North America News
Major US Stock Indices Extend Winning Streak
US stocks closed higher for a fifth straight session. The NASDAQ led with a gain of 0.65 percent. Despite the late-month rebound, the NASDAQ still finished November down 1.51 percent, its first monthly decline since March. The S&P ended the month up 0.13 percent and the Dow rose 0.32 percent.
For Friday’s session, the Dow added 289.30 points or 0.61 percent to close at 47,716.42. The S&P gained 36.48 points or 0.54 percent to finish at 6,849.09. The NASDAQ rose 151 points or 0.65 percent to end at 23,365.69.
Performance across major names was mixed this month. Nvidia had its weakest month since March with a drop of 12.6 percent. Meta rebounded 9.04 percent this week, leaving the stock nearly flat for November at down 0.0617 percent. Alphabet gained 13.87 percent. Microsoft fell 5.0 percent, Amazon declined 4.05 percent, AMD dropped 15.11 percent, Broadcom rose 9.02 percent, and Tesla fell 5.78 percent.
Other notable losers included Raytheon at down 36.14 percent, Super Micro Computer at down 35.76 percent, Strategy at down 35.66 percent, Celsius at down 33.35 percent, Roblox at down 29.00 percent, Trump Media at down 27.66 percent, Oracle at down 26.66 percent, DoorDash at down 25.44 percent, Nebius NV at down 24.12 percent, and Arm at down 21.17 percent.
Winners for the month were led by Biogen at up 23.14 percent, Merck at up 21.09 percent, Alphabet A at up 16.61 percent, Marriott at up 15.84 percent, Western Digital at up 15.53 percent, Southwest Airlines at up 13.60 percent, First Solar at up 12.91 percent, and FedEx at up 10.42 percent.
Canada Q3 GDP
Canada delivered a major upside surprise in Q3. GDP rose at a 2.6 percent annualized pace, crushing the 0.5 percent expectation and swinging sharply from the revised 1.8 percent drop in Q2. Quarter on quarter growth came in at 0.6 percent after a 0.5 percent decline.
September GDP rose 0.2 percent as expected. The preliminary read for October shows a 0.3 percent fall. The Bank of Canada projected 0.5 percent for Q3, so this beat gives the central bank room to stay put and ignore calls for further cuts.
StatCan said: “the rise in the third quarter was driven by a strengthening trade balance, as imports dropped and exports edged up. Increased capital investment was driven by government capital spending, as business investment was flat. Overall growth was dampened by declines in household and government final consumption expenditures as well as a slower accumulation of business inventory.”
Commodities News
Gold Market: Fundamental and Technical Update
Gold remains supported by softer US labour data and growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Traders are waiting for the next round of Fed communication and the upcoming NFP and CPI prints. A dovish tone should lift gold. A hawkish reset would likely spark another pullback.
From a bigger-picture view, falling real yields and a Fed that reacts dovishly to weaker data keep gold in an uptrend. Short term, any hawkish repricing could cap gains.
Daily chart: Price is pushing toward the 4245 high. Sellers are likely active near that zone, aiming for a move back toward 3887 if resistance holds. Buyers need a clear break above 4245 to drive a new leg higher.
4-hour chart: Gold has broken above 4150, a major resistance area. This opens room for a test of 4245. Buyers are expected to defend pullbacks above support. Sellers need price to fall back under the broken zone to target the trendline near 4080.
1-hour chart: Momentum remains pointed at 4245. Buyers will keep leaning in unless the market breaks lower, which would shift attention back to the 4080 region.
WTI Rises on Peace Efforts and Ahead of OPEC Plus
WTI traded near 59.30 dollars on Friday, up about 0.50 percent as investors monitored diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine. Any meaningful agreement could eventually ease sanctions on Russian crude, though any increase in supply would unfold slowly and depend on the durability of a peace framework.
President Putin signaled that proposals delivered by US President Donald Trump could guide future security arrangements. President Zelenskiy said Ukrainian and US officials will meet this week to advance the Geneva framework aimed at stabilizing conditions and establishing guarantees.
