North America News
U.S. Stocks Plunge as Nasdaq Suffers Worst Day Since 2022
Wall Street was hit hard, with the Nasdaq dropping 4%—its worst single-day decline since September 2022.
Major U.S. Index Losses – March 11, 2025:
- Nasdaq: -727.90 points (-4.0%) to 17,291.82 (intraday low: -904 points)
- S&P 500: -155.64 points (-2.70%) to 5,614.56
- Dow Jones: -890.01 points (-2.08%) to 41,911.71
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed below their 200-day moving averages, signaling a potential shift in market momentum.
Biggest Decliners:
- Tesla (TSLA): -15.43%
- Nvidia (NVDA): -5.07%
- Apple (AAPL): -4.85%
- Google (GOOGL): -4.60%
- Meta (META): -4.42%
- Amazon (AMZN): -3.36%
- Microsoft (MSFT): -3.34%
Crypto & Tech Sell-Off Hits Hard:
- Robinhood Markets: -19.79%
- MicroStrategy: -16.68%
- Trump Media & Technology Group: -11.47%
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust: -9.25%
- ARK Innovation ETF: -8.75%
Despite the heavy losses, markets bounced slightly into the close, leaving traders to assess whether this is a buying opportunity or the start of a deeper correction.
U.S. Employment Trends Weaken as Policy Uncertainty Grows
The U.S. Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined in February, hitting its lowest level since October 2024.
Key insights:
- The ETI fell to 108.56, down from a revised 109.45 in January.
- Policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on both business and consumer sentiment.
- Federal layoffs and funding disruptions are expected to have a greater impact in the coming months.
The Conference Board’s Mitchell Barnes warned that early signs of a labor market slowdown are emerging:
- Unemployment claims rose 3.4% to 224,000.
- Involuntary part-time work increased to 18%, its highest since 2021.
- Temporary job losses reached 22,000 over January and February.
While the broader labor market remains resilient, these indicators suggest early signs of strain that could affect hiring trends in the months ahead.
NY Fed: U.S. Inflation Expectations Edge Higher for 2025
The New York Federal Reserve’s latest survey shows a slight uptick in one-year inflation expectations, rising from 3.0% to 3.1%.
- Three-year expectations remained steady at 3.0%.
- Five-year expectations also held at 3.0%.
- Concerns over credit markets and job stability are on the rise, reaching their highest level since November 2023.
- Expected consumer spending growth accelerated, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures.
While the Fed has signaled a measured approach to rate adjustments, rising expectations could complicate its policy path.
Trump and XI working towards a June summit – report
- Talks are in the early stages
The WSJ reports that Trump and Xi’s deputies are in discussions about a potential June summit, citing people familiar.
The report highlights that the summit could coincide with their birthdays on June 14 (Trump) and June 15 (Xi). A big question is on where the Summit will be with Xi showing reluctance to travel to the US in light of the episode with Zelensky in the oval office, according to the report.
Hassett: Trade policy uncertainty will be resolved in early April
- Hassett on CNBC
- Be wary of recession talk, expect Q1 to squeak into positive territory
- Trump trade policy is starting to have intended effect of bringing manufacturing and jobs to the US
- Many reasons to be bullish about US economy despite ‘some blips’
- Highlights the decline in the 10-year yield
Fed’s Daly Warns Uncertainty Could Slow U.S. Demand, But No Rate Moves Yet
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly cautioned that rising economic uncertainty among businesses could temper demand, but she emphasized that this does not warrant an immediate shift in interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to keep rates steady in its upcoming meeting, with policymakers opting for a measured approach rather than reacting to short-term market fluctuations. Her remarks align with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who reiterated last week that there’s no urgency to alter current monetary policy.
Trump Administration Moves Forward with Steel and Aluminum Tariffs
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed over the weekend that the planned 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will proceed as scheduled on March 12. When asked on NBC’s Meet the Press whether the tariffs would be delayed, Lutnick was unequivocal:
“Yes.”
Trump Eyes Potential Tariff Moves on Russia, Confident in Avoiding Shutdown
Speaking to the media on Sunday, former President Donald Trump stated that his administration is “looking at a lot of things” regarding tariffs on Russia, signaling potential shifts in trade policy. Meanwhile, as government funding nears its March 14 deadline, Trump acknowledged the possibility of a shutdown but remains optimistic that the continuing resolution (CR) will pass.
