Daily Market Roundup

North America News

US Major Indices Close Mixed as Nasdaq Declines, Dow Gains

Wall Street ended Tuesday’s session with mixed results, as tech stocks dragged the Nasdaq lower, while the Dow Jones gained 0.28%, and the S&P 500 closed nearly flat.

📉 Closing Market Performance:

• Dow Jones: +123.24 points (+0.28%) at 44,593.65
• S&P 500: +2.07 points (+0.03%) at 6,068.51
• Nasdaq Composite: -70.41 points (-0.36%) at 19,643.86
• Russell 2000: -12.23 points (-0.53%) at 2,275.70

Stock-Specific Highlights:

• Meta (+0.33%) extended its winning streak, closing higher for the 17th consecutive day at $719.80.
• Intel (+6.07%) surged as tariffs fueled expectations of increased US chip production. The company is building new production facilities in the US.

Earnings Highlights:

✅ Gilead Sciences (GILD) – Beat Expectations

• EPS: $1.90 (vs. $1.70 expected)
• Revenue: $7.57B (vs. $7.14B expected)
• Shares up 3.49% to $99.50

❌ Super Micro (SMCI) – Missed Estimates

• EPS: $0.58-$0.60 (vs. $0.64 expected)
• Revenue: $5.6B-$5.7B (vs. $5.89B expected)
• Lowered full-year guidance to $23.5B-$25B (vs. $24.92B expected)
• Shares still up 1% at $39

❌ Lyft (LYFT) – Missed Expectations

• EPS: $0.15 (vs. $0.22 expected)
• Revenue: $1.55B (vs. $1.56B expected)
• Shares down -10.01% (-$1.44)

✅ DoorDash (DASH) – Mixed Results

• EPS: $0.33 (met expectations)
• Revenue: $2.87B (vs. $2.84B expected)
• Shares down -2.64% to $188

Market Outlook:

While earnings season continues to drive individual stock movements, tariffs, Fed policy signals, and inflation data remain key factors shaping overall market sentiment. Investors will closely watch tech performance and economic reports for further direction.

US treasuries auctions $58 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 4.300%

• WI level at the time of the auction 4.313%

• High yield 4.300%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.313%
• Tail -1.3 basis points vs six-month average of 0.2 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.79Xvs. six-month average of 2.58X
• Directs (domestic buyers) 15.8% vs six-month averages 17.6%
• Indirects (international buyers) 74.0% vs six with average of 65.9%.
• Dealers 10.18% versus six-month average of 16.5%

US January NFIB small business optimism index 102.8 vs 104.6 expected

• Latest data released by NFIB – 11 February 2025
• Prior was 105.1

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.3 points in January to 102.8. This is the third consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 14 points to 100.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “overall, small business owners remain optimistic regarding future business conditions, but uncertainty is on the rise. Hiring challenges continue to frustrate Main Street owners as they struggle to find qualified workers to fill their many open positions. Meanwhile, fewer plan capital investments as they prepare for the months ahead.”

Fed’s Williams: US to grow by around 2% this year and next

• Comments from the NY Fed President

• Monetary policy well-positioned to achieve Fed goals
• Modestly restrictive policy should return inflation to 2%
• Inflation to hang around 2.5% this year and fall to 2% next year
• Fed has made significant progress lowering inflation
• Inflation expectations are well anchored
• US economy is in a good place
• Economic outlook is highly uncertain due to government policy

Powell: We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust policy

• The text of Powell’s opening statement in his appearance at Congress

• The US economy is strong overall
• Policy is well-positioned to deal with risks and uncertainties
• Can maintain policy for longer if economy remains strong and inflation does not move towards 2%
• Can ease if labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation falls more quickly than expected

Powell: Don’t see any reason to be in a hurry to lower rates

• Powell answers questions following his testimony

• We want to make more progress on inflation
• We are in a pretty good place with this economy
• We cannot control long rates (what about that decade of QE?)
• Higher mortgage rates are less related to Fed policy and more to Treasury yields
• View of risks on budget deficit, inflation expectations are among drivers of long-term rates
• I too am troubled by quantity of reports on debanking
• We believe the neutral rate has risen from very low pre-pandemic level
• Concern on labor market has diminished considerably form mid-2024
• It’s not obvious that lower rates would lead to lower housing inflation
• Whether cost of tariffs reaches the consumer depends on factors we haven’t seen yet
• There’s also a question of how persistent and large those costs will be

