North America News
U.S. Stocks Rally for Fifth Straight Day, S&P 500 Logs Strong Weekly Gain
Wall Street closed out the week on a high note, with major indexes extending their winning streak to five consecutive sessions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, adding over 300 points on the day and turning positive for the year (+0.3%). The S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5%, both finishing at session highs.
The market opened flat, weighed down by weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment data. The University of Michigan’s preliminary May report showed a drop in sentiment to 50.8 (from 52.2) and a surge in inflation expectations—1-year inflation jumping to 7.3% from 6.5%. These readings contributed to a cautious start.
However, as the session wore on, the pace of buying picked up, driven by momentum and fear of missing out. Most sectors joined the rally, with 10 of 11 in the S&P 500 ending in the green. Notable gainers included health care (+2.0%) and utilities (+1.4%).
Bond markets also reacted to the inflation expectations. The 2-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 3.98%, up from 3.93%, while the 10-year yield moved up to 4.44% from 4.40%.
YTD index performance:
- S&P 500: +1.3%
- Dow: +0.3%
- Nasdaq: -0.5%
- S&P Midcap 400: -1.1%
- Russell 2000: -5.2%
Friday’s session results:
- S&P 500: +0.7%
- Nasdaq: +0.45%
- Dow: +0.7%
- Russell 2000: +0.9%
Weekly performance:
- S&P 500: +5.1%
- Nasdaq: +7.0%
- Russell 2000: +4.5%
- Dow: -0.2%
Economic data highlights:
- April housing starts: 1.361M vs. 1.339M prior (revised up); building permits dropped to 1.412M from a prior 1.481M
- April import prices: +0.1% m/m; ex-oil +0.4%
- April export prices: +0.1% m/m; ex-agriculture +0.1%
- UMich consumer sentiment: 50.8, with rising inflation expectations and weaker household financial outlooks
Looking ahead, the coming week brings data on jobless claims, existing and new home sales, and updates from several Fed officials.
Consumer Sentiment Sinks, Inflation Expectations Surge
The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading for May dropped to 50.8, well below the forecast of 53.4 and April’s 52.2. Consumers expressed less confidence about both current conditions and future expectations.
- Current conditions: 57.6 vs 59.6 expected
- Expectations: 46.5 vs 48.0 expected
Meanwhile, inflation expectations jumped:
- 1-year ahead: 7.3% (up from 6.5%)
- 5-year ahead: 4.6% (up from 4.4%)
The surge in inflation expectations could complicate the Fed’s path forward on rate cuts.
U.S. Import and Export Prices Edge Up in April
Import prices in the U.S. saw a modest 0.1% monthly increase in April 2025, beating expectations for a 0.4% decline. Export prices also posted a 0.1% rise, in contrast to the forecasted 0.5% drop. March figures were revised lower, with import prices at -0.4% and exports adjusted upward to +0.1%.
On a year-over-year basis, import prices rose 0.1%, slowing from the previous 0.9% increase. Export prices increased 2.0%, down from 2.4%. The monthly rise in import prices was driven by higher nonfuel goods costs, which offset a continued decline in fuel prices.
March Factory Orders Revised Sharply Lower
Revisions to U.S. factory orders for March show weaker-than-expected momentum. Headline orders were adjusted down from +4.3% to +3.4%.
Excluding transportation, orders were cut to -0.4% from the initial -0.2%. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for business investment, were revised to -0.2% versus the original reading of +0.1%.
These substantial downward revisions suggest the manufacturing recovery may not be as strong as previously thought.
U.S. April Housing Data Slightly Misses Forecasts
April housing starts came in at an annualized pace of 1.361 million, just under the expected 1.365 million. That’s a modest increase from March’s revised figure of 1.324 million.
However, building permits fell short at 1.412 million, compared to the consensus forecast of 1.450 million. That’s also a drop from March’s 1.467 million. The data suggests the residential construction sector remains active but faces challenges maintaining momentum.
Barclays Walks Back U.S. Recession Call
Barclays has scrapped its recession forecast for the U.S. economy in the second half of 2025. The firm now expects 0.5% GDP growth this year and 1.6% in 2026, revising its earlier call of a mild contraction.
This upgrade reflects shifting sentiment, largely shaped by recent developments around trade policy. The eurozone forecast also saw an upward adjustment, from a projected 0.2% decline to flat growth for the year.
