Daily Market Roundup

North America News

Major Stock Indices Close Higher as S&P Hits Record Levels, Palantir Tumbles on Defense Spending Cuts

Major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 reaching another record high. However, not all stocks shared in the optimism. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) experienced a sharp decline, tumbling over 12% after reports surfaced that President Trump had ordered the Pentagon to prepare for an 8% cut in defense spending over the next five years.

Key Market Movements:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 71.25 points (+0.16%) to close at 44,627.59.
• S&P 500: Gained 14.57 points (+0.24%) to finish at 6,144.15, marking a new record high.
• NASDAQ Composite: Rose 14.99 points (+0.07%) to end at 20,056.25.
• Russell 2000: Declined 7.89 points (-0.34%) to close at 2,282.45.

Palantir’s Plunge: Palantir’s stock price plummeted after President Trump reportedly directed the Pentagon to explore significant budget cuts. The company’s shares fell $15 (-12%) to $109.48 after hitting an intraday all-time high of $125.41 earlier in the session. Analysts noted that while the stock’s recent surge—nearly doubling from its January low—made it susceptible to profit-taking, the proposed defense spending cuts added downside pressure. Key support levels now sit at $106.43 and $101.95.

Meta Platforms (META), another high-flying stock, also saw declines for the second consecutive day, dropping $12.60 (-1.76%) to $703.77. This marks a pause in its impressive 20-day winning streak.

U.S. Treasury 20-Year Bond Auction Sees Weak Demand Amid Rising Yields

The U.S. Treasury’s auction of $16 billion in 20-year bonds concluded with lackluster results, reflecting subdued investor appetite amid rising yields. The high yield for the auction came in at 4.830%, slightly above the When-Issued (WI) level of 4.820% at the time of the sale, resulting in a tail of 1.0 basis points. This marks a modest deterioration compared to the six-month average tail of +1.2 basis points.

Key metrics from the auction paint a mixed picture:

• Bid-to-Cover Ratio: The bid-to-cover ratio stood at 2.43x, below the six-month average of 2.54x, signaling weaker overall demand.
• Direct Bidders: Domestic demand, represented by direct bidders, was stronger than usual, accounting for 19.5% of the auction versus the six-month average of 16.9%.
• Indirect Bidders: International demand, measured by indirect bidders, fell short, capturing only 63.0% of the auction compared to the six-month average of 67.5%.
• Dealers: Primary dealers were left holding a larger-than-average share of the bonds at 17.5%, up from the six-month average of 15.6%.

The results suggest that while domestic investors showed relatively strong interest, international participation lagged, leaving dealers saddled with a higher proportion of the issuance. This imbalance highlights ongoing challenges in attracting robust foreign demand amid elevated yields and uncertain global economic conditions.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate Holds Steady at 2.3% for Q1 2025

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model maintained its growth estimate for Q1 2025 at 2.3%, unchanged from the previous reading. The update followed the release of the U.S. Census Bureau’s housing starts report, which provided additional data but did not alter the overall outlook.

In its latest assessment, the Atlanta Fed noted:

“After this morning’s housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on February 19, unchanged from February 14 after rounding.”

The steady projection underscores a moderate pace of economic expansion, consistent with recent trends. The next update to the GDPNow estimate is scheduled for February 28, which will incorporate additional economic data releases, including durable goods orders and personal consumption expenditures.

While the current estimate reflects stability, market participants will closely monitor upcoming reports for signs of acceleration or deceleration in economic activity as the quarter progresses.

US January Housing Starts Fall 9.8%, Permits Hold Steady

• US housing starts fell to 1.366 million units in January, missing expectations of 1.39 million and dropping from 1.515 million in December.
• Building permits, however, rose slightly to 1.483 million from 1.46 million expected, suggesting some stability in future construction activity.
• The single-family home segment remained flat at 996,000 units, pointing to lingering affordability issues.
• Homebuilder Toll Brothers warned that lower-end home sales are struggling, citing affordability constraints and growing inventories.
• NAHB homebuilder sentiment recently hit a five-month low, indicating a challenging environment for the housing market.

US MBA Mortgage Applications Decline -6.6%

US mortgage demand slumped after a brief start-of-year rally, reflecting rising borrowing costs.

