Round up of today's market news *

North American News

US Stocks Edge Higher as Major Indices Set New Records

In a day marked by modest gains, major US indices closed at record levels, showcasing resilience amid a fluctuating market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 61.29 points or 0.15%, finishing at 42,124.65. The S&P 500 added 16.02 points or 0.28%, closing at 5,718.57, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 25.95 points or 0.14% to end at 17,974.27. In contrast, the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped, declining 7.607 points or 0.34% to 2,220.28.

Notable Movers

Winners:

Tesla: +4.91%
First Solar: +3.75%
Intel: +3.33%
Micron: +2.94%
Stellantis NV: +2.83%
Snowflake: +2.69%
BlackBerry: +2.52%
Arm Holding: +2.07%
Southwest Airlines: +2.03%

Losers:

Trump Media: -10.27%
Worthington Industries: -3.05%
Moderna: -2.34%
Corsair: -2.25%
Crowdstrike: -2.24%
Wells Fargo: -2.13%
Biogen: -1.80%
Qualcomm: -1.74%

Market Sentiment

Despite the mixed performance of individual stocks, the overall market sentiment remains positive, with record closings for the S&P and Dow. Investors are cautiously optimistic, reflecting confidence in the economic recovery as they navigate through a backdrop of ongoing market developments.

US September flash S&P Global Services PMI 55.4 vs 55.2 expected

The Sept 2024 flash PMI surveys from S&P Global

Prior was 55.7 (best in two years)
Manufacturing 47.0 vs 48.5 expected
Prior manufacturing 47.9
Composite 54.4 vs 54.6 prior
average prices charged for goods and services rising at the fastest rate since March
Rates of selling price inflation moved up to six-month highs in both manufacturing and services, in both cases running above pre-pandemic long-run averages to point to elevated rates of increase
A one- year high rate of cost inflation in the service sector was often linked to the need to raise pay rates for staff
Manufacturing input cost growth cooled to a six-month low
Optimism about output in the year ahead deteriorated sharply, the survey’s future output index falling to its lowest since October 2022 and the second lowest seen this side of the pandemic
Employment fell for a second month running in September and has now fallen in four of the past six months

Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The early survey indicators for September point to an economy that continues to grow at a solid pace, albeit with a weakened manufacturing sector and intensifying political uncertainty acting as substantial headwinds. A reacceleration of inflation is meanwhile also signaled, suggesting the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target as it seeks to sustain the economic upturn.

“The sustained robust expansion of output signaled by the PMI in September is consistent with a healthy annualized rate of GDP growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. But there are some warning lights flashing, notably in terms of the dependence on the service sector for growth, as manufacturing remained in decline, and the worrying drop in business confidence.

“Business sentiment, demand, hiring and investment are being subdued by uncertainty surrounding the Presidential Election, casting a shadow over the outlook for the year ahead at many firms.

“The survey’s price gauges meanwhile serve as a warning that, despite the PMI indicating a further deterioration of the hiring trend in September, the FOMC may need to move cautiously in implementing further rate cuts. Prices charged for goods and services are both rising at the fastest rates for six months, with input costs in the services sector – a major component of which is wages and salaries – rising at the fastest rate for a year.”

