Bitcoin slowed late Tuesday afternoon, retreating from local highs near $32.3K to $31.5K. Ethereum has lost 2.5% in the past 24 hours to $1930. Other altcoins in the top 10 are losing between 0.3% (BNB) and a 6.5% increase (Cardano) over the day.
Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, declined by 1.3% overnight to $1.30 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index rose another 0.3% to 46.3%. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index were up 1 point to 17 by Wednesday but still in “extreme fear”.
A possible signal of the market could be the capitulation of long-term investors, who sold BTC last week at an average loss of 27% compared to the quotes at the time of purchase. The crypto market is still full of optimists, while a real bull market is more likely to sprout from despair or oblivion.
We saw despair in March 2020 and an example of oblivion – more than a year of decline since the December 2017 peaks. It has now been half as long, so we should be prepared to see a rally in a falling market in the coming months, but not a repeat of the October 2020 to April 2021 rise. Bitcoin ended May down 17.1%, failing to live up to historical trends indicating a relatively successful month.
Over the past 11 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down four. The average rise was 16.7%, and the average drop was 11.3%. In the first case, BTC could end June at around $37,000, recouping almost all of May’s decline, while in the second, it could end June at near $28,200.