North America News
Late-Day Reversal Erases Stock Gains as Dow Sinks on UnitedHealth Collapse
US stocks tumbled late Thursday, giving up earlier gains. The Dow plunged 527 points, dragged down by a 22% collapse in UnitedHealth after slashing its outlook. The S&P 500 barely finished positive, while the Nasdaq slipped slightly.
Despite the headline drop in the Dow, broader market participation was strong:
- Equal-weighted S&P 500: +0.7%
- Russell 2000: +0.9%
- S&P MidCap 400: +0.8%
Positive earnings from Eli Lilly helped cushion the broader market, while Alphabet declined after a federal ruling deemed it monopolistic in ad tech.
Yields edged higher on the day, but the 10-year fell for the week to 4.33%.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Still Forecasts -2.2% Q2 Growth
The latest update from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model shows no change in its Q2 2025 forecast, which remains at -2.2% growth. The alternative GDP estimate, which adjusts for gold trade flows, also holds steady at -0.1%.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.2 percent on April 17, unchanged from April 16 after rounding. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold is -0.1 percent. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real residential fixed investment growth decreased from 3.7 percent to 2.9 percent.
Mortgage Rates Edge Up to 6.83%, Mid-Range for 2025 So Far
Freddie Mac reports the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 6.83% for the week of April 17, up from 6.62% the previous week.
This rate sits near the midpoint of 2025’s range, with highs around 7.04% and lows near 6.6%. Elevated borrowing costs continue to weigh on housing affordability.
US Weekly Jobless Claims Dip to 215K, Beating Forecasts
Initial jobless claims fell to 215,000 last week, better than the 225,000 estimate.
- Prior week revised up to 224K
- 4-week moving average: 220.75K
- Continuing claims: 1.885 million (above 1.872M estimate)
- 4-week average continuing claims: 1.867 million
The labor market remains firm, with claims still hovering near historic lows despite broader economic uncertainty.
US March Housing Starts Miss Expectations at 1.324M
New home construction slowed in March, with housing starts totaling 1.324 million—well below the 1.420 million forecast.
- Previous month: revised down to 1.494M
- Building permits came in stronger at 1.482M (expected 1.446M)
High borrowing costs continue to cap housing activity, but overall levels remain within the recent two-year range.
Philly Fed Index Plunges to -26.4 in April
The Philly Fed manufacturing index collapsed to -26.4 in April, far below expectations for +2.0 and a sharp reversal from last month’s +12.5.
Breakdown:
- New orders: -34.2 (prior 8.7)
- Employment: 0.2 (prior 19.7)
- Shipments: -9.1 (prior 2.0)
- Average workweek: -12.7 (prior 8.7)
- Prices paid: 51.0 (up from 48.3)
The report paints a grim picture of regional manufacturing, with order books drying up and labor demand stalling.
Trump Considers Replacing Fed Chair Powell, Eyes Kevin Warsh as Successor
President Trump is seriously weighing the idea of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Trump has reportedly spoken to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about the top job. Warsh is said to have discouraged the idea of removing Powell early but appeared open to taking over once the current term ends.
While no decision has been finalized, discussions have been ongoing for months. Some Trump advisers argue that legal safeguards might not be enough to stop a forced ouster, though others like Bessent have pushed back against replacing Powell.
Freight Sector Braces for Impact as Trade Slows to a Crawl
The freight industry is flashing red as shipping volumes collapse. Craig Fuller, founder of FreightWaves, described the situation as “calm before the storm,” saying the trucking sector is weakening fast with import/export volumes falling off a cliff.
Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson echoed the warning, noting that two of his US clients have already sold their businesses to Chinese factories due to tariff pressure. He cautioned that without a major policy shift, the US could see “thousands, even millions” of small businesses wiped out—some of them household names.
US Treasury Schedules Auctions for Notes and Bills Next Week
The Treasury will roll out its regular auctions next week, covering 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes along with short-term bills. All issuance amounts are in line with expectations.
Auction schedule:
- April 21 (Mon): $76B 13-week bills, $68B 26-week bills
- April 22 (Tue): $69B 2-year notes, $70B 6-week bills
- April 23 (Wed): $70B 5-year notes, $30B 2-year FRNs
- April 24 (Thu): $44B 7-year notes
US-Japan Trade Deal May Be Close, Fueling Market Optimism
The White House may soon unveil a trade agreement with Japan, according to Fox Business. Sources close to the talks say momentum is building and that an announcement could come shortly—though exact timing remains fluid.
