Daily Market Roundup

North America News

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Set New Records as Alphabet, Tesla, and Others Report Earnings

U.S. stock indices finished Wednesday at their highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logging new all-time closing records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average came just four points short of its record high set on December 4, 2024.

Here’s how the major indexes settled:

• Dow Jones: +507.85 points (+1.14%) to 45,010.29 — near its all-time high of 45,014.04
• S&P 500: +49.29 points (+0.78%) to 6,358.91
• Nasdaq Composite: +127.33 points (+0.61%) to 21,020.02
• Russell 2000: +34.37 points (+1.53%) to 2,283.12

Intraday highs:

• S&P 500: 6,360.64
• Nasdaq: 21,023.50

After the bell, investors got a flood of earnings reports from major tech and industrial names:

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🔹 Alphabet (GOOGL)

• EPS: $2.31 vs. $2.16 expected → Beat
• Revenue: $96.43B vs. $93.85B expected → Beat
• Cloud revenue: $13.62B vs. $13.14B expected
• Ad revenue: $71.34B vs. $69.64B expected
• Search revenue: $54.19B

Key Metrics:

• Revenue grew +14% YoY (+13% in constant currency)
• Net income: $28.2B (+19%)
• Cloud operating income: $2.83B vs. $1.17B last year
• FCF: $5.3B; Op Cash Flow: $27.7B
• Raised 2025 CapEx to ~$85B for AI expansion
• Repurchased $13.6B in shares, paid $2.54B in dividends
• Headcount: 187,000 (+4%)
• Regional sales growth: U.S. +12%, APAC +18%, EMEA +11% (constant currency)

Stock Reaction: Down $3.12 (-1.64%) in after-hours to $187.47, after snapping a 10-day winning streak.

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🔹 Tesla (TSLA)

• EPS: $0.40 vs. $0.41 expected → Miss
• Revenue: $22.5B vs. $22.09B expected → Beat

Stock Reaction: Down $1.46 (-0.43%) to $331.50

(See detailed breakdown below)

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🔹 ServiceNow (NOW)

• EPS: $4.09 vs. $3.58 expected → Beat
• Revenue: $3.22B vs. $3.12B expected → Beat
• Shares up $56.73 (+5.93%) to $1,013.16

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🔹 Chipotle (CMG)

• EPS: $0.33 vs. $0.33 expected → In line
• Revenue: $3.06B vs. $3.11B expected → Miss
• Shares down $4.78 (-9.06%) to $48.00

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🔹 IBM

• EPS: $2.80 vs. $2.65 expected → Beat
• Revenue: $16.98B vs. $16.58B expected → Beat
• Shares down $13.26 (-4.70%) to $268.75

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🔹 T-Mobile (TMUS)

• EPS: $2.84 vs. $2.67 expected → Beat
• Revenue: $21.13B vs. $21.03B expected
• Adj. EBITDA: $8.55B vs. $8.4B expected
• Shares flat, down $0.07 (-0.25%) to $27.68

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🔹 CSX Corp (CSX)

• EPS: $0.44 vs. $0.42 expected → Beat
• Revenue: $3.57B vs. $3.58B expected → Slight miss
• Shares up $0.42 (+1.20%) to $35.39

Tesla Q2 2025: Misses on Earnings, Cash Flow Plummets Despite Strong Delivery Milestones

Tesla reported mixed Q2 results, falling short on earnings as margins and free cash flow cratered, even as it delivered on key product rollouts and manufacturing targets.

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🧾 Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $22.5B, -12% YoY (vs. $25.5B prior year)
• EPS (GAAP): $0.33 (vs. $0.40 prior year)
• Net income: $1.17B, -16% YoY
• Operating income: $923M, -42% YoY
• Free cash flow: $146M, down 89% YoY
• Operating cash flow: $2.54B, -30% YoY
• Gross margin: 17.2% (vs. 18.0%)
• Operating margin: 4.1% (vs. 6.3%)

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Segment Results

• Automotive Revenue: $16.7B, down 16% YoY
• Regulatory Credits: Fell to $439M (vs. $890M)
• Services & Other Revenue: Rose 17% to $3.05B
• Energy Revenue: Dropped 7% to $2.79B

