year Notes with a 4.233% High Yield

The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44 billion in 7-year notes at a high yield of 4.233%, slightly above the 4.227% WI (when-issued) level at the time of the auction. This resulted in a 0.6 basis point tail, a weaker outcome compared to the six-month average tail of -1.3 basis points.

Investor demand was softer, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53x, below the six-month average of 2.69x. Dealers took on 12.67% of the auction, significantly higher than their six-month average of 9.05%, indicating weaker demand from other buyers.

Domestic buyers were a bright spot, with direct bidders accounting for 26.1% of the auction, well above the 19.64% average. However, international interest fell sharply, with indirect bidders taking just 61.2%, compared to the six-month average of 71.31%. The results suggest the Treasury had to offer slightly higher yields to attract buyers, signaling some hesitation in demand.

CBO Forecasts Rising Deficits, US Debt to Hit 156% of GDP by 2055

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its latest projections, painting a grim picture of the U.S. fiscal outlook. Based on current laws, the federal deficit for FY 2025 is expected to be 6.2% of GDP, rising to 7.5% by 2055.

Debt-to-GDP is projected to soar from 100% today to 156% by 2055. The worsening outlook is tied to slowing economic growth and lower immigration rates. The CBO expects U.S. GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025, but long-term fiscal pressures remain a concern.

Adding to the challenge, interest costs on the national debt are expected to exceed defense spending this year. These projections do not account for potential tax cuts, such as the likely extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts, which could further strain the deficit unless offset by spending reductions or new revenue sources.

US February Advance Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.3%, Below Expectations

Wholesale inventories in the U.S. increased 0.3% in February, slightly below the 0.4% estimate, following a 0.8% rise in January.

• Retail inventories (ex-auto) edged up 0.1%, down from 0.5% prior.

While still expanding, the slower inventory growth could indicate businesses are managing stock levels cautiously amid economic uncertainty.

US February Advanced Goods Trade Deficit Narrows to -$147.4B

The U.S. goods trade deficit improved to -$147.4 billion, beating expectations of -$155.5 billion, and narrowing from -$155.5 billion in January.

• Exports increased $7 billion.
• Imports fell $0.6 billion.

This narrowing trade gap reflects stronger U.S. exports and moderating import demand, which could contribute positively to Q1 GDP growth.

US Initial Jobless Claims at 224K, Holding Steady

Initial jobless claims came in at 224K for the latest week, just below the 225K estimate.

• Prior week revised to 225K (from 223K).
• 4-week moving average steady at 224K, well within the 200K–250K range seen over the past year.
• Continuing claims at 1.856M (vs. 1.888M expected).

The labor market remains resilient, though continuing claims have held steady between 1.84M and 1.91M since September.

US Q4 Final GDP Revised Up to 2.4% vs. 2.3% Expected

The final reading for Q4 2024 GDP came in at 2.4% annualized, slightly higher than the 2.3% prior estimate.

Key details:

• Consumer spending: +4.0% (vs. +4.2% prior).
• Final sales: +3.3% (vs. +3.2% prior).
• Inflation: GDP deflator +2.3%, Core PCE +2.6% (both slightly lower than previous readings).
• Net trade contributed +0.26%, while inventories dragged -0.84%.

The data reinforces expectations that economic growth is holding up despite higher interest rates.

US February Pending Home Sales Jump 2.0%, Beating Forecasts

Pending home sales rose 2.0% in February, doubling the 1.0% consensus estimate, after a -4.6% decline in January.

• Year-over-year transactions: -3.6% (vs. -5.2% prior).
• Index level: 72.0 (up from 70.6, which was a series low).

While housing demand remains below last year’s levels, the uptick signals some stabilization in the market amid easing mortgage rates.

“Despite the modest monthly increase, contract signings remain well below normal historical levels,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “A meaningful decline in mortgage rates would help both demand and supply – demand by boosting affordability, and supply by lessening the power of the mortgage rate lock-in effect.”

“Considering the Federal Reserve’s recent forecast for slower economic growth, we expect mortgage rates to slide moderately lower,” said Yun. “But the current high national debt will prevent mortgage rates from falling drastically – and certainly not to the 4%-to-5% range seen during President Trump’s first term.”

Daiwa Lowers Tesla Price Target to $300, Citing Margin and Demand Pressures

Daiwa Capital Markets has cut its Tesla (TSLA) price target to $300 from $420, citing concerns over profit margins and slowing demand in key markets.

