Daily Market Roundup

North America News

Wall Street Rallies for Third Day: S&P, NASDAQ Jump Over 2%

U.S. stocks extended their rebound for a third straight session, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite each gaining more than 2% on Thursday. The rally comes on the heels of Monday’s sharp sell-off and has pushed all major indexes higher heading into Friday’s close.

The NASDAQ led the day’s gains, rising 2.74%, powered by tech strength and upbeat corporate earnings. The S&P 500 added 2.03%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.23%.

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Major Index Closes

• Dow Jones: +486.83 points (+1.23%) at 40,091.40
• S&P 500: +108.93 points (+2.03%) at 5,484.79
• NASDAQ: +457.99 points (+2.74%) at 17,166.04

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Weekly Performance (so far)

• Dow Jones: +2.43%
• S&P 500: +3.83%
• NASDAQ: +5.40%

Both the S&P and Dow have now closed above their 200-hour moving averages for the first time since February—considered a bullish technical signal that could strengthen market sentiment.

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After-Hours Earnings Recap

🔹 Alphabet (GOOGL)

• EPS: $2.81 vs. $2.01 est. ✅
• Revenue: $90.23B vs. $89.2B est. ✅
• Dividend: +5% increase ✅
• After-hours reaction: +5.12%

Strong top and bottom-line results along with a dividend hike gave Alphabet shares a post-market boost.

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🔹 Intel (INTC)

• EPS: $0.13 vs. $0.00 est. ✅
• Revenue: $12.7B vs. $12.2B est. ✅
• Guidance: Disappointing ❌
• After-hours reaction: -3.82% to $20.67

Despite beating expectations, weaker guidance pulled Intel shares lower in after-hours trading.

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🔹 T-Mobile (TMUS)

• EPS: $2.58 vs. $2.46 est. ✅
• Revenue: $20.89B vs. $20.62B est. ✅
• Net Income: $2.95B
• Adj. EBITDA: $8.26B vs. $8.10B est.
• Free Cash Flow: $4.40B
• FY FCF Guidance: $17.5B–$18.0B

T-Mobile delivered a clean beat across the board with strong cash flow guidance.

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🔹 Gilead Sciences (GILD)

• EPS: $1.81 vs. $1.79 est. ✅
• Revenue: $6.67B vs. $6.81B est. ❌
• Product Highlights:
  • Veklury (COVID): $302M
  • Biktarvy (HIV): $3.15B
• 2025 Sales Guidance: Maintained
• EPS Outlook: Lowered to $5.65–$6.05 from $5.95–$6.35

While EPS beat, revenue fell short and forward earnings guidance was trimmed slightly.

U.S. Treasury’s 7-Year Auction Sees Tepid Demand

The U.S. Treasury sold $44 billion in seven-year notes at a high yield of 4.123%, slightly above the WI level of 4.121%. The auction produced a tail of 0.2 basis points, indicating weaker demand than expected.

• Bid-to-cover: 2.55x (vs. 2.67x 6-month average)
• Domestic buyers (directs): 25.44% (above average)
• International buyers (indirects): 59.3% (well below average)
• Dealers: 15.3% (above 9.7% average)

The strong domestic participation wasn’t enough to offset reduced foreign interest.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast Drops to -0.4% With Gold Adjustments

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model cut its Q2 growth estimate to -0.4%, factoring in updated gold export and import data. That’s down from a prior projection of -0.1%.

Without adjusting for gold, the model shows an even steeper contraction, with Q2 growth now forecast at -2.5%, down from -2.2% just days earlier. The data underscores how volatility in commodity trade—like gold—can heavily sway near-term growth models.

In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.5 percent on April 24, down from -2.2 percent on April 17. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.4 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.9 percent to 7.1 percent.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Dip to 4.02M, Lowest Since October 2024

U.S. existing home sales dropped to a 4.02 million annualized rate in March, missing expectations of 4.13M and marking the lowest reading since October 2024. The prior month was revised slightly higher to 4.27M.

Sales fell 5.9% after a 4.4% increase in February. Inventory rose to 1.33 million units, equal to a 4.0 months’ supply. The median home price was $403,700, up 2.7% YoY. First-time buyers held steady at 32%; all-cash sales slipped to 26% from 28%.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Falls to -5 in April

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index dropped to -5 in April, down from +1 in March, signaling a renewed slowdown in regional industrial activity. The composite index also slipped to -4 from -2, reinforcing concerns about persistent weakness in the sector.

The index had hit a year-low of -13 in February, and the brief March rebound now appears to have stalled.

Apple Hits Roadblocks Moving Manufacturing Gear from China to India

Apple is facing multiple setbacks in relocating manufacturing equipment from China to its Indian operations. The tech giant reportedly moved some subassembly lines back to China due to ongoing cost and quality control issues in India.