“It shouldn’t have happened, but I don’t think it will,” he remarked, emphasizing confidence in securing an extension to sustain federal operations through the end of fiscal year 2025.
ICYMI: Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs Trim U.S. Growth Forecasts, Citing Inflation and Tariff Concerns
Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have revised their U.S. economic growth projections downward, citing persistent inflationary pressures and the economic impact of tariffs.
- Morgan Stanley now expects U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 (down from 1.9%) and 1.2% in 2026 (down from 1.3%).
- Inflation is projected to rise more than previously expected, with goods prices reaccelerating sooner than anticipated.
- A tight labor market and firm inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
- The firm expects just one more 25bp rate cut in 2025, likely in June, and two additional cuts in 2026—later than market expectations.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has also trimmed its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% (down from 2.2%) and has raised its U.S. recession probability from 15% to 20%, though it still considers the risk relatively low.
Bank of America: What to Expect from the Bank of Canada & USD/CAD
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with Bank of America (BofA) expecting a 25bps rate cut to 2.75%.
Key Takeaways from BofA’s Outlook:
- BoC is prioritizing growth as inflation concerns ease.
- Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on economic projections.
- Policymakers may view currency depreciation as a stabilizer for trade disruptions.
- USD/CAD reaction expected to be muted, with markets focused on trade talks and election uncertainties.
BofA forecasts the BoC’s terminal rate at 2.5%, with further cuts possible as economic risks persist.
Ontario Imposes 25% Surcharge on Electricity Exports to the U.S.
Fulfilling a prior promise, Ontario Premier Doug Ford has introduced a 25% export tax on electricity sold to the United States.
- Ontario supplies electricity to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota, powering roughly 1.5 million U.S. homes.
- The new charge adds $10 per megawatt-hour to exported electricity.
- Ford has warned that he could raise the surcharge further or halt exports altogether if necessary.
As trade tensions escalate, financial markets remain wary of the broader implications of retaliatory tariff measures.
Canada’s New Prime Minister Mark Carney Poised for Early Election Call
Speculation is heating up in Canada over the possibility of newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney calling an early federal election—potentially as soon as Monday. While the next election is officially scheduled for October 20, 2025, Carney has hinted at accelerating the timeline, with some reports suggesting a call before the end of April or early May. Meanwhile, in his latest statement, Carney underscored his stance on trade, asserting:
“My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect.”
Commodities News
Gold Falls Below $2,900 Amid U.S. Recession Fears & Profit-Taking
Gold prices tumbled below $2,900 per ounce, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, profit-taking, and mounting U.S. recession fears.
Market Drivers:
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow projects Q1 2025 GDP at -2.4%, marking the first contraction since COVID-19.
- US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers to 103.99, capping gold’s upside.
- Fed Chair Powell signaled no urgency to cut rates, dampening gold’s appeal.
With U.S. CPI data due Wednesday, traders are watching for inflation signals that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.
WASDE Report: Market Braces for U.S. Corn and Soybean Estimates
The USDA is set to release its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday.
ING’s Expectations:
- U.S. Corn ending stocks to decline by 22M bushels to 1,518M bushels.
- Soybean ending stocks expected unchanged at 380M bushels.
- Wheat stocks could see a marginal increase to 799M bushels.
- Argentina’s corn and soybean output may be revised downward.
- Brazilian soybean output could see a slight upward revision.
Trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment, with money managers increasing net short positions in CBOT wheat, corn, and soybeans.
Oil Market: Saudi Arabia Cuts Prices as Speculators Turn Bearish
After a sharp 3.9% drop in crude oil prices last week, Saudi Arabia has responded by cutting its official selling prices (OSPs) for April loadings.
Key Market Developments:
- OPEC+ is set to increase supply, adding further downward pressure on prices.
- Chinese crude oil imports declined 3.4% YoY, raising demand concerns.
- ICE Brent net speculative long positions fell to 159,425 lots—the smallest since December 2024.
This week, the oil market will be closely watching reports from the EIA, OPEC, and IEA, all set for release over the next few days.
