Round up of today’s market news

North American News

Market Kickoff: Mixed Performance Marks Start of Election Week as Russell 2000 Outshines

U.S. stock markets opened election week with a mixed performance, marked by declines across the major indices. However, the Russell 2000 index managed to buck the trend, closing with a 0.40% gain. Here’s how the key indices fared:

Major Indices Close Lower

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -257.60 points (-0.61%) at 41,794.60
• S&P 500: -16.11 points (-0.28%) at 5,712.69
• Nasdaq Composite: -59.93 points (-0.22%) at 18,179.98
• Russell 2000: +8.90 points (+0.40%) at 2,219.03

Earnings Spotlight: Palantir (PLTR) Surpasses Expectations

After the bell, Palantir reported strong third-quarter earnings, showcasing its significant momentum in the AI sector. Key highlights include:

• Revenue: $725.5 million, up 30% YoY and 7% QoQ
• GAAP EPS: $0.06, doubled YoY; Adjusted EPS rose 43% to $0.10
• U.S. Commercial Revenue: 54% YoY growth to $179 million, underscoring private sector AI demand
• Government Revenue: U.S. government sector saw 40% YoY growth to $320 million
• Free Cash Flow: $435 million, achieving a robust 60% margin

CEO Alex Karp emphasized Palantir’s central role in AI adoption, highlighting the company’s “AI revolution” leadership as it strengthens its position with U.S.-based clients.

Revised Guidance and Strong Financial Outlook

Palantir raised its full-year revenue and profitability guidance, driven by accelerating AI adoption:

• Q4 Revenue: Projected between $767M–$771M
• Q4 Adjusted Operating Income: Expected to reach $298M–$302M
• Full-Year Revenue: Revised to $2.805B–$2.809B
• Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Forecasted to exceed $1B

With a cash reserve of $4.6 billion, Palantir remains positioned to invest aggressively in AI advancements and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Market Sentiment and Traders’ Takeaway

Palantir’s increased guidance, solid revenue growth, and impressive government and commercial sector traction provide strong support for positive momentum in the stock. With robust demand for AI-powered solutions across sectors, Palantir stands as a key pick for traders focusing on the technology and AI markets. The company’s raised guidance reinforces optimism, suggesting that U.S. client demand could fuel sustained growth in the quarters ahead.

US treasury auctions off $58B of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.152%

• WI level at the time of the auction 4.143%

• High yield 4.152%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.143%
• Tail 0.9% vs 6-month average of -0.2%
• Bid to cover 2.60X vs 6 month average of 2.57X
• Directs 9.6% vs 6 month average of 15.7%
• Indirects 70.6% vs 6 month average of 66.5%
• Dealers 19.75% vs 6 month average of 15.76%.

US September factory orders -0.5% versus -0.5% expected

• US factory orders and durable goods orders revisions for the month of September 2024

• Prior month: -0.2% (revised to -0.8%)
• Factory goods orders ex transportation +0.1% vs -0.1% prior (revised to -0.2%)
• Durable goods orders -0.7% vs -0.8% preliminary. Last month was -0.8%
• Durable goods ex transportation +0.5% vs +0.4% preliminary. Last month +0.6%
• Durable goods ex defense -1.1% versus -1.1% preliminary. Last month -1.3%
• Durable goods nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.7% versus +0.5% preliminary. Last month +0.3%

New orders for manufactured goods in September, down four of the last five months, decreased $2.8 billion or 0.5% to $584.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today.

US October employment trends 107.66 versus 107.58 last month

• Employment trends data from the Conference Board for October 2024

• Prior month 108.48 revised lower to 107.58
• Employment Trends Index for October 107.66

“The ETI was nearly unchanged in October, holding steady at roughly 2018-19 levels, where it has persisted throughout the summer months,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at the Conference Board. “The labor market continues to cool from its rapid post-pandemic pace, but the ETI suggests that this trend may be leveling out. This comes at a time when we expect business uncertainty to begin lifting, as the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts start taking hold and uncertainty around the US election subsides.

“Although October’s jobs report provided mixed results due to hurricane and strike impacts, several labor market indicators within the ETI improved,” added Barnes. “We expect some of October’s data blips to reverse in subsequent months, and generally see an economy growing at a healthy pace heading into 2025 as inflation and wage pressures continue to moderate.”