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R&D and AI Focus

• R&D spending jumped 48% to $1.59B due to AI and autonomy projects
• AI training capacity reached 67,000 H100 equivalents
• FSD miles driven: Over 4.5 billion cumulative

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Operational Highlights

• Vehicle deliveries: 384,000 (down 13%)
• Production: 410,000 (flat YoY)
• Inventory days: 24 (up from 18 YoY)
• Roboticaxi pilot launched in Austin
• First Megapacks from Shanghai deployed
• Supercharger network: 7,377 stations (+14%), 70,228 connectors (+18%)
• Tesla locations: 1,454 (+13%)
• Mobile service fleet: 1,684 (-11%)
• Model Y: Best-selling vehicle in Norway and several EU countries
• Model 3: Earned 5-star safety ratings from ANCAP and EuroNCAP

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Capacity & Guidance

• Annual capacity: >2.3M vehicles globally
• Cybertruck capacity: >125K at Texas Gigafactory
• LFP and cathode plants: On track for 2025
• Roadster still in design phase
• Cybercab production set for 2026
• New affordable model: First units expected in H2 2025
• FSD expansion to Europe and China pending approvals

Strong Demand for U.S. 20-Year Bonds at $13B Treasury Auction

The U.S. Treasury’s $13 billion auction of 20-year bonds on Wednesday drew robust demand:

• High yield: 4.935%
• When-issued (WI) yield at auction time: 4.951%
• Tail: -1.6 bps, much stronger than the 6-month average of -0.1 bps
• Bid-to-cover ratio: 2.79x (6-month avg: 2.62x)
• Direct bidders: 21.86% (vs 18.0%)
• Indirect bidders: 67.43% (vs 68.0%)
• Dealer takedown: 10.72% (vs 14.0%)

This was a solid performance, especially given the recent pause in Treasury auctions. Domestic demand came in strong, while foreign participation held near average, easing the burden on dealers.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Drop to 3.93M in June, Miss Expectations

The U.S. housing market showed fresh signs of strain in June, with existing home sales falling to 3.93 million, missing the forecasted 4.00 million.

• May’s figure was revised slightly higher to 4.04 million
• Sales declined 2.7%, after a 1.0% gain the prior month
• Inventory: 1.53 million homes, equal to 4.7 months of supply (six months is considered balanced)
• Median home price: $435,300 — a new all-time high, up 2% YoY
• Time on market: 27 days (vs 22 days last year)
• First-time buyers: 30% of market, well below the historical 40%
• All-cash transactions: 29% of sales
• 30-year mortgage rate: 6.77%

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed to years of underbuilding as the main cause of persistently high prices. “Construction hasn’t kept up with population growth,” he said, adding that more housing supply is necessary to increase first-time buyer participation despite temporary oversupply in certain regions.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebound Modestly After Steep Drop

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications rose slightly for the week ending July 18, 2025:

• Overall index: 255.5, up from 253.5
• Purchase index: 165.1, up from 159.6
• Refinance index: 747.5, down from 767.6
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.84%, up from 6.82%

This follows a sharp 10% decline in the prior week.

DOJ Tells Trump His Name Appears in Epstein Files, WSJ Reports

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Department of Justice (DOJ) informed President Trump that his name is among many found in the documents tied to Jeffrey Epstein.

• DOJ reviewed a “truckload” of records and identified Trump’s name on several occasions
• Attorney General Pam Bondi briefed Trump in May about the findings
• DOJ emphasized this does not indicate wrongdoing, and much of the material is unverified or hearsay
• Hundreds of prominent individuals were named in the files
• DOJ chose not to release most of the documents due to child exploitation content and victim protection concerns
• Trump later claimed Bondi hadn’t informed him — contradicting the May meeting
• DOJ publicly stated on July 7 that no “client list” exists and no further action is warranted
• FBI policy supports withholding uncharged or sensitive investigative content

Trump Blames Powell for Housing Market Weakness

President Trump, continuing his public feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, blamed the sluggish U.S. housing market on the Fed’s rate policies.

He also suggested he may try to influence other FOMC members — “The Board” — to align with his views on monetary easing.

White House Announces Sweeping Deregulation Plan to Accelerate AI Development

The Trump administration released its AI Action Plan, aiming to remove barriers to U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence.

