North America News US Equity Close: Afternoon Dip Gets Bought as Markets Digest Earnings North American equity markets closed mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managing modest gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 lagged. Closing Market Performance: Amazon Reports Solid Q4, But Soft Guidance Pressures Stock Amazon ($AMZN) delivered a strong Q4 performance, but shares dropped 6% after hours as Q1 sales guidance came in below expectations. Key Q4 Results: Q1 2025 Guidance Disappoints: While Amazon saw record holiday sales and continued growth in AWS, investors reacted to softer-than-expected Q1 guidance, which points to slowing revenue growth in early 2025. Pinterest & Cloudflare Earnings – Mixed Reactions Pinterest ($PINS): Despite a revenue beat, Pinterest’s lower-than-expected adjusted net income could temper investor enthusiasm. Cloudflare ($NET): Cloudflare’s revenue exceeded estimates, but weaker-than-expected EPS and continued operating losses may weigh on sentiment. Market Outlook: What’s Next? With earnings season in full swing, investors are focusing on forward guidance more than past results. While Amazon’s holiday quarter was strong, its cautious Q1 outlook has raised concerns about slowing consumer spending. Meanwhile, macro uncertainty and market consolidation remain key themes as equities look for direction. US initial jobless claims 219K versus 213K estimate US January Challenger layoffs 49.79k vs 38.79k prior US Q4 unit labor costs prelim +3.0% vs +3.4% expected Fed’s Goolsbee: First effects of tariffs may be less important than impacts on expectations Treasury’s Bessent: We do want the dollar to be strong Goldman Sachs dismisses bubble concerns over US equity market dominance Goldman Sachs has pushed back against concerns that the dominance of the US equity market, particularly within the technology sector and among a handful of leading companies, signals the formation of a financial bubble. In its latest market commentary, the investment bank argued that the current strength of US equities is not driven by speculative excess or irrational exuberance. Instead, Goldman Sachs attributes the sustained outperformance to solid underlying fundamentals. “The dominance of the US equity market, technology sector, and leading companies does not represent a bubble based on irrational exuberance but is rather a reflection of superior fundamentals,” the bank stated. Goldman highlighted factors such as robust earnings growth, strong balance sheets, and sustained innovation within key sectors as critical drivers of market performance. The bank also pointed to the competitive advantages enjoyed by leading firms, including technological leadership, scalability, and global reach, as reasons for their continued strength. While acknowledging the high valuations in certain parts of the market, Goldman Sachs maintains that these are justified given the growth potential and resilience of the companies involved. Fed’s Jefferson says happy to keep Fed Funds on hold at current rate Canada Ivey January PMI 47.1 vs 54.7 prior Commodities News Gold Prices Retreat as Market Awaits Key Jobs Data Gold prices took a step back on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger US dollar and cautious market sentiment ahead of the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report. With traders locking in profits, the precious metal slipped 0.38% to $2,852 per ounce, pausing its recent upward momentum. Market Sentiment Turns Cautious Investor anxiety crept into the markets as US equity indices dipped, reflecting broader concerns about economic uncertainty. The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China further dampened risk appetite, while a rise in US jobless claims hinted at potential cracks in the labor market. The Labor Department reported that 219,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending February 1, exceeding expectations of 213,000. However, analysts largely dismissed the data, attributing distortions to severe weather conditions and wildfires in Los Angeles. Fed Policy and Gold’s Struggle for Momentum Gold also faced headwinds from dovish remarks by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. While he acknowledged the Fed is in a strong position to implement rate cuts, he emphasized the need for a measured approach due to ongoing policy uncertainties in Washington. This cautious stance kept gold under pressure, preventing it from capitalizing on broader economic concerns. Dollar Strength and Market Expectations The US Dollar Index (DXY) held minor gains, inching up 0.06% to 107.68, adding further resistance to gold’s upside potential. Meanwhile, traders are keeping a close eye on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report, expected to show a slowdown from 256K to 170K jobs in January. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain steady at 4.1%. With money markets currently pricing in 47.5 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, gold’s next move will likely hinge on how the labor market data shapes future monetary policy expectations. EU gas prices strengthen – ING European natural gas prices saw renewed strength yesterday with TTF settling almost 2.7% higher on the day. Forecasts for colder weather have raised concerns that we will see steeper draws in gas storage in the coming days, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes. A pullback in gas prices is due “Speculators also appear to remain supportive towards the market current gas prices leave us deep in with the latest positioning data showing that investment funds increased their net long by 5TWh over the last reporting week to 283TWh. However, with the investment fund long making up more than 31% of total open interest, the position is starting to look a bit stretched.” “In addition, current gas prices leave us deep in the gas-to-coal switching range for the power generation sector, while LNG cargoes should continue to be diverted towards Europe, with European prices trading at a premium to Asia through until the end of the summer. This all suggests we could be due a pullback in the absence of any surprises.” “The latest positioning data also shows that speculators increased their net long yet again in EU allowances (EUAs). Investment funds increased their net long by 2.5k contracts over the week to 55.57k contracts – the largest net long held since September 2021. EUA prices have moved significantly higher this year, breaking above EUR80/t, supported by the strength seen in European

North America News US Markets Rebound as Tech Stocks Lead Gains US stocks shook off early losses on Wednesday, reversing initial weakness following Alphabet’s post-earnings decline. Investor sentiment improved throughout the session, helping major indices close higher across the board. Closing Market Performance: While the session started with muted risk appetite, the turnaround suggests investors remain optimistic about corporate earnings and broader economic resilience. Key Earnings Reports 🔹 Digital Turbine (APPS) – Mixed Results, Raised Guidance CEO Bill Stone highlighted better-than-expected execution and cost-cutting measures, helping the company raise its fiscal 2025 outlook. The company remains focused on advertiser demand and profitability improvements. 🔹 Ford (F) – Strongest Revenue Year in History Ford Model e (EV segment) remained unprofitable, reporting a $5.1B EBIT loss for 2024, but the Ford Pro division (commercial vehicles) delivered $9.0B EBIT, marking a 15% revenue increase YoY. Management noted higher dividends for 2025 and a strong cash position, reinforcing Ford’s long-term transformation strategy despite headwinds in the EV sector. 🔹 Arm Holdings (ARM) – Record Quarterly Revenue Arm outperformed on earnings and revenue, driven by AI chip demand and expanding cloud computing partnerships with Nvidia, AWS, and Microsoft. The company raised full-year guidance, reinforcing its leadership in AI infrastructure. 🔹 Qualcomm (QCOM) – Beats Estimates, Strong Handset Growth Qualcomm reported strong handset sales, reaffirming its $22B non-handset revenue target by 2029. The company forecasted strong Q2 results, signaling stability in the semiconductor sector. US January ADP employment +183K vs +150K expected “We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.” US January ISM services 52.8 vs 54.3 expected Comments in the report: US S&P Global final January services PMI 52.9 vs 52.8 prelim US international trade deficit for December $-98.4B vs $-96.6 billion Details from the BEA Exports of goods decreased $7.5 billion to $170.2 billion in December. Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $6.7 billion. Net balance of payments adjustments decreased $0.8 billion. Exports of services increased $0.4 billion to $96.3 billion in December. Imports of goods increased $11.4 billion to $293.1 billion in December. Imports of goods on a Census basis increased $11.3 billion. Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.1 billion. Imports of services increased $1.0 billion to $71.8 billion in December. What were the surpluses/deficits by country: Surpluses (in billions of dollars): Deficits (in billions of dollars): Some highlights: Treasury refunding announcement shows most auction sizes unchanged for several quarters US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 31 January +2.2% vs -2.0% prior Fed’s Goolsbee: Ignoring supply chain impacts, like tariffs, would be a mistake Fed’s Barkin: There is a wide range of outcomes from tariffs Fed’s Jefferson says there is no need to hurry further rate cuts Canada S&P Global January services PMI 49.0 vs 48.2 prior Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Canada’s services economy experienced concurrent falls in both business activity and new work during January to signal another month of subdued sector performance. Panellists continued to note soft underlying market demand, with uncertainty weighing on business decisions. This may reflect ongoing unease over the impact of possible tariffs being applied on Canadian goods and services exported to the United States, and indeed this was cited as a real concern by service providers themselves. Whilst firms are looking to lower interest rates to help stimulate growth, tariff worries ensured that confidence amongst panellists remained well below trend. Commodities News Silver Gives Up Gains Following Strong US Jobs Data Silver prices erased most of their intraday gains on Wednesday, retreating toward $32.00 after the release of better-than-expected US private employment data for January. The strong labor market has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, exerting pressure on precious metals like silver. US Private Employment Data Surpasses Estimates According to the latest ADP Employment Change report, 183,000 new private-sector jobs were added in January, significantly exceeding market expectations of 150,000 and the previous revised figure of 176,000. The data underscores persistent labor market strength, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate adjustments. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that any monetary policy shifts would only occur once there’s tangible progress on inflation or a clear weakening of the labor market. Strong Dollar Pressures Silver Prices Following the employment report, the US Dollar Index (DXY) attempted a rebound from 107.40, trimming its earlier losses. A stronger US dollar generally dampens silver’s appeal, making it more expensive for foreign investors. Trade War Fears Ease, Silver Sentiment Weakens Investor sentiment toward silver has also been affected by diminishing concerns over a global trade war. While tensions between the US and China persist, the market interprets Trump’s tariff policies as more of a negotiation strategy rather than a full-scale economic conflict. Silver’s Outlook: What’s Next? With interest rates expected to stay higher for longer, silver may continue to face headwinds in the short term. Investors are closely watching the Fed’s next moves, as monetary policy shifts will play a critical role in determining precious metal trends in the coming months. US crude oil futures settled at $71.03 US crude oil futures are settling at $71.03. That is down $1.67 or -2.3%. Oil: Trump signing a directive to increase economic pressure on Iran – ING There were two key factors influencing oil prices yesterday, firstly downward pressure came from China announcing retaliatory tariffs against the US, which included targeting US energy flows. However, countering this later in the session was President Trump signing a directive to increase economic pressure on Iran by enforcing sanctions more strictly and so putting a large share of Iranian oil exports at risk, ING’s commodity expert Warren Patterson notes. US stance on Iran makes the market claw back the losses “On China’s retaliatory tariffs, US crude oil and LNG were included, with a 10% and 15% tariff, respectively. However, with these tariffs

North America News Market Recap: Stocks Reverse Losses, Led by Nasdaq & Russell 2000 After a rough trading day yesterday, U.S. stocks bounced back strongly as investors piled into risk assets. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 led the charge, erasing previous losses. Major Indices: Tech and growth stocks outperformed, with investors shrugging off macroeconomic concerns for now. Big Gainers: Alphabet (GOOGL) Earnings Breakdown Google’s parent company missed revenue expectations, dragging its stock down 6% after hours despite an earnings beat. Key Financials: Takeaways: Chipotle (CMG) Q4 Earnings: Chipotle’s Guidance: JOLTS job openings 7.600M vs 8.000M estimate Details: US December factory orders -0.9% vs -0.7% expected Fed’s Daly: The economy is in a very good place Fed’s Goolsbee sees risks that inflation could tick back up Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke in a radio interview, Headlines via Reuters: Trump is planning a US sovereign wealth fund In brief: Bullard – inflation will slow markedly this year, allowing lower Fed interest rates Trump will pause tariffs on Canada for 30 days Canada’s PM Trudeau: Commodities News Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build larger than expected Trump expected to sign executive order restoring ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran  This should be bullish for oil, which was down 3% today before the report. The official cited said the order is aimed at denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon and countering Iran’s ‘malign influence’. The official said the pressure includes sanctions and enforcement mechanisms for those violating existing sanctions. The order says the Secretary of State will modify or rescind existing sanctions waivers and cooperate with the Treasury to implement a campaign “aimed at driving Iran’s oil exports to zero”. WTI has bounced about $1.20 in very short order on this. ICYMI on Oil – U.S. shale industry and Saudi Arabia tell Trump they won’t boost output The Wall Street Journal is gated, but if you can access it, the story is here: U.S. Frackers and Saudi Officials Tell Trump They Won’t Drill More In brief: Europe News European equity close: Spain, Italy and France lead with strong gains Asia-Pacific & World News China anti-monopoly regulator launches investigation into Google There’s no details on the investigation as China’s anti-monopoly regulator just issues a statement that they will be launching a probe into Google “for suspected violation of the country’s anti-monopoly law”.  China announces counter-tariffs against Trump’s trade moves At the same time, they’re also announcing that export controls will be implemented on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium-related materials. These ones will go into effect starting from today.  