North America News
U.S. Stocks Advance; S&P Marks Sixth Straight Gain
U.S. stocks continued their upward trajectory with all major indices closing higher. The S&P 500 notched its sixth consecutive daily gain, while the Nasdaq also climbed after ending its five-day win streak yesterday with a minor loss.
Here are the final numbers:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 300.03 points or +0.75% to finish at 40,527.62
- S&P 500 rose 32.08 points or +0.58%, ending at 5,560.83
- Nasdaq Composite added 95.18 points or +0.55%, closing at 17,461.32
- Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 10.96 points or +0.56% to 1,976.51
Momentum continues to favor the bulls, though broader macro risks remain in focus.
After-Hours Earnings Recap: Mixed Results from Starbucks, Visa, Snap & Others
A wave of earnings reports hit after the bell today, with results ranging from strong beats to disappointing misses. Here’s a breakdown of how key names performed in Q1 and Q2 earnings for 2025, and how the market is reacting in after-hours trading:
Snap Inc (SNAP)
- Q1 2025 Adj. EBITDA: $108.4M (Beat; estimate: $65.4M)
- Revenue: $1.36B (In Line; estimate: $1.35B)
- Q2 Guidance: Not provided due to uncertainty
- After-hours move: -12.02%
Despite posting a strong EBITDA beat, the lack of forward guidance weighed heavily on sentiment, sending shares sharply lower.
PPG Industries (PPG)
- Q1 2025 EPS: $1.72 (Beat; estimate: $1.61)
- Revenue: $3.68B (Beat; estimate: $3.65B)
- After-hours move: +3.00%
PPG delivered solid top- and bottom-line beats, with investors rewarding the paint and coatings company.
Seagate Technology (STX)
- Q3 2025 EPS: $1.90 (Beat; estimate: $1.73)
- Revenue: $2.19B (Beat; estimate: $2.12B)
- After-hours move: +6.29%
Strong numbers from Seagate pushed the stock sharply higher in extended trading.
Visa Inc (V)
- Q2 2025 EPS: $2.76 (Beat; estimate: $2.68)
- Revenue: $9.6B (Beat; estimate: $9.57B)
- After-hours move: +0.76%
Visa continues its steady growth trajectory, delivering another quarter of solid earnings.
Starbucks Corp (SBUX)
- Q2 2025 EPS: $0.41 (Miss; estimate: $0.48)
- Revenue: $8.8B (Miss; estimate: $8.81B)
- After-hours move: -1.25%
Weakness on both the top and bottom lines disappointed investors, weighing on shares slightly after the close.
First Solar (FSLR)
- Q1 2025 EPS: $1.95 (Miss; estimate: $2.44)
- Revenue: $845M (Beat; estimate: $835M)
- After-hours move: -11.39%
A revenue beat wasn’t enough to offset the earnings miss. Shares slid sharply in response to the underwhelming bottom line.
Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
- Q1 2025 EPS: -$0.54 (Miss; estimate: -$0.20)
- Revenue: $2.79B (Miss; estimate: $2.81B)
- After-hours move: +2.18%
Despite missing expectations on both earnings and revenue, the stock is trading higher after-hours — possibly on forward commentary or positioning.
Booking Holdings (BKNG)
- Q1 2025 EPS: $24.81 (Beat; estimate: $17.34)
- Revenue: $4.76B (Beat; estimate: $4.59B)
- Adj. EBITDA: $1.09B (Beat; estimate: $850M)
- After-hours move: -3.29%
Booking crushed expectations across the board, yet shares dropped in after-hours, signaling investor caution or sell-the-news behavior.
Atlanta Fed Lowers Final Q1 GDPNow Estimate to -2.7%
The Atlanta Fed’s final GDPNow estimate for Q1 2025 has been downgraded to -2.7%, down from the previous -2.4%. Excluding gold, the forecast falls to -1.5%. The official U.S. GDP release is scheduled for tomorrow, with consensus forecasts hovering around -0.3%.
In their own words:
On April 29, the standard GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.7 percent. The alternative model growth estimate is -1.5 percent.
“After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators release from the US Census Bureau, the standard and alternative model nowcasts of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth declined from -4.90 percentage points and -2.85 percentage points, respectively, to -5.26 percentage points and -4.05 percentage points,” the Atlanta Fed writes.
