Daily Market Roundup

North America News

US Stock Markets Wrap Up Flat; Nasdaq Inches Higher, Dow Barely Moves

Wall Street ended the day with barely any movement across major indices. The Nasdaq led with a modest gain, while the S&P and Dow showed minimal change.

• Nasdaq: +61.28 points (+0.31%) to 19,591.24
• S&P 500: +5.52 points (+0.09%) to 6,005.88
• Dow Jones: -1.11 points (-0.00%) to 42,761.76

Apple shares slipped $2.47 (-1.21%) to $201.45 after an underwhelming WWDC 2025, with critics citing a lack of AI innovation. Tesla, however, closed strong. After dipping as low as $281.85 earlier in the day, shares reversed sharply, climbing $13.44 to end at $309.83, fueled by Trump’s upbeat remarks on Musk’s Starlink project despite their recent public spat.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Holds Firm at 3.8% for Q2

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model continues to project 3.8% growth for Q2, unchanged from the June 5 estimate.

Updates from the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics nudged real personal consumption growth slightly down to 2.5%, while investment growth improved from -2.2% to -1.9%, offsetting the dip.

In their own words:

“After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent was partly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from -2.2 percent to -1.9 percent.”

US Consumers See Inflation Cooling, Job Market Improving

The New York Fed’s May survey shows declining inflation expectations: one-year-ahead inflation fell to 3.2% from 3.6%, three-year ahead dipped to 3.0%, and five-year projections eased to 2.6%.

Expectations for home price gains also dropped to 3.0%, while food price inflation hit 5.5%, the highest since October 2023. Confidence in job prospects improved, and fewer respondents expected to miss debt payments.

US Employment Trend Index Slips to 107.49

The US employment trend index slipped to 107.49 in May, dropping from a revised 108.00 in April. That revision pushed the prior figure slightly higher than initially reported (107.57).

The index is now at its lowest point since May 2021, when it touched 107.40—another sign of a cooling labor market.

According to the Conference Board:

ETI is composed of 8 indicators:

1. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance
   • Rose to 235,000 in May (highest since July 2024). Weaker
2. Percentage of Respondents Who Say Jobs Are Hard to Get
   • Rose to 18.6%, matching 2024 highs. Weaker
3. Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry
   • Fell by 20,200 in May; down 41,600 YTD. Weaker
4. Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (Involuntary)
   • Declined to 17%, still above 2024 average
5. Job Openings
   • Rose in April, but expected to fall in May (per Help-Wanted-OnLine data). Stronger
6. Industrial Production
   • Not specifically mentioned for May
7. Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales
   • Not discussed in this release
8. Ratio of Involuntary Part-Time to All Part-Time Workers
   • Embedded in point 4 above

Components dragging the index lower in May:

• Jobs hard to get (consumer sentiment)
• Temporary-help employment
• Jobless claims
• Job openings

Despite those weaknesses, the overall labor market remains resilient, with high employment and strong wage growth helping cushion against emerging tariff-related headwinds

On Friday the US employment data painted a mixed yet generally stable picture for labor market conditions:

Headline data showed an increase of 139,000 nonfarm payrolls, slightly exceeding consensus forecasts and marking a modest cooling from earlier readings—Tuesday’s March and April gains were revised down by a total of 95,000 jobs. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, but this reflected a drop in labor force participation, with 625,000 individuals exiting the workforce.

Sector dynamics revealed that job creation was concentrated in health care (+62K), leisure & hospitality (+48K), and social assistance (+16K), while federal government jobs declined sharply (–22K) and industries such as manufacturing and temporary help showed little change . Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m, translating to a 3.9% year-over-year gain, underscoring continued wage strength

US Wholesale Inventories Show Modest Bump in April

April’s wholesale inventories in the US ticked up by 0.2%, slightly ahead of the flat reading economists expected. The prior figure was unchanged at 0.0%.

Sales were up just 0.1%, down from a revised 0.8% the month before. Though this isn’t headline data, it contributes to GDP estimates and should modestly lift Q2 growth forecasts.

