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North American News

NASDAQ Index’s Remarkable 8-Day Rally

  • S&P and Dow industrial average up 7 consecutive days

The day began with a dip in the Dow Industrial Average and the S&P Index, as both started in the red. At their lowest points during the session, the S&P had declined by -10.58 points, while the Dow Industrial Average was down by -69.15 points. This initial decline posed a threat to the impressive 7-day winning streak that both indices had been enjoying. However, as the trading day came to a close, things took an unexpected turn, with the losses being completely erased, and both indices ended the day in positive territory, extending their winning streak to 7 consecutive days. Notably, this string of gains in the S&P is the longest since 2021.

On the other hand, the NASDAQ Index took a different route, as it opened on a positive note. Although it briefly dipped into negative territory, recording a loss of -2.22 points at its lowest point of the session, the index managed to maintain an overall upward trajectory and now boasts an impressive 8-day winning streak.

The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow industrial average rose 56.94 points or 0.17% at 34152.81
  • S&P index rose 12.38 points or 0.28% at 4378.37
  • NASDAQ index rose 121.07 points or 0.90% at 13639.85

Today in the U.S. debt market, yields have seen a decline. The U.S. Treasury successfully conducted an auction of $48 billion worth of 3-year notes, with slightly stronger demand than usual. In the coming two trading days, the Treasury is gearing up to auction off 10 and 30-year bonds.

  • 2-year yield 4.911%, -3.3 basis points
  • 5-year yield 4.534% -7.4 basis points
  • 10-year yield 4.572% -8.9 basis points
  • 30-year yield 4.736% -9.4 basis points

In after-hours earnings:

Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN):

  • Q3 2023 Adj. EPS: -1.19 (Beat expectations of -1.32)
  • Q3 2023 Revenue: $1.34 billion (Beat expectations of $1.33 billion)

Viatris Inc (VTRS):

  • Q3 2023 Revenue: $3.93 billion (Missed expectations of $4.01 billion)
  • Q3 2023 Adj. EBITDA: $1.36 billion (Beat expectations of $1.3 billion)

Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD):

  • Q3 2023 EPS: $2.29 (Beat expectations of $1.92)
  • Q3 2023 Revenue: $7.05 billion (Beat expectations of $6.8 billion)
  • FY EPS view: $6.65-$6.85 (Beat expectations of $6.62; previously $6.45)
  • FY Revenue view: $26.7-$26.9 billion (Missed expectations of $26.87 billion; previously $26.3-$26.7 billion)

Akamai Technologies Inc (AKAM):

  • Q3 2023 Adj. EPS: $1.63 (Beat expectations of $1.50)
  • Q3 2023 Revenue: $965.5 million (Beat expectations of $944.1 million)

Lucid Group Inc (LCID):

  • Q3 2023 EPS: -$0.28 (Beat expectations of -$0.35)
  • Q3 2023 Revenue: $138 million (Missed expectations of $180 million)

eBay Inc (EBAY):

  • Q3 2023 EPS: Not provided (Expectations were $1.00)
  • Q3 2023 Revenue: $2.5 billion (Met expectations of $2.5 billion)

US treasury auctions offer $48 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.701%

  • WI level at the time of the auction 4.702%
  • High Yield: 4.701%. Previous rate was 4.74%, with a six-auction average of 4.372%.
  • Tail: -0.1 basis points. Previous 1.7 basis points (bps), with a six-auction average of -0.3 bps.
  • Bid-to-Cover: 2.67X. Previous 2.56X, with a six-auction average of 2.79X.
  • Directs (a measure of domestic demand): 19.13%. Previous 21.9%, with a six-auction average of 19.2%.
  • Indirects (a measure of international demand): 64.6%. Previous 56.0%, with a six-auction average of 65.3%.
  • Dealers (they take the rest): 16.26%. Previous 22.1%, with a six-auction average of 15.5%.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 GDP estiamte +2.1% vs 1.2% prior

  • The latest from the GDP tracker

We’re still three months away from the first reading on Q4 GDP so I wouldn’t get too excited as the latest tracker has moved up to 2.1% from 1.2%.

After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the Institute for SupplyManagement, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Bureau ofEconomic Analysis, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.5 percent and -2.8 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and -1.0 percent, while the nowcast of thecontribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter realGDP growth decreased from 0.22 percentage points to 0.04 percentagepoints.