Key elements:

• Deregulation: Eliminating red tape to speed up AI development and data center construction
• Infrastructure: Modernizing permits, boosting energy access
• Export Strategy: Partnering with industry to distribute U.S.-made AI globally
• Free Speech Protections: Ensuring AI remains ideologically neutral
• Executive Order 14179 sets the plan into motion

Trump emphasized that the U.S. must win the global AI race by building superior, politically neutral, and militarily secure systems.

Japan to Buy 100 Boeing Aircraft, Ramp Up U.S. Agriculture Purchases

New figures from the White House reveal key elements of the U.S.–Japan trade package:

• 100 Boeing jets to be purchased by Japan
• Rice purchases from the U.S. to increase 75%
• Total U.S. agriculture and product buys to reach $8 billion
• Defense spending via U.S. firms to rise to $17 billion/year, up from $14 billion

Commerce Secretary Lutnick: Japan Pact May Serve as EU Deal Blueprint

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the Japan deal could be the template for Europe.

• Japan will provide loans, equity, and guarantees, but the U.S. will choose the projects.
• The 15% tariff on Japanese autos sits just on the edge of feasibility for domestic production.
• “Larger economies likely can’t go below 15%. Smaller nations might,” he noted.
• He suggested that if Europe opens fully to U.S. products—including vehicles—it could lead to a “giant deal.”
• He confirmed China won’t get top-tier U.S. chips or hypersonic missile tech.

Bessent: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations Making Progress

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade talks with the EU are now “in a better place” than they were weeks ago. He characterized the EU’s retaliatory threats as part of their negotiation tactics.

• Bessent said China talks are advancing, opening the door to broader discussions.
• He noted Japan’s 15% auto tariff deal is unique and might not be replicable elsewhere.
• On decoupling from China, Bessent clarified: “We want de-risking, not decoupling.”
• He confirmed Powell is not stepping down and that regular Fed meetings continue.

OpenAI Confirmed as Oracle’s $30 Billion Cloud Client

Oracle’s massive $30 billion annual cloud deal—originally disclosed in a regulatory filing without identifying the customer—has now been confirmed to involve OpenAI.

CEO Sam Altman acknowledged the partnership via a blog post and social media, although he did not confirm the exact dollar figure. The announcement triggered a rally in Oracle’s stock, sending shares to new record highs.

This contract underscores OpenAI’s aggressive expansion of cloud infrastructure to support its AI workloads and further entrenches Oracle as a key provider in the AI development ecosystem.

Northrop Grumman Sees Minimal Risk from Trump Tariffs

In an SEC filing, defense contractor Northrop Grumman stated that it does not expect the current Trump-era tariffs to have a material negative impact on its operations.

For 2025, the company anticipates receiving a cash tax benefit of $200–$250 million from the provisions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which it says will enhance near-term liquidity and investment flexibility.

Goldman Sachs Projects Fed to Begin Rate Cuts in September, Continue Through Early 2026

Goldman Sachs has reinforced its view that the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate-cutting cycle beginning in September 2025, with 25 basis-point reductions at each of the year’s remaining three meetings:

• September 16–17
• October 28–29
• December 9–10

The firm also forecasts two more cuts in early 2026, assuming inflation expectations remain contained.

Goldman cites several headwinds:

• A sharp slowdown in private-sector hiring, approaching “stall speed”
• Six months of flat consumer spending, an uncommon occurrence outside recessions

Analysts say that unless inflation surges anew, these factors justify a measured but persistent policy easing path.

Canada New Home Prices Slide Again in June

Canada’s new housing price index declined by 0.2% in June, matching the previous month’s drop.

• Annual change: -1.0%
• This marks a continued cooling trend in new home pricing.
• June’s result extends a stretch of monthly declines, reflecting weakness in residential construction pricing and softer demand amid high borrowing costs.

Commodities News

Gold Drops Below $3,400 as U.S.–EU Tariff Agreement Nears

Gold fell sharply Wednesday, sliding below the $3,400 mark as optimism around a U.S.–EU trade deal dented safe-haven demand — despite continued weakness in the U.S. dollar.