“We’re in a great place,” said one unnamed official. Easter holidays may delay final signatures, but the tone from Washington has been upbeat. Japanese sources, however, are more cautious about the deal’s readiness.
Markets responded positively to the report, which helped lift stocks earlier in the session.
Fed’s Williams: No Urgency to Adjust Rates, Tariffs Pose Inflation Risk
New York Fed President John Williams sees no near-term need to change interest rates. In comments to Fox Business, he said monetary policy is currently well-positioned. However, he acknowledged that new tariffs will likely push inflation higher while weighing on economic growth this year.
Anna Paulson Named Philadelphia Fed President, Takes Over in July
Anna Paulson, head of research at the Chicago Fed, will take the helm at the Philadelphia Fed on July 1, replacing Patrick Harker. She will become a voting FOMC member in 2026.
Background:
- Ph.D. from University of Chicago
- Specialist in financial markets, especially insurance
- Joined the Chicago Fed in 2001, promoted to research director in 2019
- Former professor at Northwestern’s Kellogg School
Paulson has a strong academic and policy track record and brings deep research experience to the role.
Trump Goes After Powell Again, Slams Fed Over Rates
Donald Trump reignited his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, posting on Truth Social that Powell is “always too late and wrong.”
He repeated his long-held view that interest rates should have been cut sooner and called for Powell’s removal. Powell’s current term ends in May 2026, but political pressure from Trump continues to mount ahead of the election.
Ford Warns Vehicle Prices Could Rise from May Due to Tariffs
Ford has notified dealers that pricing on new vehicles built from May could increase if U.S. auto tariffs remain in effect.
- The existing nationwide discount program runs through June 2.
- Price adjustments, if any, would hit consumers starting July.
- Inventory already at dealerships will not be affected.
- While 80% of Ford’s U.S. sales are domestically produced, rising input costs could still drive up pricing.
United Airlines Flags Softening Demand Among Budget Travelers
United Airlines’ shares initially popped after Q1 earnings but lost momentum as investor focus shifted to cautious consumer commentary.
Key takeaways from executives:
- CEO Scott Kirby pointed to a weaker economic backdrop hurting demand.
- Domestic main cabin revenue per seat mile dropped 5% y/y.
- Demand from premium customers held steady, but middle-class travelers pulled back.
- The airline has issued two sets of forward guidance, including one scenario based on a recession.
United acknowledged that a small shift in bookings can sharply affect profitability due to high fixed costs.
Fed’s Schmid says agricultural sector very nervous about tariffs
- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid.
- There’s a lot of nervousness in the agricultural sector from tariffs
- I’m an optimist, need to be patient to see how it plays out
- We will react to disruptions that might affect mandates
- Politicians and the public seem to be pleased with Fed independence and its structure
Commodities News
Gold Pulls Back from Record Highs as Trade Talks Lift Dollar
Gold cooled off after setting a new record at $3,358, retreating to around $3,290 during Thursday’s session. The pullback came amid positive signs from US trade negotiations with Japan and Mexico, easing global market fears.
President Trump’s remarks highlighted strong progress in bilateral talks, while his push to keep China on the back foot keeps tensions alive. The trade standoff, now framed more as a power contest than tariff tit-for-tat, continues to support safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, the US dollar staged a modest rebound from a multi-year low, buoyed by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said the economy remains solid and policy changes aren’t imminent.
Technically, gold remains in an uptrend but faces near-term resistance from a firmer dollar and mild profit-taking.
US Adds 2 Oil Rigs, Canada Sheds 4 as North American Drilling Diverges
Baker Hughes reported that the US rig count rose by 2 to 585 this week. Oil and gas rigs each added one, while miscellaneous rigs were unchanged.
Compared to last year, the US count is down 34 rigs. Offshore rigs held steady at 13, which is 7 fewer than the same time last year.
Canada moved in the opposite direction, dropping 4 rigs to 134. All of the decline came from oil rigs, now at 87. However, Canada is still running 7 more rigs than it did a year ago, thanks to earlier oil-focused expansion.