Oil Producers Scaling Back Investment, Defying Trump’s ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Push
As energy executives gather in Houston for CERAWeek, industry leaders warn that rising costs are prompting oil producers to tighten capital spending—contrary to former President Trump’s push for increased drilling.
Josh Young, CIO at Bison Interests, noted:
“The costs are way higher, affecting profitability. You’re starting to see producers hold back their capital—it’s the opposite of what the president wants.”
Dan Pickering, CIO at Pickering Energy Partners, echoed this sentiment:
“Shareholders demand capital discipline and returns, while the president says ‘drill, baby, drill.’ I think companies pay lip service to the president but follow the wishes of their shareholders.”
This tension highlights the ongoing struggle between political rhetoric and financial realities in the energy sector.
Europe News
European Markets Slide as Global Equities Face Heavy Selling Pressure
It was a brutal day for equities across Europe and the U.S., with major indices closing sharply lower.
European Market Close – March 11, 2025:
- German DAX: -401.79 points (-1.75%) to 22,607.16
- France’s CAC 40: -73.20 points (-0.90%) to 8,047.61
- UK’s FTSE 100: -79.64 points (-0.92%) to 8,600.23
- Spain’s IBEX 35: -174.42 points (-1.32%) to 13,082.69
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: -366.99 points (-0.95%) to 38,225.81
This comes after record highs in German equities last Thursday, with the DAX peaking at 23,475.88 before reversing.
With no clear winners in the equity space, investors remain cautious amid economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks.
Eurozone Investor Confidence Surges to Highest Level Since 2021
The latest Sentix Investor Confidence survey for March came in at -2.9, a significant improvement from -8.4 expected and -12.7 prior.
- Economic expectations are now at their highest level since July 2021.
- Sentix notes that German investors are particularly optimistic, with Germany’s expectations index soaring from -5.8 to 20.5.
The sentiment boost follows Germany’s debt brake reform, which appears to have reassured markets.
Germany’s Industrial Production Rebounds, Surges 2.0% in January
Germany’s industrial production rose 2.0% month-over-month in January, exceeding expectations of +1.5%.
- Prior reading: -2.4%
- Excluding energy & construction: +2.6%
- Intermediate goods output: +3.3%
- Capital goods production: +2.4%
- Consumer goods: +0.5%
- Energy production: -0.4%
- Construction output: +0.5%
The rebound signals resilience in Germany’s manufacturing sector, particularly in intermediate and capital goods production.
Germany’s Trade Surplus Narrows to €16.0 Billion in January
Germany’s trade surplus declined in January, coming in at €16.0 billion, well below the expected €20.6 billion.
- Prior reading: €20.7 billion
- Exports fell: -2.5%
- Imports rose: +1.2%
As Germany navigates trade challenges, the key figure to watch for 2025 will be the total annual trade surplus, which stood at €241.2 billion in 2024.
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Sight Deposits Edge Higher
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reported that total sight deposits increased to CHF 444.1 billion in the week ending March 7, up from CHF 437.4 billion previously.
- Domestic sight deposits: CHF 435.9 billion (prior CHF 429.4 billion)
The rise in deposits, while notable, remains within typical fluctuations seen in recent months.
Bundesbank’s Nagel Lays Out Bold 12-Point Reform Vision for Germany
In a speech that veered into political territory, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel unveiled a 12-point plan to revive Germany’s economic growth, currently languishing at just 0.4% per year—a full percentage point lower than the previous decade.
Key points from his proposal include:
- Boosting labor supply by increasing part-time hours, improving childcare access, and incentivizing older workers to remain in the workforce.
- Expanding labor-focused immigration with faster visa processing and better integration.
- Reforming welfare to improve work incentives.
- Strengthening carbon pricing and phasing out climate-damaging subsidies that contradict green policies.
- Enhancing energy transition frameworks and integrating European energy markets for better efficiency.
- Reducing bureaucracy and streamlining corporate tax policies to attract business investment.
- Accelerating administrative decision-making through stricter time limits.
Nagel also backed the ECB’s March rate cut of 25bps, calling it appropriate given progress on price stability.
With Mark Carney poised to become Canada’s Prime Minister, expect more central bankers to step into the policy arena with reform-driven rhetoric.