US Sept consumer credit outstanding +9.06B vs +10B expected

  • US consumer credit data
  • Prior was -15.63B (revised to -15.79B)

October US Manheim used vehicle index -2.3% m/m

  • Monthly used vehicle price index from Manheim
  • Prices down 2.3% m/m seasonally adjusted
  • Prices down 3.1% m/m not-seasonally adjusted
  • Prices down 4.0% y/y

“October revealed some not-so-spooky price moves, namely a reversal of the gains that were seen during the prior two months,” said Chris Frey,senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive.“This confirms the caution that was mentioned last month The UAW strike , avoiding one action that could have led to higher wholesale prices. October’s price decline is eerily similar to last October’s 2.2% drop, and this was not unexpected as the market remains balanced. Wholesale vehicle values typically experience some modest increases during the holiday season, and with two months remaining, we could see some upward price movements.”

US Sept trade balance -61.5B vs -59.9B expected

  • US September 2023 trade balance
  • Prior was -58.3B
  • Goods trade balance -86.84B vs -85.78B prelim

BlackRock Investment Institute boss warns more downward adjustment to come in equities

Jean Boivin is a former Bank of Canada official who now heads the BlackRock Investment Institute.Spoke in an interview last week, reported on Monday across the wires ICYMI:

  • year-end rally in stocks could prove short-lived
  • equities are not currently fully reflecting the outlook for rates remaining higher for longer
  • “The question we ask is if the surge in rates has fed through to equities, and our answer is not yet,”
  • “We think there’s more downward adjustment to come, but we expect to see a better environment in 2024 once the adjustment is complete,”
  • “If it turns out that we’re wrong and there’s a material pick up in economic growth or a sustained pullback in rates, that would prompt us to become more optimistic on stocks”

JPMorgan’s Kolanovic warned that US equities rally will not persist

A note on Monday from JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic

  • “We believe that equities will soon revert back to an unattractive risk-reward”

He cited:

  • Fed set to remain higher for longer
  • valuations are rich
  • earnings expectations remain too optimistic
  • pricing power is waning
  • profit margins are at risk
  • slowdown in topline growth is set to continue

On the current market “bad news is good news” narrative:

  • “zone may be quite narrow, as it is difficult to distinguish between a healthy slowdown and the initial stages of recession without the benefit of hindsight,”
  • “With the market now pricing in a full ease by mid-2024, valuations rich and the increase in supply, we turn tactically short on 7Y USTs, after taking profit on longs in 5Y USTs, and look for a steeper curve at the long end.”

Fed’s Logan: All of us have been surprised by resilience of US economy

  • Comments from the Fed’s Logan
  • Inflation remains too high
  • The core question is if financial conditions today are sufficiently restrictive
  • Labor market is still too tight
  • Still looks like trending towards 3% inflation
  • We’ll need to see tight financial conditions to bring inflation to 2%
  • My expectation is we’ll see growth slow but we’ve been wrong before
  • Key question on long-term rates is what was driving it
  • If it was on the back of strong economic growth, FOMC would have to deliver on expectations
  • If rise in long end driving by term premium, it could do some of the Fed’s work
  • Will watch to see if retracement of long-rates continues

Fed’s Bowman: I continue to expect we will need to raise Fed funds further

  • Comments from Bowman
  • Fed funds rate currently appears restrictive, financial conditions have tightened since Sept
  • Some tightening is due to long end, which can be volatile
  • Don’t yet know effects of tightened financial conditions on economic activity
  • I remain willing to support raising policy rate at future meeting
  • Inflation remains high
  • Labor market supply and demand may be coming into better balance

Fed’s Waller: The labor market is getting close to average from before the pandemic

  • Comments from Waller
  • Labor market is cooling and getting close to average from before the pandemic; it’s ‘clearly calming down’
  • Labor supply also appears to be normalizing back to pre-pandemic levels
  • ‘Everything was booming’ in Q3 GDP, Fed is watching that closely
  • In central banking terms, move up in 10-year yields was an ‘earthquake’
  • Policymakers are mulling what drove long-term yields higher
  • What people have in mind now is for prices to return to earlier levels, and that is not going to happen