Silver Slips Toward $32.50 as Dollar Finds Support on Trade Optimism
Silver prices dropped sharply to around $32.50 in early Thursday trade, pausing a 10-day rally. The pullback comes as the US dollar found fresh bids on signs of progress in US-Japan trade negotiations and steady Fed guidance.
Fed Chair Powell reiterated that more clarity is needed before any policy changes, which has weighed on non-yielding assets like silver.
Still, technicals remain supportive:
- 20-day EMA: ~$32.28 (still intact)
- RSI recovering after dipping below 30
- A breakout above $33.12 would open the door to $34.87 and possibly $35.50
- Key downside levels: $31.74, $30.90, and $30.00
Despite recent weakness, the broader backdrop of geopolitical tension may continue to limit silver’s downside.
Citibank Ups Gold Forecast to $3,500 Over Next Three Months
Citibank has raised its three-month price target for gold to $3,500/oz, up from $3,000.
- Q2 average forecast: $3,250
- Recent high: $3,357.92
- Current price: $3,298.59
Citibank points to strong central bank demand and safe-haven flows. A break below $3,260 could trigger a deeper correction to $3,204, but technicals remain bullish while price holds above the 100-hour moving average.
Palladium and Platinum Start Thursday Lower Amid Broad Weakness
Platinum Group Metals opened in the red across Europe on Thursday.
- Palladium: $954.32/oz, down from $972.85
- Platinum: $965.11/oz, easing from $972.70
Weak sentiment and a firmer US dollar have weighed on metals to begin the session.
Oil Markets Test Resistance on Sanctions and Trade Optimism
Crude oil prices rallied, boosted by new US sanctions on Iranian tankers and positive noise from China about trade.
Price action now hovers near a key resistance zone between $62 and $64. Buyers are looking to break higher and target $72, while sellers are defending this zone with stops above. The market remains rangebound between $59 and $63, waiting for a decisive catalyst.
Goldman Sachs: Asian Gold Demand Powers 8-Day Rally
Gold has rallied to $3,344/oz, driven by strong Asian demand, with Goldman Sachs noting heavy buying during overnight sessions for eight consecutive days.
Key highlights:
- Trading volume is running 40% above the 10-day average.
- Speculative positioning isn’t stretched, leaving room for more upside.
- Goldman’s year-end forecast is now $3,700/oz.
- A tail-risk scenario under dovish Fed policy or reserve currency concerns could push gold to $4,500/oz.
Goldman sees this rally as durable, supported by physical demand, geopolitical tensions, and cautious monetary policy.
Europe News
ECB Delivers 25 bps Rate Cut, Drops ‘Restrictive’ Label
The European Central Bank cut key rates by 25 basis points, aligning with expectations and signaling progress in its disinflation campaign.
- Deposit rate: 2.25% (prior 2.50%)
- Main refi rate: 2.40% (prior 2.65%)
- Marginal lending facility: 2.65% (prior 2.90%)
The ECB emphasized data dependence and made no promises on future rate moves, but clearly sees inflation heading back toward its 2% target.
Lagarde Flags Rising Risks, Says Inflation Still on Track to Target
ECB President Christine Lagarde said inflation continues to ease, with indicators supporting the return to the central bank’s 2% target. However, she warned that geopolitical tensions and a stronger euro present fresh downside risks.
During the post-decision Q&A, Lagarde noted that just weeks ago, some ECB officials were in favor of delaying a rate cut entirely—though no one supported a 50bps move. She stressed that the ECB will respond appropriately based on the data and is not targeting currency levels.
German Producer Prices Dip Sharply in March, Energy Key Driver
Germany’s PPI fell 0.7% month-over-month in March, deeper than the expected 0.1% decline.
- Prior month: -0.2%
- Energy prices: -2.8% m/m
Excluding energy, producer prices actually rose 0.2% on the month and 1.4% year-over-year. This highlights how energy costs are masking underlying price trends.
Switzerland Posts Larger Trade Surplus in March
Switzerland recorded a trade surplus of CHF 6.35 billion in March, up from a revised CHF 4.74 billion the previous month.
- Exports jumped 22.2% m/m
- Imports rose 19.4% m/m
- Swiss watch exports increased 1.5% y/y to CHF 2.13 billion
Strong trade flows helped widen the surplus despite balanced growth in both directions.