• Spot gold: $3,387, down 1.20%
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Down 0.21% to 97.18
• 10-year Treasury yields: Slightly higher, limiting dollar downside

Reports from the Financial Times say that the U.S. and EU are finalizing an agreement to impose 15% reciprocal tariffs, mirroring Tuesday’s U.S.–Japan deal. U.S. trade adviser Peter Navarro urged skepticism, warning against reading too much into leaked details.

The FT noted that both sides are considering tariff waivers on items like aircraft, spirits, and medical devices as part of the arrangement. Trump has signaled a 30% tariff will kick in August 1 if no deal is reached.

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Economic Backdrop

• U.S. existing home sales: Fell 2.7% MoM to 3.93M in June, confirming signs of housing market strain
• Next key data points:
  • Initial Jobless Claims (July 19): Expected 227K (prior 221K)
  • Durable Goods Orders (Friday): Forecast at -10.8% (prior +16.4%)

Fed futures show 94% odds the central bank will hold rates steady on July 30. Traders continue to monitor developments in yields, trade diplomacy, and macro data as key catalysts for gold’s next move.

Silver Pauses Below $39.50 After Rally to 14-Year Highs

Silver is trading just under $39.50 after a blistering three-day surge that lifted the metal to its highest levels since September 2011.

• Weekly gain: +3.33%
• 14-year high: $39.48
• RSI: 73 (overbought territory)
• ADX: 23.60, showing a strengthening trend

While bullish momentum is still dominant, the market is cooling slightly as the U.S. dollar steadies following the U.S.–Japan trade developments.

Chart structure:

• Silver remains inside a strong upward channel since April
• Holding above the 9, 21, and 50-day EMAs, all pointing higher
• A breakout above $40.00 would be a bullish trigger, opening the door to $42.00 or even $43.00
• Support lies at $38.10–$38.45, with deeper support near the 21-day EMA at $37.59 and 50-day EMA at $36.20

Despite the pause, technical and macro conditions continue to support the uptrend.

EIA Reports Crude Drawdown of 3.17M Barrels; Oil Falls Below $65

EIA Inventory Data for the Week:

• Crude: -3.169M (vs. -1.565M est.)
• Gasoline: -0.908M (in line with estimate)
• Distillates: +2.931M (vs. -1.135M est.)
• Cushing: +0.455M (prior: +0.213M)

Price Action:
Crude oil slipped $0.45 (-0.69%) to $64.95, hovering just above its 100-day MA at $64.94. A break below the $64.48–$64.70 range could accelerate downside toward $64.

Copper Pushes Toward $10,000 as China Demand Ramps Up

Copper prices are once again approaching the $10,000/tonne mark, with LME contracts climbing beyond $9,920/tonne on strong Chinese demand signals.

China’s refined copper imports surged 15% in June versus May, reflecting renewed industrial appetite. However, imports of U.S. copper scrap plummeted, hitting a 21-year low due to upcoming tariffs set to take effect in two weeks. Volumes dropped to under 2,000 tonnes, compared to 14,023 tonnes in May and an average of 36,600 tonnes in 2024.

Uncertainty remains around whether all copper products will be subject to these tariffs or if specific exemptions—like those granted to aluminum scrap—might be introduced.

Meanwhile, iron ore prices have also spiked, hitting a five-month high following China’s announcement of a large-scale hydropower infrastructure project in Tibet, and additional support from supply-side reforms in the steel sector.

EU Natural Gas Prices Stabilize as Norwegian Supply Recovers

European natural gas prices held steady after recent declines, as Norwegian flows rebounded from last week’s unplanned outage, alleviating immediate supply concerns.

EU gas storage now stands at just over 65% full, still below the five-year average of 74%. Société Générale analysts warned that sustained price strength will be required to ensure adequate LNG supply ahead of winter 2025/26, as the region prepares for peak seasonal demand.

Gold Tests $3,440 Resistance as Bulls Face Critical Hurdle

Gold prices are now pressing against a major resistance level near $3,440, a line that has capped rallies since May. Traders are watching closely to see whether this barrier holds or breaks.

Fundamentals:
The recent push came with no clear fresh catalyst, instead driven by continued repositioning after last week’s soft U.S. inflation numbers. Real yields and the U.S. dollar have declined, giving gold a tailwind.

Bigger picture, gold’s outlook remains bullish amid expectations of falling real yields under a Fed easing cycle. However, any hawkish shift in rate expectations could trigger short-term pullbacks.

