Round up of today’s market news

North American News

Dow Sets the Pace, Modest Gains for the Day

• Green across the screen for the major indices

The major indices notched their third straight up day.The NASDAQ, Dow and S&P all closed at new 2023 highs.

• The Dow is closing at its highest level since January 2022.
• The S&P is closing at its highest levels since March 2022.
• The NASDAQ is closing at its highest level since April 2022

A snapshot of the final numbers are showing:

• Dow Industrial Average up 157.06 points or 0.43% at 36404.92
• S&P index up 18.07 points or 0.39% at 4622.43
• Nasdaq index up 28.52 points or 0.20% at 14432.50

The small-cap Russell 2000 is closing up 2.86 points or 0.15% at 1883.68.It still lags the other major indices. The high price for the Russell 2000 in 2023 was up at 2007.305.

In an unusual dynamic for 2023, the major indices were higher but the magnificent 7 all fell.

• Microsoft (MSFT)
  • Closing Price: $371.33
  • Change: -$2.90
  • Percentage Change: -0.77%
• Amazon (AMZN)
  • Closing Price: $145.83
  • Change: -$1.52
  • Percentage Change: -1.03%
• Apple (AAPL)
  • Closing Price: $193.15
  • Change: -$2.49
  • Percentage Change: -1.27%
• Google (GOOGL)
  • Closing Price: $133.24
  • Change: -$1.75
  • Percentage Change: -1.30%
• Tesla (TSLA)
  • Closing Price: $239.61
  • Change: -$4.23
  • Percentage Change: -1.73%
• Nvidia (NVDA)
  • Closing Price: $466.39
  • Change: -$8.67
  • Percentage Change: -1.83%
• Meta Platforms (META)
  • Closing Price: $325.32
  • Change: -$7.43
  • Percentage Change: -2.23%

US CPI Preview: Forecasts from major banks, inflation calms down, another signal of progress

Headline CPI is expected to fall a tick to 3.1% year-on-year while Core is expected to remain steady at 4.0% YoY.On a monthly basis, headline inflation is seen accelerating by 0.1% vs. the prior release of 0% while Core CPI is also expected to rise a tick to 0.3%.

ANZ

We expect Core CPI inflation to rise by 0.2% MoM in November. Headline CPI is likely to fall 0.1% amid lower energy prices. We think the Fed’s current restrictive monetary settings should crimp demand and ensure the recent moderation in inflation continues.As such we think the Fed is done raising rates.Any possible rate cut remains a way off as Fed officials will want to see much more evidence that inflation is indeed returning to 2% sustainably.

Commerzbank

Seasonally adjusted consumer prices in the US are expected to have risen by only 0.1% in November.The YoY rate would then fall from 3.2% to 3.1%. However, the small MoM increase is mainly due to lower energy prices, which is unlikely to be a lasting factor. In particular, gasoline prices, which are very volatile from month to month, fell by 6% on the month. On the other hand, we expect the Core CPI, i.e. excluding energy and food, to be much stronger at 0.3% MoM and unchanged at 4.0% YoY. Overall, the consumer price report is unlikely to change the picture of declining inflation.However, the persistence of core inflation would remind us once again that this decline is only gradual.

Deutsche Bank

We see the headline number at +0.1% (unchanged in October) and Core CPI accelerating to +0.3% (+0.2%). 

NBF

The energy component is likely to have had a negative impact on the headline index given the decline in gasoline prices during the month. This should help keep headline prices unchanged on a monthly basis. right, the YoY rate could fall from 3.2% to a 5-month low of 3.0%. Core prices, for their part, could show a 0.3% monthly progression, led by another increase in the shelter component. On a 12-month basis, core inflation should remain unchanged at a 2-year low of 4.0%.

TDS 

We look for Core CPI inflation to rebound to 0.3% MoM from 0.2% in Oct, with the headline also strengthening to 0.1%. The report is likely to show that the core goods segment added to inflation, while the shelter components (OER/rents) are expected to remain mixed. Note that our unrounded Core CPI inflation forecast at 0.29% MoM suggests largely balanced risks for Nov.