Analysts highlighted growing competition in China and Europe, price cuts across Tesla’s lineup, and consumer sensitivity to higher interest rates as key risks to near-term profitability. While Daiwa maintained a neutral rating, the lower price target signals limited upside from current levels.

This downgrade aligns with broader analyst caution on Tesla as the global EV market faces macroeconomic headwinds and shifting industry dynamics.

Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA

• Trump auto tariffs

Trump slaps a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the USA (is in addition to tariffs already in place,)

• Trump says others will come into the USA and build plants
• an aide adds there will be tariffs on light trucks also
• will be another round of tariffs on April 2
• people will be pleasantly surprised about reciprocal tariffs
• reciprocal tariffs will be on all countries
• if parts are made in the US and the car is not, then parts not tariffed

Carney: Our response to the latest tariffs is to fight

• Comments from the Canadian Prime Minister

• Trump reached out to schedule a call
• Says will speak to business and union leaders to coordinate a response to April 2
• Nothing is off the table when it comes to defending Canada
• It is clear that the US is no longer a reliable trade partner
• There is no silver bullet and no quick fix
• The old relationship we had with the US based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over
• We have the best deal of a bad deal within what the Americans have proposed on auto tariffs
• We will respond next week when we know what the US is proposing

Ontario Expects US to Ease Auto Tariffs on Canada – Report

According to The Globe & Mail, Ontario expects the US to significantly ease the impact of auto tariffs following a call between Ontario Premier Doug Ford and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

• The report suggests that while tariffs won’t be fully removed, Canada and Ontario’s automakers will receive a significant advantage over other countries.
• An official announcement is expected on April 2 or later.

This follows President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on auto imports, which is set to take effect on April 3.

Banxico Delivers Expected 50 Basis Point Rate Cut to 9.00%

Mexico’s central bank, Banxico, cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 9.00%, aligning with market expectations.

The decision was unanimous, with policymakers signaling confidence that inflation trends will allow for continued rate cuts. The central bank also indicated it may continue easing policy in similar increments going forward.

However, global uncertainties, particularly surrounding U.S. policy decisions, have added an element of caution to Banxico’s outlook.

Sheinbaum: We are going to give a response to US tariffs after April 2

• Comments from the Mexican President

• We are going to give a response after April 2
• Within a free trade agreement, there should not be tariffs
• The door is open to talk with the US
• We will do what is best for Mexico
• Economy minister Ebrard: We are at a negotiating table with US Commerce Secretary to protect autoparts made in Mexico

Commodities News

Gold Hits Record High as Trade War Fears Rise

Gold surged past $3,050 per ounce, reaching a new record high of $3,059, as trade tensions escalated following President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imported automobiles. The safe-haven demand for gold intensified as global uncertainty mounted.

Wall Street suffered losses, and the U.S. dollar weakened, with the DXY index dropping 0.33% to 104.31. The trade war threat triggered reactions from global leaders, with Canada and the EU warning of potential retaliation.

Despite solid U.S. economic data—including a strong labor market and GDP growth of 2.3% in Q4 2024—markets are pricing in 64.5 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Traders are now focused on the upcoming release of the Core PCE inflation report, a key metric for the Fed’s policy decisions.

Crude Oil Settles at $69.92, Eyeing Key Resistance Levels

WTI crude oil settled at $69.92 per barrel, rising $0.27 or 0.39% on the day. Prices ranged between a low of $69.12 and a high of $69.97.

On the technical front, the next upside target is the 100-day moving average at $70.66. A break above that would put the 38.2% retracement level of the 2025 trading range at $71.16 in focus, followed by the 200-day moving average at $72.81.

On the downside, the 100-hour moving average at $69.12 held as support. A break below that could open the door for a decline toward the 200-hour moving average at $68.28.

Silver Nears $34 as Safe-Haven Demand Rises on Trump’s Auto Tariffs

Silver prices climbed toward $34.00, benefiting from rising global uncertainty after Trump’s 25% auto tariffs announcement.

Key drivers:

• Safe-haven demand surged, particularly in light of economic concerns.
• The US Dollar weakened, reflecting investor worries about domestic inflation risks.
• US automakers face pressure to shift manufacturing to the US, increasing production costs.

Technical outlook:

• Silver’s 20-day EMA at $33.20 is acting as support.
• Resistance at $34.87, with potential for further gains.
• A break below $32.77 could trigger a retracement.