ECB’s Kažimír: Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside
- Remarks by ECB policymaker, Peter Kažimír
- We must remain open minded on whether we cut rates or pause
- Geopolitical and trade tensions add another layer of unpredictability
- We are looking for undeniable confirmation that disinflation will stay
- Tariffs historically lead to slow growth and boost inflation
Germany’s Greens Oppose Spending Bill, But Compromise Expected
Germany’s Green Party is pushing back against CDU and SPD-backed spending plans, with co-chair Katharina Dröge urging party members not to support the bill unless it ensures investments in climate and infrastructure.
However, the CDU/CSU-SPD alliance remains confident that the Greens will eventually agree, stating:
“In the end, they will support it out of political responsibility, as they have always advocated for such a special fund.”
Meanwhile, Green Party co-leader Felix Banaszak confirmed that they will present their own legislative proposal for security and defense spending, emphasizing:
“The goal is to reach an agreement.”
While negotiations continue, this could simply be a strategic move by the Greens to extract policy concessions before ultimately backing the bill.
Asia-Pacific & World News
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1733 (vs. estimate at 7.2355)
- PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.
PBoC injects 96.5bn yuan via 7-Day Reverse Repos at 1.5%
- 97bn mature today
- net drains 0.5bn yuan in Open Market Operations
China to Bolster Property Market by Encouraging Existing Home Purchases
China’s Housing Minister, Ni Hong, announced new measures to stimulate the nation’s real estate sector, signaling government support for purchasing existing homes. The property market showed signs of stabilization in January and February following prior declines, with growing buyer confidence.
Key initiatives include:
- Accelerating urban village redevelopment
- Expanding lending for “White List” projects
- Enhancing local government autonomy for affordable housing investments
- Using special bonds for purchasing idle land and housing stock
These measures reflect Beijing’s commitment to revitalizing the real estate sector amid broader economic adjustments.
China’s Inflation Returns to Deflationary Territory in February
China’s latest inflation data reveals a renewed dip into deflation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell -0.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of a -0.5% drop. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained in negative territory at -2.2% y/y, highlighting ongoing price pressures.
The National Bureau of Statistics attributes the decline to:
- A higher base effect from last year’s Lunar New Year-driven price increases
- Volatility in global commodity prices
- Favorable weather improving vegetable supply, contrasting with last year’s inflationary weather disruptions
However, the agency noted that adjusting for holiday effects would have placed CPI at +0.1%, suggesting a more stable underlying trend.
New Zealand’s Deputy PM Winston Peters Set for High-Level U.S. Meetings
New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will visit the U.S. this week for key discussions with senior Trump Administration officials. His itinerary includes meetings with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, prominent U.S. political figures, and top United Nations representatives.
“The United States is one of New Zealand’s closest and most important partners,” Peters stated. “This visit allows us to strengthen our bilateral relationship and continue building on our long history of cooperation.”
Japan’s January Leading Indicator Index Inches Up to 108.0
The latest Japan Cabinet Office data shows the Leading Indicator Index for January ticked up to 108.0, compared to 107.9 previously.
- Coincident Index: 116.2 (Prior: 116.1)
While the marginal increase suggests stability, the Cabinet Office’s assessment remains unchanged, stating that the index is still “halting to fall.”
Japan Posts First Current Account Deficit in Two Years Amid Yen Weakness & High Imports
Japan recorded a current account deficit in January for the first time in two years, driven by a weak yen and increased electronics imports ahead of the Lunar New Year. The ¥257.6 billion ($1.75 billion) deficit exceeded market expectations.
- Imports surged +17.7%
- Exports grew only +2.1%
Key Economic Indicators (January 2025):
- Adjusted Current Account: ¥1.94T (expected ¥1.97T, prior ¥2.73T)
- Current Account (n.s.a.): ¥-0.258T (expected -0.230T, prior ¥1.077T)
- Bank Lending (YoY, February): +3.1% (expected +3.1%, prior +3.0%)
Japan’s economic data suggests rising wage growth but continued external pressures on trade.
Japan’s Inflation-Adjusted Wages Drop Despite Strong Nominal Growth
Japan’s latest wage data for January 2025 presents a mixed picture. While Labour Cash Earnings grew by +2.8% y/y, real wages—adjusted for inflation—declined by -1.8% y/y, marking the sharpest drop in two years.
