Daily Market Roundup

North America News

U.S. Stocks Rally but Extend Weekly Decline for Fourth Consecutive Week

Despite a strong daily rally, major U.S. indices remained negative for the fourth consecutive week.

Friday’s Gains:

• S&P 500: +2.13% (↑117.42 points) to 5,638.94
• NASDAQ: +2.61% (↑451.07 points) to 17,754.09
• Dow Jones: +1.65% (↑634.62 points) to 41,488.79
• Russell 2000: +2.53%, but down 1.51% for the week

Weekly Performance:

• S&P 500: -2.27%
• NASDAQ: -2.43%
• Dow Jones: -3.07%

The “Magnificent 7” Stocks:

• Nvidia: +5.27% today, +7.97% weekly
• Meta: +2.87% today, -2.89% weekly
• Microsoft: +2.58% today, -1.21% weekly
• Amazon: +2.09% today, -0.65% weekly
• Apple: +1.82% today, -10.7% weekly (Biggest weekly decline)
• Tesla: +3.86% today, -4.83% weekly
• Alphabet: +1.68% today, -4.81% weekly

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Dow Jones: -2.48%
• S&P 500: -4.13%
• NASDAQ: -8.06%
• Russell 2000: -8.34%

Despite today’s strong rebound, continued weakness in tech stocks, trade tensions, and inflation fears have led to four straight weeks of losses.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Since 2022

The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for March came in at 57.9, significantly below the 63.1 estimate, and the lowest reading since November 2022.

Key Breakdown:

• Current Conditions: 63.5 (vs. 65.0 expected).
• Future Expectations: 54.2 (vs. 64.3 expected).
• 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 4.9% (up from 4.3% last month).
• 5-Year Inflation Expectations: 3.9% (up from 3.5%).

This sharp drop suggests consumer concerns over inflation and economic uncertainty are intensifying, which could impact spending trends and Federal Reserve policy.

Looking at the breakdown from a political standpoint:

For Dems:

• Consumer sentiment fell from 51.3 to 41.4
• Conditions fell from 73.9 to 62.0.
• Expectations fell from 36.8 to 28.2

For Rep:

• Consumer sentiment fell from 86.7 to 83.9
• Conditions rose from 55.7 to 65.4
• Expectations fell from 106.6 to 95.7

For Independents:

• Consumer sentiment fell from 62.6 to 57.2
• Conditions fell from 68.0 to 65.8
• Expectations fell from 59.1 to 51.8

From the Director Joanne Hsu

Consumer sentiment slid another 11% this month, with declines seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024. While current economic conditions were little changed, expectations for the future deteriorated across multiple facets of the economy, including personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets. Many consumers cited the high level of uncertainty around policy and other economic factors; frequent gyrations in economic policies make it very difficult for consumers to plan for the future, regardless of one’s policy preferences. Consumers from all three political affiliations are in agreement that the outlook has weakened since February. Despite their greater confidence following the election, Republicans posted a sizable 10% decline in their expectations index in March. For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index declined an even steeper 12 and 24%, respectively.

Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% last month to 4.9% this month, the highest reading since November 2022 and marking three consecutive months of unusually large increases of 0.5 percentage points or more. This month’s rise was seen across all three political affiliations. Long-run inflation expectations surged from 3.5% in February to 3.9% in March. This is the largest month-over-month increase seen since 1993, stemming from a sizable rise among Independents, and followed an already-large increase in February.

J.P. Morgan Cuts 2025 U.S. Growth Outlook to 1.6%

J.P. Morgan has revised its U.S. growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.6% from 1.9%, citing:

• Policy uncertainty, including tax changes and regulatory risks.
• New U.S. tariffs raising consumer and business costs.
• A slowdown in consumer spending as inflation persists.
• Retaliatory tariffs dampening exports, weighing on industrial production.

The downgrade signals heightened economic risks heading into 2025, with concerns that slower growth could impact Federal Reserve rate decisions.

