Round up of today’s market news

North American News

Nasdaq Paves the Path For US Stocks As Market Momentum on the Rise

• Major US stock indices close higher, with Nasdaq taking the lead, and consecutive weekly gains show positive market sentiment.

The major US stock indices are closing the day higher with the Nasdaq index leading the way. The gains today negated the losses yesterday. Recall, that the major indices are up 4 consecutive weeks. Those strings are on the line for the major indices.

For the day:

• DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average): 35416.97, up by 83.49 points, an increase of 0.24%.
• S&P 500 (5PX): 4554.90, up by 4.46 points, an increase of 0.10%.
• NASDAQ Composite (IXIC): 14281.75, up by 40.72 points, an increase of 0.28%.

The Russell 2000 is closing down -8.34 points or -0.46% at 1792.80.

Looking the S&P components:

• S5C0ND (Consumer Discretionary): 1343.91, up by 7.21 points, an increase of 0.54%.
• SPN (Energy): 642.88, up by 0.35 points, an increase of 0.05%.
• S5C0NS (Consumer Staples): 744.15, up by 2.98 points, an increase of 0.40%.
• S5HLTH (Healthcare): 1507.91, down by 7.65 points, a decrease of 0.50%.
• S5INDU (Industrials): 890.48, down by 2.18 points, a decrease of 0.24%.
• S5INFT (Information Technology): 3275.36, up by 6.25 points, an increase of 0.19%.
• S5MATR (Materials): 510.34, up by 1.02 points, an increase of 0.20%.
• S5REAS (Real Estate): 229.42, up by 1.18 points, an increase of 0.52%.
• S5TELS (Telecommunication Services): 239.85, up by 0.78 points, an increase of 0.33%.
• S5UTIL (Utilities): 317.78, up by 0.97 points, an increase of 0.31%.
• SPF (Financials): 584.96, down by 0.60 points, a decrease of 0.10%.

Analysis:

• The Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors showed notable growth, with increases of 0.54% and 0.52% respectively, indicating investor confidence in these sectors.
• The Information Technology and Telecommunication Services sectors also saw gains, reflecting a positive outlook for technology and communication industries.
• Energy sector growth was marginal at 0.05%, suggesting a cautious approach by investors in this area.
• Healthcare, Industrials, and Financials sectors experienced declines, with Healthcare leading the drop at 0.50%. This could indicate market concerns or profit-taking in these areas.

US sells 7-year notes at 4.399% vs 4.378% WI

• Results of the $39 billion sale of 7-year notes
• Prior was 4.908%
• Bid to cover vs 2.70 prior

US November Richmond Fed composite manufacturing index -5 vs 3 estimate

• Richmond Fed manufacturing index for November 2023

• Prior month 3
• Richmond Fed composite manufacturing index -5 vs. 3 estimate
• New orders -5 vs -4 last month
• Services index 1 versus -11 last month
• Shipments -8 versus +9 last month
• Employment 0 versus +7 last month
• Wages 25 versus +29 last month
• Availability of skills needed 6 versus -1 last month
• Prices paid 3.08 versus +3.02 last month
• Prices received 1.97 versus +2.07 last month.
• Backlog of orders -23 versus -17 last month
• Capacity utilization -5 versus -6 last month
• Vendor lead time -4 versus -12 last month
• Local business conditions -14 versus -9 last month
• Finish good inventories 23 versus 23 last month
• Raw material inventory is 18 versus 23 last month
• Equipment and software spending -4 versus -2 last month
• Services expenditures 0 versus -13 last month was equipment

Expectations components:

• shipments -1 versus a 12 last month.
• New orders 6 versus 6 last month.
• Employees 16 versus 15 last month.
• Wages 50 versus 46 last month.
• Availability of skills needed 11 versus 4 last month.
• Prices paid 2.91 versus 3.45 last month.
• Prices received 2.07 versus 2.08 last month.
• Backlog of orders -16 versus -13 last month.
• Capacity utilization 12 versus 8 last month.
• Vendor lead time -12 versus -13 last month.
• Capital expenditures 10 versus 1 last month.
• Finish good inventories 10 versus 7 last month..
• Raw material inventory is 12 versus 11 last month.
• Equipment and software spending 9 verse 6 last month.
• Services expenditures -7 versus -10 last month.