SocGen

We calculate that gasoline prices fell by slightly more than 6% in November from October. This should maintain a flat headline. We project Core CPI of 0.2%, with shelter costs expected to rise by 0.4% MoM, which would be further moderation in that category. Auto prices are expected to be down slightly again in November, falling by 0.3%. An ongoing drop in used vehicle prices is contributing to the low. 

Wells Fargo

We expect lower gasoline prices to hold the headline rate of inflation flat in November and forecast the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, to rise 0.3%, signaling slower progress on underlying inflation. A miss to the upside may drive a market reaction spurring higher yields, but we ultimately doubt the CPI data will materially change the outcome of the Fed meeting, where it’s essentially universally expected the FOMC will elect to keep rates on hold.If our CPI forecast is realized, the annual rate of headline inflation would slip to its lowest level rate since March 2021, while the core rate would remain unchanged from a month earlier at 4.0%.Some payback after volatile travel-related declines in October will be responsible for some of the rise in Core CPI. But other areas should decelerate further, including primary shelter and goods prices, which look set to decline for the sixth straight month. While inflation pressure continues to subside, there is still ground to cover before declaring victory.

Citi

We expect a 0.30% MoM increase in US Core CPI in November, stronger than the 0.23% increase in October and with risks tilted slightly to the upside for an even stronger print.Services prices should generally be stronger in November across both shelter and non-shelter components. Goods prices however should decline slightly in November.

CIBC

Headline inflation is expected to be 0.1% MoM given weak energy prices and an expected core inflation reading of 0.2% MoM.The moderation of Core CPI largely reflects the gradual softening of shelter inflation and core goods deflation.Together, these components represent about 70% of core inflation and will more than compensate for the Fed’s so-called ‘supercore’ – services excluding shelter – where price pressure may remain firm.Our views on Core inflation are slightly below consensus but after six months of encouraging progress on inflation, one very cool or very hot reading will not mean much for the Fed. We might be back to the good old days when a single CPI release does not move the needle anymore. Markets mostly understand this and will wait for signals from the FOMC meeting and the latest projection later in the week. 

Westpac

With the labour market softening, confidence very weak and further declines in the price of oil, a matching outcome is likely in November – a 0.0% for headline and 0.2% for Core prices.If achieved, annual headline inflation is likely to hold around 3% and core 4%.Into 2024, core inflation is expected to remain soft albeit principally because shelter inflation will abate while other components experience modest growth.If the oil price holds around current levels in early-2024, annual headline inflation will quickly decelerate towards 2% and core inflation follow into mid-year. 

Fed Preview: Forecasts from major banks, crushing rate cut prospects

ANZ

Inflation has performed better than the FOMC forecast in September, which is likely to result in lower projections for inflation and the FFR. The dot plot could be at least 50 bps lower over the next year relative to the September projection. Powell will need to maintain hawkish guidance as the job of combatting higher inflation is far from done and the FOMC doesn’t want to run the risk that financial conditions ease too much as that could undermine its objective of getting inflation sustainably back to 2%. 

Deutsche Bank

We expect the central bank to hold rates steady and signal a soft tightening bias. Further out, they see a mild recession starting in Q1 2024 and a first rate cut in June.

Rabobank

We expect the FOMC to remain on hold, stress its data dependence and intention to proceed carefully.During the press conference, we expect Powell to repeat that it would be premature to conclude with confidence that monetary policy has achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance or to speculate on when policy might ease.However, we expect the FOMC to remain on hold in the coming months because they think a soft landing is in sight and they are not likely to risk it by hiking further. Nevertheless, we think that unemployment will rise higher than anticipated by the FOMC, which will prepare them for a first rate cut in June.Meanwhile, given the Fed’s data dependence, it will continue to be very difficult to push back convincingly against market expectations of an early rate cut.