US election imminent – JP Morgan says Fed to pause rate cuts on a Trump win

• Fed will cut this week but not in December on Trump win
• Expects higher rates under Trump, citing more expansionary fiscal policy

• “If you have a Republican sweep with the Trump victory, you will get much more expansionary fiscal policy, potentially a trade war, bigger deficits, and so higher interest rates”

On the Federal Reserve:

• If it looks like fiscal policy is going to add to the deficit, and add to fiscal stimulus, and add to inflation, they may feel that, well, if fiscal policy is going to be expansionary, we’re going to have to lean against that and slow off the easing”

If it’s a Harris win:

• “If you have a divided government with, say, a Harris victory, then I think you have a continuation of this slow, extended soft landing economy, but kind of dull”
• Fed likely to “stick to their dot plot until the economy tells them not to”

Goldman Sachs reiterated Fed forecast after weak jobs report. Fed to cut by 25bp this week

• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement due on Thursday November 7

Goldman Sachs, in brief:

• Strikes and storms were a weight on the October employment report
• The data is an argument for a continuation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) easing cycle
• Expect the Committee to cut by 25bp at the meeting this week, November 6 and 7

Final New York Times poll shows razor-tight Presidential race

• Trump makes headway in Pennsylvania

The Iowa poll late yesterday rattled betting markets and gave Kamala Harris a lift but the latest set of number from the New York Times/Siena may move things in the other direction.

That’s because it showed a tied race in Pennsylvania after previously giving Harris a four-point lead.

Here are the highlights:

• Michigan: Trump +1
• Pennsylvania: Even
• Wisconsin: Harris +3
• Arizona: Trump +4
• Nevada: Harris +3
• Georgia: Harris +1
• North Carolina: Harris +3

Commodities

Crude oil futures settle at $71.47

• Up $1.98 or 2.85%

Crude oil futures are settling at $71.47. That is up $1.98 or 2.85%. Helping to support the price today is:

• Supply Concerns: OPEC delayed its planned oil output increase for December by a month, tightening supply expectations.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Rising tensions between Iran and Israel fueled market concerns, with reports suggesting both sides are preparing for potential escalation.
• Dollar Weakness: A weaker U.S. dollar supported oil prices, influenced by U.S. election uncertainties and a surprising poll showing Harris as the frontrunner.

Technically, the price has moved up into a swing area between $71.51 and $72.43. It will take a move above that area to increase the bullish bias going forward.

OPEC survey: Output rises 190K bpd led by Libyan recovery

• The highlights of Reuters’ secondary sources

OPEC pumped 26.33 million barrels per day in October, up 195k bpd from September, according to Reuters’ influential secondary sources survey.

The rise was centered on Libya, which had curtailed production during a political dispute in September. Libya is not subject to quotas.

OPEC secretary general Al Ghais: We are very positive on demand

• Remarks by OPEC secretary general, Haitham Al Ghais

• There are some challenges but the picture is not as negative as some make it to be
• The world economy is doing well
• We are very positive on demand both in the short and long-term
• Peak demand is not going to happen, the world keeps on growing

ICYMI: US$3000 gold forecast from Goldman Sachs

• GS cite lower rates, central banks buying, ETF demand

A note from Goldman Sachs, this from late last week. Analysts at the firm are looking for a rise to US$3000 by the end of 2025.

GS on rate cuts:

“As an asset that doesn’t offer any yield, it typically becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates are higher, and it’s usually more desirable when rates fall”

On buying of gold by central banks:

• large-scale central bank purchases of gold have rejigged the relationship between interest rates and price levels since 2022
• GS estimates 100 tonnes of physical demand increases gold prices by at least 2.4%
• freezing of Russian central bank assets in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine have prompted emerging market central bank purchases of gold

GS point out that central banks in developed markets have tended to have relatively high holdings of gold, and with “China, for example, reports to have 5% of its reserves in the metal. Seen that way, some central banks in emerging markets are catching up to their counterparts in developed countries”

GS also cite ETF buying.

Bank of America bullish crude oil over the next month

• Gold positive in 3 – 6 month horizon

Bank of America are bullish crude over the next month futures contract roll:

• overweight Brent, gasoline, gasoil over a one-month horizon

Cite OPEC withholding output

• acknowledge mile surplus in global supply
• the risk of a US hard landing has receded
• still concerns over Chinese demand

Over 3 – 6 months they see

• weakening of global institutions (an upside risk for gold and previous metals)
• Fed rate cuts
• potential Middle East escalation
• aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus in China

OPEC+ agrees to delay December oil output increase

• OPEC+ makes the announcement

OPEC+ announced on Sunday that it will delay the planned December voluntary output increase by one month.

