Round up of today's market news *

North American News

November 2023 Witnessed Unprecedented Stock Market Surges: Nasdaq Takes the Lead in Record-Breaking Gains

Nasdaq’s stellar performance fuels the better trading months for 2023. The Dow, S&P, and smaller cap Russell 2000 also experience notable increases.

Today marked a remarkable upswing for the Dow, largely propelled by the stellar performance of Salesforce (CRM), whose shares surged an impressive 8.87%. UnitedHealth also made significant strides, recording a notable rise of 3.37%. Boeing and American Express contributed to the Dow’s success as well, with gains of 3.23% and nearly 1.97%, respectively. This collective momentum steered the Dow to a substantial gain of 520.54 points, representing a robust 1.47% increase – the most substantial leap since November 2.

While the Dow celebrated a standout day, the broader market landscape presented a mixed picture. The S&P and NASDAQ indices didn’t experience the same fortune as the Dow, yet their overall monthly performance paints a brighter picture, signaling resilience and promising prospects for the future.

Looking at the final numbers for the day:

Dow industrial average rose 520.47 points or 1.47% at 35950.88
S&P index rose 17.19 points or 0.38% at 4567.76
NASDAQ index fell -32.28 points or -0.23% at 14226.21

The smaller cap Russell 2000 rose 5.21 points or 0.29% at 1809.02.

It was a month which saw stellar gains for the broader indices. Looking at the monthly gains:

Dow industrial average rose 8.77%.That’s the largest gain since October 2022 when the index rose 13.95%.
S&P index rose 8.92% which was its largest gain since July 2022 when the index rose 9.11%..
NASDAQ index outpaced both those indices with a gain of 10.70%.That was its largest gain since July 2022 (the gain from January 2023 was just below at 10.68%).

The Russell 2000 rose 8.827% for the month of November. That was its largest gain since January

For the trading year with one month to go:

Dow industrial average is up 8.46%
S&P index is up 18.97%
NASDAQ index is up 35.92%
Russell 2000 is lagging with a gain of 2.712%

Looking at the Dow stocks for the month:

Salesforce led the way with a gain of 24.63%.Its shares are up 88.78% this year.
Boeing rose 23.43% this month which accounts for all its gains for the year.For the year the shares of Boeing are up 21.06%.
Intel shares rose 22.44%.For the trading year it’s shares are up 69.09%. Intel is a second-biggest Dow gainer in 2023

The biggest Dow losers this month were:

Cisco which fell -7.56% after reporting disappointing earnings.
Walgreens boots-5.88% and is down -46.9% for the year – the worst Dow performer in 2023
Walmart the large retailer fell -4.85%
Chevron fell -1.56% and is down -20.07% in 2023

Looking at some of the other big gainers this month:

Shopify rose 54.31% and is up 109.80% year-to-date
Palantir rose 34.86% in November and is up 210.90% year-to-date
Crowdstrike rose 33.87% and is up 124.76% for the year
Uber rose 29.85%
Snowflake rose 28.93%
Doordash rose 25.18%

Some losers this month included:

Raytheon -36.14%
Chewy, -10.29%
Alibaba -9.27%
Schlumberger -6.67%
Exxon Mobile -6.46%

How did the Magnificent 7 do this month, and how are they doing this year?

Tesla, +18.91% for November. Shares are up 94.67% this year
Nvidia, +14.46% for November. Shares are up 220.04% this year
Microsoft, +11.76% for November. Shares are up 57.92% this year
Apple, plus a 10.92% for November. Shares are up 46.16% for the year
Amazon, +9.78% for November. Shares are up 73.87% this year
Meta , +7.78% for November. Shares are up 171.85% this year
Alphabet, +6.28% for November. Shares are up 50.12% for the year

Salesforce Surges Beyond $250 Following Impressive Earnings Report, Outshining Other Indices as Dow Takes the Lead

Salesforce beats Wall Street earnings forecast for Q3.
CRM stock jumps 9% at the open on Thursday.
Dow Jones continues to lead NASDAQ, S&P 500 as Salesforce is a component.

