Round up of today’s market news

North American News

NASDAQ Hits 2023 High Close, Retraces as S&P Approaches All-Time Record, Setting the Stage for Market Dynamics

• NASDAQ index surpassed 2023 high close today, S&P approaches all-time high

The NASDAQ index achieved a record high today, reaching 14539.61, surpassing its previous closing peak of 14358.02 on July 19, 2023. On the same day, the intraday high reached 14446.55. However, the ultimate high for the NASDAQ occurred on November 22, 2021, at 16213.23. The current price is approximately 13.5% below this all-time high.

As for the S&P index, it hit a peak of 4568.43 today, coming within 20 points of its all-time closing high on July 31 at 4588.97. On July 27, 2023, the intraday high for the S&P index reached 4607.07. The S&P’s highest recorded price was 4818.62 on January 4, 2022. The current S&P price is 5.48% lower than this all-time high.

A snapshot of the major indices shows:

• Dow Industrial Average up 174.5 points or 0.50 at 35263.79
• S&P index up 21.91 points or 0.48% at 4559.89
• Nasdaq up 97 points or 0.69% at 14297.57

Shares of Nvidia are not participating after earnings yesterday, but is trading back near the closing level from yesterday after trading down as much at -$22.54 at session lows (price is down -$5.17 or -1.03% at 494.19

A snapshot of the US yield curve is showing:

• 2 year yield 4.921%, up 3.8 bps
• 5 year yield 4.48%, +3.0 bps
• 10 year yield 4.4217%, up 0.4 bps
• 30 year yield 4.553%, -2.6 bps

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate predicts 2.1% growth in Q4 2023

• Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate projects a 2.1% increase in Q4 2023, up from 2.0% on Nov 17
• Recent data suggests a positive outlook for private investment growth

The Atlanta Fed Q4 estimate for GDP comes in at 2.1%, up from 2.0% on November 17.The index has fluctuated between 1.2% and 2.3%.

In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.1 percent on November 22, up from 2.0 percent on November 17.After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.8 percent to -1.1 percent.

The next GDP now update is Thursday, November 30

Stocks, CME (futures) and SIFMA (cash interest rates) Thanksgiving holiday trading times

• Learn about the trading times for stocks and interest rates during Thanksgiving holidays.

The New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq Stock Market and US bond markets will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday 23 November 2023.

• NYSE and Nasdaq will close early, at 1 p.m.ET, on the Friday after Thanksgiving
• Bond markets will also close early, at 2 p.m.

All SIFMA holiday recommendations apply to the trading of U.S. dollar-denominated government securities, mortgage- and asset-backed securities, over-the-counter investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds, municipal bonds and secondary money market trading in bankers’ acceptances, commercial paper and Yankee and Euro certificates of deposit.

University of Michigan sentiment (final) for November 61.3 versus 60.6 estimate

• Preliminary estimate came in at 60.4

• Prior month 63.8
• preliminary estimate 60.4
• University of Michigan sentiment index final 61.3 versus 60.6 expected
• Current conditions 68.3 versus 65.7 last month.
• Expectations 56.8 versus 56.9 last month
• 1 year inflation 4.5% versus 4.4% preliminary.Last month the inflation next reading came in at 4.2%.The highest since April 1 it was at 4.7%
• 5 year inflation 3.2% versus 3.2% preliminary.Last month the inflation expectations reading came in at 3.0%.

Initial jobless for the current week 209K vs 226K estimate

• US initial and continuing claims for the current week

• Prior 231K revised to 233K
• Initial jobless claims 209K vs 226K estimate
• 4-week MA 220.0K vs 220.75K last month
• Continuing claims 1.840M vs 1.875M estimate
• Prior month 1.862M revised from 1.865M last.

