Major U.S. Indices Stage Strong Reversal Into Month-End; NASDAQ Ekes Out Gain
U.S. stock indices closed out April with a dramatic intraday reversal, erasing steep early losses to finish mixed on the day and for the month. The Dow and S&P 500 ended the session higher, while the NASDAQ slipped slightly but still posted a monthly gain.
Daily Recap (April 30, 2025):
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 141.74 points (+0.35%) to 40,669.36 after plunging as much as 782 points earlier in the session.
S&P 500 added 8.19 points (+0.15%) to close at 5,569.02, rebounding from a session low of -127.59 points.
NASDAQ Composite slipped 14.98 points (-0.09%) to 17,446.34, after being down more than 500 points intraday.
Monthly Performance:
Dow: -3.18% in April
S&P 500: -0.77%
NASDAQ: +0.85%
The rally into the close was driven by a short-covering wave, strong after-hours earnings from Microsoft and Meta, and bargain-hunting in heavily sold-off sectors. Market sentiment remains fragile amid ongoing trade uncertainty, soft economic data, and shifting expectations for interest rate cuts.
Microsoft Q3 Earnings Crush Expectations With Cloud-Led Growth
Microsoft (MSFT) delivered another strong quarter, beating analyst expectations on both earnings and revenue in Q3 FY2025, driven by robust demand across its cloud and productivity segments.
Key Financials:
Adjusted EPS: $3.46 vs. $3.22 expected (beat)
Revenue: $70.1 billion vs. $68.41 billion expected (beat)
Segment Highlights:
Cloud revenue: $42.4 billion
Intelligent Cloud (Azure, server products): $26.8 billion vs. $25.99 billion expected
Productivity and Business Processes (Office, LinkedIn, Dynamics): $29.9 billion
CEO Satya Nadella emphasized AI integration across Microsoft’s cloud stack as a key revenue driver. The company continues to see strong enterprise demand for AI-enhanced productivity tools and Azure-based services.
Shares surged 5.4% in after-hours trading, climbing $21.40 to $416.40. Microsoft’s consistent performance has reinforced its position as a pillar of market stability amid broader tech sector volatility.
Meta Smashes Earnings Estimates and Guides Strong Despite Ad Market Headwinds
Meta Platforms (META) reported a stellar Q1 2025, beating Wall Street expectations on both top and bottom lines, and issuing bullish revenue guidance for Q2. The company also trimmed full-year expense forecasts, boosting investor sentiment.
Q1 Results:
EPS: $6.43 vs. $5.21 expected
Revenue: $42.31 billion vs. $41.36 billion expected
Advertising revenue: $41.39 billion vs. $40.55 billion expected
Q2 Revenue Guidance:
$42.5B–$45.5B, ahead of the $44.41B consensus estimate
Updated FY Expense Forecast:
$113B–$118B, down from $114B–$119B
Meta continues to benefit from improved monetization across its platforms and tight cost control. Despite global economic headwinds and regulatory uncertainty, ad revenue growth remains resilient.
Shares rose 4.99% to $577 in after-hours trading. Analysts applauded Meta’s strong execution and disciplined approach to spending amid macro challenges.
Q1 Earnings Recap: Coke, eBay, Robinhood, Qualcomm Post Mixed Results
Several high-profile names reported Q1 2025 results after the bell, with a mixed bag of beats, misses, and cautious guidance.
Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE):
Sales: $1.58 billion
Net income: $103.6 million
Operating income: $189.8 million
Pre-tax profit: $139.5 million
Gross margin: 39.7%
Operating margin: 12%
FY Capex outlook: $300 million
Coke’s margins remained solid, though some analysts noted soft volume growth.
Following the disappointing Q1 GDP print of -0.3%, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects Q2 2025 growth at 2.4%. That’s a sharp contrast to Q1, which saw weakness in consumer spending and net trade. The “gold-adjusted” estimate for Q1 from the Atlanta Fed had been -1.5%, closer to the official release than market consensus. The Q2 forecast suggests a potential rebound, but markets will watch closely for May’s data to confirm that.
In their own words:
The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent on April 30. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning was -0.3 percent, 2.4 percentage points above the final GDPNow estimate of -2.7 percent growth and 1.2 percentage points above the final gold-adjusted model nowcast. The gold-adjusted model replaces what was the standard model with the onset of today’s forecast.
US March Core PCE +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% Expected
Core PCE inflation came in at 2.6% y/y, matching expectations.
Monthly core PCE: 0.0%
Supercore services (ex-shelter): +3.0% y/y
Headline PCE: +2.3% y/y
Personal income: +0.5%
Personal spending: +0.7%
Real personal spending: +0.7%
Savings rate: 3.9% (down from 4.6%)
The month-over-month inflation numbers were flat, but strong consumer spending in March boosted the data. Income growth also beat, but the drop in savings signals stretched household finances.
ADP April US Employment +62K vs +115K Expected
ADP private payrolls showed +62K jobs added in April, missing the 115K forecast.
Goods-producing: +26K
Service-providing: +34K
Job stayers’ wage growth: +4.5% (down from +4.6%)
Job changers’ wage growth: +6.9% (up from +6.5%)
The April figure is a steep drop from the revised March total of +147K. Slower hiring and wage growth moderation suggest cooling in the labor market.
