Round up of today’s market news

North American News

Mega Cap Gains Propel S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Despite Broad Market Weakness

The S&P 500 (+0.4%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%) closed near their daily highs, driven by strong performances in mega cap and semiconductor stocks. However, the broader market sentiment was negative, with declining issues outpacing advancing ones by approximately 3-to-2 at both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

• Mixed Performance Across Indices:
  • The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.7%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.8%.
  • The Russell 2000 slipped 0.4%.

These declines were tempered by a rebound in NVIDIA (NVDA 126.09, +7.98, +6.8%) and other mega cap stocks after recent losses.

• Top Performers and Decliners:
  • Carnival Corporation (CCL 17.82, +1.43, +8.7%) led the S&P 500 after posting better-than-expected earnings and revenue, coupled with strong guidance. This buoyed other cruise lines, including Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 18.29, +0.89, +5.1%) and Royal Caribbean (RCL 160.73, +6.21, +4.0%).
  • Pool Corporation (POOL 310.74, -27.17, -8.0%) saw the largest decline among S&P 500 stocks following a downward revision of its FY24 guidance.
• Sector Performance:
  • Eight of the S&P 500 sectors declined, with notable gains in the information technology (+1.8%) and communication services (+1.9%) sectors, buoyed by mega cap strength.
• Economic Indicators:
  • The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for June dipped to 100.4 from 101.3 in May, reflecting weaker expectations for future income.
  • Treasury yields were largely stable, with the 2-year note yield unchanged at 4.73% and the 10-year note yield down one basis point to 4.24%. The Treasury market absorbed a $69 billion 2-year note sale, which saw strong demand.

Overall, while mega caps and semiconductor stocks provided upward momentum for the major indices, the broader market experienced a pullback amid mixed economic signals and sector-specific performances.

FedEx Shares Soar on 2025 Guidance: Lower Capex and Enhanced Cost Efficiency Propel Growth

• The company highlights $2.2 billion in cost savings

FedEx shares rose 8.7% in after-market trading, nearing April highs, following its latest earnings report. Key highlights include:

• 2025 Capex: Forecasted at $5.2 billion, below the $5.5 billion consensus and significantly down from $6.2 billion last year.
• Revenue Growth: Projected to grow in the low-to-mid single digits year over year for 2025.
• Cost Savings: Anticipates $2.2 billion in savings for the current fiscal year.

These strategic moves to cut capital expenditures and enhance cost efficiency are fueling investor confidence and driving up the stock price.

US sells 2-year Treasury notes at 4.706% vs 4.706% WI

• Results of the $69 billion sale
• Prior was 4.917%

Richmond Fed June manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected

• June manufacturing and services data from the Richmond Fed

• Manufacturing index -10 vs. 2 expected and 0 prior.
• Services index -11 vs. 3 prior.
• Manufacturing shipments index -9 vs. 13 prior.

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.The composite manufacturing index decreased from 0 in May to −10 in June. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell notably from 13 to −9, new orders decreased from −6 to −17, and employment rose from −6 to −2.

Firms grew notably less optimistic about local business conditions, as the index fell from 3 to −15. The index for future local business conditions, however, increased from 6 in May to 10 in June. The future indexes for shipments and new orders remained solidly in positive territory, suggesting that firms continued to expect improvements in these areas over the next six months.

Although the vendor lead time index increased, on balance, firms continued to report declining backlogs and vendor lead times in June, as those indexes both remained negative.

The average growth rate of prices paid and prices received increased in June. Firms expected price growth to moderate slightly over the next 12 months.

US June consumer confidence 100.4 vs 100.0 expected

• US June 2024 consumer confidence from The Conference Board

• Prior was 102.0 (revised to 101.3)
• Expectations 73.0 vs 74.9 prior
• Present situation 141.5 vs 140.8 prior
• 14.1% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14.3%.
• 12 month inflation expectations 5.3% vs 5.4% prior

“Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if material weaknesses in the labor market appear, Confidence could weaken as the year progresses,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

Dallas Fed service sector revenue +1.9 vs +6.7 prior

• Low tier data from the Dallas Fed

• Prior was -12.1
• Employment +1.8 vs +3.9 prior
• Overall outlook -4.1 vs -12.1 prior
• Company outlook -1.3 vs -5.7 prior
• Input prices +20.7 vs +24.7 prior
• Selling prices +3.8 vs +3.9 prior

Comments in the report:

Merchant wholesalers, durable goods

• The oil and gas markets are slowing slightly. This could be just a slowdown during the final time of the election, but that cannot be determined at this time. Federal Reserve monetary policy actions have also slowed many of the mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas markets.Many of the major companies in the Permian Basin are involved, directly or indirectly, in mergers and acquisitions affected by the Securities and Exchange Commission’s regulations.

