North American News
US stock indices close the day near session highs
- Nasdaq up 16.77% for the quarter
The major US stock indices are closing the day near the highs for the day. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which rose over 1.7%.
A snapshot of the closing levels shows:
- Dow Industrial Average 415.12.41.26 percent at 33274.14
- S&P index of 58.50 points or 1.44% at 4109.32
- NASDAQ index up 208.43 points or 1.73% at 12221.90
For the calendar month, the NASDAQ index led the way with a gain of 6.69%
- Dow industrial average rose 1.89%
- S&P index rose 3.51%
- NASDAQ index rose 6.69%
For the first quarter, the NASDAQ index led the way with an oversized gain of 16.77%. That was the largest percentage increase since the 2Q of 2020 when the index rose 30.63%. You have to go back to the 1Q of 2012 to have the next largest percentage gain for quarter.
- Dow Industrial Average squeaked out a small gain of 0.38%
- S&P index rose by 7.03%
- NASDAQ index rose by 16.77%
US February PCE core inflation 4.6% vs 4.7% expected
- US core PCE from the US personal consumption expenditure report for February 2023
- Prior was +4.7%
- PCE core MoM +0.3% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior MoM +0.6%
- Headline inflation PCE +5.0% vs +5.4% prior
- Deflator MoM +0.3% vs +0.6% prior
Consumer spending and income for November:
- Personal income +0.3% vs +0.2% expected. Prior month +0.6%
- Personal spending +0.2% vs +0.3% expected. Prior month +1.8%
- Real personal spending -0.1% vs +1.1% prior
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q growth dips to 2.5%
- Down from 3.2% last
The Atlanta for GDPNow estimate for 1Q growth dipped to 2.5% from 3.2% last.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent on March 31, down from 3.2 percent on March 24. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 5.0 percent, -7.0 percent, and 1.8 percent, respectively, to 4.6 percent, -7.3 percent, and 1.7 percent.
Dallas Fed Feb trimmed mean PCE price index +4.0% vs +5.8% prior
- The Dallas Fed index is a measure of one-month annualized underlying inflation
- Prior was +5.8% annualized
UMich March final US consumer sentiment 62.0 vs 63.2 expected
- UMich consumer sentiment data
- Prelim was 63.4
- Prior was 67.0
- Current conditions 66.3 vs 66.4 prelim (70.7 prior)
- Expectations 59.2 vs 61.5 prelim (64.7 prior)
- 1-year inflation 3.6% vs 3.8% prelim (4.1% prior)
- 5-10 year inflation 2.9% vs 2.8% prelim (2.9% prior)
Fed’s Collins: Maintaining tight monetary policy is the key to lowering inflation
- The latest inflation news is welcome but the Fed still hasn’t made enough progress
- A weaker jobs report in March unlikely to change the monetary policy outlook
- Plethora of surprises make it hard to predict what US central bank will do at the May meeting
- It’s early days in judging whether the Fed has gone as far as it needs to go
- Data on PCE is some good news
- We need to balance risk of doing too much versus not doing enough
- Data in the last week has not materially changed her view of policy
Fed’s Williams: Economic data will drive policy, the outlook is uncertain
- Comments from the NY Fed President
- Economic outlook is uncertain, data will drive monetary policy
- Expects inflation to cool to 3.25% this year
- Unemployment rate to tick up to around 4.5%
- Current banking problems aren’t an echo of 2008 events
- Banks are resilient and well capitalized
Commodities
Silver hits new monthly highs above $24.00, driven by falling US bond yields
- XAG/USD surpasses monthly highs amid positive market sentiment, despite the rising US Dollar.
- US Core PCE was below estimates, opening the door for a less aggressive Fed.
- XAG/USD Price Analysis: Expected to continue its rally and test the YTD high of $24.63
Silver price trades at new monthly highs above $24.00 a troy ounce, sponsored by falling US Treasury bond yields. Sentiment continues to be the main driver in the session, with US equities set to finish the month with gains. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD is trading at $24.10, gaining 0.89%.
OPEC oil output fell in March – survey
- Data from Reuters’ secondary sources survey
The monthly OPEC survey from Reuters showed production down 70k bpd in March to 28.90 million barrels per day. The dips came on maintenance in Angola and a halt in some Iraq exports.
Nigeria, meanwhile, increase output as it was able to restore production and clamp down on theft.
EU News
European equity close: Another solid day wraps up a great week and great quarter
- Well, Deutsche Bank didn’t collapse this week
Closing changes for the day:
- Stoxx 600 +0.8%
- German DAX +0.8%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.2%
- French CAC +0.9%
- Italy MIB +0.5%
- Spain IBEX +0.5%
On the week:
- Stoxx 600 +4.2%
- German DAX+4.6%
- UK FTSE 100 +3.2%
- French CAC +4.6%
- Italy MIB +4.9%
- Spain IBEX +5.2%
On the quarter:
- Stoxx 600 +7.9%
- German DAX +12.4%
- UK FTSE 100 +2.6%
- French CAC +13.3%
- Italy MIB +14.5%
- Spain IBEX +9.5%
ECB’s Lagarde: Core inflation is still significantly too high
- Comments from the ECB President
- Rate hike push is starting to work
- Must return to 2% inflation
Other News
Commodities prices to trend higher in 2023 and beyond – UBS
The global commodities sector has come under pressure in March. But strategists at UBS remain most preferred in this asset class.
Playing the long game in commodities
“We continue to see opportunities in longer-dated Brent Oil contracts with a price target of $100/bbl.”
“We also recommend a long Platinum trade, with a price target of $1,150 due to the metal’s close correlation to Gold.”
“We also see opportunities in selling the downside price risks in Crude oil, Copper, Nickel, Gold and Platinum.”
Colombia National Jobless Rate meets expectations (12.7%) in February
US President Biden: We are making progress in the fight against inflation
US President Joe Biden delivered a statement following the February PCE report, highlighting the progress in the “fight against inflation”.
Quotes from the statement:
“We are making progress in the fight against inflation. Today’s report shows annual inflation down by nearly 30 percent from this summer, against a backdrop of low unemployment and steady growth. The fight against inflation isn’t over, and every day my Administration is working to give families more breathing room.”
“In February we saw the lowest food inflation in nearly two years.”
“We should continue to invest in America from the middle out and the bottom up. This is not the time to turn back to trickle-down economics by cutting American manufacturing and other critical programs American families count on, just to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy, Big Pharma, and Big Oil. The last thing our economy needs right now is the reckless threat of a chaotic default. Those threats must be taken off the table.”
Cryptocurrency News
Tron CEO Justin Sun loses key position while TUSD circulation rises by nearly $20 billion in two weeks
- Tron founder, Justin Sun, was removed as the Ambassador of Grenada to the World Trade Organization.
- TrueUSD (TUSD) has been raging in the crypto market following Binance’s increased allocation to TUSD usage over USDT (Tether).
- TUSD circulation has increased to $60 billion in the span of two weeks, with Sun now aiming at $100 billion by the end of 2023.
For the second week this month, Tron foundation’s founder, Justin Sun, is facing the heat of the crypto space. The Grenada Broadcasting Network announced the end of Sun’s term as ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO), all while achieving more than he aimed at in the last couple of days.
Justin Sun is out!
The Grenada Broadcasting Network reported on March 31 that Justin Sun is no longer a diplomat for the Caribbean nation of Grenada. This comes after Sun and his companies were charged by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for fraud and other securities law violations on March 22.
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