Daily Market Roundup

North America News

Markets Rebound as Mega-Caps Lead the Charge

Wall Street started the week on a strong note, with major indices bouncing back from Friday’s declines in a broad-based rally. The Nasdaq surged 1.0%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, and the Dow Jones added 0.4%, closing near session highs.

📈 Closing Numbers:

• Dow Jones: +167.01 points (+0.38%) to 44,469.33
• Nasdaq Composite: +190.87 points (+0.97%) to 19,796.17
• S&P 500: +40.45 points (+0.67%) to 6,066.44

Mega-Cap Tech & Strong Earnings Fuel Gains

• Nvidia (+2.9%), Microsoft (+0.6%), and Amazon (+1.7%) helped lift the market, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) up 1.0%.
• McDonald’s (+4.8%), Rockwell Automation (+12.7%), and Monday.com (+26.5%) posted strong earnings, boosting investor confidence.

Steel & Aluminum Stocks Rally Despite Tariffs

• Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum had little impact on overall sentiment. Instead, metal-related stocks surged, with Nucor (+5.6%) and Alcoa (+2.2%) seeing gains.

Stable Inflation Expectations & Mixed Treasuries

• The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed inflation expectations holding at 3.0%, with five-year projections ticking up 0.3%.
• Bond yields remained steady, with the 10-year Treasury yield settling at 4.49%.

Earnings Pick Up Tomorrow

While earnings news was light today, Tuesday’s reports will feature major names, including:

• Humana (HUM)
• Coca-Cola (KO)
• AutoNation (AN)
• DuPont (DD)

📊 Year-to-Date Performance:

• Dow Jones: +4.5% YTD
• S&P 500: +3.1% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +2.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: +2.6% YTD

With earnings season in full swing and tariff impacts unfolding, investors will keep a close eye on corporate guidance and upcoming Fed commentary for further market direction.

NY Fed Jan. survey of consumer expectations shows one year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% last

• New York Fed survey of consumer expectations for January 2024

• Prior month one year inflation expectations 3.0%
• one year and three year inflation expectations remain unchanged at 3.0%
• five year inflation expectations 3% up from 2.7% prior month
• January saw larger expected rise for food, gas, rent, college, medical prices.
• January expected spending levels decline to lowest level since January 2021.
• Labor market expectations were mixed
• Perceptions of access to credit improved in January.
• Household lower perception of financial situation in January

Inflation Expectations:

• Unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3-year horizons.
• Increased to 3.0% (+0.3 ppt) for the 5-year horizon.

Commodity Price Expectations (Year-Ahead):

• Gas: +2.6% (+0.6 ppt).
• Food: +4.6% (+0.6 ppt).
• Medical care: +6.8% (+1.0 ppt).
• College costs: +5.9% (+0.2 ppt).
• Rent: +6.0% (+0.5 ppt).

Job Market Expectations:

• Probability of losing one’s job: Increased to 14.2% (+2.3 ppt).
• Probability of finding a job within 3 months: Increased to 51.5% (+1.3 ppt).

Household Spending Expectations:

• Declined to 4.4% (-0.4 ppt), the lowest since January 2021.

More Details on Prices:

• Median home price growth expectations rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. This increase was driven by respondents in the West census region. This series has been moving in a narrow range between 3.0% and 3.3% since August 2023.
• Year-ahead commodity price expectations rose across the board, increasing by 0.6 percentage point for the price of gas to 2.6%, 0.6 percentage point for the price of food to 4.6%, 1.0 percentage point for the cost of medical care to 6.8%, 0.2 percentage point for the cost of college to 5.9%, and 0.5 percentage point for rent to 6.0%.

More details on Employment

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% in January. This series has been moving within a narrow range between 2.7% and 3.0% since January 2024.
• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 34.0%, the measure’s lowest reading since July 2021. The decline was driven by respondents with no college degree, those with an annual income below $100,000, and those above age 40.

More details on Household

• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased by 0.9 percentage point to 13.3%. This series remains above its 12-month trailing average of 13.0%.
• The median expected year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.2%, but remains well below its 12-month trailing average of 3.9%.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 0.1 percentage point to 6.0%. This reading is well below the series 12-month trailing average of 8.6%.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 25.0%.
• Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated in January, with the net share of households reporting a worse versus better situation compared to a year ago rising. Similarly, year-ahead expectations about households’ financial situations also deteriorated in January.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 0.5 percentage point to 40.3%.