TDS

The Fed is expected to extend its pause to rate increases for a third consecutive meeting.In our view, the recent tumble in yields poses a challenge for Fed communications as the likely dovishness expressed through the statement and the SEP might overstate the pricing for rate cuts. In light of this, we expect Powell to push back on the idea that mission has been accomplished. The Fed will fail to send a hawkish signal, especially with a downward revision to the SEP. While, this will weigh on the USD on Fed day, we caution that data remain in the driver’s seat. Data in aggregate point to further downside for the USD, but we are cautious of chasing it into year-end and into US CPI. The broad direction of travel for the USD is lower with the risk of non-sticky rallies in the near-term.

Nordea

We expect the new economic projections to revise the outlook for inflation lower, but higher for GDP. They will remove the additional rate hike and still call for 50 bps of cuts next year.Far less than the 125 bps the market is calling for.Whether it will be a big enough wake-up call for the market is still unknown. This is at least the 6th time the market is pricing near-term rate cuts in this cycle, we are not sure they have gotten it right this time either.

SocGen

Fed officials tend to keep policy options open.They should embrace no further hikes following the December FOMC meeting, but at the same time, wish to avoid adding to market speculation on the timing and magnitude of cuts in 2024. It is a fine balancing act, achieved by indicating they are not yet discussing cuts and maintaining the two cuts signalled in the September dot plot.

ING

The Fed is widely expected to leave the Fed funds target range at 5.25%-5.50%.The bigger story is likely to be contained in the individual Fed member forecasts – how far will they look to back the market perceptions that major rate cuts are on their way?We strongly suspect there will be a lot of pushback here.We expect the Fed to retain a relatively upbeat economic assessment with the same 50 bps of rate cuts in 2024 they signalled in their September forecasts, albeit from a lower level given the final 25 bps December hike they forecasted last time is not going to happen.We think the Fed will eventually shift to a more dovish stance, but this may not come until late in the first quarter of 2024.The US economy continues to perform well for now and the jobs market remains tight, but there is growing evidence that the Fed’s interest rate increases and the associated tightening of credit conditions are starting to have the desired effect.We look for 150 bps of rate cuts in 2024, with a further 100 bps in early 2025.

Citi

The Fed is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged but communication and SEP dot revisions might skew somewhat dovish.We expect that the Fed will revise their 2023 core PCE inflation lower and given that officials did not deliver the last hike they had anticipated in 2023, it is likely that the 2024 and 2025 median dots in the SEP move lower by 50 bps to 4.625% and 3.375%, respectively.The 2024 dot would then imply 75 bps of cuts in total for 2024, more than what the dots were showing in September.During the press conference Chair Powell will likely say that it is premature to speculate about cuts and that the Committee will decide meeting by meeting if it needs to hold rates steady or to raise the policy rate.

CIBC

The FOMC has no reason to alter course, and is too divided about what lies ahead to offer definitive guidance, although Powell’s team isn’t likely as dovish as the market in terms of the timing of the first rate cut.

Westpac

It is almost a given the FOMC and Chair Powell will continue to highlight that inflation risks remain their primary focus.Though discussion in the press conference is also likely to include an assessment of the downside risks for growth and the labour market as well as recognition that, without cutting nominal interest rates, the real stance of policy will continue to tighten as inflation eases. If our March start date for cuts is correct, come the January meeting, activity is likely to take over from inflation.