Salesforce (CRM) shares experienced a robust 8.6% surge in the latter part of Thursday’s trading session, reaching a noteworthy $250 per share. The impressive uptick in the stock value was attributed to the strategic incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) integrations across Salesforce’s product suite, fostering substantial growth in both profits and revenue during the third quarter. Investors responded positively to this development, propelling Salesforce’s stock price to a remarkable 9% increase at the opening bell on Thursday. This surge played a pivotal role in propelling the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to its most significant gain of the week, registering a 1% uptick later in the session. Notably, Salesforce holds a substantial 4.3% weighting in the Dow index, underscoring its influential role in the overall market

Salesforce’s Stellar Earnings Fueled by AI Triumph: A Year of Remarkable Growth

Salesforce, in its latest earnings report, demonstrated exceptional performance, surpassing Wall Street expectations with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.11 – a notable five cents above the forecasted average. This impressive result marked a remarkable 50% increase compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The company’s revenue met expectations at $8.72 billion, showcasing an impressive 11% year-over-year growth.

A key highlight was Salesforce’s AI-focused product, Data Cloud, which is undergoing trials with over 1,000 customers, indicating a strong appetite for artificial intelligence solutions in the market. Furthermore, the AI-infused platform, Einstein GPT CoPilot, has gained traction, with 17% of Fortune 500 companies now leveraging it for an astounding 1 trillion queries per week. Analysts expressed enthusiasm for the swift adoption of AI technologies, viewing these figures as a catalyst for significant future growth.

CEO Marc Benioff emphasized Salesforce’s position as the leading force in AI Customer Relationship Management, asserting, “We are the number one AI [Customer Relationship Management], leading the industry through the unprecedented AI innovation cycle.”

In a strategic move, Salesforce repurchased $1.9 billion worth of shares during the quarter, garnering positive attention from analysts. This buyback, considering the share price during Q3, represented slightly over 1% of outstanding shares, reflecting the company’s confidence in its own value.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Salesforce provided optimistic guidance, projecting revenue between $9.18 billion to $9.23 billion, showcasing a robust 10% gain from the previous year. The adjusted EPS is anticipated to be in the range of $2.25 to $2.26, signifying an impressive 34% year-over-year growth. These forecasts underscore the company’s anticipation of sustained success and continued financial strength in the evolving landscape of AI-driven technologies.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 growth comes in at 1.8% from 2.1%

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q4 growth

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q growth has dipped to 1.8% from 2.1% on November 22. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.8 percent on November 30, down from 2.1 percent on November 22. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from -1.1 percent to -2.7 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.09 percentage points to -0.05 percentage points.

The next report will be released on December 1

US September PCE core +3.5% vs +3.5% expected

US October PCE data

Prior was +3.7%
PCE core m/m +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
Prior core m/m +0.3%
Headline PCE +3.0% vs +3.0% y/y expected (prior +3.4%)
Deflator m/m +0.0% vs +0.1% expected (prior +0.4%)

Consumer spending and income for October:

Personal income +0.2% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.3%
Personal spending +0.2% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.7%
Real personal spending +0.2% vs +0.4% prior

US pending home sales for October -1.5% versus -2.0% expected

US pending home sales for the month of October 2023

Prior month +1.1% (they were expecting -1.8%) revised to 1.0%
Pending home sales -1.5% versus -2.0% expected
Pending home index 71.4 versus 72.5 last month (revised from 72.6). This is the lowest level on record (since 2001).
Existing home sales last week came in at 3.79M annualized sales pace versus 3.90M estimate and 3.95M last month.
New home sales this week came in much weaker than expected at 679K vs 724K expected and 719K last month.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist said:

“During October, mortgage rates were at their highest, and contract signings for existing homes were at their lowest in more than 20 years. Recent weeks’ successive declines in mortgage rates will help qualify more home buyers, but limited housing inventory is significantly preventing housing demand from fully being satisfied. Multiple offers, of course, yield only one winner, with the rest left to continue their search.”

