North American News
Major US indices close the day lower. For the month, major indices close down
- Dow leads the declines this month with a decline of -4.2%. Nasdaq falls around 1.1% in February.
The major US indices are closing lower on the day as end of day selling pushes the indices toward their session lows.
The declines are being led by the Dow 30 which fell around -0.70%. The Nasdaq was trading marginally higher going into the close, but end of day selling pushed the index into negative territory. The S&P index closed between those extremes
The close is showing:
- Dow Industrial Average fell -234.11 point or -0.71% at 32654.92
- S&P index fell -12.55 points or -0.32% at 3969.68
- NASDAQ index fell -11.43 points or -0.10% at 11455.55
- Russell 2000 squeaked out a small gain of 0.72 points or +0.04% that 1896.98
The month end changes:
- Dow Industrial Average fell by -4.19%
- S&P index fell by -2.61%
- NASDAQ index fell by -1.11%
- Russell 2000 fell by -1.81%
Dallas Fed service sector survey -9.3 vs -15.0 prior
- Service sector data from the Dallas Fed
- Prior was -15.0
- Services revenue index +6.6 vs +4.9 prior
- Employment +8.8 vs +10.5 prior
- Input prices 38.8 vs 40.6 prior
- Retail outlook survey -19.9 vs -16.9 prior
US December Case-Shiller 20-city home price index -0.5% m/m vs -0.5% expected
- US housing data from Case-Shiller
- Prior was -0.5%
- Year-over-year prices +4.6% vs +5.8% expected
- Prior y/y reading was +6.8%
US January advanced goods trade balance -$91.50B vs -$89.7B last month
- US advance goods trade balance
- advanced good trade balance -$91.50 billion versus -$89.7 billion last month
- exports came in at $173.8 billion up 7 billion from December
- imports came in at $265.3 billion which was up 8.8 billion from December
US January wholesale inventories -0.4% vs +0.1% prior
- US January 2023 GDP data
- Prior was +0.1%
- Retail inventories ex-autos vs +0.4% expected
Commodities
Gold advances on its path toward $1830 on soft US Dollar
- Last Friday’s report of a high Core PCE, the Fed’s gauge for inflation, augmented speculations of rates “higher for longer.”
- US housing data in the United States was mixed, though the markets mainly ignored it.
- XAU/USD Price Forecast: Albeit jumping at the 200-DMA, downside risks remain below $1850.
Gold price is recovering after hitting a new YTD low of $1804.78, rising above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Factors like a mixed sentiment and a soft US Dollar (USD) are tailwinds for the yellow metal, even though there are growing speculations for higher rates in the United States (US). Hence, the XAU/USD is trading at $1827.03, above its opening price by 0.56%.
OPEC survey shows Nigerian output rebounding in February
- The secondary source survey from Reuters for February
- OPEC undershot production quota by 880K bpd in Feb vs 920K bpd in January
- Compliance at 169% of pledged cuts vs 172% prior[OPEC output rises by 150k bpd from January
- Nigerian output rose 100k bpd in Feb
- Angola output fell 80k bpd on maintenance
EU News
France February CPI +6.2% vs +6.1% y/y expected
- Latest data released by INSEE – 28 February 2023
- Prior +6.0%
- CPI +0.9% vs +0.7% m/m expected
- Prior +0.4%
- HICP +7.2% vs +7.0% y/y expected
- Prior +7.0%
- HICP +1.0% vs +1.0% m/m expected
- Prior +0.4%
Spain February CPI +6.1% vs +5.7% y/y expected
- Latest data released by INE – 28 February 2023
- Prior +5.9%
- CPI +1.0% m/m
- Prior -0.2%
- HICP +6.1% vs +5.5% y/y expected
- Prior +5.9%
- HICP +1.0% vs +0.5% m/m expected
- Prior -0.4%’
Other News
Fed might have to go to 6% to get inflation back to target – BofA
- The pressure is on
Well, markets are pricing in a terminal rate roughly around 5.40% now so it will be a big shift if we start to see expectations shift towards 6.00% instead. For some context, BofA is still expecting the Fed to raise rates three more times this year (by 25 bps) so as to push the terminal rate to the 5.25% to 5.50% range.
However, they say that “the resilience of demand-driven inflation means the Fed might have to raise rates closer to 6% to get inflation back to target”. Adding that “gangbusters January activity and spending data” points towards a higher pain threshold on the part of consumers when it comes to the Fed’s tightening cycle.
Cryptocurrency News
Shiba Inu: Is there a chance for traders to short the “Dogecoin killer”?
- Shiba Inu price inches closer to the critical support level at $0.00001182.
- Losing the critical support will result in SHIB plunging to $0.00000968.
- If the meme coin reclaims $0.00001395 as support, it would have an opportunity to breach $0.00001695 and invalidate the bearish thesis.
Shiba Inu price surprisingly failed to take the bullish path higher, defying expectations of a rally. There is now a possibility of trend reversal which could lead to corrections down the line, making it a good opportunity for traders to short the asset.
BOE not lagging in digital currency plans – Cunliffe
- Remarks by BOE policymaker, Jon Cunliffe
- I don’t think we are behind other advanced economies
- There have been no disagreements between BOE and finance ministry
- Delay to consultation on the subject had been due to “disruptions” last autumn i.e. mini-budget fiasco
- Digital pound could have huge benefits for economy and society
He adds that there is a need to see how technology trends and the economy develop over the next few years, before assessing whether or not a digital pound would be technically feasible. For now, sure there’s no rush as other major central banks aren’t exactly pursuing it too strongly. But as mentioned before, all it takes is one to break the stigma and shift the paradigm and the rest will follow quickly.
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