Daily Market Roundup

North America News

U.S. Stock Market Wrap-Up: Mixed Close

The major U.S. stock indices ended Wednesday’s session with mixed results, as investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report, which was expected to be a key market driver.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -186.87 points (-0.43%) to 43,434.29
• S&P 500: +0.92 points (+0.02%) to 5,956.17
• Nasdaq Composite: +48.88 points (+0.26%) to 19,075.26
• Russell 2000 (Small Caps): +4.10 points (+0.19%) to 2,174.18

The Dow underperformed, dragged lower by weakness in industrial and energy stocks, while the Nasdaq edged higher as investors looked to tech earnings for direction. The S&P 500 was flat, reflecting a cautious trading environment as traders awaited key economic data and guidance from major corporations.

Earnings Recap: Key Companies Report Results

Several high-profile companies released Q4 earnings results, with mixed performances across sectors:

1. eBay (EBAY) – Beats Estimates

• Revenue: $2.6B (vs. $2.57B expected)
• GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume): $19.3B
• Adjusted Net Income: $607M (vs. $579.8M expected)
• Adjusted EPS: $1.25 (vs. $1.20 expected)
• Q1 2025 Outlook:
  • Revenue: $2.52B–$2.56B
  • EPS: $0.98–$1.02
  • Adjusted EPS: $1.32–$1.36

2. Teladoc Health (TDOC) – Revenue Beats, Profit Misses

• Revenue: $640.5M (vs. $639.6M expected)
• Net Loss: -$48.4M
• EPS: -$0.28
• Adjusted EBITDA: $74.8M (vs. $82.2M expected)
• FY 2025 Outlook:
  • Revenue: $2.47B–$2.58B
  • EPS: -$1.10 to -$0.50
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $278M–$319M

3. C3.ai (AI) – Misses Expectations

• Revenue: $13.1M (vs. $98.1M expected)
• Net Loss: -$80.2M
• EPS: -$0.62
• Operating Loss: -$87.6M
• Q4 Outlook:
  • Revenue: $103.6M–$113.6M
  • Adjusted Operating Loss: -$40M to -$30M

4. Paramount Global (PARA) – Weak Quarter

• Adjusted EPS: -$0.11 (vs. $0.12 expected)
• Revenue: $7.98B (vs. $8.09B expected)
• Paramount+ Subscribers: 77.5M

5. Snowflake (SNOW) – Strong Growth

• Q4 Product Revenue: $943.3M
• Product Gross Profit: $670.1M
• Operating Loss: -$386.7M
• Q1 Outlook:
  • Product Revenue: $955M–$960M

6. Salesforce (CRM) – Beats on EPS, Just Misses Revenue

• Q4 Revenue: $10B (just below $10.04B expected)
• Adjusted EPS: $2.78 (vs. $2.61 expected)
• FY 2025 Outlook:
  • Revenue: $40.5B–$40.9B
  • EPS: $6.95–$7.03
  • Adjusted EPS: $11.09–$11.17
  • Operating Margin: 21.6%, Adjusted 34%

Nvidia (NVDA) Q4 & FY 2025 Financial Results – A Blockbuster Quarter

Chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) crushed earnings expectations, with record revenues and strong AI demand fueling growth.

Key Q4 2025 Financial Metrics:

• Revenue: $39.3B (+12% QoQ, +78% YoY)
• GAAP Net Income: $22.1B (+14% QoQ, +80% YoY)
• GAAP EPS: $0.89 (+14% QoQ, +82% YoY)
• Non-GAAP EPS: $0.89 (+10% QoQ, +71% YoY)
• Gross Margin: 73.0% (down 1.6 pts QoQ, down 3.0 pts YoY)
• Operating Income: $24.0B (+10% QoQ, +77% YoY)

Full-Year FY 2025 Highlights:

• Revenue: $130.5B (+114% YoY)
• GAAP EPS: $2.94 (+147% YoY)
• Non-GAAP EPS: $2.99 (+130% YoY)
• Gross Margin: 75.0% (+2.3 pts YoY)

