Daily Market Roundup

North America News

Major US Stock Indices Close Mixed as CPI Data Supports Fed Rate Cut Bets

📊 US Stock Market Closing Levels:

• Dow Jones: -82.55 pts (-0.20%) at 41,350.93
• S&P 500: +27.23 pts (+0.49%) at 5,599.30
• NASDAQ: +212.35 pts (+1.22%) at 17,648.45
• Russell 2000: +2.87 pts (+0.14%) at 2,026.46

🔹 Market Drivers:

• The CPI report showed cooling inflation, reinforcing bets that the Fed may cut rates later this year.
• The Dow lagged as investors remained cautious amid trade war uncertainties.
• Tech stocks rebounded sharply, lifting the NASDAQ as rate cut expectations buoyed growth stocks.

🔹 Post-Market Movers:

• Intel (INTC) jumped 12.28% in after-hours trading after announcing that Lip-Bu Tan will be its next CEO.
• Tan previously clashed with Intel’s current leadership over workforce strategy and manufacturing plans before leaving the board in August 2024.

U.S. February CPI: Core Inflation Cools More Than Expected

📊 Headline CPI:

• Annual: +3.1% (vs. +3.2% expected, prior: +3.3%)
• Monthly: +0.2% (vs. +0.3% expected, lowest since October)

📉 Core CPI (Excluding Food & Energy):

• Annual: +3.1% (vs. +3.2% expected, lowest since 2021)
• Monthly: +0.2% (vs. +0.3% expected)

✅ What’s Driving the Decline?

• Shelter costs rose (+0.3%), accounting for nearly half of the overall increase.
• Airline fares fell (-4.0%), helping to offset higher shelter costs.
• Gasoline prices dropped (-1.0%), contributing to the softer inflation print.

💡 Implications:

• The cooler CPI data supports rate cut expectations, reinforcing bets for multiple Fed cuts in 2025.

U.S. Treasury Sells $39B in 10-Year Notes at 4.31% Yield

💰 Key Auction Results:

• High Yield: 4.310% (vs. 4.315% WI)
• Bid-to-Cover Ratio: 2.59 (vs. 2.48 prior)
• Indirect Buyers (Foreign Demand): 67.41%
• Direct Buyers: 19.51%
• Primary Dealers: 13.08%

💡 Takeaway:

• Strong demand from indirect buyers (foreign institutions) helped stabilize bond markets after recent volatility.

U.S. Budget Deficit Swells to $307.9B in February

📉 Key Figures:

• Deficit: -$307.9B (vs. -$303.15B expected, prior year: -$129B)
• Year-to-Date Deficit: -$1.147T (vs. -$828B in 2024)
• Outlays: $603B (record high, vs. $567B in Feb 2024)
• Receipts: $296B (vs. $271B in Feb 2024)

📌 Problem Areas:

• Interest on debt up 10% 📈
• Social Security spending up 6% 📈
• Medicare/Medicaid up 5% 📈
• Defense spending up 8% 📈

📢 Ray Dalio Warning:

• The U.S. must sell more debt than global buyers are willing to absorb, raising concerns about potential debt restructuring or pressuring foreign investors.

U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Rise 11.2% as Interest Rates Ease Slightly

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an 11.2% increase in mortgage applications for the week ending March 7, 2025, following a 20.4% surge the prior week.

Key Mortgage Market Data:

• Market index: 269.3 (previous: 242.2)
• Purchase index: 154.6 (previous: 144.5)
• Refinance index: 911.3 (previous: 784.2)
• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.67% (down from 6.73%)

The pickup in mortgage applications reflects pent-up housing demand, but high rates still constrain affordability.

Trump Reiterates Reciprocal Tariffs Coming April 2

📢 Key Remarks from Trump:

• Tariffs will start on April 2, with little flexibility once they are implemented.
• U.S. will retaliate against EU counter-tariffs.
• “There is still a massive trade deficit, and we will even that out.”
• “Canada is one of the worst offenders on tariffs, particularly on dairy.”
• “The EU doesn’t take U.S. farm products or cars—so tariffs are coming.”
• “The U.S. will take back what was stolen.”

