📌 Markets in Focus: Volatility, Trade Tensions & Crypto Moves

🔹 Stocks: US indices closed lower as profit-taking hit equities. Meta & Palantir led tech declines, while European markets reversed gains.
🔹 Geopolitics: US-Russia peace talks advance, Trump’s tariff plans shake global trade, and Ukraine tensions escalate.
🔹 Commodities: Oil rises on supply concerns; gold steadies after hitting a record high.
🔹 Crypto: Binance Coin surges past $650, Ethereum ETFs gain traction, and Bitcoin remains rangebound.
🔹 Central Banks: Fed remains cautious, while the RBNZ cuts rates by 50bps and the ECB signals easing ahead.

Markets Digest: Stocks Hit Records, Gold Retreats, and Crypto Faces Volatility Amid Policy Shifts
🔹 Stocks: S&P 500 closed at a record high (+0.24%), Dow up 71 pts (+0.16%), but Palantir tumbled 12% on Pentagon budget cut concerns. Meta extended losses for a second day.

🔹 Commodities: Gold retreated from record highs, trading near $2,925 (-0.31%) after FOMC minutes tempered rate-cut hopes. WTI crude rose above $71.50 amid Russian supply disruptions.

🔹 Crypto: Solana wobbled at $170, facing bearish pressure. Dogecoin gained 0.30% on Elon Musk’s X funding talks, while meme coins shed $5B in open interest amid scams.

🔹 Global Developments: European markets reversed gains, with Germany’s DAX down 1.7%. Mexico cut its GDP forecast to 0.6%, signaling weak growth.

Markets faced mixed sentiment as stocks wavered, gold surged, and cryptos struggled amid shifting policies and geopolitical uncertainty.

🔹 Stocks: Dow -103 pts, S&P 500 flat, Nasdaq -0.27%. Higher bond yields pressured equities.
🔹 Gold & Silver: Gold hit $2,933 (+1%) on safe-haven demand & central bank buying.
🔹 Crypto: Bitcoin at $96K, ETF outflows weaken demand, Ethereum struggles at $2,620.
🔹 Geopolitics: US-Russia peace talks advance, Ukraine faces economic pressure.

📌 Tomorrow’s Focus: FOMC minutes, US housing data, and central bank commentary.

Markets started the shortened week quietly due to the US Presidents’ Day holiday, but key moves in gold, oil, equities, and crypto shaped the session.

🔹 Gold rebounded to $2,898 as safe-haven demand grew amid geopolitical tensions.
🔹 Oil stayed above $70, with OPEC+ considering delaying supply increases.
🔹 European stocks rallied, while US markets remained closed.
🔹 Crypto saw Solana plunge 9% as XRP & DOGE gained on ETF speculation.
🔹 Trump’s $500B Ukraine demand stirred global uncertainty.
🔹Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Expected to Cut Rates by 25bps

📊 Market Recap: Stocks Mixed, Gold Drops, Altcoins Rally

The S&P 500 missed a record close (-0.01%), while the Nasdaq gained (+0.41%), fueled by AI momentum. Gold fell below $2,900 as investors took profits, while altcoins surged, with XRP (+5.91%) and Solana (+2.88%) leading as Bitcoin dominance slipped. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales slumped, raising concerns about economic growth.