JOLTS: U.S. March Job Openings Fall to 7.192M
March job openings fell to 7.192 million, below the revised 7.480 million in February. Hires rose modestly to 5.411 million, while separations dropped to 5.137 million. The quits rate ticked up to 2.1% from 2.0%, while layoffs and discharges dropped to 1.558 million. Overall, the labor market showed resilience with increased hiring and fewer layoffs, despite softening demand for new hires.
Dallas Fed April Services Index Shows Deepening Slowdown
The Dallas Fed’s service sector outlook index dropped to -19.4 in April from -11.3 in March. Revenue growth edged up to +3.8 from +1.3, but employment fell sharply to -5.1. Selling prices rose to +8.4, while capex slumped to +0.6. Future revenue expectations plunged to +16.8 from +30.8, signaling weakening optimism.
Comments:
Electronics and appliance stores
- People are acting almost in a panic about the economy.
- We are beginning to get more price-increase notices from vendors. Product delays are increasing.
Furniture and home furnishings stores
- Tariffs are making it difficult with all the quotes we have out to customers. Manufacturers apply them to us, but we are having a hard time going back to customers to add the tariffs, so we are eating them. Although, I am for [tariffs] for the long term.
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
- Uncertainty is a major concern for us. How can you predict the balance of 2025 with the uncertainty that exists? You can’t make long-term plans without direction and actions leading to stability in the marketplace. The impact of tariffs is unknown!
- Our major concern is the effect of tariffs.
- The retail automobile business is embroiled in uncertainty as we struggle to understand tariffs’ effects on vehicle pricing.
- We are devoting so much time to mitigating the chaos this administration is creating that we have little time left to run our business.
Food services and drinking places
- Our supply-chain decisions are in wait-and-see mode while we await tariff certainty. Green coffee, bags, cups and other consumables make up most of our material costs, and all are sourced internationally. Anticipating the tariffs, we were able to forward-lock green coffee for several months, so we have not been impacted. We are hoping that the issue is resolved before supply chain lead times begin to threaten availability. We have been forced to research domestic suppliers for bags and cups. Most suppliers are Chinese, and tariffs will directly impact those costs. However, of note, the 145 percent Chinese tariffs are tolled on their cost, not on sale price. Most, if not all, foil and plastic materials necessary for domestic production are also supplied by China, so there is no truly realistic tariff avoidance available. This is a complicated matter, and absent resolutions to the tariff agreements within the next 45 to 60 days, our input and sales prices will rise on the order of 10 percent or more, which is material.
Support activities for transportation
- The drought in South Texas is still our major concern. The second concern is the uncertainty of tariffs.
- [We are] devastated. We are a trucking company specializing in transporting international shipping containers, and there is no other word that captures what we are facing. The fragile balance that underpins the global equipment supply chain has collapsed. Ocean container bookings have plummeted by 64 percent, which means 64 percent of our business has vanished overnight. Without incoming containers, there is nothing to reload, nothing to export and no way to keep our trucks moving. This loss of freight in the market will bleed into every area of transportation. I have already had to make the heartbreaking decision to lay off one third of my staff. Any further cuts would cripple our ability to operate at even the most basic level. At this point, we are staring down the very real possibility of shutting down entirely. Ten years of fighting to keep a company alive and people employed through a global pandemic, the freight recession of 2023–24, and now this.
April U.S. Consumer Confidence Plunges to 86.0
U.S. consumer confidence dropped sharply in April to 86.0, below the 87.5 forecast and down from 92.5 in March. The Expectations Index fell to 54.4, its lowest level since 2011. Inflation expectations rose to 7.0% from 6.2%. Consumers across all age and income groups reported weaker sentiment, with the sharpest declines among those aged 35-55 and earning over $125,000.
“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession. In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record $161.99B in March
The U.S. goods trade balance for March posted a record deficit of $161.99 billion, sharply wider than February’s $147.91 billion. Imports surged by $16.3 billion to $342.7 billion, while exports rose $2.2 billion to $180.8 billion. Consumer goods imports jumped 27.5% month-over-month, while capital goods imports dropped 13.5%. The sharp imbalance is expected to drag heavily on Q1 GDP.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rise in March Ahead of Tariffs
March wholesale inventories advanced 0.5%, beating estimates for flat growth. Retail inventories declined 0.1% month-over-month, while excluding autos, retail inventories rose 0.4%. Total wholesale inventories hit $908.0 billion, up 2.3% from a year earlier. Retail inventories reached $805.8 billion, up 4.8% annually. This marks the third straight month of gains, likely in preparation for upcoming tariffs.