Fed’s Hammack: It’s likely appropriate to hold rates steady for ‘some time’

• No rush to cut rates from Hammack

• Patient approach to rates will give the Fed some time to assess the economy
• Fed is well-positioned to respond to changes in the economy
• Risks to inflation are now skewed to the upside
• Monetary policy is now ‘modestly restrictive’
• Best to take time to assess impact of any tariffs
• Economy is in a good place and the jobs market is solid
• We will evaluate Trump economic and trade policies as they come in
• It’s unclear how much last year’s rate cuts have factored into the economy
• We may be close to the neutral rate
• Housing has been a stickier part of the inflation equation
• Housing inflation pressure may be set to ease

Fed expected to delay rate cuts as inflation risks rise, economists say (Reuters poll)

• Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outlook

A majority of economists surveyed between February 4-10 expect at least one rate cut by June, though opinions vary on the timing. Out of 101 respondents:

• 22 expect a cut in March
• 45 anticipate a cut in the second quarter
• Only 17 forecast a cut in the second half of 2025
• 16 expect no cuts this year

Forecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banks

• Consensus for headline is 0.32% m/m / 2.9% y/y and for core 0.3% / 3.2%

Via Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal, collecting estimates:

Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline US CPI, but core inflation to pick up

• US January 2025 inflation data due Wednesday (CPI) and Thursday (PPI)

• Deutsche Bank economists expect U.S. consumer price growth to slow in January, with headline CPI rising 0.22% month-over-month, down from 0.4% in December.
• However, they anticipate core CPI, which excludes food and energy, to accelerate to 0.28% from 0.2% in the previous month, signaling persistent underlying inflation pressures.
• Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, set for release on Thursday, is expected to show monthly price growth holding steady at 0.2%, according to the bank’s forecast.

Bank of Canada appoints Michelle Alexopoulos to governing council

• Alexopoulos will be an external governor for two years
• Will begin term on March 17
• Alexopoulos will work with the Bank of Canada in a part-time capacity and will maintain her affiliation with the University of Toronto, where she is a professor of economics

The BOC on Alexopoulos:

Dr. Alexopoulos’ research focuses on the business cycle as well as the effects of technical change and uncertainty. She has conducted innovative work in the application of data mining and textual analysis to create indicators for economic modeling and forecasting. More recently, her research has looked at technological change, productivity and central bank communications.

Canada December building permits +11.0% vs +1.7% expected

• Canada December 2024 building permit data
• Prior was -5.9%

Canada promises response will be “clear and calibrated” on US steel, aluminium tariffs

• Canada consulting with international partners on US tariffs – response will be “clear and calibrated”
• says he is consulting with international partners on the US steel and aluminum tariffs and that Canada’s response will be “clear and calibrated.”

Commodities News

Gold Pulls Back After Hitting Record High Amid Powell Testimony

Gold prices hit an all-time high of $2,942 before retreating 0.18% to $2,900 on Tuesday, as profit-taking and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony slowed momentum.

Market Drivers: Powell’s Commentary & Economic Data

• Powell stated that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates, citing strong economic indicators and balanced labor market conditions.
• Inflation remains above 2%, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack preferring to keep rates steady for an extended period.
• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 102.8, the lowest since October 2018.

Central Bank Demand & Market Expectations

• The World Gold Council reported over 1,000 tons in central bank gold purchases for the third consecutive year, up 54% YoY.
• Money markets now price in 38.5 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2025, slightly lower than before.

Gold’s next move depends on upcoming inflation data and further Fed commentary, with Treasury yields and geopolitical risks remaining key drivers.

Silver Finds Support at $31.30 After Sharp Drop

Silver prices plummeted to $31.30 before stabilizing in Tuesday’s North American session, supported by a weaker US Dollar ahead of Powell’s testimony.

Key Factors Impacting Silver

• Powell reiterated that rate cuts won’t happen until inflation shows ‘real progress’ or labor market conditions weaken.
• Nonfarm Payrolls data showed job growth slowing, but unemployment remained at 4.0%, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance.
• Trump’s 25% steel and aluminum tariffs continue to stoke trade war fears, supporting silver’s safe-haven appeal.