Trump Eases Export Rules in Exchange for China’s Rare Earths

The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump has granted US negotiators flexibility to roll back tech-related export controls on China as a trade-off for rare earth mineral access.

Products under the easing include jet engines and parts, chip design software, and ethane—key to manufacturing plastics. While not publicly confirmed, these moves aim to secure a quick trade breakthrough.

NEC’s Hassett called the talks “a short meeting with a big strong handshake,” hinting that an agreement could be imminent.

Citigroup Expects 75 bps in Fed Rate Cuts This Year

Citigroup is forecasting a total of 75 basis points in Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, a much more aggressive stance than current market expectations.

The bank sees cuts coming in September, October, and December, each by 25 bps. Their view is based on recent US jobs data. Looking into 2026, they anticipate additional cuts in January and March.

US Firms Push Back Against Tariffs on Vietnamese Goods

American businesses with operations in Vietnam are urging Washington to hold off on new tariffs. According to a Financial Times report, the American Chamber of Commerce in Hanoi has asked the US government to recognize Vietnam’s role in diversifying supply chains.

They argue that trade deficits with Vietnam are a sign of success, not failure, and that new tariffs would contradict US policy goals in the Indo-Pacific region.

The full report by the FT can be found here (might be gated).

Hassett says ‘absolutely’ expecting progress from trade talks with China today

• Remarks by US National Economic Council director, Kevin Hassett

• US seeks handshake on rare earths agreement from China in London
• US expects export controls will be eased and rare earths will be released in volume
• Meeting today is to be a short one but it will bear results

Canada to Hit NATO Defence Spending Target This Year

Prime Minister Carney is expected to announce a major hike in Canada’s defense budget, according to sources cited by The Globe and Mail.

Spending will hit the NATO target of 2% of GDP this fiscal year—earlier than any previous timeline. It will also mark the largest defense funding increase since World War II.

Commodities News

US Crude Oil Pushes Higher, Reclaims Key Level from 2021 Advance

Crude oil prices closed the day at $65.29, up $0.71 or 1.10%. The session marked a technical turning point, as prices moved back above the crucial $64.71 level—representing the 50% retracement of the 2021–2022 rally.

• Session High: $65.39
• Session Low: $64.22

This breakout resets the short-term bullish tone. Traders now eye the 100-day moving average at $66.28 as the next target. That level hasn’t been tested since April 2. If bulls can clear it, momentum could accelerate.

On the flip side, failure to stay above $64.71 would undermine the breakout, with support between $64.14 and $63.57 becoming the next line of defense.

Silver Climbs to 13-Year Highs as Bulls Ride Rate Cut Hopes, Dollar Weakness

Silver surged again Monday, touching levels not seen since 2012 and closing in on $37 per ounce. The white metal’s momentum is being driven by several overlapping tailwinds: a weakening US dollar, hopes for Fed rate cuts, and anticipation of a US-China trade agreement.

Silver’s industrial demand continues to rise, especially from green energy tech. However, total global demand slipped last year, and investors are betting that broader recovery is underway.

Key driver: The US Dollar Index remains under pressure near multi-year lows. Combined with dovish policy expectations, this environment is ideal for silver.

The price is now up nearly 32% from April’s lows around $28.00. It would take a massive 40% decline to push prices below the 200-day EMA at $26.45—highlighting how far silver has run and how strong the trend remains.

Brent Finds Support, Targets $68.70 With Breakout Potential

Brent crude has formed a higher low around $63, signaling that downward pressure may be easing. The price has cleared its 50-day moving average, and Société Générale sees the next target at $68.70. A move above that could set the stage for a rally toward $71.30–$72.00.

The MACD is turning positive, and price structure suggests a rebound is underway. However, $63 remains a crucial near-term support level to keep the bullish case alive.