Business Segment Performance:

1. Data Center (AI & Cloud Computing)

• Q4 Revenue: $35.6B (+16% QoQ, +93% YoY)
• Full-Year Revenue: $115.2B (+142% YoY)

2. Gaming (GeForce GPUs & Consoles)

• Q4 Revenue: $2.5B (-22% QoQ, -11% YoY)
• Full-Year Revenue: $11.4B (+9% YoY)

3. Automotive & Robotics

• Q4 Revenue: $570M (+27% QoQ, +103% YoY)
• Full-Year Revenue: $1.7B (+55% YoY)

4. Professional Visualization

• Q4 Revenue: $511M (+5% QoQ, +10% YoY)
• Full-Year Revenue: $1.9B (+21% YoY)

Guidance & Market Outlook:

Q1 FY26 Guidance:

• Revenue: $43B (vs. ~$41.5B expected, +/-2% variance)
• GAAP Gross Margin: 70.6% (+/-0.5%)
• Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 71.0% (+/-0.5%)
• GAAP Operating Expenses: ~$5.2B
• Non-GAAP Operating Expenses: ~$3.6B
• Tax Rate: 17% (+/-1%)

Key Takeaways: Why Nvidia’s Report Matters

🔥 Blowout earnings and guidance reinforce Nvidia’s AI dominance.
🔥 AI-driven Data Center revenue far outpaces expectations.
🔥 Gaming revenue decline a concern but not a deal-breaker.
🔥 Record-breaking AI partnerships with AWS, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle.
🔥 Stock reaction depends on forward guidance, AI chip demand, and margins.

Final Thoughts: Market Impact of Nvidia & Broader Economic Trends

1️⃣ AI remains the dominant driver of tech stock performance.
2️⃣ Tariffs, interest rates, and consumer confidence still present macro risks.
3️⃣ Despite market volatility, Nvidia’s earnings affirm the AI boom is far from over.
4️⃣ Investors will be watching upcoming economic data & Fed commentary for further market direction.

U.S. Treasury Sells $44B in 7-Year Notes at 4.194%

The U.S. Treasury auctioned $44B in 7-year notes, with the high yield at 4.194%, slightly below the 4.203% presale WI yield.

• Bid-to-cover ratio: 2.64.
• Primary dealers took 8.78%, direct buyers 25.16%, and indirects 66.06%.
• This marks the final Treasury auction for the month, with demand holding steady.

U.S. January New Home Sales Miss Estimates at 657K

U.S. new home sales for January came in at 657K, missing the 680K expected and well below the 734K recorded in December.

• Single-family home sales fell 10.5%.
• Months of supply increased to 9 months, up from 8 prior.
• Median home price rose 3.7% y/y to $446,300.

Higher mortgage rates and weaker consumer confidence continue to impact the U.S. housing market.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall 1.2% as Housing Market Cools

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.2% decline in mortgage applications for the week ending February 21.

• Market index: 212.3 (vs. 214.9 prior)
• Purchase index: 144.3 (vs. 144.0 prior)
• Refinance index: 572.5 (vs. 593.6 prior)
• 30-year mortgage rate: 6.88% (vs. 6.93% prior)

The initial boost in mortgage activity at the start of 2025 is now fading, reflecting a more subdued housing market.

Trump Delays Canada & Mexico Tariffs to April 2, Announces EU Tariff Plans

Former President Donald Trump confirmed:

• Balanced budget goal in a “reasonably short period,” possibly by 2026-2027.
• Selling “Gold Card” immigration passes for $5M to attract skilled workers, capped at 250,000 applicants (potential $1T revenue).
• No security guarantees for Ukraine, stating Europe will take responsibility.
• Tariffs on Canada & Mexico now set to take effect April 2, postponed from early March.
• New 25% tariffs on EU autos and other goods coming soon.
• “We do not need Canada’s lumber,” Trump remarked, signaling a tougher stance on trade.