Fed’s Goolsbee: So far we are on a good path on inflation, but not there yet

  • Feds Goolsbee on CNBC
  • If coming from term premia, we have to take that into account.
  • You cannot answer what number on long-term yield equals enough tightening.
  • We are also getting positive supply-side developments in the economy.
  • The economy is weakening.
  • Job market is getting into better balance.
  • So far, the slowdown is what you would want, toward a more balanced growth and sustainable level.
  • Inflation has come down a lot.
  • We might equal the fastest drop in inflation in the last century.
  • As long as we are making progress on inflation, the topic is then only how long we keep rates at this level.
  • Inflation is more important part of the mandate right now.
  • I don’t like precommitting what rates will be at the next meeting.
  • Still a lot of data to parse before then.
  • My conditions for Fed being done with rates are that we are clearly back on path to get inflation back to 2%
  • So far we are on a good path on inflation, but not done yet
  • Priority for changing rates stances inflation rate
  • Financial conditions clearly matter, but market doesn’t get to tell the Fed what to do.
  • There is possibility of the “golden path” that allows us to get inflation down without recession

Fed’s Kashkari: Have to let inflation and labor data guide us

  • Fed’s Kashkari: Have to let inflation and labor data guide us

Fed may have to do more to get US inflation back to 2% – Kashkari

“When activity continues to run this hot, that makes me question if policy is as tight as we assume it currently is,” Kashkari said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “So if you saw inflation tick back up and you saw continued very strong economic activity in the real side of the economy that would tell me we might need to do more.”

He added he does not currently see a lot of evidence the economy is weakening.

Fed’s Kashkari says he’s not convinced FOMC rate hikes are over

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari in the Wall Street Journal (gated)

  • “Undertightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time,”
  • has concerns about inflation “ticking up again. That’s what I’m worried about.”
  • some prices and wages data indicate that inflation could be “settling somewhere north of 2%, and that would be very concerning to me.”
  • said that he needed more information to come to a firm decision on interest-rate steps moving forward. “I am not ready to say we are in a good place,”

More now, this time speaking with Fox:

  • Economy has proved to be very resilient, inflation has come down
  • Making progress on inflation, job market is strong
  • Fed has more work to do to get inflation under control
  • American consumers continue to spend
  • Need to finish the job on lowering inflation
  • ‘Nervous’ over declaring premature victory over inflation
  • US economy is so far ahead of foreign economies

Canada September trade balance 2.04B vs 1.00B estimate

  • Canada trade balance details for September 2023
  • Prior month 0.72B revised to 0.95B
  • Trade balance for September 2.04B vs x.xB estimate
  • Exports C$ 67.03B versus 65.28B last month (revised from 64.56B)
  • Imports C$ 64.99B versus 64.33B last month (revised from 63.84B)
  • Exports +2.7%.
  • Imports +1.0%

Details

  • Exports increase for the third consecutive month. Canadian exports observed in August and September have almost offset the decline in July, which was partly driven by port disruptions in British Columbia. Despite the overall increase in September, more product sections declined than increased in the month.
  • From June to September, the value of exports rose 11.4%.
  • Increases in exports were observed in 7 of the 11 product sections in September, with energy products accounting for most of the gain in total exports.Imports of motor vehicles and parts rose 5.8% in September, a sixth consecutive monthly increase.These imports were up 24.0% in the first nine months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022.
  • The contribution of prices to the monthly export movement was noteworthy in September; exports were up slightly by 0.4% in real (or volume) terms.passenger cars and light trucks (+9.4%) in September were responsible for most of the monthly increase, amid strong Canadian demand and increased model availability.
  • Combined, the increases in Canadian exports observed in August and September have almost offset the decline in July, which was partly driven by port disruptions in British Columbia. Despite the overall increase in September, more product sections declined than increased in the month.
  • In real (or volume) terms, imports were up 1.7%.
  • Imports of motor vehicles and parts rose 5.8% in September, a sixth consecutive monthly increase. These imports were up 24.0% in the first nine months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022.
  • Higher imports of passenger cars and light trucks (+9.4%) in September were responsible for most of the monthly increase, amid strong Canadian demand and increased model availability.
  • Higher imports from Mexico led the gain in September. Despite disruptions caused by strike activity in the United States auto manufacturing industry, imports from that country were relatively stable, with inventories compensating for the loss of production.