Geopolitical friction is also limiting Apple’s ability to use Chinese contractors within India, complicating its broader supply chain shift. Shares of Apple were down 0.37% in premarket trading at $203.85. The stock is currently testing key levels near the 38.2% retracement ($203.93) and 200-hour moving average ($204.36). A sustained break above both would shift momentum in favor of buyers; otherwise, a drop back toward the 100-hour moving average ($194.95) remains a risk.

U.S. Jobless Claims Hold Steady at 222K, Continuing Claims Decline

Weekly U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 222,000, matching forecasts. Last week’s figure was revised slightly higher from 215K to 216K. Continuing claims fell to 1.841 million, better than the expected 1.875 million and down from a revised 1.878 million the previous week.

The labor market remains stable despite growing macroeconomic uncertainties, suggesting that hiring activity hasn’t been derailed—at least not yet—by trade or policy risks.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Surge 9.2% in March, Powered by Transportation Spike

Durable goods orders in the U.S. jumped 9.2% in March, far outpacing the 2.0% forecast and marking the largest monthly increase since July 2024, when orders rose 9.8%. The unexpectedly strong figure was driven almost entirely by a massive surge in transportation equipment orders, which gained $26.5 billion (27%) to $124.6 billion, continuing a three-month streak of growth.

Durable goods orders have now risen for three consecutive months, with March’s performance highlighting how looming tariff risks may be prompting early purchases—particularly in high-value sectors like transportation.

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Breakdown by Category

• Durable Goods Orders (Ex-Transport): Flat at 0.0%, missing the +0.3% estimate and cooling from the 0.7% gain in February.
• Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Ex-Aircraft: Up 0.1%, slightly below the 0.2% expected, following a downward revision in February to -0.3% from -0.2%.
• Durable Goods Orders Ex-Defense: Soared 10.4%, compared to a typical monthly gain of 0.8%.

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Shipments and Inventories

• March durable goods shipments rose by $0.2 billion (+0.1%) to $293.0 billion, marking the fourth straight monthly gain.
• Primary metals shipments led the charge, up $0.2 billion (+0.8%) to $27.8 billion, their sixth increase in the past seven months.
• Inventories also continued to rise, gaining $0.5 billion (+0.1%) to $533.3 billion, the fifth consecutive monthly increase.
• Machinery accounted for much of the gain, up $0.2 billion (+0.2%) to $94.5 billion.

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Unfilled Orders

• Unfilled durable goods orders climbed $27.7 billion (+2.0%) to $1.43 trillion, up in eight of the past nine months.
• Transportation equipment was the main contributor again, with unfilled orders rising $28.1 billion (+3.1%) to $931.6 billion.

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Capital Goods Snapshot

Nondefense:

• New Orders: Exploded by $26.1 billion (+29.4%) to $114.9 billion
• Shipments: Fell $1.6 billion (-1.9%) to $86.1 billion
• Unfilled Orders: Jumped $28.8 billion (+3.4%) to $875.6 billion
• Inventories: Rose $0.7 billion (+0.3%) to $233.5 billion

Defense:

• New Orders: Dropped $1.3 billion (-9.4%) to $12.2 billion
• Shipments: Down slightly by 0.2% to $14.6 billion
• Unfilled Orders: Fell $2.4 billion (-1.1%) to $208.0 billion
• Inventories: Increased $0.3 billion (+1.1%) to $27.2 billion

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Outlook

The sharp rise in headline orders—mostly from transportation—highlights the volatile nature of durable goods data, especially in sectors tied to large-ticket items. The surge could also reflect front-loading of purchases amid tariff uncertainty, suggesting potential distortions in near-term demand.

These figures will be revised and expanded in the Factory Orders report due in the next couple of weeks. Until then, the March print stands as a notable upside surprise in a market clouded by trade risks and geopolitical uncertainty.

UBS Warns Trump’s Rate Cut Pressure Could Undermine Fed Credibility

UBS is cautioning that former President Trump’s renewed push for lower interest rates may damage the Federal Reserve’s independence and worsen existing economic uncertainty. In a note to clients, UBS analysts said the main drag on the U.S. economy is not high borrowing costs, but rather a surge in uncertainty.

“It’s not the level of rates that’s slowing things down,” the note said, “it’s a lack of confidence in the future.” Businesses and households are reluctant to invest or spend amid conflicting policy signals and concern over political interference in Fed decisions.

Trump to Meet Global Leaders in Rome, Mentions Russia, Iran, and Energy

President Trump announced he will travel to Rome to meet with world leaders and attend Pope Francis’ funeral. On foreign policy, he said both Russia and Ukraine want peace, and claimed Russia is not blocking a resolution. He also cited Norway’s involvement in de-escalation efforts and claimed energy prices are a key factor in peace talks.

Trump also touched on Iran, saying the U.S. is “doing very well,” and repeated his call for Federal Reserve rate cuts, criticizing the Fed as being behind the curve. He reaffirmed that tariffs remain on the table as negotiation tools, saying: “Some will be tariffed. We’ll set prices for deals.”