U.S. Treasury sells $37 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.296%

• WI level at the time of the auction 4.282%

• High Yield: 4.296%
• WI level at the time of auction 4.282%
• Tail: 1.4 basis points, Six-auction average 0.9 basis points
• Bid-to-Cover: 2.53X, Six-auction average 2.49x
• Dealers: 17.3%, Six-auction average 14.6%
• Directs (a measure of domestic buyers): 18.87%, Six-auction average 19.0%
• Indirects (a measure of international buyers): 63.83 percent, Six-auction average 66.4%

US sells 3-year notes at 4.490% vs 4.473% WI

• Results of the $50 billion sale

• Prior was 4.701%
• Bid to cover 2.42 vs 2.67 prior
• 1.7 bps tail 

New York Fed survey: Year-ahead inflation expected at 3.4% vs 3.6% prior

• The November NY Fed survey

• One year seen at 3.4% vs 3.6% prior – lowest since April 2021
• Three year ahead unchanged at 3%
• Five year ahead unchanged at 2.7%
• Respondents see moderating wage growth
• Rent seen at +8% vs +9.1% in Oct survey

US November employment trends 113.05 vs 114.16 prior

• Data from The Conference Board

Timiraos: Fed unlikley to talk about rate cuts and perhaps may not for several months

• The latest from the WSJ Fedwatcher

The Fed decision is on Wednesday and WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with his latest. Here’s the key passage:

Fed officials aren’t likely to entertain serious conversations about when to cut rates this week—and potentially for several months unless the economy weakens more than expected.

The report hints at something that market watchers have been eyeing for months: The Fed’s history of cutting around six months after the final hike.

Timiraos hints at the final debate:

One camp says that getting inflation down from a high of 7.1% last year to 3% in October is going to prove much easier than lowering it from 3% to the Fed’s 2% target. That is because most of the drop so far has reflected the unwinding of pandemic-related bottlenecks and worker shortages….Another camp doesn’t assume the last mile will be particularly difficult.

Read it at the WSJ.

Goldman Sachs brings forward expectations for Fed rate cut timing to Q3 next year

• The firm previously saw the first Fed rate cut being in Q4 2024

They note that:“Recent inflation data have been an encouraging surprise even to our optimistic expectations, and our forecast path for year-on-year core PCE inflation has fallen somewhat as a result. ..We are therefore pulling our forecast of the first cut forward to Q3 2024”.

JP Morgan analyst Marko Kolanovic has a poor risk:return for US stocks next year

• Bullish scenario is 5% outperformance whereas bearish is -20% underperfomance

JP Morgan analyst Marko Kolanovic sees a poor risk to return for US stocks next year.

• In the ‘bullish scenario’ he projects stocks outperforming bonds or cash by around 5%
• But, if there’s a recession he forecasts stocks to underperform cash by about 20%

He says that even if the US economy escapes a recession a sustainable rally is not going to happen unless Fed rates fall.

• This is a catch-22 situation, in which risk assets can’t have a sustainable rally at this level of monetary restriction, and there will likely be no decisive easing unless risky assets correct (or inflation declines due to, for example, weaker demand, thus hurting corporate profits)
• This would imply that we would need to first see some market declines and volatility during 2024 before easing of monetary conditions and a more sustainable rally

Bank of America cautions investors on overly optimistic rate cut predictions

• High inflation, and sticky, will limit cuts from the FOMC and ECB
• A note from Friday from Bank of America strategy desk, on the Fed

Says the market has gotten ahead of itself expecting five rate cuts next year from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) BoA says expectations need to be tempered due to:

• Core inflation remains high and stickier than headline inflation
• Since the November meeting the bulk of incoming data has pointed to moderation in economic activity, disinflation, and a cooling labor market We think that this has increased the Fed’s confidence that its current policy stance is appropriate and sufficiently restrictive. If so, upcoming Fed decisions will likely be more about how long to maintain its current policy stance than whether additional policy rate firming is needed.
• The Fed will still see one more inflation report before taking a decision in December. We think that headline and core CPI in November will come in at 0.0% m/m and 0.3%, respectively. Though this would represent an acceleration at the core relative to October, we see this as mainly coming from a reversal in the volatile lodging away from home category. The Fed also received some good news on inflation expectations, with the December University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment showing sizeable declines in one-year-ahead and five- to ten-year-ahead inflation expectations.