Silver’s Technical Outlook

• Support: $31.30 | $31.00 | $30.85
• Resistance: $31.85 | $32.20 | $32.50

With global trade tensions rising, silver could remain in demand, but interest rate policy will play a crucial role in determining price direction.

Crude oil settles up $1.00 at $73.32

• The high reached $73.68. The low was at $72.31

Crude oil futures are settling up one dollar at $73.32.

The price rallied to one-week highs, supported by a weaker dollar and supply concerns stemming from U.S. sanctions on Russian crude production. Additional support came from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, which raised crude selling prices for Asian buyers in March.

On the downside, concerns over potential retaliation against President Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and finished metals imports could lead to higher prices and slower US growth.

Looking at the daily chart, the price moved back above its 100 day moving average is $71.39 yesterday. The 200 day moving average looms above at $74.16. Last week, the price tried to extend above that moving average reaching a high price of $75.14 before rotating to the downside and closing at $72.25. The last close above its 100 day moving average was back on January 22.

Oil: Energy complex is being pushed higher – ING

WTI is trading above $72/bbl while ICE Brent edged above $76/bbl this morning, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.

Geopolitical tensions push oil prices up

“NYMEX WTI is trading above $72/bbl while ICE Brent edged above $76/bbl this morning as the energy sector in Ukraine and Russia continue to face drone assaults, while signs of tighter supplies in Russia and rising geopolitical tensions further pushed the energy complex higher.”

“According to media reports, drones attacked a Russian oil refinery plant in the Saratov region. The affected plant is part of the Rosneft oil company known as Kreking, one of the oldest Russian oil refineries. Meanwhile, Russia also targeted Ukraine’s gas and power facilities in an overnight attack.”

EU’s gas storage targets are under pressure – Rabobank

Europe continues to face high energy prices due to gas supply concerns, global trade tensions, and low wind levels. Gas prices have averaged €50/MWh so far this year, with German baseload power prices at €122/MWh, the highest since early 2023 and late 2022, respectively, Rabobank’s Energy Strategist Florence Schmit notes. 

Europe continues to face high energy prices

“The EU’s gas storage targets are under pressure due to unfavorable summer-winter spreads, leading to low storage incentives over the coming months. Current storage levels are already below 50% of capacity and risk being depleted to 30% by the end of March.”

“Sanctions on Russia’s energy sector remain the biggest risk premium for European gas, with Russian pipeline gas accounting for 5% of Europe’s supply mix and Russian LNG accounting for 16% of LNG deliveries. China’s 15% tariff on imports of U.S. LNG temporarily frees up supply for Europe but does not alter global supply availability in the short term.”

“Wind power generation so far this winter retreated to the lowest since the winter of 2020/2021 but the continued buildout of renewable capacity could help prices end the upward spiral from spring.” 

Europe News

European major indices close higher on the day

• Gains led by the Italy’s FTSE MIB and German DAX

The major European indices are closing higher. The German DAX and the Italy’s FTSE MIB are leading the way.

• For the German DAX, it is closing at a new all-time record level of 22034.14. The index reached a intraday record at 22046.41.
• For Italy’s FTSE MIB, it surged by 0.91% closing at 37582.04. That was the highest level going back to June 2008.

Looking at the other major indices in Europe:

• France CAC rose 0.28%
• UK’s FTSE 100 closed up 0.11% which was good enough for a another record close for that indice
• Spain’s Ibex rose 0.52%, closing at its highest level since June 2008

UK BRC Like-for-like Retail Sales (January) +2.5% y/y Prior +3.1%)

• British Retail Consortium (BRC) data for January 2025:

Like for like sales +2.5% y/y

• prior +3.1%

Total sales +2.6% y/y, partly inflated by weak year-ago data and a December boost from Black Friday timing differences.

• 12 month average is 0.8%

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson:

• January a solid month for retail
• stormy weather temporarily impacted demand

With retailers bracing for £7 billion in extra costs:

• due to higher social security contributions, a rising minimum wage, and a new packaging levy,

Dickinson warned.

• “Many businesses will have little choicee but to raise prices and cut investment in jobs and stores”

Barclays recorded a 1.9% increase in consumer spending, the strongest since March, despite a decline in consumer confidence to its lowest level since the bank began tracking it in April.