Witkoff NSC: US presented a bridge proposal to extend the cease-fire in Gaza

• Geopolitical news from the US Natural Security Council

• US presented a bridge proposal to extend the cease-fire in Gaza.
• Proposed extension allow time to negotiate a framework for a permanent cease-fire
• Bridge proposal must be implemented soon and dual US – Israel citizen Edan Alexander must be released immediately
• Hamas privately making entirely impractical demands without a permanent cease-fire
• Hamas aware of deadline, US will respond accordingly if deadline passes

Treasury Secretary Bessent: “We Must Avoid a Recursive Biden-flation”

In an interview with Breitbart, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned about inflation risks, stating:

• The administration is “very vigilant” in preventing inflation from resurging.
• Efforts are underway to reduce absolute price levels through deregulation and lower interest rates for housing and auto loans.

Jeff Gundlach: 60% Chance of U.S. Recession, Gold to Hit $4,000

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach outlined his economic forecast, predicting a 60% chance of a U.S. recession and gold surging to $4,000.

Key points:

• U.S. stocks are overvalued relative to historical trends.
• European equities are outperforming unusually early in 2025.
• Copper and gold prices remain strong, but the copper-gold ratio is no longer a reliable Treasury yield predictor.
• Crude oil prices are now a more accurate indicator for interest rate trends.
• The de-inversion of the Treasury yield curve signals rising recession risks.

Gundlach also criticized excessive reliance on tech stocks, stating:
“The momentum stocks—particularly the ‘Magnificent 7’—were seen as invulnerable, but no sector is immune to market cycles.”

Walmart Toy Supplier Warns of Higher Prices Due to Tariffs

California-based MGA Entertainment, a major toy supplier to Walmart, is warning of price hikes due to new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports.

• CEO Isaac Larian stated that costs will be passed to consumers, making toys more expensive.
• 40% of production will be moved to India, Vietnam, and Indonesia to mitigate tariff exposure.
• Returning toy manufacturing to the U.S. was dismissed as unrealistic due to labor costs and lack of skilled workers.

China currently produces 77% of U.S. toys, according to the Toy Association.

JPMorgan Criticizes U.S. Tariffs on Canada, Calls Policy “Illiterate”

As U.S. and Canadian officials meet, JPMorgan released a scathing report, labeling the U.S. trade stance toward Canada as “economically, politically, and geologically illiterate.”

Key findings:

1. Canada is the U.S.’s second-largest trading partner but accounts for only 3% of the U.S. trade deficit.
2. If discounted oil and gas exports are removed, the U.S. actually runs a trade surplus with Canada.
3. Trump’s claim of a $200 billion Canadian subsidy is mathematically impossible, even when factoring in defense spending.

US Sec. of State Rubio: There is reason to be cautiously optimistic on Ukraine Russia

• Will reconvene after Witkoff returns from Russia

• There is reason to be cautiously optimistic on Ukraine/Russian situation
• Will reconvene once Witcoff returns from his trip to Russia this week
• Pres. Trump has options

Meanwhile Ukraine’s Zelenskyy is saying:

• Situation in Kursk region is very difficult
• Ukraine’s operation in Kursk fulfilled its objectives

Canada’s Manufacturing Sales Rise 1.7% in January, Led by Auto Sector

Canada’s manufacturing sector posted solid gains in January, with sales rising 1.7% month-over-month, though below the 2.0% forecast.

Sector Highlights:

• Motor Vehicles: +11.1%, reaching the highest level since November 2023.
• Petroleum & Coal: +4.7%, supported by rising energy demand.
• Chemical Products: -7.4%, marking the largest decline in the sector.

Provincial Performance:

• Ontario: +1.7% to $31.1B, driven by auto sales (+12.6%).
• Alberta: +2.9% to $9.0B, its strongest performance since September 2023.
• Newfoundland & Labrador: -26.9%, led by a 38.1% drop in non-durable goods.

Inventory Trends:

• Total inventories: +1.2% to $121.2B.
• Raw materials: +2.1%, reflecting higher input costs.
• Finished goods: +1.6%, signaling stronger future exports.

Year-over-year, manufacturing sales increased 3.0%, reinforcing optimism about Canada’s economic recovery.

Mark Carney Sworn In as Canada’s New Prime Minister

Mark Carney was officially sworn in as Canada’s Prime Minister, replacing Justin Trudeau.

Key Statements:

• “This is a time of great consequence for our country.”
• Focus on affordability and national security.
• Plans for diplomatic visits to France and the UK.
• Dismissed speculation about Canada joining the U.S., stating:
  “Canada will never, in any way, shape, or form, be part of the United States.”