Fed’s Bostic: I supported a 50 bps cut as a compromise

Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic speaking
I supported a 50 bps cut as a compromise between remaining uncertainty around inflation and risks to the labour market.
The economy is returning to normal faster than expected so policy should as well.
Recent data show convincingly that the US economy is on a sustainable path to price stability.
A half-point cut at this meeting does not lock in a cadence for future rate cuts.
Risks to the labour market have increased, with the possibility of broad weakness higher than a year ago.
Price increases have narrowed and become concentrated in housing.
The economy is effectively near conditions that would be considered normal.
Businesses are becoming more careful in hiring but not considering layoffs.
The Fed is now facing two largely balanced risks.
Low recent levels of some recent inflation indicators portends well.
Business leaders say pricing power has all but evaporated.
The labour market is weakening but not weak.
A disagreement over the level of the neutral rate is inconsequential when rates are this high.
Recent dots show a fair amount of dispersion in opinion at the Fed.
The range of views about the path forward and debate over neutral is robust.
The Fed is not in mad dash to neutral, in favour of not rushing to judgement or assuming the job is done on inflation.
As long as consumer spending continues, there will be demand for products and therefore for workers.
I do not expect to see unemployment increase much further.
I expect demand will continue to sustain employment.
The labour market is not flashing red. I am optimistic about the future.
Higher supply has contributed to the rise in unemployment.
I expect some choppiness on inflation going forward, will wait and see what is needed on rates.
If the labour market deteriorates that is a reason for a faster pace to neutral, but that is not the base case.
Long-run inflation expectations remain relatively stable.
I feel that the neutral rate is in the 3.00-3.25% range.
As rates fall, the Fed will dive more deeply into estimating the neutral rate with models but also with surveys of consumers and businesses.
The Fed will have to let the policies of the next President play out.
Had earlier been concerned rate cuts would unleash pent-up demand, but that may be substantially less than thought.
Levels of excess savings have diminished for many households, but some still have cash on hand and could fuel demand.
The US is almost a split economy with some households living at their limit and others “flush”.
Will be paying close attention to upcoming immigration
Recent dots show a fair amount of dispersion in opinion at the Fed
Fed is not in a ‘mad dash’ to neutral, in favor of not rushing to judgment or assuming job is done on inflation
Does not expect to see unemployment increase much further
Labor market is ‘not flashing red’, optimistic about the future
Fed will have to let the policies of the next President play out
Had earlier been concerned that rate cuts would unleash pent-up demand but that may be ‘substantially less’ than thought
Feels neutral is in the 3-3.25% range
Excess savings have diminished for many households but some still have cash on hand and could fuel demand

Fed’s Goolsbee: ‘Many more cuts’ likely needed over the next year

Goolsbee says rates need to come down significantly

Comfortable with 50 bps, shows fed is focused on risks around employment, not just inflation
Inflation is way down from peak, labor market is at full employment
Keeping rates at decade-high does not make sense when you want things to stay where they are
To reach a soft landing you can’t be behind the curve
Rates must come down significantly
Golden path is in the books, inflation came down without a recession last year
Businesses say they see “steady as she goes” with surprisingly little discussion about inflation
Monitoring office building vacancy rates, making sure banks provisions for any losses on commercial real estate
Until the rate, falling inflation has meant Fed has been tightening
Consumer sentiment is not a good indicator for spending behavior
Until the recent rate cut, falling inflation has meant that has been tightening policy.
We are shifting back to a normal dual mandate mode.
We are 100s of basis points above the neutral rate.
If conditions continue like this, there are a lot of cuts to come over the next 12 months.
We have a long way to come down to get the interest rate to something like neutral

