Introduction
In this week’s weekly market recap, investors navigated a turbulent landscape shaped by mixed earnings, Fed commentary, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. As the S&P 500 hovers near record highs, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic — buoyed by potential interest rate cuts and a resilient U.S. economy.
U.S. Equities: Earnings & Tariffs Shape Sentiment
Markets reacted early in the week to fresh tariff concerns as reports emerged of potential U.S. tariffs on European goods. However, robust earnings from select tech and financial firms helped steady the major indices.
- S&P 500: Closed at 6,296.79, modestly down by 0.01%.
- Nasdaq: Gained 0.05%, closing at 20,895.66.
- Dow Jones: Fell 0.32% to 44,342.19.
Top Movers:
Winners:
- Invesco Ltd (+15.28%)
- Regions Financial (+6.12%)
Decliners:
- Netflix (-5.10%)
- Viatris (-4.21%)
Treasury Yields Fall as Fed Doves Take the Stage
Treasuries saw strong demand this week, especially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled support for a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting.
- 10-year Treasury: 4.42%
- 2-year Treasury: 3.87%
- 30-year Treasury: 4.99%
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming comments are highly anticipated as investors search for dovish clues ahead of the policy decision.
Commodities and Currency Markets
- Gold: Up 0.28%, trading at $3,347.78/oz, as investors seek safety.
- Oil: Brent crude steady at $69.20/barrel.
- Forex: The euro climbed 0.25% against the dollar, buoyed by hawkish ECB remarks.
Key Economic Data to Watch
U.S. Macro Data Calendar:
| Event | Date | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Existing Home Sales | Wednesday | 4.00M (prev. 4.03M) |
| S&P Global Flash PMI | Thursday | Manufacturing: 52.5 |
| Durable Goods Orders | Friday | -10.5% (June) |
Earnings Season: Tech, Consumer, and Defense in Focus
Tech Highlights
- Alphabet (Google) – Cloud and advertising expected to drive growth (Wed).
- Intel – Expected to post declines due to chip tariffs (Thu).
- IBM – Eyes on consulting and software divisions (Wed).
Consumer & Industrials
- Tesla – Analysts brace for the worst revenue slide in 10 years (Wed).
- Coca-Cola – Steady demand likely to support strong earnings (Tue).
- American Airlines – Margins remain pressured (Thu).
Defense & Aerospace
- Lockheed Martin – Investor updates on F-35 development (Tue).
- Northrop Grumman – Progress on B-21 bomber program expected (Tue).
Global Market Developments: Tariffs & Inflation
U.S.–EU Trade Tensions
President Trump’s proposed 15–20% tariffs on EU exports rattled European markets and may escalate trade disputes ahead of November elections.
Emerging Market Watch
- Argentina: Economic activity rose 5.8% YoY in May.
- Brazil: All eyes on inflation data (Fri) as rate cut speculation mounts.
Strategic Insights for Investors
Fed’s Tightrope Walk
While inflation remains sticky, dovish signals from Waller suggest that the Fed may start easing soon — possibly as early as this month. Rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and tech could benefit.
Premium Travel Still Flying
Airlines are offsetting slower leisure demand by leaning into high-margin business class seats. Delta and American continue to prioritize premium travelers.
Chevron’s High-Stakes Bet
Chevron’s $55B purchase of Hess offers access to Guyana’s oil fields, but ongoing delays may impact short-term revenue targets.
Conclusion & Investor Takeaways
- Watch Powell’s speech: It may confirm rate cut timelines.
- Earnings season volatility: Tech and travel sectors are under the spotlight.
- Tariff risks: Prepare for increased global friction.
- Flight to safety: Treasuries and gold remain in favor amid uncertainty.
