Daily Market Roundup

North America News

US Equities Close Lower as Tariff Fears Weigh on Market Sentiment

U.S. stocks ended sharply lower as investors braced for Trump’s anticipated announcement on auto tariffs.

• S&P 500: -1.1%
• Nasdaq Composite: -2.0%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): -0.3%
• Russell 2000: -1.8%

The uncertainty around tariff impacts and a cooling in AI-related investments pressured equity markets, with tech stocks bearing the brunt of the sell-off.

US Treasury Auctions $70 Billion in 5-Year Notes at 4.91% High Yield

The US Treasury successfully sold $70 billion in 5-year notes with a high yield of 4.91%, above the 4.095% when-issued level.

• The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.33x, slightly below the six-month average of 2.40x.
• Direct bidders (domestic demand) accounted for 10.97%, below the six-month average of 18.9%.
• Indirect bidders (international demand) took 75.8%, surpassing the average of 69.3%.
• Primary dealers absorbed 13.2%, compared to the average 11.9%.

The higher yield and solid demand from international buyers indicate persistent demand for US debt, despite increased fiscal and trade policy uncertainties.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Holds Q1 Growth Estimate at -1.8%

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model maintained its Q1 2025 growth estimate at -1.8%, unchanged from the previous forecast.

• The report noted a slight decline in gross private domestic investment growth from 9.1% to 8.8%, following data from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors.
• An alternative model adjusted for imports and exports of gold showed a marginally positive 0.2% growth, down from 0.3% previously.

The stagnant GDP forecast reflects a challenging economic landscape marked by weakened consumer spending, increased trade uncertainties, and mixed investment data. The potential for significant tariffs on key trade partners further complicates the growth outlook.

Of note is the last line from the Atlanta Fed, the alternative model forecast adjusted for imports and exports of gold is +0.2%. That is down from 0.3% on March 18.

US Durable Goods Orders Surpass Expectations in February

February durable goods orders rose 0.9%, outperforming the expected -1.0% decline. However, nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft—a key measure of business investment—fell 0.3% versus the expected +0.2%.

• Orders for transportation equipment increased sharply, driving the overall growth.
• The weakness in core capital goods suggests cautious business sentiment amid tariff uncertainty and tightening financial conditions.
• While the headline data signals economic resilience, underlying components point to a more cautious business investment outlook.

US MBA Mortgage Applications Dip Amid Higher Rates and Weaker Refinancing Demand

For the week ending March 21, 2025, US MBA mortgage applications fell 2.0%, following a 6.2% drop the prior week.

• The market index slid to 247.5 from 252.5, while the refinance index decreased to 752.4 from 794.4, reflecting limited refinancing activity.
• Purchase applications ticked up slightly to 155.8 from 154.7, suggesting that buyers are adapting to the 6.71% average 30-year mortgage rate.
• Although the overall decline reflects higher borrowing costs, the marginal increase in purchase applications signals a still-resilient housing demand.

S&P Analysts: U.S. Growth Slowing Amid Shifting Policies

S&P analysts expect U.S. economic growth to slow, forecasting 3.0% inflation for 2025 as tariffs raise domestic supply chain costs.

• The shifting policy landscape, marked by tariffs and tighter fiscal measures, tilts the balance of risks to the downside.
• The report mirrors concerns that U.S. consumers may face diminishing purchasing power and higher living costs.

UBS Predicts S&P 500 Drop to 5,300 as Consumer Fatigue Sets In

UBS strategist Bhanu Baweja has forecasted a potential 8% decline in the S&P 500 to 5,300, citing weakening consumer demand and a slowing economy.

• The bank has downgraded 2025 earnings growth forecasts from 12.5% to 9.5%.
• Tariff-related uncertainties and reduced immigration flows are viewed as long-term structural risks that could weigh on economic momentum.