Fed’s Kashkari: We won’t declare mission accomplished on inflation

Remarks by Minneapolis Fed president, Neel Kashkari

It reflects progress on inflation, softening of labour market
Sees year-end rate at 4.4% and end of 2025 rate at 3.4%; same as median of Fed policymakers
Balance of risks have shifted towards risk of further labour market softening
Too soon to declare victory on inflation but disinflation process is on track
Policy remains tight, though uncertain on how tight that may be
Fed rate path will depend on totality of incoming data
Signals on economic strength has been ‘confusing’, with consumer spending surprisingly resilient
Little evidence that recessionary forces are building or that inflation could surprise to the upside
We won’t declare mission accomplished on inflation.
The labour market is strong, want to keep it that way.
Fed policy is still in a net tight position.
An uptick in unemployment is a bigger risk than inflation.
There is lots of ambiguity around what the neutral rate level is.
I expect smaller steps going forward for the Fed.
A 50 bps rate cut was a meaningful step to get the process moving.
The FOMC meeting had active deliberations over Fed rate cut.
A 25 or 50 bps rate cut, both would have been reasonable.
The election is not a factor in Fed rate decision.
There’s lots of uncertainty abour where the Fed will cut to.
I would love to get back to 3.5% unemployment rate.
The labour market has not been driving inflation.
Job market a lousy forecaster of inflation.
Penciled in 50 basis points more cuts in 2024.
Let’s take a step towards neutral, recognizing that we’re tight
Lots of ambiguity around what neutral level is
Fed policy is still in net tight position
Labor market is strong, want to keep it that way
50 bps was a meaningful step to get process moving
No one on the committee was saying we should be holding rates
There’s a lot of uncertainty about where Fed will cut to
The jobs market is a lousy forecaster of inflation
Says he penciled in 50 bps more in easing in 2024

UBS with 2 big reasons it expects stocks to keep performing strongly

Fed cutting into a strong economy

UBS says that history shows stocks have performed well in periods when the Fed is cutting rates while the US economy is still growing.

UBS says last week’s FOMC 50bp rate cut bolstered market sentiment in two main ways:

1. Powell expressed a desire to “recalibrate” monetary policy while the US economy remains strong, adding that policymakers saw no need for a further cooling of the labor market to bring inflation sustainably down to the 2% target

2. Powell sought to dispel concerns that the 50-basis-point cut reflected worries that growth is poised to slow abruptly

On the path ahead for Federal Reserve cuts, UBS says the Fed’s path now aligns with their projections:

50 basis points of further easing in 2024
and another 100 points in 2025

Canada August new housing price 0.0% vs +0.2% prior

New housing price index for August 2024

Prior was +0.2%
Prices were unchanged in 13 of the 27 census metropolitan areas
Prices increased in 8
Prices declined in the remaining 6
The index was unchanged on a year-over-year basis in August following a 0.1% increase in July

Commodities

Gold Soars to Record High Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Geopolitical Unrest

Gold prices surged to an all-time high above $2,630 on Monday, driven by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in November, alongside declining US Treasury yields. Currently trading at $2,627, gold has gained over 0.20%, showcasing its appeal as a safe-haven asset amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

Market Insights

Current Price: $2,630
Daily Movement: Up over 0.20% from the previous session.

Economic Data and Fed Commentary

US economic data released this week presented a mixed picture. The S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped from 47.9 in August to 47.0, indicating ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector. Conversely, the S&P Global Services PMI expanded to 55.4, slightly above estimates but below last month’s reading of 55.7.

Despite these indicators, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model projects a 2.9% growth for Q3 2024, suggesting resilience amid a softening labor market. Fed officials are expressing caution regarding aggressive rate cuts, with regional presidents highlighting increased labor market risks but maintaining flexibility in future policy decisions.

Geopolitical Tensions

The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah is further fueling gold’s safe-haven appeal. Reports indicate that the US is increasing troop presence in the Middle East in response to rising violence, a factor likely to bolster demand for gold as investors seek refuge from market volatility.

Daily Market Movers

Manufacturing PMI: Decreased from 47.9 to 47.0, falling short of forecasts.
Services PMI: Expanded to 55.4, above estimates but slightly down from the prior month.
Gold ETFs: Global physically-backed gold ETFs reported modest inflows of 3 metric tons last week.

Fed officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, emphasized a data-dependent approach, with Bostic noting that recent rate cuts do not lock in a schedule for future adjustments. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that additional cuts may be necessary in 2024.

As the market digests these developments, gold’s ascent reflects both the anticipation of looser monetary policy and the enduring allure of safe-haven assets amidst global uncertainty.

Crude oil futures is settling $70.37

Down $0.63 or 0.89%

The price of crude oil futures are settling down -$0.63 or -0.89% at $70.37.