Daily Chart:
Gold has pushed into the $3,438 zone. This is where sellers have historically returned. They may now position for a drop back toward the trendline. Buyers will look for a clean breakout to target all-time highs.

4-Hour Chart:
After clearing the $3,377 mini-resistance, bullish momentum picked up. The $3,438 zone remains the next barrier. Sellers may defend here, while bulls will watch for confirmation of a breakout.

1-Hour Chart:
A short-term uptrend line is guiding the price higher. Bulls are likely to use it as support. If it breaks, sellers could press toward the larger trendline area.

Oil Market Pressured by Tariff Risks and Supply Outlook

Oil prices slipped, with ICE Brent settling down 0.9% amid growing unease over the looming August 1 tariff deadline and market expectations for a supply surplus later this year.

While many forecasts—including ING’s—anticipate a large Q4 2025 surplus, the futures market paints a different picture. The Brent forward curve has shifted from contango to backwardation through early 2026, suggesting tighter near-term conditions.

Key data from API overnight:

• U.S. crude inventories fell by 577k barrels
• Cushing stocks rose by 314k barrels
• Gasoline inventories declined by 1.2 million barrels
• Distillates increased by 3.5 million barrels, easing pressure on tight mid-distillate supplies

The market awaits confirmation from the EIA’s official inventory report. Low inventory levels could soften the impact of a Q4 surplus, analysts say, with time spreads and flat prices finding some support as a result.

Europe News

U.S. and EU Close to 15% Tariff Deal, FT Reports

According to the Financial Times, the U.S. and EU are nearing a 15% reciprocal tariff agreement.

• U.S. would waive tariffs on items like aircraft, spirits, and medical devices
• EU would match reciprocal levies to avoid the threatened 30% U.S. hike set for August 1
• In case of no agreement, the EU is preparing a €93B retaliatory tariff package, up to 30% on key goods
• Reuters confirmed the FT story via EU diplomatic sources; Brussels may vote Thursday on the tariff package

Whether the White House offers sufficient concessions remains an open question.

EU’s von der Leyen: EU and Japan to work more closely to address unfair trade

• Comments from the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen

• We believe in global competitiveness and it should benefit everyone
• Ishiba agreed with EU to start talks for information protection agreement.
• Ishiba agreed to maintain and strengthen rule-based free and fair economic order.

Asia-Pacific & World News

China Issues Diplomatic Protest Over EU Sanctions During Trade Meeting

During a high-level virtual meeting between China’s Commerce Minister and the European Union’s trade chief, Beijing issued a formal protest in response to EU sanctions on Chinese firms. Chinese officials lodged “solemn representations,” a diplomatic rebuke expressing strong dissatisfaction with the measures.

Though both sides stressed the importance of maintaining trade cooperation, the dialogue made clear that tensions remain elevated amid escalating regulatory and geopolitical friction between China and the EU.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1414 (vs. estimate at 7.1596)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBOC injected 150.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%

• 520.1bn yuan mature today
• net 369.6bn drain yuan

Australia’s Leading Index Shows Loss of Momentum in June

Westpac’s latest update on its Leading Index—a forward-looking indicator for Australian economic activity—revealed a deceleration in momentum for June.

The six-month annualized growth rate fell to 0.03%, down from 0.11% in May. Westpac economists attributed the slowdown primarily to weakness in commodity prices, deteriorating business sentiment, and reduced hours worked.

Analysts cautioned that unless support from financial conditions, U.S. growth, and market expectations remains intact, Australia could face a period of economic fragility in the months ahead.

APRA Leaves Mortgage Buffer and Capital Settings Unchanged

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced it will keep its macroprudential policy settings unchanged, retaining a conservative stance despite shifting economic signals.

The mortgage serviceability buffer remains at 3 percentage points, and the countercyclical capital buffer is held at the default 1% of risk-weighted assets. APRA emphasized the importance of maintaining financial stability as global risks evolve.

