Daily Market Roundup

North America News

U.S. Stocks Close Lower in Volatile Session as Tariff War & Peace Talks Create Uncertainty

U.S. stock indices ended lower Tuesday, whipsawing between gains and losses as investors reacted to tariff developments and Ukraine peace talks.

Closing Numbers:

• Dow Jones: -478.23 points (-1.14%) to 41,433.49
• S&P 500: -42.49 points (-0.76%) to 5,572.07
• Nasdaq: -32.23 points (-0.18%) to 17,436.10
• Russell 2000: +4.52 points (+0.22%) to 2,023.59 (the only index to post gains)

Market Dynamics:

• S&P 500 was up 21.74 points at session highs, but gains evaporated.
• Nasdaq rallied 219.07 points intraday before reversing.
• Dow never entered positive territory, staying in the red all day.
• Investors continue selling rallies, signaling broader caution.

With trade wars escalating and geopolitical risks persisting, market sentiment remains fragile.

U.S. Treasury Sells $58 Billion in 3-Year Notes Amid Market Volatility

The U.S. Treasury auctioned $58 billion in 3-year notes, attracting strong domestic demand but weaker international participation.

Auction Results:

• High yield: 3.908% (WI level at auction: 3.902%)
• Bid-to-cover ratio: 2.70x (above 6-month average of 2.62x)
• Direct bidders (domestic demand): 26.0% (vs. 6-month avg. of 16.8%)
• Indirect bidders (foreign demand): 62.53% (vs. 6-month avg. of 67.5%)

Key Takeaways:

• Domestic demand for Treasuries remains strong, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty.
• Weak foreign demand could reflect concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and trade risks.
• There are signs that funds are rotating out of stocks and into bonds, with CNBC reporting that IRA money is flowing into fixed income.

JOLTs Job Openings Beat Expectations, Showing Continued Labor Market Strength

The JOLTs report showed 7.740 million job openings in January, exceeding expectations of 7.630 million and up from the revised 7.508 million in December.

Key Labor Market Data:

• Quits rate: 2.1% (vs. 1.9% last month) – an indicator of worker confidence.
• Vacancy rate: 4.6% (vs. 4.5% last month) – job openings remain high.
• Total separations: 5.3M (3.3%), holding steady.
• Layoffs: 1.6M (1.0%), unchanged.
• Hires: 5.4M (3.4%), steady from last month.

Market Impact:

• The strong labor market suggests the Fed may not be in a rush to cut interest rates.
• Rising quit rates indicate workers remain confident about job prospects, despite economic uncertainty.

U.S. Small Business Optimism Drops in February, Uncertainty Rises

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 100.7 in February (expected: 101.0, prior: 102.8), reflecting rising concerns about the business outlook.

• This marks the fourth consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98 but remains 4.4 points below its December peak of 105.1.
• The Uncertainty Index jumped to 104, its second-highest level on record.
• Inflation remains a top concern, but labor quality is now cited as the biggest challenge for small businesses.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that while business conditions remain relatively strong, rising uncertainty is weighing on expansion plans.

Trump Signals Potential Backtrack on Canada Tariffs, Talks Up U.S. Economy

Speaking from the White House, Trump doubled down on tariffs but hinted at a possible revision of the 50% Canada tariff threat.

Key Statements:

• “The economy is going to blow it away.”
• “Markets will go up and down, but we have to rebuild the country.”
• “We will probably make a different tariff decision on Canada. I’ll let you know soon.”
• Downplays stock sell-off, says he’s not concerned about recession risks.
• “We want to end the Ukraine war; a ceasefire could be reached in the coming days.”
• Plans to speak with Putin this week.
• Announced he is buying a Tesla, claiming Musk plans to double U.S. production in two years.

While Trump’s hardline stance on trade remains intact, his latest remarks suggest a possible recalibration on some policies.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio: “The Ball is Now in Russia’s Court” on Ceasefire

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Russia holds the next move in ceasefire negotiations.

• “There is no deadline, but we want an agreement as soon as possible.”
• “The first goodwill gesture should come from Russia.”
• U.S. and Ukraine are finalizing a minerals deal.
• National Security Adviser Waltz says Ukraine has made concrete proposals.
• Rubio will meet with G7 foreign ministers this week.

While diplomacy is ongoing, progress remains uncertain.