Fed’ Musalem: Risks that inflation will stall above 2% or move higher has increased

• Comments from St. Louis Pres. Musalem

• Growth does appear to have slowed, surveys point to caution among businesses and consumers
• Patience with current policy appropriate as Fed gathers evidence inflation is returning to target
• Risks that inflation will stall above 2% or move higher in the near term appear to have increased
• Wary of assuming all tariff-related price increases will be temporary; second-round effects could be more persistent
• If labor market remains strong and second round tariff effects become apparent, Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer or consider more restrictive policy
• Baseline is for economy, job market to remain strong, inflation to fall

Fed’s Kashkari: This is the most-dramatic shift in sentiment outside of the covid era

• Kashkari comments

• There is a lot of uncertainty about tariffs
• A lot of the sentiment shift is about tariffs
• It’s conceivable the hit to confidence could be bigger than the tariffs themselves
• The good news is that there are resolutions of trade uncertainty and confidence could be restored
• I take very seriously the hit to confidence, the longer it lasts, the more-meaningful it is
• I’m uncertain about the effects of tariffs

Moody’s Warns of Eroding U.S. Fiscal Strength Amid Rising Debt Costs

Moody’s has cautioned that the U.S. fiscal position is deteriorating due to mounting interest payments, widening deficits, and rising policy uncertainty.

• Interest payments are projected to rise from 9% of federal revenue in 2021 to 30% by 2035, while the debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 130%.
• Moody’s also flagged risks tied to Trump’s proposed global tariff plan, warning that potential trade barriers could damage business confidence and limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates.
• Without major fiscal adjustments, Moody’s sees limited scope for recovery.

Fed’s Goolsbee: We’re no longer on the golden path as seen in the last two years

• Remarks by Chicago Fed president, Austan Goolsbee, to the FT

• We’re now entering into a different chapter
• There’s a lot of dust in the air
• If market-based long-run inflation expectations continue as they have recently, I would view that as a major red flag area of concern
• Must address the situation if investor expectations start to converge to that of households
• Interest rates should be “a fair bit lower” in the next 12-18 months
• But it could take longer for the next rate cut to come to fruition due to economic uncertainty
• “Wait and see” is the correct approach for now but it comes with a cost

Goldman Sachs lowered its Global AI Server shipment volume forecast

This is interesting. Goldman Sachs expects market growth for rack-level AI servers to slow due to factors like the effects of the product transition period, ongoing supply and demand uncertainty, and increasing production complexity.

As a result, it has revised its shipment forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward—from 31,000 units and 66,000 units to 19,000 and 57,000 units, respectively (based on a 144-GPU equivalent).

Alongside this, Goldman Sachs has also reduced its target prices for several Taiwan-based companies in the AI server supply chain.

• demand for high-performance AI Servers will not be completely replaced by rack-level forms
• there is optimism regarding the outlook for AI inference and general Servers, driven by the application of AI technology and the recovery of the upgrade cycle

Canadian Consumer Spending Holds Steady Despite Economic Worries

RBC reported a 0.2% decline in Canadian cardholder spending for February, aligning with the advance retail sales report’s -0.4% figure.

• While discretionary spending fell, spending on essential goods and services remained stable.
• Ontario’s $200 stimulus cheques contributed to the province leading in annual spending growth.
• Restaurant sales remained strong, with bookings still 20% above last year’s levels.

The data suggests that while there is significant economic anxiety in Canada, consumer behavior has yet to show a marked pullback.

BOC Minutes: Tariff Risks Drive Interest Rate Cut

Minutes from the Bank of Canada (BOC) March 12 meeting revealed that policymakers debated leaving rates unchanged but ultimately opted for a 25 bps cut due to tariff risks.

• The BOC acknowledged that new data slightly reduced the risk of lower inflation.
• Officials noted that a rate cut would help Canadians navigate the uncertainty around potential US tariffs.
• There was debate over delaying the rate decision until more clarity on tariffs emerged, but the consensus leaned toward a cautious approach.

The minutes indicate that tariff uncertainties, particularly Trump’s potential April 2 announcement, were a significant factor in the BOC’s decision-making.

Canada Might Face ‘Lower-End’ Tariffs in Trump’s April 2 Rollout

According to the Toronto Star, Canada could fall in the “lower end” of the potential April 2 tariffs, but no exemptions are guaranteed.

• Trump’s tariff plan reportedly involves a tiered system of low, medium, and high tariff levels.
• While specifics remain unclear, the possibility of escalating tariffs could strain trade relations and impact sectors like automotive, agriculture, and raw materials.

Commodities News

Gold Holds Steady at $3,020 Amid Dollar Rebound and Tariff Uncertainty

Gold prices remained relatively flat near $3,019 as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded following reports of a potential announcement on auto tariffs by Trump.