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North America News US Stocks Surge as Nasdaq Leads, Meta Extends Winning Streak to 19 Days The major US stock indices closed higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq leading gains at +1.50%, followed by the S&P 500 (+1.04%) and Dow Jones (+0.77%). The S&P closed just three points short of its record high of 6,118.71, as strong earnings and momentum in tech stocks fueled optimism. 📈 Final Market Performance: Stock-Specific Highlights: Twilio Achieves First-Ever GAAP Operating Profitability in Q4 Twilio ($TWLO) reported Q4 revenue of $1.19 billion (+11% YoY), marking its first quarter of GAAP operating profitability. Key Financial Highlights: 📊 2025 Outlook: With strong revenue growth, improved cost management, and a new share buyback program, Twilio’s bullish momentum could continue into 2025. Coinbase Delivers Blowout Q4 Earnings as Crypto Trading Surges Coinbase ($COIN) reported Q4 revenue of $2.27 billion, far exceeding estimates of $1.87 billion, as crypto trading activity surged. 📊 Key Financial Metrics: 📈 Business Performance: 🔎 Market Outlook: With record-breaking trading volumes, improving regulatory clarity, and strong financial execution, Coinbase is well-positioned for continued momentum into 2025. US treasury sells $25 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.748% NY Fed: Q4 total household debt rose 0.5% to $18.04 trillion US January PPI +3.5% vs +3.2% y/y expected There were some big upward revisions to the December numbers but it doesn’t really matter. The headline numbers are +0.5% and +0.4% back-to-back which is an unpleasant acceleration. US initial jobless claims 213K versus 215K estimate Trump announces reciprocal tariffs: Could begin to impose some tariffs “within weeks” Statement from the White House: Senior Trump official: Hope to have bilateral trade deal with India this year Goldman Sachs revises core PCE inflation forecast higher after CPI report Goldman Sachs has adjusted its inflation outlook following the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, now estimating that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.35% in January, slightly above its previous 0.32% forecast. This would place the year-over-year core PCE inflation rate at 2.64%. The investment bank also expects headline PCE inflation to have increased 0.38% month-over-month, translating to an annual rise of 2.51%. Additionally, they note that residual seasonality effects in core PCE components will likely shift from a 5 basis point drag in December to a 4 basis point boost in January. Meanwhile, Goldman estimates that market-based core PCE, a measure that excludes imputed and volatile components, rose 0.26% in January. Bank of America: Strong CPI underscores Fed’s caution, rate hikes back in discussion Bank of America analysts say the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report delivered another upside surprise, reinforcing the case for the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold. The headline CPI rose 0.5% in January (0.467% unrounded), pushing the annual rate to 3.0%, while core CPI—which strips out food and energy—increased 0.4% (0.446% unrounded), bringing the year-over-year figure to 3.3%. “The bottom line is clear: the Fed has no reason to cut further,” the analysts wrote, noting that inflation remains stuck above the central bank’s 2% target and the unemployment rate nearly dipped into the 3% range in January. While they still see the threshold for additional rate hikes as high, Bank of America argues that tightening should now be back in the conversation following the stronger-than-expected inflation data. Barclays says a Fed rate cut still expected in 2025, but the risks of no cut is rising Barclays analysts maintain their expectation of a single Federal Reserve rate cut this year, but warn that the risks of no cuts at all are increasing. In their latest assessment, they highlight growing market focus on the possibility of rate hikes, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and a resilient U.S. economy. While Barclays still sees monetary easing on the horizon, they acknowledge that stronger-than-expected economic data could delay or even eliminate the need for cuts in 2025. With the Fed keeping a data-dependent approach, market participants are closely watching upcoming inflation reports and labor market trends for further policy signals. Fed likely to stay on hold despite strong CPI, rate cuts expected in Q3 TD economists suggest that while the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is not encouraging from the Federal Reserve’s perspective, it should not be viewed as a signal of sustained inflationary pressures. The firm cautions against extrapolating January’s strength into the medium-term inflation outlook, emphasizing that the key takeaway is that the data will likely keep the Fed on the sidelines for now—aligning with TD’s long-standing view. Despite the inflation surprise, TD maintains that the Fed will preserve its easing bias, remaining in a wait-and-see mode as it looks for further clarity from upcoming economic data. The firm continues to expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to begin cutting rates in the third quarter of 2025. While the bar for rate hikes remains high, TD acknowledges that policymakers will need more confidence that inflation is sustainably cooling before committing to any easing. Morgan Stanley hasn’t changed its Federal Reserve forecast despite strong US CPI report In response to the data Morgan Stanley have maintained their call for just one Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut this year, in June. Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data signals a firm reading for core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, though likely softer than the January 24 print. The Wall Street Journal says Trump’s call for rate cuts defies inflation reality The Wall Street Journal editorial board questions Donald Trump’s understanding of monetary policy, arguing that his recent call for lower interest rates contradicts economic fundamentals. Trump’s demand came on the same day inflation rose for the third straight month, with CPI up 0.5% in January, pushing the 12-month rate back to 3%. The Journal is gated, but here is the link if you can access it: The editorial notes that higher tariffs, which Trump also advocates, typically fuel inflation, making rate cuts even less appropriate. Markets reacted accordingly, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping

North America News US Stock Indices Close Mixed as Nasdaq Recovers, Dow and S&P Slip Wall Street saw mixed trading on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq (+0.03%) managing a slight gain after recovering from an earlier -228 point drop, while the Dow Jones (-0.50%) and S&P 500 (-0.27%) closed lower but off session lows. 📉 Closing Market Performance: Meta (+0.76%) extended its record 18-day winning streak, while Apple (+1.83%) and Tesla (+2.44%) advanced. However, Nvidia (-1.25%), Amazon (-1.65%), and Microsoft (-0.58%) dragged the market lower. Robinhood Delivers Record Q4 Earnings on Crypto Trading Boom Robinhood ($HOOD) posted strong Q4 results, with crypto trading revenue soaring over 700% YoY, helping drive total revenue to $1.01 billion (+115% YoY). 📊 Key Financial Metrics: Key Growth Drivers: With strong user growth and surging engagement, Robinhood is positioning itself beyond retail equities trading, though regulatory risks remain a concern. Reddit & Cisco Earnings Highlights ✅ Reddit ($RDDT) – Beat Expectations Reddit’s strong revenue and user growth reinforce momentum ahead of its highly anticipated IPO. ✅ Cisco ($CSCO) – Announces $15B Buyback & Dividend Hike With earnings season delivering major surprises, investors will now watch inflation data and Fed policy cues for market direction. US treasury sells $42 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.632% US January core CPI +3.3% vs +3.1% expected Headline CPI: Core measures: US January Federal budget deficit $129.0B vs $95.5B expected US House budget projects $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2025, or 6.2% of GDP US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 7 February +2.3% vs +2.2% prior Fed’s Bostic: The labor market is performing incredibly well Feds Goolsbee: Latest inflation read is sobering Powell: Today’s inflation print shows we’re close but not there yet on inflation Wall Street Journal on ‘what we know’ about Trump’s reciprocal tariffs The Wall Street Journal piece is gated: In brief: Mitch McConnell wrote a strong rebuff of tariffs today; it’s going to be tough to get it through Congress. https://www.courier-journal.com/story/opinion/contributors/2025/02/12/trump-tariffs-damage-kentucky-economy-bourbon-mcconnell/78393549007 Trump trade adviser: Australia ‘killing aluminium market’ – blow to tariff exemption hope Media reports on comments from Trump’s trade adviser Navarro are weighing on Australian hopes for an exemption on tariffs: Navarro spoke with CNN: Hassett: Reciprocal tariffs are a work in progress Fidelity’s global macro director says the uptrend in US equites “feels like late innings” Jurrien Timmer is Director of Global Macro at Fidelity: Trump says “we’ll see” when asked if reciprocal tariffs are coming Wednesday BOC Minutes: A long trade conflict with US would permanently cut level of GDP More info on US 25% steel tariffs would stack on other levies on Canada Read here for more. Commodities News Gold Steadies as Powell Maintains Restrictive Policy Stance Gold prices held firm at $2,897 on Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed a cautious monetary policy approach, signaling that rate cuts are not imminent despite inflation concerns. Key Market Drivers: With inflation proving sticky and Powell holding firm on