US durable goods for October -5.4% vs -3.1% expected

• US durable goods orders for October

• Prior month 4.7% revised to 4.0%
• Durable goods -5.4% vs -3.1% est
• Ex transportation 0.0% vs 0.1% est. Prior month revised to 0.2% from 0.5%
• Ex defense -6.7% vs 5.8% last month revised to 5.0%
• Non defense capital good ex air -0.1% vs 0.1% estimate. Prior month revised to -0.2% vs 0.6% reported

Shipments details:

• Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October experienced a decrease, marking a decline in three of the last four months.
• The decrease amounted to $2.4 billion or 0.9 percent, bringing the total to $280.4 billion.
• This follows a 0.6 percent decrease in September.
• The decrease was primarily led by transportation equipment, which has been down four out of the last five months.
• Specifically, transportation equipment shipments fell by $2.1 billion or 2.3 percent to $88.4 billion.

Unfilled order details:

• Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased, marking an uptrend in ten of the last eleven months.
• The increase was $4.0 billion or 0.3 percent, raising the total to $1,356.9 billion.
• This uptrend follows a 1.3 percent increase in September.
• Transportation equipment orders, also up for ten of the last eleven months, were a leading factor in this increase.
• Specifically, unfilled orders in transportation equipment rose by $3.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $859.2 billion.

Inventory details:

• Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October increased, marking a rise for three consecutive months.
• The increase was $1.5 billion or 0.3 percent, bringing total inventories to $525.1 billion.
• This increase comes after a 0.1 percent rise in September.
• Transportation equipment inventories, also up for three consecutive months, were a major contributor to this increase.
• Specifically, transportation equipment inventories grew by $1.1 billion or 0.6 percent to $165.9 billion.

Nondefense Capital Goods (October):

• New orders decreased by $15.8 billion or 15.6 percent to $85.3 billion.
• Shipments decreased by $0.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $82.9 billion.
• Unfilled orders increased by $2.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $800.7 billion.
• Inventories increased by $0.7 billion or 0.3 percent to $227.3 billion.

Defense Capital Goods (October):

• New orders increased by $3.1 billion or 24.5 percent to $15.6 billion.
• Shipments increased by $0.3 billion or 1.9 percent to $13.9 billion.
• Unfilled orders increased by $1.8 billion or 0.8 percent to $212.3 billion.
• Inventories slightly decreased by less than $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $24.2 billion.

US treasury coupon auctions announced for next week

Here’s a summary of the U.S. Treasury’s upcoming coupon note and bill auctions for next week

• Scheduled Sales of Notes:
  • Sale of $54 billion of 2-year notes on November 27th.
  • Sale of $55 billion of 5-year notes on November 27th.
  • Sale of $39 billion of 7-year notes on November 28th.
  • All these notes are set to settle on November 30th.
• Status of Weekly Bills:
  • 13-week bills: Unchanged at $75 billion, to be sold on November 27th.
  • 26-week bills: Unchanged at $68 billion, to be sold on November 27th.
  • 52-week bills: Unchanged at $44 billion, to be sold on November 28th.
  • All these bills will settle on November 30th.

More attention has been made toward the coupon note auctions given the expected increase going forward to fund US deficits.

OpenAI says Sam Altman is to return as CEO

• The company announces that they have reached an agreement in principle, with the details to be announced later

A tweet by OpenAI:

“We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D’Angelo.We are collaborating to figure out the details. Thank you so much for your patience through this.”

Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos is expected to offload more of his shares

• Estimates range from 8 to 10 million shares worth over $1 billion

Amazon (AMZN) founder Jeff Bezos is expected to offload more of his shares in the firm.

• Bezos sold around US$240 million last week
• and may sell as many as 8 million to 10 million shares, amounting to more than $1 billion

Info comes via CNBC, citing an unnamed source.

Goldman Sachs: US fiscal discipline unlikely, steepening yield curve expected

• Goldman Sachs trading desk expects a normalized and lower front-end rate, but little relief in the back end.