Trump Imposes Additional 25% Tariff on Canadian Steel & Aluminum, Threatens Auto Tariffs

The U.S.-Canada trade dispute escalated further, with Trump announcing an additional 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, bringing the total to 50%.

Trump’s Justification & Threats:

• Retaliation against Ontario’s 25% electricity export surcharge.
• Calls for Canada to drop its 250%-390% tariffs on U.S. dairy products.
• Threatens to declare a “National Emergency on Electricity.”
• Warns of a potential 50% tariff on Canadian autos starting April 2, which could cripple Canada’s auto industry.
• Floats the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state, arguing it would eliminate tariffs altogether.

Trump Wanted to “Lay Down the Gauntlet” with Tariffs

According to CNBC, Trump’s latest tariff push was intended as a warning shot after Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s electricity export tax.

• No final decision yet on the proposed 50% tariffs.
• Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Premier Ford are set to meet later today.
• Tariffs may not be lifted unless Trump and Canadian PM Mark Carney hold direct talks.

The escalating trade standoff between the U.S. and Canada is now a key flashpoint in broader trade relations.

Trump: Canada will pay a financial price so big that it will be read about in history books

Trump Steps In to Avert U.S. Government Shutdown

With just days left before government funding runs out on March 14, Donald Trump is personally making calls to rally Republican support for the Continuing Resolution (CR)—a stopgap funding bill aimed at preventing a shutdown.

• House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a tough battle securing enough Republican votes.
• Many conservatives oppose the CR unless it includes strict debt-cutting measures.
• Trump is applying pressure to push Republicans toward backing the bill.

The stakes are high, as failure to pass the CR could trigger another government shutdown, adding further volatility to markets.

UBS Slashes Tesla Target Price, Warns of Weak Q1 Deliveries

UBS has cut its Tesla (TSLA) target price to $225, citing mounting demand concerns and a weaker-than-expected Q1 delivery outlook.

• Q1 delivery forecast cut to 367,000 units (previously 437,000)
• Represents a 5% YoY decline and a 26% drop QoQ
• UBS estimate is 13% below Visible Alpha consensus

Despite the possibility of a late-quarter sales push, UBS highlights that short wait times for Model 3 and Model Y signal demand softness rather than production bottlenecks. Investors will be watching for any last-minute pricing adjustments or incentives as Tesla tries to salvage its quarter.

Ontario Premier Ford Suspends Electricity Tariff, Hopes to Ease Trade Tensions

Ontario Premier Doug Ford has agreed to suspend the 25% electricity surcharge on exports to the U.S.

• The move follows intense backlash from Trump, who cited it as justification for new tariffs.
• Ford will meet Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Thursday to discuss USMCA trade renewal.
• Ottawa has vowed to retaliate “dollar for dollar” if U.S. tariffs escalate further.

While the suspension aims to de-escalate tensions, trade relations remain fragile.

Alberta Energy Minister Calls for De-escalation in U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute

Alberta’s Energy Minister is pushing for a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing tariff war.

• Acknowledges Ford’s approach but says Alberta prefers “alternative solutions.”
• Proposes multiple pathways to ease tensions with Washington.
• Canadian companies are working to ensure USMCA compliance but are deeply disappointed by the aluminum and steel tariffs.

With trade tensions escalating, provincial leaders are seeking ways to protect Canadian industries.

Ontario Premier Ford: “Will Not Hesitate” to Cut Off U.S. Power Supply

Speaking on CNBC, Ontario Premier Doug Ford ramped up rhetoric against U.S. trade measures, threatening to cut off electricity exports to the U.S.

• “I will not hesitate to cut power to the U.S. if needed,” Ford warned.
• Wants an end to U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports.
• Stressed that Ontario remains committed to its own businesses but also expressed support for U.S.-Canada cooperation.
• “Protectionism does not work,” he said, urging diplomatic talks.

Ontario exports enough electricity to power 1.5 million U.S. homes, making Ford’s threat a serious point of leverage.

Commodities News

Gold Surges Above $2,910 as Trade War Fears Drive Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices rallied past $2,910 per ounce, fueled by U.S.-Canada trade tensions and recession concerns.

Key Market Drivers:

• U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel take effect Wednesday, boosting safe-haven demand.
• Markets await U.S. CPI (Wednesday) & PPI (Thursday) for clues on Fed rate policy.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts Q1 2025 GDP at -2.4%, the first negative print since COVID-19.