restrictive policy, gold remains supported by safe-haven demand, though short-term upside may be capped by Fed policy uncertainty. WTI Crude Drops Nearly $2 on Speculation Russian Oil Flows Will Resume WTI crude settled $1.95 lower at $71.37 per barrel on Tuesday, as speculation surrounding a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war weighed on prices. Market Sentiment Shifts on Peace Talks With global supply dynamics evolving, traders will closely monitor geopolitical developments and OPEC+ policy adjustments for future price direction. Iron Ore Jumps to Four-Month High on Australian Supply Concerns Iron ore prices surged toward $108/t, the highest level since October 2024, as a tropical cyclone threatens Australia’s Pilbara region, home to some of the world’s largest iron ore ports. Key Supply Risks & Market Reactions Bullish Sentiment in Base Metals With supply disruptions looming and Chinese demand holding steady, iron ore and base metals could remain elevated in the near term. Gold Remains in Focus Amid Trade Uncertainty but Faces Near-Term Pullback Gold surged to an intra-day high of $2,942, driven by trade tensions and sustained central bank buying, before retreating to $2,892. Key Drivers & Near-Term Outlook Technical View: Retracement Likely Before Further Gains With US debt concerns fueling de-dollarization narratives and global trade friction persisting, gold remains well-positioned for long-term gains despite short-term pullbacks. Crude oil inventory for the current week build 4.070M vs estimate 3.028M Europe News European equity close: A solid day despite the CPI blip BOE’s Greene: Disinflationary process is broadly on track ECB’s Nagel: Closer we get to the neutral rate, the more appropriate for gradual approach ECB’s Villeroy: US tariffs will most likely have a negative impact on the economy ECB’s Holzmann: Inflation is still a threat due to tariffs Asia-Pacific & World News PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1710 (vs. estimate at 7.2971) Australian Q4 New home lending +1.4% q/q Reserve Bank of New Zealand preview – likely the final 50bp interest rate cut In brief: On the currency: Japan’s Foreign Trade Council says USD 1tln investment plan in the US is challenging Japan’s Foreign Trade Council Chairman says Japan’s USD 1tln investment plan in the US is challenging. But achievable if public and private sectors work together in a strategic manner. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will monitor the impact of US tariff and immigration policies Bank of Japan Governor Ueda: Japan Industry Minister requested the US exclude Japan from steel & aluminium tariffs Current indications from Trump are ‘no exclusions’. South Korea will hold an ‘export strategy meeting’ next week to discuss new Trump tariffs South Korea’s government plans to hold an export strategy meeting next week to address the impact of recent U.S. tariff increases, according to acting President Choi Sang-mok on Wednesday. Crypto Market Pulse Crypto Market Update: Binance, Dogecoin, & Bitcoin in Focus Binance Coin (BNB) extended its 7-day winning streak, surging past $650 following reports that Binance liquidated over $5.9 billion in BTC, ETH, and SOL holdings. The market is watching whether these strategic trades by Binance’s parent company will

