North American News
Big divergence between tech and the rest of the stock market. Bank worries worsen
- Closing changes for North American equities
The day started off with S&P 500 futures flat but that turned into a big rally shortly afterwards but it didn’t last as the pain re-started in US regional banks and the worries spread. Despite that, US tech stocks did well, gaining 1% as AI hopes and expectations for lower rates boost the sector.
- S&P 500 up 12 points or 0.3% to 3948
- Nasdaq +1.0%
- Russell 2000 -0.3%
- DJIA +0.2%
US February new home sales 640K vs 650K expected
- US February 2023 new home sales data
- Prior was 670K
- Change vs +7.2% prior
- Median sale price $438.2K vs $427.4K a year ago (+2.5%)
- Single family sales +1.1% vs +1.8% prior
- Units for sale at end of Feb 436k vs 439K prior
US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 18 comes in at 191K vs 197K estimate
- The initial jobless claims and continuing claims for the current weeks
- Prior report 192K
- initial jobless claims 191K vs 197K estimate
- four week moving average of initial jobless claims 196.25K versus 196.50K last week
- continuing claims 1.694M vs 1.684M estimate. Prior week was revised to 1.680M from 1.684M last week.
- four week moving average of continuing claims 1.684M vs last week’s 1.675M last week.
KC Fed March manufacturing index +3 vs -9 prior
- Manufacturing data from the Kansas City Fed
- Prior was -9
- Composite index 0 vs 0 prior
Commodities
Gold nears $2000 once again
- Gold up $28 to $1998
Gold prices briefly traded above $2000 on Monday but quickly turned around and closed below the key level before falling back to $1935.
However the continued turmoil in banks and the belief that the Federal Reserve will have to cut rates this year has given another lift to gold. It’s up $28 today to $1998 in what would be the highest close in a year.
Silver hovers nearby 6-week highs above $23.00
- Silver price remains underpinned by a soft US Dollar and depressed US bond yields.
- XAG/USD Price Analysis: A daily close above $23.00 could exacerbate a rally toward YTD highs.
Silver price advances sharply to fresh six-week highs in the North American session, courtesy of a weak US Dollar (USD), which remains downward pressured by falling US Treasury bond yields. Hence, the XAG/USD is trading at $23.12 after hitting a daily low of $22.76.
Silver Price action
During the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, the XAG/USD traded sideways around the $22.20s area before the US Treasury bond yields tumbled. After that, Silver rallied and tested the $23.00 figure before pulling back and closing at $22.97. However, Thursday’s price action resumed upwards, with buyers piling around the $22.70 area, and lifted XAG/USD price above the $23.00 mark.
Although the XAG/USD bias is neutral, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $21.87 exceeded the 200-day EMA at $21.83. That could exacerbate another leg-up in Silver prices, and the white metal could test the YTD high at $24.63.
The XAG/USD first resistance would be the February 3 daily high at $23.59. Once cleared, the XAG/USD will be headed toward the $24.00 mark. Once broken, Silver will be poised to test the YTD high at $24.63.
In an alternate scenario, the XAG/USD first support would be $23.00. A daily close below the latter will keep XAG/USD price downward pressured.
WTI crude oil futures and settle at $69.96
- Down $0.94 or -1.33%
The price of WTI crude futures are selling at $69.96. That’s down $0.94 or -1.33%. The low price reached $69.84. The high price was at $71.67. The price settled near the low price for the day.
Looking at the hourly chart, the closing level tested the 100 hour moving average and a swing area near $69.80. More momentum below that area would increase the bearish bias in the short term at least.
EIA weekly US natural gas inventories -72 bcf vs -75 bcf expected
- US natural gas inventories
- Prior was -58 bcf
EU News
Eurozone March consumer confidence flash-19.2 vs -19.0 prior
- March US consumer confidence data
- Prior was -19.0 (revised to -19.3)
BOE’s Bailey: We believe inflation will fall quite rapidly befor the summer
- Comments after the BOE decision
- Feb inflation data means we need to see fall in inflation happen
- We will go on making decisions needed for sustained, low inflation
- We have been able to fix problems in banks
- We have raised interest rates a lot already
- We don’t know if 4.25% will be a peak in rates
- We see signs of inflation peeking, but it’s far too high
- There are signs of inflation pressures calming down
- We are much more hopeful now that UK won’t enter a recession
- I don’t think we will see a repeat in 2008 banking crisis: UK banks are much stronger
Other News
Yellen changes here opening remarks to highlight potential further action on deposits
- Yellen adds “certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted” and more
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cut the legs out of stock markets yesterday in her testimony to the Senate when she said that no further action was coming for depositors. Today she’s appearing in the House and that her prepared text has been altered.
Here is the paragraph that graced her speech yesterday:
As I said last week, the U.S. banking system is sound. The federal government’s recent actions have demonstrated our resolute commitment to take the necessary steps to ensure that depositors’ savings remain safe.
Today, that entire paragraph has been deleted and replaced with the following:
“As I have said, we have used important tools to act quickly to prevent contagion. And they are tools we could use again. The strong actions we have taken ensure that Americans’ deposits are safe. Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted.”
Cryptocurrency News
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum
- Above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2022 high
Bitcoin’s price reached a new session high today at $28,818, inching closer to yesterday’s peak of $28,936. The digital currency is now trading at its highest level since June 11, 2022. Additionally, the price has been oscillating around the 38.2% retracement level, calculated from the March 2022 high ($48,234) to the November low ($15,479), which stands at $27,991.41.
Crypo fugitive Do Kwon reportedly arrested in Montenegro
- The man behind the LUNA scam is caught
Do Kwon, the ex-CEO of crypto platform Terraform Labs, has been arrested in Montenegro, according to interior minister Filip Adzec.
“The former “cryptocurrency king”, who is behind losses of more than $40 billion, was detained at the Podgorica airport with falsified documents, and the same is claimed by South Korea, the USA and Singapore,” he said
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