Fed’s Bostic sees just one rate cut this year amid uncertainty
- Comments from the Fed policymaker, Raphael Bostic
- Economic growth may be 1% or 0.5% this year.
- Expect slower growth but recession isn’t in my outlook.
- May have to push against inflation pressures from tariffs.
- US-China de-escalation changes my outlook ‘a little’.
JP Morgan’s Dimon Warns Recession Risks Still Loom
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the possibility of a U.S. recession remains real. Speaking to Bloomberg, he cited massive fiscal deficits, persistent inflation, and high interest rates as ongoing threats.
While JPMorgan’s economists now see the chance of a downturn at under 50%, the outlook remains unstable. Dimon noted that even this level of uncertainty could restrain business investment.
U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary says not concerned about persistent increases in prices
- Expects inflation will return to target level
U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Faulkender spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV:
- not concerned about persistent increases in prices
- expects inflation will return to target level
- US economy building foundation to accelerate in H2 this year
- confident that August timeline is earliest we have to worry about X date
Canadian Prime Minister & Mexican President to strengthen economies against future shocks
- PM Carney and President Sheinbaum spoke
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney discussed with Mexican President Sheinbaum the imperative to strengthen their respective economies against future shocks according to a prime minister’s office readout.
Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez says inflation and economy slowing
- Governor speaking in a radio interview:
- the Bank will consider continuing weakness in the economy
- goods and services CPI is slowing
Commodities News
Gold Tumbles as Risk Appetite Returns, Weekly Loss Tops 4%
Gold prices sank sharply this week, shedding more than 4% as investors shifted capital into risk assets following signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. On Friday, spot gold dropped over 1.5%, trading around $3,187, down from an intraday high of $3,252.
The week began with a decisive move lower for bullion after Washington and Beijing agreed to a 90-day cooling-off period in their tariff conflict, which included a dramatic 115% rollback on some tariffs. This improved sentiment across markets and drew money out of safe-haven assets like gold.
Economic data throughout the week added fuel to the risk-on shift:
- Retail Sales cooled
- Housing figures were mixed
- Import prices ticked higher
- Consumer sentiment dropped sharply, with 1-year inflation expectations rising to 7.3%
Despite an initial bounce as traders priced in over 55 basis points of Fed rate cuts, the U.S. dollar strengthened and Treasury yields climbed by week’s end, compounding pressure on gold. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate pegs Q2 growth at 2.4%, suggesting ongoing economic resilience.
Outlook:
Gold’s slide could continue if Fed officials stay cautious on rate cuts and risk appetite holds. However, upcoming Fed commentary and PMI/housing data next week could reset expectations.
WTI Crude Recovers to $62 But Faces Supply-Driven Ceiling
WTI crude oil climbed back above $61 per barrel on Friday, posting a modest recovery after retreating earlier in the week. The bounce followed a test of the $55 support level, where buyers stepped in to defend what could be a forming double-bottom pattern.
Technically, momentum has improved with price reclaiming the 21-day EMA and the RSI stabilizing near neutral levels. However, the upside remains capped as broader sentiment battles with bearish macro headwinds.
OPEC+ strategy and Iran weigh on prices:
- OPEC+’s latest communications signal increased output flexibility, and members like Saudi Arabia appear reluctant to continue bearing the brunt of cuts alone.
- A rollback of voluntary cuts—2.2 million bpd worth—remains a real risk if quota compliance doesn’t improve.
- At the same time, fresh optimism around U.S.–Iran nuclear talks could unleash up to 800,000 bpd of Iranian crude back into the market.
While near-term technicals suggest further stabilization, the growing supply threats and geopolitical crosswinds continue to limit WTI’s recovery potential.
North American Rig Counts Mixed: U.S. Dips, Canada Climbs
U.S. rig count dropped by 2 this week, landing at 576. Oil rigs decreased by 1 to 473, and gas rigs also slipped by 1 to 100. Compared to a year ago, the U.S. has 28 fewer active rigs.
Offshore activity remains flat at 11 rigs, down 9 from the same period last year.
Canada’s rig count rose by 7 to 121. Oil rigs added 6 to reach 74, while gas rigs increased by 1 to 47. Year-over-year, Canada’s total is up by 7, with a significant increase in oil drilling offsetting gas declines.