Key figures:
- Nominal earnings: +2.8% y/y (expected +3.0%, prior +4.4%)
- Real wages: -1.8% y/y (expected -1.6%, prior +0.3%)
- Overtime pay: +3.1% y/y (prior +0.8%)
The wage data arrives just days before Japan’s annual spring labor negotiations, where major unions have demanded an average 6.09% pay hike. These discussions will set the tone for wage growth expectations across the broader economy.
South Korea to Hold High-Level Talks with U.S. Over Tariff Concerns & Industrial Cooperation
South Korea is preparing for consultations with the United States to discuss potential economic cooperation in the shipbuilding and energy sectors, as well as concerns over U.S. tariff policies.
South Korea’s acting president has issued directives to:
- Engage in active discussions with Washington over tariff rates and trade policy.
- Seek deeper cooperation in key industries such as shipbuilding and energy.
- Review U.S. non-tariff measures that could impact South Korean exports.
The talks come amid growing concerns in Seoul over the economic impact of U.S. trade policies, as South Korea seeks to safeguard its industrial interests while maintaining strong bilateral ties.
Crypto Market Pulse
Crypto Markets: Ethereum Struggles, Bitcoin Rebounds Slightly
The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with Ethereum (ETH) down 2%, trading near the $2,000 psychological level, while Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to rebound 3% to reclaim $82,200 after testing lows near $80,000.
Key Crypto Developments:
- ETF outflows continue to weigh on Ethereum.
- Bybit hackers cashed out $300M of stolen funds, triggering further BTC declines.
- Liquidations totaled $687.73M in the last 24 hours.
Despite the recovery, Bitcoin remains vulnerable, with technical resistance levels still intact.
Bitcoin Drops Below $80,000 as Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold
Bitcoin has tumbled below $80,000, with today’s session low touching $79,370—its weakest level since the U.S. election.
- The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement failed to boost sentiment, leading to a “sell-the-fact” reaction.
- Bitcoin is down $3,000 on the day, and technical weakness is adding to selling pressure.
Key technical levels:
- Bitcoin has fallen below the 200-day moving average (MA) at $83,370, signaling increased bearish momentum.
- The price is now testing the 50% retracement level of its rally from the August 2024 low.
- A breakdown below $78,273 (February’s intraday low) could open the door to the 61.8% retracement level near $72,535.
- On the upside, a reclaim of $83,370 would shift momentum back in favor of buyers, with resistance at $86,600.
Many “Trump trades” have also fully reversed, with Tesla dropping 9%, now trading below its pre-election levels.
While Bitcoin surged from $69K to $76.5K on election day, it has since retreated, remaining within its long-term range of $55K–$73K seen over the past year.
If BTC remains below the 200-day MA, sellers could stay in control, raising the risk of a deeper correction.
Utah Drops Plan for Bitcoin Reserve, Opts for Limited Blockchain Legislation
Utah was poised to become the first U.S. state with a Bitcoin reserve, but lawmakers ultimately decided to scrap the plan. Instead, they passed HB230—the “Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendments” bill—without the provision allowing the state treasurer to invest in Bitcoin.
The revised bill, now awaiting Governor Spencer Cox’s signature, secures residents’ rights regarding Bitcoin custody, mining, node operation, and staking. However, a clause that initially allowed up to 5% of state investments to be allocated to Bitcoin was removed in the final draft.
While Utah backed away from a state-held Bitcoin reserve, Arizona and Texas are moving forward with similar proposals. Out of 31 state-level Bitcoin reserve bills, 25 remain under consideration across the U.S.
Michael Saylor Urges U.S. to Acquire 25% of Bitcoin Supply by 2035
At last week’s White House Crypto Summit, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, proposed that the U.S. government acquire 25% of Bitcoin’s total supply by 2035, establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. His plan calls for systematic Bitcoin purchases of 5–25% of the total supply over a decade, by which time 99% of Bitcoin will have been issued.
Saylor believes such a reserve could generate between $16 trillion and $81 trillion by 2045, potentially offsetting national debt. He also urged President Trump and crypto leaders to adopt a “Never sell your Bitcoin” policy.