Daily Market Movers:

• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added 10 tonnes of gold to reserves in early 2025.
• Poland’s central bank increased gold holdings by 29 tonnes, its largest purchase since 2019.
• Money markets now price in 77.5bps of Fed rate cuts in 2025, up from 74bps last week.

With economic uncertainty rising, gold remains a favored hedge for investors.

Oil – private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build larger than expected

• This is from the privately surveyed oil stock data ahead of official government data tomorrow morning out of the US.

• Crude Oil +4.247 million (exp. +2.1 million)
• Gasoline -4.560 million
• Distillates +421,000
• Cushing -1.196 million
• SPR +300,000

Silver Nears $32.50 as U.S. Dollar Weakens on Economic Concerns

Silver prices jumped sharply, approaching $32.50 per ounce, as the U.S. dollar (DXY) slumped to a four-month low of 103.35.

Market Drivers:

• Trump’s tariffs spark economic slowdown fears, fueling demand for safe-haven assets.
• Investors await U.S. CPI data on Wednesday, which could shape Fed rate expectations.
• If inflation slows, rate-cut bets for May will strengthen, supporting silver.

Technical Levels:

• Key resistance: $33.40 (Feb 14 high)
• Support: $30.00 (uptrend since August 2024)

As market uncertainty persists, silver remains a favored hedge against economic volatility.

Iranian President: No Talks with Trump, Says “Do Whatever the Hell You Want”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed the idea of negotiating with Trump, responding to U.S. sanctions and military threats with a defiant stance.

• “We won’t negotiate under threats. Do whatever the hell you want.”
• Trump has reinstated “maximum pressure” on Iran, aiming to cut off its oil revenues.
• Reports suggest the U.S. is considering disrupting Iranian oil tankers but stopping short of direct military action.

With tensions escalating, the prospect of a nuclear deal under Trump remains highly unlikely.

Europe News

UK Consumer Spending Slows in February Despite Record-High Household Confidence

British consumer spending lost momentum in February, despite households reporting the highest confidence levels in personal finances since 2015, according to data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Barclays.

• Retail sales growth slowed to 1.1% YoY (January: 2.6%), with cold weather dampening demand for spring fashion.
• Like-for-like sales rose 0.9% (January: 2.5%), reflecting a softer consumer appetite.
• Barclays data showed broader consumer spending growth also weakened, slowing to 1.0% YoY from 1.9% in January.

Despite this spending slowdown, Barclays found that 75% of UK households feel confident in their financial situation—the highest level since records began. However, overall economic confidence remains weak at just 25%, signaling lingering uncertainty about the UK’s broader outlook.

ECB’s Rehn: U.S. Tariffs Could Reduce Global Growth by 0.5%

ECB policymaker Olli Rehn warned that U.S. tariffs could reduce global output by more than 0.5% in 2025 and 2026, particularly impacting the EU and China.

• Rehn reiterated that inflation trends remain in line with the ECB’s 2% target.
• The forecast comes from the Bank of Finland’s own economic modeling.

The broader concern is that escalating trade tensions could further dampen global economic momentum.

Italy Proposes €200B EU Investment Guarantee Scheme

Italy is set to propose a European guarantee scheme designed to unlock up to €200 billion in defense and aerospace investment.

• Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti will present the plan at an EU finance ministers’ meeting in Brussels.
• The scheme, named the European Security and Industrial Innovation Initiative, would use €17 billion in European guarantees to catalyze private investment over five years.
• The EU is considering joint borrowing, EU funds, and an expanded role for the EIB to finance defense projects.
• Decisions expected by June.

Italy is particularly focused on minimizing the impact on its own debt burden, given its already strained public finances.

Asia-Pacific & World News

Citi Downgrades U.S. Equities, Upgrades China on Growth Shifts

Citi has downgraded U.S. equities from “overweight” to “neutral”, marking the end of its bullish call from October 2023, which had been a strong performer. At the same time, Citi has upgraded China equities to “overweight”, citing a shift in global growth momentum.

Key Takeaways from Citi’s Call:

• U.S. growth is slowing relative to other regions, putting a pause on the “U.S. exceptionalism” narrative.
• AI optimism could reignite U.S. stock momentum, but Citi sees this as a longer-term driver rather than an immediate catalyst.
• China’s tech industry, along with government support and attractive valuations, makes Chinese equities more appealing.