Remarks from Goldman Sachs’ Ashok Varadhan, co-head of global banking and markets expects the US Treasuries curve to steepen in the long term:

• “Fiscal spending has not abated. It’s strange for us to be spending this much” when employment is high,
• “It doesn’t feel like we’re going to see fiscal discipline any time soon. …It’s hard to see long-term rates coming down meaningfully,”
• “And so our base case on the trading desk is we expect a more normalized yield curve, a steeper yield curve, but really more with normalized and lower rates in the front end and not a lot of relief in the back end.”

Info via Reuters.

BOC Macklem: Canda interest rates may be high enough

• Bank of Canada’s Macklem is speaking
• Canada interest rates may now be restrictive enough.
• Excess demand that made it too easy to raise prices is now gone.
• Reiterates that if high inflation persists, the Bank of Canada is prepared to raise its policy rate further.
• The Canadian economy is approaching balance, we expect it to remain weak for the next few quarters, which means more downward pressure on inflation.
• Inflation in Canada is still too high and progress cutting it is slower than we had hoped.
• Expectations for near-term inflation have been slow to come down and this is a concern.
• Long-term inflation and to have remained well-anchored.
• Latest CPI number was certainly encouraging.
• Good news for Canadian citizens.
• Right now is not time to be thinking about cutting rates.
• We do not have to wait until inflation is back to 2% before we cut interest rates, but we do need to wait until it’s clear that we are on that path to hitting 2%.
• When it comes to monetary policy, we will be taking it one meeting at a time
• If inflation keeps coming down, if we see underlying inflationary pressures ease, we probably won’t have to raise rates further.

Commodities

Silver dip’s amid rising US yields, the 200-DMA eyed

• Silver price loses some territory for the second time in the week, down more than 0.50%.
• High US Treasury bond yields and silver’s failure to climb above $24.00 would pave the way for a pullback.
• If silver retraces past the 200-DMA, sellers target $22.70.

Silver price reversed its course on Wednesday, registering decent losses of more than 0.40% as US Treasury bond yields advance due to American households’ upward reviewed inflation expectations for one year. Consequently, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield rose, a headwind for the grey metal, which trades at $23.57 after reaching a high of $23.94.

From a daily chart standpoint, the white metal is neutral to upward biased, though, for the last three days, buyers had failed to crack the two-month high reached on November 17 at $24.14. Once that level is surrendered, the next stop would be the August 30 high at $25.00, followed by the July 19 at $25.23.

Weekly EIA inventories crude oil 8.701M versus +1.160 million estimate

• The private API weekly data reported a larger than expected 9.1 million barrel build late yesterday

• Prior week +3.592 million
• Crude oil 8.701M versus +1.160 million estimate.
• Gasoline 0.749Mversus -0.150 million estimate. Prior week -1.540 million
• Distillates -1.018M versus -0.761 million. Prior week -1.422 million.
• Cushing +0.858M versus +1.925M last week
• refinery utilization +0.9% versus 0.9% expected and 0.9% prior

OPEC+ meeting postponed to November 30

• Trouble within with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ nations

OPEC + meeting scheduled for NOvember 26 has been deleyed to November 30.

Saudi officials have expressed dissatisfaction with the oil production levels of other member countries. The kingdom, which has voluntarily reduced its oil output by an additional 1 million barrels per day since July, is currently engaged in challenging negotiations with other OPEC+ members about their production rates. The length of the potential delay for the meeting is still unclear, as no final decision has been made yet. This information comes from delegates involved in the talks, who have requested anonymity due to the private nature of the discussions.

The price of crude oil is trading at $74.46 which is down -$-3.25 on the day. Technically, the price this week stayed mostly below the 200 day MA at $78.09. The lows last week reached just below a lower target at $72.68. That area is the next major target on the downside.

