North American News
Major US indices closing with mixed results
- Dow Industrial Average is the weakest
The major US indices are closing with mixed results:
- Dow Industrial Average was the weakest of the three major indices. It fell -57.95 points or -0.18% at 32798.54
- S&P index rose 5.71 points or 0.14% at 3992.07
- NASDAQ index rose 45.68 points or 0.40% at 11576.01
- Russell 2000 rose 0.75 points or +0.04% at 1879.48
OLTs job openings for January 10.824M vs 10.500M estimate
- JOLTs Jobs data for January 2023
- Prior month 11.012M
- JOLTs job openings 10.824M versus 10.5M estimate
- Hires 4.1% % vs 4.0% last month
- Quits 2.5% % vs 2.7% last month. Quits decreased to 3.9 million or -207,000. Quits decreased in professional business services at -22K
- Layoffs and discharges 1.1% vs 1.0% last month.
- In 2022 the annual average job levels was 11.2 million an increase of 1.2 million from 2021
- in 2022 there were 77.2 million hires an increase of 1.2 million from 2021
- total separations, quits came in at 50.6 million in 2022 that was the highest annual level in the survey’s history (going back to 2001)
- layoffs and discharges increased 461,000 in 2022 to 17.6 million
US ADP February employment K +242K vs +200K expected
- US February 2023 employment data from ADP
- Prior was +106K (revised to +119K)
- Annual pay increase of job stayers +7.2% vs +7.3% prior
- Pay increase of job changers +14.3% vs +15.4% prior
- Small companies -56K
- Midsized companies +77K
- Larger companies +160K
US trade deficit for January $-68.3 billion vs -$68.9 billion estimate
- US trade data for the month of January
- Prior month $-67.4 billion revised to $-67.2 billion
- International trade deficit for January 2023 -68.3 being dollars versus -$68.9 billion estimate
- good trade balance $-91.09 billion versus -91.5 billion preliminary. Last month -89.67 billion
- exports came in at $257.5 billion or $8.5 billion more than December. Exports were up 3.4% on the month
- imports came in at $325.8 billion or up $9.6 billion more than December. Imports were up 3.0% on the month
Commodities
Gold to see a test of its 200-DMA at $1,775 – Credit Suisse
Gold Price has dipped below its 55-Day Moving Average of $1,864. Strategists at Credit Suisse expect the yellow metal to challenge the 200-DMA at $1,775
Break above $1,890/1900 needed to clear the way for a retest of $1,973/98
“Gold has broken below its 55-DMA, currently seen at $1,864 and with the USD strengthening is seen at risk to a test of the long-term 200-DMA, currently seen at $1,775. We continue to look for this to remain a floor and for the broader risk to turn higher again from here in due course.”
“A close below $1,775 though would warn of further weakness in the broader range to test the ‘neckline’ to the September/November 2022 base at $1,729.”
“Above $1,890/1900 is needed to clear the way for a retest of $1,973/98. Beyond here stays seen needed to reassert an upward bias for a test of long-term resistance from the $2,070/72 record highs of 2020 and 2022.”
US weekly EIA crude oil inventories -1694K vs +395K expected
- US weekly crude oil report from the EIA
- Prior was +1165K
- Gasoline -1134K vs -1863K expected
- Distillates +138KK vs –1038K expected
- Refinery utilization +0.2% vs -0.3% expected
EU News
European equity close: Back in the green
- Closing changes in Europe
US equities are significantly below the recent highs and took a strong hit yesterday but if you look at the DAX (below) it barely budged yesterday and is fractionally away from the highs.
- Stoxx 600 +0.1%
- FTSE 100 +0.2%
- German DAX +0.6%
- French CAC -0.1%
- Italy MIB +0.5%
- Spain IBEX +0.6%
Eurozone Q4 final GDP 0.0% vs +0.1% q/q second estimate
- Latest data released by Eurostat – 8 March 2023
- GDP +1.8% vs +1.9% y/y second estimate
Other News
Powell: No decision has been made on potential 50 bps hike
- March decision is data dependent, we will be guided by incoming data
- Notes jobs and CPI data
- When I said we’re going to be looking at the data, it meant upcoming data
- We have not made any decision about the March meeting
- We’ve had our eyes on the whole housing inflation thing from the beginning
- Regarding the transitory mistake says ‘if we ever see this pitch again, we’ll know how to swing at it’
- The cost of failure to control inflation would be extremely high
- China faster reopening isn’t expected to be a big net effect on the US
- We expect China’s impact to be moderate overall
- Notes that oil prices could be affected by China reopening and notes that it’s more of a concern for Europe
- As shortages and supply chain issues get better, we’ll see corporate margins come down
- Most of the inflation comes from the service sector.
Citi jumps on the bandwagon and forecasts 50 bps for the March FOMC
- Now sees 5.5-5.75% peak
The market is now pricing in a 68% chance of a 50 bps hike on March 22 with the remainder at 25 bps.
Citi economists are chasing the market and have changed their forecast to a 50 bps hike and a terminal rate at 5.50-5.75%.
Cryptocurrency News
Powell’s speech deepens Bitcoin correction
- BTCUSD re-entered the area of the February lows
Bitcoin fell on Tuesday amid falling equity indices and a rising US dollar. BTC updated three-week lows below $22K, losing 2% in the past 24 hours. Risky assets fell sharply amid a hawkish speech from Fed chief Jerome Powell, after which markets began to price in the chances of a 50-basis point rate hike later this month.
BTCUSD re-entered the area of the February lows. However, the dynamics in the FX market were much more capitulatory than in cryptocurrencies, where intraday moves continue to mark buying on dips. Touching levels just below $22K took the price back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December-February rally. Consolidation below $21.5K would be a strong signal to move lower.
However, more buying is likely at the end of the medium-term correction in such situations, and the bulls will only celebrate victory once the price returns above $22.5K.
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