Fed’s Waller: Companies “Frozen” by Tariff Uncertainty, Layoffs Likely

Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg that businesses are essentially frozen due to rising uncertainty around tariffs. He said companies are holding off decisions and bracing for potential layoffs and rising unemployment.

Waller emphasized that it’s uncertainty—not high interest rates—that’s weighing on growth, and called for more fiscal discipline. He suggested that tariff-induced price hikes are likely to be one-time effects, and that cutting payrolls may become the first lever for firms facing higher costs.

The second half of 2025 will be key for assessing the full impact of tariffs. Waller reiterated that while the Fed aims to ignore political noise, policy decisions will depend on data—even if that risks reacting late.

Cleveland Fed Hammock: Uncertainty is weighing on businesses. Influences planning

• Beth Hammack speaks on CNBC

• Uncertainty is weighing on businesses. Influences planning on spending and employment
• Wish I had a crystal ball on implications on tariffs
• Cone of possibilities for economy are so wide.
• Does not have basecase right now. Is looking at snares for economy
• I would rather take our time on policy. Look at the data
• Fed needs to be patient
• Soft data is more concerning. Seeing good things in the hard data
• Fed will move quickly if they have to.
• When it is clear which way the economy is going, that is when the Fed will react
• It is the real data that the Fed is monitoring
• Watches markets for their impact on real economy
• Over recent weeks, markets clearly volatile, but functional
• There is a hangover from the pandemic were businesses don’t want to let their employees go. That may help to support the labor market
• Economy is very resilient
• Fed can move in June if data is clear about economies state
• Sell America trade should be monitored but could just be a rebalancing.
• The Fed is not steering the markets, but the economy
• Independent central banks deliver better outcomes. Markets recognize this

Fed’s Hammack says uncertainty a big issue in economy, causing businesses to pause

• Federal Reserve Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack says the bar is high for the Fed to step in to aid markets

Federal Reserve Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack:

• There has to be a high bar for Fed to step in to aid markets
• Market should set where term premium stands
• We have not seen the need for Fed market intervention
• ‘Incredibly high bar’ exists for Fed to step in
• Recent market troubles was risk transfer, markets were functioning
• Natural to see investors shift positions during volatility
• Fed job is not to tell markets what the right price is
• big uncertainty over the outlook continues to argue for the Fed taking it slow on monetary policy to see how the economy performs
• “This is not a good time to be pre-emptive” with monetary policy
• “This is a good time to watch and watch” and gather data to determine what the right course of action will be
• Supports ongoing quantitative tightening (QT), a slower drawdown pace will allow longer process
• Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk from $9T to $6.8T since QT began in 2022
• Money market liquidity still appears abundant
• Supported Fed’s recent slowdown in balance sheet drawdown
• Some volatility in overnight markets is not a bad thing
• Sees possible cases for return to Fed repos depending on market conditions
• There are costs for keeping Fed’s balance sheet too large
• Supports work to strengthen standing repo facility
• Costs of too-large balance sheet include market risk taking

Canadian Finance Minister: G7 United, But Tariff Tensions Still Simmer

Speaking from the G7 summit in Washington, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the G7 remains united overall, but divisions persist over tariffs. He emphasized Canada’s role in holding that unity together, while also pushing back against U.S. tariffs that continue to impact Canadian goods.

Champagne mentioned there was no time for a bilateral meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, but the two did interact during the summit. He warned that the current tariff regime is not only inflationary but could also weigh on global growth.

PM Carney Pushes Back: “We Decide What Happens Here”

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded directly to President Trump’s comments about not wanting Canadian-made cars, saying: “We decide what happens here.” Carney suggested Canada no longer sees its relationship with the U.S. as it once did and is under no pressure to strike a quick deal.

Adding to the rhetoric, it was revealed that Trump reportedly floated the idea of Canada as the “51st state” in recent phone calls. Meanwhile, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin criticized Trump’s trade policy, warning it’s eroding the U.S.’s reputation as a global brand of strength and stability.

Canada’s Election Outcome Could Shift CAD, ING Says

Canada heads to the polls on April 28, and markets appear to have priced in a Liberal majority win under PM Mark Carney, according to ING. As such, a Carney victory is unlikely to cause much movement in the Canadian dollar (CAD). However, a surprise Conservative win could trigger a CAD rally, ING notes.

Polling suggests the Liberals could win between 151 and 226 seats, with 191 as the central estimate—well above the 170 needed for a majority. ING’s USD/CAD forecast assumes a Liberal win, with the pair projected to reach 1.39 by end of Q2, then soften from Q4 as global trends shift.

Trump Threatens Higher Auto Tariffs on Canadian Imports

Donald Trump warned that his administration could raise the 25% tariff on Canadian-made cars, stating: “We don’t want cars from Canada.” He confirmed discussions with Canadian PM Mark Carney, calling the talks “nice,” and said both sides are working toward a new trade deal.