The low price for the day reached $69.52 while the high price was at $71.78. At session lows, the price is at its rising 200-hour moving average. The price rebound moved up to test its 100-hour moving average at $70.39.

Going forward, getting above the 100-hour moving average or below the 200 hour moving average would tilt the bias in the direction of the break.

The move lower comes despite increasing tension in the Middle East.

Shell to shut production at two oil facilities in Gulf of Mexico

Wild weather impacting – potential cyclone

Shell will shut production at its Stones and Appomattox facilities in the Gulf of Mexico

precautionary measure in response to a tropical disturbance
has begun evacuating non-essential personnel from its assets in the Mars Corridor

The latest from the U.S. National Hurricane Center is that they expect the system located near the Gulf of Mexico has a 50% chance of becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours

EU News

European equities end mixed

European markets close with modest gains

Major European indices closed mostly higher to start the week, but the gains were modest. The gains and mostly indices come despite weaker S&P/Global PMI flash data.

A snapshot of the closing levels show:

German Dax, +0.58%
France’s CAC, +0.06%
UK FTSE 100, +0.36%
Spain’s Ibex, +0.38%
Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.24%

Eurozone September flash services PMI 50.5 vs 52.1 expected

Latest data released by HCOB – 23 September 2024

Prior 52.9
Manufacturing PMI 44.8 vs 45.6 expected
Prior 45.8
Composite PMI 48.9 vs 50.5 expected
Prior 51.0

HCOB notes that:

“The eurozone is heading towards stagnation. After the Olympic effect had temporarily boosted France, the eurozone heavyweight economy, the Composite PMI fell in September to the largest extent in 15 months. The index has now dipped below the expansionary threshold. Considering the rapid decline in new orders and the order backlog, it doesn’t take much imagination to foresee a further weakening of the economy.

“Manufacturing is getting messier by the month. The recession has now dragged on for 27 months and even worsened in September. Looking ahead, the sharp drop in new orders and companies’ increasingly bleak outlook for future output suggest that this dry spell is far from over.

“The manufacturing labour market is feeling the heat. Employers are cutting jobs at the fastest pace since August 2020. At the same time, employment growth in the services sector has slowed for the fourth consecutive month and is now nearly flat. We expect the official employment figures in the eurozone, which have remained stable so far, to worsen in the coming months, though demographic trends should provide more stability than in previous downturns.

“With the ECB closely watching the persistently high inflation in services, the news that both input and output price inflation has slowed down is certainly welcome. Add to that the deepening recession in manufacturing and the near-stagnation of the services sector, and the possibility of another rate cut in October could very well be on the table, even though this is not the expectation of the market yet.”

PMIs on the agenda in Europe to start the week

Markets calmer after having to digest the Fed decision in the week before

Germany September flash manufacturing PMI 40.3 vs 42.4 expected

Latest data released by HCOB – 23 September 2024

Manufacturing PMI 40.3 vs 42.4 expected and 42.4 prior.
Services PMI 50.6 vs 51.0 expected and 51.2 prior.
Composite PMI 47.2 vs 48.2 expected and 48.4 prior.

Key findings:

HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 47.2 (Aug: 48.4). 7-month low.
HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 50.6 (Aug: 51.2). 6-month low.
HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index(4) at 40.5 (Aug: 42.8). 12-month low.
HCOB Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 40.3 (Aug: 42.4). 12-month low

Comment:

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“The downturn in the manufacturing sector has deepened again, evaporating any hope for an early recovery. Output plunged at the fastest rate in a year, with new orders collapsing. In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions. These troubling figures are likely to intensify the ongoing debate in Germany about the risk of deindustrialization and what the government should do about it.”

“Optimism is something of the past. Manufacturers are downright depressed about their future activity, with expectations for the coming year plummeting. In a striking shift, moderate optimism in August has quickly turned into the steepest pessimism in a year by September. This rapid downturn in sentiment is most likely linked to the wave of negative headlines surrounding Volkswagen, which has cast a shadow over the broader industry.”