ECB sources: Some members see a high chance of a June cut
- ECB sources as reported from Reuters
- Some ECB governors already see high chance of a June rate cut.
- Other governors still far from deciding, placing increased emphasis on real-time soft indicators.
ECB Decision Was Unanimous, Sources Say
According to sources cited by Reuters, the ECB’s rate cut decision was unanimous. Even known hawks like Robert Holzmann didn’t oppose the move.
While the removal of language about “restrictive” policy grabbed headlines, the ECB also flagged tighter financial conditions, which could justify further easing if the economy falters.
Deutsche Bank Expects ECB to Cut Rates on April 17
Deutsche Bank forecasts a 25bps rate cut by the ECB at its April 17 meeting, bringing the policy rate down to 2.25%.
- Downside risks—including weaker trade, falling oil prices, and euro strength—have strengthened the case for easing.
- Disinflationary forces are gaining traction, shifting the policy narrative.
- Deutsche Bank sees the terminal rate settling around 1.5%.
Markets may be underestimating how far inflation risks have tilted lower.
Asia-Pacific & World News
China Says Door Open to Trade Talks, Pushes Back on US Pressure
China’s Ministry of Commerce reiterated that it’s willing to engage in trade talks with the US but emphasized the need for mutual respect. Officials called on the US to stop using threats and coercion, stating that problems should be solved through dialogue, not pressure.
Asked about former President Trump’s claim that “the ball is in China’s court,” Chinese officials countered by suggesting the responsibility now lies with Washington. The back-and-forth highlights a familiar pattern in US-China negotiations.
Premier Li: China Needs to Break the Mold When Timing Demands
Chinese Premier Li Qiang stressed that bold moves are sometimes necessary in policymaking. He called for timely and proactive economic measures, precise policy delivery, and better communication with markets to set clear and stable expectations. The message: don’t wait—act fast when it counts.
China to Reveal New Service Sector Growth Plan on April 21
On April 21, China is set to unveil a new policy initiative aimed at expanding its services industry. The announcement will come from a joint press conference with officials from the Ministry of Commerce, MIIT, and the central bank.
Financial Times reports that Intel will need license to export AI chips to Chinese clients
- Intel has informed Chinese clients it will start needing a license to sell some of its advanced artificial intelligence processors
Financial Times reporting:
- Intel has informed Chinese clients it will start needing a license to sell some of its advanced artificial intelligence processors
The FT is gated but Reuters supply some summary information:
- Intel told clients last week that its chips would require a license for exporting to China if they have a total DRam bandwidth of 1,400 gigabytes (GB) per second or more, input-output (I/O) bandwidth of 1,100 GB per second or more, or a total of both of 1,700 GB per second or more, according to the report.
- Intel’s Gaudi series as well as Nvidia’s H20 far exceed these requirements, the report said.
China: If United States continues to play tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention
- China foreign ministry, on U.S. tariffs
- If the United States continues to play the tariff numbers game, China will pay no attention
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2085 (vs. estimate at 7.3083)
- PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.
In open market operations (OMOs), the bank injects 245.5bn yuan in 7 day reverse repos today at an unchanged rate of 1.5%
- 65.9bn mature today
- thus a net injection of 179.6bn yuan
IMF’s Georgieva: Fundamentals Strong, But Global Tensions Cloud Outlook
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says global fundamentals remain solid despite growing uncertainty. She noted:
- Labor markets are resilient
- Negative sentiment could derail recovery
- Policy pivots, particularly in tax and trade, may be necessary
She called for de-escalation between the US and China, urging both sides to work toward a fairer, rules-based trading system. Regional agreements and bilateral trade deals are likely to become more common.
Australia Adds 32.2K Jobs in March, Unemployment Holds at 4.1%
Australia’s labor market rebounded in March with 32.2K new jobs, though short of the expected 40K.
- Full-time employment: +15K
- Part-time employment: +17.2K
- Unemployment rate: steady at 4.1% (forecast was 4.2%)
- Participation rate: flat at 66.8%
While still lagging expectations, the rebound from February’s losses shows a stabilizing trend.
NZ CPI Beats Forecasts, Led by Non-Tradeables
New Zealand’s CPI for Q1 2025 rose 0.9% quarter-over-quarter, ahead of the expected 0.7%, and showed a 2.5% annual increase versus the 2.3% forecast.