U.S. Home Price Growth Slows in February, Still Positive
The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 4.5% year-over-year in February, slightly below the expected 4.7% and down from a revised 4.7% in January. Monthly price gains held steady at +0.4%. Separately, the FHFA reported a 0.1% increase in its home price index, with annual growth easing to 3.9% from a revised 5.0% in the prior month.
Bessent: We want a combo of long-term tariff revenue and lower barriers
- Comments from the Treasury Secretary
- Tariff revenue could be used for tax cuts
- I think tariffs will generate substantial revenues
- I learned to ignore survey data in my 35 years in the investment business
- Had substantial talks with Japan
- India easier to negotiate with than other countries
- Asia trading partners have been the most forthcoming
- Tax bill will give certainty
- We want to see internet tax in EU removed
- White House will sign executive order on auto tariffs later today
Lutnick: Tariff adjustments give automakers time to grow US plants
- Comments from the Commerce Secretary
- Adjustments to auto tariffs are aimed at allowing domestic automakers time to growth US plants and employment
- Executive orders growth out of detailed conversations with domestic car makers
- Manufacturers of domestic autos will get a 15% offset for the value of those vehicles against parts imports
- All cars that are finished in the US that have 85% domestic content will have no tariffs
- Tariff relief to be phased in over three years to allow automakers to produce supply chains in the US
- Finish your cars in America and you win
- Automakers will pay either steel or auto tariffs, which ever is higher
- Auto makers told Trump they needed relief to boost hiring plans
U.S.-India Trade Talks Show Positive Momentum
Indian and U.S. officials met in Washington and reported “positive progress” on a bilateral trade deal. India is offering a “forward most favoured nation” clause as an incentive, and hopes to finalize terms that avoid Trump’s proposed 26% reciprocal tariffs. In-person negotiations across multiple sectors are set for end-May.
Ray Dalio on Tariff Fallout: “Too Late to Avoid a Global Reset”
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio issued a stark warning: the era of global trade and capital flow built around the U.S. is breaking down — and there’s no turning back. In a new note, Dalio argued that hopes for a negotiated end to the U.S.-China tariff fight are “naive,” and that companies and countries are already moving away from U.S.-centric trade and investment strategies.
“Exporters, importers, producers, and investors are realizing that regardless of what happens with tariffs, reduced interdependence with the U.S. is now a reality that must be planned for,” Dalio wrote.
He sees the damage extending beyond China. Supply chains are being restructured, and capital is being redirected globally in anticipation of long-term decoupling. What’s more, Dalio warned that the U.S.’s twin roles as the world’s top consumer and largest debtor are increasingly unsustainable.
“Relying on America to keep borrowing and buying — and on everyone else to keep lending and accepting dollar debt — is a bet the world is no longer comfortable making,” he said.
Dalio believes the current dislocations bear resemblance to the early signs of past historical breakdowns — monetary instability, political polarization, and fractured alliances are all flashing red.
While he hasn’t given up hope entirely, Dalio said it would take coordinated, pragmatic leadership to manage the transition well. He continues to advocate for his “3-Part, 3-Percent” fiscal strategy, detailed in his latest book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle — but admits that the political will may not be there.
“The window for smart planning is closing,” Dalio warned. “Investors and policymakers need to focus less on short-term headlines and more on the deep structural changes underway if they hope to survive what’s coming.”
Morgan Stanley: Weak Dollar Could Drive U.S. Stock Outperformance
Morgan Stanley sees potential for U.S. equities to outperform global peers, citing the falling dollar as a tailwind. The firm forecasts the S&P 500 trading between 5,000–5,500 absent major catalysts. Analysts recommend focusing on high-quality large-cap stocks, especially in cyclical sectors already pricing in a slowdown. While uncertainty lingers, U.S. equities may benefit more than Europe or Japan from near-term dollar weakness.
White House: Trump to Ease Auto Tariffs
A White House official confirmed that President Trump is expected to soften his auto tariffs, avoiding compounding levies on foreign-made cars and easing duties on foreign parts used in U.S. manufacturing. The move is intended to protect domestic automakers and secure a stronger partnership with U.S.-based production. Official measures are expected to be announced tomorrow.