US Q1 Advance GDP -0.3% vs +0.3% Expected
The US economy contracted in Q1 2025 for the first time in three years, posting -0.3% growth against +0.3% expectations.
Consumer spending rose just +1.8%, well below the prior +4.0%
Final sales to domestic purchasers: +2.3%
Net trade subtracted -4.83%
Inventories added +2.25%
Core PCE inflation: +3.5%
GDP price index: +3.7%
While inventories and trade pulled heavily, inflation metrics came in hot. Business investment posted a surprise +9.8% increase, but government spending was a drag. Final sales excluding government grew 3.0%.
US Pending Home Sales for March +6.1% vs +1.0% Estimate
Pending home sales surged 6.1% in March, far outpacing the 1.0% forecast. The index jumped to 76.5 from 72.1 the prior month. Year-over-year, pending transactions were down 0.6%. Regionally:
Northeast: -0.5% m/m, -3.0% y/y
Midwest: +4.9% m/m, +1.4% y/y
South: +9.8% m/m, -0.4% y/y
West: +4.8% m/m, -2.0% y/y
Mortgage rates eased from February’s 6.84% to 6.65% in March, helping demand recover despite still-high borrowing costs.
According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun,
“Home buyers are acutely sensitive to even minor fluctuations in mortgage rates. While contract signings are not a guarantee of eventual closings, the solid rise in pending home sales implies a sizable build-up of potential home buyers, fueled by ongoing job growth.”
“In March, signed contracts surged 34.1% from February based on non-seasonally adjusted raw data, reflecting a pattern consistent with previous years. In addition, inventory levels rose by 8.1% in March from the prior month, indicating a more dynamic housing-market environment.”
US MBA Mortgage Applications Down 4.2% as Rates Hold Steady
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, US mortgage applications fell -4.2% in the week ending April 25, following a -12.7% decline the previous week.
Breakdown of the weekly data:
Market Index: 223.7 (prior: 233.5)
Purchase Index: 146.6 (prior: 153.4)
Refinance Index: 649.0 (prior: 673.6)
30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.89% (prior: 6.90%)
While this data doesn’t typically move markets, it remains a clear signal of housing market pressure as long-term yields remain elevated. The mortgage application index continues to move inversely to the US 30-year Treasury yield, tracking affordability constraints for potential homebuyers.
Visa: No Signs of Consumer Weakness Anywhere
Visa executives delivered an emphatic message during their earnings call: consumers globally remain resilient, and the macro environment is not showing any material signs of weakness. Key takeaways include:
“No signs of consumer spending weakening” through April 21
All income bands are spending, with the affluent growing fastest
Both discretionary and nondiscretionary spending strong
Cross-border volume growth in line with late 2024 trends
Only soft spot: travel spending to specific countries, especially Canada to the US
Visa executives acknowledged higher uncertainty among businesses and consumers but said they see no impact from tariffs related to China thus far.
The expected signing of a US–Ukraine minerals framework agreement hit a late obstacle on Wednesday, according to a Financial Times report. Ukraine reportedly sought to revisit previously agreed terms from the weekend. US officials have not ruled out a deal being finalized, but say it depends on Ukraine reverting to the original agreement. The deal was intended to secure critical mineral supply chains as part of broader geopolitical cooperation.
Trump says he hopes for a deal with China ‘at a certain point’
Comments from Trump
Does not want China’s products unless they are fair
Fairness with China includes IP
I want China to do well, I want every country to do well
Core GDP was up despite distortions
On trade deals says “I think we are doing great”
Treasury Secretary Bessent: Pres. Trump has created negotiating leverage
The Treasury Department kept its auction sizes unchanged for the upcoming quarters.
10-year note auctions will remain at $42 billion. The statement continues to highlight “steady” issuance over “several quarters.” This suggests no immediate pressure to increase supply despite rising deficit concerns.
FT: Trump Adviser Miran “Out of His Depth” in Investor Meeting
The Financial Times reports that Trump’s chief economic adviser Stephen Miran faced sharp criticism during a private Q&A with hedge funds and institutional investors last Friday.
Sources described him as “incoherent” and “out of his depth” when pressed on trade and tariffs.
One attendee said, “The talking points fell apart quickly when he got questions.”
Miran previously served at the Treasury (2020–21) and worked as a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital Management.
The meeting was widely viewed as counterproductive by some participants, casting doubt on the administration’s ability to defend its tariff-heavy agenda before experienced market players.
Elon Musk Steps Back from White House Role, Ends DOGE Duties
According to the New York Post, Elon Musk is no longer operating from the White House as part of his unpaid special government employee role. The arrangement, tied to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is set to officially conclude in May.
Musk is no longer physically working from the White House, having stepped back from day-to-day involvement.
His team remains active from the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, just across the street.
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles confirmed that communication with Musk remains strong, mainly via phone.
Musk’s brief political stint always had a short shelf life, and observers now expect him to refocus his attention on Tesla, SpaceX, and his broader private-sector ventures.
Canada February GDP -0.2% vs 0.0% Estimate
Canada’s GDP fell 0.2% in February, below expectations for flat growth.
Prior month: +0.4%
Goods-producing industries: -0.6%
Services-producing industries: -0.1%
12 of 20 sectors contracted
The preliminary estimate for March shows +0.1% growth. Momentum is weakening across both goods and services, with a clear cooling from January’s gains.