US-China Trade Talks Kick Off in London With Rare Earths on the Table

According to Reuters, trade negotiations between US and Chinese officials are underway in London, with rare earth mineral access as a top priority. US National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said on CNBC he expects a handshake deal soon, possibly leading to the release of rare earths.

China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng is also attending, underscoring the high stakes. Talks could stretch into Tuesday, according to Chinese media, signaling an extended dialogue beyond the initial plan.

US Drilling Slows as Speculators Push Oil Higher

Oil prices have surged, with ICE Brent for August settling nearly 5.9% higher last week. Wildfires in Canada and OPEC+ supply plans supported prices, while traders absorbed Friday’s strong US jobs data.

Speculators poured into NYMEX WTI, adding 42,496 long positions—the biggest jump since January. Brent net longs also rose modestly.

US drilling activity, however, continues to contract. Baker Hughes reports a sixth straight week of falling rig counts, down 9 rigs last week to 442. That’s a 41-rig drop in six weeks, raising questions about 2025 output.

European Gas Storage Passes 50%, Still Lags Historic Norms

Europe’s natural gas storage levels have passed the 50% mark, but they remain well behind both last year and the five-year average, Société Générale reports.

The gap highlights Europe’s vulnerability, especially with reduced Norwegian pipeline flows due to maintenance and outages. LNG imports will be crucial to bridge the shortfall, but competition with Asia could tighten supply further.

Oil Aims for $72 as Demand Outlook Takes the Driver’s Seat

Crude oil is edging toward the $72 price level, as markets shift their focus from supply worries to demand optimism. Recent bearish supply news—like Saudi Arabia pushing OPEC+ for more output—has failed to weigh on prices.

Instead, traders are banking on rising demand, fueled by global easing cycles, US tax policies, and a thaw in trade tensions. The path of least resistance for oil now appears upward.

Europe News

ECB’s Kažimír : I think we’re nearly done with, if not already at the end of easing cycle

• Remarks by ECB policymaker, Peter Kažimír

• I see clear downside risks to growth
• But it would be a mistake to neglect upside risks to inflation
• We need to keep all options open
• Data through the summer will indicate whether fine-tuning will be needed

BOE’s Greene: The disinflationary process is still ongoing

• Comments from MPC Megan Greene

• Most of the near-term hump in inflation is due to one-off factors
• We expect inflation to continue to come down to target over medium term
• Our view is that we can look through it but of course that’s a big risk
• There is a risk people won’t consume even as rates come down
• Trade fragmentation should be disinflationary for the UK
• Going forward we could see policy divergence

ECB’s Nagel: I believe that we can now take the time to look at the situation

• Comments from Nagel on German radio on the weekend

• We are no longer restrictive
• I believe that we can now take the time to look at the situation first
• We now have maximum flexibility

Asia-Pacific & World News

Boeing Delivers New Plane to China for First Time Since Trade War

Boeing has resumed plane deliveries to China, marking a key moment in easing US-China trade tensions. A new Boeing 737 MAX landed in China today—the first since deliveries were halted in April amid worsening trade relations.

Last month, Boeing confirmed it would restart shipments in June after a 90-day rollback of tariffs by both sides. Reuters reports

China Quiet on Upcoming US Meeting in London

The Chinese foreign ministry is staying tight-lipped about the upcoming US-China talks in London. At a press conference, spokesperson Lin Jian dodged questions about the timing and location of the meeting.

With markets watching closely, the lack of detail adds to uncertainty ahead of what could be a pivotal week for trade relations.

Chinese Stocks Surge on US Trade Optimism

Chinese markets are rallying, fueled by growing optimism around US-China trade discussions. The Hang Seng Index jumped 1.4%, marking its highest level since March.

Hopes are high ahead of a scheduled meeting between US and Chinese trade officials in London. Talks are expected to run through the week, and President Trump has expressed confidence in a positive outcome, stating, “The meeting should go very well.”

China’s May Inflation Remains Negative, PPI Drop Steepens

Consumer prices in China slipped again in May, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, slightly better than the expected -0.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI matched forecasts with a -0.2% drop. Meanwhile, factory gate prices fell more sharply than projected, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) plunging 3.3% versus expectations of a 3.2% fall.