Tesla Semi Truck to Enter Production by Late 2025
Tesla says its long-delayed Semi truck will finally begin production by the end of 2025 at its Nevada Gigafactory. The company targets annual output of 50,000 units as it scales through 2026. Previous milestones from 2019 and 2024 were missed, and recent tariff hikes on China have disrupted shipments of parts. Tesla also noted it may revise growth forecasts in three months due to global trade uncertainty.
Barclays: U.S. Credit Spreads Expected to Widen Again
Barclays warned that U.S. credit spreads, though recently narrowed, are likely to widen again in the next six months due to ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and global growth. While better earnings and limited bond supply supported spreads short-term, Barclays remains cautious on credit risk heading into the second half of 2025.
Carney: Will Meet Trump to Discuss Future of Canada-U.S. Relations
Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will sit down with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss the future of bilateral economic and security relations “as two sovereign nations.” Carney’s win for the Liberal Party came after a campaign fueled by anti-Trump messaging, which now places him under immediate scrutiny. His first statement emphasized a desire to reset the tone with Washington while asserting Canada’s independence.
Canada: Carney’s Liberals Projected to Form Minority Government
CTV projects that the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, will form a minority government following Canada’s election. Markets view the outcome as less favorable for the Canadian dollar, reflecting investor caution over potential policy gridlock and fiscal restraint under a non-majority administration.
Commodities News
Gold Edges Toward 1% Decline Amid Auto Tariff Speculation
Gold traded down nearly 1% on Tuesday, currently hovering around $3,313, amid speculation that President Trump may ease proposed auto tariffs. Any reduction in trade tensions would likely curb demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Market Repositioning: Traders are balancing positions ahead of upcoming U.S. economic data and potential policy shifts. The Fed’s rate path remains a core variable as rate cut expectations continue to firm.
Backdrop & Sentiment:
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC the U.S. is focusing on trade deals with up to 17 countries, adding that China “must make the first move” toward de-escalation.
- The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged to -35.8 in April, down from -16.3, echoing recession-era sentiment.
- The People’s Daily, mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, lashed out at U.S. tariffs in a strongly worded editorial Tuesday morning.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that appeasement would only embolden the U.S., stressing that remaining silent or compromising would lead to further aggression.
Upcoming U.S. Data to Watch:
- Q1 GDP (Wednesday)
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday)
- Fed policy decision due May 7
Despite the sell-off, many gold traders remain positioned for a bullish breakout, with volatility expected to spike on macro catalysts later this week.
Crude Oil Drops 2.63%, Closes at $60.42
Crude oil futures settled sharply lower on Tuesday, ending the day at $60.42, down $1.63 or -2.63%. The market is now hovering near key technical support levels.
Looking at the technical landscape:
- The 50% retracement from the April rally comes in at $59.96
- A swing low from April 16 sits just below at $59.86
- A drop beneath these levels could open the path to further selling, with the 61.8% retracement and April 10 swing low near $58.80 acting as the next downside target
Traders are watching these thresholds closely as the market reacts to demand fears and geopolitical developments.
Silver Rises Near $33.30 on Renewed U.S.-China Trade Uncertainty
Silver prices advanced to $33.30 as market anxiety over U.S.-China trade tensions resurged. Comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized China’s responsibility to initiate talks. Traders are also eyeing U.S. JOLTS data and broader macro indicators this week. Technical outlook remains bullish, with resistance at $34.60 and support near $30.90.
Oil Drops on Demand Fears Amid Trade War, Spanish Outages
Oil prices slid as U.S. data pointed to slower growth and China pushed back on tariffs. ICE Brent fell near $65/bbl. Meanwhile, Spain’s power outage halted refining operations across several plants, contributing to volatility. The U.S. continues to refill its SPR, now holding 397 million barrels, well below pre-COVID levels.
Palladium and Platinum Prices Dip in Early Europe Trade
Palladium fell to $947.45/oz in early European trading, while platinum dipped to $990.05/oz. Both metals remain under pressure amid cautious sentiment and weakening industrial demand.
Spain to Tap Strategic Oil Reserves After Power Outage
Spain will release three days’ worth of strategic oil reserves following a nationwide electricity outage, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez confirmed. The emergency measure is intended to stabilize energy supply as authorities investigate the cause of the disruption and prevent further strain on the national grid.
Europe News
European Stocks Close Mixed; Italian Markets Outperform
European equity markets ended the day with mixed performance. Italy’s FTSE MIB outshone its peers, rising 1.09%, driven by strength in auto manufacturers and banking names. Optimism surrounding potential easing of U.S. auto tariffs provided a lift, with Stellantis gaining 4.0% and Iveco advancing 2.3%.