💡 Market Reaction:

• Risk sentiment improving, as investors focus on softer inflation data over fresh tariff threats.

Jamie Dimon Sees Some Weakening in U.S. Economy

📢 Speaking at a BlackRock conference, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon noted:

• Signs of economic softening
• Growing negative sentiment

💡 Context:

• Dimon has been optimistic on the economy but remains cautious on long-term risks.

Goldman Sachs Raises Credit Spread Forecasts, Lowers S&P 500 Target on Tariff Risks

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for U.S. credit spreads, citing growing trade policy uncertainty and signs that Trump is willing to tolerate near-term economic weakness.

• Higher funding costs and supply chain disruptions could weigh on corporate credit conditions.
• Sectors sensitive to global trade face increased borrowing pressures.

In a separate note, Goldman lowered its 2025 year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6,500 to 6,200, reflecting:

• A 4% cut in its fair-value forward P/E multiple, from 21.5x to 20.6x.
• Trimmed earnings estimates for the S&P 500:
  • 2024 EPS: $262 (previously $268).
  • 2025 EPS: $280 (previously $288).

While Goldman remains constructive on U.S. equities, it warns that tariffs and an on-hold Fed may cap further valuation expansion in the near term.

Taiwan’s TSMC approached Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom about JV to operate Intel’s foundries

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) has approached Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom about investing in a joint venture (JV) to operate Intel’s foundry division.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) has approached Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom about investing in a joint venture (JV) to operate Intel’s foundry division.

Reuters with the info, citing sources familiar with the discussions.

Under the proposal, TSMC would run Intel’s foundry operations but hold no more than a 50% stake to comply with U.S. government concerns over foreign ownership. Qualcomm has also been pitched as a potential investor, though it has reportedly exited earlier discussions to buy parts of Intel. Talks remain at an early stage, with negotiations continuing after TSMC and the Trump administration announced a $100 billion U.S. investment plan for additional chip facilities.

The JV discussions come as Intel struggles with financial losses—reporting an $18.8 billion net loss in 2024, its first since 1986. President Donald Trump is keen to revive Intel’s manufacturing capabilities, and any potential deal would require U.S. government approval. Intel’s 18A chip manufacturing technology has been a key point of contention in negotiations, with Intel claiming its process is superior to TSMC’s 2-nanometer technology. Nvidia and Broadcom are already testing Intel’s 18A manufacturing techniques, while AMD is evaluating their suitability. The talks highlight complex technological and strategic challenges, including concerns over intellectual property and manufacturing differences, but TSMC is pushing for its potential investors to also be customers of Intel’s advanced manufacturing processes.

BMO: February CPI Data Will Be Crucial for Fed’s Rate Path

BMO analysts believe Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be a critical data point for the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook and rate-cut decisions.

Market Expectations:

• Core CPI (MoM): 0.3% (lower than January’s 0.446%, but still elevated).
• The Fed wants further progress on inflation before confirming multiple rate cuts in 2025.

Beyond the headline CPI figures, investors will focus on:

• Housing services inflation
• Non-housing “supercore” inflation (services excluding energy & rent)

“Even if inflation exceeds expectations, a full assessment will require Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data.”

If inflation surprises to the upside, markets may adjust rate-cut expectations, impacting equities, bonds, and the U.S. dollar.

U.S. House Passes Spending Bill to Avert Government Shutdown – Senate Up Next

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a stopgap spending bill to keep the government funded through September.

• The bill now moves to the Senate, where it faces a higher hurdle, requiring support from at least seven Democrats to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold.
• Without an agreement, the government will shut down on March 14.

The Senate vote will be closely watched, as any delays could add market volatility.

Trump Threatens Even Higher Tariffs, Keeping Markets on Edge

Trump continues to ramp up tariff rhetoric, suggesting that current 25% tariffs may increase even further.