Financial Times: China’s exporters to step up offshoring to beat Trump’s tariffs The Financial Times is gated, but here is the link if you can access it https://www.ft.com/content/71950f26-8272-4710-b3cc-72ad1007d77f In brief: Other strategies include: Australian consumer confidence hit a 32-month high at 88.5 (prior 86.0) ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence weekly survey. Consumer confidence rose 2.5 points last week to 88.5 points ANZ comment: Forecast for 100bp of Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts in 2025 A note from Westpac argues that confidence that the RBA will start cutting rates at its February 18 Board meeting is expected to remain steady this week. Westpac still predicts 100 basis points of cuts in 2025, with market expectations slightly less aggressive, pricing in just over 3.5 cuts. New Zealand GDT Price Index +3.7% Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says aiming for 2% inflation on a sustainable basis Crypto Market Pulse David Sacks: The feasibility of a bitcoin reserve is being studied Shiba Inu Shows Signs of Rally After UAE Blockchain Partnership Shiba Inu (SHIB) saw a modest uptick on Tuesday following the announcement of a landmark partnership with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure (MOEI). The collaboration aims to integrate blockchain into energy and infrastructure operations, marking what the Shiba Inu team claims is the first time a world government has adopted blockchain at a federal level. Key Highlights of the UAE Partnership SHIB Market Reaction: Signs of a Potential Rebound Growing Government Interest in Blockchain This partnership underscores the increasing government adoption of digital assets and blockchain technology. As more nations explore decentralized technology, projects like Shiba Inu could see greater real-world utility and adoption, providing a long-term bullish catalyst. While SHIB remains in a downtrend, its strategic expansion into government-backed Web3 initiatives could position it for a stronger recovery in the coming months. The Day’s Takeaway Day’s Takeaways: Key Market Insights The markets bounced back strongly today, led by the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, as investors reversed yesterday’s losses and piled into tech and growth stocks. Despite Alphabet’s post-earnings drop, sentiment remained bullish across sectors. Big Picture: ✔️ Tech Stocks Led the Rally: Nasdaq jumped 1.35%, driven by AI, chips, and cloud stocks.✔️ Alphabet Earnings Disappointed: Revenue miss dragged GOOGL down 6% after hours.✔️ Bitcoin and Ethereum Show Volatility: BTC rebounded past $100K, while ETH faces downside risks.✔️ Gold Hits All-Time High: Trade war concerns pushed gold to $2,845.✔️ Shiba Inu Gains on UAE Partnership: Blockchain adoption fuels SHIB optimism. Macro & Crypto Shift: Final Word: Markets remain bullish but macro risks loom, with tariffs, interest rates, and crypto regulation being key factors to watch. Big tech earnings, crypto trends, and institutional moves on Bitcoin will shape the next leg of market action.

North America News Major US Indices Start the Week in the Red, NASDAQ Leads Declines US stock markets kicked off the week with broad losses, led by a sharp decline in the NASDAQ index (-1.20%) as tech stocks faced selling pressure. The Russell 2000 also posted a steep decline of -1.28%, reflecting weakness in small-cap stocks. Market Performance Overview Earnings Highlight: Palantir Surges on Strong Results After the market closed, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) announced better-than-expected Q4 earnings of $0.14 per share, beating estimates of $0.11. The company also reported $827.5 million in revenue, well above the forecasted $780 million. Palantir shares surged 15.12% to $96.31 in after-hours trading, as investors reacted positively to the earnings beat and strong revenue growth. US January ISM manufacturing 50.9 vs 49.8 prior Comments in the report: US January final S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs 50.1 prior Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “A new year and a new President has brought new optimism in the US manufacturing sector. Business confidence about prospects for the year ahead has leaped to the highest for nearly three years after one of the largest monthly gains yet recorded by the survey. Over the past decade, only two months during the reopening of the economy from pandemic lockdowns have seen business sentiment improve as markedly as recorded in January. “Manufacturers report that political uncertainty has cleared and the pro-business approach from the new administration has brightened their prospects. Production has already improved after falling throughout much of the last half of 2024, amid rising domestic sales. Factories have also stepped up their hiring to meet planned growth of production capacity. “However, a rise in the rate of increase of both input costs and selling prices could become a concern if this intensification of inflationary pressures is sustained in the coming months, especially as the combination of higher price pressures alongside accelerating economic growth and rising employment is not typically conducive to cutting interest rates.” US construction spending for December 0.5% versus 0.2% estimate Private Construction (Dec 2024): $1,688.5B (+0.9% MoM) Private Construction (Full-Year 2024): $1,661.7B (+5.6% YoY) Public Construction (Dec 2024): $503.6B (-0.5% MoM) Public Construction (Full-Year 2024): $492.7B (+9.3% YoY) Fed’s Collins: Big tariffs will push up price levels, could also have second-round impacts On CNBC: Fed’s Bostic: Businesses are not confident in their outlook at this point Trump: China tariffs were an opening salvo Trump signed an Executive Order to create a sovereign wealth fund. Trump confirms that Mexican tariffs will be paused, says negotiations will