Trump has already signed an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, initially funded by seized cryptocurrency assets, with plans for further acquisitions. However, instead of Saylor’s ambitious reserve proposal, the summit led to a Bitcoin stockpile initiative—a significantly scaled-down version of his vision.
If the U.S. were to follow Saylor’s full plan, it would hold 5.25 million BTC, far exceeding Senator Cynthia Lummis’ proposal of 1 million BTC. Meanwhile, Saylor’s firm Strategy continues to expand its holdings, recently purchasing $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to nearly 500,000 BTC.
For now, however, Saylor’s reserve idea has been shelved, with only the stockpile concept receiving approval.
Bitcoin Faces Continued Selling Pressure, Dips Below $81K
Bitcoin remains under pressure as liquidation forces its price below $81,000, nearing the critical $80K level. The broader crypto market is also reacting to ongoing uncertainty, with Ethereum slipping below $2,000. Adding to the turbulence, investors remain disappointed over the much-anticipated Trump Crypto “Reserve,” which ultimately failed to materialize.
The Day’s Takeaway
Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments
As the markets navigate a volatile trading environment, here are the key takeaways from today’s major developments across commodities, equities, crypto, and macroeconomic policy:
Global Markets Face Sharp Sell-Offs
- U.S. equities plunged, with the Nasdaq suffering its worst day since September 2022 (-4.0%) and the S&P 500 closing below its 200-day MA for the first time since October 2023.
- European markets followed suit, as the DAX, CAC 40, FTSE 100, and other major indices closed significantly lower.
- Big tech stocks, crypto-related firms, and speculative assets took the biggest hits, as risk appetite deteriorated.
Energy Markets: Oil Prices Continue to Slide
- WTI crude dipped to $66.38 per barrel, and Brent fell below $70, marking an eighth consecutive weekly decline.
- Saudi Arabia slashed official selling prices (OSPs) amid rising OPEC+ production and weakening demand from China (crude imports down 3.4% YoY).
- U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reiterated the administration’s support for lower oil prices but avoided giving a specific target.
Gold Slips Below $2,900 as Recession Fears Rise
- Gold dropped 0.70%, trading at $2,890, pressured by profit-taking and a stronger U.S. dollar.
- The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts a Q1 2025 contraction of -2.4%, fueling stagflation concerns.
- With U.S. CPI data due Wednesday, traders await inflation signals that could shape the Fed’s next rate move.
Central Bank Moves & FX Outlook
- Bank of Canada (BoC) expected to cut rates by 25bps to 2.75%, citing trade risks & slowing growth.
- BofA sees limited impact on USD/CAD, as markets focus on tariff negotiations & election uncertainty.
- NY Fed inflation expectations edged up to 3.1%, but longer-term expectations remained steady.
Crypto Market Struggles Amid ETF Outflows & Liquidations
- Bitcoin briefly dropped below $80K, before rebounding 3% to $82,200.
- Ethereum struggled near the $2,000 level, weighed down by ETF outflows & weak sentiment.
- Bybit hackers cashed out $300M of stolen funds, adding to BTC selling pressure.
- Total crypto liquidations reached $687.73M in the past 24 hours.
Agriculture & WASDE Report Expectations
- The USDA’s WASDE report (due Tuesday) is expected to show:
- Lower U.S. corn ending stocks (-22M bushels)
- Stable soybean stocks (380M bushels)
- Wheat stock estimates rising slightly (799M bushels)
- Sentiment remains weak, with money managers increasing net short positions in CBOT wheat, corn, and soybeans.
Key Themes to Watch This Week
✅ U.S. CPI Report (Wednesday) – A hot print could delay Fed rate cuts.
✅ Bank of Canada Policy Decision (Wednesday) – Expected 25bps cut.
✅ OPEC & IEA Reports – Oil supply outlook & demand risks.
✅ Stock Market Recovery or Further Downside? – Can buyers step in?
✅ Crypto Stability After Major Liquidations – Will BTC hold $80K?
📌 Final Take:
The markets are at a crossroads—equities are teetering on key technical levels, oil remains under pressure, and crypto is facing serious volatility. The next big catalysts? Inflation data and central bank policy signals.