Markets will be closely watching for EU responses, as retaliatory tariffs could escalate tensions.

Fed’s Bostic: Inflation Progress Made, But More Data Needed

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated:

• Inflation remains high, but the Fed has seen substantial progress.
• Believes inflation is on track toward the 2% target, but more data is needed.
• January’s inflation spike may be a temporary bump or a developing trend.
• Fed policy remains restrictive and needs to stay that way for now.

Bostic’s comments suggest the Fed remains cautious on rate cuts despite market expectations.

U.S.-Ukraine Investment Deal Full Text Released

(Summary – Full text available here)

Key Provisions:

• The deal covers infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises, beyond just minerals.
• 50% of Ukraine’s future natural resource revenues will be allocated to a U.S.-Ukraine investment fund.
• U.S. financial contributions will ensure long-term capital flow for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
• The agreement includes security guarantees, raising questions about its impact on long-term peace.

For full details at the link above

U.S. House Passes Trump’s Budget Plan, Advancing Tax & Border Policies

The Republican-led U.S. House narrowly approved Trump’s tax and border policy package, passing by 217-215.

• Key provisions:
  • Extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.
  • Increases border security & deportation funding.
  • Boosts military spending.
• One Republican opposed, while no Democrats supported the bill.

The bill now heads to the Senate, where it faces strong opposition.

Russia & U.S. Planning “Expert-Level” Talks, Kremlin Confirms

The Kremlin confirmed ongoing preparations for Russia-U.S. talks, though no date has been set for a Trump-Putin meeting.

• Ukraine President Zelenskyy heads to Washington later this week, likely to finalize a minerals deal.

Canada’s January Wholesale Trade Rises 1.8% Amid Positive Investment Outlook

Preliminary data shows Canada’s wholesale trade climbed 1.8% in January, based on a 59.1% survey response rate. The figure will be updated once full data is available.

• November and December load factors remained below 2023 levels.
• Investment intentions survey projects 5.5% growth in non-residential capital spending for 2025, with both public and private sectors contributing.
• However, survey was conducted before tariff announcements, meaning trade policy risks aren’t reflected.

Commodities News

Crude Oil Settles at $68.62 as Trump Ends Venezuela Deal

Oil prices closed lower on Wednesday, with WTI crude settling at $68.62, down $0.31 for the day.

• Low: $68.36, High: $69.28.
• Crude tested December’s low of $68.37, holding above key technical support.
• Potential downside target: $66.40-$66.91 swing area.

Fundamental drivers:

1. Trump announces full reversal of Biden’s Venezuela oil sanctions, ending a March 1 renewal deadline.
2. Tariffs set to proceed in April, raising concerns over lower demand.
3. U.S. crude stockpile draw (-2.3M barrels) provided some support, but rising distillate and gasoline inventories weighed on sentiment.

Markets will be watching for further updates on trade policy, as well as the potential for supply-side disruptions.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Drop by 2.3M Barrels, Defying Expectations

The EIA weekly report showed a crude oil drawdown of 2.332M barrels, compared to expectations of a 2.605M barrel build.

• Gasoline inventories rose by 369K barrels (vs. expected -849K draw).
• Distillates stockpiles surged by 3.908M barrels (vs. expected -1.488M draw).

The unexpected crude draw provided short-term support for oil prices, but higher gasoline and distillate inventories weighed on demand outlook.

European Natural Gas Prices Slide 6% Amid Storage Policy Debate

European natural gas prices dropped 6%, as utilities push to lower storage targets ahead of next winter.

• EU gas storage: 40% full (vs. 64% last year, and below the 5-year average of 51%).
• Germany’s utility firms are lobbying to reduce the November 1 storage target from 90% to 80%, easing pressure on gas reserves.
• The U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal also contributed to weaker demand expectations.

Milder weather and shifting storage policies are keeping gas prices under pressure.