BOJ’s Uchida: US-Japan trade agreement is a big progress, helps reduce uncertainty

• Remarks by BOJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida

• Will reflect trade agreement in next economic outlook report
• Uncertainty remains on tariffs impact towards the economy
• There is always upside, downside risks to the outlook
• Trade deal reduces uncertainty for Japan’s firms
• But will need to monitor downside risks to the economy

Japan finance minister reaffirms that forex not included in trade deal with US

• Japan finance minister, Katsunobu Kabo, spoke with Kyodo News

Kato said that the trade deal did not include any reference to foreign exchange rates but said that he had a separate conversation on forex matters with Bessent during talks in Tokyo. This is just to add some clarity to the scope of the deal, with Trump having previously made some jabs at Japan on intentionally maintaining a weaker yen.

BoJ’s Uchida Says Japan’s Recovery Moderate, Warns of High Uncertainty

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida provided a cautiously optimistic assessment of Japan’s economy, stating it has shown “moderate recovery,” though pockets of weakness persist.

Uchida emphasized that uncertainty tied to global trade and domestic economic direction remains extremely elevated, and warned that risks are still tilted to the downside. Cost-driven inflation, notably in food prices, has been rising, but not in a way that would yet warrant tightening policy.

He noted the BoJ would adjust policy “in line with actual trends in economic activity and inflation,” adding that any rate hikes will depend on the realization of their projected scenarios. For now, large-scale monetary easing remains essential, Uchida said, as the country navigates volatile external conditions and shifting consumer behavior.

The central bank will monitor whether corporate pricing and wage strategies align with inflation projections, particularly as core inflation could temporarily dip below 2% before accelerating again. Long-term inflation expectations, meanwhile, are “slowly rising,” he noted.

Trump Declares “Massive” Trade Deal with Japan; Tokyo Responds Cautiously

President Trump announced a sweeping trade pact with Japan, claiming it to be one of the most significant agreements ever made. In his words, Japan will invest $550 billion into the United States and will face 15% reciprocal tariffs—a rate that includes autos, as reported by NHK citing a Japanese government source.

However, Tokyo is not echoing Trump’s enthusiasm just yet. Prime Minister Ishiba declined to offer details, saying he would reserve judgment until he had fully reviewed the deal’s content. “I can’t speak on it without examining the outcome thoroughly,” Ishiba said when questioned about the agreement’s potential political implications.

A Trump administration source added that Japan is expected to ramp up purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, especially rice. No changes were made to other sector-specific tariffs.

Despite the positive tone from Washington, SMBC’s chief currency strategist Hirofumi Suzuki warned that the news may offer only modest support for the yen due to political uncertainties and limited immediate impact on monetary policy. “This is constructive for Japan’s economy, but it’s not enough to shift the Bank of Japan’s policy direction,” Suzuki said.

Moody’s Analytics: Japan trade deal could deepen political strains in Tokyo

• Asks if the deal was reached pre-election but Ishiba sought to delay the announcement

While the new U.S.-Japan trade deal is making headlines, its most immediate impact may be political, according to Moody’s Analytics economist Stefan Angrick.

Coming just days after Prime Minister Ishiba’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the upper house, the timing has raised questions. Angrick suggests Ishiba may have delayed finalising the deal until after the vote, having previously framed tariff threats as a national crisis to justify political unity. Now that the tariff risk is easing, that argument appears less convincing.

If Ishiba were to step down, his successor might face pressure to reassess a deal critics see as tilted in Washington’s favour.

Japanese PM Ishiba set to resign as soon as this month

• Reuters shifting the time line forward

Reuters reporting on Ishiba imminent resignation, citing Yomiuri. Say it could come as soon as July.

Crypto Market Pulse

XRP Retreats From Highs as Futures Interest Wanes; Brazil’s VERT Launches on XRPL

Ripple’s XRP traded around $3.27 on Wednesday, pulling back from last week’s peak of $3.66.

• Futures Open Interest (OI) is declining after previously hitting $10.94 billion, the year’s high
• The RSI is also falling, signaling a cooldown in buying momentum

Meanwhile, Brazil’s VERT, a major securitization firm, rolled out a blockchain-based platform for managing private credit on the XRP Ledger. The platform already executed its first transaction: a $130 million Agribusiness Receivables Certificate (CRA).

VERT’s on-chain approach promises greater traceability, transparency, and efficiency, while taking advantage of XRPL’s low-cost and regulatory-compliant infrastructure. It also utilizes XRPL’s newly launched EVM Sidechain, bringing Ethereum smart contract compatibility to XRP.

Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon Enable Blockchain Investment in Tokenized Funds

Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon are opening the door to institutional investment in tokenized money market funds. The initiative lets BNY clients buy into traditional MMFs, with ownership tracked on Goldman’s DAP blockchain.

• Participants include: BlackRock, Fidelity, Federated Hermes, and the asset management arms of both banks
• BNY will maintain the official fund records and settlements under current regulations
• Tokenized shares on GS DAP® could be used as collateral in future financial transactions

Goldman’s Mathew McDermott said tokenization “unlocks utility and seamless transferability.” The move follows similar efforts by JPMorgan with Ondo Finance.

This push into tokenized finance coincides with President Trump’s GENIUS Act, signed last Friday, which creates a federal framework for stablecoin oversight.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana Lead Broad Crypto Correction

Top cryptocurrencies are under pressure, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana all trading lower on Wednesday. The total crypto market cap has dropped nearly 6%, slipping below $4 trillion.

• Bitcoin fell under $120,000 and is now around $118,000
• Ethereum, XRP, and Solana broke key daily support levels
• Profit-taking by both whales and retail traders is driving the pullback
• Santiment data shows heavy realized profits since May from major wallets

Altcoin season may be near:

• The Altcoin Season Index stands at 49 (out of 100).
• A score over 75 indicates altcoin dominance; this last occurred in December 2024
• Bitcoin’s rising market dominance continues to overshadow ETH, SOL, and others
• Given high correlation (0.75+) between altcoins and BTC, any dip in BTC drags the rest of the market with it

Despite the current decline, overall sentiment remains greedy, and institutional adoption trends remain intact.

Solana Targeted for $500 as Upexi Boosts Holdings Past 1.8 Million SOL

Solana (SOL) hovered just under $200 early Wednesday after strong buying from institutional players and bullish calls from analysts.

Upexi Inc. disclosed that it now holds 1,818,809 SOL, worth about $331 million, after acquiring another 100,000 SOL. The firm used proceeds from a $200 million raise involving equity and convertibles.

• More than half of Upexi’s holdings were purchased at a discount.
• Their staked tokens are projected to yield $26 million annually.
• CEO Allan Marshall touted the move as a model for altcoin treasury strategies.

A pseudonymous analyst, “Christiaan,” forecast a $400–$500 target for SOL during this bull run.

Technical Metrics:

• Traded in a $11.48 range July 22–23, with a high at $205.99
• Strong resistance at $203.81
• Volume peaked at 3.77M units
• Final-hour dip breached $200, falling to $198.95

Dogecoin Retreats After Failing to Break Resistance, Despite Whale Accumulation

DOGE has dropped over 4% midweek, hitting a key support level after bulls failed to clear $0.2867 earlier this week.

Whale Activity:
Large wallets holding 10 million+ DOGE now control 122.59 billion tokens, roughly 81% of total supply. This is just shy of last Friday’s all-time high of 122.69 billion.

Retail Activity:
Retail wallets holding <10,000 DOGE remain flat. They sold heavily between July 3 and July 15 but have since stabilized above 2.37 billion DOGE.

Technical Picture:

• Support: $0.2590 (previous May 11 high: $0.2597)
• Deeper support: $0.2145 (July 15 low)
• RSI at 82, showing overbought conditions
• MACD histogram is fading, suggesting trend reversal
• Golden Cross emerging as 50-day EMA approaches the 200-day EMA

PEPE Eyes 20% Surge as Open Interest Hits Record $1.02 Billion

PEPE holds near $0.000013, consolidating before what analysts say could be a breakout. The meme coin’s Open Interest has hit a record $1.02B, rising from $748.38M in mid-June.

Whale Accumulation:
Wallets holding between 100K and 100M PEPE have added 42.16 billion tokens in July, according to Santiment data.

Technical indicators point to a bullish continuation, with the current structure supporting a potential 20%+ rally.