China’s Trade Surplus Widens, but Exports to US Plummet

China posted a larger-than-expected trade surplus in May, hitting $103.2 billion, ahead of the $101.3 billion forecast and up from April’s $96.1 billion. Dollar-denominated exports rose 4.8% year-over-year, slightly missing the 5% estimate, while imports shrank 3.4%, a steeper drop than the -0.9% expected. In yuan terms, exports were up 6.3% and imports down 2.1%.

However, exports to the US collapsed 34.5% from a year earlier—worse than April’s 21% drop. The trade surplus with the US narrowed to $18.01 billion, down from $20.46 billion a month earlier.

PBOC sets yuan mid-point at 7.1855 vs 7.1947 at last close

• Today’s yuan rate setting

New Zealand Manufacturing Bounces Back in Q1

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector rebounded in the first quarter of 2025, with sales rising 2.4% following a 1.1% gain in Q4. This marks a clear turnaround from the 1.2% contraction recorded in Q3.

The recovery was largely driven by higher output in dairy and meat products, which climbed 4.1%.

Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey Ticks Higher in May

The mood among Japanese economy watchers improved slightly in May. The Cabinet Office reported a rise in the diffusion index to 44.4 from April’s 42.6.

The uptick came largely from stronger household demand and a pickup in retail activity. Business sentiment, however, weakened due to softer conditions in manufacturing. The outlook index also improved to 44.8, up from 42.7.

Japan’s Current Account Drops Sharply in April

Japan’s current account surplus fell short of forecasts in April, coming in at ¥2.258 trillion versus expectations of ¥2.563 trillion. That’s also a sharp decline from March’s ¥3.678 trillion.

After seasonal adjustments, the surplus stood at ¥2.306 trillion, down from ¥2.723 trillion. Goods trade slipped into the red, with a deficit of ¥32.7 billion, compared to a surplus of ¥516 billion the previous month.

Japan’s Q1 GDP Revised Upward, Avoids Contraction

Japan’s economy performed slightly better than initially thought in the first quarter. Revised figures show GDP contracted by just 0.2% annualized, compared to the initial estimate of -0.7%. On a quarterly basis, growth was flat, an improvement from the earlier -0.2% figure and down from a 0.6% gain in Q4.

Private consumption ticked up 0.1%, a small improvement from the preliminary flat reading. Business investment grew 1.1% year-on-year, although that’s down from the earlier 1.4% figure.

Japan is moving into a phase where rising interest rates is a trend – Ishiba

• Remarks by Japan prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba

• Japan has experienced low interest rates for a very long period
• So, some quarters of the public don’t know what it is like for interest rates to rise
• When interest rates rise, government’s debt-financing costs will increase; weigh on spending
• Government must ensure public, market trust in Japan’s finances is maintained

Japan’s Ruling Party Floats Cash Handouts Ahead of Election

Japan’s ruling party is considering blanket cash payouts to citizens as part of its pitch for the upcoming Upper House election in July, according to Mainichi Newspaper.

After shelving a prior handout plan and rejecting a consumption tax cut, party leaders are searching for a new centerpiece policy. A source said the handout could exceed ¥20,000 per person, adding that skipping an income limit would speed up implementation.

Crypto Market Pulse

$224M Flows Into Crypto Funds as Ethereum ETFs Surge, IBIT Sets Record

Digital asset investment products pulled in $224 million last week, driven largely by Ethereum ETFs which attracted $296.4 million in fresh capital. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs suffered $56.5 million in outflows amid political noise and policy uncertainty.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) hit a milestone, surpassing $70 billion in assets—making it the fastest ETF to ever reach that level in just 341 trading days, according to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas. That’s five times quicker than the previous record holder, GLD.

Meanwhile, Strategy added 1,045 BTC to its treasury, spending $110.2 million at an average price of $105,426. Its total BTC stash now stands at 582,000 coins, purchased at an average of $70,086 each. The firm also launched a $1 billion expansion of its preferred stock program.

Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin is back above $108,000, buoyed by improving sentiment tied to US-China trade negotiations in London.

XRP Holds Steady as Ripple Targets Japan’s Web3 Boom

XRP is holding ground after bouncing off the $2.05 support last week, currently trading around $2.26. Bulls are aiming for a fourth straight session of gains as trade optimism and Ripple’s Asia expansion fuel sentiment.

Ripple has announced a new push into Japan via a partnership with the Web3 Salon project, backed by JETRO and the Asia Web3 Alliance. The initiative will offer up to $200,000 per startup over the next year under Ripple’s XRPL Japan and Korea Fund—part of its broader $1 billion XRP commitment.

The goal: support projects building on the XRP Ledger in DeFi, tokenization, and digital payments.

Japan’s regulatory clarity makes it a top-tier crypto hub, but startups often face red tape. Ripple hopes its support can ease entry and speed up development.

Meanwhile, Open Interest in XRP futures is on the rise, hitting $4.1 billion—a sign of strengthening market confidence in XRP’s price trajectory.

Altcoins Rally as US-China Talks Lift Crypto Market Mood

SPX6900, Internet Computer (ICP), and AB are leading a bullish charge among altcoins on Monday. Bitcoin’s recent recovery above $105,000 has lifted the broader crypto sentiment ahead of the second round of US-China trade talks.

SPX is nearing its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.28 after a 22% rally in the past week. RSI near 70 suggests waning momentum, raising caution about a potential reversal.

ICP, meanwhile, is close to breaking out of a symmetrical triangle. A daily close above $6.13 could unlock a run to $7.22. MACD indicators are supportive of a bullish breakout.

Solana Holds $150, Eyes Push to $180 as Bulls Regain Momentum

Solana (SOL) continues its recovery, bouncing over 1.5% on Monday and climbing past the key $150 level. After a four-day streak of gains, SOL is positioned for a run toward $180, especially if it can close above $157—last week’s high.

Technical signals are turning bullish: RSI is rebounding from oversold territory, and the MACD is on the verge of a crossover. But if SOL fails to hold the $150–$157 zone, a drop back toward $142 or even $105 could follow.

Metaplanet Shares Soar on $5.4B Bitcoin Buy Plan

Metaplanet stock jumped over 12% in early Tokyo trading after the firm unveiled a massive plan to raise $5.4 billion to buy Bitcoin. The stock reached a session high of 1,641 yen, up 22%.

The company now targets 210,000 BTC by 2027, up from its prior 21,000 BTC goal. If successful, it would become the second-largest public holder of Bitcoin after Michael Saylor’s Strategy.

Metaplanet currently owns 8,888 BTC. Its stock is up 24% in the past week and has surged over 1,700% since it first announced a BTC buy in July 2024.

Bitcoin Rebounds Sharply but Faces Major Resistance

Bitcoin has clawed back from last week’s sharp selloff, rallying in a classic V-shaped move. It’s now testing a key resistance zone near the 106,800 mark.

The earlier selloff was triggered by tensions between Musk and Trump and broader fears around Trump’s tax bill. As those tensions eased, Bitcoin and risk assets rebounded.

Still, risks remain: potential failure of Trump’s bill, renewed trade tensions post-July, and a possible spike in inflation that could shift rate expectations. Bulls need a clear breakout to push toward new highs, while bears are likely to step in just above resistance.