US November consumer confidence 102.0 vs 101.0 expected

• US consumer confidence from The Conference Board

• Prior was 102.6 (revised to 99.1)

Details:

• Present situation index 138.2 vs 143.1 prior (prior revised to 138.6)
• Expectations index 77.8 vs 75.6 prior
• 1 year Inflation 5.7% vs 5.9% prior
• Jobs hard-to-get 15.4 vs 13.1 prior

“Consumer confidence increased in November, following three consecutive months of decline,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “This improvement reflected a recovery in the Expectations Index, while the Present Situation Index was largely unchanged.November’s increase in consumer confidence wasconcentrated primarily among householders aged 55 and up; by contrast, confidence among householders aged 35-54 declined slightly. General improvements were seen across the spectrum of income groups surveyed in November. Nonetheless, write-in responses revealed consumers remain preoccupied with rising prices in general, followed by war/conflicts and higher interest rates.”

US Sept Case-Shiller 20-city home price index +0.7% m/m vs +0.8% expected

• US home price data

• Prior was +1.0% (revised to +0.8%)
• Prices +3.9% y/y vs +4.0% expected
• Prior was +2.2% y/y

Fed’s Williams: Encouraging to see decline in inflation pressure

• Comments from the NY Fed President

• Fed has signaled strong commitment to get inflation back to 2%
• Longer run inflation expectations have been very stable

Fed funds futures market now prices in 100 bps in easing next year

• Up from 87 bps earlier today

December 2024 Fed fund futures contracts now price in 100 bps in Fed cuts next year, up from 87 bps at the start of the day. The bulk of the move came after Fed Governor Chris Waller signalled that he was increasingly comfortable that rates at these levels are slowing the economy and that cuts could be on the table after ‘several’ more CPI readings showing a slowdown in inflation.

Feds Waller: Increasingly confident policy is well-positioned to slow economy

• Feds Waller speaking and has hope for a soft landing with declining inflation.
• Need some improvement in services inflation X housing for overall inflation to reach 2%.
• Increasingly confident policy is well-positioned to slow economy, get inflation back to 2%
• Cannot say for sure if Fed has done enough
• Data over the next couple months will hopefully tell if the Fed has done enough
• Recent loosening of financial conditions a reminder to be careful about relying on market tightening to do Fed’s job
• Encouraged by signs of moderating economic growth
• Inflation still too high, too early to say if slowing will be sustained
• Supply-side problems mostly behind us. Monetary policy will need to do the work from here.
• Premature to rely on productivity growth gains to guide stance of Fed policy.
• Consumer spending is calling, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activity has slowed.
• Labor market is cooling off, but still fairly tight and will watch closely.
• Need some improvement in services inflation ex housing for overall inflation to reach 2%
• Will closely monitor goods, services prices in coming weeks to see if inflation still on downward path.

Fed’s Bowman says she favors hiking rates if progress on inflation stalls

• Comments from Bowman

• Says she favors hiking if inflation progress stalls
• Inflation remains high, recent progress is uneven
• Baseline outlook is that the Fed will need to increase rates further to keep policy sufficiently restrictive
• Fed should keep in mind risks with prematurely declaring victory on inflation

Fed’s Goolsbee: Overall, we have made good progress on inflation

• Comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

“Food price inflation has been well-above levels comfortable for average Americans,” he said. “But overall we have made progress on inflation outside of the food sector; it’s been coming down, it’s not yet down to target but 2023 we’re on path to set the highest drop in the inflation rate in 71 years.”

Citi expects S&P 500 to new heights in 2024

• Citi predicts positive earnings growth for S&P 500, fewer stocks with significant declines

Citi expects the S&P 500 to make new highs in 2024:

• earnings growth is expected to broaden
• S&P 500 companies reporting positive year-over-year earnings growth is expected to increase
• fewer stocks likely to experience significant EPS declines compared to both 2023 and the 5-year average pre-pandemic
• “We continue to focus on the earnings resilience thesis despite lingering concerns about the economic outlook, which have been more acute of late given some softness in consumer-related reports and commentary”
• “the bottom falling out of S&P 500 EPS is a tail risk. A more resilient fundamental backdrop should support a higher equity floor even if sentiment and multiples sour”

Macroeconomic concerns are expected to persist:

• particularly around the consumer in the near term
• fiscal impulses in the longer term

US economy faces a mild recession in first half of 2024 , Deutsche Bank projects Fed cuts

• Deutsche Bank predicts 175bps of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts.