Yun added:

“Home sales are rising in places where more inventory is available. Sales for properties priced above $750,000 were higher than a year ago, because there is more inventory at this price point than what we saw last October.Additionally, newly built home sales are up 4.5% year-to-date due to homebuilders’ ability to create more inventory.¹ It is vital that we continue to focus on boosting housing supply by all means in all corners of the country over the coming months.”

The NAR last month came out with expectations for 2024.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecasts a 6.9% average for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in 2023, decreasing to an average of 6.3% in 2024.
The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 3.7% in 2023 and then rise to 4.1% in 2024.
NAR anticipates a 17.5% decrease in existing-home sales in 2023, dropping to 4.15 million, followed by a 13.5% increase to 4.71 million in 2024.
The national median existing-home prices are projected to remain stable in 2023, increasing slightly by 0.1% to $386,700, and then rising by 0.7% to $389,500 in 2024.
Housing starts are predicted to drop 10.4% from 2022 to 2023, reaching 1.39 million, and then increase by 6.5% to 1.48 million in 2024.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts a 4.5% increase in newly constructed home sales in 2023, reaching 670,000, attributed to additional inventory in this market segment.
NAR forecasts a further 19.4% rise in new home sales in 2024, totaling 800,000.
The national median new home price is projected to decrease by 5.9% in 2023, falling to $430,800.
In 2024, the median new home price is expected to recover, increasing by 3.5% to $445,800.

US Initial jobless claims 218K vs 220K estimate. Continuing claims highest since Nov. 2021

The US initial jobs claims in continuing claims from the current week

Initial jobs claims prior week 209K revised to 211K
initial jobs claims vs 220K estimate.
4-week moving average of initial jobs claims to 220K vs 220.50 last week .
Continuing claims 1.927M versus 1.872M estimate.That is the highest November 2021
Prior week of continuing claims 1.840M revised to 1841M
4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.866M vs 1.837M last week.That is the highest level since December 11, 2021.

Fed’s Williams: If inflation pressures persist, we could hike again

Comments from the New York Fed President
We are at or near the peak of interest rate target
Sees inflation falling to 2.25% in 2024
Inflation will close in on 2% in 2025
Financial conditions have tightened
Sees GDP at 1.25% next year
Sees unemployment at 4.25% next year
Sees upside and downside risks for inflation
Says he’s not losing sleep over market views of Fed funds path
Key for policy is persistence of easing in financial conditions
Notes a significant decline in inflation
Financial conditions are volatile and markets are sensitive

Fed’s Daly: It’s still too early to know if Fed is done hiking rates

No change in stance from Daly
‘Should take our time now and remain vigilant’
Need to better understand what’s happening with the economy and inflation
Latest data is encouraging
I’m not thinking about rate cuts at all right now
Economy needs to cool down a little more
Further rate hikes are not our ‘base case’
Hearing more and more it is harder for companies to pass along price hikes
People’s fear of recession has faded into the background

Bank of America forecasts for US yield curve in 2024

10-year Treasury yield expected to reach 4.25% by the end of the year

Analysts at Bank of America, via a note on Wednesday US time ICYMI, forecasts:

US 2 / 10 Treasuries yield curve to finish 2024 in positive territory at 25 basis points
US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.25% end of 2024

The analysts at BoA say they are becoming increasingly confident that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will deliver rate cuts in 2024

Barclays forecasts bullish US equities growth in 2024 despite near-term cautions

Aggregate equity exposure remains slightly below neutral

Barclays is looking for continued gains in US equities into the new year but are cautious near term. From a Wednesday (US time) note from analyst at the firm, in summary:

lower rates in November have helped boost flows into equities, long-duration assets generally.
growth stocks in technology and cyclical in particular have befitted
buying from numerous tranches of investors: long-only, retail investors, real money, along with those covering shorts