📊 Mortgage Data:

• Total applications: -6.6% (Prev. +2.3%)
• 30-year mortgage rate: 6.93% (Prev. 6.95%)

🔹 Market Impact:

• Higher rates & affordability concerns weighing on housing demand

Fed’s Bostic: Inflation Path Uncertain, Policy Remains Restrictive

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic expressed cautious optimism about the economic outlook during an interview with Yahoo Finance. While acknowledging the difficulty of factoring all potential policy changes into forecasts, Bostic emphasized the need for patience in assessing inflation trends.

Key Takeaways:

• Inflation Uncertainty: Bostic noted that January’s CPI data raises questions about whether it represents a temporary bump or the start of a new trend. Confidence in the 2025 outlook has diminished due to mixed signals.
• Policy Stance: The Fed did not cut rates too aggressively last year, and monetary policy remains restrictive. Bostic reiterated the importance of pausing to observe how the economy evolves before making further adjustments.
• Balance Sheet Reduction: Bostic voiced strong support for reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, aligning with ongoing efforts to normalize monetary policy.
• Business Optimism: Many business leaders remain optimistic about regulatory changes, believing they could offset cost pressures and boost productivity.

Bostic’s comments highlight the Fed’s cautious approach to navigating inflation risks while balancing economic growth and stability.

Apple Unveils iPhone 16E and Cellular Modem, Microsoft Showcases Quantum Chip

• Apple introduced the iPhone 16E, a budget-friendly model priced at $599.99, featuring Face ID instead of the classic Touch ID and powered by the A18 chip.
• The launch also included Apple’s first cellular modem chip, marking its push into semiconductor development.
• Apple shares remained flat (-0.2%), with little investor excitement over the new announcements.
• Meanwhile, Microsoft introduced its quantum computing chip, Majorana 1, with CNBC reporting a 10% rally in quantum computing stocks.

Trump Reportedly Seeks Expanded Deal with China, Including Nuclear Security

• The New York Times reports that Trump wants to expand US-China negotiations beyond trade, potentially including nuclear weapons security.
• The broader agreement would go beyond China’s commitment to buy US goods, seeking strategic security guarantees.
• Advisers including Howard Lutnick, Scott Bessent, and Elon Musk have been encouraging Trump to engage in deeper negotiations with China.
• The White House has not finalized its demands, but this move signals a potential shift in US-China relations.

JP Morgan: Trump’s Social Media Activity Losing Market Influence

JP Morgan analysts report that Trump’s social media influence on markets has significantly diminished since his first term.

📊 Key Findings:

• Trump posted 126 trade-related statements, but only 10% had notable market impacts
• In contrast, during 2018-2019, he was moving markets 60 times per week via Twitter/X
• Tariff-related tweets remain the most impactful—his 25% tariff threats on Mexico/Canada caused:
  • -2% drop in the peso 🇲🇽
  • -1% decline in the Canadian dollar 🇨🇦

🔹 Conclusion:

• Broader market reaction to Trump’s posts has weakened
• However, tariffs remain a key market-moving factor

Bank of America Survey: Trade War Fears Rise as U.S. Equities Look Overvalued

A Bank of America (BofA) fund manager survey shows growing concerns about a global trade war, overtaking inflation as the biggest risk to markets.

🔹 Key Survey Findings:

• 42% of fund managers now see trade war risks as the biggest threat to financial markets (Up from 30% in January)
• 89% of respondents believe U.S. equities are historically overvalued—the highest level since April 2001

🔹 Market Impact:

• Geopolitical risks & economic uncertainty could weigh on U.S. stock valuations
• Potential trade war-induced recession remains a major tail risk

Trump’s Proposed 25% Tariffs on Autos, Pharma & Semiconductors

The April 2 deadline looms for Trump’s proposed 25% import tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips.

• Targeted Sectors: Primarily European and Asian imports, with expectations of higher consumer prices and global supply chain disruptions.
• EU Negotiations Ongoing: European officials are engaging with the White House to mitigate impacts, but Trump insists on enforcing “fair trade terms.”
• Inflation Concerns: Analysts warn these tariffs could contribute to inflationary pressures and heighten trade tensions.

Commodities News

Silver Prices Recover as Investors Weigh Trump’s Tariff Threats

• Silver rebounded to $33.00 after dipping to $32.50 intraday, as investors remained cautious over Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
• The threat of a 25% tariff on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor chips added to global economic concerns.
• While safe-haven demand remains strong, optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace talks is limiting silver’s upside.
• FOMC minutes due later today could further impact silver prices, especially if the Fed signals a prolonged period of tight monetary policy.