“The slump in manufacturing is beginning to spill over into Germany’s otherwise resilient services sector. Activity growth among service providers has slowed for four consecutive months, edging closer to stagnation. In response to the weakening demand, companies are continuing to reduce their workforce. The outlook for the services sector does not look pretty. Outstanding orders have contracted at their fastest pace in seven months, while new business has seen a clear decline.”

“A technical recession seems to be baked in. Our GDP nowcast for the current quarter, which considers the HCOB PMI among other indicators, now points to a 0.2% decrease compared to the quarter before. In the second quarter GDP already shrank at a rate of 0.1%. There is still some hope that the fourth quarter will be better as higher wages combined with lower inflation should boost not only real income but also consumption, supporting domestic demand.”

France September flash services PMI 48.3 vs 52.5 expected

Latest data released by HCOB – 23 September 2024

Prior 55.0
Manufacturing PMI 44.0 vs 44.3 expected
Prior 43.9
Composite PMI 47.4 vs 50.6 expected
Prior 53.1

HCOB notes that:

“It is a sad reality; the strong growth in the French economy seen in August evaporated by September. The Flash Composite HCOB PMI has dropped well below the critical 50 mark, now standing at 47.4. This confirms the suspicion that the service sector surge in August was an Olympics-related anomaly, which has now dissipated. The situation in manufacturing remains difficult, much like in the previous month. Our HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one. With this, France joins the group of Eurozone economies struggling with significant growth challenges.

“There is deep disappointment in the French services sector. The HCOB Flash PMI for services dropped by nearly 7 points in September to 48.3, following a month boosted by strong demand due to the Olympics in France. Particularly hard-hit in September were national and international new orders, as well as backlogs of work. A bright spot remains the stable employment levels and easing price pressures. Although input prices continued to rise, they did so at a slower pace than the previous month. Notably, despite the sector’s weakness, service providers remain cautiously optimistic about the future, although this optimism is significantly below the historical average.

“The year seems lost for French factories. The HCOB Flash PMI for manufacturing showed a slight improvement in September, rising to 44.0 points, but remains deep in recession territory. Output is shrinking at the fastest pace since the beginning of the year, and new orders continue to decline. As a result, employment shrank. The situation remains bleak, and industrial companies lack optimism. Orders from North America and key European markets like Germany are particularly affected. Politically, the situation remains unstable following the snap elections and the appointment of Michel Barnier as Prime Minister, with no clear parliamentary majority in place to push through the significant economic reforms that could revive the industry.”

UK September flash services PMI 52.8 vs 53.5 expected

Services PMI 52.8 vs 53.5 expected and 53.7 prior.
Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 52.5 expected and 52.5 prior.
Composite PMI 52.9 vs 53.5 expected and 53.8 prior.

Key Findings:

Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 52.9 (Aug: 53.8). 2-month low.
Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 52.8 (Aug: 53.7). 2-month low.
Flash UK Manufacturing Output Index(3) at 53.5 (Aug: 54.4). 3-month low.
Flash UK Manufacturing PMI(4) at 51.5 (Aug: 52.5). 3-month low.

Comment:

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The September PMI data bring encouraging news, with robust economic growth being accompanied by a cooling of inflationary pressures. The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy, whereby the fight against inflation is showing increasing signs of being won without higher interest rates having caused a downturn.”

“A slight cooling of output growth across manufacturing and services in September should not be seen as too concerning, as the survey data are still consistent with the economy growing at a rate approaching 0.3% in the third quarter, which is in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.”

“Business optimism has also risen, albeit with concerns about the impact of the Autumn Statement jangling nerves somewhat, notably in the manufacturing sector. Investment plans in particular are reported to have been put on ice pending clarity on the new government’s policies, especially towards taxation. Hiring likewise has been stifled by business uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook ahead of the ‘budget’.”