The analysts sound a cautionary tone in the near term:

Rally looks exhausted

However:

overall equity exposure is only about neutral
cash holdings are high
(a soft landing feels to be the consensus, and with poor returns by mutual funds in November it suggests that) positioning is defensive and pain trade remains to the upside into 2024
Aggregate equity positioning still looks marginally below neutral
discretionary investors holding lower equity exposure compared with systematic peers

JP Morgan predicts S&P 500 drop to 4,200 by end-2024

Forecasts a challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year

A snippet from JP Morgan’s chief global equity strategist, forecasting the US S&P 500 Index to drop to 4,200 by the end of 2024.

Citing:

Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year
softening consumer trends
at a time when investor positioning and sentiment have mostly reversed

2024: “The Year of Bonds” (thats the view according to Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs predicts a steepening yield curve, Fed pivot, inflation fall, growth slows

Comments via Goldman Sachs on what next year will bring:

I don’t think the Fed is going to be fast to pivot
but that’s going to be “the direction of travel” because we are seeing inflation falling and a slowing down in growth
2024 “is going to be the year of bonds”
(bonds will be) performing well. You’ll also see a steepening of the yield curve because there’s a lot of borrowing that is going to take place

Treas Sec Yellen:Hopes Americans will gradually recognize improvements in their situation

US Treasury Sec. Yellen highlights the positive state of the economy, expects a soft economic landing and believes longer-term investments will boost optimism about the future.

The US election is less than one year away and the Biden administration will be heavy on the “economy is good/ inflation is not that bad” rhetoric

U.S. Treasury Sec. (and former Fed chair Yellen) on the wires saying:

Yellen advocates for lithium mining in the U.S., emphasizing the necessity of environmental responsibility.
She observes that the labor market is essentially at full employment and the economy continues to grow.
Yellen does not believe further drastic tightening of monetary policy is needed, expressing optimism for a soft economic landing.
She notes a significant decrease in inflation, with wage gains translating into more real income for individuals.
Yellen hopes Americans will gradually recognize improvements in their situation, acknowledging the lingering impact of recent tough times.
She believes that a longer-term investment strategy will positively influence people’s optimism about the future direction of the economy.

Canada Q3 GDP -0.3% q/q vs +0.2% expected

Third quarter Canadian GDP data, quarter-over-quarter

Annualized q/q GDP -1.1% vs +0.2% expected
Q2 annualized q/q GDP revised to +1.4% from -0.2%
September GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% expected
August GDP was 0.0%
Prelim Oct GDP +0.2%
Q2 GDP revised to +0.3% from 0.0%
GDP implicit price Q/Q +1.8% vs +0.7% prior (prior revised to +0.4%)
Q3 final domestic demand +0.3% vs +0.3% prior

“The decrease in international exports and slower inventory accumulationwere partially offset by increases in government spending and housinginvestment,” the report said.

Exports of goods and services fell 1.3% in the third quarter after increasing 1.3% in the second quarter. The leading contributor to the decrease was refined petroleum energy products, which dropped 25.4% in the third quarter after rising 23.9% in the second quarter. That looks like refinery maintenance and oilfield turnarounds, rather than a big problem in the domestic economy.

Commodities

Silver soars and breaks above $25.00, hits four-month high

Silver surpasses the key $25.00 level, reaching a four-month peak at $25.25.
After a brief pause on November 29, Silver resumed its upward trend.
Key resistance levels to watch include the psychological barrier at $25.50, the May 10 swing high at $25.91, and the year-to-date high of $26.13.
It would shift bearish on a daily close below $25.00.

Silver climbs above the $25.00 figure for the first time since August and reaches a four-month high of $25.25, even though US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD) post solid gains.
Nevertheless, the grey metal rises more than 0.70%, exchanging hands above the $25.10 area.