U.S. Natural Gas Drops After Large Inventory Build
Natural gas futures at Henry Hub sank 3.7% following the latest U.S. EIA data, which showed a weekly storage increase of 110 billion cubic feet. Although this matched expectations, it exceeded the five-year average of 83 bcf.
Total gas inventories are now at 2.255 trillion cubic feet—down 14.3% year-over-year, but still 2.4% above the five-year norm. ING analysts say the higher-than-average build is likely to keep prices under pressure in the near term.
OPEC Still Predicts Tight Oil Market, But Risks Remain
OPEC has reiterated its outlook for oil demand, expecting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day through this year and into next. However, the organization has lowered its forecast for non-OPEC+ output growth, citing slower U.S. production due to lower prices.
If OPEC’s forecast holds, the oil market could remain undersupplied, supporting prices. Still, Commerzbank cautions that OPEC may be overly optimistic, especially given the headwinds from global trade disruptions.
Gold Whipsaws on Trade Hopes and Soft Inflation
Gold prices went on a $100 swing Thursday, dropping toward $3,120 per ounce before rebounding. The volatility came as easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand, while softer U.S. inflation data revived hopes for Fed rate cuts.
Commerzbank says the market is trying to balance long-term inflation trends with short-term geopolitical risks. The recent surge in gold—up more than 30% at times this year—isn’t purely about rates; safe-haven flows are playing a bigger role. If trade deals continue to roll out, gold could face downward pressure.
Oil Markets Brace for Possible U.S. Sanctions on Russia
Geopolitical tensions are heating up again after President Putin’s absence from Ukraine peace talks in Turkey. Oil traders are now eyeing possible new U.S. sanctions that could target Russia’s refining sector and energy trade routes through third-party countries.
Senator Lindsey Graham is reportedly backing new legislation aimed at tightening restrictions. If these sanctions go through, expect sharp movements in oil futures (WTI and Brent), with upside potential due to tightening global supply. Meanwhile, the ruble could come under renewed pressure.
Key indicators to watch:
- U.S. political developments regarding sanctions
- Movement in oil futures markets
- Ruble volatility against major currencies
Platinum Market Faces Third Consecutive Deficit
Commerzbank’s updated forecast shows the Platinum market heading into another major supply deficit, estimated at 736,000 ounces for the year. Demand is projected to fall by 2.6%, largely due to decreased usage in the auto sector and weaker investment inflows. Supply is also set to shrink by 1.3% due to a 5% drop in mining output from South Africa.
Meanwhile, Palladium is expected to balance out in 2025 after last year’s deficit of 501,000 ounces. Demand is forecast to decline 6.4%, with ETF outflows expected to weigh on investment demand. Supply will ease slightly, but increased recycling is helping to stabilize the market.
Palladium and Platinum Start Friday on the Back Foot
Precious metals opened weaker in Europe. Palladium (XPD) dropped to $959.22 per ounce from $964.05, while Platinum (XPT) eased to $991.20 from a previous close of $994.10.
Both metals remain under pressure amid concerns over reduced automotive demand and cautious investor sentiment heading into the weekend.
Europe News
European Stocks Post Fifth Straight Weekly Gain
Major European indexes ended the week in positive territory, capping a five-week winning streak:
Daily gains:
- DAX (Germany): +0.2%
- CAC (France): +0.3%
- FTSE 100 (UK): +0.6%
- IBEX (Spain): +0.8%
- FTSE MIB (Italy): +0.4%
Weekly performance:
- DAX: +1.1%
- CAC: +1.7%
- FTSE 100: +1.5%
- IBEX: +3.6%
- FTSE MIB: +3.1%
Optimism over economic data and earnings helped drive gains across the continent.
Eurozone Trade Surplus Surges in March
Eurostat reports that the eurozone’s March trade balance rose to €36.8 billion, up sharply from €24.0 billion the previous month. Seasonally adjusted data shows a monthly surplus of €27.9 billion.
Exports increased by 2.9% while imports rose by just 1.0%, giving the eurozone a strong net trade position heading into Q2.
