North American News
Good riddance September. A traditional weak month, ends at the lows for major indices
- Major indices down sharply for the month and down for the 3Q as well. S&P closes below its 200 week MA
September is typically a seasonally weak for the US stock market, and it didn’t disappoint this month. The major stock indices are going out at the lows for the day, month, quarter. For the Nasdaq, the index is closing at the lowest level since July 2020. The Dow is closing at the lowest level since November 2020. The S&P is closing at the lowest level since November 2020 as well.
- The Dow and the Nasdaq are both closing below their 200 week MA for the 2nd consecutive week. For the Nasdaq you have to go back to 2009 to have two consecutive week closes below the 200 week MA
- The S&P is closing below its 200 week MA for the first time since the week of March 30, 2020
- The Dow had the worst September since 2002
- The S&P and Nasdaq had its worst September since 2008
For the day:
- Dow industrial average fell -500.10 points or -1.71% at 28725.52
- S&P index fell -54.61 points or -1.51% at 3585.61
- Nasdaq index fell -161.88 points or -1.51% at 10575.63
- Russell 2000 fell -10.21 points or -0.61% at 1664.71
For the month:
- Dow industrial average -8.84 point
- S&P index -9.37%
- NASDAQ index -10.5%
For the quarter, the major indices closed lower for the 3rd consecutive quarter.
- Dow industrial average fell -6.66% (oh no!)
- S&P index fell -5.232%
- NASDAQ index fell -4.11%
The worst performing S&P sectors this month were:
- Real estate, -14.49%
- Communication services -12 14%
- Information technology -12.09%.
Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow +2.4% vs +0.3% prior
The Atlanta Fed third quarter GDP tracker jumped to 2.4% from 0.3% in today’s release.
“After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter gross private domestic investment growth increased from 0.4 percent and -7.6 percent, respectively, to 1.0 percent and -4.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.10 percentage points to 2.20 percentage points.”
UMich September US final consumer sentiment 58.6 vs 59.5 expected
- US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data from the University of Michigan
- Prior was 58.2
- Prelim was 59.5
- Current conditions 59.7 vs 58.9 prelim
- Expectations 58.0 vs 59.9 prelim
- 1-year inflation 4.7% vs 4.6% prelim (4.8% prior)
- 5-10 year inflation 2.7% vs 2.8% prelim (2.9% prior)
Commodities
Gold to suffer a prolonged period of pronounced weakness – TDS
Gold prices remain in a strengthening downtrend, despite the recent respite afforded by the slump in USD. This trend is set to last, in the opinion of strategists at TD Securities.
The pain trade is still to the downside
“The risk of capitulation remains prevalent for the yellow metal moving into October, with strong data continuing to point to a more aggressive Fed rate path ahead.”
While rates markets are increasingly discounting a higher terminal, we find that gold prices aren’t pricing in the next stage of the hiking cycle. Historically, gold prices tend to display a systematic and significant underperformance in the latter stage of hiking cycles, as rates enter into restrictive territory.”
“Considering the increase in inflation’s persistence this cycle, a restrictive regime may last longer than historical precedents with the Fed likely to keep rates elevated for some time, even as recession risks rise, which argues for a prolonged period of pronounced weakness in precious metals.”
OPEC+ talks said to narrow range of potential oil output cut to 0.5 to 1.0 mil bpd
- Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matter
Just a heads up that the meeting will take place on 5 October next week. And in all likelihood, the bloc is likely to lean towards a 1 mil bpd cut in production – at least that was the number floated around over the past week or so among OPEC+ watchers.
EU News
European equity close: Solid gains cushion a rough week
- Closing changes for the main European markets
It was certainly a brutal month in Europe but stocks finished on a positive note and at the highs of the day
- Stoxx 600 +1.5%
- German DAX +1.1%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.5%
- French CAC +1.5%
- Italy MIB +1.6
- Spain IBEX -0.2%
Other News
Putin delivers speech on annexing parts of Ukraine
- Annexes four new regions of Russia
- people choice to join Russia is predicated on history
- we will always remember those who did not put up with a neo-Nazi coup in Ukraine in 2014
- people were torn from their motherland when the Soviet Union broke up
- Russia does not seek to bring back Soviet Union
- We call on Kyiv regime to immediately stop military actions in return to negotiation table. We are ready for talks
- Kyiv should respect the will people
- West continues looking for ways to weaken Russia
- Russia is leading a hybrid war against Russia
- our development, culture is a threat to the West
- West does not need Russia, but we need Russia
- Russia will defend its values and motherland
- Many treaties with West have been broken
- West has no moral rights to speak about democracy
- West elites are the same as they always have been; the colonizers
- United States use nuclear weapons in Japan twice and created the precedent by using nuclear weapons
- West provoked mass migration
- European seeds to the United States, which demands a new sanctions against Russia
- grain from Ukraine goes to Europe rather than to the poor nations of the world
Cryptocurrency News
Staking is coming to Chainlink this December as LINK price stands firm
- Chainlink’s co-founder, Sergey Nazarov, confirms plans for LINK staking.
- LINK bulls get ready to defend support at $7.00.
- Investor sentiment remains positive, with Chainlink whales capitalizing on lower price levels.
Chainlink price is trying to find its feet in the wake of declines that followed its rejection from resistance at $8.40. Despite LINK’s ongoing retracement at $7.68, bulls have managed to sustain a generally up-trending market and Chainlink is up nearly 17.50% from its September low at $6.56.