Details of the report:
Following two consecutive monthly increases, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector became the largest detractor from growth, down 2.5% in February, as most subsectors contracted
Construction (-0.5%) contracted for the first time in four months as most types of construction activities were down in February.. Residential construction -0.9% contributed most to the decline in February with its largest increase since April 2024.
The real estate and rental and leasing sector contracted 0.4% in February, posting its largest decline since April 2022.
The manufacturing sector rose 0.6% in February, up for the second month in a row, in large part driven by durable-goods manufacturing industries in February.
Transportation and warehousing contracted 1.1% in February, following two consecutive monthly gains. Major snowstorms that hit Central and Eastern Canada and storms passing through British Columbia adversely impacted the sector in February.
The finance and insurance sector increased 0.7% in February, rising for the third consecutive month.
Carney and Trump Speak by Phone Following Canadian Election
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump in a post-election phone call.
Trump congratulated Carney on his win.
The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to work together as sovereign nations.
They agreed to meet in person soon to discuss the future of Canada-U.S. cooperation.
Trump’s aggressive trade threats played a notable role in boosting Carney’s campaign during the final stretch.
TDS: Chinese Gold ETF Outflows Not a Trend Shift, but a Liquidity Signal
Chinese Gold ETFs saw their largest outflows in 264 sessions, but TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali says this is a temporary pause, not a reversal in trend. The -80,000 oz exit was likely due to profit-taking ahead of China’s long holiday.
Ghali notes that despite being overbought, gold is “under-owned,” especially by Western macro funds. A rise in Asian currency depreciation or recession fears could quickly reignite gold’s rally. CTA selling is absent, and macro funds remain neutral, leaving gold’s structural outlook intact.
Copper Faces Price Pressure as China Holiday and CTA Liquidations Collide
According to TD Securities, copper is vulnerable to further losses due to a perfect storm of soft Chinese manufacturing PMIs, CTA liquidations, and an upcoming liquidity gap caused by China’s holiday closure.
Daniel Ghali warns that systematic sellers are likely to reduce exposure aggressively, with algo-driven trades potentially liquidating as much as 45% of max CTA long positions. A flat price action could trigger selling; a sharp move down would exacerbate the pain.
With China as the primary buyer lately, the looming holiday break leaves copper prices exposed in a thin market.
Crude Oil Closes Below $60 as Macro and Supply Pressures Mount
WTI crude futures settled at $58.21 on Wednesday, down $2.21 or -3.67% for the day. This marks the first close below $60 since April 8 and the lowest closing price since April 9. The intraday low was $57.94.
Several macroeconomic and structural factors weighed on crude prices:
U.S. Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3%, the first decline in three years.
Consumer confidence hit its lowest level since 1990.
April’s ADP employment report showed just 62,000 new jobs, far below the 134,000 forecast.
OPEC+ is restoring supply, with 411,000 barrels/day returning in May.
Saudi Arabia is signaling it can endure an extended period of low prices, as it targets overproducing nations like Kazakhstan and Iraq.
The EIA reported a crude inventory draw of 2.7 million barrels—much larger than the 390,000-barrel build forecast. However, the bullish inventory data failed to support prices amid recession fears and increasing global supply.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report – Crude Draws Sharply, Gasoline Plunges
For the week ending April 25, 2025, the EIA reported:
Crude oil inventories: -2.696 million barrels (expected +429K)
Gasoline inventories: -4.003 million barrels (expected -1.031M)
The crude draw was a major surprise, contrasting sharply with expectations for a build. Gasoline stocks also plunged, while distillate inventories moved in the opposite direction. The report shows strong demand in refined products even as broader macro risks continue to cloud oil pricing.
Saudi Arabia Signals Willingness to Endure Prolonged Low Oil Prices
Saudi officials have reportedly informed allies and industry experts that the Kingdom is prepared to sustain low oil prices for an extended period. The comments, shared in recent briefings, appear to be a warning aimed at countries violating OPEC+ output quotas or failing to compensate for past overproduction. The oil market immediately reacted to the headline, with prices falling. The message: Saudi Arabia is not bluffing and is willing to escalate pressure through a potential price war.
ICSG: Global Copper Surplus to Expand in 2025 Despite Stronger China Demand
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) now forecasts a 289kt surplus in the global copper market for 2025, citing rising mine supply and refining capacity. This is a jump from the previous projection of 194kt and marks a continuation from the 138kt surplus in 2024.
For 2026, the group sees the surplus narrowing to 209kt, assuming demand rebounds and inventory drawdowns continue.
Key drivers, per ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson:
Global mine production: +2.3% YoY in 2025, +2.5% YoY in 2026
Refined output: +2.9% YoY in 2025, +1.5% in 2026 — driven by China, Indonesia, India, and the DRC
Refined copper demand: +2.4% YoY in 2025, +1.8% in 2026 — mainly from Asia
China is absorbing more of the global supply, with the Yangshan Copper premium hitting $94/t, the highest since December 2023. Inventories in Chinese warehouses fell by 54,858 tonnes last week, marking a fifth consecutive weekly drop.