Banks also contributed to the rally:
- UniCredit up 1.3%
- Intesa Sanpaolo added 1.4%
- Mediobanca climbed 3.6%
- Monte dei Paschi rose 2.7%
- Banca Generali gained 2.2%
Elsewhere:
- Germany’s DAX finished +0.80%
- UK’s FTSE 100 advanced +0.55%
- France’s CAC 40 slipped -0.24%
- Spain’s IBEX 35 declined -0.66%
Eurozone M3 Money Supply Growth Slows to 3.6%
Eurozone M3 money supply grew by 3.6% year-on-year in March, below the expected 4.0% and down from February’s 4.0%. Lending to households improved to 1.7%, while corporate lending edged up to 2.3%, reflecting cautious economic momentum in the region.
ECB Survey: Inflation Expectations Climb
The ECB’s latest consumer survey showed one-year inflation expectations rising to 2.9% from 2.6%, while three-year expectations ticked up to 2.5% from 2.4%. Growth expectations remained unchanged at -1.2% for the year. Trade war concerns are fueling fears of stagflation across the bloc.
Eurozone Confidence Indicators Decline
April’s final Eurozone consumer confidence remained at -16.7, in line with the preliminary reading. Economic sentiment dropped to 93.6, below expectations. Industrial confidence came in at -11.2, worse than forecast, and services confidence fell to 1.4 from 2.2.
Germany Consumer Sentiment Improves, But Tariff Worries Linger
Germany’s GfK consumer sentiment index rose to -20.6 for May, better than the expected -26.0 and an improvement over April’s revised -24.3. While this marks a moderate rebound, GfK warned that uncertainty from ongoing trade tensions, especially tariff-related risks, continues to weigh on consumer confidence.
Spain Inflation and Core CPI Exceed Expectations in April
Spain’s flash CPI for April came in at 2.2% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.0%. Core CPI rose to 2.4% from 2.0%. Although inflation is still above target, markets haven’t adjusted ECB rate cut expectations, with a 25 bps cut anticipated in June.
Spain Q1 GDP Growth Slows Slightly
Spain’s preliminary GDP for Q1 2025 grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below the 0.7% forecast. Year-on-year growth came in at 2.8% vs 3.1% expected. Household spending rose 0.4%, government expenditure increased 0.2%, and capital formation climbed 0.6%. Exports grew 1%, while imports were up 0.7%.
ECB’s Kazaks: Step-by-step rate cuts may continue
- Comments from the ECB policymaker Kazaks
- Step by step rate cuts may continue.
- It will depend on what happens with inflation, which depends on what happens with the labour market.
ECB’s Cipollone: Trade policy uncertainty could reduce business investment
- Remarks by ECB executive board member, Piero Cipollone
- Potential for sudden stops in capital flows, payment disruption and volatility in currency markets requires robust contingency planning.
- There are further signs that geopolitical considerations increasingly influence decisions to invest in gold.
- Recent increase in trade policy uncertainty could reduce Euro Area business investment by 1.1% in the first year and real GDP growth by around 0.2% in 2025-2026.
- The observed increase in financial market volatility might imply lower GDP growth of about 0.2% in 2025.
UK and EU Draft Joint Commitment to ‘Free and Open Trade’
According to a leaked draft obtained by POLITICO, the UK and EU are preparing to sign a joint declaration reaffirming their commitment to “free and open trade” amid escalating global protectionism. The statement aims to present a unified front against tariffs and reinforce their strategic partnership as economic allies.
Asia-Pacific & World News
China Officially Waives Tariffs on Ethane Imports
China has formally waived tariffs on ethane imports, confirming earlier reports. Ethane is used in plastics production, and previous tariffs had inflated the cost of Chinese plastic goods. The move is aimed at reducing manufacturing costs and mitigating inflationary pressures within the supply chain. Reuters with the report
China: U.S. Must Stop Threats if It Wants Trade Resolution
China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that the U.S. should cease threats and pursue dialogue if it wants to resolve the ongoing tariff dispute. A spokesperson reiterated that the trade war was initiated by the U.S. and that China remains open to discussions—but only on equal footing.