Support activities for transportation

• We are seeing a seasonal uptick in market activity and rates. This is good, since our industry lost a measure of seasonality since the pandemic. It indicates a movement back toward normal for our market. However, there is still too much capacity in the market.

Warehousing and storage

• We have seen a pickup in business, particularly on the export side, over the past six weeks that has pointed to a recovery over the first four months of the year, when there seemed to be some uncertainty in the air.

Publishing industries (except internet)

• There is an increase in interest for advanced tech software and related platforms for education and general task automation with better quality and productivity than humans can provide.

Credit intermediation and related activities

• The economic environment is maintaining a sluggish pace, and part of the challenges for retail and consumer markets relate to high interest rates and inflation. Rural markets seem to be affected the most as evident from a slowdown in home and land sales. The sales-tax receipts have gradually declined monthly and are below the previous year-to-date amount.

Real estate

• People are adjusting to new economic realities. Few are expecting salary increases and are instead making lifestyle adjustments to deal with higher living costs.Reality is also setting in for the apartment owners we serve. They understand rents aren’t going up and interest rates aren’t coming down. As rate caps expire and loans mature, lenders are having to adapt as well. Ultimately, a lot of private equity (much in the form of individual retirement savings put into syndications) is getting wiped out.
• We need a rate cut before we will see any revenue improvement from home sales.
• Lower interest rates in the second half of the year should improve capital market conditions in commercial real estate, both for equity and debt.

Rental and leasing services

• Please note that our business is highly seasonal since we provide HVAC rental equipment. Overall, our business is going great.
• After five months, we are down 5 percent compared with 2023. We are a company that has grown over 20 percent per year for the last three years, and we take this as evidence that the overall economy has slowed down this year. As a result, we have implemented a freeze on hiring and expenses.

Professional, scientific and technical services

• It feels like things might be bottoming out as demand has improved slightly.
• We are unwilling to commit additional growth capital expenditures until after the election, when the regulatory outlook should be clearer.
• We’re seeing pricing pressure from our competitors. It looks like they are getting slower and starting to lower their prices. We will eventually feel this pressure also, but not yet. Our biggest concern is the uncertainty from the election. Our third and fourth quarters might get slow if the election gets too bad. Our clients will start to put projects on hold.
• General business activity has slowed over the past couple of months. Although our real estate orders have increased slightly over the past couple of months, these deals are becoming more difficult to close due to the complexity and the lending environment. Hopefully the next round of numbers will start showing how slow the economy really is.
• This is a period of apparent stability covered with a veil of high uncertainty.
• The Federal Reserve’s recent announcement of no rate cuts in the near future is concerning regarding the immediate and lag effect it could have on the local economy. We have received direct feedback from many of our clients in various industries, and they are increasingly concerned. They are freezing hires and spending, with many reducing spending.The primary reason is the economic stagnation locally and nationally affecting their businesses.
• While we are obtaining a small amount of work for June, longer term it is not clear how much future work this will evolve to.
• After a yearlong search, we finally found a highly qualified consultant to fill our open search. We are still in growth mode and in need of a part-time administrative position; however, we wanted to be sure the revenue would be there. Our pipeline has certainly gotten deeper and wider, but some of that work won’t come to fruition until 2025.
• With the higher cost of goods and economic uncertainty, we are seeing clients lower their monthly retainers and new business opportunities have slowed significantly.