- Prior quarterly CPI was 0.5%, and annual was 2.2%.
- Non-tradeables jumped 1.1% q/q and 4.0% y/y, topping projections.
- Tradeables grew 0.7% q/q, slightly under the 0.8% forecast.
Overall, domestic-driven inflation remains the primary force.
RBNZ’s Sectoral Factor Model Slips Below Key Threshold
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s favored inflation gauge—the sectoral factor model—came in at 2.9% year-over-year for Q1 2025, a drop from 3.1% in Q4 2024. This marks a move under the RBNZ’s 3% upper target range, potentially reinforcing the case for policy patience.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Simone Robbers resigns
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant Governor Simone Robbers resigns
- Finishes up at the end of May 2025
- Assistant Governor/General Manager Strategy, Engagement and Sustainability
Former RBNZ Governor Orr resigned abruptly in March.
Japan finance minister expresses deep concern over impact of Trump’s tariffs
- Japan finance minister, Katsunobu Kato, remarks to Reuters in an interview
- Deeply concerned about US tariffs affecting Japan, world economy
- Impact could be felt via various routes such as trade and financial markets
- There’s a risk of exerting downwards pressure on Japan’s economy
- No comment on what will be discussed on FX at possible meeting with Bessent
- No change to Japan’s stance over recent FX market developments
- Actively exchanging views with the US on basic stance on FX
- Will closely communicate with the US on currency issues in light of market volatility
BOJ’s Nakagawa: Financial markets are reflecting uncertain situation
- Remarks by BOJ policymaker, Junko Nakagawa
- Markets are nervous and uncertainty is heightening
- Still two weeks until next policy meeting, need to gauge factors including tariff discussions
- No comment on forex or tariff discussions
- Tariffs present a major challenge, uncertainty unseen for a long time in Japan
- Difficult to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy and prices currently
Japan’s Export Growth Slows, Trade Surplus Narrower
Japan posted a trade surplus of ¥544.1 billion in March, slightly better than the ¥485.3 billion forecast, but down from ¥590.5 billion in February.
- Exports rose 3.9% y/y (vs. 4.5% expected), a sharp drop from 11.4% in the prior month.
- Imports rose 2.0% y/y (expected 3.1%) after a 0.7% dip previously.
- Country-specific export changes:
- U.S.: +3.1%
- EU: -1.1%
- China: -4.8%
- Asia overall: +5.5%
Majority of Japanese Companies Plan Price and Wage Hikes
A growing number of Japanese firms are preparing to raise prices in 2025, according to a Reuters survey.
- 13% have already hiked prices this fiscal year.
- Another 70% are considering increases amid rising labor and input costs.
- Nearly 70% say boosting salaries for new recruits is now essential.
Teikoku Databank’s separate research shows starting salaries for new grads are expected to rise by an average of ¥9,114 (about $64) this year.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japan’s real interest rate remains very low
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda
- Japan’s economy recovering moderately albeit with some weak signs
- Japan’s economy, prices moving roughly in line with our forecasts but must be vigilant to heightening uncertainty including from each country’s trade policy
- Japan’s financial system maintaining stability as a whole
- Japan’s real interest rates remain very low
- BOJ expected to keep raising interest rates if economy, prices move in line with projections made in our quarterly report
- We will scrutinise at each policy meeting without any preset idea whether economy moving in line with our forecasts
- We will guide policy appropriately while scrutinising domestic, overseas economic developments as well as markets and risks
- When BOJ raised rates in January, U.S. economy was in solid shape, markets had been stable
- Uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy, particularly on tariffs, has heightened sharply recently
- FX rates should move stably reflecting fundamentals
- U.S. tariffs affect Japan’s economy through various channels
- Higher-than-expected U.S. tariffs raised global economic uncertainties, caused market turmoil
- U.S. tariffs could exert downward pressure on global, domestic economy, while can’t tell right now which way they would impact prices
- Frequently have one-on-one meetings with policymakers from other countries
- Plan to exchange views with U.S. Fed chairman and other policymakers at next week’s meetings
- Will assess U.S. policies, wage, price trend at next BoJ policy meeting
- Prolonged food inflation could change inflation expectations and result in real inflation, so we’ll closely monitor the situation using data and hearings
- We’re focused on underlying inflation as our goal is to achieve 2% inflation in a stably and durably
- Underlying inflation gradually approaching 2% with Labour situation being tight, inflation expectations rising modestly, but uncertainties are increasing due to U.S. tariff policies
BoJ’s Nakagawa says if economic and inflation targets hit, will continue to raise rates
- BoJ board member Nakagawa:
- U.S. tariff policy, overseas economic and market developments among risks to Japan’s economic outlook
- Uncertainty over U.S. tariffs could affect household, corporate sentiment, Japan’s economy and prices
- Excessive market volatility may put downward pressure on Japan’s economy
- Companies still in process of passing on raw material costs
- Considering current real interest rate levels, future monetary policy conduct will depend on developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions
- There is risk wage pressure may strengthen further, translated into sales prices
- Worsening consumer sentiment could disrupt cycle of rising income and expenditure
- If outlook for economic activity and prices is realised, BOJ will continue to raise interest rate and adjust degree of monetary accommodation
Japan PM Ishiba says talks with the US were constructive
- Ishiba says economy minister Akazawa reported the talks were constructive
- talks will not be easy going forward
- Ishiba says he’ll visit the US at an appropriate time time to meet with Trump.