start “I just spoke with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. It was a very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States. These soldiers will be specifically designated to stop the flow of fentanyl, and illegal migrants into our Country. We further agreed to immediately pause the anticipated tariffs for a one month period during which we will have negotiations headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and high-level Representatives of Mexico. I look forward to participating in those negotiations, with President Sheinbaum, as we attempt to achieve a “deal” between our two Countries.” WH economic council director says Trump will decide what he will or won’t call off Canada January S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.6 vs 52.2 prior Commenting on the latest survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “January’s survey highlighted the complex impact that possible US tariffs are presently having on the Canadian manufacturing economy. Firms noted that clients in some instances were bringing forward their orders to get ahead of these potential tariffs, and output amongst manufacturers was being raised in response. Firms even took on additional staff to help service additional workloads, and this helped them to keep on top of their current orders. “However, the threat of tariffs from the US is leading to a huge amount of uncertainty in product markets, and firms are growing increasingly concerned about a potential trade war with a key trading partner. Subsequently, confidence in the outlook dropped quite noticeably in January, whilst growth rates for both output and new orders deteriorated since the end of 2024.” Bank of Canada will implement six consecutive quarter-point interest rate cuts Bank of Montreal (BMO) has revised its outlook for Canadian interest rates in response to the economic impact of Trump’s 25% tariff. This shift in expectations reflects concerns about the potential fallout from heightened trade tensions, which could dampen economic growth, disrupt supply chains, and increase costs for Canadian businesses and consumers. BMO’s updated forecast suggests that the Bank of Canada will adopt a more aggressive easing cycle to counteract these headwinds, support domestic demand, and mitigate the risk of an economic slowdown. The anticipated rate cuts are also expected to influence the Canadian dollar, potentially putting downward pressure on the currency, while providing some relief to borrowers through lower lending costs. BMO’s outlook underscores the growing uncertainty in the global economic landscape and the need for a more accommodative monetary policy to navigate potential challenges ahead. Persistent Trump tariffs mean a minus 5% hit to Canada’s economy, Mexico -8%, US -1% Analysts at US-based investment bank Piper Sandler with the estimated negative hits to economies over a year of Trump’s tariffs: Senior Republican Senator Mitch McConnell spoke with US TV show ’60 Minutes’: Commodities News Gold Surges to Record High as US Tariffs Drive Safe-Haven Demand Gold prices soared to a new all-time high on Monday, climbing 0.87% to $2,821, as investors sought safety amid heightened trade tensions. The US government’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China fueled market uncertainty, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic instability. Market Reaction: Gold Holds Gains Despite Improved Sentiment Despite a slight improvement in market mood, gold maintained its strong gains, reflecting ongoing concerns over the long-term impact of tariffs. The

North America News S&P Hits New Intraday High but Falls Short of Record Close Amid Mixed Market Movements The major US stock indices posted gains on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive day of upward momentum for the broader market. However, while the S&P 500 achieved a new intraday high of 6,100.81, it failed to close at a record level, settling just below its all-time high. Key Market Performance S&P 500: Record Intraday High, But No Close Above 6,090 The S&P 500 briefly touched an intraday high of 6,100.81, setting a new peak for the index. However, it fell short of closing above the record 6,090.27 level, reflecting some hesitation among investors despite the broader market rally. Sector and Stock Highlights Oracle Extends Gains Oracle shares soared another +6.75% following a +7.17% rally the previous day. Investor optimism surrounding its cloud computing business continues to boost the stock. Outlook While the broader market showed strength, the inability of the S&P 500 to close at a new high indicates lingering caution among investors. With mixed performance across sectors, the focus remains on upcoming economic data and earnings reports, which will determine whether the indices can sustain their upward trajectory. The NASDAQ’s breakthrough above 20,000 and the S&P’s near-record performance highlight robust momentum, but headwinds remain, particularly for small caps, as reflected by the Russell 2000’s decline. Investors will watch for further clarity in market drivers to gauge the potential for sustained gains. US sells 20-year notes at 4.900% vs 4.911% WI US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 17 January +0.1% vs +33.3% prior Morgan Stanley: What we expect from the January FOMC Key Points: Conclusion: Morgan Stanley projects no rate change at the January FOMC meeting but expects upgraded