FOMC preview and look ahead – no rate cut in March 2024

• There is the potential for a December surprise at the press conference

The U.S. chief economist at Societe Generale is not expecting Federal Reserve Chair Powell to push back too hard against expectations of 100bp or so of rate cuts in 2024 from the FOMC.

• “I just don’t see the Fed pushing back super-hard.It will be a mild pushback”

He isn’t expecting a March rate cut though, saying the news on the economy would have to be “jarring” to get such a quick cut.

Other expectations:

• Fed’s policy statement will continue to lean hawkish, once again mentioning the possibility for future tightening.
• The revised “dot-plot” in the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) will show 50 basis points of cuts in 2024 same as in September’s SEP).
• New forecasts will persist in projecting slower economic growth in 2024 and no recession
• Powell will once again say that the Fed might have to hike interest rates again if inflation re-accelerates, and that its “premature” to talk about rate cuts

Commodities

Silver hurdles key supports, challenges trendline around $22.70

• Silver continues to sink, after hitting $24.63, so far down 10.41% since last week.
• The white metal is bearishly biased, with sellers eyeing $21.88.
• If Silver buyers reclaim $23.00, upside risks emerge with key resistance levels at the 100 and 200 DMAs.

Silver dives during the North American session, though it remains above a two-month-old support trendline that passes at around the $22.70 area. At the time of writing, thewhite metal is trading at around $22.74, down by 1.02%.

Silver’s daily chart portrays the grey metal as downward biased but its downtrend stalled at a support level. If sellers would like to challenge the November 13 swing low, they must regain the $22.50 area, followed by the $22.00 per troy ounce figure. That would keep the bears in charge and could open the door to test October’s low of $20.69.

Gold extends decline to 1%, breaking support

• More support seen in the $1950-$1920 range

Gold is falling today as the market rethinks some of the aggressive rate cuts that are built into Fed funds futures in 2024.The market now sees 107 basis points in easing, down about 20 bps since Friday’s stronger non-farm payrolls report.

The US dollar is generally stronger today, including a 1% gain against the yen but other pairs are only up modestly and not enough to account for the weakness in gold.

The area to watch is $1950-$1920 where the 55-day, 100-day and 200-day moving average all lurk, along with the November low. Today the pair took out the minor uptrend from the October low, which should signal more selling.

Seasonally, there is a tailwind for gold through February and that should also provide some support.

Crude oil little changed in trading today

• Crude oil settles at $71.32 up nine cents or 0.13%

The price of WTI crude oil futures are settling at $71.32. That’s up nine cents on the day or 0.13%. The low price reached $70.35. The high price reached $71.81. Last week the low price extended to $68.80 before rebounding on Thursday and Friday. The price is now up two days in a row.

Natural Gas drops 10% with COP28 agreement disenchanting

• Natural Gas drops 10% during US trading session taking over from the European one.
• Natural Gas prices are heading to $2 at this pace.
• The US Dollar is steady ahead of US CPI and the last Fed’s policy meeting for 2023.

Natural Gas prices are accelerating their decline on Monday with headlines that a COP28 draft agreement is around the corner. The fossil fuels are set to be reduced, in stead of being phased out, after oppositions from oil and gas-producing countries under the lead of Saudi Arabia. It is the first time in history that a country that is organising the COP-gathering, is asking for a less severe agreement in terms of climate control and reduction of usage for fossil fuels. 

China’s crude imports fell to a four-month low in November; decline in domestic demand

• State-run refineries reduced their output due to a decline in domestic demand.

ICYMI – On Friday China’s General Administration of Customs showed crude imports fell 10% from October to a four-month low in November.

The data from China Customs doesn’t include China’s domestic oil production in November; China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to publish this data this week.

• suggested the state-run refineries cut their crude imports as their average utilization rate fell to a five-month low of 81.3% amid slow domestic demand
• In December, Sinopec and PetroChina are more likely to keep their crude imports stable or even reduce them in order to avoid deep inventory loss by year-end amid falling crude oil prices.
• some analysts said they expect the Chinese government to take advantage of the declining crude oil price to build the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).