• The Durable Goods Orders for February showed unexpected strength, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious approach to inflation.
• Comments from St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Mussalem and Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari suggested that inflation risks remain elevated.
• With the Fed’s preferred PCE Price Index due later this week, gold investors appear cautious.

Despite ongoing uncertainties, the precious metal remains firmly above the $3,000 mark, providing some support to bullish sentiment.

EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Show Larger-Than-Expected Draw

The EIA weekly crude oil inventories for the week ending March 21 reported a decline of 3.341 million barrels, significantly exceeding the expected drop of 956K barrels.

• Gasoline inventories also fell by 1.446 million barrels, compared to an expected 1.83 million decline.
• Distillate inventories declined 421K barrels, falling short of the forecasted 1.568 million.
• Refinery utilization rose slightly by 0.1%, less than the anticipated 0.5% increase.

WTI crude oil was trading just below $70 per barrel, up 99 cents ahead of the report. The significant draw in crude stocks points to robust demand, but lingering concerns over Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on oil imports from countries purchasing Venezuelan oil, including China, India, and Spain, continue to cloud the market outlook.

Chinese Life Insurance Companies Join Shanghai Gold Exchange, Boosting Gold Demand

Four major Chinese life insurance companies have been granted membership in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, enabling them to purchase gold as part of a pilot program.

• These firms collectively manage nearly ¥13 trillion ($1.8 trillion) in assets. A modest 1% allocation to gold could bring in $17.8 billion of inflows, equivalent to approximately 183 tonnes of gold.
• According to TDS Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali, the increased gold buying could have a significant impact, equivalent to nearly half of the global annual central bank purchases in recent years.
• The move adds to the current bullish sentiment for gold, which has rallied above $3,000 amid strong demand from institutional investors.

Gold Rally Sustains as Institutional Demand Strengthens

Gold prices continue to rally above $3,000 as increased institutional demand from Chinese life insurers supports the market.

• TDS analysts believe the increased buying power from Chinese insurers could add up to 183 tonnes of gold demand, nearly half the average annual global central bank purchases.
• With ongoing geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and global trade uncertainty, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset remains strong.

Copper Prices Hit Record Highs on Tariff Fears — ING

Copper futures on Comex surged to an all-time high of $5.2145 per pound as concerns grew over potential US tariffs on copper imports.

• President Trump instructed the US Commerce Department to investigate whether copper imports threaten national security, triggering a rush to front-run potential tariffs.
• The price disparity between Comex and the London Metal Exchange (LME) has reached a record $1,400/tonne, highlighting arbitrage opportunities.
• Analysts at ING warn that if tariffs are implemented, the global copper market could face tighter supply, potentially pushing prices even higher.

Private Oil Survey Shows Larger-Than-Expected Inventory Draws

A private survey reported the following inventory changes for the week:

• Crude oil: -4.6M barrels (vs. -2.5M expected)
• Gasoline: -3.3M barrels
• Distillates: -1.3M barrels
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): +0.2M barrels
  The larger-than-expected draw in crude inventories suggests stronger demand or tighter supply, possibly impacted by geopolitical tensions and Trump’s proposed oil tariffs.

Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks

• Bloomberg with this

Bloomberg reports that Trump may expedite the timeline for imposing tariffs on U.S. copper imports.

Initially, the Commerce Department was granted 270 days from February 2025 to investigate and report on the potential tariffs. However, recent developments suggest that these tariffs could be implemented within weeks, significantly ahead of the original deadline. ​

This acceleration has led to a surge in U.S. copper imports, with estimates indicating an influx of approximately 500,000 tons—far exceeding the typical monthly average of 70,000 tons. Traders are rushing to import copper before the tariffs take effect, aiming to avoid the anticipated cost increases. ​

The potential tariffs are part of the administration’s broader strategy to bolster domestic copper production, a metal deemed critical for various industries, including electric vehicles, military hardware, and consumer electronics. While the move aims to enhance national production capabilities, it has also introduced volatility in the copper market, with traders attempting to navigate the implications of the impending tariffs. ​

In response to these developments, U.S. companies are exploring alternative sources for copper, considering suppliers from countries like Chile and Peru to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. This shift underscores the broader ramifications of the administration’s trade policies on global supply chains and market dynamics.

Europe News

European Markets Close Mostly Lower Amid Trade Tensions

European markets ended mostly in negative territory as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement.

