Nvidia earnings, the FOMC minutes, and multiple global central bank decisions will define a volatile and event-driven trading week. Investors across asset classes are preparing for a confluence of high-impact economic releases—from US PCE inflation data to policy signals out of New Zealand and South Korea. This detailed weekly market outlook breaks down each key event, its background, potential implications, and strategic considerations to help investors stay ahead in uncertain conditions.
Global Economic Calendar Overview
Monday, May 26 – Caution Expected
- US Memorial Day & UK Bank Holiday: Both New York and London markets are closed, leading to low volume across equities and forex markets. Historically, low-volume sessions ahead of major data releases can produce erratic price moves. No significant economic data is scheduled.
Tuesday, May 27 – European Sentiment and US Orders
- Hungarian Central Bank (NBH): Likely to hold rates at current levels amid weak domestic inflation. The forint has stabilized after recent volatility, reducing pressure on policymakers.
- German GfK Consumer Confidence (June): A leading indicator of retail sentiment. After months of negative sentiment, any uptick could support EUR/USD.
- French CPI (May, Preliminary): Early inflation snapshot for the Eurozone. An upside surprise could fuel hawkish ECB expectations.
- US Durable Goods Orders (April): Forecasted to drop -8.2% MoM after March’s surge. Durable goods are a proxy for business investment—weakness here could foreshadow a broader slowdown.
- Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: A regional measure that often aligns with broader US industrial sentiment.
Wednesday, May 28 – The Pivotal Day
1. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Rate Decision
- Consensus: A 25bps cut, taking rates from 3.50% to 3.25%.
- Background: New Zealand’s economy has slowed under global trade headwinds. CPI is comfortably within the 1–3% target band.
- Forward Guidance: Markets are focused on whether the RBNZ signals additional cuts in H2 2025.
Strategy Insight: A dovish tone could push NZD/USD below 0.6000; watch commodity-linked currencies for follow-through.
2. FOMC Meeting Minutes (May)
- Key Themes:
- Trade tensions and their inflationary risk
- Fed’s balance between growth and price stability
- Language on labor market resilience
- Quote to Watch: Powell stated the Fed is in “no rush” to cut but remains “prepared to act quickly.” Traders want clarity on the timeline.
Impact: A dovish interpretation could spark a bond rally and lift tech stocks. Hawkish notes could trigger another leg up in yields.
3. Nvidia (NVDA) Earnings – AI Hype Meets Reality
- Estimates:
- Revenue: $43.09B
- EPS: $0.92
- Q2 Guidance: $46.59B expected
- Risks:
- China chip ban could cost $5.5B in revenue.
- NVL72 chip supply constraints are limiting potential upside.
- A new China-compliant GPU may offer partial mitigation.
AI Stocks Crossroads: Nvidia is the benchmark for AI growth. A miss could sink the sector; a beat may reignite the rally.
4. OPEC JMMC Meeting
- Focus: Potential 411k BPD production hike.
- Saudi Arabia’s Role: Pushing underperforming countries to comply with prior cuts.
- Outcome: Sets tone for the full June OPEC+ summit.
Oil Outlook: Extra supply = downside pressure. A hold = range-bound prices near $65–67 Brent.
5. Australian CPI (April)
- Forecast: 2.3% YoY (previous: 2.4%)
- Implication: Continued decline supports RBA dovishness.
Thursday, May 29 – Asia in Focus, US Growth Check
1. Bank of Korea (BoK)
- Forecast: 25bps cut to 2.50%.
- Why: South Korea’s Q1 GDP contracted -0.2% QoQ, sparking concern over domestic demand and exports.
KRW Reaction: A rate cut combined with dovish language could send USD/KRW to test 1,400.
2. US GDP (Q1, Second Estimate)
- Expected: -0.3% contraction confirmed.
- Insight: Weak growth with rising inflation paints a stagflationary picture.
3. Jobless Claims & Pending Home Sales
- Jobless Claims: Forecast at 230K—still historically low.
- Pending Home Sales: Sensitive to rates; a drop would reflect housing sector stress from high mortgage costs.
Friday, May 30 – Inflation Watch & GDP Print
1. Tokyo CPI (May)
- Relevance: Early insight into Japan’s national inflation. Closely watched by the BoJ for clues on potential tightening.
2. German CPI (Prelim)
- Implication: Could influence the ECB’s rate path. An upside surprise could lift the euro.
3. US Core PCE (April)
- Fed’s preferred inflation measure
- Forecast: 2.5% YoY
- Implication: The Fed needs consistent declines to justify easing in H2 2025.
Market Scenarios:
- PCE < 2.5%: Bullish for stocks, bearish for USD
- PCE > 2.6%: Inflation fears re-ignite, yields spike
4. Canadian GDP (Q1)
- Tariff Watch: Traders expect signs of economic drag from recent US tariff threats.
Strategic Asset Class Outlook
Equities
- Tech (NVDA, AI, AMD): Nvidia’s results will likely impact sentiment across the AI and semiconductor sectors. High beta, high volatility.
- Defensive Sectors (Utilities, Healthcare): Likely to outperform if rate cut hopes fade and trade war risks escalate.
Forex
- USD: Sensitive to PCE. A soft reading pushes EUR/USD higher; a strong one bolsters dollar strength.
- NZD: At risk from dovish RBNZ; may underperform AUD.
- JPY & CHF: Could strengthen as safe havens if equity volatility rises post-FOMC or Nvidia.
Commodities
- Oil: Highly reactive to OPEC output decision. More supply = bearish.
- Gold: Continues benefiting from real yield suppression and geopolitical tension.
Bonds
- US 10-Year Yield: Currently anchored near 4.50%. May break higher if PCE or Fed minutes surprise hawkishly.
- Credit Markets: Spreads widening modestly. Junk bond exposure risky ahead of earnings.
Investor Takeaways
- Nvidia Earnings (Wed): Critical test for AI bull thesis. One of the most important earnings events of the quarter.
- FOMC Minutes (Wed): Clarity on policy trajectory amid sticky inflation and weak GDP.
- US PCE (Fri): A key inflation barometer; strong numbers may kill hopes of summer rate cuts.
- RBNZ & BoK (Wed/Thurs): More global central banks begin to pivot toward easing.
- OPEC Decision (Wed): Oil volatility alert.
Conclusion: Prepare for Data-Driven Volatility
This week’s market outlook is shaped by a rare alignment of forces: high-stakes corporate earnings, core inflation metrics, global rate decisions, and supply-side dynamics in oil. The interaction of these themes will heavily influence not just short-term direction, but broader asset allocation trends heading into Q3 2025.
Investors should prepare for sharp intraday reversals, particularly on Wednesday and Friday. Diversified hedging strategies, tactical allocations to gold and bonds, and cautious exposure to high-beta tech may help navigate this complex market environment.