“In the meantime, services inflation, stubbornly elevated rates of which have been the bugbear of the Bank of England, cooled in September to the lowest since February 2021 to help bring the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target closer into view. The survey data therefore support the view that there is scope for interest rates to fall further in the closing months of 2024.”

UK September CBI trends total orders -35 vs -21 expected

Latest data released by CBI – 23 September 2024

Prior -22

UK factory order book balance fell to the lowest since November 2023 as export demand is also seen falling at the fastest pace since December 2020, according to CBI. The export order book balance plunged to a reading of -44, down from -22 in August, highlighting continued woes in the manufacturing sector.

SNB total sight deposits w.e. 20 September CHF 465.3 bn vs CHF 466.8 bn prior

Latest data released by the SNB – 23 September 2024

Domestic sight deposits CHF 457.2 bn vs CHF 458.2 bn prior

UK’s new Chancellor says won’t return to the austerity cuts of Conservative predecessors

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will speak on Monday.

will say “There will be no return to austerity. Conservative austerity was a destructive choice for our public services – and for investment and growth too”
Reeves says there will be “tough decisions. But we won’t let that dim our ambition for Britain.”
will also reiterate that Labour’s manifesto commitments not to raise income tax, National Insurance social security payments, value-added tax and corporation tax

Asia-Pacific-World News

People’s Bank of China rate cut 14 day reverse repo rate to 1.85% from 1.95%

PBOC interest rate cut

PBOC injected 74.5 bn yuan liquidity to banking system via 14-day reverse repo, with rate lowered to 1.85% from 1.95%.
also injects 160.1 bn yuan liquidity via 7-day reverse repo, with rate unchanged at 1.7%.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0531 (vs. estimate at 7.0518)

PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

In open market operations (OMOs):

PBOC injects 160bn via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.7%
injects 74bn yuan in 14 days RRs, cuts rate from 1.95% to 1.85%

139 bn yuan reverse repo expire today
net 96bn liquidity injected into the market

TSMC and Samsung considering $100bn UAE investment – chip-building plants

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

The Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report on chip-makers TSMC and Samsung mulling building factory complexes in the UAE:

on par with some of the company’s largest and most advanced facilities in Taiwan, according to people familiar with the interactions
discussions are still in the early phases
could be a cornerstone for artificial-intelligence investments in the Middle East

Link here (gated).

Australia preliminary Sept PMI: Manufacturing 46.7 (prior 48.5) Services 50.6 (prior 52.5)

Australian Flash PMI from Judo Bank / S&P Global for September 2024

Preliminary Judo Bank S&P Australian Manufacturing PMI slips deeper into contraction at 46.7

prior 48.5

Services slips lower but remains in expansion at 50.6

prior 52.5

Composite dragged into contraction by the sliding manufacturing PMI, composite comes in at 49.8

prior 51.7

In summary from the report commentary:

manufacturing sector contracted, posting its lowest index reading outside of the pandemic
The weakness in PMI activity indicators over the past three months suggests that households are saving more of the government stimulus than initially expected
results over the past quarter indicate that the Australian economy is gradually bringing supply and demand back into balance at the current cash rate
PMIs also reinforce the narrative of slowing job growth in the market sector, with employment barely staying in growth territory in September, at 50.8. This contrasts with official employment data, which has consistently shown monthly job growth nearly three times the pre-pandemic average, primarily driven by significant hiring in the care and education sectors
price pressures eased in September, margin pressures across the economy remain
output price index, which tracks the share of businesses raising consumer prices, fell to its lowest point since January 2021, now close to its pre-pandemic average
despite a sharp decline in the input price index, it remains only slightly below its FY24 average and significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 56.8. Whether this input price pressure translates into higher consumer inflation depends on a potential rebound in household spending in FY25. However, with early indicators showing subdued demand, margin pressures are likely to persist through FY25