• Germany’s DAX: -1.14%
• France’s CAC 40: -0.96%
• Spain’s Ibex: -0.39%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.83%
• UK’s FTSE 100 bucked the trend, gaining 0.3%.

Lingering concerns over the implications of tariffs and a slowdown in global economic activity contributed to the sell-off. The UK market outperformed, likely benefiting from its relatively lower exposure to manufacturing and export-driven sectors.

Spain Q4 GDP Growth Confirms Resilience Amid Broader Eurozone Weakness

Spain’s Q4 2024 GDP rose 0.8% quarter-over-quarter, in line with preliminary estimates. For the year, the Spanish economy expanded 3.2%, outperforming struggling counterparts like Germany and France.

• Spain’s robust performance can be attributed to a resilient services sector and strong export growth.
• The steady growth suggests that Spain remains a relative bright spot in the euro area, supported by a healthier labor market and increased foreign investment.

UK February CPI Falls Below Expectations, Easing Inflation Concerns

UK February CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year, missing the 3.0% expected and down from the prior month’s 3.0%. The core CPI, excluding volatile items like food and energy, came in at 3.5% versus 3.6% expected.

• The decline was driven primarily by a slowdown in goods inflation, which fell from 1.0% in January to 0.8% in February.
• However, services inflation remained sticky at 5.0%, posing a challenge for the Bank of England (BOE) as it signals persistent underlying price pressures.
• The data might complicate the BOE’s approach to managing inflation, with policymakers caught between combating sticky inflation and avoiding excessive tightening.

Swiss Investor Sentiment Plummets in March — UBS

Switzerland’s UBS March investor sentiment index dropped sharply to -10.7 from 3.4 previously.

• UBS noted increasing pessimism among investors, driven by concerns over global trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and potential economic slowdown.
• The steep decline in sentiment suggests that investors are increasingly cautious about the outlook for the Swiss economy, despite its historically stable performance.

Politico: EU Tariffs Could Reach 25% Amid Escalating Trade Tensions

According to Politico, the European Union is preparing for a potential 20-25% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S., effective midnight on April 3.

• These tariffs would be additive, stacking on existing tariffs for steel, aluminum, and goods from Venezuela-aligned nations.
• The five targeted industries include automobiles, steel and aluminum, lumber, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
• EU diplomats indicate minimal options for avoiding these tariffs, which the Trump administration views as leverage for broader trade negotiations.

The prospect of steep, comprehensive tariffs adds further strain to already delicate U.S.-EU trade relations, potentially sparking retaliatory measures.

CLICK HERE for story.

UK’s Reeves: We now expect GDP growth of 1.0% this year

• Comments in the budget statement, which says underlying fiscal outlook has deteriorated since October

• Growth recovers to average around 1.75% over the rest of the decade
• OBR: underlying fiscal outlook has deteriorated since October
• if global trade disputes escalate to include 20 pct pt rises in tariffs between the USA and the rest of the world, this could reduce UK GDP by a peak of 1% and reduce current surpluses in the target year to almost zero
• UK finance minister Reeves says to raise extra 1 bln stg by tackling tax evasion
• UK finance minister Reeves says this statement contains no further tax increases
• OBR: Borrowing is projected to be 3.5 billion pounds higher and debt 0.6% of gdp higher at the end of the decade than in our October forecast
• UK’s Reeves: this statement does not contain any further tax increases
• UK’s Reeves: obr forecasts show 2028/29 current budget deficit/surplus of 7.1 bln stg (Oct forecast: 9.3 bln stg surplus)
• OBR forecasts 2029/30 net financial debt 82.7% of GDP (Oct forecast 83.4%)
• OBR forecasts show 2025/26 current budget deficit of 36.1 bln stg (Oct forecast: 26.2 bln stg)
• CPI seen at 3.2% in 2025 vs 2.6% in October
• CPI seen at 2% from 2027 onwards

ECB’s Villeroy: Trump tariffs would have limited impact on euro area inflation

• Remarks by ECB policymaker, Francois Villeroy de Galhau

• A 25% increase in US tariffs in Q2 would have limited impact on euro area inflation
• But it could reduce GDP by 0.3% over the course of the full year
• Trump is destabilising the multi-lateral system
• That increases risks for financial order and also the climate
• Trump’s strategy is “lose-lose” in the short-term as it also harms the US economy

ECB’s Panetta says must remain pragmatic and data-driven in setting policy rate

• Remarks by ECB executive board member, Fabio Panetta, in a letter via the FT

• ECB should now focus more on inflation expectations than estimated neutral level in setting rates
• As inflation falls and rates near neutral, uncertainty becomes more of a problem
• Full transcript (may be gated)

Asia-Pacific & World News

China Urged to Bolster Domestic Consumption Amid Global Challenges

At the Boao Forum, Huang Yiping, an advisor to China’s central bank, stressed the need for reforms to boost domestic consumption.