Italy’s Final April Inflation Slightly Eases, But Core Pressures Rise
Italy’s consumer price index (CPI) for April was finalized at 1.9% year-over-year, just below the 2.0% preliminary reading. The harmonized HICP came in at 2.0%, also down slightly from the initial 2.1%.
However, core inflation is creeping higher, hitting 2.1% after March’s 1.7%. Services were a major driver, with price increases accelerating from 2.5% to 3.0%, raising concerns about inflation stickiness in the services sector.
SNB’s Schlegel: Switzerland is not a currency manipulator
- Comments from the SNB Chairman
- Switzerland is not a currency manipulator.
- We have only acted to dampen the overvaluation of the Franc which threatened price stability.
- Currency market interventions are not about gaining a competitive advantage for Switzerland.
- Technical experts in the US understand the Swiss position.
- Cannot rule out that negative rates could be a necessary instrument in the future.
- National bank does not like negative rates.
ECB’s Kazāks: Meeting-by-meeting approach is right
- Remark by ECB policymaker, Mārtiņš Kazāks
- A lot of uncertainty around trade measures
ECB’s Villeroy: We are not currently in a currency war but rather a trade war situation
- Remark by ECB policymaker, Francois Villeroy de Galhau
- Protectionism and uncertainty are having a negative impact on US economic confidence
Asia-Pacific & World News
Global Times: US-China Trade Truce Needs More Time
China’s state-run Global Times says the current 90-day trade pause isn’t nearly long enough for meaningful outcomes. The editorial urges Washington to pursue “mutually beneficial” cooperation and consider extending the negotiation window.
There’s skepticism about immediate breakthroughs, and analysts quoted by the outlet don’t expect China to unveil specifics on its pledges quickly. Given the pattern seen during the Phase One deal, this may well be a repeat performance with little substance under the surface.
China’s Vice President Stresses Opportunity for U.S. Business Ties
China’s Vice President Han Zheng highlighted the potential for expanded cooperation with the United States during a meeting with Invesco Chairman Rick Wagoner, according to state media reports.
Han expressed a desire for American companies to contribute positively to U.S.-China relations. The remarks appeared friendly but superficial, with no indication of any meaningful movement on trade negotiations. For now, substantial dialogue between the two countries remains pending.
Trump Administration Split Over Blacklisting Chinese Chipmakers
The Trump administration is reportedly divided on whether to immediately blacklist several Chinese chip firms. Officials fear such a move might derail recently renewed trade talks between the U.S. and China.
The plan to place these companies on the “entity list” follows a Geneva agreement over trade terms. Some inside the administration are pushing for delay to avoid jeopardizing fragile negotiations.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1938 (vs. estimate at 7.2085)
- PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead. 7.1938 is the strongest (for CNY) since April 3.
PBOC injected 106.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%
- 0bn yuan mature today
- net injection 106.5bn yuan
Australia Won’t Join U.S. in China Trade Confrontation
Australia has made clear it won’t align with U.S. efforts to escalate trade pressure on China. Trade Minister Don Farrell told the Australian Financial Review that China remains a critical economic partner.
“Chinese trade is nearly ten times more valuable to us than U.S. trade,” Farrell said, emphasizing that Canberra will act based on national interest, not Washington’s agenda.
RBA Rate Cuts Expected as Global Risks Weigh
A Reuters survey shows near-unanimous agreement among economists that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on May 20, bringing the cash rate to 3.85%. Further cuts are anticipated, with a median forecast of 3.35% by year-end.
ANZ notes that recent tariff developments have forced a strategic rethink: “We’re in a softer business environment with global uncertainty climbing,” a spokesperson said.
New Zealand’s Manufacturing PMI Shows Ongoing Growth
New Zealand’s manufacturing activity strengthened in April, with the PMI rising to 53.9 from 53.2 in March. This marks the fourth straight month of expansion and surpasses the long-term average of 52.5.
All sub-indices showed growth, according to BusinessNZ. While momentum is improving from last June’s low of 41.4, economists caution that global volatility remains a key risk.
RBNZ Inflation Expectations Tick Up Slightly
New Zealand’s Reserve Bank inflation survey for Q2 2025 shows a modest increase in expectations. The 1-year outlook now stands at 2.41%, up from 2.15%, while the 2-year expectation has inched higher to 2.30%, compared to 2.10% previously.