Trump added that the U.S. dollar was “a bit on the low side,” but he’s not considering changes to tariffs on auto parts. The comment comes ahead of Canada’s upcoming election and amid rising trade tensions between the two nations.

Commodities News

Gold Reclaims $3,300 as Trade Jitters and Yield Drops Fuel Demand

Gold surged back above $3,300, ending a two-day losing streak with a 1.5% gain as geopolitical uncertainty and falling Treasury yields reignited safe-haven demand.

At $3,338, gold is bouncing from a session low of $3,287. While Trump softened his tone on tariffs, China continues to demand a full rollback before resuming negotiations.

Yields dropped, and Fed speakers—including Beth Hammack and Christopher Waller—hinted at potential rate cuts later this year. Waller said “rate cuts could come from rising unemployment,” reinforcing the dovish pivot.

Technical outlook:

• Resistance: $3,386 (April 22 high), then $3,400, $3,450
• Support: $3,300, then $3,200 and $3,167
• 50-day SMA: $3,041

Traders now await further data and Fed commentary to confirm whether the gold rally can extend toward new record highs.

Oil Closes Up 0.84%, Still Trapped in Technical Range

Crude oil futures settled at $62.79, rising $0.52 or 0.84%, as the market remains stuck in a technical range amid uncertainty over OPEC+ supply plans and macroeconomic direction.

• High: $63.27
• Low: $62.01
• Key resistance: 100-hour MA at $63.04
• Key support: 200-hour MA at $62.20

The narrow consolidation suggests that traders are waiting on a catalyst—potentially geopolitical developments or inventory data—to trigger a decisive move.

Silver Pulls Back to $33.30 on De-escalation Hopes in U.S.-China Trade

Silver prices dropped to $33.30 from a three-week high of $33.70 as expectations of a U.S.-China trade resolution eased safe-haven demand. However, the potential deal could boost industrial demand, especially in EVs and electronics, where silver plays a key role.

The White House is reportedly considering slashing tariffs by 50%-65%, and China insists on full removal of unilateral tariffs before resuming talks. Silver’s 20-day EMA sits at $32.55, offering support, with resistance at $34.60. A daily RSI near 60 points to momentum neutrality, with a break higher indicating potential upside.

Copper Surges on Fed Confidence and Trade Deal Hopes

Copper prices are rising on improved risk sentiment as Trump signals readiness to cut tariffs, and reassures markets about Fed leadership stability. ING analysts say speculators added 33,352 contracts, bringing net longs to 98,765—a record since January 2018.

Additionally, supply constraints have added support after Peru’s Antamina copper-zinc mine was shut down following a fatal accident. Copper continues to benefit from its role as a bellwether for global economic growth, especially amid easing trade tensions.

Oil Drops as OPEC+ Considers More Output, Kazakhstan Pushes Back

Oil prices retreated Thursday as OPEC+ reportedly discusses a larger production hike for June, while Kazakhstan refuses to cut output to make up for past overproduction, according to Danske Bank analysts.

Internal divisions are eroding the group’s control over prices. If global growth falters or trade tensions reignite, analysts say the lack of a price floor could trigger a sharper decline in oil markets.

Europe News

European Stocks End Mostly Higher, Spain’s Ibex the Outlier

European equity markets finished Thursday on a broadly positive note, with most major indexes notching gains. The Spanish Ibex was the lone exception, slipping into negative territory.

Closing figures:

• Germany’s DAX: +0.49%
• France’s CAC 40: +0.27%
• UK’s FTSE 100: +0.05%
• Spain’s Ibex: -0.22%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.96%

Germany’s April Ifo Business Climate Index Beats Forecasts

Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose slightly to 86.9 in April, up from 86.7 and better than the 85.2 economists had predicted. Both the current conditions index (86.4) and future expectations (87.4) exceeded forecasts, reflecting cautious optimism.

The data follows stronger-than-expected PMI numbers, suggesting that while trade uncertainty remains, German business sentiment is holding up better than feared. The Ifo index and PMI tend to correlate closely, reinforcing the positive signal.

France April Consumer Confidence Flat at 92

INSEE reported that France’s consumer confidence index for April held steady at 92, in line with the previous month but slightly above the forecast of 91. While stable, the figure remains well below the long-term average of 100.

Confidence has failed to rebound meaningfully since the start of the year, with continued concerns around job security acting as a drag on household sentiment.