WTI Oil Drops Below $70 Amid Russia-Ukraine Peace Hopes

WTI crude fell below $70/bbl, as markets factor in:

• Improving Russia-Ukraine peace prospects, reducing supply uncertainty.
• Lingering tariff concerns and weaker U.S. consumer confidence, fueling demand fears.
• API data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 600,000 barrels, contrary to expectations of a 2.4M build.

If official EIA data confirms the crude drawdown, it could provide some short-term support for oil prices.

Congo Weighs Cobalt Export Quotas to Boost Prices

The Democratic Republic of Congo is considering cobalt export quotas to stabilize prices as global supply outpaces demand.

• Cobalt prices have plummeted, as automakers shift supply chains.
• The Congolese government is debating limits on cobalt exports to reduce oversupply.
• No final decision has been made, according to sources cited by Reuters.

This could impact EV battery production costs globally.

Trump Directs Commerce Department to Review Copper Tariffs

President Trump signed an executive order instructing the Commerce Department to examine potential copper tariffs.

• Commerce Secretary Lutnick: “No exemptions, no exceptions—copper must come home.”
• The investigation will assess national security risks under Section 232.
• The review will cover raw mined copper, refined copper, alloys, and scrap.
• White House officials suggest tariffs over quotas for long-term industry protection.

Copper market volatility is expected, with prices already under pressure.

Chile Restores Power After Nationwide Outage Hits Copper Mines

Chile’s National Electricity Coordinator reported that a quarter of the nation’s power demand has been restored after a massive blackout.

• Key copper mines impacted:
  • Escondida (BHP Billiton)
  • Codelco operations
  • Antofagasta PLC
  • Anglo American’s Chile assets
• The government declared a state of emergency and imposed a curfew in affected areas.
• Authorities ruled out a cyberattack, attributing the failure to a northern power transmission line issue.

Full power restoration is expected by morning local time.

Private Oil Inventory Data Shows Unexpected Crude Drawdown

Ahead of official U.S. government data, the API inventory report showed:

• Crude: -640,000 barrels (vs. expected build).
• Gasoline: +537,000 barrels.
• Distillates: -1.109 million barrels.
• Cushing storage: -1.182 million barrels.

The unexpected crude drawdown could impact oil prices ahead of official EIA data.

Europe News

Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Falls to -24.7

Germany’s March GfK Consumer Sentiment dropped to -24.7, well below expectations of -21.4.

• Prior: -22.4 (revised to -22.6).
• Income expectations hit a 13-month low.
• Households’ willingness to spend declined, reflecting economic uncertainty.

France’s Consumer Confidence Hits Highest Since October

France’s February consumer confidence came in at 93, matching expectations.

• Prior: 92.
• Unemployment concerns rose, with the index hitting its highest level since April 2021.

BOE’s Dhingra: Global Trade Expansion Slowing, U.S. Tariffs Could Lift Dollar

Bank of England (BOE) MPC member Swati Dhingra commented:

• Forces that previously drove rapid trade expansion have weakened.
• Higher U.S. tariffs could strengthen the dollar, leading to imported inflation for the UK.
• UK’s trade shift with Europe has had limited impact on overall price stability.
• Inflation targeting remains critical in a supply-constrained world.

Dhingra’s comments reinforce expectations that higher U.S. tariffs could drive USD gains in the short term.

Asia-Pacific & World News

Tesla Begins Deliveries of Refreshed Model Y in China

Tesla has officially begun delivering the updated Model Y in China, following production that started on February 18 at the Shanghai Gigafactory.

Key upgrades include:

• Enhanced exterior design and interior comfort.
• Improved driving range.
• Advanced safety and intelligence systems.

This comes as Tesla faces rising competition from local EV makers like BYD, which recently overtook Tesla in global EV sales for Q4 2024.

China’s Vice Commerce Minister Meets U.S. Business Leaders on Tariffs

China’s Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen held discussions with U.S. business leaders to address concerns over tariffs, according to an announcement from China’s Ministry of Commerce.