Attention is also turning to Sunday’s virtual OPEC Plus meeting. The group is expected to keep its freeze on production increases in early 2026 and may broaden discussions to long-term capacity planning.
Expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve have risen sharply. Markets now price an 87 percent chance of a 25 basis point move, compared with 39 percent a week earlier. The shift has weakened the US dollar and helped support dollar-priced crude.
Oil Outlook Ahead of OPEC Plus
OPEC Plus is expected to focus on adjustments rather than major policy changes at its upcoming meeting. Production targets are already set through late 2026, and the group of eight countries with voluntary cuts has confirmed no increase in output for Q1.
Peace speculation around Ukraine has been the bigger driver for markets, pushing Brent into the middle of its 60 to 65 dollar range. A strict quota decision against a member state risks another Angola-style exit, so small compromises, including a possible quota adjustment for Iraq, are on the table. The main goal is to preserve unity.
Silver Breaks Above 54 Dollars
Silver jumped from 50 to more than 54 dollars per ounce, outpacing gold and pulling the gold to silver ratio down to just over 77, the lowest this year. Expectations of Fed rate cuts and sharp inventory declines in Shanghai supported the move.
Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories are at a ten-year low, and Shanghai Gold Exchange stocks are at the lowest level in more than nine years. China exported a record 660 tons of silver in October, which tightened supply outside the country. ETF inflows added another bullish tailwind, with more than 290 tons entering products tracked by Bloomberg recently. Year to date, ETF inflows exceed 3,500 tons.
Gold and Silver Rise on Fed Easing Hopes
Gold and silver prices continued to climb as markets lean toward more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Silver is approaching its mid-October record high near 54 dollars. Gold sits more than 200 dollars below its own record.
Declining registered silver inventories in China and rising expectations of looser policy give both metals room to extend gains. The gold to silver ratio has dropped to a fresh low for the year.
China’s Gold Imports Fall
China’s gold imports fell to a seven-month low as high prices slowed demand. Net imports from Hong Kong dropped to eight tons, the lowest since March. Gross imports slipped to 30 tons while exports rose to 22 tons.
Swiss shipments to China collapsed by over 90 percent in October. Over the first ten months of the year, net imports from Hong Kong are running 45 percent below last year’s levels, driven mostly by a sharp increase in Chinese exports.
India’s Russian Oil Imports Hit Five-Month High
India’s imports of Russian oil are set to reach 1.86 million barrels per day in November, the highest level in five months. Buyers appear to be front-loading purchases ahead of the US sanctions that took effect on November 21.
Refinery sources expect imports to drop sharply in December to around 600,000 to 650,000 barrels per day, the lowest in at least three years. Russia plans to redirect flows to China, though some Chinese refiners have also signaled lower demand due to sanctions pressure. Hopes for progress in Ukraine peace efforts have added volatility to oil prices.
Copper Surges on Supply Concerns
Copper pushed back above 11,000 dollars a ton as supply worries resurfaced during an industry conference in Shanghai. Analysts warned that uncertainty over US tariffs could keep US prices at a premium and trigger more stockpiling on COMEX. Raw material tightness remains a problem, with expectations that the concentrate market will run a deficit of about 500,000 tons next year.
A Canadian mining executive said smelter utilization has dropped to a record low near 75 percent due to feed shortages. China has kept output high, but plans for two million tons of new smelting capacity have been suspended. LME inventories have risen by roughly 100,000 tons since June. Commerzbank sees limited upside for prices in the near term.
Platinum Hits One-Month High
Platinum climbed to 1,650 dollars this week after China launched physically settled futures and options for platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. The contracts increase transparency, allow physical delivery in multiple forms, and are expected to draw interest from industrial users, automakers, the jewelry sector, and investors.
Daily inventory reporting and the ability to hedge in local currency are likely to boost market participation. Commerzbank says the new products helped fuel the recent rally, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts.
