North America News
S&P 500 Hits Record Close as Major Indices End at Session Highs
The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high on Thursday, capping off a day of strong market performance across major indices. The broad-market benchmark rose 32.34 points (+0.53%) to end at 6,118.73, surpassing its previous record close of 6,099.97 set on December 6. This marked a significant milestone for the index, which also hit an intraday high of 6,118.73.
Key Market Highlights
- S&P 500 Index: Gained 0.53% to close at a record 6,118.73, breaking both its previous record close and intraday high.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Led percentage gains, climbing 408.34 points (+0.92%) to end at 44,565.07, as investors favored blue-chip stocks.
- NASDAQ Composite Index: Recovered from early losses, rising 44.34 points (+0.22%) to close at 20,053.68.
- Russell 2000 Index: Advanced 10.87 points (+0.47%) to end at 2,314.59, signaling resilience in small-cap stocks after a brief dip in momentum.
Sector and Stock Performances
- The S&P 500’s record-breaking session was fueled by strength in energy, technology, and financial sectors, with tech giants continuing to drive gains.
- The NASDAQ struggled early in the session but recovered to close in positive territory, buoyed by late-day rallies in growth stocks.
- The Dow benefited from strong performances in industrials and financials, giving it the day’s largest percentage gain.
The US treasury auctions $20B of 10 year TIPS at a high yield of 2.243%
- Wi level at 2.232%
- High yield 2.243%
- WI 2.232%
- Tail 1.1 bps
- Bid to cover 2.48X vs 6 month average of 2.41X
- Directs 16.7% vs 18.5% average
- Indirects 66.51% vs 71.8% average.
US initial jobless claims 223K vs 220K estimate
- The initial and continuing claims for the current week
- Prior week initial claims 212.75M
- Initial jobless claims 223K vs 220K estimate. Highest to the 1st week of December 2024
- 4-week MA of initial jobless claims 213.50K vs 212.75K last week
- Prior week continuing claims 1.859M revised to 1.853M
- Continuing claims 1.899M vs 1.862M estimate. The Continuing claims have not been above the 1.900M in 30-weeks
- 4-week MA of continuing claims 1.866M vs 1.865M last week.
Trump: Zelensky told me he’s ready to make a deal
- Trump says he wants to meet immediately with Putin
Trump said earlier today that he wants the war in Ukraine to end.
Reuters also had an interesting report today citing “five sources with knowledge of the situation” that Putin is concerned about distortions in Russia’s wartime economy.
That has contributed to the view within a section of the Russian elite that a negotiated settlement to the war is desirable, according to two of the sources familiar with thinking in the Kremlin.
There is also this line:
Putin believes key war goals have already been met, including control of land that connects mainland Russia to Crimea, and weakening Ukraine’s military, said one of the sources familiar with thinking in the Kremlin.
Highlights: Trump’s speech from Davos as he comments on crypto and tariffs
- Some strong comments from the President
- Repeats talking points about a ‘golden age’ and ‘revolution of common sense’
- Biden totally lost control
- Total gov’t spending is $1.5 trillion higher than projected when I left office
- “It was the highest inflation in the history of our country”
- I terminated the “green new scam”
- We’re going to let people buy the car they want to buy
- The US has the largest amount of oil of any country on earth and we’re going to use it
- We will be the world capital of AI and crypto
Bitcoin rallied on his comment about being the world capital of crypto.
- Congress will pass the largest tax cut in American history
- If you don’t make your product in America, you will pay a tariff
- Economic conference is soaring like we’ve never seen
- I’m going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the price of oil
- If the price of oil came down, the Russia-Ukraine war will end immediately
- With oil prices down, I will be asking that interest rates drop immediately
- I’m going to ask all NATO nations to increase defense spending to 5%
Trump is taking questions after his speech:
- Europeans are very frustrated with the time it takes to get things approved
- EU treats the US very badly
- They don’t take our farm products and they don’t take our cars
- We will do something about our trade deficit with the EU
- I would like to see rapid approvals on LNG
- Under emergency declarations I can expedite approvals
- We need double the energy we currently have in the USA
- AI power plants can fuel them with anything they want, they can use coal as backups
- We’re going to bring corporate taxes down to 15% if you make your product in the USA
- We are going to be demanding respect from other nations, including Canada. We don’t need them to make our cars, we don’t need their lumber, their oil and gas
- We really need to stop that war in Ukraine
- All we want is fairness from China. We’ve been having massive deficits with China
- China and Russia were open to de-nuclearlization in my last term
- Ukraine is ready to make a deal
- Far more people are dying in Ukraine than have been reported
Trump will sign an executive order related to AI (and crypto)
- It was a bit of a mystery what today’s executive order would be about
We will await the details but an aide cited by Reuters said one of the orders is in regards to establishing a commission on science and technology.