Carney’s leadership approach will be closely watched, particularly regarding trade policy and economic strategy.

Canada’s Foreign Minister: Strengthening Ties with Europe and the UK

Speaking after the G7 meeting, Canadian Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly emphasized closer cooperation with Europe and the UK amid shifting global trade policies.

Key Points:

• Coordination on tariffs: Canada will align its trade strategy with Mexico to counterbalance U.S. protectionism.
• Ukraine and Middle East: Canada supports a unified G7 response, with growing backing for a two-state solution.
• Security & sovereignty: Joly confirmed discussions on economic sovereignty, particularly in response to U.S. policies.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford: “Very Productive” U.S. Meeting

Ontario Premier Doug Ford expressed optimism following a key U.S. trade meeting, describing it as “the best meeting I’ve ever had in the U.S.”

Key remarks:

• Another meeting is scheduled for next week.
• No tariffs were removed, but discussions were positive.
• Ford noted that tensions appear to be easing and looks forward to further dialogue.

Canada’s Finance Minister: Dialogue Will Continue Until Tariffs Are Removed

Finance Minister Dominic Leblanc confirmed that discussions with the U.S. will remain ongoing, emphasizing that tariffs must be removed for effective trade talks.

Additional insights from Minister of Innovation François-Philippe Champagne:

• Tariffs are damaging to both sides of the border.
• A “reset” in trade relations is possible with the incoming Canadian Prime Minister.
• Discussions focused on supply chain integration and North American competitiveness.

Commodities News

Gold Hits $3,000 for the First Time Before Profit-Taking Pullback

Gold reached a historic milestone on Thursday, briefly touching $3,000 per ounce before retreating to $2,987 amid profit-taking.

Market outlook:

• The 100-hour moving average at $2,930 serves as a key near-term support level.
• Despite short-term corrections, gold’s bullish momentum remains intact amid geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty.

The key question: Can gold sustain levels above $3,000, or will further selling pressure emerge?

Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. Unchanged, Canada Sees Sharp Decline

The latest Baker Hughes Rig Count shows stability in U.S. drilling activity but a significant drop in Canada.

U.S. Rig Count (Unchanged at 592)

• Oil rigs: +1 to 487
• Gas rigs: -1 to 100
• Miscellaneous rigs: Unchanged at 5
• Offshore rigs: Unchanged at 14, down 10 year-over-year

Year-over-year, the U.S. rig count has declined by 37 rigs compared to 629 last year, with:

• Oil rigs down 23
• Gas rigs down 16
• Miscellaneous rigs up 2

Canada Rig Count (-35 to 199)

• Oil rigs: -31 to 139
• Gas rigs: -4 to 60
• Miscellaneous rigs: Unchanged

Compared to last year’s count of 207 rigs, Canada’s total is down 8 rigs, with oil rigs up 11 but gas rigs down 19.

The sharp decline in Canadian rigs reflects seasonal slowdowns and weaker demand outlooks, especially as tariff-related uncertainty continues to impact energy markets.

Oil Prices Weaken Amid Surplus Concerns – ING

Oil prices declined as broad risk-off sentiment and concerns over global economic growth weighed on the market. Brent crude settled 1.5% lower.

Key Market Trends (IEA Report):

• Non-OPEC+ supply is expected to grow by 1.5M bpd in 2025.
• Global demand forecast revised lower, with 2025 growth at just over 1M bpd.
• OPEC+ supply outlook uncertain, as future cuts depend on April’s decision.

Potential Risk:

• If OPEC+ unwinds production cuts, the oil market could face a surplus of up to 1M bpd, putting further downward pressure on prices.

Despite the current weakness, geopolitical risks and trade tensions could support oil prices in the longer term.

Gold Prices Break Out of Range, Eye $3,035 Target – Société Générale

Gold has broken out above the upper range it has been consolidating in since February, according to Société Générale.

Price Targets:

• Next resistance: $3,015
• Further upside: $3,035–$3,050

However, the daily MACD indicator suggests momentum is weakening, meaning a pullback to $2,880 could occur before further gains.

The breakout reflects strong demand amid global economic uncertainty, particularly as tariff risks, geopolitical tensions, and inflation concerns persist.