Europe News
European Indices Close Higher
European equities ended the day mostly higher and closed the week with strong gains. Italy’s FTSE MIB led Friday’s move with a rise of 0.32 percent.
Weekly performance was firm across the board: the DAX gained 3.19 percent, the CAC rose 1.75 percent, the FTSE 100 added 1.90 percent, Spain’s Ibex jumped 3.47 percent, and Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 1.63 percent.
ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
The ECB’s latest consumer survey shows inflation expectations nudging higher. Perceived inflation over the past year stayed at 3.1 percent, while expectations for the next twelve months ticked up to 2.8 percent from 2.7 percent.
The share of consumers who expect inflation to rise increased again, now at 85.6 percent. The 2.8 percent median expectation matches August and is the highest since May.
Germany November Preliminary CPI
Germany’s headline CPI rose 2.3 percent year on year, matching October and landing just below the 2.4 percent forecast. HICP came in hotter at 2.6 percent, up from 2.3 percent. Core inflation eased slightly to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent.
The data lines up with the steady state figures from the German regions released earlier. None of this shifts the ECB’s stance, which remains in wait-and-watch mode.
Germany November Unemployment
German unemployment rose by only 1,000 in November, beating expectations of a 5,000 increase. The jobless rate held at 6.3 percent.
The labour office noted that employment is stagnating and demand for labour remains weak. The numbers are stable, but the trend still shows a cooling labour market rather than a recovery.
Germany State CPI: November
Inflation across major German states held steady in November. Bavaria reported CPI at 2.2 percent year on year, unchanged from the prior month. North Rhine Westphalia came in at 2.3 percent, Saxony at 2.2 percent, and Baden Wuerttemberg at 2.3 percent, all unchanged.
With no movement in the regional prints, the national figure later today is likely to land near October’s 2.3 percent. The bigger question for markets is core inflation, which will shape the ECB’s next steps.
Germany October Import Prices Rise 0.2 Percent
Germany’s import price index rose 0.2 percent month on month in October, matching the prior reading and coming in above expectations for no change. Import prices fell 1.4 percent year on year, compared with a 1.0 percent decline previously.
Excluding energy, import prices rose 0.3 percent month on month and were unchanged from a year earlier. Energy prices continued to weigh heavily, down 15.1 percent year on year and 1.5 percent month on month.
Germany Retail Sales Disappoint with 0.3 Percent Decline in October
German retail sales fell 0.3 percent month on month in October, missing expectations for a 0.2 percent gain. The prior month’s reading was revised up to a 0.3 percent increase.
Food sales rose 1.2 percent, but this was outweighed by a 0.7 percent decline in non-food sales and a 0.6 percent drop in online and mail-order purchases.
Destatis noted that a new sampling method took effect retroactively from January 2024 and may lead to revisions across the data series.
France Q3 GDP Confirmed at 0.5 Percent Quarterly Growth
France’s national statistics agency confirmed that GDP grew 0.5 percent quarter on quarter in the third quarter, in line with the preliminary estimate and faster than the prior quarter’s 0.3 percent. Annual growth came in at 0.9 percent, unchanged from earlier figures.
Household consumption rose 0.1 percent as gains in energy and services offset weaker food spending. Gross fixed capital formation increased 0.5 percent, driven by stronger investment in information and communication and sustained demand for capital goods. Government consumption rose 0.5 percent.
Exports surged 3.2 percent, supported by a rebound in transport equipment shipments. Imports rose 1.3 percent. Foreign trade contributed 0.6 percentage point to growth, while inventories subtracted 0.4 percentage point.
France November CPI Softer Than Expected at 0.9 Percent
France’s preliminary November consumer price index rose 0.9 percent year on year, slightly below expectations for 1.0 percent and matching the prior reading. The harmonized HICP measure rose 0.8 percent, also below forecasts.
Food inflation edged up to 1.4 percent from 1.3 percent, while services inflation eased to 2.2 percent from 2.4 percent. The softer figures ease some concerns about sticky price pressures across the euro area.