The white metal resumed its uptrend after pausing on November 29, which witnessed the formation of a ‘doji,’ but buyers achieving a daily close above $25.00 opened the door for further gains. That said, the first resistance would be the psychological $25.50 area, followed by the May 10 swing high at $25.91, ahead of the year-to-date (YTD) high of $26.13.

WTI drops following OPEC+ production cut decision

WTI dropped more than $3.00 after hitting a daily high of $79.56, shy of the $80.00 per barrel barrier.
OPEC+ decided to slash Crude Oil production, but at a pace slower than expected by market participants.
Oil production in the US rose to a monthly record, despite the production contraction in Texas.

The US Crude Oil benchmark WTI tumbles more than 2% on Thursday after the OPEC+ producers agreed to cut production for the first quarter of 2024, though it fell short of market expectations.At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $76.02 after hitting a daily high of $79.56.

WTI crude oil sees a significant drop despite OPEC+ agreement on production cuts for Q1 2024

Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other members of the OPEC+ agreed to cut almost 2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024.Hence, the Saudis and Russia committed to extend their 1.3 million barrels cut for the next year.

Brazil will join OPEC+ — report

Reports that Brazil will join OPEC+

Joining OPEC+ is a big difference from joining OPEC but it might be the first step. The move is effective on Jan 1.

OPEC+ agrees on 1 mbpd of extra supply cuts – report

That’s on top of the 1 mbpd Saudi voluntary cut, according to the report

This is a pretty big cut. It’s not clear from the report how long the agreement is for. If it’s through Q1, that would be extra bullish.

OPEC+ is showing unprecedented unity and discipline right now but history shows there is a time bomb there and now there’s more than 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity out there. That likely caps oil near $100.

More details are coming now:

Algeria agrees to cut output by additional 50K bpd
Saudi to cut by 1 mbpd bpd (same amount as before via the lollypop cut)
Russia to cut by 500k bpd
Others to cut ‘more’

OPEC JMMC meeting ends with no recommendation – report

Reuters report, citing a source

This isn’t a surprise, the JMMC talks about production and makes forecasts for demand. It’s up to OPEC to make the decisions.

OPEC discussing deeper output cuts for Q1, could approach 2 mbpd

The leaks suggest deeper cuts

Meetings used to be for deciding things.

But with central banks and oil cartels, it’s all decided ahead of time nowdays.The OPEC JMMC monitoring committee is meeting now and at 9:30 am ET (2:30 pm in London), the main meeting will get underway.It’s all in virtual format, so the leaks are a tad less porous than usual but the basic tenants of the deal are out there.

Reuters reports now that the cuts could appoach 2 mbpd depending on countries’ willingness to contribute. That’s a bullish headline.

Barclays predicts Brent crude at $93/bbl in 2024, dismiss worries on oil demand

Barclays on OPEC+ unity: African producers’ target levels no existential threat to OPEC

An ICYMI on oil forecasts from Barclays.

Analysts assess the fair value estimate for Brent crude in 2024 at US$93/bbl and forward curve is at $80/bbl

Citing:

oil markets have likely gone too far in worrying about demand and OPEC+ cohesion
oil demand not falling off a cliff
arguments about new target levels for African producers do not pose an existential threat to OPEC+

EU News

European equity close: Tie a bow on a great month

Closing changes from the main European bourses

The major European indices are closing the day mostly higher. The exception is Spain’s Ibex which is closing near unchanged.

On the day:

STOXX 600 +0.51%
German DAX, +0.30%
France CAC, 0.59%
UK FTSE 100 0.41%
Spain’s IBEX -0.04%
Italy’s FTSE MIB, 0.20%

For the trading month, there were some stellar returns with the German DAX up near 9.5%. That was surpassed by Spain’s Ibex which increased by 11.5% – it’s a largest gain since November 2020.