BOE’s Bailey: we see impact of tariff uncertainty coming through to Business/Consumer

Speaking on CNBC, BOE Bailey says:

• We see impact of tariff uncertainty coming through two business investment and consumers.
• Impact of tariffs on exchange-rate has not been that large for the UK.
• We are focused on the growth shock from tariffs.
• I don’t think UK economy is close to recession.
• Last GDP data was quite encouraging.
• Week PMI data reflects companies uncertainty.
• Talk about potential loss of dollar reserve currency status is overdone.
• I hope upcoming UK inflation bump will be transitory

ECBs Knot: Medium term impact of tariffs on inflation unclear

ECBs Knot is saying:

• Medium-term impact of tariffs on inflation is unclear.
• Way too early to take a position if June occurred or a hold

ECB’s Holzmann: Rate cut must wait for more tariff certainty:

• ECBs Holzmann cautious

• Rate cuts must wait for more tariff certainty.
• There was a broad consensus around lowering rates, but some disagreement at the margins.
• It wasn’t clear yet to what extent tariff countermeasures were being taken.
• There may be further cuts this year, but the number is still outstanding
• Says that while various scenarios remained possible with regard to prices and movement of rates, for the time being direction was a downward

Nomura Expects Swiss National Bank to Revive Negative Rates Amid Franc Surge

Nomura now forecasts the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will cut rates twice more in 2025, reversing its earlier call that March’s rate cut to 0.25% would be the last. The Japanese bank expects 25 basis point cuts in June and September, pushing policy back into negative territory.

The reason: Switzerland’s real effective exchange rate is estimated at its highest since 2008, and further ECB rate cuts combined with global tariff tensions are strengthening the Swiss franc. Nomura says if the SNB doesn’t act, the currency could become a major drag on the economy—effectively ending the post-Covid reset.

ECB’s Nagel: Fairly certain inflation effect will be stronger in the US than in Europe

• Comments from the ECB policymaker, Joachim Nagel

• Fairly certain inflation effect will be stronger in the US than in Europe.
• The effects of tariffs on growth will be significant in Europe and Germany.

ECB’s Lane: Disinflationary forces are there because of the Euro and energy

• European Central Bank chief economist speaking

• Disinflationary forces are there because of the Euro and energy.
• Trade policy uncertainty has been on radar since summer.
• There’s reason for longer-term optimism on the economy.
• The European economy is growing and showing resilience.
• The economy should be growing, despite trade negatives.
• We can’t get ahead of ourselves on any path for economy.
• The US is an important trading partner, but not the only partner.
• We won’t pre-commit to any rate path.
• Euro Area growth forecast will see a moderate markdown.

ECB’s Rehn: ECB shouldn’t rule out larger interest rate cut

• Remarks by ECB policymaker, Olli Rehn

• ECB shouldn’t rule out larger interest rate cut.
• There are a few good reasons to pause rate cuts.
• Economic risks are starting to materialise.
• We must retain full freedom of action, be agile.
• Tariffs have dampening effect on inflation in short to medium-term.
• Fiscal spending will only have effect from 2026 onwards

MUFG Sees ECB Cutting Rates in June, Normalization in Sight

MUFG is forecasting that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates by 25 basis points in June, with a follow-up cut likely by the end of 2025. The bank believes inflation risks are now skewed to the downside due to weak consumer demand, falling energy prices, and trade disruptions.

The ECB is expected to revise its inflation outlook lower and return to a neutral policy stance around 2%. MUFG sees the deposit rate falling to 1.75% by year-end, which they consider neutral to slightly accommodative. Uncertainty around fiscal plans in Germany and defense spending could influence further policy moves.

Trump admin says the EU fine on Meta and Apple will not be tolerated

• It was only 24 hours ago that Trump eased back on threatening the EU, another flip flop now

A White House statement says that the European Union fine on Meta and Apple is a novel form of economic extortion and will not be tolerated.

• Apple was fined US$570 million and Meta US$228 million – European Union antitrust regulators handed out the fines

Asia-Pacific & World News

China Warns It Will Fight Tariff War if Needed, Demands Respect in Talks

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that China is prepared to fight a tariff war if necessary, pushing back against the escalating U.S. stance. Guo insisted that no negotiations are underway and that respect is a precondition for any potential talks.

He labeled Washington’s unilateral tariffs as a “tsunami” that violates WTO rules. Guo’s comments follow a familiar pattern: the U.S. suggests openness to a deal, while China holds back, waiting for the U.S. to make the first diplomatic move.

China Commerce Ministry: No Trade Talks with U.S., Demands Tariff Rollback

China’s Commerce Ministry doubled down on its hardline position Thursday, stating there have been no trade negotiations with the U.S. despite media speculation. The Ministry dismissed reports of discussions as “groundless and without factual basis.”

Officials reiterated that the U.S. must first lift all unilateral tariffs before any real dialogue can occur. This mirrors China’s broader strategy of demanding concessions before engaging in talks with the Trump administration.

Xi Says China Ready to Uphold Global Trade Norms, But Tensions Persist

Chinese President Xi Jinping said China is willing to cooperate with other nations to defend international trade rules, emphasizing that “there are no winners in tariffs and trade wars.” The comments were broadcast by state media during Xi’s meeting with Kenyan President William Ruto in Beijing.

While the rhetoric promotes openness, the timing and setting underscore China’s broader strategy: deepen ties with developing nations while maintaining a firm stance against U.S. tariff pressure. Despite U.S. overtures, there’s still no visible progress toward narrowing the trade divide with Washington.