Italy November Preliminary CPI
Italy’s preliminary November CPI rose 1.2 percent year on year, matching the prior reading but missing the 1.3 percent forecast. HICP slowed to 1.1 percent from 1.3 percent.
Core inflation dipped from 1.9 percent to 1.8 percent, keeping Italy aligned with the broader easing trend. The ECB’s main problems remain Germany and, to a lesser extent, Spain.
Italy Q3 Final GDP
Italy’s Q3 GDP was revised up slightly. Growth rose 0.1 percent quarter on quarter, compared with the initial estimate of flat growth and a prior decline of 0.1 percent. Year on year, GDP expanded 0.6 percent, beating expectations of 0.4 percent.
Istat said domestic demand added 0.2 percentage points to growth, split between household and NPISH consumption and fixed investment. Public spending was flat. Net trade helped with a 0.5 point boost, while inventories dragged by 0.6 points.
Agriculture grew 0.8 percent and services 0.2 percent. Industry slipped 0.3 percent. The ECB will not shift course on this report since its focus remains squarely on inflation.
Spain November Preliminary CPI
Spain’s headline inflation slowed to 3.0 percent from 3.1 percent, although that matched the prior month’s expected range. HICP rose 3.1 percent, above the 2.9 percent forecast. Core inflation edged up to 2.6 percent from 2.5 percent.
Along with Germany, Spain remains one of the stickier inflation spots in the euro area, complicating the ECB’s path toward rate cuts. Here is the trend in prices for Spain:
Switzerland November KOF Indicator
Switzerland’s KOF leading indicator edged up to 101.7 from a revised 101.5. The improvement is small but suggests a slightly brighter outlook, helped by firmer export sentiment. Even so, it does not give the SNB any reason to reconsider its stance as it remains close to returning to negative rates.
Switzerland Q3 GDP Contracts 0.5 Percent on Pharma Weakness
Switzerland’s economy contracted 0.5 percent in the third quarter, worse than expectations for a 0.4 percent decline and following a revised 0.2 percent gain in the previous quarter. Year-on-year growth slowed to 0.5 percent.
The Federal Statistical Office said the downturn was driven by the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, which saw a steep pullback following strong export-led gains earlier in the year. Services posted below-average growth and were unable to offset the decline in manufacturing.
Lagarde: Rates Are at the Right Level
ECB President Christine Lagarde said policy rates are at the right level and expressed optimism about France’s economic situation. The comments reinforce the message that the ECB is staying on hold.
S&P Warns UK Finances Still Vulnerable Despite Budget Measures
S&P Global Ratings says the UK’s fiscal position remains exposed despite revenue initiatives in the Autumn 2025 Budget. The agency described Britain’s finances as vulnerable and said this remains a key constraint on the sovereign rating.
S&P expects deficits to narrow gradually through 2028 but warned that risks rise later in the forecast horizon as spending demands intensify and political appetite for further consolidation wanes.
The agency says structural pressures and sluggish growth mean fiscal stress is likely to persist, keeping investor focus on the UK’s limited fiscal room.
Belgium Says EU Proposal on Frozen Russian Assets Could Complicate Peace Talks
Belgium’s prime minister has raised concerns that the EU’s plan to use frozen Russian state assets for Ukraine could undermine future peace negotiations, the Financial Times reported.
Prime Minister Bart De Wever outlined the issue in a letter to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. EU leaders failed last month to secure Belgian support for a 140 billion euro loan package for Ukraine.
Belgium holds a significant share of the frozen Russian assets, giving Brussels considerable leverage in the talks. The Commission plans to introduce revised legal language this week to address Belgium’s objections.
Asia-Pacific & World News
China Seeks Explanation from Malaysia Over US Trade Deal
China has requested a formal explanation from Malaysia regarding a recent trade agreement with the United States, saying the initial response from Malaysia’s trade body did not address its concerns.
