Bank earnings to further kickoff the earnings calendar tomorrow
The last earnings a cycle was brutal for companies that missed The banking earnings will start to come out tomorrow morning kicking off the earnings calendar for the current cycle.…
FOMC minutes: Participants ‘concurred’ that inflation outlook had deteriorated
The minutes of the June 14-15 FOMC meeting High inflation warranted restrictive interest rates Most participants saw downside risks to growth, including the possibility that Fed hikes have a larger-than-anticipated…
The bond market is no longer freaking out about inflation
5-year breakeven inflation rate down to 2.64% This chart isn’t getting enough attention at the moment. The bond market is no longer seeing a big inflation problem. Five year break…
Commodities versus everything else
Is that the trade right now? I really only see two trades out there: 1) Commodities rally and everything else falls There’s been a decade of under-investment in almost all…
Bed, Bath and Beyond highlights the ongoing inventory purge as consumer slow
Shares of BBBY down 21% today Today Bed, Bath & Beyond reported earnings that were well-shy of expectations with year-over-year comps down 24% in store and 21% online. Earnings were…
Flow models point to US dollar strength into month end
Citi model notes a strong signal We’re in the countdown to month and quarter end at the moment and that means flows trump economic fundamentals in terms of price action.…
Macron overheard at G7: Saudi Arabia and UAE barely have any spare oil capacity
If this is true, oil is headed much higher Part of OPEC’s power is its ability to make markets believe it can control prices. Lately, they’ve been offering hints that…
A 50 basis point hike in July is back on the table
The Fed may have overplayed its hand The Fed funds market is now pricing in a 29% chance of a 50 basis point hike at the July FOMC meeting, with…
About that soft landing
While there are holidays today, I wanted to present you with a preview of tomorrow‘s extensive analysis – as regards stocks and the economy: S&P 500 recovered from the intraday…
David Einhorn makes the case for gold
Highlights from his presentation from Friday The annual Sohn conference didn’t get much attention on Friday because it was virtual and because of the wild moves in markets but there…
The simple math on why oil closed higher again today
Another incredible performance for the oil bulls WTI crude oil fell as low as $112.31 today but turned around late in the day to finish up $2.27 to $117.58. We’ve…
The wounded credibility at central banks raises the odds of a hawkish policy mistake
Blackrock highlights the politics around central banks Central banks are at risk of “a backward-looking response to inflation rather than a forward-looking response to growth”. That’s a line from Blackrock.…
An energy crisis long-in-the-making will be long-in-the-fixing
What’s happened here It’s $121.78 despite signs of re-tightening the Shanghai lockdown. In the bigger picture, energy is by-far the biggest winner in markets this year. Here’s a tweet on…
Houston, we have a stagflation problem
Experts from the World Bank finally admitted that the risk of stagflation is getting bigger and more real. Better Late Than Never First they ignore you, then they laugh at…
The market is growing uneasy about a new European debt crisis
The euro reverses Christine Lagarde was asked repeatedly about ‘fragmentation’ in eurozone bond markets today. Once she even went off script to dwell on the topic further. The code word…
The market is pricing in a more-hawkish Fed
Illusions about a September pause are dead Today’s US inflation report laid bare some of the lies the market has been telling itself in the past few weeks. The idea…
US housing worries continue to ramp up as mortgage applications slow
Was this already priced in? US housing data offers an interesting look at how markets and economic data work. At the moment, the reports of a slowdown in US housing…
The bears threw everything at oil and it rallied anyway. It now looks unstoppable
What more do you need to see? Oil at $120 will be seen as cheap later this year If you were to go back and construct a bearish case for…
World Bank lowers 2022 global GDP forecast to 2.9% from 4.1%
A sign of the times. The prior forecast was from January Risks of stagflation, Ukraine war and China lockdowns hitting growth Recession will be hard to avoid for many countries…
Risk appetites return to start the new week
Overview: China and Hong Kong re-opened after the Friday holiday and equities rallied strongly. Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea advanced as well. However, India and Australia equities fell. Europe’s Stoxx…