Goldman Sachs predicts a 35% probability of further OPEC+ ‘insurance’ output cuts

• Goldman Sachs highlight higher-than-expected inventories

Goldman Sachs on the OPEC+ meeting coming up on November 26:

• its statistical model of OPEC decisions suggests that deeper output cuts should not be ruled out
• sees a 35% probability of a deeper cut
• says OPEC+ would see such further cuts as “insurance” against the price of Brent crude falling below their $80/bbl estimate of the OPEC put in Q1

GS cite:

• the fall in speculative positioning and in timespreads
• higher-than-expected inventories

Oil price forecast: Brent crude expected to reach $80/bbl on a 3 month time horizon

• 2024 may bring a touch more weakness as market balances loosen.

Via Bloomberg overnight comes analysis from Citi on oil:

• price should find support in the year-end
• tentatively forecast Brent crude at $80/bbl (3-month horizon)
• 2024 should bring some weakness as balances loosen somewhat

Northvolts breakthrough battery with no critical minerals could minimise reliance on China

• A  “breakthrough” sodium-ion battery

Swedish firm Northvolt says it has developed a new energy storage technology with no critical minerals including lithium which could minimise reliance on China:

• a “breakthrough” sodium-ion battery
• a lower cost, more sustainable battery designed to store electricity which does not use lithium, nickel, graphite and cobalt.
• said its new battery, which has an energy density of more than 160 watt-hours per kilogram, has been designed for electricity storage plants but could in future be used in electric vehicles, such as two wheeled scooters.
• “Using sodium-ion technology is not new but we think this is the first product ever completely free from critical raw materials. It is a fundamental breakthrough”

EU News

European indices close mostly higher. UK’s FTSE 100 is marginally lower

• European traders exiting for the day

As European traders head for the exits, the major European indices have closed mostly higher. The exception is the UK’s FTSE 100 as the market digests the budget from the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The Italy’s stock market was also unchanged.

• German DAX, +0.36%
• Frances +0.43%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -0.17%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.61%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.01%

Eurozone consumer confidence flash for November -17.9 versus -17.6 expected

• Eurozone consumer confidence flash estimate for November 2023

• Prior month -17.9
• Consumer confidence flash for November -17.9 versus -17.6 estimate

UK CBI manufacturing orders fall to the lowest since 2021

• CBI manufacturing orders for November book balance -35 vs -26 prior

• Order book balance -35 vs -26 prior
• Output balance for the past three months -17 vs -6
• Output price expectations +11 vs +7 prior

Belgian November consumer sentiment -4 vs -5 prior

• Belgian November consumer sentiment data

• Prior -5
• Economic sentiment -12 vs -17
• Ability to save +10 vs +13

A summary of the UK budget from UK Chancellor Hunt

• UK Chancellor Hunt announced plans to reduce debt and cut taxes, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) assessing that these measures will lower inflation and boost GDP.
• The Chancellor intends to reduce business taxes.
• Welfare benefits will be increased by 6.7%, aligning with expectations.
• There will be increased support for housing costs through the local housing allowance.
• UK Chancellor Hunt has announced a freeze on all alcohol duties until August 1st, 2024
• TO increase pension allowance by the full triple lock commitment of 8.5%
• The headline debt is expected at 94% of GDP by the end of the forecast horizon (FY 27/28)
• To create new simplified R&D tax relief
• Will sell NatWest shares back to retail investors
• UK to extend 75% business rated discount for retail, hospital and leisure.
• To make full expensing tax breaks for business will be made permanent
• Reduces the main 12% rate of employee national insurance to 10% (to same $450 per average worker.)
• The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) confirms that the target of Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) below 3% in the 2028/29 reference period has been achieved.
• The fiscal headroom is noted at GBP 13 billion, which is significantly lower than the post-2010 average of GBP 29.7 billion typically available to Chancellors.
• The medium-term fiscal outlook has seen a considerable improvement compared to the situation in March 2023.
• The fiscal headroom of GBP 13 billion is largely attributed to the rolling nature of the budget rule, which provides an additional year.
• The tax burden is projected to increase annually, reaching a post-war high of 37.7% by the fiscal year 2028-29.