• No details were provided on potential agreements or policy shifts.
• Comes amid growing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, particularly in technology and semiconductor exports.

This follows reports that the Trump administration may tighten restrictions on Nvidia’s AI chips and China’s semiconductor industry.

China Criticizes Canada’s Sanctions, Warns of Trade Disruptions

China’s Commerce Ministry strongly opposed Canada’s latest unilateral sanctions on Chinese firms, stating:

• The move violates international trade rules and threatens global supply chain stability.
• Urged Canada to halt “wrongful actions” immediately.
• China will take necessary measures to protect its firms’ legal rights.

This adds to rising tensions in global trade, particularly as the U.S. ramps up economic restrictions on China.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1732 (vs. estimate at 7.2526)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBOC injects 548.7bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 538.9bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 9.8bn yuan

Australia’s January CPI Steady at 2.5%, Matching RBA’s Target

Australia’s monthly CPI for January 2025 came in at 2.5% y/y, slightly below expectations of 2.6%.

• Prior reading: 2.5%
• Trimmed mean inflation: 2.8% y/y (vs. prior 2.7%)

This reinforces expectations that inflation is stabilizing within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2-3% target range.

Australia’s Q4 Construction Data Misses Expectations

Australia’s Q4 2024 Construction Work Done rose +0.5% q/q, falling short of the +1.0% expected.

• Prior reading: +1.6%

While this is a slowdown, inflation remains the key focus for markets, with investors awaiting more economic data before predicting further RBA moves.

Japan’s FX Diplomat Mimura: No Disparity Between Yen Moves & Economic Data

Japan’s top FX official, Masato Mimura, dismissed concerns over yen fluctuations, stating:

• No major gap between recent yen moves and Japan’s economic fundamentals.
• BOJ’s monetary policy signals reflect strong economic data and inflation trends.
• Rising import prices are partially driven by FX factors.

Mimura’s remarks suggest Japan sees no urgent need for FX intervention, despite the yen’s recent volatility.

Japan’s December Leading Index Rises to 108.3

Japan’s final Leading Economic Index for December was revised to 108.3 (vs. prior 107.8).

• Coincident Index: 116.4 (vs. prior 115.4).
• Growth momentum remains bumpy, with no major trend shifts in sight.

Japan Post Plans $4 Billion Share Sale in Japan Post Bank

Japan Post Holdings is preparing to sell a stake in Japan Post Bank worth approximately 600 billion yen ($4.02 billion).

• The sale would reduce Japan Post’s stake below 50%, increasing the bank’s operational flexibility.
• The move aligns with Japan’s corporate governance reforms aimed at increasing free-float shares.
• A final decision could come this week, with Japan Post Bank also planning a share buyback.

This follows a similar divestment in 2023, when Japan Post reduced its stake in Japan Post Insurance to 49.8%.

UBS: Bank of Korea’s Rate Cut Signals Broader Deflation Risks

A UBS report suggests the Bank of Korea’s recent rate cut reflects a wider trend of deflation risks in Asia.

• Weaker demand is counteracting cost pressures from trade disruptions.
• Asian central banks are prioritizing growth over inflation control, unlike the U.S. Fed and ECB.
• China may soon follow a similar easing path, with policy shifts expected in H2 2025.

Crypto Market Pulse

Bitcoin Drops to Lowest Since November, Testing Key Support at $86.5K

Bitcoin (BTC) is down 22% from its January peak, now trading at $84,650 after hitting a low of $83,365.

• Broke below $86,520, the 38.2% retracement of the August rally.
• 50% retracement support at $79,467, near the psychological $80K level.
• Three potential buy zones emerging, as BTC faces mass liquidations.

Contributing factors:

1. Bybit hack ($1.5B stolen in Ethereum tokens) – North Korea suspected.
2. “Risk-off” sentiment weighing on high-growth assets (e.g., TSLA, PLTR).
3. ETF outflows accelerating, signaling weakening institutional demand.

Analysts warn that Bitcoin often acts as a leading indicator for broader equity sentiment, meaning further declines could signal wider market weakness.