Update: President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order establishing a Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets to develop a framework for crypto.
Canada November retail sales 0.0% vs +0.2% expected
- Canadian November 2024 retail sales data and the preliminary December numbers
Canadian retail sales painting a mixed picture in today’s report with November disappointing but the advance December numbers showing a strong climb.
After a flat reading in November, the advanced December reading was up 1.6%.
- Prelim November estimate was unchanged
- October sales were +0.6%
- Retail sales ex-autos -0.7% vs +0.1% expected
- Prior ex-autos were +0.1% (revised to -0.1%)
- Core sales -1.0%
- December advanced sales +1.6%
Tesla is increasing prices in Canada
- From 1 February
Tesla Canada prices on the rise, from February 1:
- Model 3 prices will increase by up to CAD 9000
- Model Y prices will increase by up to CAD 4000
- Both Model S & Model X prices will increase by up to CAD 4000
Stellantis says its not moving 1500 jobs from Canada to the US
- Volatile situation this, take care
A report on Bloomberg TV claimed that car maker Stellantis will move 1,500 jobs from Canada to the US
Stellantis in both Canada and the US have said this is not correct.
Commodities News
Crude oil settled at $74.62
- Down -$0.82 or -1.09%
The price of crude oil is settling at $74.62. That is down $0.82 or -1.09% on the day.
Technically, the price fell below its 200-day moving average at $75.01 going back to January 8, the high price stalled against that level and then broke above it on January 10. The last two days have seen buyers lean against the MA level.
EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -1017K vs -1645K
- Energy inventories for the week ending January 17, 2025
- Prior was -1962K
- Gasoline +2332K vs +2281K expected
- Distillates -3070K vs +283K expected
- Refinery utilization -5.8% vs +0.8% expected
Saudi Arabia Aims to Boost U.S. Investments by $600 Billion
- Saudi Crown Prince spoke on the phone with Trump
Saudi Crown Prince Discusses Trade Expansion with President Trump
- Saudi Arabia Aims to Boost U.S. Investments by $600 Billion
- Crown Prince Sees Trump-Era Reforms Driving Economic Growth
Europe News
European shares close higher led by Spain’s Ibex
- Spain’s Ibex is up 0.92%
- German Dax, +0.74%. The price is up 7.55% this year, and closed at a new record.
- France’s CAC +0.70%. The price is up 6.94% this year and closed at the highest level since June 2024
- UK FTSE 100, +0.23%, The price is up 4.80% this year, and closed at a new record level
- Spain’s Ibex, +0.92%. The price is up 3.42% this year.
- Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.72%. The price is up 5.64% this year.
Eurozone January flash consumer confidence -14.2 vs -14.2 expected
- Eurozone January consumer confidence data
- Prior was -14.5
France January business confidence 95 vs 94 prior
- Latest data released by INSEE – 23 January 2025
- Prior 94
- Manufacturing confidence 95
- Prior 97
- Services confidence 96
- Prior 96
UK January CBI trends total orders -34 vs -35 expected
- Latest data released by CBI – 23 January 2025
- Prior -40
ECB’s Escriva: We still have restrictive policy
- Remarks by ECB policymaker, Jose Luis Escriva
- We need to move to a neutral stance
Asia-Pacific & World News
China says willing to work with US to promote stable development of trade ties
- Remarks by the Chinese commerce ministry
- Tariff measures are not good for China, US, and the rest of the world
- China willing to work with US to promote stable and healthy development of economic, trade ties
China to channel “hundreds of billions of yuan” annually from insurers into equities
- Recapping this news from China today to support stock markets
China has unveiled a major initiative to channel hundreds of billions of yuan annually from state-owned insurers into equities, marking the latest effort by authorities to stabilize and support the country’s stock markets.
Wu Qing, head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), announced that in the first half of 2025, insurers will be required to invest at least 100 billion yuan ($13.75 billion) in long-term stock holdings.