Fire triggers explosions at Eastern Iran’s Birjand Refinery

• All 18 reservoirs caught fire, resulting in the loss of 1.5 million litres of fuel

Weekend news of fires at refinery reservoirs in the Birjand special economic zone in eastern Iran.

Iranian state media:

• fire at a small refinery … two explosions
• No casualties were reported
• all 18 reservoirs at the refinery have caught fire
• “The initial stages of the fire consumed 1.5 million litres of fuel”

EU News

ECB rate cuts expected in 2024, beginning March, as euro area inflation declines rapidly

• Forecast for the European Central Bank to cut rates on March 7, 2024

A note via ANZ on their outlook for the ECB, the main summary points:

Conditions for European Central Bank rate cuts to be in place in early 2024 Euro area inflation is falling rapidly.

• We think, by early 2024, interest rates will have been held sufficiently high for sufficiently long for the ECB to feel that inflation will retum to target in a “timely manner”.
• We expect the Goveming Council will start to cut interest rates in March 2024, by which time, the effects of monetary tightening will be weighing on demand, and monetary and credit aggregates are already contracting.
• The ECB rnay review and discuss the path of reinvestment in Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme.Given current and expected inflation trends and monetary developments, we expect the ECB to proceed cautiously with any future changes, if at all.

SNB total sight deposits W.E 8 December CHF 471.7 bn vs CHF 474.1 bn prior

• Latest data released by the SNB – 11 December 2023
• Domestic sight deposits CHF 463.2 bn vs CHF 464.1 bn prior

SNB to keep key policy rate unchanged until at least Q3 next year – Reuters poll

• The SNB is expected to hold rates steady for much longer than the ECB

The first ECB rate cut is baked in for April currently but market participants are not seeing the SNB move as quickly as their usual counterpart. The latest Reuters poll on economists is only showing the Swiss central bank to keep its key policy rate unchanged until at least September next year.

Of note, the poll shows that 21 of 31 economists (nearly 70%) expect the SNB to keep rates unchanged until Q3 2024 with only 13 of 29 economists polled predicting that the first rate cut will only come in December next year.

UK manufacturing sector shows green shoots as restocking and export orders rise

• A recent survey by Make UK reveals positive growth in the factory sector

A survey by the manufacturing representative group Make UK reports some green shoots in the factory sector.

Some of the main findings:

• restocking and export orders picked up
• factories raised output at three times the pace of growth in orders in the final three months of 2023, fastest since late 2019
• share of firms seeing a rise in export orders rather than fall rose to a balance of +10% from -3%
• domestic orders stayed flat

Info via Reuters.

Bank of America cautions investors on overly optimistic rate cut predictions

• High inflation, and sticky, will limit cuts from the ECB

• disinflation in the Eurozone at the current rate could support rate cuts beginning in March

And where the risk is:

• “In any case, given aggressive market pricing, we see the balance of risks for central banks doing less next year, particularly in a soft landing scenario”

Bank of England to cut rates faster than expected, says Goldman Sachs

• Goldman Sachs predicts that the Bank of England will make its first rate cut in August 2024

Via a note from Goldman Sachs over the weekend on their expectations for the Bank of England next year:

• Bank of England first 25 bp rate cut in August
• to be followed by similar decreases made at each policy meeting until the Bank rate reaches 3% in mid-2025,

Prior to this Goldman Sachs were projecting one rate cut per quarter.