The Day’s Takeaway

United States

• Stocks:
  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, while the Dow finished just 4 points below its own all-time record.
  • Dow: +507.85 pts (+1.14%) to 45,010.29
  • S&P 500: +49.29 pts (+0.78%) to 6,358.91
  • Nasdaq: +127.33 pts (+0.61%) to 21,020.02
  • Russell 2000: +34.37 pts (+1.53%) to 2,283.12
• Earnings Highlights:
  • Alphabet (GOOGL): Beat across the board, but shares dipped -1.64% post-close despite 14% YoY revenue growth and $2.31 EPS.
  • Tesla (TSLA): Missed on EPS ($0.40 vs $0.41) with 16% YoY net income decline. Free cash flow plunged 89%.
  • ServiceNow (NOW): Strong beat, stock surged 5.93%.
  • Chipotle (CMG): Met EPS, missed revenue, shares dropped 9.06%.
  • IBM: Beat on both lines but slid 4.7%.
  • T-Mobile (TMUS): Beat across metrics, stock flat.
  • CSX: Beat on EPS, revenue slight miss. Stock up 1.2%.
• Housing Market:
  • Existing Home Sales (June): Fell to 3.93M vs. 4.00M estimate
  • Median Price: Record high $435,300 (+2% YoY)
  • Inventory: 1.53M homes, 4.7 months of supply
  • First-time Buyers: 30% share (vs. 40% historical avg)
• Treasury Auction:
  • $13B in 20-year bonds sold at 4.935% yield, with a strong bid-to-cover ratio (2.79x), signaling solid demand.
• Policy & Politics:
  • Trump-DOJ: DOJ acknowledged Trump’s name appeared in Epstein-related documents; DOJ confirmed no further action.
  • AI Executive Order: President Trump signed EO 14179, removing development regulations and fast-tracking AI infrastructure, while banning DEI mandates in federal AI systems.
  • Trade: FT reports U.S.–EU closing in on 15% reciprocal tariff deal. EU could vote Thursday on €93B in retaliatory measures if no deal.

Canada

• Housing:
  • New Housing Price Index (June): -0.2% MoM (same as May)
  • YoY: -1.0%

Commodities

• Gold:
  • Dropped below $3,400, settling around $3,387 (-1.20%)
  • Hit by rising risk sentiment amid progress on U.S.–EU trade talks, despite USD weakness
• Silver:
  • Held near 14-year highs at $39.48, consolidating after a 3.33% rally this week
  • Momentum strong but overbought RSI (~73) signals caution near-term
• Crude Oil:
  • EIA Data: Crude inventories fell 3.169M barrels vs -1.565M est.
    • Gasoline: -0.908M
    • Distillates: +2.931M
    • Cushing: +0.455M
  • WTI: Trading at $64.95, down -0.69%, hovering near 100-DMA

Europe

• Trade Talks:
  • EU and U.S. reportedly nearing deal to impose 15% reciprocal tariffs on key goods
  • EU preparing €93B in retaliatory tariffs if talks fail
  • White House suggests Japan trade model could guide EU terms
  • Trump pushing EU to fully open markets, especially for U.S. autos and standards

Asia

• Japan Trade Agreement:
  • Japan to buy 100 Boeing planes
  • Defense spending to rise to $17B/year, up from $14B
  • U.S. agricultural purchases to reach $8B, rice imports up 75%
  • Seen as a template for future EU negotiations
  • U.S. to select projects financed by Japan via equity, loans, and guarantees

Crypto

• Broad Market:
  • Total crypto market cap slipped below $4T, down nearly 6% in 24 hours
  • Bitcoin: Below $120K; Ethereum, XRP, Solana also fell amid profit-taking
• Solana (SOL):
  • Trading at $198, up 20% in 7 days
  • Upexi Inc. boosted holdings to 1.8M SOL (~$331M), staking most for 8% yield
  • Analyst “Christiaan” sees $500 target in current bull cycle
• Dogecoin (DOGE):
  • Down 4% amid failed breakout above $0.2867
  • Whales hold 122.59B DOGE (81% of supply)
  • RSI at 82, flashing overbought
• Pepe (PEPE):
  • Holding near $0.000013
  • Open Interest hit $1.02B, new ATH
  • Whale accumulation ongoing; 20% rally possible
• XRP:
  • Down from $3.66 to $3.27
  • Futures OI cooling; RSI turning lower
  • On-chain platform activity in Brazil expanding via VERT
• Wall Street & Tokenization:
  • Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon to enable tokenized fund investing
  • Partners include BlackRock, Fidelity, Federated Hermes
  • Part of growing institutional adoption wave, post-GENIUS Act regulatory framework