Administrative and support services

• High interest rates are still the major issue.
• As elections draw near, the political environment worsens, creating more uncertainty in our business.
• We remain uncertain about the last two quarters of 2024. Although hiring is picking up slightly, clients still take longer to make decisions than in the past, and it remains difficult to find qualified candidates. We’re seeing an increase in hiring for skill sets we have not seen in several months, including human resources and marketing roles. Accounting, finance and sales roles continue to be in demand, but other roles are now appearing, which is positive.
• The corporate aviation sector has slowed down this month, which is consistent with our normal cycle. Requests for quotes in the commercial aviation sector have decreased for the third month in a row. Requests for quotes in the industrial machine shop have stayed low for the past four months.

Educational services

• Outlook and uncertainty levels have changed since last month due to election uncertainty, a change in institutional leadership and fluctuations in high school enrollment levels and business in- and outmigration in Texas.

Ambulatory health care services

• Wage and supply costs continue to rise with no improvement of insurance reimbursement or ability to raise self-pay pricing.There has been a shift in the labor market, and we believe it has shifted toward a buyer’s or employer’s market, with more qualified candidates available to work and requesting more reasonable wages.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Accommodation

• In general, our summer is beginning soft, with no signs this will change in the next two months.
• The storms in Houston played a large part in the increase in revenue. We were sold out multiple days and had an increase in occupancy.

Food services and drinking places

• We feel inflation and fear of more inflation plus the rise in cost of living are holding consumers back. Hopefully we will adapt to the new realities soon.
• June and July are awful months. Our clients are on vacation, no one is in the office and there’s less dining out.
• We have seen some pushback on menu prices; however, customer counts continue to increase slightly.

Merchant wholesalers, durable goods

• Customers are concerned about the election, so they are holding off on large purchases.

Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods

• Fuel prices seem to have stabilized, which helps us stabilize pricing (no change to fuel surcharges). However, oil prices increased over the last 30 days, and fuel surcharges are typically adjusted as a 30-day historical average. If oil stays high, we expect fuel surcharges to increase in July.

Motor vehicle and parts dealers

• Inventories continue to swell, and interest rates remain high. Our grosses are off, and margins continue to decline. Profits are down 20 percent from the prior year.
• We continue to be surprised at how vehicle sales volume continues to be strong in spite of interest rates.
• Affordability has become an ever-increasing problem for new car dealers. The price increases of new cars combined withhigher interest rates have put new cars out of reach for more and morepeople.
• The economy is slowing. The consumer is more cautious and more reluctant to purchase at higher prices and payments.

Electronics and appliance stores

• The lack of building activity is shutting down the appliance industry.

Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers

• Poor national leadership and lack of confidence have eroded the business environment.

Nonstore retailers

• Our outlook depends heavily on the presidential election.

US May national activity index +0.18 vs. -0.23 prior

• The latest data from the Chicago Fed
• National Activity Index 0.18 vs. -0.23 prior (revised to -0.26).

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.18 inMay from –0.26 in April. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from April, and two categories made positive contributions in May. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.09 in May from –0.05 in April.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average,decreased to –0.16 in May from –0.13 in April. Forty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in May, while 37 made negative contributions. Fifty-four indicators improved from April to May, while 29 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 14 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed +0.23 to the CFNAI in May, up from –0.15 in April.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category’s contribution to the CFNAI was –0.02 in May, down from –0.01 in April.
• Employment-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in May, up from –0.05 in April.
• The personal consumption and housing category’s contribution to the CFNAI was –0.03 in May, up from –0.06 in April.

Fed’s Cook: Current policy is well positioned, attentive to inflation expectations

• Comments from Cook

• At some point it will be appropriate to cut
• Timing of policy adjustments wil ldepend on data and outlook
• Rise in inflation expectations would imply keeping policy restrictive for longer
• Inflation has slowed, labor market tightness has eased
• Expect disinflation trend to continue
• Expect 12 month inflation moving sideways for the rest of the year, slowing more sharply next year
• Expect 3 and 6-month inflation rates to move lower on a bumpy path

Fed’s Bowman: I’m still open to raising rates if inflation doesn’t improve

• Comments from the Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman

• Not yet at the point where it is appropriate to cut rates.
• Should data show inflation moving sustainably to 2%, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower policy rate.
• Baseline outlook continues to be inflation will return to 2% with policy rate held steady for some time.
• Willing to raise the target rate at a future meeting if inflation progress stalls or reverses.
• Will remain cautious in approach to future changes in policy stance.
• Other central banks may ease monetary policy sooner or more quickly that the Fed.
• Only modest further progress on US inflation seen this year.
• Expect US inflation to remain elevated for some time.
• Still see a number of upside inflation risks.
• US labour market remains tight despite some further rebalancing.

