North American News
Major US indices close lower again in up and down trading session
- Dow and S&P down for the 4th consecutive day. NASDAQ down for the 3rd consecutive day
The major US indices are ending the day with mixed results.
- Dow industrial average is the worst performer (-0.67%)
- Dow industrial average is down for the 4th consecutive day
- At the lows, the Dow was down -166.72 points or -1.59%. The Dow never reach positive territory today (at the high the index was down -0.01%).
- S&P index is also down for the 4th consecutive day. At its lows, the index was down -1.61%. At the highs the S&P was up 0.28%
- NASDAQ index was the best performer trading above and below the unchanged level, but closing in the red for the 3rd consecutive day
- The NASDAQ index at its lows was a down -2.07%. At the highs it was up 0.54%..
- Russell 2000 lower for the 3rd consecutive day
Looking at the final numbers
- Dow industrial average fell -209.81 points or -0.68% at 30771.55
- S&P index fell -17.19 points or -0.45% at 3801.60
- NASDAQ index fell -17.14 points or -0.15% 11247.59
- Russell 2000 fell -2.147 points or -0.21% at 1726.03
A look at the winners in the Dow industrial average the top 5 included:
- Nike, +1.37%
- Procter & Gamble, +0.62%
- Home Depot, +0.62%
- McDonald’s, +0.51%
- Walmart, +0.22%
The biggest losers in the Dow included:
- United health, -2.5%
- Boeing, -2.23%
- Walgreens, -1.92%
- Salesforce, -1.69%
- Honeywell, -1.58%
Some other big losers today included:
- Zoom, -6.46%
- Delta Air Lines -4.60%
- Daimler -4.59%
- Phillip Morris -3.42%
- Rite Aid -3.34%
- American Airlines -2.11%
- FedEx, -3.08%
- Roblox, -2.93%
- AMC, -2.88%
- Raytheon technologies -2.8%
- Alphabet -2.34%
Some big winners today included:
- Twitter, +7.85%
- Game stop, +3.19%
- Snowflake +2.92%
- Celsius, +2.65%
- Alcoa +2.25%
- Rivian, +2.02%
- Qualcomm +2.02%
- Box +1.77%
- Tesla +1.7%
- Ross Stores, +1.68%
US treasury auctions off $19 billion of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 3.115%
- WI level at the time of the auction came in at 3.133%
- High yield 3.115%
- WI level at the time of the auction 3.133%.
- Tail -1.8 bps vs. six-month average of -0.4 basis points
- Bid to cover 2.44X vs six-month average of 2.33X
- Directs 16.34% vs six-month average of 17.6%
- Indirects 73.2% vs. six-month average of 66.6%
- Dealers 10.46% vs six-month average of 15.8%
Commodities
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises near $19.20 on a soft US dollar, as recession fears increase
- Silver Price shows signs of bottoming as the US 2s-10s yield curve inversion deepens further towards negative territory.
- Gold and Silver prices stage a recovery after reaching YTD lows in the last couple of days.
- Richmond’s Fed Thomas Barkin commented that the high CPI print makes the case to fight inflation even harder.
Silver (XAGUSD) advances sharply, approaching weekly highs near $19.36 on Wednesday, after tumbling below $19.00 in the early New York session in the release of higher than estimated US inflation data sparked an upward reaction in US Treasury yields, a headwind for XAGUSD prices. However, as the New York session progressed, the white metal recovered some ground and is trading around $19.17.
Recession fears increase, and traders begin to seek safety in precious metals
Risk-aversion is the game’s name, but precious metals appear to have found a bottom. Worries about recession had increased substantially amongst investors, as shown by the US 2s-10s yield curve inversion for the last seventh days, at -0.236%, levels last seen since 2001s. In the meantime, the greenback remains weak, but stages a comeback, as shown by the US Dollar Index losing 0.16%, at 107.995, a tailwind for the silver price.
Before Wall Street opened, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that prices paid by consumers rose the most since 1981, by 9.1% YoY, higher than the 8.8% expected and topping the 8.6% May reading. Meanwhile, inflation excluding volatile items like food and energy, the so-called core CPI, expanded at a rate of 5.9% YoY, less than the previous number, but above estimations of 5.7%, further cementing the case for the Fed 75 bps rate hike.
With US inflation data in the rearview mirror, STIRs money market futures have begun to price in an 84% chance that the Federal Reserve would hike 100 bps while fully pricing a 75 bps increase.
Of late in the New York session, Richmond’s Fed President Thomas Barkin, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), said the high CPI print “makes the case even stronger to continue to be resolute to fight inflation” when asked if he would favor a 100 bps rate hike. Barkin added that the size of the hike “is not nearly as important to me as the destination, which is, where do you want to take forward-looking real rates?”
What to watch
Data-wise, on Thursday, the US economic calendar will feature Initial Jobless Claims, inflation on the producer side, and Fed speakers will update the status of the US economy.
Crude oil settles at $96.30, up $0.46 or 0.48%
- Finds support near the 200 day moving average
The price of crude oil settles at $96.30. That was up $0.46 or 0.48% the low for the day reached $93.67. The high for the day reached $97.96. The settle is near the middle.
Looking at the daily chart, the low price tested its 200 day moving average. Holding support near that level and also near the low price from April 11 at $92.93 will be needed to keep the bias from getting much more negative. The price has not traded below $92.93 since February 25.
EU News
European major indices closed the day with declines across the board
- Declines are led by the German DAX which fell -1.16%
The major stock indices in Europe close day with declines across the board. The declines are led by the German DAX which fell -1.16%.
A look at the final numbers shows:
- German DAX, -149.15 points or -1.16%
- France’s CAC -43.98 points or -0.73%
- UK’s FTSE 100 -53.47 points or -0.74%
- Spain’s Ibex -69.9 points or -0.87%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, -199 points or -0.93%
Other News
US continues to push for price cap on Russian oil
- Officials spoke with Chinese counterparts yesterday
The seemingly-crazy idea of refusing to insure oil tankers carrying Russian crude unless it’s deeply discounted continues to advance. A Treasury official spoke with a Chinese counterpart yesterday and appeared to get some traction. Today’s the Treasury’s Adeyemo said the next step to pressure Russia on the Ukraine war is imposing the price cap.
Ultimately, such a scheme would certainly strand crude in Russia, leaving less supply for the world. That would inevitably push prices up.
Cryptocurrency News
The US Treasury is seeking comment on the risks and opportunities posed by cryptocurrency
Posting as an ICYMI.
Treasury Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Nellie Liang statement included:
“For consumers, digital assets may present potential benefits, such as faster payments, as well as potential risks, including risks related to frauds and scams”