Last week there was a report that this was on the table so it’s not a big surprise. If anything, the oil market could be disappointed that it wasn’t extended for more than a month.

I expect any market reaction to be limited with the focus on the US election and China stimulus announcements that are expected Nov 8.

Brent closed Friday at $73.10.

Here is the statement:

The OPEC Secretariat noted that the eight OPEC+ countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, have agreed to extend the November 2023 voluntary production adjustments of 2.2 million barrels per day for one month until the end of December 2024.

In addition, the eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that were agreed to be monitored by the JMMC during its 53rd meeting held on April 3rd 2024, and to fully compensate by September 2025 for the overproduced volumes since January 2024 in accordance with the compensation plans submitted to the OPEC Secretariat.

The countries also noted the recent announcement made by Iraq and the joint statement made by Russia and Kazakhstan, in which they strongly reaffirmed their commitment to the agreement including the additional voluntary production adjustments and to their compensation schedules for the overproduced volumes since January 2024.

EU News

Eurozone October final manufacturing PMI 46.0 vs 45.9 prelim

• Latest data released by HCOB – 4 November 2024

• Prior 45.0

The headline reading is a 5-month high with the output reading also improving to a 2-month high. A slight improvement in fortunes in Germany helped but the real carry is Spain, with manufacturing activity there seen at a 32-month high. That being said, overall production and new orders continue to post declines albeit less intense than in the past month. But some good news for the ECB is that price pressures are at least continuing to ease but not necessary for consumers though. HCOB notes that:

“There is one bit of good news in these numbers: the recession in the manufacturing sector did not deepen further in October. Production dropped at a slower pace than in the previous month, and new orders fell less sharply. As a result, according to our GDP nowcast, which takes into account numerous other indicators in addition to the PMI, industry output could shrink by 0.1% in the fourth quarter.

“It is not encouraging that inventory drawdowns for purchased materials continue at an unusually high pace. The COVID-19 crisis is still leaving its mark here. The ongoing reduction in inventories is obviously related to the fact that companies purchased and stockpiled materials and intermediate goods at an unprecedented scale in 2021 and 2022. Sluggish global demand gives companies no reason to restock, which in turn weighs on the economy.

“The environment in the industry remains deflationary. This is good news for the purchase departments, but it seems companies are forced to pass on the corresponding price reductions in full to their customers. This points to fierce competition, which weighs on companies’ profit margins. We assume that competition from China plays an important role here.

“Delivery times have slowed for the second month in a row, despite the weak demand situation. Instead, it may indicate that geopolitical tensions are generating delivery problems for logistics companies in October.”

Eurozone November Sentix investor confidence -12.8 vs -12.5 expected

• Latest data released by Sentix – 4 November 2024
• Prior -13.8

Germany October final manufacturing PMI 43.0 vs 42.6 prelim

• Final reading released by HCOB – 4 November 2024

• Final Manufacturing PMI 43.0 vs. 42.6 expected and 40.6 prior.

Key findings:

• HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 43.0 (Sep: 40.6). 3-month high.
• HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 42.8 (Sep: 41.3). 2-month high.
• Deeper cuts to output prices signalled amid strong competition.

Comment:

Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“The mood in German industry remained glum in October. However, there are signs that an economic trough may have been reached. Although the headline PMI remained deep in recessionary territory in October, it showed a slight improvement from a very low level. However, caution is required when interpreting the values, as this is just a one-month improvement after all.

The coming months may shed light on a sustainable trend reversal. There is a glimmer of hope in the order situation. Although new work is still shrinking, the rate of contraction has slowed considerably, indicating a possible stabilisation in the coming months. All sub-sectors are stuck in a downturn. In the consumer goods sector, the performance of companies continued to deteriorate in October. Yet the declines in production and orders were not as severe as in previous months.

Things are looking even worse in the capital goods and intermediate goods sectors. Of particular concern is that the issue of job cuts is becoming an increasingly acute one, not only at Volkswagen, where three plant closures and extensive layoffs are up for discussion, but across the entire labour market. The monetary policy environment could be a small ray of hope for the manufacturing industry. The ECB cut interest rates again in October and is planning a further reduction in December.