EU trade commissioner says US will be taxing its own citizens by imposing tariffs

• Remarks by EU trade commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič

• Deeply regrets tariffs by Trump administration
• Latest tariffs are a lose-lose scenario
• Trade thrives on predictability and fair rules
• EU prepared to face up to any challenges in this new era
• Tariffs are taxes
• They are bad for business and worse for consumers
• US will be taxing its own citizens by imposing tariffs
• It will raise costs for its own businesses and fuel inflation

Europe should respond in a united manner to Trump’s tariffs, says French industry minister

• Remarks by French industry minister, Marc Ferracci

• Trump’s latest tariff measures could have impact on French industry
• Europe should respond in a united and firm manner to Trump’s tariffs
• Hopes that the response will happen soon

BoE’s Mann says UK inflation is less of a threat, prices coming close to 2% target

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann in the Financial Times, Reuters with the main points:

• UK inflation is becoming less of a threat as corporate pricing power weakens, says a Bank of England official.
• Bank of England’s Catherine Mann: “I can see pricing coming very close to [2 percent] target-consistent [levels] in the year ahead.”
• Bank of England’s Catherine Mann: “Demand conditions are quite a bit weaker than has been the case — and I have changed my mind on that.”
• As an activist policymaker, I chose 50 bps now, along with continued restrictiveness in the future, and a higher long-term bank rate to “cut through the noise”
• Notwithstanding the 50 bps cut now, structural impediments to achieve inflation target on a sustained basis are not yet fully purged
• Current and likely continued weak demand conditions will lead to further loosening of the labour market
• I am at the higher end of the 3% to 3.50% range of estimate for long run equilibrium on the bank rate
• Need to maintain policy rate discipline and restrictiveness even after this immediate voting decision

Asia-Pacific & World News

US tariffs on China could be paused if “serious headway” is made on fentanyl – report

• WSJ report

The WSJ reports, citing ‘a US administration official’ that US 10% tariffs on China ‘could be paused’ if “serious headway” is made on fentanyl when Trump and Xi next speak.

The pair were supposed to speak last week but the call was delayed and hasn’t been rescheduled. The WSJ says that’s because China hasn’t yet made an offer to Trump’s liking.

The report highlights that China isn’t in a rush because it doesn’t want a piecemeal deal but a larger one.

“Rather than focusing solely on a deal about fentanyl, he aims to negotiate a broader agreement with Trump that could define the tone of bilateral relations”

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1716 (vs. estimate at 7.3067)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

Australia January business confidence +4 (prior -2)

• National Australia Bank business survey, for January 2025

National Australia Bank business survey, for January 2025:

Business Confidence +4, improved on expectations of lower interest rates

• prior -2.0

Business Conditions +3

• prior 6.0
• sales (down 4 to 6) and profits (down 6 to -2) declined
• margin pressures, particularly in retail
• Alan Oster, NAB’s chief economist says “Cost pressures remain high for businesses, but they aren’t fully passing them on to consumers, which is weighing on profitability and overall business conditions”

The survey provided conflicting signals on inflation:

• Labour costs accelerated to a quarterly pace of 1.8%.
• Purchase cost growth slowed to 1.1%.
• Retail prices rose at a 0.9% quarterly pace, up from 0.7% in December.

Meanwhile, capacity utilisation fell to 82.0% from 82.7%, indicating slightly more slack in the economy.

Australia February Consumer Sentiment +0.1% (prior -0.7%)

• Westpac monthly consumer confidence survey

Australia February Consumer Sentiment

+0.1% to 92.2

prior -0.7% (92.1)

Trump and Australian PM Albanese have spoken

• Albanese press conference underway

• “I had a great conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump. We committed to working constructively together to advance Australian and American interests.”
• “I look forward to working closely with President Trump to create jobs and deliver benefits for both our nations.”
• Discussed Australia’s position on US tariffs over steel and aluminium
• Trump agreed to consider an exemption for Australian steel tariffs

New Zealand’s finance minister Willis says NZ has a warm relationship with the US

• March 4 is the date due for the imposition of these tariffs.

Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others – no exception tariffs

• Trump’s blanket imposition of tariffs – no exceptions, no exemptions – trashes existing trade deals

Trump extended steel and aluminum tariffs to apply to all imports, effectively ending agreements with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, and other countries.

The new executive order strengthens the original 2018 tariffs set at 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum by increasing duties, closing loopholes, and removing exemptions, according to a White House official.

March 4 is the target date for the new tariffs to kick in. This is the day the 30 day pause on Mexico and Canada tariffs is due to end.