Though the broader trend in recent quarters has pointed to a steady decline in forecast inflation—bringing it closer to the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band—this recent uptick may cause unease. The central bank watches the two-year metric closely for signs of persistent pricing pressures.
Here’s the progression over recent surveys:
- Q1 2025 (Jan): 1Y at 2.15% (up from 2.05%), 2Y at 2.06% (down from 2.12%)
- Q4 2024 (Oct): 1Y fell to 2.05% (from 2.40%), 2Y rose to 2.12% (from 2.03%)
- Q3 2024 (Jul): 1Y declined to 2.40% (from 2.73%), 2Y slid to 2.03% (from 2.33%)
Higher two-year expectations could provide slight support for the NZD but complicate arguments for rate cuts.
Singapore Exports Beat Forecasts But Caution Lingers
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports rose sharply by 12.4% in April 2025, more than doubling expectations. Electronics and other goods led the way, with strong demand from markets like the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
However, trade with China and Malaysia fell, and officials remain cautious. The government has lowered its GDP outlook to 0–2% for the year and activated a task force to prepare for potential global economic fallout.
BOJ’s Nakamura: US tariffs policy pose greater uncertainties, serious challenges for Japan
- Remarks by BOJ policymaker, Toyoaki Nakamura
- US policy, overseas economies, FX do affect Japan’s economy and prices
- So that must be taken into account in monetary policy setting
- Japan’s economy has recovered moderately but some weakness still seen
- Economy is facing mounting downward pressure due to US tariffs policy
- Momentum for wage hikes has accelerated but could weaken depending on US tariffs policy
- Companies are increasingly adopting wait-and-see stance on capex due to US tariffs
- Uncertainty over economic outlook is heightening
- Cautious monetary policy approach is necessary
- Hiking rates prematurely when growth is slowing could curb consumption
- It is extremely unclear how trade and other policies will unfold
Japan’s Economy Contracts in Q1
Japan’s economy shrank by 0.2% in Q1 2025, worse than the 0.1% dip forecast and a sharp reversal from Q4’s 0.6% gain. On an annualized basis, GDP dropped 0.7%.
Consumption stagnated, and exports declined 0.6%. External demand subtracted 0.8 percentage points from growth, though capital expenditure rose by 1.4%, offering a rare bright spot.
Goldman Sachs Lifts Outlook for Asia-Pacific Markets
Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month projection for the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index, moving the target to 660 from the prior 620. The revised forecast reflects increased confidence in regional equity performance.
Japan’s Economy Minister Flags Risks from U.S. Trade Moves
Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa has acknowledged mounting economic risks tied to U.S. tariff policies following weaker-than-expected economic data. While domestic consumption and employment show modest signs of recovery, external threats are growing.
Akazawa stressed the government will continue urging the U.S. to reconsider tariff measures and will step in with liquidity support if needed. Despite no current stimulus plans, officials remain ready to adjust based on data.
Japan, US to resume tariff talks after G7 summit as Akazawa plans Washington visit
- Nikkei with the info
Japan, US to resume tariff talks after G7 summit as Akazawa plans Washington visit
Japan and the United States are preparing for a third round of negotiations over trade tariffs, aiming to resume talks later this month.
The discussions are part of ongoing efforts to ease tensions following recent U.S. tariff hikes under the Trump administration. Japan’s chief negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is expected to travel to the U.S. for the talks shortly after attending the upcoming Group of Seven (G7) meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors. That summit, set to be held next week, is likely to feature prominently in setting the tone for bilateral discussions, with both sides under pressure to find common ground on trade imbalances and tariff rollbacks.
Akazawa will attend the summit for finance ministers and central bankers being held Banff, Alberta, Canada on May 20 -22. This is being held ahead of the 2025 G7 Leaders’ Summit, which will be in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada from June 15 to 17.
Japan finance minister Kato: Will seek to have a meeting with Bessent, discuss FX and other matters
Japan finance minister Kato:
- Convinced that Bessent is a reliable counterpart able to have constructive dialogue, will continue to closely coordinate with him
- Reaffirmed with Bessent in talks on April 24 that excessive Forex volatility has averse impact on economy
- Will continue talks with him based on this understanding
- Will seek to have a meeting with Bessent, discuss FX and other matters
South Korea says there is possibility trade deal might come after 8 July deadline
- Further remarks by South Korea’s trade chief Ahn Duk-geun
- Emphasised importance of auto, steel sectors during talks with Greer
- Has set up formal negotiation framework with the US
- Next ministerial-level meeting expected to be held in the middle of June
South Korea Export Price Growth Slows Sharply
April data from South Korea’s central bank reveals the slowest increase in export prices since December 2023, with year-on-year growth falling to just 0.7%. Import prices, meanwhile, plunged 2.3%—the biggest drop since October 2024.