U.S. Natural Gas Storage Falls More Than Expected – ING

The latest EIA report shows that U.S. natural gas storage declined by 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) last week, surpassing expectations of 50 bcf.

Key Takeaways:

• Total storage now 11.9% below the five-year average.
• Initially boosted natural gas prices, but gains were limited by warmer weather forecasts.
• Short-term bullish outlook, but fundamentals remain mixed.

With seasonal demand expected to decline, natural gas markets could face renewed downward pressure unless unexpected cold weather drives additional demand.

Europe News

European Markets End Higher for the Day, Lower for the Week

European equities closed higher on Friday but declined over the week, reflecting a mix of short-term optimism and ongoing market concerns.

Daily Performance:

• German DAX: +1.65%
• France’s CAC 40: +1.14%
• UK’s FTSE 100: +1.05%
• Spain’s IBEX 35: +1.43%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.73%

Weekly Performance:

• DAX: -0.30%
• CAC 40: -1.14%
• FTSE 100: -0.55%
• IBEX 35: -1.90%
• FTSE MIB: +0.16%

Year-to-Date Gains:

• DAX: +15.22%
• CAC 40: +8.77%
• FTSE 100: +5.62%
• IBEX 35: +12.16%
• FTSE MIB: +13.07%

Despite weekly declines, European markets remain strong for 2025, supported by ECB rate-cut expectations and resilient corporate earnings.

Reuters Poll: Eurozone Economy to Grow 0.9% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026

A Reuters poll of economists forecasts Eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, showing little change from February’s projection (0.9% and 1.2%).

European Central Bank (ECB) outlook:

• ECB deposit rate expected to fall to 2.00% by year-end 2025, according to 40 of 75 economists surveyed.
• The ECB’s current deposit facility rate stands at 2.50%, following a 25-bps cut in the latest policy meeting—the sixth rate cut since June 2024.

Key takeaway: The ECB remains on track for further rate reductions as inflation gradually declines.

Germany’s Final February CPI Confirms 2.3% Inflation Rate

Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at +2.3% year-over-year in February, aligning with preliminary estimates.

Key takeaways:

• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP): +2.6%, revised down from 2.8% prelim.
• Core inflation eased to 2.7%, supporting expectations for further ECB rate cuts in the coming months.

Despite the decline, inflation remains above the 2% ECB target, indicating a prolonged disinflationary process.

Germany’s Wholesale Prices Rise 0.6% in February

Germany’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased 0.6% in February, slowing from 0.9% in January.

Year-over-year growth:

• +1.6% increase, largely driven by higher food, beverage, and tobacco prices.
• Coffee, tea, cocoa, and spices saw a 43.8% price surge at the wholesale level.

France’s Inflation Holds Steady at 0.8% in February

France’s final CPI confirmed 0.8% year-over-year inflation for February, unchanged from preliminary estimates.

• HICP (Harmonized CPI): 0.9%, in line with the preliminary reading.
• Core inflation eased to 1.3%, down from 1.4% in January, as services inflation fell from 2.5% to 2.2%.

The slowdown in core inflation signals further relief for the European Central Bank (ECB) in its monetary policy decisions.

Spain’s February CPI Confirms 3.0% Inflation Rate

Spain’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February stood at +3.0% year-over-year, matching the preliminary estimate.

• HICP: +2.9%, unchanged from the initial reading.
• Core inflation fell to 2.2%, down from 2.4% in January, bringing it closer to the ECB’s 2% target.

The downward trend in core inflation supports expectations of ECB rate cuts later in 2025.

UK GDP Contracts 0.1% in January, Raising Stagflation Fears

The UK economy shrank 0.1% month-over-month in January, missing expectations for a 0.1% expansion.

Sector Breakdown:

• Services output: +0.1% (met forecasts).
• Industrial production: -0.9% (vs. -0.1% expected).
• Manufacturing output: -1.1% (vs. 0.0% expected).
• Construction output: -0.2% (unchanged from prior).

Weakness in industrial and manufacturing sectors contributed to the decline, reinforcing concerns over stagflation risks in 2025.

German Chancellor Merz Unveils Defense and Spending Initiatives

Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced a landmark fiscal package, introducing exemptions for defense spending and establishing special funds for climate and transformation projects.