Bank of Korea Keeps Rates Steady at 2.75%
As markets anticipated, the Bank of Korea left its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75%. The central bank appears to be maintaining a wait-and-see stance amid lingering economic uncertainties.
Singapore NODX Misses Badly with Just 5.4% Growth
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports rose just 5.4% year-on-year in March, missing the 14.1% forecast and down from February’s 7.6% gain.
- Exports to Taiwan, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea rose.
- Shipments to China, however, declined, dragging on overall performance.
Crypto Market Pulse
Solana Surges Past $135 as Canada Launches World’s First SOL ETF
Solana jumped 7% on Thursday, breaking through the $135 resistance level as momentum surged from two major developments: the launch of the first Solana spot ETF and a $270 million influx in staking deposits.
Toronto-based Purpose Investments rolled out the world’s first Solana ETF under the ticker CSOL, now trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The product gives investors regulated access to SOL without the technical hurdle of managing crypto wallets or private keys.
CEO Som Seif pointed to growing interest in Solana’s ecosystem, especially in DeFi, NFTs, and gaming, calling SOL a legitimate alternative to Ethereum given its scalability and low fees.
Simultaneously, Solana saw 2 million SOL added to staking this week—roughly $270 million—cutting down circulating supply just as demand climbs. Combined with global dovish policy expectations and a rollback of restrictive DeFi regulation in the US, analysts say Solana could start closing in on Ethereum’s market share.
XRP Holds Above $2 as Ripple Scores Court Win in SEC Case
Ripple’s XRP remains firm above $2 following a US appellate court’s decision to pause its legal battle with the SEC for 60 days, potentially clearing a path to settlement.
- The court granted a joint motion to suspend proceedings
- SEC must provide a status update by June 15
- An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern hints at a potential 27% upside move toward $2.78
Ripple and the SEC are reportedly in the final stages of resolving the lawsuit, with a tentative agreement to reduce the fine to $50 million. The pause signals that a long-awaited resolution may finally be in sight.
Slovenia to Tax Crypto Profits at 25%, Targeting Gains from 2026 Onward
Slovenia is proposing a 25% tax on individual crypto profits, set to take effect January 1, 2026. The draft law, unveiled by the Finance Ministry, aims to close a gap between how crypto and traditional investments like stocks are taxed.
Key features:
- Applies to profits when crypto is exchanged for fiat or used for purchases
- Crypto-to-crypto swaps (e.g., BTC to ETH) are exempt
- NFTs, CBDCs, and security tokens are also excluded
- “Reset” provision pegs all assets to fair market value as of Jan 1, 2026
If passed, taxpayers must file annual crypto tax returns starting in 2027. Estimated revenue from the tax ranges between €2.5M and €25M annually. Public feedback is open until May 5, with a parliamentary vote expected later this year.
This move brings Slovenia in line with EU and OECD standards and marks a significant step away from its previously crypto-friendly stance.
Crypto Market Sheds $633B in Q1 as Post-Inauguration Rally Fades
According to CoinGecko’s Q1 report, the global crypto market cap dropped by 18.6% in the first quarter, erasing $633.5 billion after peaking on January 18, shortly before Donald Trump’s return to office.