The dispute centers on a rare earth minerals deal announced during a visit by former President Donald Trump in October. Beijing views the move as an attempt to dilute its influence over regional supply chains and restrict US access to strategic minerals.
China said it hopes Malaysia will consider its long-term national interests and handle the matter carefully. Beijing sees the deal as a step toward decoupling Southeast Asian supply networks from China’s orbit.
Vanke Bond Selloff Deepens After Shock Repayment Delay
China Vanke’s onshore bonds plunged to new lows on Friday after the developer sought its first-ever repayment extension on a domestic note. The move triggered panic selling and fresh trading halts, intensifying fears that one of China’s last large investment-grade developers is sliding deeper into distress.
Vanke’s 2027 yuan bond dropped 22.5 percent at the open to 31 yuan per 100 yuan of face value, prompting an automatic halt on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Three additional bonds were suspended as prices fell sharply.
The setback marks a dramatic turn for Vanke, long seen as a national champion with conservative leverage and steady sales. The protracted property downturn and tighter funding conditions following the government’s three red lines campaign have weakened liquidity across the sector. Falling home prices, delayed projects, and weaker presales have strained even the highest-tier developers.
Vanke’s financing pressures have mounted through 2024 and 2025 as sales deteriorated and offshore bonds traded at distressed levels. The request to delay repayment indicates conditions have tightened further and brings the company closer to the trajectory experienced by Evergrande, Country Garden, and Greenland.
The slump adds renewed pressure on China’s high-yield property market, weighs on CNH sentiment, and fuels calls for stronger official support to stabilize developer funding.
S&P Cuts China Vanke to CCC- as Liquidity Strains Deepen
S&P Global Ratings has downgraded China Vanke to CCC- from CCC and placed the developer on CreditWatch Negative, warning that the company’s plan to seek maturity extensions on onshore notes signals acute funding stress. The agency said the potential extension is tantamount to distress and reflects a material likelihood of default unless significant support emerges.
The downgrade follows a collapse in Vanke’s yuan bonds, including a 2027 note that fell to 31 per 100 and triggered a trading halt. The selloff underscores how one of China’s former blue-chip developers has been dragged deeper into the property sector’s ongoing credit crisis.
S&P says the company’s liquidity position has eroded to the point where maturities can no longer be met without relief from creditors or intervention from stakeholders.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0789 (vs. estimate at 7.0779)
- PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead. the Bank is slowing down the yuan appreciation.
- PBOC injected 301.3bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of 1.40%
- after today’s maturities the net drain is 73.7bn yuan
Australia October Private Sector Credit Beats Forecasts at 0.7 Percent
Australian private sector credit rose 0.7 percent month on month in October, above expectations for 0.6 percent. Business credit delivered the strongest contribution, outpacing already firm housing credit.
The data reinforce expectations that recent inflation readings will keep the Reserve Bank on hold for an extended period. The possibility of the next move being upward cannot be ruled out if price pressures persist.
Westpac Expects Stronger Q3 Momentum in Australia as Domestic Demand Surges
Australia’s economy is set to show a sharper pickup in activity through the September quarter, with Westpac projecting next week’s National Accounts to confirm the strongest domestic-demand pulse in more than a decade. The bank forecasts GDP growth of 0.8 percent quarter on quarter, lifting annual growth to 2.3 percent, slightly above the Reserve Bank’s updated trend estimate of 2.0 percent.
Westpac’s real-time Nowcast model points to a broadening recovery heading into year end. The bank expects domestic demand to have climbed 1.5 percent in the quarter, the largest rise since early 2012, with gains spread across multiple sectors.
Headline growth is likely to cool over the next few quarters as large one-off capital outlays, including aircraft purchases, fade. Removing those items leaves underlying quarterly growth near 0.6 percent, which Westpac describes as evidence of resilience beneath headline volatility.