As part of Deutsche Bank’s 2024 World Outlook is their projection for the US economy and Federal Reserve response:

• The lag of policy will help trigger a mild US recession in H1 2024 with the upside risks being a continuation of the inflation/labour market progress made in 2023, with the downside being the non-linearity risk mentioned above. We think there will be 175bps of Fed cuts in 2024.

Deutsche Bank forsee two-quarters of negative economic growth in H1 of 2024:

• a “pretty sharp rise” in the unemployment rate to 4.6% by the middle of 2024
• and thus a more aggressive cutting profile starting in mid-year
• economic weakness will ease the pressure on inflation
• and thus an initial 50 basis point cut at the June 2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting & another 125 bps of cuts over the balance of the year

US-China tensions could take years to resolve, says Goldman Sachs CEO

• David Solomon says that there are real differences there between US and China
• In an uncertain period, geopolitical tensions are a headwind for growth
• US-China tensions could be more significant to the world than other geopolitical tensions

Canada is facing an extreme contraction in credit

• National Bank highlights a decline in

Much of the Canadian economy has been fuelled by an expansion in credit especially housing credit in the past 20 years. With rates now at high levels, the bill is due and the economy is broadly deleveraging.

National Bank yesterday highlighted data from Statistics Canada that show a significant slowdown in household credit growth, marking a 3% increase in the year to September, the slowest in over three decades.When adjusted for inflation, consumer credit actually fell by 1%.

National Bank highlights a grim outlook, noting that the tough recession in Canada in the 1990s was the last time it was this bad and that was due to 14% rates and unemployment at 12%.

There is simply no precedent for a contraction in household credit of the current magnitude, while the unemployment rate remains below 6%. Let’s hope that the next employment report on Friday doesn’t show too much of a deterioration in hiring, otherwise the credit cycle will continue to deteriorate.

Commodities

Silver bulls take a respite after failing to crack $25.00

• Silver price rallies more than 1.10% on Tuesday, courtesy of the Fed’s dovish comments.
• Buyers remain in charge but must reclaim $25.00 so they can test year-to-date (YTD) figures.
• If sellers keep the spot price below $25.00, that will sponsor a leg-down to $24.00.

Silver price refreshed three-month highs shy of the $25.00 figure and retreated to the $24.80s area after dovish remarks by a Fed official weakened the Greenback. At the time of writing, the white metal is trading at $24.88, gaining more than 1%.

Silver has extended its gains for the fourth straight session, though it failed to climb above the $25.00 figure, which would likely sponsor a leg up towards the July 19 high at $25.23. Once those two ceiling levels are conquered, buyers would need to decisively break the $26.00 mark, ahead of testing the May 5 high at $26.13.

Oil private survey of inventory shows headline draw smaller than was expected

This is from the privately surveyed oil stock data ahead of official government data tomorrow morning out of the US.

• Crude -0.817
• Cushing -0.465
• Gasoline -0.898
• Diesel +2.806
• SPR +300,000

Oil prices move higher as Kazakhstan cuts output

• US crude futures settle up 2.07% amid OPEC+ uncertainty, while market awaits US energy inventory data

The US crude futures settle the day at $76.41.That’s up $1.55 or 2.07%.

OPEC+ talks difficult, further delay in meeting possible – report

• Reuters, citing four OPEC sources

• OPEC+ talks are difficult and a further delay in the meeting is possible. A rollover of existing policy is also possible, according to four sources cited by Reuters.

OPEC+ Meeting: Deepening oil cuts on the horizon says an unnamed source

• OPEC+ is set to discuss potential for further oil production cuts at the upcoming meeting

Reuters had a few snippets on the upcoming Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, i.e. OPEC+ meeting this week (begins on November 30).