Brazil central bank stresses long journey to return inflation to target

  • Brazil’s central bank said on Tuesday that there remains a substantial journey ahead to bring inflation back to the official target, stressing it has ignited a wide-ranging discussion on the increasingly challenging external scenario.
  • Brazil central bank stresses long journey to return inflation to target

Brazil’s central bank said on Tuesday that there remains a substantial journey ahead to bring inflation back to the official target, stressing it has ignited a wide-ranging discussion on the increasingly challenging external scenario.

In the minutes of the meeting held on October 31-November 1, when the bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 12.25%, it said that its rate-setting committee was unanimous in its assessment that the increased uncertainty in the global scenario calls for caution.


Commodities

Gold extends backslide, aimed for $1,950

  • Spot Gold prices are seeing further losses on the week as risk appetite staggers.
  • Gold falls through $1,970, further downside on the cards.
  • Market sentiment has reversed direction this week.

Spot Gold is getting knocked down for a second day in a row as the week rotates into risk-off flows following last week’s sentiment recovery. Markets overwhelmingly heralded the end of rate hikes following last week’s Fed rate hold, but Monday saw a pullback as investors moderated their forward-looking positions on rate expectations.

US crude futures settle at $77.37

  • Down -$3.45 or -4.27%

The price of crude oil futures are settling at $77.37.That’s down $3.45 or -4.27%. The decline is the largest sense October 4 when the price fell -5.57%.

The price fell below its 200-day moving average is $78.14 and traded to the lowest level since July 24. The price closed at $80.42 at the end of 2022. The high price for the year reached $94.99 on September 28 while the low price on May 5 reached $63.61.

OPEC+ has taken steps to achieve ‘stable’ crude market in 2023

  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) have taken a proactive and a preventative approach to achieve a stable crude market, its general secretary told the Argus European Crude Conference on Tuesday.

OPEC Sec Gen has been on the wires this morning:

  • SAYS THROUGHOUT 2023 OPEC+ TOOK PROACTIVE AND PREVENTIVE APPROACH TO ACHIEVE STABLE MARKET
  • OIL DEMAND CONTINUES TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
  • SAYS CHINESE ECONOMY STILL GROWING BY 4.5-5%, SLOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN USED TO
  • SAYS WE STILL SEE A HEALTHY GLOBAL ECONOMY DESPITE INFLATION, CENTRAL BANK ACTION
  • THERES A LOT MORE ROOM FOR AVIATION DEMAND TO PICK UP

(Reuters) – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) have taken a proactive and a preventative approach to achieve a stable crude market, its general secretary told the Argus European Crude Conference on Tuesday.

Japan expresses concern over sanctions on Russian LNG project

Japan has very limited energy resources itself and is thus a huge net importer.Japan’s Industry Minister Nishimura seems to be resigned to coping with the hand he has been dealt:

  • Certain degree of impact to LNG businesses unavoidable, when asked about US sanctions against Russia’s Arctic-2 LNG project
  • Will gauge impact with related parties and take appropriate action
  • Will take appropriate action to ensure stable energy supply

Japanese company Mitsui & Co says it will invest in the operating company of Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project.


EU News

European equity close: Trailing US markets again

  • Closing changes for the main European bourses
  • Stoxx 600 -0.2%
  • German DAX +0.1%
  • UK FTSE 100 -0.1%
  • French CAC -0.4%
  • Italy MIB -0.6%
  • Spain IBEX -0.1%

Europe PPI (YoY) (Sep) $EUR Actual: -12.4% Expected: -12.5% Previous: -11.5%

  • Europe PPI (YoY) (Sep) $EUR Actual: -12.4% Expected: -12.5% Previous: -11.5%

Euro zone producer prices rose in line with expectations in September from a month earlier and plunged year-on-year due to a sharp drop in energy prices, data showed on Tuesday.

Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State:

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in September 2023, compared with August 2023, increased by 2.2% inthe energy sector, while prices remained stable for capital goods and for durable consumer goods, and prices decreased by 0.2% for both intermediate goods and non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy decreased by 0.1%.