• Trump did not specify which tariffs he was referring to.
• His aggressive trade stance remains a drag on market sentiment, raising risks for global trade and corporate profitability.

As trade tensions remain a key concern, markets will be watching for further tariff policy shifts.

Kolanovic: S&P 500 Could Dip Below 5000, Reaching 4000s in a Recession

Marko Kolanovic, a well-known strategist and former JP Morgan analyst, has revised his S&P 500 outlook, now predicting a potential drop:

• S&P 500 could fall into the low 5000s in the near term.
• A U.S. recession could push it into the 4000s.

Key Risk Factors:

• Geopolitical tensions
• Domestic political uncertainty
• Persistent inflation

Kolanovic has long maintained a bearish outlook on equities, and with the S&P 500 now retreating, he sees further downside risk.

J.P. Morgan Raises U.S. Recession Probability to 40%, Cites “Extreme U.S. Policies”

J.P. Morgan economists have raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession to 40% (previously 30%), citing growing economic policy uncertainty under the Trump administration.

• The bank flagged “extreme U.S. policies” as a primary risk.
• The recession narrative is gaining momentum, as market concerns over trade wars and fiscal policy chaos escalate.

With the economic outlook becoming more uncertain, investors are watching for policy shifts that could either mitigate or exacerbate recession risks.

Deutsche Bank: U.S. Equity Selloff Doesn’t Signal Broader Downturn

Despite recent market weakness, Deutsche Bank analysts argue that the U.S. equity selloff lacks the characteristics of a deeper downturn and does not indicate an impending recession.

In a note to clients, DB acknowledged that market turbulence may unsettle corporate executives, but it differs from past crises linked to fundamental economic deterioration.

“While the market selloff will undoubtedly make many CEOs nervous, it does not have the hallmarks of prior downturns that were associated with a significant dip in corporate and economic fundamentals.”

DB highlighted resilient business conditions, despite elevated uncertainty, and reiterated its forecast for a strong rebound in business activity later in 2025.

“Even though economic uncertainty remains high, it is premature to predict an extended pause in corporate expansion activity.”

The bank expects a material pickup in corporate growth in the second half of the year, supporting its constructive view on equities.

Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rates by 25bps as Trade Risks Mount

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut rates by 25 basis points, citing:

• Escalating U.S.-Canada trade tensions, which threaten to slow economic activity and raise inflation.
• Heightened business and consumer uncertainty, leading to reduced spending and investment.
• Stagnant job growth in February, with signs that tariff concerns are already impacting hiring decisions.

Despite the cut, the BoC acknowledged:

• Monetary policy cannot offset the full impact of a trade war.
• Inflation remains above 2%, limiting room for aggressive easing.

BoC Governor Tiff Macklem warned:

“We are now facing a new crisis. Businesses and consumers are already pulling back. If trade uncertainty persists, domestic demand will slow further in Q1.”

The next BoC meeting will be closely watched, as markets assess whether further rate cuts are likely.

BoC’s Macklem: We Can Only Do So Much to Offset Trade War Impact

Following the rate cut, BoC Governor Macklem emphasized that:

• Tariffs are a drag on the economy, and Canada cannot fully offset the impact through monetary policy.
• Q1 domestic demand is expected to be very weak.
• Canadians are saving more and spending less, reflecting a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment.
• The risk of recession is tied to U.S. trade policy decisions.

Bank Commentary:

• TD Securities: “As long as tariff pressures persist, the BoC will maintain a dovish stance. We see the overnight rate reaching 2.25% by June but believe further cuts may be limited by inflation concerns.”
• BMO: “The economic drag from tariffs will likely outweigh inflationary pressures, keeping the BoC in an easing cycle.”

With uncertainty running high, Canada’s monetary and fiscal responses remain fluid.

Canadian Businesses & Households React to Trade Conflict

A Bank of Canada (BoC) survey revealed that businesses and households are struggling with uncertainty due to shifting U.S. tariffs and potential Canadian retaliation.