As for domestic prices for steel and aluminium. Just over 80% of aluminum used in the US is imported, so these new blanket tariffs are likely to drive prices higher for US customers. Steel perhaps not so much, with imports of finished steel accounting for around 20% of US use.

• Trump says also looking at tariffs on cars, chips and pharmaceuticals
• does not mind if other countries retaliate

Update: Trump has said, though, that he will ‘consider’ an exemption for Australia.

Crypto Market Pulse

XRP Joins Litecoin, DOGE, and Solana in Potential SEC ETF Approvals for 2025

XRP surged 3% on Tuesday after Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart listed it among the top crypto ETF contenders for SEC approval in 2025.

Crypto ETFs: Approval Odds & Market Impact

• XRP, Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL) are strong candidates for spot crypto ETFs.
• Asset managers like Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise have already filed applications for XRP ETFs.
• Litecoin (90%) and Dogecoin (75%) have the highest approval chances due to their Bitcoin-like structure.
• Solana (70%) and XRP (65%) also have strong odds, particularly under Trump’s pro-crypto administration.

SEC vs. Ripple Case No Longer a Major Barrier

• Judge Torres’s ruling in August clarified that XRP is not a security for retail sales, boosting ETF prospects.
• XRP investment products saw $21 million in net inflows last week, signaling institutional demand.

XRP Price Outlook

• Key support levels: $2.33 and $1.96.
• If XRP ETFs receive approval, market inflows could drive significant price gains.

The crypto market remains optimistic, as ETF approvals could unlock billions in institutional investment.

Uniswap’s UNI Rallies as Layer-2 Unichain Goes Live on Mainnet

Uniswap Labs has officially launched Unichain, its Layer-2 solution built on the Optimism Superchain, aiming to provide faster and cheaper transactions for DeFi users.

Key Highlights of Unichain’s Launch

• Built on Optimism Superchain, offering 95% cost reduction compared to Ethereum L1.
• Major protocols like Uniswap, Coinbase, Lido, and Circle are already integrating with Unichain.
• Uniswap V4 upgrades, including customizable smart contract hooks, went live just two weeks prior.
• Users can bridge assets, create tokens, and integrate stablecoins via Uniswap Wallet.

UNI Price Action & Market Sentiment

• UNI jumped over 6% following the announcement, though it has since corrected.
• If Unichain adoption gains traction, UNI could recover from its 30% decline in the past month.

With DeFi growth and Ethereum scaling in focus, Unichain’s launch marks a significant step in Uniswap’s expansion.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Markets React to Powell Testimony, Tariff Uncertainty, and Energy Market Shifts

US equity markets closed mixed, with the Nasdaq (-0.36%) slipping, the S&P 500 (+0.03%) holding steady, and the Dow Jones (+0.28%) gaining as investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and ongoing tariff concerns.

Meta extended its record 17-day winning streak, while Intel surged 6.07% on expectations of increased US chip production due to trade restrictions. Meanwhile, earnings results were a mixed bag, with Gilead outperforming but Lyft and Super Micro missing estimates.

Gold pulled back from a record high of $2,942, dipping 0.18% to $2,900, after Powell downplayed recession fears and reaffirmed a cautious rate policy. Silver also saw support at $31.30, with trade war concerns keeping precious metals in focus. Money markets now price in 38.5 basis points of Fed rate cuts in 2025, slightly lower than before.

Oil prices climbed for a second session, with WTI above $72/bbl and Brent exceeding $76/bbl, as drone attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities heightened supply risks. Geopolitical tensions, alongside US sanctions on Iranian crude shipments, have added pressure to the energy markets.

European gas prices remain elevated, with Rabobank warning that the EU’s storage targets are under pressure due to low wind power output, supply constraints, and unfavorable market spreads. Storage levels are now below 50% of capacity and could drop to 30% by March, keeping energy prices volatile in the near term.

Crypto markets remain in focus, as XRP, Solana, Litecoin, and Dogecoin have been identified as top candidates for SEC crypto ETF approvals in 2025, boosting sentiment. Meanwhile, Uniswap’s launch of its Layer-2 Unichain fueled a brief 6% rally in UNI, though gains have since been pared back.

With tariffs, energy supply risks, Fed policy, and corporate earnings all in play, market volatility remains high as investors await upcoming inflation reports and further Fed commentary.