One highlight of China’s tech advancements is “DeepSeek”, a high-profile AI showcase that underscores China’s push for leadership in cutting-edge technology.

China’s National People’s Congress Enters Final Session

China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is set to wrap up today, concluding a series of meetings that began on March 5.

• Lawmakers are voting on resolutions and legislative amendments.
• Expect headlines reaffirming China’s commitment to economic stability and Xi Jinping’s long-term policy ambitions.

While no major surprises are expected, any stronger-than-anticipated stimulus signals could impact markets.

U.S.-China Trade Talks at an Impasse

Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have reportedly stalled, with both sides struggling to find common ground, according to a Bloomberg report citing sources familiar with the matter.

• China is frustrated that the U.S. has not provided clear conditions for lifting tariffs, particularly on fentanyl-related enforcement.
• No scheduled in-person meeting between Trump and Xi, limiting chances of progress.

U.S. officials want to discuss multiple issues, including:

• China’s role in global fentanyl production
• Trade deal compliance from Trump’s first term
• The importance of the U.S. dollar in global trade
• Beijing’s stance on ending the war in Ukraine

Without top-level engagement, the outlook for a resolution remains uncertain.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1741 (vs. estimate at 7.2597)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

PBoC injects 37.7bn yuan via 7-Day Reverse Repos at 1.5%

• 38.2bn mature today
• net drains 0.5bn yuan in Open Market Operations

Russia Dismisses Ceasefire Rumors, Signals No Shift in War Stance

The Kremlin has dismissed Western media speculation about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, stating that there are “many rumors” circulating.

• Russia has not received any formal ceasefire proposals.
• The U.S. has pledged to keep Russia informed about its ongoing discussions with Ukraine.
• Putin was briefed on a drone attack targeting the Moscow region, with Russian air defenses repelling the strike.

For now, Russia shows no sign of softening its position, keeping the conflict entrenched.

Australian Business Confidence Drops Back Into Negative Territory

Australian business confidence fell sharply in February, slipping into negative territory despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent rate cut, according to the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Survey.

• Business confidence fell to -1 (January: +5), erasing last month’s gains and remaining well below historical averages.
• Business conditions edged higher to +4 (+1pt), reflecting modest improvements in sales and profitability.
• Cost pressures persist, with purchase costs accelerating and profitability conditions still weak.

NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster noted that businesses remain cautious despite a solid Q4 GDP report and the first RBA rate cut in over a year. While markets anticipate another rate cut by May, policymakers remain non-committal on further easing.

Australian Consumer Confidence Remains Weak

ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence

• 86.9 (previous: 87.7)
• Below 100 = pessimists outnumber optimists
• ANZ notes confidence remains 1.8pts higher than before the RBA rate cut, but sentiment may have been hit by the impacts of ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Westpac Consumer Confidence (March)

• +4% to 95.9 (highest in three years)
• +13.6% YoY
• Confidence is improving on expectations of slowing inflation and the RBA’s first rate cut in over four years.

Market sentiment remains divided, with short-term pessimism still dominating, while longer-term confidence is improving.

New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Rise, But NZD Moves on Global Developments

New Zealand’s Q4 manufacturing sales increased, but the NZD remains driven by global factors—especially Trump’s tariff policies.

• Manufacturing sales volume: +1.1% q/q
• Dairy & meat product sales: +3.1% (NZ’s top export earners)
• Sales rose across 12 of 14 industries

Despite the positive data, global trade tensions continue to overshadow local economic performance, keeping the NZD in flux.

Says Stats NZ:

“The decrease in sales for electricity, gas, water, and waste services was driven by wholesale electricity prices dropping back down after a peak in the previous quarter,”

Japan finance minister Kato says FX developments can affect people’s lives

• Will respond appropriately while monitoring forex impacts.

• Forex developments could impact the Japanese economy and affect people’s lives through import costs.
• Will respond appropriately while monitoring forex impacts.

Japan’s Economy Minister: FX Should Reflect Fundamentals, External Risks Loom

Japan’s Economy Minister Yoshitaka Akazawa emphasized the need for stable exchange rate movements, stating that currency fluctuations should align with economic fundamentals rather than short-term speculation.