The Fed opted for a reduction of 50 basis points in September. HCOB Economics expects one further interest rate cut in the eurozone and two in the US in 2024. These measures could ease financing pressure and support demand in the export-oriented German industrial sector. However, as long as structural problems persist in Germany, the outlook remains bleak. This is because companies continue to contend with the lack of certainty for investment, high energy costs as well as strong competition and weak demand from China.”

France October final manufacturing PMI 44.5 vs 44.5 prelim

• Latest data released by HCOB – 4 November 2024

• Prior 44.6

No change to the initial estimate as the French manufacturing sector stays in contraction territory. New orders observed an accelerated pace of decline with employment conditions also starting to be hit harder. The latter will be a concern to watch if it becomes more widespread in the months ahead, and not just for France. HCOB notes that:

“The French manufacturing sector remains mired in a deep crisis. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI for October remains firmly in contraction territory at 44.5 points, with production levels sinking at their fastest pace since January. Producers of intermediate and capital goods reported declining volumes, while only the consumer goods sector showed a slight uptick. This limited strength in consumer goods offers scant relief, as broader industrial performance continues to slide, highlighting the ongoing strain on French manufacturing.

“Some relief on the pricing front came as French industrial firms are encouraged by an easing in input costs in October. Reduced price pressures largely stem from weak demand dynamics, which are also driving down output prices, albeit only fractionally. As a result, manufacturers are finding some breathing room amid the broader economic slowdown, though a sustained demand upturn remains crucial for a meaningful recovery.

“The outlook remains bleak, with no sign of an upward trend on the horizon. The indexes for order volumes, particularly from international clients, have fallen to troubling levels. Reports indicate that geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy are severely impacting international sales. On the domestic front, cautious consumer spending and the struggling construction sector are further dampening demand. In response, companies are scaling back their workforces and are growing increasingly pessimistic about the year ahead.”

Italy October manufacturing PMI 46.9 vs 48.6 expected

• Latest data released by HCOB – 4 November 2024

• Manufacturing PMI 46.9 vs. 48.6 expected and 48.3 prior.

Key findings:

• Sharper decline in new orders signalled amid subdued export sales.
• Stocks of purchases depleted at one of the sharpest rates on record.
• Input and output prices fall.

Comment:

Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“Italy’s manufacturing sector continues its downward trend. The HCOB PMI registered another decline, reaching 46.9 points – the lowest level since June – indicating accelerating downward momentum. This weakness is not only reflective of an ongoing drop in production but also of a deteriorating order situation.

The plunge in foreign orders is particularly striking. Anecdotal evidence points to weak demand from the U.S. and neighboring European markets as primary drivers. Additionally, the weakness in the automotive sector is frequently cited as a significant factor. This is unsurprising, given the mounting pressures on the Italian automaker conglomerate Stellantis, which is expected to reduce its production in Italy by approximately one-third this year, according to reports.

The parallels to Germany’s Volkswagen are clear: both companies are suffering from higher international competition, especially from China, and sluggish demand for electric vehicles domestically. Thus, factory closures are now a realistic consideration in both countries. Weaker production is seen across all sub-sectors.

The consumer goods sector is reporting not only production cuts but also job reductions. The intermediate goods sector is grappling with significant losses in new orders. In October, companies attempted to stimulate demand through price reductions. At the same time, there was a reduction in cost pressures.

“The overall picture for Italy’s industry is sobering: production is shrinking, backlogs of work are decreasing, and demand for inputs is falling. In short, the sector is moving, but in the wrong direction. Companies are responding with workforce reductions, often by leaving vacancies unfilled and letting temporary contracts expire. Against this backdrop, future prospects look significantly worse, falling well below the historical average.”

Spain October manufacturing PMI 54.5 vs 53.1 expected

• Latest data released by HCOB – 4 November 2024

• Prior 53.0

Spain continues to be the shining light for Europe and is a contrast to Germany. Looking at the details here, both production and new orders both rose sharply, which encouraged greater purchasing and recruitment activity amongst firms. HCOB notes that:

“It was a strong start to the final quarter for Spain’s manufacturing sector. After a notable slowdown in growth throughout the summer, as indicated by our PMI data, Spain’s manufacturing sector saw a marked resurgence in both September and October. The index has shown further improvement, with an impressive rise to 54.5 points, indicating accelerated monthly growth. Survey respondents reported increased demand, which is reflected in stronger order books, driving companies to ramp up production.