The bank also sees productivity rising 0.9 percent over the year, a shift that would slow nominal unit labor cost growth to around 2.5 percent on a six-month annualized basis. Westpac says such a move would be encouraging for the Reserve Bank as it assesses the inflation path and the timing of any easing.
Westpac Says APRA’s High-DTI Cap Is Pre-emptive and Slightly Dovish for RBA Rates Outlook
Westpac says the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s new cap on high debt-to-income mortgages is a proactive step to contain emerging pockets of risk, though it is unlikely to bind across the broader market. The measure limits the share of new loans with total debt equal to six times or more of borrower income.
The bank says the cap will still allow lenders some flexibility but will create distributional effects that fall more heavily on investors and younger buyers who depend on higher leverage. Westpac argues the timing is strategic, given early signs of cooling in parts of the housing market.
The bank also notes that while macroprudential tools can restrain riskier lending, they are less effective in moderating housing-price dynamics. The rule’s introduction may slightly reduce the need for the Reserve Bank to lean on monetary policy to slow housing-related risks.
New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rises Sharply to 98.4 in November
New Zealand’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose 6.5 percent month on month to 98.4 in November, the highest level since June. The index had fallen 2.3 percent in October to 92.4.
The survey showed a five-point increase in the share of households saying it is a good time to buy a major household item, though the reading remains negative at minus 9 and has not been positive in more than four years.
Inflation expectations edged higher from 5.1 percent to 5.2 percent.
Goldman Warns Japan GDP Faces Risk from China Tourism Retaliation
Goldman Sachs economists say rising political tensions between Japan and China could weigh on Japan’s growth if they spill into tourism flows. The bank estimates that a sharp drop in visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong could trim GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage point.
The scenario draws on the 2016 to 2017 episode in which China curtailed tourism to South Korea during a missile-defense dispute. Goldman’s analysts say a 50 percent drop in Chinese and Hong Kong visitors would deliver a similar blow to Japan today.
Some of the impact would be cushioned by arrivals from other regions and a firm domestic travel market. After accounting for offsets, the expected drag narrows to about 0.1 percentage point, which still matters given Japan’s modest growth profile.
The bank says the analysis highlights how sensitive Japan’s post-pandemic recovery is to diplomatic relations with China, especially because tourism has become a key driver of service-sector strength.
Japan October Industrial Production Beats Expectations with 1.4 Percent Monthly Gain
Japan’s industrial output rose 1.4 percent in October from the previous month, beating expectations for a 0.6 percent decline. Year-on-year growth came in at 1.7 percent, above consensus for 0.8 percent.
Despite the strong headline result, manufacturers expect output to fall 1.2 percent in November and decline another 2.0 percent in December, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The projections suggest the October rebound may not last as global demand remains uneven and supply constraints linger.
The data point to mixed momentum heading into year end: a firm start offset by expectations of renewed weakness.
Japan Retail Sales Jump 1.7 Percent in October
Japan’s retail sales rose 1.7 percent year on year in October, the strongest increase in four months and above expectations for 0.8 percent. On a monthly basis, retail sales climbed 1.6 percent, the fastest pace in three months.
The prior readings were 0.2 percent year on year and 0.3 percent month on month.
Japan Unemployment Steady at 2.6 Percent in October
Japan’s labor market remained tight in October, with the jobless rate holding at 2.6 percent. Economists had expected a slight improvement to 2.5 percent.
The jobs-to-applicants ratio came in at 1.18, below forecasts for 1.20 and down from 1.20 previously. The data show labor conditions remain constrained even as hiring momentum shows signs of softening.
Tokyo November CPI Holds Above BOJ Target at 2.7 Percent
Tokyo consumer inflation rose 2.7 percent year on year in November, in line with expectations and just below October’s 2.8 percent. Core measures held slightly firmer.
CPI excluding fresh food increased 2.8 percent, above expectations for 2.7 percent and unchanged from October. CPI excluding food and energy also rose 2.8 percent, matching October and beating forecasts.