• With a challenging global environment and rising geopolitical risks, China faces increased pressure to rely on internal demand for growth.
• Structural reforms aimed at increasing household incomes and rebuilding consumer confidence are seen as critical for economic stability.

Morgan Stanley Upgrades China Equities, Sees Structural Shift

Morgan Stanley has upgraded its outlook on Chinese equities, including the MSCI China and Hang Seng indices, raising its year-end targets for the Hang Seng to 24,000 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index to 8,600.

• The bank cites a “structural regime shift,” marked by better corporate discipline, rising shareholder returns, and a shift in index composition to higher-quality sectors.
• Despite geopolitical challenges, Morgan Stanley believes the groundwork for a re-rating has been laid, though a clearer macro recovery and reduced geopolitical risks are needed for a more bullish outlook.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1754 (vs. estimate at 7.2559)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBOC injected 455.4 bln yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.50%

• 295.9bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 159.5bn yuan

Australia’s Monthly CPI Below Expectations, Easing Inflation Concerns

Australia’s February 2025 monthly CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.5% expected and matching January’s figure. The trimmed mean CPI, a measure of core inflation, fell to 2.7% from the previous 2.8%, indicating cooling price pressures.

• The data falls below the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2-3% target range, easing concerns of aggressive rate hikes.
• While monthly figures carry less weight than quarterly data, the January and February prints suggest inflation is stabilizing, offering a favorable outlook ahead of the official quarterly release.

BOJ’s Koeda: We are seeing signs of progress on rising prices alongside wage hikes

• Remarks by newly appointed BOJ policymaker, Junko Koeda

• Various indicators show underlying inflation moving towards 2% inflation sustainably
• Some effects of monetary policy steps appear with a lag
• Want to scrutinise how policy decisions so far could affect the economy
• Neutral rate is an important means in deciding monetary policy
• But need to take into account features of various data, models, and assumptions as well
• Not saying BOJ should rush, or not rush, in raising interest rates

Japan Services Producer Price Index (SPPI) Misses Estimates

Japan’s February 2025 SPPI came in at +3.0% year-over-year, slightly below the +3.1% expected and the previous month’s rate. The month-over-month figure showed no change following a -0.5% drop in January.

• The lower-than-expected SPPI suggests that inflationary pressures in the services sector remain contained, despite broader cost pressures.
• The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will likely monitor these figures closely as it maintains its cautious stance on tightening monetary policy.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says expects underlying inflation to accelerate gradually

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda:

• Japan’s economy recovering moderately albeit with some weaknesses
• Japan’s economy likely to continue growing above potential
• Expect underlying inflation to accelerate gradually
• Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remains high
• Expect to keep raising interest rates if economy, prices move in line with our forecasts made in quarterly outlook report
• Japan’s real interest rate level remains extremely low
• Recent high inflation due largely to lagged effect of past rises in import costs, recent acceleration in food price rises
• Such cost-push factors likely to gradually dissipate
• Underlying inflation likely to gradually converge towards our 2% target even when temporary boost from food inflation disappears
• There is uncertainty on whether food, rice prices will fall but on year-on-year basis, pace of increase likely to slow ahead
• Underlying inflation is still somewhat below 2%
• We have yet to sufficiently achieve our price target
• We will make a judgment call by looking at various indicators, in determining whether underlying inflation has hit our target
• Just looking at single indicator won’t be sufficient in grasping underlying inflation, which indicator to focus on could change gradually during course of time
• If food inflation is temporary, we shouldn’t respond with monetary policy
• If sustained rises in food prices lead to broader inflation, push up service prices, that could lead to wide-ranging inflation that could require raising interest rate
• Japan is shaking off deflationary mindset, but still one step short of seeing wage-inflation cycle kick off in sustainable fashion
• Japan’s short-term, real interest rate currently around -2%
• We are always vigilant to possibility underlying inflation may accelerate at pace faster than we project
• We are making projections, deciding policy to ensure underlying inflation does not accelerate much faster than we project
• There is some room for allowance in our 2% inflation target
• The BoJ has no plan to immediately offload ETF holdings
• Would like to take time examining whether to unload our ETF holdings or not
• Won’t completely rule out option of permanently holding onto our ETF holdings
• I am aware there are various ideas, proposals on what to do with BoJ’s ETF holdings but won’t comment on each of them
• Speaking about interim plan on what to do with BoJ’s ETF holdings, before it is finalised, could have unintended impact on markets