Key measures:

• Defense spending beyond 1% of GDP (for civil protection, cybersecurity, intelligence, and aid to attacked states) exempt from debt brake.
• €16 billion in additional state-level spending via debt financing.
• €500 billion special fund over 12 years, including:
  • €100 billion allocated for state-level spending.
  • €100 billion designated for climate and transformation initiatives.

Political response:

• Merz emphasized that Germany is committed to defending peace in Europe while maintaining fiscal discipline.
• SPD leadership praised the deal, calling it a “powerful boost” for Germany’s economy and security.

Germany’s Spending Plan Faces Political Hurdles

Germany’s proposed spending plan remains uncertain as Friedrich Merz faced resistance in parliament. Despite offering concessions, the Greens party remained unconvinced, accusing Merz of prioritizing personal political gains over national interests.

Key challenges:

• Merz needs a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and Bundesrat to pass the bill (489 of 733 lawmakers).
• The CDU/CSU alliance and SPD have 403 votes, meaning Merz still needs 86 more votes from the FDP and Greens.
• If no consensus is reached before the March 18 vote, the process could be delayed further.

Germany’s Greens Party Satisfied with Debt Deal Agreement

According to a Reuters report citing party sources, Germany’s Greens party has reached a final agreement on the debt deal with the incoming government.

The deal’s approval has fueled optimism in financial markets:

• The DAX index extended gains.
• German bond yields surged, with the 30-year yield climbing to 3.24%, nearing the October 2023 high of 3.26%.

French Finance Minister Calls Tariff Dispute an “Idiotic War”

French Finance Minister Éric Lombard dismissed U.S. tariff threats on French liquor as predictable but unnecessary, calling the escalating trade tensions “an idiotic war.”

EU’s Kallas: Russia Likely to Agree to Ceasefire with Conditions

European Commission President Kaja Kallas stated that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is likely, but conditions will be attached.

Key takeaways:

• The U.S. has advised G7 nations that Russia may attempt to extend negotiations by complicating the process.
• The EU’s role is critical, as no agreement can be implemented without European support.
• The red line remains unchanged: Ukraine must not cede territory as part of any deal.

Asia-Pacific & World News

China’s February M2 Money Supply Grows 7.0% as Loan Growth Slows

China’s M2 money supply grew 7.0% year-over-year, matching expectations. However, new yuan loans totaled ¥1.01 trillion, falling short of the ¥1.275 trillion forecast.

Year-to-date lending reached ¥6.14 trillion, slightly below last year’s ¥6.37 trillion. Beijing is encouraging more credit expansion to boost economic activity.

Shanghai Composite Reaches Yearly High as Chinese Stocks Rally

Chinese equities surged on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing 1.2% to its highest level of the year. The rally extended across broader Chinese markets:

• Shanghai Composite: +1.2%
• Hang Seng Index: +1.5%
• CSI 300 Index: +1.8%

The rebound follows a mid-week dip, signaling renewed investor confidence. Notably, domestic capital is flowing beyond tech stocks into broader sectors, reflecting growing optimism about China’s real economy.

Russia’s Putin: On talks with the US, situation is starting to move

• Putin speaks on the starts with US

• On talks with the US, situation is starting to move
• Let’s see what comes of it.
• On Trumps request to spare lives of Ukrainian troops, in case they surrender, we guarantee we will save their lives

Kremlin: U.S. and Russia Recognize Need for Trump-Putin Call

Following U.S. envoy Witkoff’s visit to Moscow, the Kremlin confirmed that both nations acknowledge the necessity of a Trump-Putin discussion.

• The timing of the call will be decided once Witkoff relays Moscow’s message to Trump.
• The Kremlin expressed “cautious optimism” about future diplomatic talks.
• Putin and Trump align on some points, but significant negotiation work remains.

Australian Dollar Stuck in a Tight Range – Westpac

Westpac analysts describe the Australian dollar (AUD) as being “increasingly immobilized,” caught between competing market narratives.

Key insights from the report:

• The medium-term AUD outlook is improving as U.S. growth risks rise, weakening the USD’s yield advantage.
• Tariff uncertainty and inconsistent U.S. policy messaging are undermining global confidence, impacting AUD sentiment.
• The April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline poses a strategic risk for AUD/USD.
• Despite resilience in risk markets, technical indicators suggest potential downside, with support levels at 0.6220 and 0.6088, and worst-case scenarios extending to 0.6000.