North America News US Major Indices Close Mixed as Nasdaq Declines, Dow Gains Wall Street ended Tuesday’s session with mixed results, as tech stocks dragged the Nasdaq lower, while the Dow Jones gained 0.28%, and the S&P 500 closed nearly flat. 📉 Closing Market Performance: Stock-Specific Highlights: Earnings Highlights: ✅ Gilead Sciences (GILD) – Beat Expectations ❌ Super Micro (SMCI) – Missed Estimates ❌ Lyft (LYFT) – Missed Expectations ✅ DoorDash (DASH) – Mixed Results Market Outlook: While earnings season continues to drive individual stock movements, tariffs, Fed policy signals, and inflation data remain key factors shaping overall market sentiment. Investors will closely watch tech performance and economic reports for further direction. US treasuries auctions $58 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.300% US January NFIB small business optimism index 102.8 vs 104.6 expected The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.3 points in January to 102.8. This is the third consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 14 points to 100. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “overall, small business owners remain optimistic regarding future business conditions, but uncertainty is on the rise. Hiring challenges continue to frustrate Main Street owners as they struggle to find qualified workers to fill their many open positions. Meanwhile, fewer plan capital investments as they prepare for the months ahead.” Fed’s Williams: US to grow by around 2% this year and next Powell: We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust policy Powell: Don’t see any reason to be in a hurry to lower rates Fed’s Hammack: It’s likely appropriate to hold rates steady for ‘some time’ Fed expected to delay rate cuts as inflation risks rise, economists say (Reuters poll) A majority of economists surveyed between February 4-10 expect at least one rate cut by June, though opinions vary on the timing. Out of 101 respondents: Forecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banks Via Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal, collecting estimates: Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline US CPI, but core inflation to pick up Bank of Canada appoints Michelle Alexopoulos to governing council The BOC on Alexopoulos: Dr. Alexopoulos’ research focuses on the business cycle as well as the effects of technical change and uncertainty. She has conducted innovative work in the application of data mining and textual analysis to create indicators for economic modeling and forecasting. More recently, her research has looked at technological change, productivity and central bank communications. Canada December building permits +11.0% vs +1.7% expected Canada promises response will be “clear and calibrated” on US steel, aluminium tariffs Commodities News Gold Pulls Back After Hitting Record High Amid Powell Testimony Gold prices hit an all-time high of $2,942 before retreating 0.18% to $2,900 on Tuesday, as profit-taking and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony slowed momentum. Market Drivers: Powell’s Commentary & Economic Data Central Bank Demand & Market Expectations Gold’s next move depends on upcoming inflation data and further Fed commentary, with Treasury yields and geopolitical risks remaining key drivers. Silver Finds Support at $31.30 After Sharp Drop Silver prices plummeted to $31.30 before stabilizing in Tuesday’s North American session, supported by a weaker US Dollar ahead of Powell’s testimony. Key Factors Impacting Silver Silver’s Technical Outlook With global trade tensions rising, silver could remain in demand, but interest rate policy will play a crucial role in determining price direction. Crude oil settles up $1.00 at $73.32 Crude oil futures are settling up one dollar at $73.32. The price rallied to one-week highs, supported by a weaker dollar and supply concerns stemming from U.S. sanctions on Russian crude production. Additional support came from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, which raised crude selling prices for Asian buyers in March. On the downside, concerns over potential retaliation against President Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and finished metals imports could lead to higher prices and slower US growth. Looking at the daily chart, the price moved back above its 100 day moving average is $71.39 yesterday. The 200 day moving average looms above at $74.16. Last week, the price tried to extend above that moving average reaching a high price of $75.14 before rotating to the downside and closing at $72.25. The last close above its 100 day moving average was back on January 22. Oil: Energy complex is being pushed higher – ING WTI is trading above $72/bbl while ICE Brent edged above $76/bbl this morning, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes. Geopolitical tensions push oil prices up “NYMEX WTI is trading above $72/bbl while ICE Brent edged above $76/bbl this morning as the energy sector in Ukraine and Russia continue to face drone assaults, while signs of tighter supplies in Russia and rising geopolitical tensions further pushed the energy complex higher.” “According to media reports, drones attacked a Russian oil refinery plant in the Saratov region. The affected plant is part of the Rosneft oil company known as Kreking, one of the oldest Russian oil refineries. Meanwhile, Russia also targeted Ukraine’s gas and power facilities in an overnight attack.” EU’s gas storage targets are under pressure – Rabobank Europe continues to face high energy prices due to gas supply concerns, global trade tensions, and low wind levels. Gas prices have averaged €50/MWh so far this year, with German baseload power prices at €122/MWh, the highest since early 2023 and late 2022, respectively, Rabobank’s Energy Strategist Florence Schmit notes.  Europe continues to face high energy prices “The EU’s gas storage targets are under pressure due to unfavorable summer-winter spreads, leading to low storage incentives over the coming months. Current storage levels are already below 50% of capacity and risk being depleted to 30% by the end of March.” “Sanctions on Russia’s energy sector remain the biggest risk premium for European gas, with Russian pipeline gas accounting for 5% of Europe’s supply mix and Russian LNG accounting for 16% of LNG deliveries. China’s 15% tariff on imports