Eurozone Construction PMI Soften further

  • Eurozone Construction PMI Soften further
    • Europe HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct) $EUR Actual: 42.7 Previous: 43.6
    • Germany Construction PMI (Oct) $EUR Actual: 38.3 Previous: 39.3
    • France Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct) $EUR Actual: 41.0 Previous: 43.7
    • Italy HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Oct) $EUR Actual: 51.8 Previous: 49.8

    United Kingdom Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Oct) $GBP Actual: -3.2% Previous: -4.5%

    • United Kingdom Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Oct) $GBP Actual: -3.2% Previous: -4.5%

    German Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) Actual: -1.4% Expected: -0.1% Previous: -0.2%

    • German industrial output posts stronger-than-forecast fall in September

    German industrial production fell more than forecast in September by 1.4% compared to the previous month, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday.

    Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.1% decline.

    Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) $EUR Actual: -1.4% Expected: -2.9% Previous: -3.3%

    • Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) $EUR Actual: -1.4% Expected: -2.9% Previous: -3.3%

    Swiss forex reserves down in October

    • The Swiss National Bank’s foreign exchange reserves fell in October, data showed on Tuesday.

    (Reuters) – The Swiss National Bank’s foreign exchange reserves fell in October, data showed on Tuesday.

    SWISS NATIONAL BANK FOREX RESERVES AT CHF 657,756 MLN AT END OF OCTOBER

    SWISS NATIONAL BANK FOREX RESERVES REVISED TO CHF 678,287 MLN AT END OF SEPTEMBER

    ECB’s Nagel: Wage growth and decreasing labor supply will keep up pressure on inflation

    • Comments from Nagel
    • Imperative to remain vigilant
    • We still face risks that inflation outlook could turn out higher than expected

    German companies prefer foreign investment to domestic – DIHK

    • German companies are more likely to invest in international locations than in Germany, a survey of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) and the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHK) showed on Tuesday.

    German companies prefer foreign investment to domestic – DIHK

    German companies are more likely to invest in international locations than in Germany, a survey of the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) and the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHK) showed on Tuesday.

    A third of the 3,600 companies surveyed were planning to invest more in their international locations over the next 12 months, while a fifth intend to invest less, the survey showed.

    However, according to another study recently published by the DIHK, companies in Germany are more likely to reduce their investments in the country (36%) than to increase them (24%).

    Big Tech to face tougher rules on targeted political ads in EU

    • Big Tech firms will face new European Union rules to clearly label political advertising on their platforms, who paid for it and how much and which elections are being targeted, ahead of important votes in the bloc next year.

    Big Tech to face tougher rules on targeted political ads in EU.

    Big Tech firms will face new European Union rules to clearly label political advertising on their platforms, who paid for it and how much and which elections are being targeted, ahead of important votes in the bloc next year.

    The new political advertising rules, which were agreed by EU countries and European Parliament lawmakers late on Monday, will force social media groups such as Alphabet’s Google, Meta Platforms to be more transparent and accountable.

    Violations of the new EU can be punished with fines up 6% of an ad provider’s annual turnover.

    ECB’s de Guindos expects low growth or economic standstill in Q4 in eurozone

    • European Central Bank vice-president Luis de Guindos said on Tuesday the ECB expects an economic contraction or a standstill in the fourth quarter in eurozone.

    European Central Bank vice-president Luis de Guindos said on Tuesday the ECB expects an economic contraction or a standstill in the fourth quarter in eurozone.

    “We have seen stagnation or negative growth in the third quarter and we expect this to continue in the fourth quarter,”

    The eurozone gross domestic product contracted 0.1% in the third quarter from the previous one.


    Other News

    IMF upgrades China’s 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts

    • The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday upgraded its 2023 gross domestic product growth forecast for China to 5.4% from 5%, citing a “strong” post-COVID-19 recovery, but said the fund still expected the Chinese economy to slow next year.

    The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday upgraded its 2023 gross domestic product growth forecast for China to 5.4% from 5%, citing a “strong” post-COVID-19 recovery, but said the fund still expected the Chinese economy to slow next year.

    The upward revision followed a decision by China to approve a 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) sovereign bond issue and allow local governments to frontload part of their 2024 bond quotas, in a move to support the economy.