The figures signal inflation is still running above the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target. The next BOJ meeting on December 18 to 19 is expected to feature debate about a possible rate hike, but the outcome remains uncertain.
National CPI data will follow in about three weeks.
South Korea Industrial Slump Contrasts with Firm Retail and Services
South Korea’s October data show a sharp contraction in industrial production that was partly offset by strength in retail activity and stable service output.
Industrial production fell 8.1 percent year on year and 4.0 percent month on month. Retail sales rose 3.5 percent month on month, while service output slipped 0.6 percent.
The weakness follows a stronger September print, when overall output rose 1.0 percent month on month and 6.7 percent year on year, driven by a 1.8 percent gain in services. Retail sales fell 0.1 percent in that month.
The divergence underscores a two-speed economy, with manufacturing pressured by global demand and supply-chain challenges, while household spending and services show more resilience.
Crypto Market Pulse
XRP Holds Range as Whales Sell and Activity Drops
XRP continues to trade sideways between support at 2.15 dollars and resistance at 2.30 dollars. The token has held that range for four sessions, reflecting a stalemate between buyers and sellers.
Muted retail demand and a soft derivatives market have limited upside momentum. Broader macro uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December decision has added to the risk-off tone.
On-chain activity on the XRP Ledger remains subdued. Daily active addresses totaled about 19,200 on Thursday, far below the roughly 581,000 peak seen in mid-June. Activity has not reached 100,000 since June, weighing on adoption, engagement, and demand.
Whales continue to trim holdings. Addresses with 100,000 to 1 million XRP now hold 9.81 percent of supply, down from 10.06 percent on November 1. Holders of 1 million to 10 million XRP have dropped to 6.75 percent, down from 9.76 percent at the start of the month. The persistent decline in whale balances reinforces selling pressure. If the trend continues, a break below 2.00 dollars becomes increasingly likely.
Dogecoin Risks Further Decline
Dogecoin trades near 0.1525 dollars as selling pressure grows. Whale wallets holding 10 million to 100 million tokens have been unloading aggressively, dropping their share of supply from more than 16 percent in early October to 11.34 percent.
ETF inflows remain small, and the broader market is still risk off. If the trend continues, DOGE could slide toward the 0.10 level despite a technical buy signal on the MACD.
Monero Extends Its Rally
Monero trades above 400 dollars and is closing in on the 419 level, which has capped gains since May. Futures open interest has surged, with whales adding to long positions and pushing OI above 67 million dollars. The long to short ratio has climbed to roughly 56 percent.
Rising interest in privacy coins and strong derivatives activity have lifted confidence. If momentum holds, XMR could end the year at its highest level since 2021.
Crypto Market: Recovery Stalls
Bitcoin holds near 91,000 dollars, Ethereum trades above 3,000, and XRP sits above 2.21, yet all three struggle to build momentum as retail activity remains weak. The October 10 crash pulled more than 19 billion dollars out of the market and left investor participation subdued.
ETF inflows have been inconsistent, keeping institutional involvement muted.
Futures open interest remains soft across Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting confidence has not returned. The next two weeks before the Fed meeting will shape sentiment going into 2026.
KuCoin EU Wins MiCA License
KuCoin’s European arm secured a MiCA license in Austria, allowing it to offer regulated services across the entire European Economic Area through passporting. This comes days after the exchange registered with Australia’s financial intelligence agency, giving it legal approval to operate there.
The MiCA framework streamlines licensing across the EU, although regulators in some member states have faced criticism for moving too quickly. KuCoin says it serves more than 40 million users worldwide.
South Korea Expands Crypto Travel Rule
South Korea widened its travel rule to cover all virtual asset transfers, including those below one million won. The change strengthens the real-name system and requires verified identity for every transaction. Providers must now share sender and recipient information on all transfers.
The update also bans dealings with high-risk foreign exchanges and adds deeper background checks for crypto firms. Compliance costs will rise, and retail traders may feel more friction on smaller transfers. The move aligns South Korea with global anti-money laundering standards.