WTI Crude Rises Above $71.50 Amid Russian Supply Disruptions

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $71.70, driven by supply disruptions in Russia following a Ukrainian drone attack on a key pipeline.
• The attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) reduced oil flows by 30-40%, equivalent to 380,000 barrels per day.
• Concerns over a potential trade war following Trump’s proposed tariffs on key imports could limit further price gains.
• Markets will closely watch US tariff developments, as additional restrictions could significantly impact global trade and energy markets.

Trump Signals Possible Ban on Venezuela Oil Exports

President Trump stated that he “may not allow” Venezuela to export oil and petroleum products through companies like Chevron.

🔹 Key Considerations:

• Venezuela could offer to take back U.S. illegal migrants to negotiate exemptions
• Trump may be securing alternative oil sources, such as Iran, in exchange for nuclear deal concessions

🔹 Market Impact:

• Reduced Venezuelan exports would support oil prices
• OPEC+ decisions on supply adjustments will also play a role

Goldman Sachs: OPEC+ Likely to Delay Production Increases to July

Goldman Sachs analysts project that OPEC+ will postpone planned oil supply increases from April to July due to ongoing market concerns.

• A potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal and associated sanctions relief on Russian oil are not expected to significantly impact global supply.
• Oil markets remain cautious, with Brent crude trading around $81.20 per barrel and WTI near $76.10 per barrel in early trading.

Europe News

European Markets Reverse Gains as DAX Suffers Sharp Decline

• European equity markets turned sharply lower after initially setting record highs, with the DAX closing down 1.7% in a dramatic reversal.
• The outside reversal pattern in Germany’s DAX suggests strong profit-taking after its recent run-up.
• Other major indices also declined:
  • Stoxx 600: -1.0%
  • France CAC 40: -1.3%
  • UK FTSE 100: -0.7%
  • Spain IBEX 35: -1.75%
  • Italy FTSE MIB: -0.6%

Eurozone December Current Account Balance

• €50.5B (Prev. €34.6B)—Trade conditions normalizing post-Russia-Ukraine war

UK January CPI Higher Than Expected at +3.0%

The UK’s January CPI report showed inflation remained stubbornly high, complicating the Bank of England’s (BOE) rate-cut timeline.

📊 CPI Data:

• Headline CPI (YoY): +3.0% (Exp. +2.8%; Prev. +2.5%)
• Core CPI (YoY): +3.7% (Exp. +3.7%; Prev. +3.2%)
• Education costs surged +12.7% MoM due to VAT changes on private schools

🔹 Market Impact:

• BOE may delay rate cuts further 📉
• High services inflation (+5.0% from +4.4%) adds pressure

ECB’s Panetta & Schnabel Warn of Persistent Eurozone Weakness

🔹 ECB’s Fabio Panetta:

• Expected consumer spending-driven recovery has not materialized
• Eurozone economy weaker than expected

🔹 ECB’s Isabel Schnabel:

• Eurozone close to pausing or halting rate cuts
• Domestic inflation & wage growth remain elevated
• No expectation of rate hikes

Asia-Pacific & World News

Putin Welcomes Progress in US-Russia Talks on Ukraine, Energy Cooperation Discussed

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed high satisfaction with the outcome of the US-Russia negotiations on Ukraine.
• Putin confirmed that diplomatic missions between the two nations will resume and reiterated that Russia is ready to return to negotiations.
• He emphasized that Russia does not require mediators in peace discussions.
• The talks also covered cooperation in the Middle East and discussions on energy-related matters between the two nations.

Putin Warns Caspian Pipeline Consortium Repairs Will Take Time, Oil Prices May Rise

• Putin separately stated that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) will take time to restore after a drone attack damaged key infrastructure in southern Russia.
• The pipeline, which carries Kazakh oil to global markets, has lost 30-40% of its capacity, cutting daily oil flows by up to 380,000 barrels per day.
• Putin highlighted that Western-made equipment was damaged, making quick repairs “impossible.”
• This follows Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak’s warning that repairs could take several months, further tightening global oil supplies.

China Calls for Dialogue as US Tariffs Escalate Trade Tensions

• China’s Commerce Ministry criticized the latest US tariffs on Chinese goods, saying they undermine normal economic and trade relations.
• Despite the criticism, Beijing signaled willingness to negotiate and resolve trade concerns through equal dialogue and consultation.
• China also called for a “fair and predictable policy environment” to facilitate practical economic cooperation.