UK OBR Forecasts for CPI (Consumer Price Index) Year-over-Year:

• 2023: Expected at 7.4%, with a March 2023 estimate of 6.1%.
• 2024: Forecast at 2.8%, compared to an expected 3.0% and a March 2023 estimate of 0.9%.
• 2025: Projected at 2.0%, aligning with an expected 2.0% and a March 2023 figure of 0.1%.
• 2026: Expected at 2.0%, with a March 2023 estimate of 0.5%.
• 2027: Anticipated at 2.1%, with a March 2023 estimate of 1.6%

UK OBR Forecasts for GDP Growth:

• 2023: Projected at 0.6%, compared to an expected 0.4% and a March 2023 forecast of -0.2%.
• 2024: Estimated at 0.7%, against an expectation of 0.4% and a March 2023 forecast of 1.8%.
• 2025: Forecast at 1.4%, closely aligning with an expected 1.3% and a March 2023 prediction of 2.5%.
• 2026: Anticipated at 1.9%, compared to an expected 1.7% and a March 2023 forecast of 2.1%.
• 2027: Projected at 2.0%, against an expectation of 1.6% and a March 2023 estimate of 1.9%.
• 2028: Forecast at 1.7%

ECB’s Nagel and the endgame: Near terminal rate, stable for now

• ECB’s Nagel expects ECB rates to remain stable, near terminal rate

• View on Terminal Rate:
  • Nagel believes the ECB is close to a level considered as the terminal rate.
  • Uncertain if the ECB will implement further rate increases.
• Expectation for ECB Rates:
  • He anticipates that the ECB rates will remain stable for some time.
  • There is no concern that the ECB is moving toward a hard landing
• Comments on Inflation:
  • Describes inflation as a “greedy beast.”
  • Acknowledges the existence of some risk factors that could potentially trigger inflation.
  • We will get to our 2% inflation target in the end.

ECBs Elderson laying the case for “green”

• Preference for EU Supranational Bonds:
  • Elderson emphasizes that when there’s no clear monetary policy reason to prefer domestic sovereign bonds, the ECB should think about increasing the share of EU supranational bonds.
• Reconsidering Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) for Banks:
  • Elderson suggests that if there’s a future monetary policy need to reconsider TLTROs for banks, there are strong reasons to seriously think about integrating environmental sustainability aspects into these operations (“greening” them).

Bank of England to deliver 50 bps interest rate cuts in Q4 2024: JP Morgan

• JP Morgan had earlier expected a BoE pause throughout the year.

JP Morgan now sees Bank of England delivering 50 bps of interest rate cuts in Q4 2024

• compared to a pause throughout 2024 they had forecast earlier

Other News

China reportedly set to appoint veteran banker, Zhu Hexin, as new forex regulator chief

• Zhu is also the chief of state-run financial conglomerate, CITIC Group

According to the report by Reuters, Zhu’s appointment to head the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) could come as soon as next week. It is one where he would also be named as a PBOC deputy governor to oversee foreign exchange regulatory matters, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The great high-level reshuffle continues in China as Xi is looking to fresh faces to usher in the recovery phase in the economy and wanting to stem capital outflows in the yuan.

Chinese Government advisers recommend economic growth target of 5% for 2024

• The proposals will be made at the Communist Party’s annual Central Economic Work Conference.

Chinese government adviserswill recommend economic growth targets for next year rangingfrom 4.5% to 5.5% to an annual policymakers’ meeting

• five of the seven advisers who spoke with Reuters said they favoured a target of around 5%, matching this year’s goal
• One adviser will propose a 4.5% target, while the other suggested a 5.0-5.5% range
• would require Beijing to step up fiscal stimulus, the advisers said
• monetary stimulus is expected to play a more limited role asthe central bank remains concerned a widening interest rate differential with the West may further weaken the yuan and encourage capital outflows

Goldman Sachs say Chinese stocks could post their first index gains in four years in 2024

• Goldman Sachs forecasts MSCI China and CSI 300 to increase by 12% and 15%, respectively.