On the month:

STOXX 600 6.41%
German DAX, +9.49%. That is the largest game since November 2022
France CAC, + 6.17%. The largest gain since January 2023
UK FTSE 100 1.8%
Spain’s IBEX 11.54%. That is the largest gain since November 2020
Italy’s FTSE MIB, +7.22%

For the trading year, the UK FTSE 100 is trading near unchanged, but the other indices show solid gains:

STOXX 600, +8.61%
German DAX, +16.46%
France CAC, +12.93%
UK FTSE 100 unchanged
Spain’s Ibex, +22.23%
Italy’s FTSE MIB, +25.47%

Eurozone October unemployment rate 6.5% vs 6.5% expected

Latest data released by Eurostat – 30 November 2023
Prior 6.5%

Eurozone November preliminary CPI +2.4% vs +2.7% y/y expected

Latest data released by Eurostat – 30 November 2023

Prior +2.9%
Core CPI +3.6% vs +3.9% y/y expected
Prior +4.2%

Germany October retail sales +1.1% vs +0.4% m/m expected

Latest data released by Destatis – 30 November 2023
Prior -0.8%

That’s a welcome beat for German retail sales to start Q4, following months of softer readings in general. The details are a bit mixed though with food retail sales falling by 1.3% on the month while non-food retail sales increased by 1.4% compared to September. Meanwhile, online and mail order sales were seen up 2.9% on the month but overall sales are down 1.2% relative to the same month a year ago.

Germany November unemployment change 22k vs 22k expected

Latest data released by the Federal Employment Agency – 30 November 2023

Prior 30k
Unemployment rate 5.9% vs 5.8% expected
Prior 5.8%

France November preliminary CPI +3.4% vs +3.7% y/y expected

Latest data released by INSEE – 30 November 2023

Prior +4.0%
HICP +3.8% vs +4.1% y/y expected
Prior +4.5%

France Q3 final GDP -0.1% vs +0.1% q/q prelim

Latest data released by INSEE – 30 November 2023

The revision lower here isn’t a good look as the French economy now looks to perhaps see a marginal recession towards the end of the year. The details are slightly better though with domestic demand actually showing an increase of 0.5% on the quarter but offset by inventory changes (-0.2%) and net foreign trade (-0.4%).

Switzerland November KOF leading indicator index 96.7 vs 96.6 expected

Latest data released by KOF – 30 November 2023
Prior 95.8; revised to 95.1

ECBs Nagel: Considers further rate hikes as inflation risk persist

ECB Nagel is cautious about recent inflation developments and says he may favor raising rates. Longer-term inflation expectations are above target, and reducing the balance sheet is suggested. Rate cuts are not yet on the table.
The ECB is not yet satisfied with the recent developments in inflation.
Further rate hikes remain a possibility as inflation risks are still on the upside.
Longer-term inflation expectations continue to be significantly above the 2% target.
Advocacy for a reduction in the ECB’s balance sheet, which could be accelerated.
It is currently too early to consider rate cuts.

ECB’s Panetta: Current interest rates level consistent to bring inflation down to target

Remarks by ECB executive board member, Fabio Panetta
May be able to ease monetary conditions if persistently weak output accelerates the decline in inflation
Monetary tightening has not yet had full impact and will continue to dampen demand in the future
Risks to Eurozone economy are tilted to the downside
The economy remains weak in Q4 2023

UK business jumps to its most optimistic in almost two years

Lloyds Bank survey for its Business Barometer confidence measure 42 in November (prior 39)

Lloyds Bank Business Barometer measure of confidence hit 42 in November from October’s 39

highest since February 2022

long run average is 28

Firms cite optimism on the economy and their own trading outlook

Lloyds comment:

“We’ve also seen a real turnaround in sentiment for manufacturers, with business confidence at a five-month high, reflecting the expectation among many firms that interest rates have now peaked and may begin to fall next year,”
“Our data (is) continuing to show that firms are still safeguarding their profit margins in response to past rises in interest rates, wage increase pressures, and the prospect of higher energy prices again this winter,”

Bank of England Governor Bailey says the UK outlook is worst I’ve seen

Bailey warns of bleakest UK outlook in his career

UK Times in brief with the report:

Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, has hit back atcritics who have claimed he has taken an “ultra pessimistic” view of the UK economy.
This week, Bailey painted an extremely dim picture of the UK economy, claiming that its present potential growth trajectory is the “worst” he has seen in his career.
“I’ve been written up this week as being an ultra-pessimist, but I don’t see it that way. I see it as a realist view,” Bailey told Staffordshire’s Daily Focus newspaper.
Bailey added that in order to revive the UK economy’s fortunes, policymakers must focus on “getting our sleeves rolled-up and tackling the issues we face”.