IMFs Georgieva: World economy is facing a new major test

The IMFs Georgieva is saying:

• Says world economy is facing a new and major test with depleted buffers
• Says China needs to reduce imbalances and shift to consumption
• Says trade-offs will be toughest for low income countries
• Says countries need to watch data for inflation pressures and adjust policy accordingly
• Says central bank independence is critical for credibility
• Says countries should double down on growth-oriented reforms and productivity enhancements
• Says U.S. is our largest shareholder, we value voice of U.S. administration
• Says Bessent expressed commitment to IMF
• Says Bessent raised important issues that will be incorporated into IMF policies
• Will follow membership and policies, countries that are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events will need support

Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions

• Updates on the Russia-Ukraine peace deal… no end in sight

• Russia says Zelensky has categorically refused to make any concessions or to discuss the status of Crimea.
• Says Zelensky’s approach shows he wants to fight the war until the last Ukrainian.
• Russia accuses European ‘hawks’ of encouraging Zelensky to continue the war regardless of casualties.
• Says European countries are afraid of the prospect of a Russian victory.

China to Lift Sanctions on EU Lawmakers in Bid to Revive Investment Deal

China is preparing to remove sanctions on five Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) as a goodwill step toward reviving its stalled investment deal with the European Union. A spokesperson for EP President Roberta Metsola confirmed that negotiations are nearing completion and group leaders will be briefed once finalized.

The sanctions were originally imposed in retaliation for EU criticism over human rights issues. Removing them is viewed as an effort by Beijing to rekindle talks on the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI).

China Trims Negative List for Market Access from 117 to 106 Sectors

China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has reduced its Negative List for Market Access from 117 to 106 items. The 2025 edition of the list has been approved by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and takes effect immediately.

The Negative List outlines industries restricted or closed to foreign investment. This move is part of Beijing’s gradual strategy to open more sectors to global capital while maintaining control over sensitive areas.

Trump says it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down

• Trump says it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down

Trump says it depends on China how soon tariffs can come down:

• have spoken to 90 countries regarding tariffs already
• over the next 2 – 3 weeks will set tariff for China
• If we don’t make a deal, we’re just setting the price, then they can decide if they want
• China is not doing any business with us — rate is still 145%
• I have not called Federal Reserve Chair Powell, may call him

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2098 (vs. estimate at 7.3111)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBOC injected 218bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.50%

• 245.5bn yuan mature today
• net drain is 27.5bn yuan

Westpac: RBA Set to Cut Rates by 25bps in May

Westpac, one of Australia’s major banks, is forecasting a 25 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its May 20 policy meeting. The bank sees no need to wait for CPI data, citing recent downside surprises in inflation and a growing set of global risks.

While future RBA actions will likely depend on incoming data, Westpac believes the current environment justifies preemptive easing. Global uncertainty has shifted the risk landscape and put more pressure on the central bank to act.

Japan Resists U.S. Push to Form Trade Bloc Against China

Japan is reportedly pushing back against U.S. efforts to form an anti-China trade bloc, part of Trump’s broader strategy to isolate Beijing and pressure it into trade concessions. Japanese officials are said to oppose the idea, signaling that Tokyo isn’t fully aligned with Washington’s confrontational approach.

The resistance reflects broader global hesitation to follow the U.S. lead, especially as recent domestic and international developments have made the U.S. position appear weaker than just weeks ago.

Nissan Cancels Two U.S. EV Projects at Mississippi Plant

Nissan has dropped plans to develop two electric vehicle models that were previously scheduled for production at its Mississippi plant starting in 2028, according to a report from Nikkei via Reuters. The scrapped projects signal a strategic pullback in the Japanese automaker’s U.S. EV rollout, though no official reason for the decision was given.

Trump Administration Denies Japan Special Tariff Exemptions

The U.S. has informed Japan that it will not receive special tariff exemptions, according to a report by NHK, cited by Reuters. The decision was conveyed during bilateral talks earlier this month and underscores the Trump administration’s increasingly tough stance—even on key allies—amid its broader tariff policy push.

Japan’s March Services PPI Rises to 3.1% Y/Y

Japan’s Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI)—commonly referred to as the services PPI—climbed to 3.1% year-over-year in March, up from 3.0% in February. On a monthly basis, the index rose 0.7%, a sharp jump from the prior flat reading of 0.0%. The increase points to ongoing cost pressures in Japan’s service sector.

Japan finance minister Kato told the G7 that US tariffs are highly disappointing

• Japan finance minister Kato:

• US tariffs, countermeasures are creating uncertainties in financial market
• told G7 US tariffs are highly disappointing
• Stressed that free trade regime promotion important
• Constructive policy discussion important
• refrains from comment on Bessent’s foreign exchange remarks
• FX rates should be determined by the market
• Excessive forex moves negatively affect the economy
• In meeting with Bessent tomorrow, hope to hold talks on basis of past understanding on the need for two countries to coordinate closely

South Korea’s Economy Shrinks in Q1, Rate Cut Bets Rise

South Korea’s economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, falling short of forecasts that expected 0.1% growth. It marks the country’s first economic pullback since mid-2024. Exports dropped by 1.1%, reversing the 0.8% gain seen in Q4 last year, while domestic consumption also weakened amid mounting fears over U.S. tariffs.