XRP Holds Fibonacci Support, While Dogecoin’s Uptrend Ends

XRP’s price holds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling a potential rebound.

• XRP peaked at $3.40 in January but has dropped 25% to $2.28.
• DOGE fell below the 61.8% retracement level, confirming its rally has ended.

Positive news for XRP bulls includes Brazil’s approval of the first XRP ETF, while U.S. regulators review similar proposals.

SEC Drops Uniswap Case, Marking Shift in Crypto Regulation

The SEC has officially closed its investigation into Uniswap Labs, giving a boost to UNI token trading.

• The case was dismissed without any enforcement action, marking a major win for DeFi.
• UNI’s trading volume surged 140%, though the token is still down 30% over the past month.
• Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams called for separate crypto regulations, arguing that DeFi should not be governed under traditional financial rules.

Regulatory Shift Under Trump Administration

• SEC’s crypto enforcement strategy is changing, with cases against Coinbase, OpenSea, and Robinhood also being dropped.
• This signals a more cooperative regulatory approach, possibly leading to new legislative frameworks for DeFi.
• Adams emphasized: “Decentralized technology and self-custody should be regulated differently from traditional finance.”

The crypto industry now has a rare opportunity to influence new regulations, but active participation will be needed.

Bitcoin Falls Below $89K, Down 20% From ATH as ETF Outflows Surge

Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $88,800 on Wednesday, following a drop to $86,050 the previous day.

• BTC has now fallen 20% from its all-time high (ATH) of $109,588 in mid-January.
• Institutional demand is weakening, as Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a record single-day outflow of $937.9 million on Tuesday.
• MicroStrategy’s latest BTC purchase (20,356 BTC) failed to lift sentiment, amid concerns over Trump’s tariff policies.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit New High

• Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $540M in net outflows last week, extending the previous week’s $580.2M withdrawal.
• Tuesday’s $937.9M outflow was the largest single-day withdrawal since ETFs launched in January 2024.
• If the trend continues, BTC may face further selling pressure.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Fails to Excite Markets

• K33 Research noted that MSTR’s BTC purchases have lost impact on market sentiment.
• As of Monday’s close, MSTR’s enterprise value stood at $73B, while its BTC holdings were valued at $45.6B.
• MSTR’s valuation multiple has dropped to 1.6x, the lowest since July 2024, signaling a potential slowdown in corporate BTC demand.

A K33 analyst warned:
“We’re seeing a clear drop-off in BTC demand, shrinking premiums, lower volumes, muted CME activity, and dwindling ETF flows. These factors favor a cautious, low-risk approach for now.”

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Could Drop to Low $80Ks

Standard Chartered analysts expect Bitcoin (BTC) to fall further, with a potential 10% decline bringing prices to the low $80,000 range.

• BTC has already broken below $90K, hitting a three-month low.
• Crypto market pressures are mounting, partially due to Solana’s meme coin-driven selloff.
• ETF outflows and investor caution are adding downward pressure.

Despite this, a drop in U.S. Treasury yields could provide eventual support for Bitcoin’s recovery.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

Stock Market Recap: Volatility, Mixed Close, and Nvidia’s AI Dominance

Major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow underperforming, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 stabilized ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Nvidia delivered record-breaking results, reinforcing AI dominance despite some concerns over declining gaming revenue and margin compression. Market sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical risks, tariffs, and economic uncertainty weigh on investor confidence.

Key Index Moves:

• Dow Jones: -186.87 (-0.43%) → Industrial stocks pressured by trade uncertainty.
• S&P 500: +0.92 (+0.02%) → Slight gain, but mostly flat.
• Nasdaq: +48.88 (+0.26%) → Tech sector holds up, driven by AI optimism.
• Russell 2000: +4.10 (+0.19%) → Small caps showing resilience.

Market Reaction to Nvidia Earnings:

• AI-driven growth fueled massive data center revenue.
• Stock expected to react positively, but margin concerns persist.
• Broader AI sector still red-hot, reinforcing demand for semiconductors and cloud computing.