Investors now await Friday’s US Core PCE inflation report, a key indicator for Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Goldman Sachs Raises Gold Target to $3,300; Sees $4,200 in Extreme Case

Goldman Sachs has lifted its year-end 2025 gold forecast to $3,300/oz (from $3,100) and widened its expected trading range to $3,250–$3,520.

Analysts attribute the bullish outlook to sustained central bank demand, especially from Asian economies, which could continue for another 3-6 years.

In an extreme scenario, Goldman sees gold exceeding $4,200/oz by the end of 2025.

Europe News

European Indices Close Mostly Lower

European stock markets ended the day in the red, with most major indices posting losses:

• Germany’s DAX: -0.77%
• France’s CAC 40: -0.51%
• UK’s FTSE 100: -0.27%
• Spain’s Ibex: -0.07% (little changed but slightly down)
• Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.10% (marginally higher)

Eurozone M3 Money Supply Grows 4.0% in February, Beating Expectations

Eurozone broad money supply (M3) expanded 4.0% year-over-year in February, outpacing the 3.8% forecast and accelerating from 3.6% in January, according to the ECB’s latest data.

• Loans to households rose 1.5% (vs. 1.3% in January).
• Loans to non-financial institutions increased 2.2% (vs. 2.0% in January).

The data suggests monetary conditions remain supportive, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will maintain its dovish stance in the near term.

ECB’s de Guindos We are optimistic with regard to inflation

• ECB deGuindos is speaking

• We are optimistic with regard to inflation.
• We believe that will converge toward target in coming quarters on a stable basis
• Main impact of tariffs on growth and short lived impact on inflation
• For growth, trade war is extremely detrimental.
• Need to be very prudent with policy.

UK’s Chancellor Reeves: The UK is in intensive tariff talks

• UK’s Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaking on tariffs

• The UK is in intensive tariff talks with the Trump administration.
• I believe in free and open trade.
• I want UK-US trade flows to continue to be strong.
• Trade frictions will make it harder to grow the economy.
• We don’t want to see additional tariffs.
• I would like to see tariffs between countries fall.

German economy minister: We must be clear that we will not back down to US tariffs

• Remarks by German economy minister, Robert Habeck

• US auto tariffs impact global supply chains
• It is now about delivering a decisive response from the EU
• No country can achieve prosperity through imposing additional tariffs
• We will support EU efforts to find a solution through negotiations

ECB’s Wunsch: A rate cut pause in April should be on the table

• Remarks by ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch

• A rate cut pause in April should be on the table.
• Inflation risks might be on the upside.
• The likelihood of a rate hike in 2025 is limited.
• Tariffs would be bad for growth and inflation.
• ECB is facing a difficult balancing act.

Trump threatens “large scale” tariffs on EU, Canada if they cause economic harm to the US

• Trump with a warning before we get to European trading later

“If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both in order to protect the best friend that each of those two countries has ever had!”

Asia-Pacific & World News

Putin: US is serious about Greenland. US will promote its interests in the Arctic

• Geopolitical news

• US is serious about Greenland
• US will promote its interests in the Arctic
• Concern that NATO sees the North as the possible foothold for conflicts.
• Russia has never threatened anyone in the Arctic
• There is possibility of cooperation in Arctic, including with Western states.
• Russia has to boost a fleet of icebreakers
• Russia will increase capability of northern ports

Ukraine to Present US Evidence of Russia Violating Cease-Fire

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will provide the US with evidence of Russia violating the cease-fire on infrastructure and energy targets.

• Kyiv expects a response from Washington, which had previously warned of consequences if Russia breached the truce.
• The focus on trade policies has pushed the Russia-Ukraine conflict out of the headlines, but this development could reignite geopolitical tensions.

PBOC deputy governor says monetary policy is supportive, relatively loose

• Remarks by PBOC deputy governor, Zou Lan

• Central bank is focused on more price-based policy tools
• China has sufficient room for monetary policy
• Will cut interest rates, RRR at appropriate time
• Will use various policy tools to keep liquidity ample

China Extends Stamp Duty Relief for Offshore Trading Through 2027

China will extend its stamp duty exemption on offshore trading from April 2025 to December 2027, aiming to support market liquidity and attract foreign investors.

This move, focused on Stock Connect trading, reflects Beijing’s efforts to stabilize equities, ease capital flow restrictions, and boost investor confidence amid global economic uncertainty.

Chinese authorities continue rolling out market-friendly policies to enhance long-term capital inflows and strengthen their financial markets.