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda again – If prices overshoot will take stronger steps

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda (Headlines via Reuters):

• If price risks overshoot our expectations, we will take stronger steps to adjust degree of monetary support
• Japan’s economy is in state of inflation, when judging from recent movements in CPI
• In judging whether underlying inflation hits 2%, one factor we are looking at is whether recent signs of wage growth continue
• Key factor is whether wage hikes of around 3% are sustained, whether solid outcome so far in this year’s wage talks broadens
• We are also looking at whether wage gains will push up services prices, heighten medium- and long-term inflation expectations
• At our March policy meeting, we saw wage hikes broaden and move in line with our projections made in January
• Wage hikes broadening, but want to scrutinise outcome of wage talks among smaller firms
• If wage hikes continue and improve household income, that is likely to underpin moderate uptrend in consumption
• Must be vigilant to how overseas uncertainties affect consumer confidence
• We are watching FX moves carefully, especially their impact on economy and price developments
• Won’t comment on FX levels

Crypto Market Pulse

Crypto Today: SHIB, DOGE, and PEPE Lead $6B Memecoin Surge as Bitcoin Struggles Below $90K

The cryptocurrency market saw a 1.3% dip in its overall capitalization on Tuesday, slipping to $2.9 trillion. However, the memecoin sector managed to defy the downturn, adding 9.2% in value to surpass a $62 billion market cap.

• Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to maintain momentum, falling 2% to $86,000. Attempts to break the crucial $90,000 resistance have repeatedly failed, triggering a rotation toward altcoins and memecoins.
• Despite Bitcoin’s dip, its ETFs experienced another $26.8 million inflow on Tuesday, marking eight consecutive days of positive net flows totaling $887.47 million since March 14.
• BlackRock’s launch of its first Bitcoin ETF in Europe (IBIT BTC) further boosted market optimism, with net assets valued at $50.8 billion.

Altcoin Market Overview:

Memecoins led the charge, driven by Trump’s endorsement of the TRUMP token, sparking renewed confidence in speculative assets.

• While SUI and Polygon (MATIC) gained 3% and 5%, respectively, major assets like Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Ethereum (ETH) faced losses of 1% to 3%.
• In regulatory news, the SEC closed its investigation into Immutable without charges, signaling a potentially softer stance under the Trump administration.
• Fidelity announced plans to launch a USD-pegged stablecoin and an Ethereum-based share class, further integrating blockchain into traditional finance.

Bitcoin Navigates ‘Death Cross’ Fears Amid Rising Market Cap

The cryptocurrency market’s total capitalization rose 0.5% to $2.89 trillion, its highest level since March 8, though still below the 200-day moving average.

• Bitcoin (BTC) briefly pulled back below $87,000, struggling to breach the critical $90,000 resistance.
• A potential “death cross” — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average — looms, but analysts argue the recent upward trend could mitigate its impact.
• Despite low trading volumes, market sentiment remains bullish.
• BlackRock announced the listing of its iShares Bitcoin ETF on Xetra and Euronext Paris, signaling growing institutional interest.
• Trump’s Truth.Fi initiative partnered with Crypto.com, driving a 40% surge in the exchange’s token, Cronos (CRO).

Analysts caution that while the “death cross” typically signals bearish momentum, the broader outlook remains positive given increased institutional involvement and a favorable liquidity environment.

GameStop to Invest in Bitcoin as a Treasury Reserve Asset

GameStop’s board approved a decision to allocate a portion of its $4.76 billion in cash holdings to Bitcoin, following the lead of companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy.