Key Findings:

🔸 Economic Uncertainty: Businesses find it difficult to plan investments, hiring, and pricing due to unstable trade policies.
🔸 Household Spending: Rising job security concerns are prompting reduced spending, particularly in trade-dependent sectors.
🔸 Sales & Orders Declining: Companies downgraded sales expectations, with weaker order books, particularly in manufacturing and discretionary goods.
🔸 “Buy Canadian” Trend: Some businesses benefit from domestic spending shifts, but it is not enough to offset broader trade impacts.
🔸 Hiring & Investment Pullback:

• Tighter credit conditions are limiting business expansion.
• Higher costs of imported capital goods (e.g., machinery) are restricting investment.
• Companies are maintaining existing projects but scaling back new growth plans.

Inflationary Impact:

📌 Rising Costs:

• Weaker CAD since October 2024 has made imports more expensive.
• Tariffs and supply chain disruptions are driving up input costs.
• Companies diversifying suppliers to avoid tariffs, but at higher prices.

📌 Planned Price Increases:

• 50% of businesses plan to raise prices if tariffs persist.
• 75% of those businesses expect to pass on at least half of the cost increases to consumers.

📌 Inflation Expectations:

• Short-term inflation expectations have risen due to trade tensions.
• Retailers face pricing challenges, with some unable to pass on full cost increases due to weak demand and competition.

Canada Hits Back With Over $20 Billion in Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Goods

Canada is escalating its trade fight with the U.S., announcing over $20 billion in new tariffs in response to Washington’s steel and aluminum duties.

• $20.7 billion in fresh tariffs were unveiled today, adding to the $30 billion already announced.
• Targeted goods include U.S. ethanol and other key exports, as Canada seeks “dollar-for-dollar” retaliation.

A U.S.-Canada trade meeting is scheduled for tomorrow, but tensions remain high.

Canada Finance Minister: Early USMCA Review Not on the Agenda

Despite Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s calls for an early review of the USMCA trade agreement, Canada’s Finance Minister clarified that:

• “USMCA renegotiation will not be on the agenda” for tomorrow’s White House meeting.
• The main priority is securing U.S. tariff relief, not a broader trade pact overhaul.

This signals Canada’s focus on de-escalation, rather than a full-blown trade war.

Canada Warns of Potential Oil Export Restrictions Amid U.S. Trade Tensions

Canadian Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson has hinted at non-tariff measures, including restrictions on oil exports to the U.S., if trade tensions escalate.

• Canada supplies 4 million barrels per day to the U.S., primarily to Midwest refineries.
• Canada is also considering tariffs on U.S.-bound ethanol, particularly if Trump moves forward with his 25% tariff threat in April.

These warnings follow Trump’s now-suspended plan to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%.

• Ontario Premier Doug Ford previously threatened a 25% electricity surcharge on U.S. exports before agreeing to talks.
• Alberta’s Energy Minister Brian Jean has called for de-escalation, but Canada is still considering retaliatory tariffs on $155 billion in U.S. imports, with an initial $30 billion targeted for immediate action.

As trade tensions mount, energy markets will closely watch Canada’s next steps.

Canada’s Energy Minister: Will Respond Quickly if Tariffs Are Imposed

Canada’s Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson reiterated that Canada will act swiftly if U.S. tariffs escalate.

• “Canada does not want to provoke or escalate tensions but will respond appropriately if needed.”
• For now, Ottawa is taking a wait-and-see approach before announcing further retaliatory measures.

With trade relations on edge, Canada’s response will be closely watched by energy markets.

Commodities News

Crude Oil Futures Settle at $67.68 as Prices Break Above 200-Hour Moving Average

Oil Market Snapshot:

• WTI Crude settled at $67.68, up $1.43 (+2.16%).
• Price has reached the highest level since March 7.
• First move above the 200-hour moving average ($67.45) since February 21.
• Oil remains in a broader downtrend, declining from a January high of $80.77 to a March low of $65.22.