US employment trends for January 108.35 versus 109.23 last month

• US employment transfer January
• prior month 109.70 revised to 109.23
• Employment trends for January 108.35

Elon Musk tries to buy OpenAI – report

• A consortium led by Elon Musk bids $97.4 billion

Here’s a new report from the WSJ:

A consortium of investors led by Elon Musk is offering $97.4 billion to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI, upping the stakes in his battle with Sam Altman over the company behind ChatGPT.

Musk’s attorney, Marc Toberoff, said he submitted the bid to OpenAI’s board of directors Monday.

White House advisor Hassett on CNBC: Trump will stop waivers on steel

White House advisor Hassett on CNBC says:

• Trump will stop waivers and steel at a time of his own choosing
• India has enormously high tariff rates

Politico report indicates that Republican deficit hawks are beginning to dig in

• It’s a big week in Congress as Republicans look for a consensus that will be tough to find

Politco reports on the latest state of play as Republicans try to use a razor-thin majority in the House to cobble together a plan to deliver on Trump’s tax agenda.

They highlight a fight between the bill writers and budget hawks led by Chip Roy.

The report says that the latest costing on promises they’re hoping to deliver is $5.5 trillion over 10 years after spending cuts.

The number that lawmakers had tentatively settled on last Thursday — around $4.7 trillion — would make it virtually impossible to implement anything above an extension of the expiring tax cuts.

Finally, the report also said the “many” Republicans are skeptical of using tariffs to pay for tax cuts, which would be good news for non-USD currencies.

Trump: I will announce reciprocal tariffs on Tues or Wed

• There’s usually a process for this but we’ll see

• Reciprocal tariffs will go into effect almost immediately
• Trump says he will announce 25% steel and aluminum tariffs on Monday
• Steel and aluminum tariffs to apply to all countries
• Nippon Steel can’t have a majority stake in US Steel

Commodities News

Gold Soars to Record Highs Past $2,900 Amid New US Tariffs on Metals

Gold surged to an all-time high of $2,911 on Monday as US President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, stoking fears of a global economic slowdown and rising inflation. The yellow metal currently trades at $2,905, with bulls eyeing the $3,000 level.

Market Drivers: Why Gold is Rallying

• Trump’s trade policies have intensified safe-haven demand as investors hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Central banks continue accumulating gold, with purchases up 54% YoY to 333 tons after Trump’s re-election, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
• US Treasury yields remain steady, limiting downside pressure on gold despite a stronger US dollar.

Fed Policy & Economic Data in Focus

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony before Congress could impact gold’s trajectory if his comments signal hawkish policy.
• Inflation expectations remain elevated, with the New York Fed Survey indicating consumers expect 3% inflation over the next five years.
• Mixed US employment data suggests the Fed may hold off on rate cuts, with money markets pricing in 39 basis points of easing in 2025.

Gold’s Technical Outlook

• Resistance: $2,920 | $2,950 | $3,000
• Support: $2,875 | $2,850 | $2,825

Gold’s safe-haven demand remains strong, but Fed policy and macroeconomic shifts will determine whether $3,000 is the next stop.

Silver Surges Near $32.30 as Trump Tariffs Trigger Safe-Haven Demand

Silver rallied to $32.30 in Monday’s European session, as investors turned risk-averse following Trump’s 25% tariff announcement on metals.

Key Factors Behind Silver’s Strength

• Heightened global trade tensions boosted demand for precious metals, reinforcing silver’s safe-haven appeal.
• The US dollar initially strengthened on tariff news but later erased gains, allowing silver to extend its rally.
• Technical momentum remains bullish, with silver outperforming alongside gold.

Fed Testimony & Interest Rate Outlook

• Investors await Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony for insights into future rate policy.
• The Fed is expected to keep rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range for now, but traders will be watching for any hints of easing.

Silver’s Technical Outlook

• Resistance: $32.50 | $33.00 | $33.50
• Support: $31.85 | $31.50 | $31.00

With uncertainty surrounding global trade and Fed policy, silver remains well-positioned for further gains in the near term.

