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The Fed And The Banking Tremors
The Fed meets tomorrow, and today the banking situation is getting more and more tenuous. Over the weekend First Republic Bank went under. There was no way to slow the…
Are upside risks to next week’s CPI report brewing?
It’s all about the economic data right now with big moves coming on the heels of big releases. For a news trader, it doesn’t get any better than that. Aside…
Artificial intelligence isn’t just a technology story, it’s a macro story too
The AI revolution is here. Most of the content written about price action in financial markets so far this year focuses on the current state of the economy and the…
‘Big Short’ Burry Suggests the Stock Market Jump Is a Mirage
Legendary investor Michael Burry seems to think that this year’s market rebound will not last. Michael Burry is a historic figure in investing and especially amongst retail investors. His stock…
BlackRock Says Get Ready For A Recession Unlike Any Other And ‘What Worked In The Past Won’t Work Now’
A worldwide recession is just around the corner as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation — and this time, it will ignite more market turbulence than ever…
A 6% Fed funds rate would add a leg to USD strength
The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos is out with his latest and it’s not any kind of a leak but it taps into what many market participants are worried about, especially ahead…
The whole idea of emergency money is now tainted
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard takes a hatchet to central bankers and governments today for their handling or quantitative easing over the past 13 years. “Western central banks are guilty of an enormous…
There’s a fundamental tension and misunderstanding in the oil market
White House says determined to take every step necessary to shore up energy supplies There’s a fundamental tension in the oil market. Governments and consumers got used to the idea…
White House Says OPEC Is ‘Aligning With Russia’ And It’s Absolutely True
But what does it mean? A few points The White House is out with a comment saying that the OPEC+ production cut is a ‘clear’ indication that the bloc is…
We’ve just witnessed the abrupt end of the era of government free money
It’s time to price in fiscal tightening from governments globally and it will be painful And just like that the era of easy money for governments is over. At the…
A slow burn towards an emerging market currency market crisis is unfolding
Emerging markets are chewing through currency reserves as current account deficits build There are two types of emerging markets: Commodity importers and commodity exporters.The first category is headed for trouble.…
FOMO into Cryptocurrencies is Not Coming Back Anytime Soon
Investors and traders should prepare themselves that the market will stick to an oscillating pattern in the coming months. Market picture Bitcoin rose close to $25K on Thursday but failed…
CPI was enough for now to stave off 75 bps in September – CIBC
What’s next after CPI There were some big market moves after today’s CPI report but they would have been even bigger if a Fed decision was closer. As it stands,…
There is a profound disconnect in battery metals
GM says it’s open to funding EV battery minerals mining ventures Three headlines hit today: GM says it’s open to funding EV battery minerals mining ventures Ford raised the price…
Einhorn’s Twitter bet is a good demonstration of how hedge fund managers think
Why David Einhorn bought Twitter David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital has taken a position in Twitter, betting that Elon Musk will decide or be forced to buy the company. Much has…
Deep 2s10s curve inversion is a warning to the FOMC
2s10s spread hits 31 basis points Fed research and some officials have dismissed 2s10s inversion as a sign of looming recession but its track record is sparkling. Morever, an inversion…
How deep could 2s/10s invert?
The April low of -9.2 basis points broke yesterday The deeper inversion in the US Treasury curve is adding to recessionary fears today. US 10-year yields have fallen 6.7 bps…
Market turmoil: 4 things that are hurting global markets and lifting the US dollar
What is weight on the stock market and lifting the US dollar? Global markets have started the week in a bad mood. It’s a consistent theme with global equity indexes…
The market is increasingly pricing in the ‘peak inflation’ trade. What it means for CPI?
The CPI report is due on Wednesday With oil prices down $7.5% today and natural gas down 30% from the highs, there is a growing list of reasons to believe…