What’s Driving Oil Prices?

• OPEC+ production rose by 363K barrels per day in February, led by Kazakhstan’s increased output.
• US crude inventories rose by 1.45M barrels, slightly below expectations.
• Demand concerns persist amid global trade tensions and China’s economic slowdown.

Gold Prices Steady as Markets Weigh US Tariffs & CPI Impact on Fed Policy

Gold settled at $2,915 on Wednesday, trading flat ahead of the US CPI release.

Key Market Factors:

• Traders await inflation data, which could influence Fed rate cut expectations.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that Beijing would respond to US tariffs on steel & aluminum, while EU countermeasures are set for April 13.
• Geopolitical Risk: A US-brokered Ukraine ceasefire proposal has been submitted to Russia but remains under consideration.

Daily Market Movers:

• Chinese consumption stocks rallied, supported by government pledges to boost domestic demand.
• Wall Street remains wary of tariff volatility, inflation risks, and Fed rate policy uncertainties.
• The CME FedWatch Tool now sees a 97% chance of no rate change in March, with a 39.5% probability of a rate cut in May.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories & Market Update

EIA Weekly U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Data:

• Crude: +1.448M barrels (vs. +2.001M expected)
• Gasoline: -5.737M barrels (vs. -1.882M expected)
• Distillates: -1.559M barrels (vs. -757K expected)

Crude Oil Settles at $67.68

• Up $1.43 (+2.16%)
• First close above the 200-hour moving average since February 21.

OPEC+ Output Rises by 363K Barrels Per Day in February

Key Data:

• OPEC+ crude production: 41.01M barrels/day
• Kazakhstan led the increase, but output is expected to normalize.
• OPEC left its 2025 economic growth forecast unchanged, noting volatility in trade but expectations for market adjustment.

Takeaway:

• Stable demand outlook despite market fluctuations.

Europe News

European Equities Rebound Despite Tariff Uncertainty

📈 Closing Changes:

• Stoxx 600: +0.8%
• DAX: +1.5%
• CAC 40: +0.6%
• FTSE 100: +0.4%
• IBEX: -0.7%
• FTSE MIB: +1.6%

Takeaway:

• First day of gains for DAX after three consecutive declines.

EU to Retaliate Against U.S. Steel & Aluminum Tariffs With €26B in Countermeasures

The European Union has announced plans to impose countermeasures against the United States’ new steel and aluminum tariffs.

• €6.4 billion in previously suspended 2018 and 2020 tariffs will be fully reinstated on April 1.
• An additional €18 billion in tariffs will be introduced in mid-April, following a two-week consultation period with EU stakeholders.

The escalating trade dispute risks further market instability and supply chain disruptions.

ECB President Lagarde: Trade Fragmentation Poses Inflation Risks

Speaking on inflation and monetary policy, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that:

• The ECB cannot ensure inflation will always be at 2%, but must set policy to ensure convergence toward the target.
• Trade fragmentation—driven by tariffs and global supply chain shifts—could lead to larger, more disruptive price swings.
• The ECB must be clear about its reaction function but cannot provide forward guidance due to uncertainty around external shocks.

ECB’s Šimkus: We will see if we cut rates or pause in April

• Remarks by ECB policymaker, Gediminas Šimkus

• It is irrational to commit to future rate decisions
• The direction of travel has not changed

UK trade minister says negotiating with the US to eliminate additional tariffs

• Remarks by UK trade minister, Jonathan Reynolds

• It’s disappointing that US has imposed global tariffs on steel and aluminum
• Negotiating a wider economic agreement to eliminate additional tariffs
• Focused on a more pragmatic approach and rapidly negotiating on the matter
• Will keep all options on the table and won’t hesitate to respond in the national interest

Asia-Pacific & World News

UBS Downgrades China’s Tech Sector Amid Valuation Concerns & Tariff Risks

UBS has downgraded China’s technology sector from Attractive to Neutral, citing a 32% year-to-date rally that has fully priced in near-term growth prospects.