“While production levels and order volumes are both on the rise, capacity constraints remain. The high demand in Spain’s manufacturing sector cannot be met in full, leading to an accumulation of backlogs. For Spanish workers, this is promising news, as reducing these backlogs and meeting the uptick in orders requires additional hiring. Companies are also attempting to bolster their stocks of intermediate goods to keep pace with heightened production demands.

“On the price front, no significant shifts have been observed in Spain’s manufacturing sector. Input prices have moderately increased according to companies, while output prices have declined for the second consecutive month. The drop in prices charged is attributed to slowing input price momentum, fitting well with a slight reduction in crude oil prices seen in October.

“All manufacturing’ subsectors are expanding in October. The intermediate goods sector has shown the most robust growth, with significant increases in both production and order volumes. The investment and consumer goods sectors are also experiencing higher production rates, with all three sectors actively seeking new employees.

“The outlook has slightly improved, thanks to the strengthening production levels and healthier order books. Manufacturing companies are looking to grow their workforces, and there is optimism for a stable economic environment, supported by the ECB’s easing measures. However, global downside risks persist, such as the upcoming U.S. election with unfavourable obstacles for trade and potential further escalations in the Middle East through potentially rising oil prices.”

Asia-Pacific-World News

China is reportedly reviewing a bill to raise local government debt ceilings

• Xinhua news agency reports on the matter

The move here is to largely deal with “hidden debt” or what is intricately known as debt arising from local government financing vehicles (LGFV). These are off-balance sheet debt that are incurred by local governments to finance big projects and infrastructure. For some context, local governments in the past were not allowed to sell bonds and so resorted to establishing LGFVs to raise funds.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1203 (vs. estimate at 7.1208)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

In open market operations (OMOs):

• PBOC injects 17bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%
• 241bn yuan mature today
• net drain is 224bn yuan

China’s annual parliament is underway – expected to approve more fiscal stimulus measures

• China’s National People’s Congress (NPC)

• The NPC is the country’s highest legislative body, serving as a key component of its government structure. It convenes annually to set national policy, approve budgets, and pass laws.
• In addition, the NPC formally elects leaders, such as the president and premier, and oversees the activities of other branches of government, though its actions are largely guided by the Communist Party of China.
• It’s the largest parliamentary body in the world, with nearly 3,000 delegates representing various regions and sectors across China.

The 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC), will convene for its twelfth session from November 4 to 8. Stimulus measures are expected to announced at its conclusion.

Chinese and Australian commerce ministers met over the weekend

• China uses Australia as a punching bag when Chinese relations with the US get tense.

China Commerce Minister met with Australia’s Trade Minister on Sunday

China readout comment:

China hopes Australia will continue to improve its business environment and treat Chinese companies fairly and equitably

Australian ANZ Job Advertisements for October +0.3% m/m (prior +2.3%)

• 2nd consecutive rise

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads up 0.3% m/m in October 2024

• prior revised from +1.6% to +2.3%

Australian October Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge +0.3% m/m (prior +0.1%)

• For the y/y comes in at +3.0% (prior +2.6%)

For October 2024:

• +0.3% m/m (prior +0.1%)
• +3.0% y/y (prior +2.6%)

Trimmed mean is the ‘core’ measure of inflation:

• +0.1% m/m
• +2.7% y/y ( a huge jump from +2.2% in the previous month)

RBNZ highlights geopolitical tensions as a risk to financial stability

• Reserve Bank of New Zealand

That latest RBNZ Financial Stability Report has been published by the Bank. The headlines crossing news outlets from the report are on financial; stability.

Some comments:

• Geopolitical tensions highlighted as risk to financial stability
• Concern about geopolitical tension has been increasing recently, potential impacts from geopolitical risks cannot be underestimated

Japan is closed for a holiday today

• Sports Day in Japan

Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today:

• Yen liquidity will be curtailed somewhat (New Zealand, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong are all open tough)
• Japanese stock exchanges are closed
• No US Treasuries physical trading today

Cryptocurrency News

Ethereum Slips Below $2,500 Despite State of Michigan’s New Investment in ETH ETFs

Ethereum’s price continues to face downward pressure as it hovers around $2,420, despite an $11 million investment from the State of Michigan Retirement System in Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While this investment marks significant institutional interest, Ethereum ETFs have underperformed relative to Bitcoin, as ETH’s dominance hits its lowest level since April 2021.