Goldman Sachs: Tariffs Threaten 16 Million Export Jobs in China
A Goldman Sachs report warns that up to 16 million jobs in China are at risk if U.S. tariffs persist and exports drop sharply. The most vulnerable sectors include communication equipment, apparel, and chemicals — all heavily dependent on U.S. demand. Nearly one-fourth of those jobs are tied to wholesale and retail operations linked to export production.
Trump Tariffs Deal Blow to China’s Economy, Says Nomura
Nomura economists estimate that U.S. tariffs now directly impact 2.2% of China’s GDP. The U.S. accounted for 14.7% of Chinese exports in 2024, rising to over 20% when factoring in re-exports and rerouted flows. With only 16.3% of goods exempt from tariffs, the economists warn that the damage is not confined to manufacturing — services tied to trade are now seeing ripple effects, indicating a broader economic drag.
China Allocates ¥81 Billion in Second Round of Special Bonds for Trade-In Stimulus
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued the second tranche of ultra-long special treasury bonds worth ¥81 billion (about $11.2 billion USD). The funds will support consumer trade-in programs, aimed at boosting domestic demand through stimulus measures. This is part of a broader effort to stabilize growth and encourage consumption by replacing outdated appliances and vehicles.
China’s Foreign Minister: Appeasement Only Encourages U.S. Aggression
At a BRICS meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned member countries against yielding to U.S. tariff pressure. Wang argued that concessions only embolden Washington, stating, “If one chooses to remain silent, compromise and cower, it will only make the bully want to push his luck more.” He accused the U.S. of exploiting tariffs as a leverage tool despite benefiting from decades of free trade and urged BRICS nations to reject “appeasement politics.”
PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.2029 (vs. estimate at 7.2781)
- PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.
PBOC injects 340.5bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%
- 220.5bn yuan mature today
- net injection is 120bn yuan
Iran Offers ‘Trillion-Dollar’ Investment Pitch in U.S. Talks
Bloomberg reports that Iran is courting U.S. interest with what it calls a “trillion-dollar” investment opportunity in its energy and nuclear sectors. The pitch is part of broader nuclear negotiations, with Tehran seeking sanction relief and foreign capital. Despite Iran’s worsening economic conditions and openness to deals, deep mistrust and Washington’s insistence on non-proliferation keep final outcomes uncertain.
NZ Treasury Cuts 2025–26 Growth Outlook Due to U.S. Tariffs
New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis said in a pre-budget speech that Treasury now expects slower growth for 2025 and 2026, primarily due to economic fallout from President Trump’s new tariffs. The revised projections could delay the government’s goal of returning to surplus by 2029. Willis said limited new spending in the budget reflects the need for caution amid heightened global risks.
Barclays: Japanese Life Insurers to Scale Back on JGBs
Barclays noted that Japan’s top four life insurers are either reducing or holding steady their JGB investments, particularly in the super-long segment. While some firms find ultra-long bonds attractive, most have already aligned asset-liability durations under new capital rules. Buying activity is expected to be cautious, with a focus on 30-year maturities and selective interest in 40-year bonds depending on liability profiles.
Japan Life Insurers to Cut $9 Billion in JGB Holdings
Nikkei reports that Japan’s largest life insurance firms are preparing to reduce their holdings of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by ¥1.3 trillion ($9.1 billion) during fiscal 2025. This marks a notable policy shift, with firms like Nippon Life planning to cut their exposure for the first time since 2016. The move is influenced by rising interest rates and regulatory adjustments, as insurers rethink long-term asset allocation strategies.
Crypto Market Pulse
Crypto Market Hovers Below $3 Trillion as Bulls Hold Ground
The cryptocurrency market cap has climbed 7.5% over the last seven days, stabilizing just below the $3 trillion mark. This area sits right beneath the 200-day moving average, a technical line that, if broken, could attract substantial institutional flows.
The Fear and Greed Index now reads 60, marking a shift into “greed” territory from sub-50 readings earlier this month. Historically, rebounds from such low sentiment levels often lead to continued market gains.
Bitcoin remains firmly in bull market territory, currently trading around $95,000. BTC has decisively broken above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and cleared local highs. A continuation of this pattern could broaden the uptrend across altcoins.
Fund Flows (CoinShares):
- Bitcoin: +$3.188 billion
- Ethereum: +$183 million
- XRP: +$32 million
- Sui: +$21 million
- Solana: −$6 million
Long-Term Forecast (Bernstein):
- BTC to reach $200,000 by end of 2025
- Could hit $500,000 by 2030
- Projected to touch $1 million by 2033 as halving cycles and corporate accumulation drive scarcity
Ethereum News: A proposal to raise the gas limit by 100x would theoretically boost its throughput to 2,000 transactions per second, dramatically improving network efficiency.