The data also showed a stark outflow of foreign capital from equities, with net investment down 13.59 trillion won. In contrast, foreign interest in local bonds rose significantly.
South Korea Faces Persistent Economic Strain
South Korea’s latest Green Book update from the Ministry of Economy and Finance continues its bleak tone for a fifth straight month. The ministry highlights increasing pressure on the economy, pointing to waning exports and sluggish consumer activity.
Weak demand at home, trade policy uncertainties, and job market instability in key sectors are adding to the downturn. U.S. tariffs have worsened external conditions, further dampening export momentum.
Crypto Market Pulse
Bitcoin Holds Near $103K Amid Trade Deal Buzz, Institutional Buying
Bitcoin is consolidating just below $105,000, with the $103,000 level holding firm as of Friday. Risk appetite is being fueled by new trade agreements and signs of rising institutional participation in BTC.
Recent headlines boosting sentiment:
- US-China: 90-day tariff reduction deal
- US-UK & US-Saudi Arabia trade pacts
- Softer US CPI data, increasing rate cut hopes
Institutional and corporate demand is also intensifying:
- Metaplanet (Japan): Added 1,241 BTC this week
- Ukraine: Exploring a national Bitcoin reserve
- DDC Enterprise: Kicking off a plan to hold 5,000 BTC
- Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows: $343M this week
Despite the bullish developments, some volatility looms as defunct exchange FTX begins a second round of creditor repayments. Still, if ETF flows continue and global policy stays supportive, BTC could see renewed upward momentum.
Ethereum’s Price Rebound Looks More Than Just a Blip
Ethereum has surged nearly 100% since bottoming out in early April, now hovering above $2,500. The recent Pectra upgrade appears to be a major catalyst, bringing a flood of new smart contract authorizations and greater dApp engagement.
Over 11,000 EIP-7702 authorizations have been recorded in the week since the upgrade launched, showing strong adoption momentum. Analysts also cite increased stablecoin activity, growing Layer 2 adoption by institutions, and short-covering from funds that previously bet against ETH.
Bernstein analysts identify:
- Tokenization and stablecoin growth (e.g., Stripe’s $1.1B acquisition of Bridge)
- Layer 2 platform revenue growth (e.g., Base, WonderFi acquisition)
- Reversal of ETH hedge shorts
Forecasts suggest a rising chance of ETH hitting $4,000 or more by year-end, as sentiment shifts.
Galaxy Digital Lists on Nasdaq, Eyes Tokenized Stock Rollout
Digital asset management firm Galaxy Digital officially joined the Nasdaq exchange on Friday and is already in discussions with the SEC about tokenizing its shares. The company wants to move its stock on-chain for use in DeFi platforms, including lending and staking.
CEO Mike Novogratz says the SEC is receptive to the potential of tokenized equities, but the project is still in its early stages. Galaxy aims to eventually offer tokenized versions of various traditional instruments like ETFs and bonds.
The Nasdaq listing marks a milestone for the company, which had previously been traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange since 2020. Institutional interest in tokenization continues to grow, with BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs also pursuing on-chain initiatives.
Crypto Market Hits Resistance, Caution Ahead
The crypto market has stayed range-bound between $3.26 trillion and $3.30 trillion over the past week, with a brief lift to $3.33 trillion. Bitcoin held its ground above $104,000, gaining 2% in the last day, but momentum appears fragile.
EOS (+11.7%) and Aave (+8.5%) led the gainers, while XPR and Monero each dipped 1%. Traders are watching closely as the market nears resistance, with a short-term pullback looking increasingly likely.