The Day’s Takeaway
North America
U.S. equities extended their winning streak to five sessions, with the Nasdaq rising 0.65% on Friday. Despite the late-month rebound, the Nasdaq ended November down 1.51%—its first monthly decline since March. Performance across megacaps was sharply divergent: Alphabet (+13.87%) and Broadcom (+9.02%) gained, while Nvidia (-12.6%), AMD (-15.11%), Tesla (-5.78%), Microsoft (-5%), and Amazon (-4.05%) declined. Notable laggards included Raytheon (-36.1%), Super Micro (-35.8%), and Oracle (-26.7%). On the upside, Biogen (+23.1%), Merck (+21.1%), and Marriott (+15.8%) led monthly gainers.
Canada delivered a major GDP upside surprise: Q3 growth surged at a 2.6% annualized pace, vastly exceeding the 0.5% forecast and reversing Q2’s contraction. Month-over-month GDP rose 0.6%, though preliminary October data showed a 0.3% dip. The strong print gives the Bank of Canada room to hold rates steady despite market expectations for further easing.
Commodities
Oil traded near $59.30/barrel, supported by renewed optimism around U.S.-Russia-Ukraine peace diplomacy. A potential deal could gradually ease sanctions on Russian crude, though supply impacts would be slow. Markets await the OPEC+ virtual meeting, where unity—not output changes—remains the priority.
Gold and silver advanced on growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Silver broke above $54/oz, its highest level since mid-October, driven by decade-low Shanghai inventories and strong ETF inflows (over 3,500 tons YTD). The gold-silver ratio fell to 77—the lowest of the year. Gold imports into China slumped to a seven-month low as prices deterred demand.
Copper climbed above $11,000/ton amid global supply tightness. Smelter utilization has fallen to ~75% due to concentrate shortages, and China suspended plans for 2 million tons of new smelting capacity. LME inventories have risen by 100,000 tons since June but remain insufficient to offset a projected 500,000-ton deficit in 2025.
Platinum hit a one-month high at $1,650, boosted by China’s launch of physically settled platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange—enhancing transparency, hedging, and industrial participation.
Europe
European indices closed the week higher across the board: DAX (+3.19%), CAC (+1.75%), FTSE 100 (+1.90%), Ibex (+3.47%), and FTSE MIB (+1.63%). Italy’s FTSE MIB led Friday’s session with a 0.32% gain.
Germany’s November CPI held steady at 2.3% YoY, matching October and slightly below forecasts. Core inflation eased to 2.7%. The data reinforces the ECB’s current stance. President Christine Lagarde reiterated that interest rates are “at the right level,” signaling continued policy stability and dashing near-term hopes for cuts.
Asia
China launched physically settled platinum and palladium futures, spurring liquidity and industrial engagement. Meanwhile, silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a 10-year low, and gold imports fell to a seven-month trough as high prices dampened demand. Swiss gold shipments to China plummeted over 90% in October.
India’s Russian oil imports surged to a five-month high of 1.86 million bpd in November as refiners front-loaded purchases ahead of U.S. sanctions. December imports are expected to plunge to ~600,000 bpd—the lowest in three years.
Crypto
The crypto market remains in a risk-off stalemate. Bitcoin holds near $91,000, Ethereum above $3,000, and XRP in a tight range between $2.15–$2.30—but momentum is absent. Retail participation remains depressed following the October 10 crash that wiped out ~$19B in value.
XRP on-chain activity is critically low: only ~19,200 daily active addresses vs. 581,000 in June. Whale selling continues across major tokens. Dogecoin faces downside risk toward $0.10 as large holders reduce exposure. In contrast, Monero (XMR) trades above $400, approaching $419 resistance, with futures open interest surging above $67M on rising privacy-coin demand.
Regulatory developments include KuCoin EU securing a MiCA license in Austria, enabling EEA-wide operations, and South Korea expanding its crypto travel rule to cover all transfers—increasing compliance burdens and identity verification requirements.