• The company did not specify the maximum amount of Bitcoin it plans to purchase, leaving room for speculation.
• This move comes as GameStop attempts to pivot its business strategy amidst declining sales and shifting consumer trends.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

U.S. Markets: Tariff Fears and AI Slowdown Pressure Equities

• Equities Slide: U.S. stock indices had a rough session, weighed down by fears of Trump’s auto tariffs and cooling investment in AI. The Nasdaq fell 2%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, and the Russell 2000 lost 1.8%. The Dow Jones managed a modest decline of 0.3%, signaling slightly better resilience.
• Durable Goods Surprise: February durable goods orders rose 0.9%, exceeding the expected -1.0% decline. However, core capital goods orders fell 0.3%, indicating softer business investment.
• Consumer Confidence Drops: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 from a revised 100.1 in February — the lowest in four years, amplifying stagflation concerns.
• Treasuries and Auctions: The 5-year Treasury note auction saw a high yield of 4.910%, attracting strong international demand, with indirect bidders taking 75.8% of the issue.

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Canada: Mixed Signals Amid Tariff Anxiety

• Steady Consumer Spending: Despite growing economic uncertainty, RBC reported only a slight 0.2% drop in February card transactions, indicating resilient consumer spending.
• Tariff Concerns: Reports suggest Canada may face tariffs on the “lower end” of Trump’s planned April 2 tariffs, yet uncertainty persists. The Bank of Canada noted in its minutes that without tariff risks, it would likely have kept rates unchanged.

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Commodities: Oil Slips, Gold Holds Steady

• Oil Pullback: WTI crude oil fell $0.11 to settle at $69.00 per barrel, retreating from a four-day rally. U.S. crude inventories fell 3.34M barrels against expectations of a smaller draw, but new tariffs on Venezuelan oil threaten supply chains.
• Gold Range-Bound: Gold remained flat near $3,020 despite a stronger U.S. Dollar. Traders remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s PCE Price Index, while comments from Fed officials reinforced concerns over stubborn inflation.
• Copper Hits Record: Copper surged to a new all-time high on Comex, closing above $5.21 per pound. Fears of Trump’s tariffs on copper imports, along with Glencore’s supply issues, contributed to the rally.

Europe: Tariff Jitters Weigh on Markets

• Mixed Equities: Most European indices ended lower, with Germany’s DAX down 1.14% and France’s CAC 40 falling 0.96%. The UK’s FTSE 100 bucked the trend, gaining 0.3% amid stronger-than-expected inflation data.
• EU Tariff Threat: Politico reported potential U.S. tariffs of 20-25% on EU goods, set to be announced on April 2. These measures could severely impact key industries, including automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
• Investor Sentiment: Switzerland’s UBS investor sentiment index fell sharply to -10.7 from 3.4, reflecting broader concerns about economic stability in the region.

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Rest of the World: Asia’s Mixed Outlook

• Japan’s Producer Prices: The Services Producer Price Index for February rose 3% year-over-year, slightly missing expectations of 3.1%.
• China’s Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley upgraded its outlook on China’s equities, lifting its year-end Hang Seng target to 24,000 amid improving corporate discipline and rising shareholder returns.
• Australia Inflation: February CPI data came in at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, indicating cooling inflation and potential for more stable monetary policy.

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Cryptocurrencies: Memecoins Shine Amid Market Volatility

• Bitcoin Struggles: BTC dropped 2% to $86,000, failing to breach the crucial $90,000 mark. Despite strong ETF inflows, capital rotation into altcoins and memecoins dampened its momentum.
• Memecoin Surge: Memecoins like SHIB, DOGE, and PEPE added over $6 billion to their market cap, driven by Trump’s vocal support for the TRUMP token.
• Stablecoin Developments: World Liberty Financial confirmed the launch of its USD1 stablecoin, backed by U.S. Dollar reserves, while Fidelity is set to introduce a U.S. Dollar-pegged stablecoin and Ethereum-based share class.
• Regulatory Relief: The SEC cleared Immutable of securities violations, marking a shift toward a more crypto-friendly regulatory approach under Trump-appointed leadership.

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Final Thoughts:

Global markets face significant uncertainties as Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff plan looms. Investors should brace for volatility in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. The evolving regulatory landscape, tightening credit conditions, and geopolitical tensions add layers of complexity to an already fragile economic backdrop.