Speculator activity:
Copper net longs down by 3,529 lots to 64,806 (lowest since mid-January)
Aluminium net longs fell for the eighth week to 79,412
Zinc net longs rose by 772 lots to 4,339 after five weeks of decline
Palladium and Platinum Trade Mixed in Early European Action
Trading in Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) opened Wednesday with a mixed tone.
Palladium (XPD) was last seen at $938.30/oz, slightly down from $939.50 at the prior close.
Platinum (XPT) edged higher to $982.80/oz, up marginally from Tuesday’s close of $982.15.
No major catalysts were cited at the start of the session, and PGMs continue to move in line with broader commodity risk appetite.
Oil Under Heavy Pressure as Inventories Jump and Monthly Losses Deepen
Oil prices fell for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, with WTI sliding below $60/bbl and Brent crude off by 15% in April, heading for its largest monthly loss on record.
According to ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson, bearish momentum is being driven by:
Lingering tariff threats and uncertainty over OPEC+ output curbs
API inventory data showing a surprise build:
Crude: +3.76 million barrels (vs. -0.8m expected)
Cushing: +674,000 barrels
Gasoline: -3.14 million barrels
Distillates: -2.52 million barrels
Despite the weakness, demand for Middle East crude remains stable. Traders expect Saudi Arabia to raise its official selling price (OSP) for June to Asia by about $0.30/bbl. This would reverse the $2.30/bbl cut in May OSP, the largest cut since 2022.
Hedge Fund Titan John Paulson Sees Gold Hitting $5,000 by 2028
John Paulson, founder of Paulson & Co., is forecasting gold to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2028, calling the estimate “reasonable” and grounded in current macro trends.
Paulson pointed to:
Global reserve diversification, with central banks shifting away from the U.S. dollar.
Geopolitical hedging, citing Russia’s retention of physical gold amid sanctions.
Rising distrust of dollar-denominated assets, especially among emerging markets.
“The best place to go if your faith in the U.S. dollar diminishes is gold as a reserve currency,” Paulson said, emphasizing how tariff-driven uncertainty only fuels this trend further.
API Survey Shows Large Crude Build, Product Drawdowns
The latest API inventory report shows a much larger than expected crude oil build:
Crude: +3.76 million barrels (expected: +390,000)
Gasoline: -3.14 million barrels
Distillates: -2.52 million barrels
Cushing: +674,000 barrels
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): +1 million barrels
The imbalance — crude stockpiling while refined products decline — reflects weakened demand and ongoing supply/demand imbalances heading into peak travel season.
European Markets Close Mixed; Germany Posts Mixed Data
European indices ended Wednesday with mixed results:
German DAX: +0.32%
France’s CAC 40: +0.50%
UK FTSE 100: +0.37%
Spain’s Ibex 35: -0.59%
Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.71%
In Germany, April CPI came in at +2.1% y/y, slightly below March’s 2.2% but marginally above the 2.0% consensus. GDP grew 0.2% in Q1, rebounding from a -0.2% contraction. ING analysts noted that despite the improvement, Germany remains at risk of a third straight year of mild recession. Unemployment ticked up to 6.3%, with 4,000 new jobless claims—below the expected 20,000 and sharply down from March’s 26,000 increase.
Eurozone Q1 GDP Stronger Than Expected at +0.4% Q/Q
Preliminary Eurostat data shows Eurozone Q1 2025 GDP grew +0.4% quarter-on-quarter, doubling the forecast of +0.2%. This is also up from the +0.2% growth recorded in Q4 2024.
Year-on-year growth came in at +1.2%, slightly ahead of the +1.1% forecast, and unchanged from Q4.
Economists attribute the stronger reading to frontloading by consumers and businesses, especially in the U.S., who rushed to buy European goods before tariffs took effect. The data reflects temporary strength in demand, which could reverse in Q2 if retaliatory tariffs hit exports.
Germany April Preliminary CPI (HICP) +2.2% vs +2.1% y/y Expected
Germany’s April HICP came in at +2.2% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 2.1%. The month-over-month figure was +0.5%, above the expected +0.4%. Core CPI rose sharply to +2.9% y/y from 2.6%. The overall numbers are a touch firmer but not enough to derail the ECB’s expected rate cut in June. The rise in core inflation is notable, and markets will now watch for signs of a demand rebound—especially if trade tensions ease. A sudden pickup in activity could shift rate expectations, making future inflation moves more relevant.
Germany Retail Sales Fall in March, February Revised Lower
Germany’s March 2025 retail sales dropped -0.2% month-on-month, a smaller decline than the forecasted -0.4%. February’s initially reported +0.8% gain was revised down to +0.2%.
Despite the month-on-month drop, the year-on-year figure rose +2.2%, showing that retail spending is still higher compared to March 2024. The weaker March print and downward revision to February reflect cautious consumer behavior amid tariff uncertainty and broader economic headwinds.
Germany Import Prices Tumble in March on Energy Weakness
Germany’s Import Price Index for March fell -1.0% month-on-month, more than the expected -0.8%. This follows a +0.3% gain in February.
The main driver of the decline was a sharp drop in energy prices. When excluding energy, import prices were only down -0.3%. Breakdown of other key categories:
Intermediate goods: -0.4%
Capital goods: -0.4%
The data suggests continued import deflation pressure, especially in the industrial segment.
Germany April Jobless Change Lower Than Forecast, Rate Steady
Germany’s unemployment change for April came in at +4,000, significantly below the expected +15,000, and well down from March’s +26,000.