China Industrial Profits Fall 0.3% Y/Y, PPI Deflation Weighs on Growth

China’s industrial profits declined 0.3% in January-February, improving from a 3.3% drop previously but still extending a three-year downtrend.

With producer price deflation persisting and U.S. tariffs increasing, concerns grow over the outlook for Chinese manufacturers.

Goldman Sachs Sees Upside for China Stocks but Warns of Near-Term Headwinds

Goldman Sachs remains bullish on Chinese equities, citing fundamental upside, but warns of potential profit-taking and renewed geopolitical risks in the coming weeks.

While improving corporate discipline and shareholder returns support long-term growth, investors must navigate macro and policy uncertainties as markets reassess risk sentiment.

UBS: Three Reasons U.S. AI Firms Outperform China’s

UBS analysts favor U.S. artificial intelligence firms over their Chinese counterparts, citing three key advantages:

1. Higher Capital Expenditure – U.S. AI firms invest 20% of revenue vs. China’s 11.7%, ensuring long-term competitiveness.
2. Stronger R&D – Greater spending on research drives more breakthrough innovations.
3. Better Monetization – U.S. companies have clearer paths to turning AI advancements into revenue and profit.

China’s major banks are speeding up (bad) property loan write-offs

• To free up capital and improve balance sheets

• China’s major banks are speeding up property loan write-offs under regulatory pressure to clean up balance sheets and support the broader economy.
• Regulators, including ICBC, have been urged to accelerate the disposal of bad real estate loans—some banks have doubled their write-off targets.
• In 2024, a record ¥3.8 trillion ($532B) in bad assets were removed, with property loans a major contributor.
• While write-offs may free up capital and improve balance sheets, they could also weigh on profits and capital ratios.
• The property sector remains weak, with Fitch expecting non-performing loan (NPL) ratios to stay high at 4–5% this year.
• Analysts view the move as necessary to restore confidence and possibly a sign that the market is nearing a bottom.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1763 (vs. estimate at 7.2728)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBOC injected 218.5bln yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.50%

• 268.5bn yuan mature today
• net drain is 50bn yuan

Trump said he may reduce tariffs on China to help facilitate TikTok US operations sale

• Prospect of reduced tariffs on China

Trump said he may reduce tariffs on China to help facilitate a deal for ByteDance to sell TikTok’s U.S. operations.

• He suggested a small tariff reduction could help get the deal done but noted tariffs are worth more than TikTok overall.
• Trump also indicated he might extend the deadline for the TikTok sale again.

Westpac Sees April RBA Meeting as a ‘Dead Rubber,’ Eyes May Rate Cut

Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold rates steady on April 1, calling it a “dead rubber” meeting.

The bank maintains its forecast for a May rate cut, arguing that the RBA’s February cut wasn’t a signal for consecutive moves. The decision will hinge on March inflation data, where even a small downside surprise could trigger easing.

Japan Warns of “Significant Impact” from New U.S. Tariffs

Japan’s government has raised serious concerns over the latest U.S. tariff measures, warning of risks to economic ties and global trade stability.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said Tokyo is closely monitoring the situation following Trump’s tariff announcement, adding that such broad-based restrictions could have far-reaching economic consequences.

Japan has not outlined specific countermeasures yet but is expected to address the issue diplomatically, particularly given the potential impact on key export sectors like autos and technology.

Analysts believe this development could also derail a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in May.

Tokyo Exchange transport index stocks slammed lower after Trump’s new added 25% tariff

• Tokyo Exchange transport index down more than 2.5%

• Mazda down 5%
• Nissan down 2.5%
• Hino down 2%
• Mitsubishi down 4%

Over in South Korea, Hyundai shares down 3%

Crypto Market Pulse

Dogecoin Volatility Spikes as Trump’s Tariffs Impact Elon Musk-Linked Assets

Dogecoin (DOGE) fell below $0.20, down 2.4% in 24 hours, after Trump’s 25% auto tariff announcement triggered losses across Elon Musk-associated assets, including Tesla stock (-5%).

Market reactions:

• DOGE futures traders liquidated over $200 million, driving open interest below $2 billion.
• DOGE dropped 4% as traders unwound long positions amid uncertainty.
• The 24-hour long/short ratio stands at 0.9673, indicating bearish momentum.
• If DOGE falls below $0.1743, a further decline to $0.15 is possible.

However, a break above $0.20 could shift sentiment and trigger a rebound toward $0.22.