CNBC reporting on Goldman Sachs China stock marekt and economy views.

Main points:

• Goldman Sachs expects the MSCI China and CSI 300 to rise 12% and 15%, respectively, supported by estimated earnings growth of around 10% and “moderate” valuation gains.
• Goldman Sachs prefers A shares over H shares due to their lower sensitivity to geopolitical and liquidity factors.
• In its 2024 China equity outlook, Goldman Sachs upgraded the food and beverage sector to overweight from market weight and the technology hardware sector to overweight from underweight.
• “We believe policy has been implemented across all key policy cohorts when it comes to monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, housing market easing and, importantly, deregulation in the tightening of the industry in recent years “
• China’s central government has signaled that it has shifted to a more supportive policy stance – even as it has backed away from aggressive support
• Goldman Sachs noted that both investment and hedge fund mandates worldwide have had low allocations to Chinese stocks for several years.
• “Consensus earnings estimates look bullish for 2024 and 2025, but embedded within the suppressed valuations is an arguably pessimistic policy and/or geopolitical outlook, suggesting a right-side return distribution as these concerns fade”

McDonald’s raises its stake in its China business, even as other multinationals pull back

• McDonald’s raises its stake in its China business to 48%, acquiring firm Carlyle’s holding

McDonald’s will increases its stake in its China business to 48%

to acquire investment firm Carlyle’s 28% holding in the burger chain’s China business, which also includes its stores in Hong Kong and Macau, will see McDonald’s stake rise to 48%.

a group led by state-backed conglomerate CITIC has controlling ownership, a 52% stake

“We believe there is no better time to simplify our structure, given the tremendous opportunity to capture increased demand and further benefit from our fastest growing market’s long-term potential,” McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said in a statement on Monday.

Info comes via Reuters, link for more.

RBA Governor Bullock: Inflation is broad-based, trimmed mean remains too high

• Comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock
• Inflation challenge is increasingly driven by homegrown demand
• ‘More substantial’ mon pol tightening is right response to demand-driven inflation
• Supply-chain inflation is easing and has a bit further to run
• Service costs rising strongly as demand outstrips supply
• RBA liaison with firms indicates domestic cost pressures are proving persistent
• Will take time to get inflation back to 2-3% target
• Board seeking to cool demand while keeping employment growing

Australian Leading Index stumbles further, points to more weak growth ahead

• Australia’s economy expected to stay in a low growth rut

The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, dipped to -0.40% in October from -0.38% in September.

Says WPAC:

• Economy set to remain stuck in ‘low growth rut’ well into next year.
• Range of headwinds continues despite improvement since start of the year.
• Components show cooling labour market, unsettled financial markets and shaky confidence are now the main weak spots.

Japan PM Kishida assures that the BOJ policy does not aim to manipulate exchange rates

• Kishida speaking in parliament.

Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is not aimed at guiding foreign exchange rates in a certain way.

• Kishida was speaking to members of parliament.

Added that his government expects the BOJ to take appropriate monetary policy and to share its views with the government.

Poll – Economists predict Bank of Japan will end negative rates policy in 2024

• Anticipated shift in monetary policy

Info via a Reuters poll shows that over 80% of surveyed economists expect the Bank of Japan will end its negative rates policy in 2024.

• none expect a change at the December BOJ meeting (on the 18th and 19th)
• 22 of 26 said the BOJ would end the policy by the end of next year
  • 12 opted for the April 25-26 meeting, 2 picked July, 2 went for June and 1 opted for October
• remaining 4 chose “2025 or later”

Bank of Japan trims the amounts of JGBs its buying

The BOJ has cut the purchase amount of

• 5 – 10 year JGBs to 525bn yen from 575 bn previously
• 25+ year JGBs to 75bn JPY from 100bn previously

Japan’s government slashed its view on the economy, first such downgrade in 10 months

• Japan recovery stalls, signaling a pause in growth.