The unemployment rate held steady at 6.3%, in line with expectations.
Key context from Destatis:
Total employment in March was approximately 45.7 million.
The seasonally adjusted change in employment was minimal at +6,000, continuing a trend of flat job numbers since December.
February had seen a modest gain of +9,000, while January saw a decrease of -13,000.
The figures indicate a stabilized labor market, though growth momentum remains weak.
Regional German CPI Readings Soft Across the Board in April
Preliminary state-level CPI figures for April showed a slight cooling in inflation across most German states:
Bavaria: +2.1% y/y (prior: +2.3%)
Hesse: +2.3% y/y (prior: +2.4%)
Brandenburg: +2.2% y/y (prior: +2.3%)
Saxony: +2.4% y/y (prior: +2.5%)
North Rhine-Westphalia: +1.8% y/y (prior: +1.9%)
Baden-Württemberg: +2.4% y/y (prior: +2.2%)
Overall, price growth moderated modestly, although Baden-Württemberg posted a slight acceleration. However, ECB policy expectations remain driven more by tariff and growth dynamics, with this round of inflation data unlikely to alter the current rate-cut trajectory.
Germany Q1 GDP Grows 0.2%, Recovers from Late 2024 Contraction
Germany’s Q1 2025 preliminary GDP rose +0.2% quarter-on-quarter, matching economist expectations and rebounding from -0.2% in Q4 2024, according to Destatis.
On a year-on-year basis, GDP fell -0.2%, unchanged from the previous reading.
Growth was supported by increased household consumption and capital formation.
Destatis emphasized that the Q1 gain came after a weak Q4 and noted that the quarterly change was seasonally and calendar adjusted.
The GDP figures suggest modest stabilization, though external trade remains under pressure from global tariff dynamics.
France April Inflation Beats Expectations, Services and Food Drive Rise
The April preliminary CPI (HICP) in France came in at +0.8% y/y, slightly above the expected +0.7%, but down from +0.9% in March.
According to INSEE:
The rise in prices was mainly driven by transport services and food.
Energy prices declined in April.
Prices of manufactured goods and tobacco remained mostly unchanged.
French inflation has remained manageable, and this subdued trajectory supports the dovish rhetoric from ECB policymaker Villeroy, who has publicly backed additional rate cuts.
France Q1 GDP Rebounds Slightly, But Consumer Spending Stalls
France’s preliminary GDP for Q1 2025 rose +0.1% quarter-on-quarter, in line with expectations. This follows a -0.1% contraction in Q4 2024, according to INSEE data released on April 30.
The rebound marks a technical improvement, but not a broad-based recovery. The major point of concern is that consumption activity was flat during the first quarter, raising questions about the strength of domestic demand moving forward. While France avoided a second consecutive quarterly contraction, the momentum behind household spending remains subdued.
Italy April CPI (HICP) +2.1% Y/Y, Slightly Below Forecast
Italy’s preliminary HICP inflation rate for April 2025 rose +2.1% y/y, just below the expected +2.3%. The core CPI came in at 2.1%, up from 1.7% in March.
According to Istat, the main contributors to annual inflation included:
Regulated energy products: +32.9% (previous: +27.2%)
Processed food and alcohol: +2.3% (previous: +1.9%)
Offsetting these were:
Non-regulated energy products: down to -2.9% from +0.7%
Tobacco prices: slowed to +3.4% from +4.6%
Italy Q1 GDP Grows +0.3% Q/Q, Beats Expectations
Italy’s Q1 2025 preliminary GDP rose +0.3% q/q, above the expected +0.2%, and up from +0.1% in Q4 2024. On a yearly basis, GDP grew +0.6%, exceeding forecasts of +0.4%.
Key highlights from Istat:
The quarter included one fewer working day compared to Q4 2024 and two fewer than Q1 2024.
Value-added rose in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and industry.
Service sector growth was flat for the quarter.
From the demand side, domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) contributed positively, while net exports dragged growth.
UK April Business Sentiment Drops to 3-Month Low
The Lloyds Business Barometer fell to 39% in April 2025, down from 49% in March, marking a three-month low.
Economic optimism also took a hit, sliding 13 points to 28%.
Despite the drop, both figures remain well above the long-term average of 29%.
A significant 70% of surveyed businesses expect to raise prices in the coming 12 months.
A separate survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) painted a similarly downbeat picture:
Private sector output fell in the three months to April.
Expectations for output in the next three months (through July) are also negative.
The CBI added that economic momentum now looks weaker than official statistics suggest, with global trade tensions and volatile financial markets cited as key headwinds.
UK April House Prices Fall More Than Expected
According to Nationwide Building Society, UK house prices fell -0.6% m/m in April, against expectations of flat growth (0.0%).
Prior month’s figure was also 0.0%.
The average house price is now £270,752.
Nationwide noted that the market may continue to soften, attributing the dip to typical post-stamp duty holiday patterns and broader economic caution.
Switzerland KOF Indicator Misses Expectations, Drops to 97.1
The KOF Leading Indicator for April 2025 came in at 97.1, well below the expected 101.5, and down from a revised 103.2 in March.
The sharp drop reflects the global deterioration in business sentiment following the U.S. tariff announcement on April 2. Prior to that, confidence had been building steadily on the back of Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate cuts, but global growth uncertainty has now reversed much of that progress.