Asia-Pacific-World News

China November PMIs: Manufacturing 49.4 (expected 49.7) Services 50.2 (expected 51.1)

November 2023 official Chinese PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

Composite 50.4, prior 50.7

China’s Powerlong Real Estate has defaulted on its debt payment

The default continues to raise concerns about the stability of the Chinese property market

China’s Powerlong Real Estate has defaulted.

The firm warned on Wednesday its cash on hand and bank deposits was not enough to make existing and future debt payment.
has not made an interest payment of $15.9 million under 5.95% senior notes due April 2025 (notes are listed on the Singapore Exchange)
Powerlong’s interest became due and payable on October 30, and it had a 30 day grace period to make the payment
It hasn’t paid and has thus defaulted

Australian data – Q3 Capex headline +0.6% vs. +1.0% expected

Private Capital Expenditure from the Australian Bureau of Statistics

The headline figure is +0.3% q/q (+1.0% expected and +2.8% prior) and +4.8% y/y (+5.0% prior)

Total new capital expenditure rose by 0.6% q/q and 10.7% y/y
Buildings and structures rose by 0.7% q/q and by 13.7% y/y
Equipment, plant and machinery rose by 0.5% q/q and by 7.4% y/y
Estimate 4 for 2023-24 is $171.2b. This is 8.5% higher than Estimate 3 for 2023-24

Australian October 2023 Private Sector Credit +0.3% m/m (expected +0.4%)

Housing credit growth leads the way

Data from the Reserve Bank of Australia

Headline is up 0.4% m/m and 4.8% y/y
Housing credit up 0.4% m/m

Published at the same was building approvals, for October: +7.5% m/m

expected +2.0% and prior -4.6%

New Zealand November business confidence 30.8 (prior 23.4)

New Zealand data – ANZ Business Survey:

Business confidence 30.8 (October was 23.4%%)
Activity 26.3 (October was 23.1%)

Summary table from ANZ’s report:

New Zealand data: October building permits +8.7% m/m (prior -4.7)

New Zealand building consents data for October 2023.

+ 8.7% m/m
prior +4.6%
For the y/y down 14.2%

RBNZ Governor Orr says that core inflation is still too high

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr warns of persistently high core inflation

Orr adds that a concern he has is that inflation will not slow fast enough

The Bank is not considering rate cuts any time soon

High chance for YCC and negative rates to be scrapped as soon as April – ex-BOJ official

Comments by former BOJ deputy governor, Toshiro Muto

Muto says that as things stand, there is a high chance for yield curve control (YCC) and negative rates to be scrapped – possibly as early as April next year. The key thing that such a development hinges on will be the outcome of the spring wage negotiations. Meanwhile, he also says that the BOJ has no choice but to hold on to ETFs for now as any unwinding in their holdings could trigger a market selloff.

He’s just reaffirming the market landscape and outlook at the moment. As mentioned many times already, the BOJ has kicked the can down the road to next March and April as they hope to make a change after the spring wage negotiations then. The question in the next few months will be whether the inflation outlook will have materially changed by then to justify such a move.

Japan October Industrial production (preliminary) +1.0% m/m (expected 0.8%)

Retail trade data also, October +4.2% y/y (expected +5.9%)

Japanese manufacturers’ forecasts:

expect November output at -0.3% m/m (prior forecast was -2.8%)
expect December output at +3.2% m/m

A Japanese govt official on industrial output:

overall motor vehicle production went up in October, but regular passenger car output went down partly due to Toyota’s output disruption

BOJ’s Nakamura says it’ll be some time before easy money policy is changed

Nakamura says the Board is cautiously assessing inflation and wage growth.