BofA expects a Dec rate cut from Fed

• Higher for longer

BofA expects the Fed to start cutting in December:

• Persistent Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed’s 2% target until 2026 due to strong labor demand and increased consumer spending.
• Gradual Rate Cuts: The Fed is expected to start easing rates in December 2024, with cuts continuing quarterly to a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75% by 2026.
• Risk of Sticky Inflation: A key risk identified is that inflation might remain sticky, necessitating the Fed to keep rates higher for longer than anticipate

Possible Implications:

• Fixed income: The higher-for-longer interest rate environment implies a challenging period for bond prices, which typically inversely correlate with interest rates.
• US Dollar: Higher rates in the US compared to other economies will likely keep the dollar strong.Geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties in other regions (e.g., Europe and China) contribute to the dollar’s strength as a safe-haven currency​.

Goldman expects USD upside under a Republican victory

• Regardless of a sweep or a divided government

Heading into the Trump/Biden debate this week, Goldman was out with a useful note on their expectations for a Republican victory.

USD: Upside bias under a Republican victory

• Tariff Policies: Trump has proposed several potential tariff policies, including a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China. These tariffs are expected to strengthen the USD due to reduced import volumes and increased demand for domestic goods.
• Market Expectations: Prediction markets suggest a higher probability of a Republican sweep, which typically aligns with stronger fiscal conservatism and policies that favor a stronger dollar​

US Stocks with high International revenue or supply exposure: Expect pressure for these types of stocks

• Retaliatory Tariffs: The risk of retaliatory tariffs from other countries in response to US tariffs could negatively impact companies with significant international sales.
• Supply Chain Disruptions: Tariffs on imports from China could disrupt supply chains and increase costs for companies reliant on Chinese suppliers.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Heightened geopolitical tensions could further strain international operations and revenues for these firms. Technology and cyclicals are highlighted as sectors with the highest international sales exposures​

Canada May CPI 2.9% versus 2.6% expected

• Canada May 2024 inflation data

• Prior month 2.7%
• CPI m/m +0.6% vs +0.3% estimate

Core measures

• CPI Bank of Canada core y/y 1.8% vs 1.6% prior
• CPI Bank of Canada core m/m 0.6% versus 0.2% prior
• Core CPI m/m SA +0.3% vs 0.0% prior
• Trim 2.9% versus 2.8% prior
• Median 2.8% versus 2.6% prior
• Common 2.4% versus 2.6% prior

Bank of Canada July implied rate cut odds immediately fell to 52% from 71% on the CPI data. Acceleration in the headline CPI was largely due to higher prices for services, which rose 4.6% in May following a 4.2% increase in April. That tends to be stickier inflation and will certainly worry the BOC, though just yesterday Macklem was downplaying wage increases.

Within services, cell phone service, travel tours (+10.4% m/m), rent (+8.9% y/y) and air transport (+2.3%) were drivers. Cell phone plans have been dropping but a -7.8% m/m comp from May 2023 fell out of the index and that bumped up the y/y reading to -19.4% from -26.6%.

Prices for goods were up 1.0% y/y, the same as in April but grocery prices rose on a y/y basis for the first time since June 2023.

Commodities

Gold dips as US Dollar rallies on Fed’s hawkish stance

• Gold falls 0.59%, pressured by a recovering US Dollar.
• Golden metal was pressured by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s hawkish remarks.
• Fed’s Lisa Cook is neutral, forecasting a sharp inflation decline next year.
• US Conference Board indicates declining consumer optimism, with diminished expectations for future income and business conditions.

Gold price tumbled after reaching a weekly high of $2,334 and fell as the Greenback staged a recovery underpinned by a minimal rise in US Treasury bond yields, spurred by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s hawkish comments.The yellow metal trades at $2,319, down 0.59%.