North America News Markets Rebound as Mega-Caps Lead the Charge Wall Street started the week on a strong note, with major indices bouncing back from Friday’s declines in a broad-based rally. The Nasdaq surged 1.0%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Dow Jones added 0.4%, closing near session highs. 📈 Closing Numbers: Mega-Cap Tech & Strong Earnings Fuel Gains Steel & Aluminum Stocks Rally Despite Tariffs Stable Inflation Expectations & Mixed Treasuries Earnings Pick Up Tomorrow While earnings news was light today, Tuesday’s reports will feature major names, including: 📊 Year-to-Date Performance: With earnings season in full swing and tariff impacts unfolding, investors will keep a close eye on corporate guidance and upcoming Fed commentary for further market direction. NY Fed Jan. survey of consumer expectations shows one year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% last Inflation Expectations: Commodity Price Expectations (Year-Ahead): Job Market Expectations: Household Spending Expectations: More Details on Prices: More details on Employment More details on Household US employment trends for January 108.35 versus 109.23 last month Elon Musk tries to buy OpenAI – report Here’s a new report from the WSJ: A consortium of investors led by Elon Musk is offering $97.4 billion to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI, upping the stakes in his battle with Sam Altman over the company behind ChatGPT. Musk’s attorney, Marc Toberoff, said he submitted the bid to OpenAI’s board of directors Monday. White House advisor Hassett on CNBC: Trump will stop waivers on steel White House advisor Hassett on CNBC says: Politico report indicates that Republican deficit hawks are beginning to dig in Politco reports on the latest state of play as Republicans try to use a razor-thin majority in the House to cobble together a plan to deliver on Trump’s tax agenda. They highlight a fight between the bill writers and budget hawks led by Chip Roy. The report says that the latest costing on promises they’re hoping to deliver is $5.5 trillion over 10 years after spending cuts. The number that lawmakers had tentatively settled on last Thursday — around $4.7 trillion — would make it virtually impossible to implement anything above an extension of the expiring tax cuts. Finally, the report also said the “many” Republicans are skeptical of using tariffs to pay for tax cuts, which would be good news for non-USD currencies. Trump: I will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tues or Wed Commodities News Gold Soars to Record Highs Past $2,900 Amid New US Tariffs on Metals Gold surged to an all-time high of $2,911 on Monday as US President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, stoking fears of a global economic slowdown and rising inflation. The yellow metal currently trades at $2,905, with bulls eyeing the $3,000 level. Market Drivers: Why Gold is Rallying Fed Policy & Economic Data in Focus Gold’s Technical Outlook Gold’s safe-haven demand remains strong, but Fed policy and macroeconomic shifts will determine whether $3,000 is the next stop. Silver Surges Near $32.30 as Trump Tariffs Trigger Safe-Haven Demand Silver rallied to $32.30 in Monday’s European session, as investors turned risk-averse following Trump’s 25% tariff announcement on metals. Key Factors Behind Silver’s Strength Fed Testimony & Interest Rate Outlook Silver’s Technical Outlook With uncertainty surrounding global trade and Fed policy, silver remains well-positioned for further gains in the near term. Trump plans 25% tariffs on all imports of Steel and Aluminium – ING LME Auminium was steady this morning after Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all imports of Steel and Aluminium into the US. The US imports significant volumes of Aluminium and Steel from Canada, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.  US president imposes tariffs on imported Aluminium and Steel “In 2023, net US Aluminium imports were 44% of its total consumption, with Canada the biggest supplier, accounting for 56% of imports. Meanwhile, around 30% of Steel imports into the US arrived from Canada. Only last week, Trump delayed plans to hit Canada and Mexico with general import duties of 25%.” “With Trump back in the White House, uncertainty and unpredictability are running high. Prolonged trade conflict would slow global growth and hurt demand for industrial metals. In 2018, the US president imposed a 10% duty on imported Aluminium and a 25% tariff on imported Steel to promote domestic metal production.” “The duties on Canada and Mexico were lifted a year later after a new free trade agreement between the two countries and the US.” Oil prices go up after Trump announces new plans – ING In crude oil, prices rose in the early trading session today, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving above $75/bbl and $71/bbl respectively, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Oil market sees a second straight session of gains “The oil market saw a second straight session of gains as the US president announced more tariffs on Sunday. Oil prices are also receiving short-term support as the US imposed sanctions on an international network facilitating the shipment of Iranian crude to China last week.” “Meanwhile, drilling activity in the US recovered marginally over the last week. The latest rig data from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active US oil rigs increased by one over the week to 480 as of 7 February 2025. However, despite the weekly increase, the oil rig count is still down by 19 compared to this time last year. The total rig count (oil and gas combined) stood at 586 over the reporting week, up from 582 a week earlier.” “The recent positioning data shows that speculators decreased their net long in ICE Brent by 17,981 lots over the last reporting week to 289,723 lots as of last Tuesday. This was the first weekly decline reported since 31 December 2024. The move was predominantly driven by gross longs falling by 24,308 lots to 372,368 lots. For NYMEX WTI, speculators sold 51,252 lots for a second week straight over the reporting week, leaving them with a net long of 140,540 lots – the lowest since