Citing an unnamed OPEC +source the article says that OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts:

• said he expected there to be an option for a “collective further reduction”, but didn’t provide further detail

This would fit with the view of a number of analysts expecting OPEC+ to extend or deepen supply cuts into next year, given the recent dip in the oil price.

OPEC+ meetings will begin at 1300 GMT on Thursday with ministers on an advisory panel called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee holding talks

• meeting was delayed from November 26, which was reportedly due to disagreement over output levels for African producers.

Later on Thursday, at 1400 GMT the full policy-making group of OPEC+ ministers will meet.

EU News

European equity close: Modest moves with Spain leading the way

• Closing changes in Europe

On the day:

• German DAX, +0.2%
• France CAC, -0.2%
• UK FTSE 100 flat
• Spain’s Ibex +0.7%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB, flat
• Euro STOXX -0.3%

Eurozone October M3 money supply -1.0% vs -0.9% y/y expected

• Latest data released by the ECB – 28 November 2023
• Prior -1.2%

France November consumer confidence 87 vs 84 expected

• Latest data released by INSEE – 28 November 2023
• Prior 84

Germany December GfK consumer sentiment -27.8 vs -27.9 expected

• Latest data released by GfK – 28 November 2023
• Prior -28.1; revised to -28.3

Volkswagen is to slash thousands of jobs – cost cutting citing low productivity

• Germany’s Volkswagen plans to cut thousands of jobs to reduce costs by €10bn over 3 years

Germany’s Volkswagen is to cut thousands of jobs.

Via various reports, in brief:

• Volkswagen responding to high costs and low productivity
• VW is understood to be drawing up plans for thousands of job cuts
• Outgoings are to be cut by around €10bn over three years
• The initial expectation was that cuts would be more weighted towards non-German jobs, but that is not expected to cut costs enough

UK shop price inflation slows to its lowest in over a year

• British Retail Consortium data

The British Retail Consortium data for annual shop price inflation dropped to 4.3% in the 12 months to November

• from +5.2% in October
• weakest since June 2022
• thee sixth month in a row that the pace of price growth weakened

BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson:

• is a risk that the fall in inflation could stall or go into reverse because of rising business rates – a property-based tax – plus new regulations and a jump in the minimum wage

BOE’s Haskel: Jobs market tightness means higher rates for longer

• Comments from the BOE MPC member
• Labour market tightness continues to impart inflation pressures
• This will need higher rates for longer to get inflation sustainably to target
• Current outlook does not suggest scope for moderation in rates any time soon
• This is why I have been voting for higher rates at recent meetings
• At current rate of change, it would take at least a year to fall back to average pre-pandemic tightness
• Rates will have to be held higher and longer than many seem to be expecting

BOE’s Ramsden: We are not making any commitments on where rates will be

• Remarks by BOE policymaker, Dave Ramsden
• Rates are to stay restrictive for an extended period of time
• The path of rates will be data dependent

ECB’s Nagel: Rate hikes are not necessarily over

• Remarks by ECB policymaker, Joachim Nagel
• Would have to hike again if inflation outlook worsened
• Premature to discuss about rate cuts, would prefer to err on the side of caution
• Inflation outlook is encouraging but core inflation dynamics continue to be strong

Bank of England’s Ramsden monetary policy to be restrictive for an extended period of time

• Speaking in Hong Kong

Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden:

• says monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time to get inflation back to 2% target
• UK inflation is more homegrown

Other News

PBoC Governor Pan says China’s economy continues to gain momentum, inflation bottoming out

• PBoC Governor Pan expresses confidence in China’s sustainable growth in 2024

PBoC Governor Pan says:

• China’s economy continues to gain momentum
• CPI is gradually bottoming out in china
• CPI November drop due to food prices, especially the fall in pork
• China should focus on forming new growth drivers
• High quality, sustainable growth in China more important
• Confident China will enjoy sustainable growth in 2024
• Will continue to keep monetary policy accommodative
• Will make it easier for foreign financial institutions to do business in China

China tightens export controls on rare earths – takes effect Friday

• China’s announcement to tighten export controls on rare earths raises concerns for global supply chain

China announced earlier in the month that it will tighten export controls on rare earths.Exporters will be required to report rare-earth types and the destination of exports.