China’s Housing Market Struggles as New Home Prices Remain Flat

New home prices in China stagnated in January 2025, reflecting continued weakness in the property market despite government stimulus.

• Month-on-month: 0.0% change (unchanged from December)
• Year-on-year: -5.0% decline, slightly improving from -5.3% in December

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1705 (vs. estimate at 7.2807)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBoC injects CNY 538.9bln

• via 7-day reverse repos
• rate unchanged at 1.50%
• net drain is 19.1bn yuan given 558bn yuan mature today

Australia’s Q4 Wage Price Index Misses Expectations

Australia’s Q4 2024 Wage Price Index came in below expectations, signaling slower wage growth.

📊 Wage Growth Data:

• Quarter-on-quarter (QoQ): +0.7% (Exp. +0.8%; Prev. +0.8%)
• Year-on-year (YoY): +3.2% (Exp. +3.2%; Prev. +3.5%)

🔹 Impact on RBA Policy:

• Supports RBA’s cautious stance after yesterday’s rate cut to 4.1%
• No immediate rush for additional rate reductions

ANZ Forecasts Three More 25bp Rate Cuts from RBNZ

ANZ New Zealand now expects the RBNZ to lower rates in:

• April (-25bp to 3.50%)
• May (-25bp to 3.25%)
• July (-25bp to 3.00%)

🔹 Key Takeaways:

• Inflation outlook supports further easing ✅
• RBNZ confidence in economic recovery remains strong ✅
• NZD weakened following rate cut announcement 📉

RBNZ Governor Orr Hints at More Rate Cuts in April & May

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr stated that additional rate cuts are likely, with two 25bp reductions expected in April & May.

• Current OCR: 3.75%
• Projected OCR (July 2025): 3.0%

🔹 Key Risks:

• Slower economic growth in the near term
• US tariffs impacting global demand

RBNZ Cuts Interest Rates by 50 Basis Points to 3.75%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50bps to 3.75%, in line with expectations.

📊 Updated Economic Projections:

• OCR Forecasts:
  • 3.45% by June 2025 (Prev: 3.83%)
  • 3.1% by March 2026 (Prev: 3.43%)
• Inflation: 2.2% by March 2026 (Prev: 2.3%)
• NZD Trade-Weighted Index (TWI): 67.5% by March 2026 (Prev: 69.5%)

🔹 RBNZ Statement Highlights:

• Inflation is gradually returning to target 📉
• Economy remains subdued, but a recovery is expected in 2025
• Further rate cuts possible through 2025

New Zealand’s Q4 Producer Price Index Falls

New Zealand’s Q4 2024 PPI (Producer Price Index) signals further inflation easing:

• PPI Output: -0.1% q/q (Prev: +1.5%)
• PPI Input: -0.9% q/q (Prev: +1.9%)

This decline in input prices supports expectations of another 50bps rate cut at the RBNZ’s April meeting.

BOJ’s Takata: Japan’s Long-Term Rates Aligned with Economic State

BOJ’s Hajime Takata commented on Japan’s monetary policy trajectory:

🔹 Key Takeaways:

• Real interest rates remain negative
• BOJ must allow market-driven yield levels
• Inflation risks remain, but outlook has stabilized

Japan’s Trade & Economic Data Show Mixed Signals

Japan’s latest trade and economic data indicate a recovery in exports and machinery orders, though the trade deficit widened significantly.

📊 Trade & Economic Data:

• Exports (Jan, YoY): +7.2% (Exp. +7.9%; Prev. +2.8%)
• Imports (Jan, YoY): +16.7% (Exp. +9.7%; Prev. +1.7%)
• Core Machinery Orders (Dec, YoY): +4.3% (Exp. +6.9%; Prev. +10.3%)
• Trade Balance (Jan): -¥2.76T (Exp. -¥2.1T; Prev. ¥132.5B)

🔹 Key Takeaways:

• Exports improved, led by semiconductor and automotive shipments
• Imports surged, reflecting higher energy prices
• Manufacturing sentiment rose for the second straight month (+3 vs. +2 in Jan)

Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Revises BOJ Rate Hike Forecast to July

Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities has moved up its Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike forecast to July 2025, previously expecting a hike in Q4 2025.