Monero Surge: Monero (XMR) soared 50% on Monday to its highest level in four years. Reports point to a $330 million Bitcoin transaction — allegedly stolen — being funneled into privacy coins like Monero and Zcash.
$278 Billion in Illicit Crypto Activity on Ethereum, TRON in 2024
Bitrace’s 2025 Crypto Crime Report found that Ethereum and TRON networks processed over $278 billion in high-risk transactions in 2024. Overall, high-risk addresses accounted for 5.14% of all stablecoin activity, totaling $649 billion. Escrow and gambling platforms were key facilitators, with illicit stablecoin use concentrated in USDT and USDC variants.
Cardano’s Lace Wallet Integrates Bitcoin for Cross-Chain Access
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson announced Bitcoin support in the Lace Wallet. Users can now manage BTC and ADA in one place, boosting Cardano’s multichain functionality. While ADA’s price remained steady near $0.70, technical indicators suggest a rally if the token breaks $0.74.
The Day’s Takeaway
Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments
United States
- Stocks closed higher across the board:
- Dow Jones +0.75% to 40,527.62
- S&P 500 +0.58% to 5,560.83 (sixth consecutive gain)
- Nasdaq +0.55% to 17,461.32
- Russell 2000 +0.56%
- Trade policy still in focus:
- Treasury Secretary Bessent says the U.S. is prioritizing trade deals with up to 17 nations.
- China is being told to “make the first move” on de-escalation.
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged to -35.8 in April — worst since the pandemic onset — pointing to broader economic anxiety tied to tariffs.
- Upcoming U.S. Data This Week:
- GDP (Wednesday)
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday)
- Fed decision (May 7)
Canada
- No major data today, but investor attention remains on newly elected PM Mark Carney, who has pledged to sit down with Trump to define “sovereign” ties.
- CAD trading reflects cautious optimism post-election, as markets assess potential shifts in trade and fiscal positioning.
Commodities
- Crude oil settled down -2.63% to $60.42 as demand concerns and key technical levels weighed on prices.
- Gold fell nearly 1%, trading around $3,313, as traders priced in rumors of softened auto tariffs from the White House.
- Oil fell sharply:
- Crude futures dropped to $60.42, approaching critical support at $60 and $59.86.
- Concerns persist around U.S.-China tariffs and OPEC+ plans to increase supply.
- Gold weakened amid lower safe-haven demand and fading tariff fears.
- Silver traded near $33.30, benefitting from trade tension headlines and its inflation hedge status.
Europe
- Stock performance mixed:
- Italy FTSE MIB +1.09%, helped by auto and bank stocks
- Germany DAX +0.80%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.55%
- France CAC 40 -0.24%
- Spain IBEX 35 -0.66%
- Optimism around eased U.S. auto tariffs helped Italian automakers like Stellantis (+4.0%).
- Broader sentiment remains tentative as traders digest weak macro signals and ECB rate cut expectations for June.
Asia
- China waived tariffs on ethane, reversing a costly decision that had pushed up domestic plastic production prices.
- Chinese state media and officials doubled down on anti-U.S. rhetoric, warning other nations against appeasing U.S. trade tactics.
- Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and the People’s Daily continue to issue sharp warnings over long-term consequences of U.S. tariffs on China’s economy and global supply chains.
Rest of World
- No major developments reported today in LatAm, Africa, or Middle East, outside of their exposure to trade-linked commodity volatility.
Crypto
- Crypto market cap holds just under $3 trillion, rising 7.5% over the past 7 days.
- Bitcoin trades at ~$95,000, firmly above its 50- and 200-day moving averages.
- Top fund flows (CoinShares):
- Bitcoin: +$3.188B
- Ethereum: +$183M
- XRP: +$32M
- Sui: +$21M
- Solana: −$6M
- Fear & Greed Index hits 60, climbing from “fear” territory just last week.
- Bernstein forecasts BTC to hit $200K by end of 2025, $1 million by 2033.
- Ethereum gas limit proposal aims to increase capacity 100x, boosting throughput to 2,000 transactions/second.
- Monero jumped 50%, linked to a $330M Bitcoin transaction allegedly funneled into privacy coins.