Westpac suggests any significant break below support could be temporary, potentially creating a long-term buying opportunity.

New Zealand Manufacturing PMI Jumps to 53.9, Best Since 2022

New Zealand’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surged to 53.9 in February, up from a revised 51.7 in January. This marks the highest reading since August 2022, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment.

New Zealand Food Prices Fall 0.5% in February

New Zealand’s Food Price Index (FPI) declined 0.5% in February, reversing a 1.9% increase from the previous month.

Japan’s Largest Trade Union Secures 5.46% Wage Hike

Japan’s biggest labor confederation, Rengo, secured an average 5.46% wage increase in first-round negotiations—falling short of the 6.09% demand but exceeding 2024’s 5.10% increase.

This marks the second consecutive year of wage hikes above 5%, reinforcing expectations that Japan’s deflationary era may be ending. However, revisions to the final figure are expected in the coming months.

Crypto Market Pulse

Crypto Today: BNB, OKB, BGB Rally as BTC, Shiba Inu, and Chainlink Lead Market Rebound

The cryptocurrency market saw modest gains on Friday, adding $352 million in aggregate valuation. The exchange-based native tokens sector surged, led by BNB, OKB, and BGB, contributing $1.9 billion to overall market capitalization.

However, while top altcoins like Shiba Inu (SHIB), Chainlink (LINK), and Ripple (XRP) recorded significant gains, the overall market recovery was weak at +0.13%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

Bitcoin Market Update: BTC Tops $83K, but Conviction Remains Weak

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $83,000, marking a 5% increase from its 24-hour low of $79,000. Despite the surge, traders remain cautious as:

• Bitcoin ETFs recorded $143M in outflows on Thursday, reversing the $13M inflow on Wednesday, which was the first positive flow since March began.
• Derivatives markets saw a 14% drop in BTC trading volumes, falling to $75.77 billion, while open interest edged up 1.5% to $48 billion.

The declining trading volume suggests that Bitcoin’s recent rally lacks strong conviction, with traders hesitant to place larger bets. The uptick in open interest indicates some fresh positions, but without substantial volume, a strong breakout remains unlikely in the near term.

Altcoin Market Update: Chainlink, Shiba Inu, and XRP Rally

While Bitcoin’s price action remains constrained, altcoins displayed mixed performance, with some projects attracting renewed investor interest:

• Ripple (XRP): +2.3%, trading above $2.30, as SEC settlement rumors gain traction. If the SEC classifies XRP as a commodity, the legal clarity could further boost XRP demand.
• Binance Coin (BNB): Holding above $570, supported by speculation surrounding Trump’s family negotiations to acquire Binance.US.
• Shiba Inu (SHIB): +4%, trading at $0.000012 as traders rotate back into oversold meme coins.
• Chainlink (LINK): +5%, reclaiming $20.00. The continued integration of Chainlink oracles into AI and TradFi partnerships is fueling long-term bullish sentiment.

Despite these gains, the overall market recovery remains fragile, with traders mostly rotating funds between different assets rather than injecting fresh capital.

Crypto Market News & Developments

1. Russia Turns to Crypto for Oil Trade with China and India

As Western sanctions tighten, Russia is increasingly using Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins to facilitate oil trade with China and India, according to Reuters.

Key takeaways:

• Crypto transactions account for a growing share of Russia’s $192 billion annual oil trade.
• Russian firms use intermediaries to convert yuan and rupees into rubles, bypassing SWIFT restrictions.
• Russia’s Finance Minister confirmed that crypto-based international trade was legalized in December 2024.

While crypto payments remain a small fraction of total trade, the trend signals a shift toward decentralized finance as countries seek to reduce reliance on Western financial systems.

2. BlackRock’s BUIDL Fund Surpasses $1B in Tokenized Treasuries

BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized treasury fund has crossed the $1 billion mark, cementing its position as a leading institutional vehicle for digital asset exposure.

Recent Developments:

• Ethena Labs invested $200M into BUIDL, signaling growing institutional appetite.
• Tokenized treasuries now total $4.4 billion, with Franklin Templeton, Ondo Finance, and Superstate among key contributors.

With blockchain-based treasuries gaining traction, traditional finance (TradFi) and crypto markets are becoming increasingly interconnected.