New restrictions will run through until the end of October in 2025.

The new restrictions come into effect on Friday this week.

Japanese media notes that firms there are seeking new sources of graphite for EVs (graphite is essential for lithium-ion batteries) and gallium & germanium for semiconductor.

• China supplies 80% of Japan’s graphite currently
• Japan is seeking new supplies in Australia, Canada, Mozambique, Norway, and elsewhere

Beijing Stock Exchange shaken as index plummets 6%: major shareholders urged to hold

• Beijing’s Stock Exchange suffers a 6% drop as major shareholders are advised to refrain from selling

Beijing’s Stock Exchange 50% index has been sliced lower by 6%.

China’s Premier says willing to build closer supply chain linkages with all countries

• China’s Premier seeks stronger global supply chain connections

China’s Premier Li Qiang:

• says China is willing to build closer supply chain linkages with all countries
• opposes any form of decoupling and cutting off supply chains

Hong Kong hit by surging demand for cash: Highest Hibor rates in 23 Years

• If mortgage rate caps are raised, the already pressured property market will face another challenge.

Demand for cash in Hong Kong is surging, leading to an extremely tight liquidity environment.

The Hong Kong Association of Banks reports that:

• one-month and six-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) have hit their highest since 2000, i.e. highest in 23 years

Australia October Retail sales -0.2% m/m/ (expected +0.1%)

Australian retail sales for October 2023

• -0.2% m/m
• expected +0.1%, prior +0.9%
• for the y/y, +1.2%

Australian weekly consumer confidence 76.7 (prior 74.7)

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence weekly survey rose to 76.7 from 74.7 the previous week.

ANZ comments:

• ‘Time to buy a major household item’ subindex climbed to its highest since early February
• Buying sentiment was upbeat in the week to Black Friday

RBA Governor Bullock’s uncertainty on inflation and interest rates

• RBA Governor’s cautious approach, balancing economic growth and unemployment rate

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock is speaking as part of a panel on “Inflation, Financial Stability and Employment”.

Also on the panel are Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden and Bank of Spain´s governor / ECB monetary policy maker de Cos.

• high employment is helping people to pay expensive mortgages
• says Australia inflation path is similar to overseas
• says again she expects inflation to decline to just under 3% in 2025
• but notes uncertainty on inflation’s path
• monetary policy is restrictive
• monetary policy is restrictive
• rate hikes are dampening demand
• but demand being propped up by immigration, this has contributed to second round effects of cost rises
• sticky services inflation

Japan metal workers’ unions also eye record base pay hike next year – report

• Reuters reports, citing people with knowledge of the matter

After all the other talk of strong wage increases going into next year, Japan’s labour council for metal workers is also said to be considering demanding a record hike to the monthly base pay ahead of the spring wage negotiations.

They are believed to be demanding an increase of at least 3% amid talks with major firms such as car and electronics manufacturers. However, the sources cited say that this is “not yet a done deal” and that “we are still at odds with each other over the extent of the pay demand”. In any case, it still bolsters the narrative of strong wage pressures coming up for Japan going into March next year.

Japan business lobby to discuss negative impact of weak yen

• Japan’s top business lobby, Keidanren concerns over the weak yen is a shift in stance

Yomiuri (Japanese media) with the report that Japan’s top business lobby, Keidanren, will discuss the potential negative impact of the yen’s weakness on the economy at its meeting next month, on December 4.

Keidanren is comprised of major companies including big automakers and electronics firms. These have, in the past, favoured a weak yen and have called on the government to stave off sharpyen rises that make Japan’s exports less competitive overseas.

A shift by the lobby group to discuss the demerits of a weak yen highlights the new sensitivity in to the currency’s movement and its impact on the economy.

The concerns are linked to calls by the business sector for the Bank of Japan to end ultra-low interest rates that have been blamed for accelerating the yen’s decline.