Bowman emphasized that monetary policy should remain steady for “some time” and would probably be enough to bring inflation down. She disregarded rate cuts this year and stated she’s willing to raise rates “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”

Silver declines below $29.40 as US Dollar rebounds

• Silver price slides below $29.40 as the US Dollar bounces back.
• Fed Bowman sees interest rates remaining at their current levels this year.
• Investors await the US core PCE inflation for fresh guidance.

Silver slumps below lower end of Monday’s trading range near $29.40 in Tuesday’s New York session. The white metal faces selling pressure as the US Dollar has bounced back strongly after correcting on Monday.

Demand for industrial metals weakens – TDS

Downside momentum has proven resilient in industrial metals, despite lingering hopes of new Chinese stimulus as our gauge of commodity demand continues to weaken amid a precarious global macro landscape, TDS commodity strategists note.

Copper is flat, other metals to slide lower

“Top Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) traders have liquidated their Copper length and are now holding a fairly flat position, highlighting those on the ground in the Middle Kingdom may not be buying into the stimulus talk just yet.”

“Elsewhere, AUM for base metal specific ETFs have also notably declined, while money manager positioning is also coming off the euphoric highs for the red metal, and there could still be additional downside in the near-term as bloated positions continue to unwind.”

“For now, CTA positions remain safe with a large margin of safety before the next selling trigger at $9,104/t. Elsewhere, Aluminum prices are in the crosshairs with CTA selling triggers sitting at the $2,400/t level, while Zinc and Lead could also be at risk of selling.”

EU News

European equity close: Stocks stumble

• Closing changes for the main European bourses

There is some back-and-fill ongoing as the market in Europe waits for what is coming next.

Closing changes:

• Stoxx 600 -0.3%
• German DAX -0.9%
• UK FTSE 100 -0.4%
• French CAC -0.7%
• Italy MIB -0.4%
• Spain IBEX -0.65%

Spain Q1 final GDP +0.8% vs +0.7% q/q prelim

• Latest data released by INE – 25 June 2024
• Prior +0.6%

On an annual basis, Spain’s economic output expanded by 2.5%. The figures just reinforce the stronger performance by the periphery nations especially in Q1.

Asia-Pacific-World News

China Premier Li says confident and capable to achieve growth target of around 5%

• Decoupling and protectionism will only raise economic operation costs for the world

• We are confident and capable to achieve the full year growth target of around 5%.
• Electric vehicles, lithium batteries produced by Chinese companies have not only met domestic demand but enriched global supply.
• We should build a more fair non-discriminatory business environment for tech innovation.
• We should face up to the difficulty of global economic growth.
• Weak global economic growth momentum hit by COVID, high inflation, increasing debt.
• Decoupling and protectionism will only raise economic operation costs for the world.
• We should seize the new opportunities of the tech revolution and industrial transformation.
• Shaking off the difficulty of growth needs new sources of growth drivers.
• The fast rise of emerging industries in China follows the trend of global tech revolution, green development.
•  Chinese products first satisfy domestic demand, ease global inflation pressure, and help deal with global climate change.

Biden admin to investigate China Telecom, China Mobile and Chin Unicom

• Probe focused on potential US national security risks

• Biden administration investigating China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom
• The probe is focused on potential US national security risks from their US cloud business and internet infrastructure

PBoC injects 300 billion yuan via 7-day reverse repose

• Sets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior

• PBoC injects 300 billion Yuan via 7-day reverse repos
• Sets 7-day reverse repo rate at 1.8% vs 1.8% prior

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1225 (vs. estimate at 7.2587)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead

Australia consumer sentiment 1.7 vs -0.3 prior

• Sentiment data for June 2024

Australia consumer sentiment 1.7 vs -0.3 prior

Japan April revised leading indicator index 110.9 vs 111.7 prior

• Latest data released by the Japan Cabinet Office – 25 June 2024
• Coincident index 115.2 vs 114.2 prior

Japan finance minister says will closely monitor currency movements

• Remarks by Japan finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, amid a meeting with the South Korean finance minister, Choi Sang-mok

The two sides are putting out a joint statement, remarking that:

• Japan, South Korea share serious concerns on respective currency depreciation
• Will continue to take appropriate steps to respond to declining value of currency

Japan to revise GDP (Jan-Mar) due to corrected construction orders data

• Cabinet Office

• Japan to revise Jan-Mar GDP to reflect corrected data on construction orders from Land Ministry
• Japan revised Jan-Mar GDP to be released at 2350 GMT on June 30, 8:50 a.m. Japan time on July 1

Japan Services PPI 2.5 vs 2.8 prior

• PPI for May 2024

Japan Services PPI 2.5 vs 2.8 prior

Japan chief cabinet sec doesn’t comment on FX levels

• No surprises here

• Won’t comment on forex levels.
• Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.
• Excessive FX volatility undesirable.
• Closely watching FX moves, will respond appropriately to excessive volatility.