3. U.S. Senate Banking Committee Advances Stablecoin Regulation Bill

A major stablecoin regulation bill was approved by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee (18-6 vote), moving closer to full Senate consideration.

Key Provisions:

• Establishes federal oversight for U.S. stablecoin issuers.
• Enhances consumer protections and reserves transparency.
• Aligns regulatory standards with House proposals, paving the way for final legislative approval.

This marks a major milestone in crypto regulation, potentially boosting institutional confidence in stablecoins like USDC and USDT.

REX Shares Launches First Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF (BMAX)

Asset manager REX Shares has introduced BMAX, a first-of-its-kind ETF focused on convertible bonds issued by companies buying Bitcoin for their corporate treasuries.

Key Features of BMAX:

• 80% of fund assets allocated to convertible bonds issued for Bitcoin purchases.
• Simplifies access to this investment strategy for retail and institutional investors.
• Inspired by Michael Saylor’s corporate debt strategy, where firms leverage bonds to accumulate Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy in Numbers:

• $8.3 billion in convertible notes issued to buy Bitcoin.
• Latest purchase (Feb 2025): $2 billion in zero-coupon notes for 20,356 BTC at an average of $97,514 per BTC.
• Total holdings: 499,096 BTC, valued at over $41 billion.

BMAX offers a new structured approach for investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin-driven corporate finance strategies.

Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk as U.S.-Canada Trade War Escalates

Despite Bitcoin’s 3% weekly gains, geopolitical tensions—particularly the U.S.-Canada trade war—are dampening risk appetite.

BTC Weekly Performance:

• High: $84,472
• Low: $76,000
• Current: $83,300 (+3% week-over-week)

Bitcoin’s price remained stuck in an 8% range, unable to sustain a decisive breakout due to conflicting market signals.

Key Factors Influencing Bitcoin This Week

1. Trade War Concerns Outweigh Inflation Improvements

• Canada’s PM Justin Trudeau promised retaliatory tariffs, adding uncertainty to global markets.
• Despite lower CPI and PPI data, Bitcoin demand remained weak, suggesting macroeconomic factors are limiting crypto inflows.
• Historically, easing inflation supports Bitcoin, but trade disputes are suppressing risk appetite.

2. Bitcoin ETF Outflows Continue

• Bitcoin ETFs saw $143M in outflows on Thursday, following $830M withdrawn in March.
• Despite a $13M inflow on Wednesday, investor sentiment remains cautious.
• ETF outflows add to short-term volatility, preventing a sustained rally.

3. U.S. Crypto Policy & Strategic Reserve Developments

• Florida Governor candidate Byron Donalds proposed a bill to codify Trump’s Bitcoin reserve policy, preventing future administrations from selling 200,000 BTC held by the U.S. Treasury.
• Texas lawmakers introduced HB 4258, proposing a $250M Bitcoin reserve fund.
• Polymarket bettors price in a 99% probability of a Fed rate pause, while Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds climb to 80%—both could influence crypto markets next week.

Looking Ahead: Bitcoin’s Key Levels & Market Risks

Support Levels:

• $80,000 (psychological support, tested 3 times this week).
• $76,000 (weekly low, critical for short-term sentiment).

Resistance Levels:

• $84,500 (weekly high, key breakout point).
• $88,000 (major resistance, would confirm a new uptrend).

Potential Risks Next Week:

• Continued ETF outflows may weigh on BTC momentum.
• Trade war concerns could further dampen risk sentiment.
• Weak on-chain volume suggests BTC may struggle to hold above $80K.

Potential Catalysts for a Breakout:

• Fed rate pause confirmation could trigger renewed crypto inflows.
• Geopolitical stabilization (Russia-Ukraine ceasefire) may improve risk appetite.
• Regulatory clarity on XRP and stablecoins could boost institutional confidence.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

U.S. Markets: Strong Daily Rebound, But Fourth Consecutive Weekly Decline

Despite a strong rally on Friday, U.S. stocks extended their losing streak to four weeks, weighed down by trade tensions, inflation risks, and tech stock volatility.