Crypto Market Update: Bitcoin and Ethereum Stabilize Amid Tariff Concerns

The crypto market cap surged $14 billion, hitting $2.83 trillion, despite concerns over Trump’s tariffs.

Bitcoin (BTC) Update:

• Bitcoin price surged 4% early Thursday, briefly touching $88,000 before retracing to $87,000.
• BTC ETFs saw $89.6 million in inflows, marking nine straight days of net positive flows.
• BTC remains above $85,000 for the fourth consecutive day, signaling resilience.

Why did BTC rise?

• Traders shifted capital from US stocks into Bitcoin as a hedge against Trump’s trade policies.
• Tesla’s 5% decline and the S&P 500’s 1.12% drop fueled demand for crypto assets.

Altcoin Market:

• Toncoin (TON), SUI, and PI Coin emerged as top gainers.
• Ethereum (ETH) held above $2,000, providing stability.
• XRP (-4.6%), Solana (-4.3%), and Cardano (-4.5%) saw losses, with capital rotating into mid-cap altcoins.

Notable Crypto News:

• ICE & Circle partner to develop new stablecoin-based financial products.
• GameStop plans a $1.3 billion note offering to buy Bitcoin for treasury reserves.
• US Senate votes to repeal IRS crypto reporting rule, which required DeFi platforms to report user transactions.

GameStop to Raise $1.3B, Plans to Buy Bitcoin

GameStop (GME) will offer $1.3 billion in 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, with a portion allocated for Bitcoin purchases under its investment policy.

This marks another major corporate bet on crypto adoption.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

United States

• Tesla Downgraded: Daiwa Capital Markets slashed its Tesla (TSLA) price target to $300 from $420, citing margin pressure, price cuts, and slowing demand.
• Economic Data: U.S. Q4 GDP was revised up to 2.4%, while pending home sales jumped 2.0% in February. Wholesale inventories rose 0.3%, but jobless claims remained steady at 224K.
• Trade Deficit Narrows: The U.S. goods trade deficit improved to -$147.4B, beating expectations. Exports rose while imports declined, supporting Q1 GDP growth.

Canada

• Auto Tariff Relief Expected: Ontario officials anticipate that the U.S. will ease auto tariffs for Canadian manufacturers after discussions between Premier Doug Ford and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. A formal announcement is expected in early April.

Commodities

• Gold Outlook Raised: Goldman Sachs increased its gold price target to $3,300 for 2025, with an extreme case scenario of $4,200. Strong central bank demand continues to support prices.
• Silver Nears $34: Safe-haven demand surged after Trump’s auto tariffs announcement, pushing silver prices toward $34. Key support sits at $33.20, with potential upside if resistance at $34.87 is breached.

Europe

• Markets in the Red: European indices mostly declined—Germany’s DAX fell 0.77%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.51%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.27%.
• Money Supply Expands: Eurozone M3 money supply rose 4.0% in February, beating expectations and reinforcing a dovish outlook from the ECB.
• Ukraine Accuses Russia of Cease-Fire Violations: President Zelenskyy plans to present evidence to the U.S., which could reignite geopolitical tensions.

Asia

• China Extends Stamp Duty Relief: Offshore trading will remain exempt from stamp duty until 2027, aiming to stabilize markets and attract foreign investors.
• Industrial Profits Fall: January-February industrial profits declined 0.3% year-over-year, an improvement from the previous drop but still concerning amid deflation and trade tensions.
• Japan Warns on Tariffs: The Japanese government expressed concern over U.S. tariffs, highlighting risks to global trade and economic ties. Analysts say this could delay a Bank of Japan rate hike in May.
• UBS on AI: U.S. AI firms outperform China’s due to higher capital expenditure, stronger R&D, and better monetization strategies.

Crypto

• GameStop to Buy Bitcoin: GameStop (GME) will raise $1.3 billion through convertible notes, allocating part of the funds to Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin & Ethereum Hold Strong: BTC briefly hit $88,000 before pulling back to $87,000, maintaining resilience despite tariff concerns.
• Altcoins Mixed: XRP, Solana, and Cardano faced losses, while Toncoin (TON) and SUI led gains.
• Dogecoin Drops: DOGE fell below $0.20, hit by Tesla’s stock decline and Musk-linked asset selloffs.

Markets remain volatile amid trade policy shifts, economic data releases, and geopolitical uncertainties. Investors are watching key developments, including U.S. inflation data and China’s policy moves, for the next market direction.