Trump plans 25% tariffs on all imports of Steel and Aluminium – ING

LME Auminium was steady this morning after Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all imports of Steel and Aluminium into the US. The US imports significant volumes of Aluminium and Steel from Canada, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. 

US president imposes tariffs on imported Aluminium and Steel

“In 2023, net US Aluminium imports were 44% of its total consumption, with Canada the biggest supplier, accounting for 56% of imports. Meanwhile, around 30% of Steel imports into the US arrived from Canada. Only last week, Trump delayed plans to hit Canada and Mexico with general import duties of 25%.”

“With Trump back in the White House, uncertainty and unpredictability are running high. Prolonged trade conflict would slow global growth and hurt demand for industrial metals. In 2018, the US president imposed a 10% duty on imported Aluminium and a 25% tariff on imported Steel to promote domestic metal production.”

“The duties on Canada and Mexico were lifted a year later after a new free trade agreement between the two countries and the US.”

Oil prices go up after Trump announces new plans – ING

In crude oil, prices rose in the early trading session today, with ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI moving above $75/bbl and $71/bbl respectively, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Oil market sees a second straight session of gains

“The oil market saw a second straight session of gains as the US president announced more tariffs on Sunday. Oil prices are also receiving short-term support as the US imposed sanctions on an international network facilitating the shipment of Iranian crude to China last week.”

“Meanwhile, drilling activity in the US recovered marginally over the last week. The latest rig data from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active US oil rigs increased by one over the week to 480 as of 7 February 2025. However, despite the weekly increase, the oil rig count is still down by 19 compared to this time last year. The total rig count (oil and gas combined) stood at 586 over the reporting week, up from 582 a week earlier.”

“The recent positioning data shows that speculators decreased their net long in ICE Brent by 17,981 lots over the last reporting week to 289,723 lots as of last Tuesday. This was the first weekly decline reported since 31 December 2024. The move was predominantly driven by gross longs falling by 24,308 lots to 372,368 lots. For NYMEX WTI, speculators sold 51,252 lots for a second week straight over the reporting week, leaving them with a net long of 140,540 lots – the lowest since the week ending 10 December 2024.”

Europe News

European indices start the week with gains

• UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.77% leading the way

The major European indices are starting the week with gains across the board. The UK FTSE 100 led the charge with a gain of 0.77%. Spain’s Ibex was the laggard with a rise of 0.16%.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +0.57%
• France’s CAC +0.42%
• UK’s FTSE 100 +0.77%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.16%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.50%

Little on the agenda in Europe to start the new week

• Trump tariffs once again overshadow the mood but we do have big US data coming up later in the week

Eurozone February Sentix investor confidence -12.7 vs -16.3 expected

• Latest data released by Sentix – 10 February 2025
• Prior -17.7

SNB total sight deposits w.e. 7 February CHF 438.1 bn vs CHF 441.9 bn prior

• Latest data released by the SNB – 10 February 2025
• Domestic sight deposits CHF 428.1 bn vs CHF 432.9 bn prior

ECB’s Lagarde: The conditions for a recovery remain in place

• ECBs Lagarde is speaking

• The conditions for recovery remain in place
• Inflation is a set to return to our 2% medium-term target in the course of this year, with risks on both the upside and the downside
• The ECB is not pre-committed to a particular rate path .
• Frequency of shocks likely to remain high in the future

ECB’s de Guindos: It is very important to avoid a trade war

• Remarks by ECB vice president, Luis de Guindos

• We need a prudent and intelligent approach regarding latest tariffs announcement
• Need to keep a clear head
• Our analysis on tariffs is that it leads to impact on supply
• The impact on inflation is less clear
• Have to take into account all factors on monetary policy

EU is ready to push the trigger in response to Trump, says French foreign minister

• Remarks by French foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot

• This is already what Trump did in 2018 and we responded
• So, we will again respond
• Ready to push the trigger when the time has come and now it has
• It is in nobody’s interest to start a commercial war with the EU

Germany’s Scholz says the EU can act “in an hour” on tariffs

• German Chancellor Scholz

Was asked if the EU is prepared for possible US tariffs and said “yes, we can act in an hour.” He was asked about tariffs because Trump said something about reciprocal tariffs coming early this week. 