    Over the medium term, growth is projected to gradually slow to about 3.5% by 2028 amid headwinds from weak productivity and population aging

    Toyota extends output cut at Chinese JV to ease dealer pressure

    • Japan’s Toyota Motor has told dealers that it will extend a plan to reduce output at one of its joint ventures in China, where it faces rising competition.

    Toyota extends output cut at Chinese JV to ease dealer pressure.

    Japan’s Toyota Motor has told dealers that it will extend a plan to reduce output at one of its joint ventures in China, where it faces rising competition.

    The cut, which was initially for October and November, will be extended by three months, Toyota’s joint venture with China’s state-owned FAW Group said in a letter dated Nov. 3, which was seen by Reuters and verified with one of the dealers.

    Its aim is to ease inventory pressure on dealers and ensure they can operate well in the “severe market environment”.

    China October exports -6.4% y/y (expected -3.3%) & imports +3% y/y (expected -4.8%)

    • Those are in US dollar terms

    The big beat for imports is a positive for China proxy trades such as AUD. It argues the economy is showing better signs of improvement and thus sucking in imported goods.

    Citigroup says its not pulling out of China

    Global Times report:

    • Citibank (China) issued a statement on Tuesday refuting recent false reports and misleading statements circulating on social media platforms regarding “Citibank’s exit from the Chinese market.”
    • “The reports contain exaggerations and are not accurate,” Citibank said, emphasizing that it is strategically adjusting its consumer banking operations globally, including the gradual discontinuation of its consumer banking business in the Chinese mainland.
    • This adjustment does not affect its corporate and institutional client services, and Citibank remains committed to the development of these sectors in the Chinese mainland.

    Deutsche Bank CEO concerned about capital markets, Goldman Sachs CEO more optimistic

    Headline comments are trickling out of Hong Kong’s global finance summit.

    • Deutsche Bank CEO Sewing says he is nervous about the future for capital markets given geopolitical risks and interest rates
    • Goldman Sachs head Solomon says he think there will be a more constructive environment for capital markets ahead in 2024 and 2025

    Australia – RBA announce a +25bp interest rate hike, as widely expected

    • Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate rise decision

    Reserve Bank of Australia with their 13th cash rate hike since they began this hiking cycle in May of 2022.

    Headlines via Reuters:

    • Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target
    • CPI inflation is now expected to be around 3½ per cent by the end of 2024 and at the top of the target range of 2 to 3 per cent by the end of 2025.
    • Board judged an increase in interest rates was warranted today to be more assured that inflation would return to target in a reasonable timeframe.
    • Still significant uncertainties around the outlook
    • Services price inflation has been surprisingly persistent overseas and the same could occur in Australia
    • To date, medium-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case
    • High inflation is weighing on people’s real incomes and household consumption growth is weak, as is dwelling investment
    • Wages growth has picked up over the past year but is still consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up
    • Weight of information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased.

    Japan data – September Household Spending -2.8% y/y (vs. expected -2.7%)

    September Household Spending -2.8% y/y

    • expected -2.7%, prior -2.5%

    For the m/m +0.3%

    • exp -0.4%, prior +3.9%

    Japan data – September Labor Cash Earnings +1.2% y/y (expected +1.0%)

    Japan data – September Labor Cash Earnings +1.2% y/y

    • expected +1.0%, prior +1.1%
    • real wages (inflation adjusted) -2.4% y/y
    • Overtime pay +0.7% y/y
    • prior +0.2%

    Cryptocurrency News

    XRP bulls to defend $0.60 level at all costs ahead of Ripple Swell 2023

    • Ripple price is holding above the $0.66 support level despite XRP trading in overbought territory.
    • The $0.60 level remains critical for the remittance token since every day in November has closed above this level after closing out October there.
    • XRP could still realize 15% growth as token holders keep their selling appetite in check ahead of key community event.
    • Invalidation of the bullish thesis will occur once the payments token closes below the $0.53 support level.

    Ripple remains bullish after a solid breakout beginning on October 18, when the rally in the broader market kick-started a strong move north. The payments token managed to break past the $0.60 barrier on November 1, steered by buying pressure from retail traders, and will not relent as a key community event is due.

    Bitcoin moves back above the $35,000 level and makes a break above trendline resistance

    • Now at $35500

    Close risk is now the broken trendline at $35,120. The price of bitcoin has broken above a topside trendline on the hourly chart ,and it’s at $35,500.

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