Will need some more time before we can modify easy monetary policy
Now is a time to be cautious in our policy response
Current inflation is mostly driven by cost-push factors
We haven’t reached a stage where we can say with conviction that sustained, stable achievement of 2% inflation accompanied by wage growth is in sight
We are seeing signs Japan will see wage growth exceeding rate of inflation
Must patiently maintain current monetary easing for time being

South Korea’s Industrial Output plunges in October, Retail sales slump

Industrial output has fallen at its fastest m/m rate since December 2022

South Korea October 2023 data:

Industrial output has fallen at its fastest m/m rate since December 2022 at -3.5% (expected +0.5%, prior +1.7%)

for the y/y +1.1% (expected +5.2%, prior +2.9%))
Service sector output -0.9% m/m (prior +0.5%)
Retail sales -0.8% m/m (prior +0.2%)

Cryptocurrency News

Bitcoin Spot ETF applications see amendments, holders await January batch approval

Bitcoin Spot ETF race has late entrants and updates from BlackRock, according to James Seyffart.
BTC Spot ETF approval anticipation has fueled a rally in both spot and futures markets.
Bitcoin price rally ushered $17.24 million in liquidations overnight.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs could see a batch approval in January. Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst shared details of an updated application by asset manager BlackRock.

Bitcoin price resumed its rally, triggering $8.94 million in short liquidations.

Chainlink supply on exchanges hits lowest point since 2020, with LINK staking v0.2 launch

Chainlink supply on exchanges declined to a level previously seen in February 2020.
LINK staking v0.2 went live on November 28, attracting 68% of staked tokens from v0.1.
LINK price rallied nearly 3% in the past week, climbing above $14.

Chainlink launched version 2 of its staking for the LINK holder community on November 28. Within 24 hours of the launch, several version 1 stakers migrated their holdings to the newer version, and LINK tokens left exchanges in large volumes.

Chainlink staking v0.2 draws LINK holders

Staking is a core initiative of Chainlink and it secures the blockchain network.LINK holders back the performance of Chainlink’s oracle services and earn rewards in exchange.Chainlink staking v0.1 had its beta release in December 2022.

Version 2, v0.2 has been launched with a pool size of 45 million LINK tokens. The network has expanded the scope of participants in its staking initiative and allows priority migration of staking from v0.1 to v0.2.

Within 24 hours of launch, 68% of v0.1 stakers migrated their holdings to v0.2 and existing Chainlink stakers have eight more days of guaranteed access to the new staking pool.

XRP price stands in readiness as SEC holds closed-door meeting with speculation that Ripple may be concerned

Ripple price continues to hold above the 50-day SMA at $0.5897, as community members anticipate a move soon.
XRP must break and close above the $0.6873 level to confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
The main narrative at play is the SEC’s meeting amid speculation that its theme is Ripple case settlement.

Ripple (XRP) price could be poised for a strong leap if speculation of the SEC meeting behind closed doors pans out to be true it is meeting with Ripple for a possible settlement of the securities violation case.

Kyber exploiter asks for complete control of all assets after nearly $50 million exploit

Kyber network exploiter drained the protocol’s liquidity pools of nearly $50 million on November 22.
The team behind Kyber managed to recover $4.67 million and communicated with the exploiter for the remainder of assets.
The exploiter has asked for complete control of the protocol and all company assets in a long list of demands.

Kyber Network, a cross-chain decentralized exchange and aggregator, was hit by an exploit that drained nearly $50 million in cryptocurrencies from its liquidity pools. The exploiter contacted the team, asking them to await a statement concerning a “potential treaty.”

In the November 30 message, the exploiter has reportedly asked for complete control of the protocol.

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Round up of today’s market news

ByBilals Tech