- the regulator will encourage both state-owned and commercial insurers to allocate 30% of new annual premiums into A-shares
- mutual funds will also be urged to boost their tradable A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years
The initiative extends beyond direct investments, with fund managers encouraged to expand equity fund offerings, reduce fund sales fees, and promote exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to attract more capital into the market.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1708 (vs. estimate at 7.2896)
- PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.
PBOC injects 480 billion yuan via 14-day reverse repos at 1.65%
340bn yuan mature today
PBOC says it’ll provide liquidity tools to fund share purchases “at proper time”
- Plenty of stock market supportive policies out of China today
An official at the People’s Bank of China has gotten in line with supportive comments today
- says will expand the scope and increase the scale of liquidity tools to fund share purchases at proper time
- will further improve connect schemes, expedite cross-border investment to improve attractiveness of china stocks
China official says insurance firms still have room to increase their market investment
- China vice fin min – Large state-owned commercial insurance companies still have room to increase their capital market investment.
China vice finance minister
- Large state-owned commercial insurance companies still have room to increase their capital market investment.
Chinese official says 100s of billions of yuan to flow into shares every year from pensions
- China announced pension funds to increase investments in domestic equities
The head of China’s securities regulator (Chairman of the CSRC Wu Qing) says
- there will be at least hundreds of billions of yuan in new long-term capital for A-shares every year from state-owned insurance companies.
- A pilot scheme allowing insurers to buy stocks will be implemented in the first half of 2025, with an initial scale of at least 100 billion yuan.
New Zealand to ease foreign investment rules in bid to boost economy
- NZ to loosen foreign investment regulations to attract international capital,
New Zealand will loosen foreign investment regulations to attract international capital, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced on Thursday (New Zealand time).
The move is part of his government’s strategy to stimulate economic growth and create jobs amid a weakened economy. The country slipped into recession in the third quarter of 2024, with economic activity contracting more than expected.
In his State of the Nation address, Luxon outlined plans to establish Invest New Zealand, a new initiative within the government’s international economic development agency, designed as a one-stop shop for foreign investors. Luxon:
- “Inspired by successful models in Ireland and Singapore, Invest New Zealand will streamline investment processes and offer tailored support to overseas investors”
Japanese December exports smash higher than expectations – but not imports
- Japan trade balance data for December 2024
Japan’s December exports rose 2.8% year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Finance (MOF), exceeding the poll forecast of +2.3%.
- prior was 3.8%
Japan’s December imports increased 1.8% year-on-year, below the poll estimate of +2.6%
- prior was -3.8%
Japan recorded a December trade surplus of 130.9 billion yen, significantly outperforming the expected 53.0 billion yen deficit
Japan’s December exports to Asia grew 5.8% year-on-year
- to China declined 3% year-on-year
- to the U.S. fell 2.1% year-on-year
- to the EU edged up 0.5% year-on-year
South Korea Q4 economy suffered from weak consumer & business spending, political turmoil
- South Korean Q4 2024 GDP came in at a disappointingly weaker than expected 1.2% y/y
The Wall Street Journal (gated) has followed up with a summary. High(low)lights:
- weak consumer spending
- weak business spending
- political turmoil … martial-law attempt
- sluggish domestic demand
- private consumption weakened
- construction investment remained in contraction
- exports edged up on demand for semiconductors and other information-technology goods
South Korean Q4 2024 economic growth has come in weaker than expected
- +0.1% q/q (expected +0.2%) and +1.2% y/y (expected +1.4%)
The preliminary reading for 2024 Q4 GDP from South Korea is not as strong as was expected.
+0.1% q/q
- expected +0.2%, prior +0.1%
+1.2% y/y is a big tumble from Q3
- expected +1.4%, prior +1.5%
The Bank of Korea estimates that GDP growth over 2024 as a whole will be +2% y/y.
Crypto Market Pulse
Bitcoin spikes higher on “Big things are coming” comment from influential Senator.
- What next technically for the granddaddy of the digital currencies
The price of bitcoin spiked higher after Senator Lummis – a bitcoin advocate – tweeted that “Big things are coming”.
The price spiked above the 100 and 200 hour MAs in the process (see blue and green lines on the chart below). Staying above those MAs will keep the buyers in firm control going forward.
The Day’s Takeaway