- Daily trading volume fell 27.3% QoQ
- Bitcoin lost 11.8% but increased its market dominance to 59.1%
- Ethereum dropped 3.9%, hitting its lowest dominance since 2019
- Stablecoins like USDT gained market share; USDC climbed back to the 7th-largest spot
- XRP and BNB held their ground among major coins
Gold and Treasuries outperformed crypto in Q1, reflecting investor caution.
Bitcoin Stuck in a Holding Pattern, Traders Wait for Clarity
Bitcoin is coiling in a tight range as momentum from earlier risk rallies fades. After Trump hit pause on reciprocal tariffs, crypto markets, like others, paused too.
On the daily chart, BTC is straddling a trendline, with resistance near 86,125 and support around 83,000. A strong breakout either way could determine the next major move—toward 90,625 or back to recent lows. For now, traders are playing the range as eyes shift to trade deal developments.
The Day’s Takeaway
Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments
United States: Tension Beneath the Surface
- Markets Whiplash: The S&P 500 gave up solid early gains to close flat, while the Dow plunged 1.3% after UnitedHealth tanked 22% on guidance cuts. Nasdaq slipped slightly.
- Economic Signals:
- Housing Starts down to 1.324M (vs. 1.494M prior) — builders feeling the rate pressure.
- Philly Fed Index crashed to -26.4, signaling a sharp decline in new orders.
- Jobless Claims steady at 215K, underscoring labor market resilience.
- Powell vs. Trump: Fed Chair Powell stays cautious, saying policy is well-positioned. Trump continues his criticism, calling Powell “too late and wrong” and is reportedly eyeing Kevin Warsh as a potential replacement.
- Trade Developments: Reports say a US-Japan trade deal is close, boosting the dollar and easing gold.
Commodities: Resistance Meets Realities
- Crude Oil: Hovering around resistance near $63 after US sanctions on Iran and upbeat China trade signals. Still rangebound, waiting for a breakout trigger.
- Gold: Hit a record high at $3,358 before retracing to ~$3,290 as US trade optimism lifted the dollar. Powell’s hawkish tone added pressure.
- Silver: Fell to $32.50 after 10-day rally; USD rebound and Fed commentary capped gains.
- Palladium/Platinum: Started Thursday lower in Europe; light volume, risk-off tone.
Europe: ECB Softens as Risks Rise
- Rate Cut Delivered: ECB cut rates by 25 bps; President Lagarde says disinflation is on track but downside risks are growing.
- Consensus Cut: Decision was unanimous — even hawks like Holzmann didn’t object.
- Geopolitical Caution: Lagarde warned of a strong euro adding to downside pressure.
Asia: Cautious Optimism Amid Ongoing Trade Drama
- China: Signaled willingness to negotiate with the US — but on equal terms. Beijing says the ball is actually in Washington’s court.
- Japan: Exports rose just 3.9% (vs. 4.5% expected), reflecting slowing global trade.
- South Korea: Bank of Korea held rates at 2.75%, staying steady amid global uncertainty.
- Singapore: NODX rose 5.4%, missing lofty expectations. Exports to China fell.
Rest of World: Policy Shifts & Crypto Regulation
- Canada: Launched the world’s first Solana spot ETF (ticker: CSOL) on the Toronto Stock Exchange, propelling SOL above $135.
- Slovenia: Proposed a 25% tax on crypto gains starting in 2026 — a sign of maturing regulation in the EU.
- IMF: Kristalina Georgieva says fundamentals are strong but uncertainty remains high. She urges clarity on global trade and more regional cooperation.
Crypto: Institutional Momentum Meets Market Shocks
- Solana (SOL): Up 7% on ETF news and $270M in new staking deposits. SOL outperformed BTC and ETH.
- Q1 Crypto Crash: Total market cap dropped 18.6% ($633B) after peaking pre-inauguration. BTC fell 11.8%, ETH down 3.9%, but Bitcoin dominance rose to 59.1%.
- Ripple (XRP): Holding above $2.00 after a US court paused its SEC case. Settlement appears near.
- Ethereum: Struggling below $1,600 as Solana closes the legitimacy gap, both on-chain and institutionally.