The Day’s Takeaway

United States

• Markets Mixed:
  The Nasdaq led with a modest 0.31% gain, closing at 19,591.24, while the S&P added 0.09% to 6,005.88. The Dow was flat, down just 1.11 points.
• Tech Movers:
  Apple dropped 1.21% following a weak WWDC 2025 showing, lacking major AI developments. Tesla rallied late, reversing from $281.85 to close at $309.83, after Trump praised Starlink.
• Wholesale Inventories:
  April data showed a 0.2% increase in inventories, ahead of expectations, which could bump Q2 GDP projections.
• Employment Trends:
  The May Employment Trend Index dipped to 107.49—the lowest since May 2021—signaling possible labor market cooling.
• Inflation Expectations:
  NY Fed’s survey showed declining inflation forecasts: 1-year down to 3.2%, 3-year to 3.0%, and 5-year to 2.6%. Food inflation, however, hit 5.5%, its highest since late 2023.
• GDPNow Holds:
  Atlanta Fed kept Q2 GDP growth at 3.8%, balancing weaker consumption forecasts with better investment data.
• Trade Talks in Motion:
  US and China began negotiations in London, focusing on rare earth minerals. Trump reportedly gave negotiators leeway to ease tech export controls to advance the deal.

Canada

• Defense Spending Milestone:
  PM Carney is expected to announce that Canada will hit NATO’s 2% defense spending target this year, marking the largest such increase since WWII.

Commodities

• Crude Oil:
  US oil futures closed at $65.29, up 1.10%. Prices reclaimed the key 50% retracement level from the 2021–2022 rally, setting sights on the 100-day moving average at $66.28. Support now rests at $64.71.
• Brent Crude:
  Brent formed a higher low at $63, clearing its 50-day moving average. Société Générale sees potential upside toward $68.70 and $72.00.
• Silver:
  Spot silver surged to a 13-year high near $37/oz, driven by a weaker US dollar, Fed rate cut hopes, and rising industrial demand. Prices are up 32% from April lows.
• US Drilling:
  Baker Hughes reported a sixth straight weekly drop in oil rigs, with the count falling to 442—a 41-rig decline over six weeks.
• European Natural Gas:
  Storage crossed 50%, but still trails historical averages. Supply risks persist due to Norwegian outages and heavy LNG competition from Asia.

Europe

• Gas Storage Concerns:
  While EU gas storage is over halfway full, it remains below 5-year and 2023 levels. Société Générale flagged LNG imports as key to meeting summer targets amid limited Norwegian flows.

Asia

• Japan GDP Revision:
  Q1 GDP was revised to -0.2% from -0.7%, with flat q/q growth and a slight boost in private consumption (+0.1%).
• Current Account Shrinks:
  April’s surplus fell to ¥2.26 trillion, below forecast and sharply lower from March’s ¥3.68 trillion. Goods trade turned negative.
• Economy Watchers Index:
  May’s index rose to 44.4, boosted by household and retail activity, but business sentiment softened on weak manufacturing.
• Election Spending Proposal:
  Japan’s ruling party is considering universal cash handouts with no income cap to gain voter support in the July Upper House election.
• Ripple Targets Japan’s Web3 Space:
  Ripple launched a $200K grant initiative for Japanese DeFi and tokenization startups under its XRPL fund.

Rest of the World

• New Zealand Manufacturing Rebounds:
  Q1 sales rose 2.4%, driven by a 4.1% increase in dairy and meat volumes—marking a strong recovery from the prior quarter.

Crypto

• Crypto Fund Inflows:
  Digital asset products saw $224M in net inflows. Ethereum ETFs led with $296.4M, while Bitcoin ETFs lost $56.5M. BlackRock’s IBIT became the fastest ETF to hit $70B AUM.
• Strategy Adds More BTC:
  Strategy bought 1,045 BTC for $110.2M, bringing total holdings to 582,000 BTC. It also launched a $1B expansion of its preferred share program.
• Altcoins Rally:
  SPX, ICP, and AB led gains amid optimism over US-China trade talks. SPX faces resistance near $1.28; ICP nears a breakout from a symmetrical triangle.
• XRP Eyes Japan Growth:
  XRP steadied above $2.25, supported by a new Ripple-backed initiative aimed at Japanese Web3 startups.
• Solana Targets $180:
  SOL climbed above $150, reversing recent losses and aiming for $180 if it can hold above $157 resistance. RSI and MACD indicators suggest bullish potential.