Cryptocurrency News

Ethereum ETFs could be on course to see $15 billion net flows when they launch

• Ethereum ETFs could attract up to $15 billion in net flows by 2025, says Bitwise CIO.
• Low outflows in Ethereum Foundation wallets suggest bull cycle is yet to reach its peak.
• Ethereum traders are gradually turning bullish again following slight increase in ETH Taker Buyer Ratio.

Ethereum (ETH) is up more than 3% on Tuesday following predictions of ETH ETF inflows from Bitwise and VanEck filing a draft that allows its ETF to begin trading immediately if the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) approves it.

15 billion net flows, Form 8-A, Ethereum Foundation

In a recent analysis, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted that spot Ethereum ETFs could attract a net flow of $15 billion in their first 18 months.

Hougan arrived at the $15 billion figure by comparing Ethereum’s market cap to Bitcoin, Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust conversion, the international crypto ETP market, and Bitcoin’s “carry trade.”

The Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlighted issuers’ 19b-4 filings on May 23, but the agency must approve their S-1 registration statements before the ETFs can begin trading.

According to Hougan, investors may allocate capital to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in proportion to their combined market capitalization — 74% and 26%, respectively.

While Bitcoin ETFs currently have about $56 billion in assets under management (AUM), he expects this figure to reach $100 billion by the end of 2025 when platforms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch potentially approve them.Using $100 billion as a reference and subtracting Grayscale’s $10 billion Ethereum Trust conversion to an ETF, ETH ETFs could see a net flow of $25 billion.However, international Ethereum ETFs only gather around 22% of the combined market share compared to Bitcoin. This reduces the estimate from $25 billion to $18 billion.

Furthermore, Hougan expressed that institutions won’t participate in an Ethereum “carry trade” as they do with Bitcoin ETFs due to the absence of staking in US spot ETH ETFs.A carry trade involves buying an asset in the spot market and shorting its equivalent in the futures market.The aim is to profit from the price difference when the futures contract of the asset trades at a premium to its spot price. Considering that $10 billion of Bitcoin ETFs AUM is “linked” to the carry trade, removing that from the Bitcoin ETFs will see their estimated AUM fall to $90 billion.In comparison, Ethereum ETFs will see their estimated netflows drop to $15 billion by the end of 2025.

“My gut tells me we’ll do better than that (…) but even $15 billion in net new demand will have a dramatic impact on the Ethereum market,” said Hougan.

Ripple holders realized over $30 million in losses in the past ten days, XRP sustains above $0.47

• Ripple holders have shed their XRP holdings and realized over $30 million in losses since June 15. 
• XRP token supply on exchanges is down to 2.84 million in the same timeframe. 
• XRP struggles to surge past $0.48 on Tuesday. 

Ripple’s price (XRP) struggles to hold above $0.48 on Tuesday and seems ready to extend its recent decline.According to Santiment data, investors have realized losses on their token holdings in the past ten days. This is typical of market capitulation, with traders likely distributing their tokens at a loss and expecting a decline in the asset’s price. 

XRP has steadily declined since the June 17 high of $0.5213, down to $0.47 on Tuesday. 

Ripple holders take losses in recent XRP price dip

• Ripple traders distributed their XRP holdings at a loss between June 15 and June 25, data shows. 
• The Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric shows negative spikes in the timeframe, losses exceed $30 million in the ten-day period. 
• Distribution of token holdings at a loss is typically a sign of market capitulation. 
• However, in the case of XRP, the supply on exchanges has declined in the past ten days. 
• 2.84 million XRP tokens are held on exchanges, down nearly 1% in the same period, signaling a reduction in selling pressure on the altcoin. 

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