Key Factors Behind the Downgrade:

• Strong gains in Chinese AI and internet stocks following the government’s push for AI development at the National People’s Congress.
• UBS believes the market has now fully valued the upside potential of these companies.
• Rising U.S.-China tariff risks create an uncertain policy environment that could impact Chinese tech firms.

“We no longer believe that markets underappreciate the potential for Chinese internet stocks.”

UBS recommends a tactical approach, advising investors to lock in profits and await trade clarity before re-entering the sector. The bank maintains a Neutral stance on Chinese equities overall.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1696 (vs. estimate at 7.2324)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBoC injects 175.4bn yuan via 7-Day Reverse Repos at 1.5%

• 353.2bn mature today
• net drains 177.8bn yuan in Open Market Operations

New Zealand February Retail Sales: Modest Growth, But Annual Decline Deepens

New Zealand’s electronic card spending data, which covers approximately 68% of core retail sales, showed mixed signals in February.

Retail Sales Data:

• Monthly change (MoM): +0.3% (prior: -1.6%)
• Annual change (YoY): -4.2% (prior: -0.5%)

While monthly sales returned to growth, the annual decline steepened, reflecting weak consumer demand amid broader economic pressures.

BOJ governor Ueda: Underlying inflation still remains below 2%

• Remark by BOJ governor, Kazuo Ueda

Very worried about uncertainty over overseas economy, prices

Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) Comes in Flat for February

Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI), also known as the Corporate Goods Price Index, showed stable price trends in February.

Key Data:

• PPI (YoY): 4.0% (expected: 4.0%, prior: 4.2%)
• PPI (MoM): 0.0% (expected: -0.1%, prior: 0.3%)

While the monthly figure was slightly above expectations, the lack of price growth suggests that producer-level inflation is stabilizing.

• This reduces the risk of rapid consumer price increases and could reinforce expectations that the BOJ will proceed cautiously on rate hikes.

Toyota has met union pay rise request in full

• Hitachi has also met the request in full

A company spokesman says Toyota has met union wage rise reauest in full.

Hitachi has agreed to a JPY 17k average month wage hike vs. the 17K union ask.

Toyota Explores UK-to-US Exports to Offset Trump’s Tariff Impact

According to the Financial Times, Toyota is considering exporting vehicles from its UK factories to the U.S. as a workaround for Trump’s new tariffs on Chinese and Mexican-made cars.

The move highlights how automakers are adjusting global supply chains in response to increasing U.S. trade restrictions.

BOJ Governor Ueda: Higher Long-Term Rates Reflect Market Expectations

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda addressed rising long-term interest rates, stating that the BOJ sees no major divergence between its view and market pricing.

“It is natural for long-term rates to move in a way that reflects market expectations for short-term policy rates.”

• Japan’s long-term rates have been rising since last year, largely due to expectations of eventual BOJ tightening.
• However, Ueda noted that higher rates could push up government borrowing costs, potentially complicating fiscal policy.

His remarks reinforce expectations that the BOJ will take a gradual approach to any policy adjustments.

Japan’s Largest Firms Set to Offer Strong Wage Hikes for Third Consecutive Year

Japan’s biggest corporations are preparing for another round of significant wage hikes, responding to rising inflation and labor shortages.

Key Wage Data:

• 2024 wage hikes averaged 5.1%, the highest in 33 years.
• 2025 demands: Japan’s largest labor union, Rengo, is pushing for a 6.09% increase, exceeding last year’s 5.85% request.
• Companies like Denso have already agreed to record-high pay hikes.

Despite these gains, Japan’s inflation rate hit 4.7% in January, the highest in two years, meaning wage hikes may offset inflation rather than boost consumer spending.

• Small and mid-sized businesses, which employ 70% of Japan’s workforce, remain under pressure to match large firms’ pay increases.
• The Bank of Japan will closely monitor wage data, as it plays a key role in shaping monetary policy.