Swiss Investor Sentiment Collapses in April
The UBS Investor Sentiment Index for April plunged to -51.6, down from -10.7 in March.
This severe deterioration mirrors the broader pullback in Swiss confidence, also seen in the KOF Index. Analysts cite U.S. trade policy uncertainty, along with fears of a global economic slowdown, as key drivers of collapsing sentiment.
ECB’s Makhlouf: Price risks less clear in he medium term
Price risks less clear in he medium term than the near.
Bessent told French Fin Minister the idea of zero reciprocal tariffs wasn’t unrealistic
French Finance Minister Lombard with the indiscretion
French Finance Minister Lombard says he discussed idea of reciprocal zero tariffs with Scott Bessent, and Bessent told him this was not unrealistic.
China’s Official PMIs Slide in April, Tariffs Begin to Bite
China’s official April Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0, below the expected 49.5, marking the worst reading in 16 months. March was 50.5.
The Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4, slightly beating the expected 49.9, though down from March’s 50.8.
The Composite PMI slipped to 50.2, down from 51.4.
Analysts note that front-loading of shipments in March has now reversed as U.S. tariffs begin to filter into the economy. Beijing is turning to stimulus instead of negotiation, with the NDRC and Politburo pledging sector-specific support.
Meanwhile, forecasters such as the IMF, Goldman Sachs, and UBS have downgraded China’s 2025 growth outlook, doubting whether the 5% official target can be reached.
China’s Xi: China needs to adapt to changing situations
President Xi is holding symposium on economic development
China needs to adapt to changing situations.
Urges measures to stabilize employment, markets and expectations.
China to adjust economic plan based on global change.
To promote transformation of traditional industries.
We will study and roll out a batch of balanced and accessible policy measures for people’s livelihoods.
China’s Caixin April Manufacturing PMI Beats Expectations at 50.4
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.4 for April 2025, above the forecasted 49.9, though down from March’s 51.2.
New orders barely rose, while export orders saw their steepest drop since July 2023, largely due to U.S. tariffs.
Output remained in expansion for the 18th month, but employment slipped again, especially in the investment goods sector.
Input costs fell for a second straight month, while output prices declined for the fifth.
Inventories were drawn down as demand stayed soft, and logistics slowed due to global trade tensions.
Business confidence dropped to the third-lowest on record, with firms citing persistent uncertainty.
Analysts warn that the early 2025 momentum is fading fast, with Q2 and Q3 growth likely to weaken unless policy support ramps up.
China to Close Markets for Labour Day Holiday
Markets in China will be closed from Thursday, May 1 through Monday, May 5, in observance of Labour Day. Trading will resume on Tuesday, May 6, 2025. The five-day national holiday marks a key seasonal pause for both domestic markets and international counterparties doing business with China.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.2014 (vs. estimate at 7.2670)
PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.
PBOC injects 530.8bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%
108bn yuan mature today
net injection is 422.8bn yuan
Australia Q1 Inflation Slightly Hotter Than Expected
Australia’s inflation came in slightly above expectations for Q1 2025:
Headline CPI: +2.4% y/y (expected: 2.2%)
Quarterly CPI: +0.9% q/q (prior: 0.2%)
Trimmed Mean CPI: +2.9% y/y (in line), +0.7% q/q
Weighted Median CPI: +3.0% y/y (expected: 2.9%), +0.7% q/q
Though not a huge miss, the data is enough to give the Reserve Bank of Australia room to cut rates again at its May meeting, given the broader economic slowdown.
Australian Treasurer Chalmers says the market expects more interest rate cuts
Chalmers painting an encouraging picture ahead of this weekend’s election in Australia
Australian Treasurer Chalmers
says the market expects more Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts after today’s inflation figures
he doesn’t see anything in the data to substantially alter market expectations
New Zealand April Business Confidence Falls Sharply
The ANZ Business Outlook Survey showed a sharp decline in sentiment in April:
Business confidence: 49.3 (down from 57.5)
Expected own activity: 47.7 (down from 48.6)
This is the first full reading since Trump’s major tariff announcement on April 2, and the data reflects a notable deterioration in forward-looking confidence and domestic expectations.
ANZ comments:
past own activity (the best GDP indicator in the survey) jumped 10 points from 1 to 11, while past employment jumped 8 points, from -6 to 2.
Most forward-looking activity indicators were sharply lower in the late-month responses.
Pricing and cost indicators indicate margin squeeze from ongoing cost pressures. One-year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 2.65%.
Japan March Retail Sales Beat on Year, Slip on Month
Japan’s March 2025 retail sales rose +3.1% y/y, below expectations of +3.5%, but significantly higher than February’s +1.4%. On a monthly basis, sales declined -1.2%, compared to the prior month’s +0.5%.
The Bank of Japan meets April 30–May 1, and the figures are unlikely to shift the central bank’s wait-and-see stance.
Japan Industrial Output Slumps in March
Preliminary data for March 2025 industrial production showed a sharp monthly contraction:
-1.1% m/m (expected: -0.4%)
-0.3% y/y (prior: +0.1%)
Despite this, future forecasts remain more upbeat:
April outlook: +1.3% m/m
May forecast: +3.9% m/m
These numbers are unlikely to trigger a policy change from the Bank of Japan, which is expected to remain on hold this week.