Japan’s Cabinet Office took a knife to its view on the economy for November in its first such downgrade in 10 months

• says weak demand weighed oncapital spending and consumer expenditure
• saying the pace of recovery was “pausing”
• “The economy is recovering moderately, although some areas showed stalemate recently,”
• “While business conditions and firms’ earnings continue to improve, the strength of the corporate sector is not necessarily translating into wages and investment,”
• “Domestic demand such as corporate investment and consumer spending lack strength,”
• expects the economy to continue to recover moderately but there are risks such as those from global monetary tightening and the Chinese economy. Close attention needs to be paid to rising prices, theMiddle East situation as well as financial market fluctuations

Singapore’s Q3 GDP beats earlier expectations: +1.4% q/q

• Singapore expects improvement in manufacturing, trade-related sectors

Singapore Q3 GDP +1.1% y/y vs Reuters poll +0.7%

• Singapore Q3 GDP +1.4% q/q at seasonally adjusted rate

Singapore Ministryof Trade and Industry (MTI) forecasts 2023 GDP growth of around +1.0%

• forecasts 2024 GDPgrowth of +1.0% to +3.0%
• says Singapore’smanufacturing and trade-related sectors likely to remain weak for rest of 2023
• says in 2024, growth prospects of manufacturing and trade-related sectors inSingapore expected to improve
• says in 2024,growth in wholesale trade sector projected to strengthen
• says in 2024,consumer-facing sectors like retail trade and food & beverageservices projected to continue to expand

Singapore central bank reaffirms that its current monetary policy settings are appropriate

• Monetary Authority of Singapore

• The Monetary Authority of Singapore reaffirms that its current monetary policy settings are appropriate
• says expects Singapore domestic interest rates to take reference from global interest rate movements

Cryptocurrency News

Bitcoin loses key support, $30,000 retest likely as markets reel from landmark DoJ Binance debacle

• Bitcoin price was rejected from the midline of the supply barrier at $36,788.
• BTC could extend a leg lower to test the $30,000 psychological level if the 25-day EMA gives way at $35,525.
• The bearish thesis will be invalidated once the king of cryptocurrency breaks and closes above the $37,972 resistance level.

Bitcoin is pulling back up following a slump, likely provoked by the Binance debacle with the US Department of Justice (DoJ). However, there remains to be some weakness as the markets continue to reel from the landmark outcome in the case, where Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao yielded.

According to some observers, however, Binance’s downfall has boosted the spot-ETF approval odds. Meanwhile, chatter around spot BTC ETF continues, with revelations that Grayscale is still engaging with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

SEC’s closed-door meeting on November 30 could mark the end of a 3-year-long lawsuit with Ripple

• Ripple and the SEC are said to be close to a settlement as the regulator is scheduled to hold a closed-door meeting on November 30.
• Both parties have until February 2024 to come up with a remedy for the current situation, fueling the speculation.
• XRP price decline has extended to nearly 20% in two weeks, reducing the chances of a recovery.

XRP price fall is increasing the losses experienced by Ripple investors, and further decline could potentially wipe out the profits attained recently. This is the condition of the market despite the potential of Ripple and SEC settling the latter’s lawsuit this month and picking up the heat.

Ripple and SEC to settle soon

Ripple and the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) are expected to conclude the ongoing three-year-long lawsuit that began in December 2020. This would be achieved by both parties settling the case since not only has the SEC partially lost the first ruling from the court, but the next one will be held in 2024. 

Until then, Ripple has a chance to dig up enough evidence to complete their win in the court trial. The closed-door meeting, called the Sunshine Act Meetings, will be held on November 30 next week.

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