Crypto Market Pulse

Crypto Today: BTC, Pi Network, and HBAR Rally as US CPI Triggers $40B Buying Spree

📈 The cryptocurrency market rebounded on Wednesday, adding over $40 billion in market capitalization (+1.6%), as softer-than-expected US inflation data fueled renewed risk appetite.

🔸 Top Performers Among Major Altcoins:

• Pi Network (PI) surged 22% ahead of its March 17 migration event and growing speculation about potential listings on CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko.
• Hedera (HBAR) gained 6%, briefly breaking $0.20 resistance on ETF speculation after the SEC acknowledged Nasdaq’s filing for a Grayscale HBAR ETF.
• Binance Coin (BNB) climbed 2%, reflecting growing demand for exchange tokens amid increased market recovery trades.

📌 Bitcoin Market Update:

• BTC bounced back to $83,500, recovering 7% from its recent low of $76,000 seen on Monday.
• The rebound was driven by softer-than-expected inflation figures in the latest US CPI report, which revived investor interest in risk assets.
• Bitcoin ETF Outflows Remain a Concern:
  • Investors pulled another $371 million from BTC ETFs on Tuesday.
  • Total outflows since the start of March now exceed $1.5 billion.

💡 Outlook:

• If BTC ETF outflows persist, Bitcoin’s recovery could lag behind altcoins.
• Stronger spot demand is needed to sustain upward momentum above $85,000 resistance.

Crypto News Updates:

📜 US House Votes to Repeal IRS Crypto Tax Rule, Bill Heads to Trump’s Desk

• The US House of Representatives passed a bill to repeal an IRS rule requiring DeFi brokers to report user transactions similarly to traditional securities brokers.
• Led by Rep. Mike Carey & Sen. Ted Cruz, the bipartisan bill moves to President Trump for final approval.
• Supporters argue this removes barriers for crypto innovation, while opponents fear reduced tax compliance.

💰 Cantor Fitzgerald Partners with Anchorage Digital & Copper for Bitcoin Financing Expansion

• Cantor Fitzgerald has teamed up with Anchorage Digital (the only federally chartered crypto bank in the US) and Copper to manage collateral and custody for its new $2 billion Bitcoin financing business.
• The partnership aims to expand institutional Bitcoin-backed loans with high-security digital asset management.

🇷🇺 Russia’s Central Bank Considers Allowing Crypto Purchases for Qualified Investors

• The Bank of Russia is exploring a new regulatory framework to permit a select group of wealthy and corporate investors to buy cryptocurrencies.
• The proposed three-year experimental regime aims to assess market risks before broader regulation.

Bitcoin Rebounds as Ceasefire Odds Rise & CPI Boosts Risk Appetite

📈 Bitcoin Market Update:

• BTC Price: $83,500, up 7% from the $76K low.
• Open Interest: $46B despite trading volume dropping 22%.
• ETF Outflows: Another $371M pulled out Tuesday, bringing March outflows to $1.5B.

📊 Catalysts for BTC Rally:

1. Cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data, easing Fed tightening fears.
2. Increased optimism for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, boosting risk appetite.
3. Altcoins outperforming BTC, signaling a broader market recovery.

💡 Ceasefire Impact on Bitcoin:

• Increased energy stability could lower mining costs.
• Eased geopolitical tensions encourage liquidity into crypto markets.

Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Could Hit $200K by End of 2025, But Risks Remain

Standard Chartered maintains a bullish long-term outlook on Bitcoin, forecasting that it could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Key Drivers for BTC Growth:

• Bitcoin’s price is increasingly correlated with broader risk assets, rather than being driven solely by crypto-specific factors.
• On a volatility-adjusted basis, BTC has performed similarly to Tesla, Meta, and Apple.
• Sovereign Bitcoin purchases and clearer trade policies could support a major rally.
• The bank estimates a 75% chance of a Fed rate cut by May, which could act as a tailwind for BTC.