• Japan’s economy is expected to recover moderately, though external risks remain, particularly from U.S. trade policies and rising global energy costs.
• Consumer spending remains fragile, as higher food and energy prices weigh on household sentiment.
• The Bank of Japan (BOJ) remains committed to achieving stable 2% inflation, with some progress toward that goal.

While Japan’s economic trajectory remains positive, global headwinds continue to present challenges, reinforcing expectations that monetary policy adjustments will be gradual.

Japan Trade Minister Muto Fails to Secure U.S. Tariff Exemption

Japan’s Trade Minister Kenji Muto was unable to obtain a U.S. tariff exemption during recent talks with American officials, as Washington prepares to implement new trade measures this Wednesday.

• Muto formally requested Japan be exempt from the upcoming tariffs but received no assurances from U.S. officials.
• Despite this, Japan will continue negotiations on broader economic cooperation with the U.S.
• Muto emphasized Japan’s contributions to U.S. economic growth in an effort to strengthen trade ties.
• Discussions also included LNG projects, particularly the Alaska LNG initiative, which remains a key area of interest for both nations.

With no guarantee of tariff relief, Japan now faces potential trade disruptions, adding pressure to its export-driven economy.

Japan’s Household Spending & GDP Growth Disappoint

Household Spending (January):

• +0.8% y/y (expected: +3.6%)
• Month-over-month: -4.5% (expected: -1.9%)

This marks a significant slowdown in Japanese consumer activity.

Final Q4 GDP (2024):

• +0.6% q/q (prelim: +0.7%)
• +2.2% y/y (prelim: +2.8%)
• GDP deflator at 2.9% (prelim: 2.8%)

While growth remains positive, the downward revision signals some loss of momentum, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will stay on hold next week.

Crypto Market Pulse

Crypto Market Rattled by Mt. Gox BTC Movement, Ethereum and XRP Struggle

The cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen to $2.75 trillion, declining 4% on Tuesday, as traders brace for a potential Bitcoin sell-off linked to Mt. Gox repayments.

Bitcoin Market Update:

• BTC fell to $76,606 before rebounding 8% to $82,000 in U.S. trading.
• A $930M Bitcoin transaction from Mt. Gox-linked wallets sparked panic, raising concerns about a major sell-off.
• Bitcoin ETFs recorded $369M in withdrawals, marking six consecutive days of outflows.

Altcoin Market Update:

• Cardano (ADA) surged 10.9% to $0.7365, but liquidation risks remain high ($1.37M in long position liquidations).
• XRP climbed 8.7% to $2.18, yet short traders remain active, with $24.96M in liquidations.
• Ethereum (ETH) rose 6.81% to $1,949.46 but struggles to hold momentum after $140M in liquidations.

Despite Bitcoin’s rebound, altcoin sentiment remains fragile, with derivatives markets flashing mixed signals.

Texas Proposes $250M Bitcoin Reserve Bill

Texas lawmakers have introduced HB 4258, a bill that would allocate $250 million from the state’s economic stabilization fund to Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Key Details:

• Would allow municipalities and counties to invest up to $10 million in crypto.
• Follows the Senate-backed SB 778, marking Texas’ second major legislative push for a state-backed Bitcoin reserve.
• Supporters argue it strengthens Texas’ position as a Bitcoin hub, while critics warn of risks tied to crypto investments.

This move is part of Texas’ broader push to integrate digital assets into its financial system.

Thailand SEC Approves Tether’s USDT for Regulated Trading & Payments

Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially recognized Tether’s USDT for regulated trading and payments, with the approval taking effect on March 16, 2025.

What This Means:

• USDT can now be legally traded on regulated Thai exchanges.
• Businesses can use USDT for payments, potentially expanding stablecoin adoption.
• With a market cap of $142B, USDT is the largest stablecoin, widely used for liquidity and settlement.

This move reflects Thailand’s efforts to modernize digital asset regulations and integrate stablecoins into its economy.

Starknet Plans to Integrate Bitcoin & Ethereum for Unified Layer 2 Network

Starknet has announced plans to create the first Layer 2 solution that will support transactions on both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Why This Matters:

• Would bridge the gap between BTC & ETH, allowing Bitcoin to participate in DeFi.
• Addresses Bitcoin’s high fees and limited smart contract capabilities.
• Will use federated bridges, BitVM-powered bridges, and a future trustless bridge to facilitate secure cross-chain transactions.