Asia-Pacific & World News

China says will place greater emphasis on boosting consumption

• Remarks from Beijing after a meeting among China’s Cabinet members

• To increases residents’ income, promote reasonable wage growth
• To increases support for consumer goods trade-in program
• Will better meet housing consumption needs, support new forms of consumption
• To introduce more practical and effective measures to stabilise foreign investment

China Consumer Price inflation picked up in January, accelerated faster than expected

• China January CPI 0.5% y/y (expected 0.4%, prior 0.1%) and PPI -2.3% y/y (expected -2.1%, prior -2.3%)

China January CPI 0.5% y/y, highest level in five months

• expected 0.4%, prior 0.1%
• core was 0.6% y/y, from 0.4% in December
• the m/m was 0.7% (expected 0.8%, prior 0.0%)

PPI -2.3% y/y, deflation continued

expected -2.1%, prior -2.3%

China’s consumer inflation accelerated in January, reaching its highest level in five months, while producer price deflation continued, reflecting mixed consumer spending during the Lunar New Year. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.5% year-on-year, up from December’s 0.1% increase and exceeding market expectations of 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, also edged up to 0.6% from 0.4%.

The rise in CPI was largely driven by seasonal factors, as the earlier timing of the Lunar New Year spurred demand for travel and entertainment. Airfare prices increased by 8.9%, tourism inflation reached 7.0%, and movie and performance ticket prices surged 11.0%. However, broader consumer spending remained subdued, with per capita holiday spending rising just 1.2% from the previous year—well below the 9.4% growth seen in 2024.

Despite this uptick in inflation, deflationary pressures persist. The producer price index (PPI) fell 2.3% in January, the same as in December and exceeding the expected 2.1% decline. This prolonged factory-gate deflation signals weak demand and ongoing challenges for manufacturers.

For 2024 as a whole, CPI rose just 0.2%, continuing a 13-year trend of missing the government’s inflation target of around 3%. Looking ahead, Chinese provinces have set 2025 economic growth targets with inflation projections below 3%, indicating expectations of continued price pressures.

Meanwhile, economic headwinds persist. China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in January, and services activity weakened, increasing calls for additional stimulus. Policymakers face added pressure as fresh tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump threaten exports—one of the few bright spots in the economy last year.

While Beijing is likely to maintain its 2025 growth target at around 5%, economists warn that without stronger domestic demand, deflationary risks may remain a significant challenge for the world’s second-largest economy.

China may target US tech firms as a trade war strategy

• The WSJ on China in the tariff battle

Chinese officials are building a list of U.S. technology companies that can be targeted with antitrust probes and other tools, the WSJ reports.

It says the strategy is to “collect as many cards” to play as possible in negotiations and highlights Apple, Broadcom and Synopsys.

PBOC expected to set yuan reference rate at 7.305

• Reuters estimate

China tariffs on the US have gone into effect

• We are past the deadline

There was some hope last week that the US and China would negotiate a way to avoid tariffs when there were reports about a phone call between the two. That call was evidently called off, though there is still hope the call will occur. The US additional tariff on China went into effect last week, though some of the de minimis exemption was later delayed. China’s tariff went into effect at midnight local time.

Russia throws cold water on peace talks

• Russian deputy foreign minister says no satisfactory proposals to start talks on Ukraine

Lately there has been some buzz that Russia and Ukraine were headed towards peace talks. There was some detail to go with the talk too as Easter was floated as a deadline and JD Vance is supposedly headed to Germany this week to lay out some details of the US proposal.

But Russia has been making consistent gains for many months and today is throwing cold water on talks.

Russian deputy foreign minister Galuzin said there are no satisfactory proposals to start talks on Ukraine, according to RIA. He said that statements from the west and Ukraine are “nothing but buzz building”.

Japan December current account ¥1077 billion vs ¥1362 billion expected

• Japan December current account data
• Prior was +¥3352.5 billion

Crypto Market Pulse

Bitcoin Gains Momentum on Tariff Talks

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced higher on Monday, capitalizing on safe-haven demand as new tariff announcements unsettled global markets.