Friday’s Gains:

• S&P 500: +2.13% to 5,638.94
• NASDAQ: +2.61% to 17,754.09
• Dow Jones: +1.65% to 41,488.79
• Russell 2000: +2.53%, but -1.51% for the week

Weekly Performance:

• S&P 500: -2.27%
• NASDAQ: -2.43%
• Dow Jones: -3.07%

Tech Sector: The ‘Magnificent 7’ Mixed for the Week

• Nvidia: +5.27% today, +7.97% weekly
• Apple: +1.82% today, -10.7% weekly (biggest weekly decline)
• Tesla: +3.86% today, -4.83% weekly
• Alphabet: +1.68% today, -4.81% weekly

Year-to-date, the Nasdaq is down 8.06%, while the S&P 500 has fallen 4.13%. Investors remain cautious, with tariffs, inflation, and Fed rate uncertainty driving sentiment.

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Canada: Manufacturing Growth & Trade Talks in Focus

Manufacturing Sales Rise 1.7% in January

• Auto sector (+11.1%) led gains, reaching the highest sales level since November 2023.
• Petroleum & coal sales increased by 4.7%, offsetting a 7.4% decline in chemicals.
• Ontario and Alberta saw the strongest gains, while Newfoundland and Labrador fell 26.9%.

Foreign Minister Joly: Canada Strengthening Ties with Europe & UK

• Canada will align its tariff strategy with Mexico.
• G7 remains focused on Ukraine and Middle East stability.

Mark Carney Sworn In as Canada’s New Prime Minister

• Carney pledges economic security and affordability reforms.
• Dismissed speculation about Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state.

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Commodities: Oil & Gas Volatile, Gold Breaks Out

Oil Prices Slide as IEA Projects 2025 Surplus

• Brent crude fell over 1.5% amid weak sentiment.
• IEA forecasts a 600k bpd surplus in 2025, with a risk of 1M bpd if OPEC+ unwinds production cuts.

Gold Surges Above $3,000, Targets $3,035 – Société Générale

• Technical breakout confirmed, with next resistance at $3,035–$3,050.
• MACD suggests weakening momentum, making $2,880 a key support.

Natural Gas Storage Falls More Than Expected – ING

• Storage declined by 62 bcf (vs. 50 bcf expected), pushing gas prices higher.
• However, warmer weather forecasts limited gains.

Europe: Markets Rebound But End Week Lower

Major Indices:

• DAX: +1.65% today, -0.30% weekly
• CAC 40: +1.14% today, -1.14% weekly
• FTSE 100: +1.05% today, -0.55% weekly
• IBEX 35: +1.43% today, -1.90% weekly
• FTSE MIB: +1.73% today, +0.16% weekly

Eurozone Economic Outlook & Rate Expectations

• J.P. Morgan cut its 2025 U.S. growth forecast to 1.6%, citing tariffs and slowing consumer demand.
• ECB rate cuts remain likely, as inflation slows in Germany, France, and Spain.

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Crypto: Bitcoin Rebounds to $83K, But Faces Trade War Risks

Bitcoin Market Update: BTC Struggles for Conviction

• Bitcoin rose 5% to $83,000, but volumes fell 14% to $75.77 billion, signaling weak bullish conviction.
• Bitcoin ETFs saw $143M in outflows Thursday, reversing $13M inflows Wednesday.

Altcoins See Selective Gains

• Shiba Inu (SHIB): +4%, recovering from oversold conditions.
• Chainlink (LINK): +5%, reclaiming $20 on growing AI & TradFi adoption.
• XRP (Ripple): +2.3%, boosted by SEC settlement speculation.

Crypto Developments:

• Russia Increasing Crypto Use for Oil Trade with China & India to bypass sanctions.
• BlackRock’s BUIDL Fund Reaches $1B, highlighting growing tokenized treasury adoption.
• U.S. Senate Advances Stablecoin Regulation Bill, bringing federal oversight closer.

Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk from U.S.-Canada Trade War

• Trade war tensions overshadowed positive CPI & PPI data.
• Polymarket bettors price in a 99% chance of a Fed rate pause, potentially supporting BTC next week.

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Final Thoughts:

• U.S. stocks rebounded Friday but ended lower for a fourth straight week.
• Canadian manufacturing posted gains, while political shifts in Canada add uncertainty.
• Gold surged past $3,000, but oil and natural gas remain volatile.
• Europe’s markets gained Friday but remained weak for the week.
• Crypto markets remain fragile, with Bitcoin facing resistance near $84K.