The data has intensified market expectations for rate cuts, with analysts now predicting the Bank of Korea will lower rates as soon as May, and the policy rate potentially reaching 2.25% by Q3. Trump’s wide-reaching tariffs are being cited as a key headwind for the export-driven economy.

Crypto Market Pulse

Crypto Today: SUI and Trump Token Buck the Trend as Market Slides Below $3T

The global crypto market saw a sharp pullback on Thursday, with total capitalization dipping 3.5% to $2.99 trillion, falling below the $3 trillion mark for the first time this week. The retreat follows a notable rotation of capital back into U.S. equities, as investors responded to President Trump’s softened rhetoric on China tariffs by locking in crypto gains and shifting exposure toward stocks.

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Bitcoin Struggles to Hold $93K

Bitcoin (BTC) traded lower on the day, hovering around $92,395, after peaking at $94,300 earlier in the session. The move marks a consolidation phase, despite ongoing demand from spot ETFs, which have helped sustain the recent uptrend.

Bitcoin has now lost 1.3% in 24 hours, with sideways movement likely until a fresh macro trigger pushes momentum decisively in either direction.

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Altcoins: SUI and Trump Token Defy the Dip

While most altcoins traded in the red, a few names managed to break the trend. Leading the way was the Official Trump Token, which surged 31.7% in the past 24 hours to trade at $12.39. Meanwhile, SUI gained 3%, showing resilience amid broad-based selling pressure.

Top altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) fell sharply, dropping 3.5% to $1,745. Other major tokens showed similarly weak performance, as risk appetite faded and traders sought shelter in more stable positions.

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Stablecoins Hold Ground Amid Risk-Off Sentiment

USDT and USDC—the market’s two largest stablecoins—remained pegged at $1.00 and $0.9999, respectively. Both saw increased trading volumes as traders moved capital into safer, non-volatile assets, signaling a cautious tone across the market.

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Crypto Headlines

FBI: Crypto Scams Targeting Seniors Cost $2.8B in 2024

The FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center reported a surge in crypto-related fraud, totaling over $9.3 billion in 2024—a 66% jump from the year prior. Alarming data shows that seniors aged 60+ lost $2.8 billion, or 30% of total crypto scam losses, despite representing just 17% of the U.S. population.

Most losses came from crypto ATM fraud and investment scams, with seniors averaging $83,000 per case, four times higher than other online scams.

RockawayX Launches $125M Solana Fund Amid VC Slowdown

Crypto investment firm RockawayX has raised a $125 million fund to back early-stage Solana-based startups, bucking the wider slowdown in venture capital across the digital asset space. The firm plans to invest in both seed-stage equity and liquid tokens, and will launch a Solana accelerator in Dubai later this year.

This is RockawayX’s second early-stage fund. The first, launched in 2021, returned more than 2x to investors. The firm currently manages about $2 billion in assets.

ZKsync Hacker Returns $5M After Bounty Deal

ZK Nation announced it has recovered $5 million in stolen tokens related to the ZKsync protocol, after the hacker agreed to a 10% bounty in exchange for returning the funds. The recovered tokens, now worth around $5.66 million, remain secured as governance discussions determine their redistribution.

ZKsync confirmed that user assets were never at risk, and emphasized that no vulnerabilities remain following the incident.

Sui Defies Market Drop as DeFi Activity Lifts Price Near $3

Sui is trading at $2.98, bucking broader crypto weakness after a sharp rebound in its DeFi ecosystem. The network’s DEX trading volume rose 38.5% in the last week to $2.77 billion, with $806 million in volume recorded in just 24 hours.

Sui’s TVL increased 9.6% to $1.595 billion, and its stablecoin market cap grew 7.8% to $865.2 million, led by USDC (71.6% share). Price action is supported by bullish momentum, with RSI at 69.26, close to overbought territory.

If SUI closes above $3.00, it may retest resistance at $3.58. Key support is seen at $2.75, followed by $2.46 at the 50-day EMA.

XRP Slides as Long Liquidations Hit $10M on Market Weakness

Ripple’s XRP has dropped more than 3%, trading at $2.14, as crypto markets retreat from Wednesday’s rally. Open Interest (OI) in XRP derivatives has fallen 2.67% to $3.84 billion, reflecting declining confidence among traders.

Long liquidations totaled over $10 million, far exceeding the $3 million in short liquidations. With the 24-hour long/short ratio at 0.9436 and volume down 2.4% to $9.52 billion, sentiment continues to deteriorate. Traders are watching for support levels to hold, or risk a deeper slide.