🔹 Revised Rate Path:

• July 2025: BOJ to raise rates to 0.75% 📈
• January 2026: Further hike to 1.0%

🔹 Key Reasons for the Change:

• Persistent inflationary pressures exceeding expectations
• Political concerns in Japan over yen depreciation and potential U.S. scrutiny

BOJ’s Takata: Interest Rate Hikes Possible if Economy Aligns with Forecasts

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Takata stated that if Japan’s economy meets BOJ forecasts, additional rate hikes could follow.

🔹 Key Takeaways:

• Real interest rates remain deeply negative despite January’s rate hike.
• Consumption is rising moderately, and firms maintain a bullish investment outlook.
• Inflation expected to approach the 2% target, driven by domestic wage growth and weak yen.

Japan’s Parliament Approves New BOJ Board Member Junko Koeda

Japan’s Diet (parliament) has officially approved Junko Koeda as a new BOJ monetary policy board member, finalizing her appointment.

• Koeda previously received approval from the Upper House and today passed the Lower House vote.

J.P. Morgan Upgrades Singapore Equities to ‘Overweight’

J.P. Morgan has upgraded Singapore equities to overweight, citing:

• Attractive valuations & high dividends
• Government measures boosting market confidence
• Economic stimulus supporting domestic growth

🔹 Target for Straits Times Index (STI): 4,200 points (+6% from current levels)
🔹 STI recently hit 3,949.65, up 4% in 2025, following a 17% rally in 2024.

Crypto Market Pulse

Ethereum Transaction Fees Hit Record Lows, Setting Stage for Potential Bullish Surge Above $2,850

Ethereum Price Today: $2,700

Ethereum (ETH) has reclaimed the $2,700 level despite its average transaction fees plummeting to an all-time low. This decline in fees presents a unique opportunity for the network to attract new users and potentially fuel a bullish push above the critical resistance at $2,850.

All-Time Low Transaction Fees: A Double-Edged Sword

Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals that Ethereum’s average transaction fees have reached their lowest point ever. The last time fees were this low was during the August 2024 crypto market downturn, triggered by geopolitical tensions involving the Israel-Hamas conflict. Following that period, ETH consolidated for four months before regaining momentum.

The current drop in fees is attributed to reduced activity on Ethereum Layer 1 (L1), compounded by the migration of users to competing networks like Solana (SOL) and Layer 2 (L2) solutions. This shift has directly impacted Ethereum’s fee structure, creating a ripple effect on both demand and supply dynamics.

Impact on Demand and Supply

Lower transaction fees have dampened demand for ETH, as fewer users are required to purchase the asset to pay for gas. Additionally, Ethereum’s burn mechanism—introduced during the August 2021 London hard fork—has seen a reduction in the amount of ETH being burned, leading to a slight increase in the token’s circulating supply.

While rising supply and waning demand typically signal bearish sentiment, analysts at Santiment offer a contrarian perspective. In a recent X post, they noted:

“When users aren’t paying high prices to move their ETH or tokens, it often bodes well for mid-to-long-term price outlooks. Reduced costs lower barriers to entry, making it easier for new participants to join the ecosystem.”

This suggests that lower fees could reinvigorate interest in Ethereum, driving up network utility and laying the groundwork for future growth.

Institutional Interest Remains Strong

Despite the subdued fee environment, institutional investors continue to show confidence in Ethereum. US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $4.6 million on Tuesday, according to Coinglass data. This indicates sustained institutional appetite for ETH, even amid challenging market conditions.

Technical Analysis: Can Bulls Break $2,850?

On the technical front, Ethereum is currently trading within a rectangular channel on the weekly chart. The $2,850 level remains a formidable resistance point due to prevailing risk-off sentiment among traders. However, key support at $2,560—backed by the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs)—provides a solid foundation for potential upward momentum.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: $2,560
• Resistance: $2,850

If the $2,560 support holds firm, bulls may attempt to breach the $2,850 resistance. A successful breakout could pave the way for further gains, although the path upward won’t be without obstacles. Notably, Ethereum faces significant resistance near the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 50-day SMA, which converge just above the psychological $3,000 mark.

Conversely, failure to maintain support at $2,560 could lead to downside risks. A weekly candlestick close below $2,200 would invalidate the bullish thesis and signal deeper corrections.

Liquidations Highlight Market Volatility

In the past 24 hours, Ethereum futures traders experienced liquidations totaling $12.34 million on long positions and $17.89 million on short positions, per Coinglass data. These figures underscore the heightened volatility surrounding ETH and highlight the importance of cautious positioning as the market navigates uncertain waters.