Caveats & Risks:

• If the Fed holds rates steady next week, Bitcoin could dip to $70,000, dragging Ethereum and Solana lower.
• If Bitcoin falls below $76,500, it may test key support at $69,000.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

United States: Markets Stabilize Amid Inflation & Trade War Jitters

• US CPI data came in softer than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could cut rates later this year.
• Stock markets ended mixed:
  • S&P 500 & NASDAQ rebounded, driven by tech stocks and easing inflation fears.
  • The Dow lagged, as investors remained cautious over Trump’s tariff threats and economic uncertainty.
• Tariff tensions remain a headwind:
  • Trump doubled down on reciprocal tariffs, signaling potential further trade escalation by April 2.
  • The EU and China vowed countermeasures, heightening global trade risks.
• Treasury yields dipped, as bond investors bet on future Fed rate cuts.

Canada: Retaliatory Tariffs & Economic Jitters Grow

• Canada announced $20B+ in retaliatory tariffs in response to US steel & aluminum duties.
• Bank of Canada (BoC) cut rates by 25bps, citing economic uncertainty and the impact of US tariffs.
• Survey data showed Canadian businesses & households growing more cautious, with spending and hiring plans being scaled back.
• The energy sector remains in focus, with Canada considering oil export restrictions as a potential countermeasure.

Commodities: Oil & Gold React to Inflation, Tariff, & Geopolitical Uncertainty

• Crude oil rebounded to $67.68 after breaking above key technical levels, but overall remains in a downtrend from January highs of $80.77.
• Gold held steady at $2,915, as investors weighed:
  • The Fed’s potential rate-cut trajectory.
  • Lingering tariff tensions.
  • Geopolitical risks, including a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire proposal brokered by the US.

Europe: Markets Take Tariff Threats in Stride (For Now)

• Major European stock indices posted gains after several days of declines:
  • DAX +1.5% | CAC +0.6% | FTSE 100 +0.4%
• The European Commission announced a counter-tariff package of €26 billion, set to be implemented by mid-April.
• ECB’s Lagarde reaffirmed commitment to inflation control, signaling monetary policy will remain data-dependent despite economic uncertainty.

Rest of the World: Asia Focused on Trade & Economic Growth

• Japan’s largest firms announced significant wage hikes, aiming to offset inflation but raising concerns about profit margins.
• China’s National People’s Congress wrapped up, reinforcing economic stimulus measures and AI sector support.
• UBS downgraded China’s tech sector, citing valuation concerns and potential tariff risks.
• OPEC+ crude output rose by 363K barrels per day in February, primarily led by Kazakhstan, though demand concerns persist.

Crypto: Bitcoin & Altcoins Rebound as CPI Spurs $40B Buying Spree

• Bitcoin recovered to $83,500 (+7%), after touching $76,000 lows earlier in the week.
• Altcoins outperformed BTC, with:
  • Pi Network (PI) rallying 22% ahead of its March 17 migration event.
  • Hedera (HBAR) gaining 6%, boosted by speculation on a Grayscale ETF listing.
  • Binance Coin (BNB) up 2%, reflecting a rise in exchange-token demand.
• Bitcoin ETF outflows remain a concern, with another $371M withdrawn on Tuesday, bringing March’s total outflows to $1.5B.
• Regulatory developments:
  • US House repealed the IRS crypto tax rule, sending the bill to Trump’s desk for final approval.
  • Russia’s central bank is considering allowing crypto purchases for qualified investors under a new regulatory framework.

Bottom Line:

• Markets are stabilizing, but tariff risks remain a major headwind.
• Crypto rebounded, but ETF outflows could still weigh on sentiment.
• Gold & Oil remain in flux as inflation & geopolitical factors drive investor sentiment.
• The Fed remains the key wildcard—markets are watching upcoming data for clues on future rate cuts.

Looking ahead:

• US PPI data (Thursday) – Another key inflation measure.
• More tariff retaliation details expected from the EU & Canada.
• Bitcoin ETF outflows – Will they continue, or will the market stabilize?