PancakeSwap Hits Record $205.3B in Q1 Volume, Eyes ‘Infinity’ Launch

PancakeSwap has just wrapped up its strongest quarter yet, reporting $205.3 billion in trading volume for Q1 2025—a record since its launch in 2023. The platform has seen a 921% surge in trade volume since Q1 2023, alongside an 81.25% jump in unique users and a 159.41% increase in transactions.

Despite the milestone, its token CAKE is down 3% on the day, trading near $2, but remains up 10% on the week. Analysts say the upcoming “Infinity” upgrade—which promises improved performance—could act as a major price catalyst.

Total value locked (TVL) on the DEX now stands at $1.644 billion, and PancakeSwap continues to lead on BNB Chain, Base, Arbitrum, and Ethereum, where cumulative trading volume exceeds $1.2 trillion.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

United States

• Equities rally again: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed up over 2%, marking three consecutive days of gains. The NASDAQ led with a 2.74% surge, while the Dow added 1.23%. All three major indices are higher on the week, with the NASDAQ up 5.40%.
• Technical breakout: Both the S&P and Dow closed above their 200-hour moving averages for the first time since February—potentially setting the stage for a broader recovery.
• Post-market earnings:
  • Alphabet beat big on earnings and revenue; shares rose over 5% in after-hours.
  • Intel beat expectations but offered weak guidance; stock fell nearly 4%.
  • T-Mobile and Gilead both topped EPS estimates; Gilead trimmed full-year guidance.
• Durable goods orders jumped 9.2%, driven by transportation—its highest monthly increase since July 2024.

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Canada

• Finance Minister Champagne said G7 unity holds, but tensions over U.S. tariffs remain. He reiterated Canada’s leadership role and warned of inflationary risks from ongoing trade barriers.
• Prime Minister Carney pushed back on Trump’s anti-auto rhetoric: “We decide what happens here.”
• Canada’s role in the global trade conversation continues to grow, especially with upcoming elections and rising pressure on bilateral relations with the U.S.

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Commodities

• Gold surged back above $3,300, up 1.5% on safe-haven buying tied to renewed US-China trade tensions and falling bond yields.
• Crude oil settled at $62.79, up 0.84%, but remains range-bound as the market awaits clarity on OPEC+ production policy and broader economic direction.
• Silver pulled back to $33.30 after briefly touching a 3-week high, weighed by improving trade sentiment and risk-on flows.
• Copper extended gains on optimism over tariff relief and a bullish speculator build-up. Supply risks in Peru added upward pressure.

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Europe

• Most European stock indices finished higher:
  • DAX: +0.49%
  • CAC 40: +0.27%
  • FTSE 100: +0.05%
  • Spain’s Ibex lagged: -0.22%
  • FTSE MIB (Italy): +0.96%
• Germany’s Ifo business climate index came in stronger than expected, aligning with PMI strength and showing some resilience despite global trade uncertainty.
• ECB rate cut expectations remain intact for June, according to MUFG, as disinflation continues to broaden across the eurozone.

Asia

• South Korea’s Q1 GDP unexpectedly contracted -0.2%, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts as soon as May. Exports dropped 1.1%, with tariff threats cited as a key drag.
• Japan reported a 3.1% y/y increase in services PPI, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector.
• China’s policy signals:
  • Preparing to lift sanctions on EU lawmakers to revive investment deals.
  • Trimmed its negative list for foreign investment from 117 to 106 items, signaling incremental market liberalization.
• China also doubled down on trade rhetoric, saying it would fight the tariff war if necessary, while confirming that no trade talks with the U.S. are underway.

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Rest of the World

• President Trump said he will attend Pope Francis’ funeral in Rome, and meet with world leaders. He claimed Russia is open to ending the war in Ukraine and expressed hope for peace via diplomatic pressure.
• Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q2 estimate slipped to -0.4% adjusted and -2.5% unadjusted, as gold flows skew near-term growth projections.
• US Treasury 7-year auction showed weak foreign demand, earning a D+ grade, as domestic buyers stepped up but couldn’t offset the drop in international participation.

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Crypto

• Market cap falls back below $3 trillion, down 3.5% in 24 hours as traders rotate back into U.S. equities amid Trump’s softened China tariff stance.
• Bitcoin hovers at $92,395, still in consolidation mode after failing to break $95,000. Ethereum dropped 3.5% to $1,745.
• Top performers:
  • SUI: +3%
  • Official Trump Token: +31.7%
• Stablecoins remain steady, with USDT and USDC holding peg and seeing increased volume.
• FBI report: Crypto fraud surged to $9.3B in 2024, with seniors losing $2.8B—nearly 30% of total losses.
• RockawayX raised a $125M fund to back Solana-based startups, defying a broader crypto VC slump.
• ZKsync recovered $5M in stolen tokens after a bounty deal with the hacker, easing security concerns.