GS cite theeir reasoning for expecting quicker cuts now

• a quicker decline in inflation
• quicker pace is more in line with historical cutting cycles
• also expect ECB easing

Asia-Pacific-World News

Weekend news: China CPI -0.5% y/y vs -0.1% expected

• China CPI surprises to the downside

• CPI -0.5% vs -0.1%
• Prior was -0.2%
• CPI m/m -0.5% vs -0.1% expected
• Prior was -0.1% m/m

• PPI -3.0% y/y vs -2.8% expected
• Prior PPI -2.6% y/y

BOJ reportedly sees little necessity to rush an end to negative rates this month

• Bloomberg reports on the matter

This was in part why the Japanese yen has started off on a weaker note in European morning trade, with the report stating that BOJ officials are seeing little need to hastily end negative interest rates amid a lack of evidence of wage growth that would support sustainable inflation.

The sources cited also say that policymakers are of the view that the potential cost of waiting for more information to confirm solid wage growth as not very high. That just means that the policy meeting this month should be a rehash of their current stance and not to suggest an imminent shift or a pivot just yet.

Ueda remark’s taken out of context by the market, the report shifted USD/JPY

• And why the US jobs report further boosted USD/JPY

The original Reuters report is here (link below) and worth checking out for JPY traders. It has a fairly innocuous headline but the bombshells are in the piece itself:

• Softening consumption may delay BOJ’s exit from easy policy
• Recent weakness in consumption has emerged as a fresh source of concern for Bank of Japan policymakers who are eyeing an exit from negative interest rates, three sources familiar with its thinking said, suggesting market expectations of an imminent rate hike may be over-blown.
• Ueda’s remark, which came in response to a lawmaker’s question on the challenges he has faced since becoming governor in April, was taken out of context by markets and was not meant to signal an imminent policy shift, the sources said

Cryptocurrency News

Bitcoin price backtracks to $40,000 as whales move to sell $671 million worth of BTC

• Bitcoin price seemingly took a major hit on Monday, falling to $40,000 at one point before recovering to $42,000.
• According to the Coinbase Premium Gap (CPG) plunge, the crash was caused by the intervention of whales.
• Since the beginning of December, investors have avoided taking high-leverage risk in the derivatives trade.

Bitcoin crashed on Monday for the first time in nearly three weeks.The market was expecting a bullish continuation until the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) approves a spot BTC ETF in January 2024.However, the sudden drop in the market surprised investors on Monday, which resulted in the breakdown of this optimism, also known as “panic”, caused by whale selling.

Bitcoin whales crash the market

Bitcoin price nearly fell below $40,000 over the past 24 hours and liquidated over $340 million worth of long contracts in the span of mere minutes.While the definite reason behind this crash is uncertain, the most plausible reason is whale selling.

Aptos holders gear up for likely APT price decline ahead of $195 million token unlock

• Aptos has a 24.8 million APT token unlock scheduled for December 12. 
• The unlock represents 8.9% of Aptos’ circulating supply worth $195 million. 
• Aptos on-chain metrics support a bearish outlook on APT price.

Aptos, a Layer 1 blockchain token, is heading towards a scheduled token unlock event. on Tuesday, December 12, 24.8 million APT tokens worth $195 million will be unlocked.The token unlock is a key event as it is likely to influence APT price.

Bitcoin extends decline to 9%

• Easy come, easy go

Bitcoin has now erased most of last week’s gain. Prices of bitcoin have dropped 8.9%, or $4000 today to $40,550.The selling started in Asia without a catalyst and has continued today. Some eyes were on long options bets that were liquidated.

The drop in bitcoin this week comes with declines in gold and rally in the US dollar and climbing Treasury yields. The theme is that the Fed may not cut as much as previously thought, delaying a return to the days of easy money.

Pension giant invests US $20m into a UK crypto derivatives trading platform

• The asset management arm of pensions behemoth M&G Plc

A report on the asset management arm of pensions giant M&G Plc said it had invested US$20 million into a UK crypto derivatives trading platform

• M&G Investments stake is part of a $30 million series B funding round for Global Futures and Options Ltd., also known as GFO-X.
• capital provided by M&G’s Crossover strategy on behalf of its £129 billion Prudential With-Profits Fund

Info comes via Bloomberg (gated)

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