Conclusion: A Turning Point for Ethereum?

Ethereum’s record-low transaction fees present both challenges and opportunities. While reduced fees reflect diminished network activity, they also lower barriers to entry, potentially attracting new users and reigniting interest in the platform. Coupled with strong institutional inflows and robust technical support, these factors create a favorable setup for a potential bullish breakout above $2,850.

However, sustaining such a move will require overcoming significant resistance levels and maintaining investor confidence. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance zones, as well as broader market sentiment, to gauge Ethereum’s next major move.

Dogecoin Eyes $0.50 Target as Elon Musk Enters $44 Billion Investment Talks for X

Dogecoin (DOGE) showed signs of a mild recovery on Wednesday, gaining 0.30% to approach the $0.26 resistance level. The rally coincided with reports that Elon Musk is in talks to raise $44 billion in funding for his social media company, X, reigniting speculation about DOGE’s potential role in the platform’s financial ecosystem.

Key Drivers:

• Musk’s Influence: Elon Musk’s corporate maneuvers have historically influenced Dogecoin’s price action. The latest funding talks for X have sparked optimism among traders, who are betting on DOGE’s integration into X’s payment infrastructure.
• Regulatory Progress: X Payments LLC, the financial arm of X, has secured money transmitter licenses in 22 states, paving the way for potential payment services akin to PayPal and Venmo. Musk’s ambition to transform X into an “everything app” includes a payments component, though regulatory scrutiny has slowed implementation.
• Market Sentiment: Rising trading volumes suggest that speculative traders are positioning themselves for imminent volatility, eyeing gains from DOGE’s historical correlation with Musk’s ventures.

If Musk succeeds in rolling out financial services on X, Dogecoin could see increased utility, potentially driving prices toward the $0.50 target.

Meme Coins Shed $5 Billion in Open Interest Amid Market Downturn and Scam Concerns

Dogecoin (DOGE), PEPE, Shiba Inu (SHIB), and other top meme coins have seen their open interest (OI) decline by $5 billion since December 9, reflecting waning investor sentiment amid the broader crypto market downturn. The meme coin sector has been hit hard by declining enthusiasm, exacerbated by controversies and pump-and-dump schemes.

Key Insights:

• Massive Declines: DOGE witnessed the largest drop, shedding over 52% of its OI ($2 billion). Similarly, PEPE, SHIB, and BONK saw declines of 71%, 74%, and 75%, respectively.
• LIBRA Controversy: The crash of Argentine President Javier Milei-related meme token LIBRA, which plummeted 89% within hours, has raised concerns about the safety of celebrity-endorsed meme coins. Bubblemaps revealed that 82% of LIBRA’s supply was controlled by a few wallets, fueling accusations of a pump-and-dump scheme.
• Market Impact: The controversy surrounding LIBRA has destabilized the meme coin sector, contributing to a broader loss of confidence among retail investors. MEXC COO Tracy Jin warned that the crypto market could face prolonged consolidation if investors continue falling victim to meme coin scams.

Performance Snapshot:

• DOGE: -3% weekly loss
• PEPE: -8% weekly loss
• SHIB: -4% weekly loss

The meme coin sector is down nearly 3% overall, with major tokens struggling to regain momentum.

Solana Bears Gain Momentum as $170 Support Wobbles Amid Declining Volumes

Solana (SOL) continued its downward trajectory on Wednesday, stabilizing around the $170 mark after a five-day losing streak. The cryptocurrency has shed 15% of its value over the past four days, signaling growing bearish sentiment among traders. A cluster of $138 million in leveraged positions suggests that Solana’s most significant support lies at the $160 level, which could be tested in the coming days.

Key Observations:

• Declining Volumes: Trading volumes have been on the decline, indicating a lack of buyer interest and insufficient momentum for a sustained recovery.
• SEC Speculation: Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged CoinShares’ Litecoin (LTC) and XRP ETFs last Friday, Solana has slipped in investor mindshare. Speculation is mounting that a decision on SOL ETFs may take longer than anticipated, further dampening sentiment.
• Technical Weakness: The flat price action and lack of strong buying interest suggest that Solana is struggling to find buyers, placing the $170 support level under significant pressure.

With bears showing no signs of relenting, Solana could face another major price correction if the $160 support fails to hold.