Australian politicians are now actively moving to remove RBA independence

A minor political party in Australia are “consciously and deliberately” injecting politics into the Reserve Bank of Australia

The Australia ‘Greens’ party want RBA independence ended. The Greens said they’ll support changes at the RBA only if interest rates are cut. Australian Treasurer Chalmers is trying to create a new monetary policy board at the RBA, but do so he needs support of the Greens Party. Some points:

“The Reserve Bank board are not infallible high-priests of the economy who are above criticism”
“That is why, by making lower interest rates a condition of our support, the Greens are consciously and deliberately putting the RBA into the centre of political debate, where they belong.
“Both yourself and the Reserve Bank governor have said you want this legislation passed. Now you both know what has to be done to secure these changes.”

Australian authorities legal action on pricing strategies that drove up consumer prices

Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) action against Australia’s supermarket duopoly

Australia’s consumer watchdog, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), has accused Australia’s two largest (by far) supermarket chains of misleading Australians on pricing of many products:

“in the case of these products, we allege the new ‘Prices Dropped’ and ‘Down Down’ promotional prices were actually higher than, or the same as, the previous regular price. “We allege that each of Woolworths and Coles breached the Australian Consumer Law by making misleading claims about discounts, when the discounts were, in fact, illusory. “We also allege that in many cases both Woolworths and Coles had already planned to later place the products on a ‘Prices Dropped’ or ‘Down Down’ promotion before the price spike, and implemented the temporary price spike for the purpose of establishing a higher ‘was’ price.”

New Zealand data, August trade balance -2200m (prior -963m)

New Zealand export and import data for August 2024

Japan’s new ‘top currency diplomat’ Atsushi Mimura said “always watching” yen carry trade

Mimura spoke with NHK (Japan’s massive public broadcaster):

authorities are “always watching markets”
yen carry trades built up in the past are likely to have been mostly unwound … “But if such moves increase again, that could heighten market volatility. We are always watching markets to ensure that does not happen”
authorities stand ready to act if currency moves become extremely volatile and deviate from fundamentals in a way that cause problems to firms and households

Cryptocurrency News

Bitcoin Steadies Above $62,000 as Post-Fed Enthusiasm Wanes

Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized above the crucial psychological level of $62,000, following a robust nearly 7.5% increase last week. However, recent momentum appears to be losing steam as on-chain data indicates a neutral sentiment among traders.

Market Overview

Current Price: $62,300
Recent Movement: Halted positive trend after last week’s rally.

ETF Inflows Decline

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a minor dip in inflows, with total investments decreasing from $403.90 million to $397.20 million week-on-week. This 1.66% decline comes amidst a total of $50.68 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM) across 11 ETFs, suggesting that while inflows have slowed, the overall market remains significant.

Trader Sentiment

The Bitcoin long-to-short ratio currently sits at 1.0, indicating a balanced outlook among investors. A ratio above 1 typically reflects bullish sentiment, while below 1 suggests a more bearish perspective.

Hashrate Shift

Notably, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, highlighted a shift in Bitcoin hashrate dominance towards US mining companies. Currently, 55% of the network is managed by Chinese mining pools, while US pools account for 40%. This transition could bode well for Bitcoin’s future, as US pools primarily serve institutional miners, contrasting with the smaller operations supported by Chinese pools.

Overall, while Bitcoin holds steady, the mixed signals in sentiment and ETF inflows indicate that traders are exercising caution as they navigate the current market landscape.

Vice President Harris pumping crypto – says will encourage digital assets

Trump has been a favourite of the crypto crowd, Harris making a pitch now also

Vice President Kamala Harris spoke in New York City on Sunday, raising funds.

“We will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets, while protecting our consumers and investors.”

Bloomberg (gated) carried the report, noting that Harris’ comments mark the first time she has commented on cryptocurrencies as the Democratic presidential nominee.

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Round up of today’s market news

ByBilals Tech