labor market language and a focus on inflation progress. The Fed may hint at a March cut while signaling a shift in balance sheet policies, adding nuance to its monetary stance. Meta expands wearable tech lineup with Smart Glasses, AI-Enhanced devices to rival Apple Meta Platforms is advancing its wearable technology offerings, including Oakley-branded smart glasses designed for athletes. UBS CEO sees sticky inflation, tariff risks – “don’t see rates coming down as fast” UBS CEO Ermotti spoke with CNBC on Tuesday, saying he sees rates not coming down as quickly as the market is expecting: More at that link above. Trump says talking about a 10% tariff on China Infor via Reuters, Trump: Trump announces AI project – Stargate to build infrastructure, beginning immediately Trump announces AI project – says will help out through emergency declarations. Oracle Chairman Ellison at the announcement: Canada December producer price index +0.2% vs +0.6% expected Commodities News Gold Prices Soar Amid Heightened US Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Uncertainty Gold hits new 2025 highs as safe-haven demand surges in response to escalating trade policies and geopolitical developments. Gold prices surged to fresh 2025 highs, signaling robust safe-haven demand despite strength in the US Dollar Index. The yellow metal climbed above the critical $2,650 mark late in the North American trading session, reaching $2,755 at the time of writing. Earlier in the session, gold had bounced from a low of $2,741 as investors digested a confluence of geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Geopolitical Unrest Fuels Gold’s Rally Geopolitical tensions are on the rise, with President Donald Trump broadening his trade rhetoric beyond traditional targets like China, Canada, and Mexico to include the Eurozone. Additionally, ongoing instability in the Middle East and potential US economic actions against Russia have added to market anxiety. These factors have pushed gold prices to their highest levels of the year, with buyers eyeing the all-time high of $2,790. President Trump recently made waves on his Truth account, stating that he had invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war and warned of potential sanctions, tariffs, and taxes on Russian goods should the conflict persist. His remarks contributed to heightened investor uncertainty, further bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Market Dynamics: US Yields and Trade Policy Impact Gold’s rise comes alongside a modest increase in real yields, with the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield inching up to 2.18%. While higher yields typically weigh on non-yielding assets like gold, the metal’s gains reflect investor concerns over broader market conditions. President Trump also confirmed the potential for universal tariffs on all US imports, a development that could have far-reaching economic implications. “Trump’s slightly less hawkish stance on tariffs compared to earlier fears has eased some inflationary pressures, which markets interpret as a sign of possible rate cuts,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader quoted by Reuters. Fed Rate Cut Speculation Adds Fuel to Gold’s Momentum Market participants are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with near-even odds of two reductions by the end of 2025. Many anticipate the first cut to occur as early as June, a scenario that further supports gold’s upward trajectory. Outlook: Gold Poised to Test Record Highs With a backdrop of intensifying trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and shifting monetary policy expectations, gold remains a favored asset among investors seeking stability. As the metal trades just shy of its record high, its strong performance underscores its role as a hedge against economic and geopolitical turmoil. Gold’s ascent in 2025 reflects the interplay of complex market forces, with the yellow metal standing out as a beacon of safety in an increasingly uncertain global landscape. Crude oil settles at $75.44 The price of crude oil has settled at $75.44. That is down -$0.39 or -0.51% on the day. The price is now down -6.60% from the high on January 15 at $80.73. The low price today reached $75.31. The high was at $76.42. Looking at the daily chart, the price is approaching the 200 day MA at $75.07. If the price can move below and stay below that MA, the sellers would be more in control technically. Europe News European equity close: FTSE 100 fades to finish at the lows, ending 5-day winning streak ECB’s Lagarde: We’re not overly concerned

North America News S&P 500 Hits Record Close as Major Indices End at Session Highs The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high on Thursday, capping off a day of strong market performance across major indices. The broad-market benchmark rose 32.34 points (+0.53%) to end at 6,118.73, surpassing its previous record close of 6,099.97 set on December 6. This marked a significant milestone for the index, which also hit an intraday high of 6,118.73. Key Market Highlights Sector and Stock Performances The US treasury auctions $20B of 10 year TIPS at a high yield of 2.243% US initial jobless claims 223K vs 220K estimate Trump: Zelensky told me he’s ready to make a deal Trump said earlier today that he wants the war in Ukraine to end. Reuters also had an interesting report today citing “five sources with knowledge of the situation” that