Key Levels & Technical Setup

• BTC currently trades between key moving averages:
  • 100DMA (95,210) provides initial support.
  • 55DMA (98,865) acts as resistance, guarding the psychological $100K barrier.
• Market Sentiment:
  • Tariff concerns fueled a bullish push, but the rally remains muted.
  • Investors await Trump’s promised crypto market regulations, which could be a major catalyst for BTC’s next move.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Outlook

• Above $90K, BTC remains bullishly aligned, with a break past $100K strengthening the case for new all-time highs above $110K.
• Support Levels: 95,210 | 93,432 | 91,054 | 90,000
• Resistance Levels: 98,865 | 100,000 | 100,520 | 102,589

Bitcoin’s long-term structure remains bullish, but traders will watch regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts for near-term direction.

SUI Eyes 20% Gains Amid TVL Growth

SUI, the native token of the Layer 1 blockchain, surged 8% on Monday, breaking above the $3.00 level as total value locked (TVL) climbed 5% to $1.43 billion. This rebound marks an attempted breakout from its downtrend since January 6, positioning the token for double-digit gains.

Key Catalysts Driving SUI’s Rally

• TVL Growth: SUI’s TVL has recovered from its January 7 peak of $2.065 billion, signaling renewed investor confidence.
• Bullish On-Chain Metrics:
  • Funding rates turned positive across derivatives exchanges, indicating growing optimism.
  • Open interest surged to $352.55 million, reflecting increased trading activity.

With technical indicators aligning with on-chain trends, SUI is primed for further upside, provided market sentiment remains supportive.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

US Stocks Rebound, Led by Mega-Caps & Strong Earnings

• Nasdaq (+1.0%), S&P 500 (+0.7%), Dow Jones (+0.4%) closed higher, bouncing back from last week’s losses.
• Tech giants like Nvidia (+2.9%), Microsoft (+0.6%), and Amazon (+1.7%) led the rally.
• Strong earnings from McDonald’s (+4.8%), Rockwell Automation (+12.7%), and Monday.com (+26.5%) boosted sentiment.
• Upcoming earnings include Coca-Cola, Humana, AutoNation, and DuPont on Tuesday.

Gold Surges to Record Highs Above $2,900 on Tariff Fears

• Gold hit an all-time high of $2,911, fueled by Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
• Central banks increased gold purchases by 54% YoY, supporting prices.
• Traders await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for hints on future rate policy.

Bitcoin Bounces Amid Tariff Uncertainty & Regulatory Expectations

• BTC climbed toward $100K, benefiting from safe-haven demand after Trump’s tariff announcement.
• Regulatory clarity from Trump’s administration remains a key factor for future price action.
• FTX creditor repayments starting Feb 18 could introduce market volatility.

Ethereum Faces Selling Pressure as Whales Reduce Holdings

• Vitalik Buterin denied quitting the Ethereum Foundation, despite community concerns.
• Whale holdings of $10M+ wallets dropped by 17% last week, signaling reduced confidence in ETH’s short-term recovery.

Silver Rallies Near $32.30 as Safe-Haven Demand Grows

• Trump’s tariff threats renewed fears of a global trade war, lifting silver alongside gold.
• Fed testimony and rate outlook will be key drivers for silver’s next move.

Oil Prices Climb Amid Tariffs & US Sanctions on Iran

• Brent crude topped $75/bbl, WTI moved above $71/bbl, marking a second straight session of gains.
• US imposed sanctions on Iranian crude shipments to China, adding to supply concerns.
• Baker Hughes data showed a modest recovery in US drilling activity, but rig counts remain lower YoY.

European Gas Prices Hit Two-Year High on Storage Concerns

• Colder weather and lower stockpiles pushed European gas prices up 4%, reaching levels last seen in February 2023.
• Storage levels are at 49% capacity, significantly lower than 67% this time last year.

Trump’s Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Spark Trade War Concerns

• 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports could slow global growth and weaken demand for industrial metals.
• Canada supplies 56% of US aluminum imports & 30% of steel imports, making it a key trading partner impacted by the tariffs.
• LME aluminum remained steady, but further trade uncertainty could drive volatility in metals markets.

Final Thoughts:
Markets remain highly reactive to geopolitical and macroeconomic shifts, with tariff policies, Fed signals, and corporate earnings driving volatility. Safe-haven assets like gold and silver are thriving, while crypto and equities remain sensitive to regulatory and trade developments.