Former Binance CEO CZ Advocates for Crypto Wallets Over Exchanges

• Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, the former CEO of Binance, believes crypto wallets should replace exchanges for everyday use, leaving exchanges for institutional traders.
• In a discussion with Trust Wallet CEO Eowyn Chen, CZ emphasized that wallets are now evolving into multi-purpose financial tools, not just storage.
• Trust Wallet now boasts nearly 200 million downloads, with rapid growth in DeFi and digital identity services.
• Governments exploring blockchain-based identity solutions may also integrate crypto wallets for secure credentials, signaling a broader shift in blockchain adoption.

Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Hitting $500K by 2029

Standard Chartered maintains an ambitious $500K Bitcoin price target by 2029, citing:

🔹 Institutional Adoption & ETF Growth

• Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund acquired 4,700 BTC via BlackRock’s ETF
• Hedge funds & banks leading Q4 institutional Bitcoin buying

🔹 Market Impact:

• More regulation = more institutional entry ✅
• BTC ETF demand fueling long-term bullish outlook 📈

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

The day’s market activity showcased a blend of resilience and vulnerability, with U.S. equities reaching new milestones while select sectors faced headwinds. Geopolitical tensions, fiscal policy shifts, and global economic uncertainties continued to influence investor sentiment across asset classes.

U.S. Markets: Record Highs Amid Selective Weakness

Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 hitting another record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite also posted modest gains, reflecting broad-based optimism. However, not all stocks participated in the rally. Palantir Technologies plunged over 12% following reports that President Trump had ordered the Pentagon to prepare for an 8% cut in defense spending over the next five years. The proposed cuts weighed heavily on defense-related stocks, underscoring potential challenges for contractors and suppliers. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms paused its recent winning streak, declining for the second consecutive day, signaling a possible cooling-off period for some of the market’s standout performers.

Commodities: Energy and Gold Respond to Supply and Policy Dynamics

In the commodities space, WTI crude oil climbed above $71.50 after a Ukrainian drone attack disrupted flows through a key Russian pipeline, cutting daily supplies by up to 380,000 barrels. Concerns over President Trump’s proposed tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors added complexity to energy market dynamics, as traders weighed the potential impact on global trade and demand.

Gold prices retreated from record highs after the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts. While safe-haven demand remained robust amid escalating trade war fears, central bank buying continued to support long-term bullish sentiment for the precious metal.

Europe: Profit-Taking Weighs on Equity Markets

European equity markets reversed earlier gains, with Germany’s DAX leading declines after a sharp reversal. Profit-taking and geopolitical risks dampened investor sentiment, highlighting ongoing concerns about global economic stability. Meanwhile, institutional optimism emerged in select regions, with J.P. Morgan upgrading Singapore equities to overweight, citing attractive valuations and government-backed stimulus measures.

Mexico’s central bank lowered its 2025 GDP forecast to 0.6%, reflecting sluggish growth prospects for emerging markets. Sub-1% growth raises questions about structural challenges and external pressures, though improved trade terms with the U.S. could provide some upside in the longer term.

Cryptocurrencies: Mixed Sentiment Across Meme Coins and Major Players

In the cryptocurrency space, Solana (SOL) struggled to find buyers, stabilizing around $170 but facing significant downside risks if the $160 support level fails. Declining trading volumes and waning investor interest underscored bearish sentiment. Dogecoin (DOGE), on the other hand, gained 0.30%, driven by Elon Musk’s $44 billion investment talks for X. Speculative traders are positioning themselves for potential integration of DOGE into X’s payment infrastructure, though regulatory hurdles remain.

Top meme coins like DOGE, PEPE, and Shiba Inu (SHIB) shed $5 billion in open interest since December, reflecting waning retail investor confidence amid scams and pump-and-dump schemes. Controversies like the LIBRA token crash have further destabilized the sector, raising concerns about the safety of celebrity-endorsed meme coins.

Global Economic and Policy Developments

The Trump administration’s directive for 8% annual defense budget cuts over five years marks a notable shift in fiscal priorities. While Congress must approve the plan, the proposal has already impacted defense-related stocks, highlighting potential risks for contractors and allies reliant on U.S. security guarantees.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the uncertainty surrounding inflation trends, supporting a cautious approach to monetary policy. The Fed’s focus on balance sheet reduction underscores its commitment to ensuring economic stability while monitoring evolving risks.