Tariff Wars & Geopolitical Tensions: U.S. vs. China, EU, Mexico, and Canada

The Trump administration delays Mexico/Canada tariffs to April 2 but insists most China tariffs will stay. New tariffs on the EU, including a 25% tariff on autos, are coming soon, with possible retaliation from European nations. Commerce Secretary Lutnick signals aggressive action on copper tariffs, as the U.S. moves toward resource nationalism. Meanwhile, China’s Vice Commerce Minister met with U.S. business leaders to discuss tariff concerns.

Market Impact:

• Commodity markets fluctuating as China braces for trade uncertainty.
• U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal finalized, sparking energy & industrial sector reactions.
• Canada-China trade relations sour over Canadian sanctions on Chinese firms.

Bitcoin & Crypto: Massive Selloff, ETF Outflows, and Regulatory Shifts

Bitcoin dropped below $89,000, down 20% from its all-time high of $109,588. The largest Bitcoin ETF outflow ever ($937M) signals weakening institutional demand. MicroStrategy’s latest BTC purchase was poorly received, raising concerns about corporate adoption.

Regulatory Wins:

• SEC dropped the Uniswap case, signaling a major shift in crypto enforcement.
• DeFi regulation may see a separate legal framework, led by Uniswap’s CEO.

Key Risks for Crypto:

• Trump tariffs fueling broader risk-off sentiment.
• ByBit’s $1.5B hack added more selling pressure in altcoins like Ethereum and Solana.

Oil & Commodities: Supply Disruptions & Economic Concerns

WTI Crude Oil fell below $70 per barrel, driven by:

• Lingering demand worries amid weaker consumer confidence.
• Russian-Ukraine peace deal speculation, which could ease sanctions.
• U.S. crude inventories fell (-2.33M barrels), surprising analysts.

Copper Prices Reacting to Policy Shifts:

• Chile’s power outage disrupted global copper production, causing short-term supply concerns.
• Trump administration investigating copper tariffs, triggering volatility in industrial metals.

Gold Surges, Then Falls on Profit-Taking:

• Gold briefly hit $2,956 before dropping to $2,905 as investors booked profits.
• Weak U.S. consumer confidence and inflation fears initially boosted safe-haven demand.

Housing & Economic Data: Rising Risks of Stagflation?

• U.S. New Home Sales (657K) missed estimates (680K) → -10.5% MoM.
• Consumer confidence fell sharply to 98.3, lowest in eight months.
• Mortgage applications dropped again (-1.2%), with 30-year mortgage rates at 6.88%.

Warning Signs:

• Bank of America warns of stagflation risks due to Trump’s growth-negative policies (tariffs, deportations, and government spending cuts).
• Fed remains cautious on rate cuts, with Atlanta Fed’s Bostic saying inflation is still high.

Market Trends to Watch in the Coming Days

• Nvidia’s stock reaction & broader AI momentum → Can AI sustain market leadership?
• Next moves on tariffs (EU, Mexico, China) → Will global trade wars escalate?
• Crypto recovery or continued weakness? → Can Bitcoin hold support above $85K?
• U.S. economic data (PCE inflation report, jobless claims) → Fed rate cut expectations shifting?
• Oil market volatility & OPEC response → Will supply disruptions continue?

Final Thoughts: What Traders & Investors Need to Know

• Nvidia’s results reaffirm AI’s dominance, but market sentiment remains fragile.
• Tariff tensions continue to shake commodities, manufacturing, and trade.
• Crypto faces major tests with regulatory shifts & demand concerns.
• Stagflation risks creeping into economic forecasts, with consumer confidence faltering.
• Oil & metals volatility signals broader economic uncertainty.

Conclusion:

Investors should remain cautious amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Opportunities exist in AI, select tech, and defensive sectors, but risks are rising. Keep an eye on inflation data, Fed policy shifts, and global trade developments.