Toyota and Waymo Join Forces on Autonomous Driving
Toyota and Alphabet’s Waymo have announced a new partnership focused on developing autonomous driving systems for next-generation personal vehicles (POVs).
The collaboration aims to bring fully autonomous systems to privately owned vehicles, not just ride-hailing fleets.
Waymo brings tech leadership; Toyota contributes scale and global manufacturing.
Both firms are exploring a long-term expansion of the partnership.
The move is seen as a major step toward putting consumer-ready self-driving cars into widespread use.
Japanese government official expresses mixed feelings on Trump tariffs
Japan govt official on factory output:
Environment surrounding production remains highly uncertain
March motor vehicle production down 5.9%m/m due to lower exports, part supply disruption
Some manufacturers expressed concern about U.S. tariffs
Not heard directly U.S. tariff measures have forced manufacturers to change production plan
Bitcoin ETFs Poised for Institutional Surge, Says Bitwise
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, says Bitcoin ETFs are likely to experience a wave of institutional inflows from Wall Street’s biggest players. In a note to investors, Hougan stated that the Big Four wirehouses—Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS—could begin offering access to spot Bitcoin ETFs before the end of 2025.
These firms manage over $10 trillion in client assets and currently do not provide direct exposure to Bitcoin ETFs. Hougan noted that while inflows so far in 2025 have reached just $3.7 billion, he expects a new record by year-end, surpassing 2024’s $35 billion.
BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, Robert Mitchnick, added further insight during a panel at Token 2049 in Dubai. Mitchnick noted a significant shift in Bitcoin ETF demand from retail investors to institutional and wealth advisory clients. He emphasized that earlier ETF flows were retail-dominated, but institutional ownership is now increasing. Mitchnick dismissed the theory that Bitcoin is strongly correlated to U.S. tech stocks, calling the view inconsistent with fundamentals, though acknowledging market perception could create a feedback loop.
Recent data from Farside Investors shows that Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $3.18 billion last week, with $763 million in the past two days alone.
Ethereum Sees Diverging Sentiment Between Spot and Futures Traders
Ethereum’s price declined 3% to $1,760 on Wednesday as market signals turned mixed. Futures markets showed rising short interest, while spot market activity continued to indicate accumulation.
Open interest in Ethereum futures rose by over 700,000 ETH in the past 24 hours, even as prices fell. The ETH Taker Buy-Sell Ratio dropped from 0.99 to 0.91, pointing to growing short positions. A similar drop previously triggered an 18% ETH price decline.
Despite that, spot indicators remain bullish. Exchange net outflows have continued for six consecutive days, signaling ongoing buying pressure. U.S.-based spot ETH ETFs added $18.4 million in net inflows on Tuesday, marking $250.17 million in cumulative inflows over the last four sessions.
Options platform Derive reported bullish sentiment as well, with 81.8% of ETH options premiums going to call contracts. ETH call options outnumber puts by 4 to 1 on Derive’s platform.
However, broader crypto options markets remain cautious. The implied probability of ETH finishing May above $2,300 stands at just 9%, while the probability of a drop below $1,600 fell slightly from 24% to 21%.
Ethereum liquidations totaled $72.46 million in the past 24 hours: $60.95 million in longs and $11.51 million in shorts. ETH continues to consolidate between $1,700 and $1,850, unable to reclaim $1,800 for now.
Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $200K by Year-End
Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to reach $120,000 in Q2 and hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. The bank’s latest forecast is based on capital reallocation trends, shifting macro dynamics, and ongoing ETF inflows.
Institutional investors are moving capital away from U.S. equities and bonds, increasingly viewing BTC as a store of value and reserve asset. A rising term premium on U.S. bonds signals inflation and fiscal concerns, reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal.
Large holders (whales) continue accumulating BTC, while ETF data shows a rotation from gold into Bitcoin. This shift supports the “digital gold” narrative.
Standard Chartered’s time-of-day analysis suggests most BTC gains are driven by U.S. trading hours, confirming American investor dominance in current price action.
The bank concludes that Bitcoin will be one of the prime beneficiaries of global de-dollarization and macro rebalancing. The 2025 price target assumes current trends in capital flows and investor behavior continue.
Nasdaq Files for 21Shares Dogecoin ETF as SEC Delays Bitwise Decision
Nasdaq has officially submitted a 19b-4 form to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), proposing to list the 21Shares Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF, which would give investors exposure to DOGE without directly holding the asset. The fund’s crypto assets will be custodied by Coinbase Custody Trust.
The filing comes just as the SEC postponed its decision on the Bitwise spot DOGE ETF, extending the review period to June 15, 2025. Bitwise’s ETF proposal was submitted through NYSE Arca and Cboe BZX Exchange back in March.
Following the announcements, Dogecoin slipped slightly on Tuesday, but stabilized around $0.17 by Wednesday.
DOGE Technical Outlook:
Resistance remains at the weekly level of $0.18, which DOGE has failed to break for over a week.
Price declined by 4% between Sunday and Wednesday.
Immediate support lies at the April 22 low of $0.15.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54, trending lower toward 50 — a drop below could trigger additional selling.
A close above $0.18 may push DOGE toward the next psychological level at $0.22.