On-chain and technical updates:
- Deribit data shows a balanced BTC options market, slight put skew in ETH
- Miner selling has slowed, suggesting accumulation
- Over 11,000 smart account authorizations followed Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade, signaling broad developer interest
JP Morgan Sees Bitcoin Outpacing Gold
JP Morgan analysts believe Bitcoin will outshine gold through the remainder of 2025. The dynamic between the two assets has flipped recently, with Bitcoin rebounding while gold has stumbled since April highs.
They attribute this to capital flows moving out of gold ETFs and into crypto funds. Legal changes in states like New Hampshire and Arizona—allowing public funds to invest in Bitcoin—may also drive sustained demand.
Wisconsin Offloads Entire Bitcoin ETF Holding
The State of Wisconsin Investment Board has completely exited its position in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. According to a Q1 2025 SEC filing, SWIB sold off more than six million shares, exiting its $355 million position entirely.
Wisconsin had been one of the first U.S. pension funds to dive into Bitcoin ETFs, initially investing $164 million in early 2024. This full exit comes less than a year later, signaling a sharp reversal in strategy on digital assets.
The Day’s Takeaway
United States
Wall Street Rally Extends to Fifth Session
U.S. equities continued their upward streak, with the S&P 500 rising for the fifth day in a row and logging a weekly gain of 5.1%. The Dow Jones turned positive for the year, and Nasdaq surged 7% on the week.
Inflation Expectations Jump
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8, its lowest since 2022. Inflation expectations spiked to 7.3% (1-year) and 4.6% (5-year), increasing pressure on the Fed’s forward guidance.
April Housing & Trade Data Mixed
- Housing Starts: 1.361M (slightly below forecast)
- Building Permits: Fell to 1.412M
- Import Prices: +0.1% (above expectations)
- Export Prices: +0.1%
Treasury yields edged up, with the 10-year at 4.44% and the 2-year at 3.98%.
Canada
Rig Count Rises Sharply
Canada added 7 active rigs this week, bringing the total to 121. The increase was driven by oil rigs (+6), while gas rigs added one. This marks a year-over-year gain of 7 rigs, reflecting stronger activity in Alberta’s oil fields.
Commodities
Gold Tanks Over 4% as Risk Appetite Surges
Gold suffered a weekly loss of over 4%, dropping to $3,187 as capital rotated out of safe havens following the U.S.-China tariff truce. Rising inflation expectations and resilient Treasury yields added downward pressure.
WTI Crude Oil Bounces, But Faces Resistance
WTI rebounded to around $62, reclaiming the 21-day EMA after bouncing off the $55 support zone. Short-term technicals have firmed up, but broader bearish sentiment persists due to:
- OPEC+ signaling possible reversal of 2.2M bpd in cuts
- Renewed optimism for an Iran nuclear deal, potentially bringing 800,000 bpd back online
Europe
Markets Finish Strong Across the Board
All major European stock indexes posted gains Friday and closed a fifth consecutive positive week.
Weekly changes:
- DAX: +1.1%
- CAC 40: +1.7%
- FTSE 100: +1.5%
- Ibex 35: +3.6%
- FTSE MIB: +3.1%
Trade & Inflation Signals
- Eurozone March trade surplus: €36.8B vs €24.0B prior
- Italy April CPI (final): +1.9% YoY; Core inflation rose to 2.1%, driven by a jump in services
Asia
Japan Markets Track Mixed Signals
While Japan’s recent GDP contraction and ongoing inflation risks have weighed on sentiment, equities found some support in global trade optimism.
China Eyes Deeper U.S. Business Engagement
China’s Vice President Han Zheng said there’s “ample room for cooperation” with the U.S., following talks with Invesco’s chairman. Still, no substantial policy progress has emerged from either side.
South Korean Economy Under Pressure
South Korea’s finance ministry reiterated warnings of growing economic headwinds, citing weak exports, sluggish domestic demand, and rising external trade uncertainty.
Crypto
Bitcoin Holds Steady Near $103K
Bitcoin stabilized after failing to break above $105K this week. Despite consolidating, it’s supported by:
- Global trade deals fueling risk appetite
- ETF inflows ($343M this week)
- Institutional buying, including Metaplanet’s 1,241 BTC purchase
Ethereum’s Comeback Gains Traction
ETH sits above $2,500, up nearly 100% from early April lows. The recent Pectra upgrade has driven over 11,000 smart wallet authorizations, while increased Layer 2 adoption and stablecoin activity are enhancing bullish momentum.
