North American News
US equities give up gains late, Nasdaq struggles
- Closing changes for the main US bourses
- S&P 500 +0.1%
- Nasdaq Comp -0.4%
- Russell 2000 +0.8%
- DJIA +0.3%
US sells 3-year notes at 3.810% vs 3.810% WI
- Results of the US 3-year notes auction
The prior 3-year auction came after Powell’s hawkish Humphrey Hawkins testimony but prior to the bank runs and sold at 4.635%, or around 80 bps above current levels.
Fed’s Williams: Inflation is still way above our 2% goal
- Comments from the Fed’s Williams
- We see some slowing in demand for labor but it’s still strong
- We are somewhat restrictive on monetary policy now
- Now we need to watch the data on retail sales, CPI and others
- Too soon to see changes in credit conditions and availability
- I expect economy to grow at a modest pace this year
- Bank failures have added uncertainty to the outlook
- We need to stay in data dependent mode
- I don’t think we need to adjust balance sheet policy any time soon, it’s going very smoothly
Commodities
Gold restarts the upside rotation….
- But can it get back above the 100 hour moving average
Gold prices are currently trading close to the day’s highs at $2007.44, with the price at $2005.20. Examining the hourly chart for gold, we can see that yesterday the price briefly dipped below both the 100-hour moving average and the 200-hour moving average. However, it failed to maintain momentum below the lower moving average. This failure prompted support buyers to lean against the 200-hour moving average, eventually leading to a rebound.
Today’s high price approached the 100-hour moving average, which is at 2008.14. Although the price is above the 200-hour moving average, it remains below the 100-hour moving average, indicating an ongoing battle between buyers and sellers. Nevertheless, buyers seem to be making a push after the failed break below the 200-hour moving average and finding support at this level.
Conversely, if the 100 hour MA cannot be broken, traders will be more wary of the upside and we could/should see a retest of the lower 200 hour MA again (near $1991.93).
Oil gets its groove back with WTI crude climbing $1.79 to $81.53
- Oil steadily climbed in New York trade
It’s been a strange month in the oil market, starting with the shock decision from OPEC+ to cut output. That was followed by five days of sluggish trading in a narrow range as holidays hit and the market struggled to weigh worries about oversupply now against tightening supplies in the second half of the year.
The chart shows an ultra- rare sextuple top at $83 in what’s been a rock solid wall of resistance. We’re at $81.50 today but also note that this is the highest closing level since November.
EU News
European equity close: French stocks hit an all-time record
- The CAC 40 touches the highest intraday level ever
Closing changes for the main European bourses:
- Stoxx 600 +0.6%
- French CAC +1.0%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.6%
- German DAX
- Italy MIB +0.9%
- Spain IBEX -0.9%
Other News
Treas Sec Yellen: I am not anticipating a downturn in the economy, although a possibility
- Treasury Secretary Yellen speaking about the economy
- Not anticipating a downturn in the economy although it is a possibility
- Friendshoring is approach to deal with supply chain risks but retains tremendous scope for global trade to continue
- Argument that friendshoring will cause fragmentation is not valid
- Russia’s war in Ukraine showed importance of diversifying supply chains
- deeply concerned over Russia’s detention of Wall Street Journal reporter
- China will be an active participant in first principles meeting of sovereign debt Roundtable
- expects some progress on technical aspects of debt restructuring
- I would overdo the negativism about the global economy
- there are economic risk, many related to Russia’s war in Ukraine
- I think the outlook is reasonably bright
- Sees World Bank reforms as initial steps, expects phase-in of additional actions over remainder of year
IMF forecasts 2023 global GDP at 2.8% vs 2.9% in January
- The latest forecasts from the IMF
- 2024 GDP lowered to 3.0% vs 3.1% in January
- China forecasts for 2023 and 2024 unchanged at 5.2% and 4.5%, respectively
- Japan 2023 GDP lowered to 1.3% from 1.8%
- Eurozone 2023 growth at 0.8% vs 0.7% in January
- UK and German GDP still seen slightly contracting this year
- US growth to 1.6% from 1.4% in January
- A plausible alternative scenario of more moderate lending would cut growth by 0.3 pp from baseline
- Banking system turmoil appears contained but further tightening of lending would further reduce growth
- Inflation still too elevated, monetary policy should focus on bringing it down
Cryptocurrency News
XRP may not bear an impact as terrible as other altcoins would, even if Ripple loses the SEC lawsuit
- Ripple vs. SEC is set to come to a conclusion over the next two months, with Judge Torres expected to rule in the crypto company’s favor.
- Banks have remained unbothered by the lawsuit, continuing to partner with Ripple, proving the project’s relevance and potential for real-world use cases.
- XRP has only declined in social presence, with its loyal community set to push the altcoin price up regardless of the result.
Ripple has been fighting the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the last two years. The lawsuit, which is expected to become a landmark case in crypto regulation, is nearing its conclusion, and the possibility of losing the case has got many Ripple users worried. But even if Ripple loses the case, they should not panic.
Why Ripple has nothing to worry about
Since December 2020, Ripple has been suffering the legal torture that the SEC put out, and the company still stands strong, still finding real-world use cases. Even though many cryptocurrency exchanges have delisted their native token XRP, the project is continuing to serve the inherent purpose of its existence.
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