Japan media: Groundbreaking for the end of BOJ negative interest rates has finally begun

• Bank of Japan major shift in monetary policy after 17 years on the way

• The end of the Bank of Japan ‘s negative interest rate policy is approaching.
• The Bank of Japan will determine whether to lift the ban as early as the first half of 2024 after monitoring trends in spring labor-management negotiations and consumer spending. If lifted, it would be the first interest rate hike in 17 years, marking a turning point in monetary policy, which had been focused solely on easing in an effort to overcome deflation.
• The determination of not only the Bank of Japan, but also the government and businesses to get out of the lukewarm waters of ultra-low interest rates and return to growth will be tested.
• Investigating the merits and demerits of negative interest rates“The groundbreaking for the end of negative interest rates has finally begun”…

Cryptocurrency News

XRP price coils up for a move north as Ripple director advocates for investment in infrastructure

• Ripple price has regained its bullish momentum, with the RSI hinting at a pullback after a two-day nosedive.
• XRP could climb 10% to test the supply zone extending from $0.6582 to $0.7186, confirming the uptrend above $0.6857.
• Invalidation of the bullish thesis will occur after the payment token’s market value breaks and closes below the 50-day SMA at $0.5852.

XRP is among the core digital assets in Ripple’s infrastructural solutions to businesses and institutions, according to Ripple managing director for the Middle East and South Asia, Navin Gupta.

LUNC trends among traders alongside Dollar pegged stablecoin USTC, recovery likely

• Terra Classic USD and Terra Luna Classic tokens are trending among market participants after overnight price gains. 
• USTC rallied to $0.078 local top after its 2022 collapse, garnering hope among traders. 
• LUNC price noted a pullback after yielding 26% weekly gains for holders. 

Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) and Terra Classic USD (USTC) both tokens were trending among traders after noting a surge in their price.Santiment analysts believe these tokens are gaining popularity after their collapse, likely to see a revival. 

LUNC and USTC prices might recover 

In 2022, sister tokens Terra USD (UST) and LUNA suffered an implosion when UST depegged. In the aftermath of the event, Terra LUNA was revived as Terra LUNA Classic (LUNC).Terra Classic USD remained de-pegged and the community has been brainstorming ways to establish the stablecoin’s $1 peg again.

Based on reports, two tokens, LUNC and USTC noted milestone price rises in the past week. LUNC price rallied 26% in the past week while Dollar-pegged stablecoin USTC attempted a recovery and climbed 200% in the same timeframe.

Milestone weekly gains in the two tokens have resulted in LUNC and USTC emerging as top trending cryptocurrencies on Santiment’s tracker. It’s important to note that the two tokens have experienced a pullback in their prices since then.

Dogecoin price might recover losses if volume picks up

• Dogecoin wallet addresses with a non-zero balance climbed to 5.11 million. 
• DOGE active addresses, and volume increased alongside price gains, supporting a bullish outlook. 
• DOGE price is likely to begin its recovery with the rising transaction volume and activity in Dogecoin.

Dogecoin has noted a massive rise in wallet addresses with a non-zero balance. This increase is typical of rising demand among market participants for DOGE. On-chain metrics paint a bullish outlook for Dogecoin.

LooksRare price recovery has wings and could double again as profit-hungry investors migrate from BLUR

• LOOKS price has risen nearly 12% in under 12 hours, showing resilience to selling pressure.
• This development comes as many altcoins have lost double-digit gains in the last two to three days. 
• On-chain metrics reveal investor interest and whale activity during the recent pullback, hinting at potential accumulation.

After Blur’s 300% rally, the next NFT token that has grabbed traders’ attention seems to be LooksRare’s LOOKS altcoin. LOOKS price has rallied 12% in the last nine hours and shows promising signs of continuing this uptrend. 

LooksRare price ready to shoot higher

LooksRare (LOOKS) price rallied nearly 100% between November 21 and 24. This uptrend retraced to $0.101, which was in line with the overall market sentiment. Unlike many altcoins, LOOKS has found support here and has bounced nearly 12% at the time of writing and shows no signs of stopping.

A sustained move higher would push it to the next weekly hurdle at $0.123. Successfully flipping this barrier into a support floor would allow LooksRare price to tag $0.202, which would append its gains from 100% to 200%. 

This move would bring it close to $0.218, which is the 50% retracement level of the 88% crash witnessed between February 2023 and June 2023. 

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