XRP Price Eyes $3 as ETF Approval Odds Rise to 85%
Ripple’s XRP token trades at $2.24 on Wednesday, defending support at its 4-hour 50-day EMA ($2.21), as bulls attempt to resume the uptrend toward $3.00. Technical indicators signal rising pressure, but momentum remains intact unless $2.21 breaks.
According to Bloomberg’s ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the odds of spot XRP ETFs gaining SEC approval have risen to 85%, following the appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair.
Applications from Grayscale, WisdomTree, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton are under review.
Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) ETFs have slightly higher approval odds at 90%.
Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) ETFs are at 80%.
Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Avalanche (AVAX) ETFs trail at 75%.
The Franklin XRP ETF decision has been delayed until June 17, while the Bitwise DOGE ETF now awaits a decision by June 15. ETF momentum is building across altcoins, with Coinbase Custody serving as custodian for several pending products.
Technical outlook:
MACD: Bearish crossover below the signal line, reinforcing short-term downside risk.
RSI: At 44.99, slipping but not yet in oversold territory.
If XRP breaks below $2.21, it may fall to $2.17, where the 100- and 200-day EMAs converge.
Despite near-term weakness, the broader uptrend remains valid as long as XRP holds above key support zones and ETF optimism persists.
Market Reversal Ends Month on Mixed Note: Despite a rough start to the day, major U.S. indices staged a powerful rebound into the close. The Dow erased a 782-point loss to finish up 0.35%. The S&P 500 eked out a modest 0.15% gain, while the NASDAQ dipped slightly but still managed a 0.85% gain for the month.
Q1 GDP Misses Badly: First estimate showed -0.3% growth vs. +0.3% expected, marking the first contraction in three years. Final sales to domestic purchasers rose just 2.3%. Consumer spending and net exports dragged significantly, while inventories surged.
PCE Inflation Mixed: Core PCE y/y held steady at +2.6%, but the monthly read was flat. Supercore services inflation remained elevated at +3.0%. Personal spending rose +0.7% m/m, reflecting resilience despite rising uncertainty.
Microsoft & Meta Power Tech Sentiment: Both companies crushed earnings estimates, lifting after-hours futures. Microsoft’s $70B revenue and Meta’s $6.43 EPS are key bright spots amid slowing macro conditions.
Pending Home Sales Surge: March pending sales jumped 6.1%, massively beating the 1.0% forecast, thanks to a dip in mortgage rates.
Visa Sees No Economic Weakness: On its earnings call, Visa reported no signs of slowing U.S. or global consumer spending, aside from some softness in cross-border travel.
Canada
February GDP Disappoints: Output fell -0.2% vs. flat expectations. Weakness was broad-based, with 12 of 20 sectors contracting. Preliminary March GDP points to a mild +0.1% recovery, but momentum is clearly slowing.
Carney-Trump Call Signals Reset: PM Mark Carney and President Trump agreed to meet soon, emphasizing sovereignty and cooperation. Markets will closely watch how Carney manages the new U.S. relationship post-election.
Commodities
Oil Crashes Below $60: WTI settled at $58.21, down -3.7%, as recession fears, weak U.S. data, and Saudi threats of enduring low prices pressured markets. A surprise 2.7M barrel inventory draw offered little support.
Copper on Edge: Chinese holidays are creating a liquidity vacuum. CTAs are liquidating aggressively, threatening further price declines. TDS warns that even sideways trading could trigger forced selling in the days ahead.
Gold Cools But Outlook Bullish: Chinese ETF outflows sparked profit-taking, but TDS downplays the move. Structural demand remains intact, especially if Asian FX weakens or stagflation returns.
Copper & Gold at Risk Amid Low Liquidity: TDS warns CTAs are accelerating liquidation in copper, while gold is vulnerable to Western macro sentiment shifts with Asia offline.
Europe
German Data Mixed: Q1 GDP grew +0.2%, recovering from contraction, but unemployment ticked up slightly. CPI came in hot at +2.2% y/y, with core CPI jumping to +2.9%.
European Markets Close Mixed: German DAX +0.32%, CAC 40 +0.50%, FTSE 100 +0.37%. Spain and Italy underperformed. Inflation and growth divergences across the region continue to complicate the ECB’s path to rate cuts.
Asia
China Begins Labor Day Holiday: Markets are closed through May 5. Liquidity will be thin, amplifying volatility risks in metals and energy.
Weak Chinese PMIs Add to Concerns: Both official and Caixin manufacturing indices signaled contraction or barely-there growth. Export orders fell sharply, and business confidence tumbled.
Crypto
Bitcoin ETFs to Attract Wall Street in 2025: Bitwise expects the Big Four wirehouses (Merrill, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Wells Fargo) to adopt Bitcoin ETFs by year-end. This could open the floodgates for institutional flows.
Standard Chartered Predicts BTC at $200K by Year-End: The bank cites capital rotation away from U.S. assets, whale accumulation, and ETF flows as core drivers. Q2 target is $120K.
ETH Sentiment Diverges: Futures positioning is turning more bearish, while spot demand (ETFs and exchange outflows) stays strong. Ethereum is consolidating between $1,700–$1,850.
Dogecoin ETF Activity Builds: Nasdaq filed to list a 21Shares DOGE ETF. Meanwhile, the SEC delayed Bitwise’s DOGE ETF decision until June 15.
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