This initiative aims to expand Bitcoin’s use case beyond a store of value, enhancing DeFi participation.

Dogecoin & Tesla Investors React to Trump’s Trade War Fallout

Dogecoin (DOGE) and Tesla (TSLA) have been among the hardest-hit assets following Trump’s tariff escalation.

Market Reaction:

• DOGE is down 46% since March 3, falling to $0.14, mirroring Tesla’s 20% decline.
• Tesla lost $200B in market cap, with shares falling from $284 to $227.
• Tesla warned investors that tariffs will impact Q2 sales.
• S&P 500 has declined 8% in the past month, but Tesla has fallen at twice the pace.

Trump’s Support for Musk & Possible DOGE Boost

• Trump announced he’s buying a Tesla, urging Republicans and conservatives to support Musk.
• If Tesla stabilizes, DOGE could see renewed interest, given Musk’s influence.

For now, macro-driven sell-offs continue to weigh on risk assets.

UK Treasury: No Plans for a Bitcoin Reserve (or Stockpile)

The UK Treasury has ruled out introducing a Bitcoin reserve, citing the asset’s historical volatility.

• “Bitcoin and other crypto assets are too volatile to serve as a reserve asset,” a Treasury spokesperson said.
• The UK favors fiat stability over crypto adoption at a sovereign level.

While the U.S. is exploring a Bitcoin stockpile, the UK remains firmly on the sidelines.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

As markets navigate heightened volatility, here are the key themes shaping today’s financial landscape:

Stocks Struggle Amid Tariff War & Geopolitical Uncertainty

• Major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow dropping 478 points (-1.14%) and the S&P 500 falling 0.76%.
• Tariff threats, Ukraine peace talks, and recession concerns kept investors on edge.
• Rallies continue to be sold, signaling persistent caution in risk assets.

U.S.-Canada Trade War Intensifies

• Trump added an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel & aluminum, bringing the total to 50%.
• Auto tariffs could be next, potentially crippling Canada’s car industry.
• Ontario Premier Ford suspended the 25% electricity surcharge, seeking de-escalation.
• Alberta Energy Minister called for a diplomatic solution, but tensions remain high.

Crypto Markets Whipsaw on Mt. Gox Bitcoin Moves

• Bitcoin plunged to $76,606 before rebounding 8% to $82,000 as fears of mass sell-offs loomed.
• Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Cardano (ADA) posted double-digit swings, reflecting trader anxiety.
• Mt. Gox wallets moved $930M in BTC, triggering a wave of liquidations and ETF outflows.
• Texas introduced a $250M Bitcoin reserve bill, furthering its push into crypto adoption.

Gold & Silver Rally as Safe-Haven Demand Surges

• Gold surged past $2,910, boosted by tariff fears & recession concerns.
• Silver neared $32.50, benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar & inflation uncertainty.
• Central banks, including China & Poland, continued accumulating gold, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal.

U.S. Treasury Auction Shows Strong Domestic Demand

• $58B in 3-year notes sold with high domestic participation, but foreign demand lagged.
• Investors rotated into bonds amid stock market turbulence.
• IRA money is reportedly shifting from stocks to fixed income, signaling risk-off sentiment.

Economic Data: Labor Market Remains Resilient, But Uncertainty Looms

• JOLTs job openings exceeded forecasts (7.74M vs. 7.63M), reinforcing labor market strength.
• Small business optimism (NFIB) declined, with owners citing inflation & labor quality concerns.
• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model projects Q1 GDP at -2.4%, raising fears of an economic slowdown.

Key Themes to Watch Next

✅ Will Trump backtrack on the 50% auto tariffs?
✅ U.S. CPI & PPI reports this week – Will inflation support rate-cut bets?
✅ Ukraine peace talks – Can the U.S. broker a ceasefire with Russia?
✅ Crypto volatility – Will Bitcoin remain above $80K amid ETF outflows?
✅ Stock market sentiment – Will buyers step in, or will rallies continue to be sold?

Final Take:
Markets remain at a critical juncture, with tariff risks, inflation concerns, and crypto turmoil driving uncertainty. Investors are seeking safety in bonds, gold, and silver, while stocks and risk assets struggle to find direction. The next big catalyst? U.S. inflation data and Trump’s next move on trade.