State of Michigan Boosts Ethereum ETF Holdings

The State of Michigan Retirement System, in its latest 13F filing, reported a position totaling $11 million in Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH), making it the first pension fund to invest in Ethereum ETFs since their launch in July. This allocation gives ETH a greater share in the Michigan pension fund compared to Bitcoin, showcasing rising institutional interest. However, Ethereum ETFs recorded only $13 million in inflows last week, falling short of Bitcoin ETFs’ substantial $2.173 billion inflows over the same period, highlighting ETH’s comparative underperformance.

Technicals: Key Support Around $2,258 May Spur Reversal

Ethereum’s price movement shows a continuing struggle, especially following a rejection from the $2,730 resistance level that led to a 10% decline and a break below the $2,500 mark over the weekend. The altcoin has also seen $24.53 million in futures liquidations in the past 24 hours, signaling mixed sentiment among traders.

Technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator, remain below mid-levels, reflecting ongoing bearish momentum. Ethereum may find support near a descending trendline from May 27, converging around the $2,258 demand zone. A price rebound is likely if ETH tests this level, which historically has attracted buying pressure. Conversely, a daily close below $2,258 could invalidate this support outlook.

Market Impact and Broader Sentiment

Despite the latest ETF inflows, Ethereum’s market dominance has declined to 13.09%, its lowest since April 2021. The continued decline in ETH ETFs, which have recorded $478.9 million in net outflows since launch, challenges predictions of Ethereum reaching new highs before year-end.

Ethereum’s current sideways movement suggests caution among investors, with the top altcoin needing a decisive bounce to regain momentum amidst ongoing institutional interest and a broader market undercurrent focused on Bitcoin.

UBS Asset Management launches a tokenized USD Money Market Investment Fund

• Fund built on Ethereum blockchain technology

News from late last week that UBS Asset Management has debuted a USD Money Market Investment Fund Token

• Represents latest move into blockchain-based financial products
• Part of broader UBS Tokenize initiative
• Follows successful digital bond repo transaction in November 2023
• Fund built on Ethereum blockchain technology
• Builds on UBS’s prior tokenization projects including CNH200M digital structured notes
• UBS previously piloted tokenized VCC fund with Singapore’s MAS Project Guardian

Crypto Today: Market Retreats as Bitcoin and Ethereum Decline, XRP Eyes Recovery Amid Election Speculation

The cryptocurrency market is facing downward pressure as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP experience declines. Speculation surrounding Kamala Harris’s election odds has led to increased attention, particularly in the wake of whale activity influencing market sentiment.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Updates:

• Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $67,800, reflecting a decline of over 7% since facing resistance near its all-time high of $73,777. If the downtrend persists, Bitcoin may find support around $66,400. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs recorded impressive inflows, totaling $2.172 billion last week—one of the strongest performances since their launch, according to Coinglass.
• Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced near $2,420, down 1% for the day. The asset fell below the crucial $2,500 psychological barrier over the weekend but could stabilize near the $2,310 support level if bearish momentum eases. Ethereum ETFs have also seen positive inflows, with $13 million reported.
• XRP has shown resilience with a 3% rise in recent hours, trading around $0.5095 as it attempts to recover from minor weekend losses. XRP’s prospects for an ETF may improve if the SEC approves recent applications from asset managers.

Market Dynamics:

• The crypto market is anticipating $46 million in cliff unlocks this week, part of a larger $2.24 billion total scheduled for November. This week will see increased circulating supply for several tokens, including NEON, XAI, and ADA, between November 4 and 10.
• The State of Michigan Retirement System has expanded its investment portfolio by adding $11 million worth of Ethereum ETFs. This includes 460,000 shares of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust and its Mini Trust, while the fund retains its Bitcoin holdings through Ark Invest.

Industry Insights:

• Recent Polymarket data indicates a surge in bets favoring Kamala Harris, raising suspicions of whale manipulation in the betting markets. Despite this, Republican candidate Donald Trump still leads with 54% support as elections approach.
• Notable figures in the crypto industry, including TRON founder Justin Sun and Sonic Labs co-founder Andre Cronje, have publicly criticized Coinbase co-founder Brian Armstrong. They claim that Coinbase has charged exorbitant fees for token listings, contrasting with Binance’s policy of not requiring listing fees from their projects.

As the market reacts to these developments, attention will remain focused on the potential for recovery among major cryptocurrencies, particularly with the upcoming election influencing sentiment and investment strategies.

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