Putin is concerned about distortions in Russia’s wartime economy. That has contributed to the view within a section of the Russian elite that a negotiated settlement to the war is desirable, according to two of the sources familiar with thinking in the Kremlin. There is also this line: Putin believes key war goals have already been met, including control of land that connects mainland Russia to Crimea, and weakening Ukraine’s military, said one of the sources familiar with thinking in the Kremlin. Highlights: Trump’s speech from Davos as he comments on crypto and tariffs Bitcoin rallied on his comment about being the world capital of crypto. Trump is taking questions after his speech: Trump will sign an executive order related to AI (and crypto) We will await the details but an aide cited by Reuters said one of the orders is in regards to establishing a commission on science and technology. Update: President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order establishing a Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets to develop a framework for crypto. Canada November retail sales 0.0% vs +0.2% expected Canadian retail sales painting a mixed picture in today’s report with November disappointing but the advance December numbers showing a strong climb. After a flat reading in November, the advanced December reading was up 1.6%. Tesla is increasing prices in Canada Tesla Canada prices on the rise, from February 1: Stellantis says its not moving 1500 jobs from Canada to the US A report on Bloomberg TV claimed that car maker Stellantis will move 1,500 jobs from Canada to the US Stellantis in both Canada and the US have said this is not correct. Commodities News Crude oil settled at $74.62 The price of crude oil is settling at $74.62. That is down $0.82 or -1.09% on the day. Technically, the price fell below its 200-day moving average at $75.01 going back to January 8, the high price stalled against that level and then broke above it on January 10. The last two days have seen buyers lean against the MA level. EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -1017K vs -1645K Saudi Arabia Aims to Boost U.S. Investments by $600 Billion Saudi Crown Prince Discusses Trade Expansion with President Trump Europe News European shares close higher led by Spain’s Ibex Eurozone January flash consumer confidence -14.2 vs -14.2 expected France January business confidence 95 vs 94 prior UK January CBI trends total orders -34 vs -35 expected ECB’s Escriva: We still have restrictive policy Asia-Pacific & World News China says willing to work with US to promote stable development of trade ties China to channel “hundreds of billions of yuan” annually from insurers into equities China has unveiled a major initiative to channel hundreds of billions of yuan annually from state-owned insurers into equities, marking the latest effort by authorities to stabilize and support the country’s stock markets. Wu Qing, head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), announced that in the first half of 2025, insurers will be required to invest at least 100 billion yuan ($13.75 billion) in long-term stock holdings. The initiative extends beyond direct investments, with fund managers encouraged to expand equity fund offerings, reduce fund sales fees, and promote exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to attract more capital into the market. PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1708 (vs. estimate at 7.2896) PBOC injects 480 billion yuan via 14-day reverse repos at 1.65% 340bn yuan mature today PBOC says it’ll provide liquidity tools to fund share purchases “at proper time” An official at the People’s Bank of China has gotten in line with supportive comments today China official says insurance firms still have room to increase their market investment China vice finance minister Chinese official says 100s of billions of yuan to flow into shares every year from pensions The head of China’s securities regulator (Chairman of the CSRC Wu Qing) says New Zealand to ease foreign investment rules in bid to boost economy New Zealand will loosen foreign investment regulations to attract international capital, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced on Thursday (New Zealand time). The move is part of his government’s strategy to stimulate economic growth and create jobs amid a weakened economy. The country slipped into recession in the third quarter of 2024, with economic activity contracting more than expected. In his State of the Nation address, Luxon outlined plans to establish Invest New Zealand, a new initiative within the government’s international economic development agency, designed as a one-stop shop for foreign investors. Luxon: Japanese December exports smash higher than expectations – but not imports Japan’s December exports rose 2.8% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Finance (MOF), exceeding the poll forecast of +2.3%. Japan’s December imports increased 1.8% year-on-year, below the poll estimate of +2.6% Japan recorded a December trade surplus of 130.9 billion yen, significantly outperforming the expected 53.0 billion yen deficit Japan’s December exports to Asia grew 5.8% year-on-year South Korea Q4 economy suffered from weak consumer & business spending, political turmoil The Wall Street Journal (gated) has followed up with a summary. High(low)lights: South Korean Q4 2024 economic growth has come in weaker than