Daily Market Roundup

North America News

U.S. Stocks End Higher as Chip Comments from Trump Offset Tech Weakness

U.S. equities closed in positive territory after a volatile day driven by tech headlines, Fed policy signals, and a late-session surge in semiconductor stocks.

Early losses were triggered by weak performance from Alphabet and Apple. Apple’s VP of Services said April saw a rare decline in browser and search usage, prompting the company to explore AI-powered search—posing a potential threat to Alphabet’s search revenue.

Stocks rebounded briefly after the Fed held rates steady, but Powell’s cautious tone during his press conference pulled sentiment back. The real turnaround came late in the day after reports surfaced that President Trump may scale back chip export restrictions, sending semiconductor stocks sharply higher and dragging the broader market with them.

Final Index Readings:

• Dow Jones: +284.97 (+0.70%) → 41,113.97
• S&P 500: +24.37 (+0.43%) → 5,631.28
• NASDAQ: +48.50 (+0.27%) → 17,738.16
• Russell 2000: +6.47 (+0.33%) → 1,989.66

Notable Movers:

• Apple: -$2.26 (-1.14%) → $196.25 (session low: $193.25)
• Alphabet: -$11.85 (-7.26%) → $151.38 (session low: $147.84)

Fed Holds Rates Steady at 4.25–4.50% in May Decision

As expected, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged in the 4.25%–4.50% range at its May 7 meeting. Key points from the decision:

• Economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace.
• Swings in net exports influenced the latest GDP data.
• Labor market conditions remain healthy.
• The Fed notes rising risks of both higher inflation and rising unemployment.
• The decision was unanimous, with no dissents.

The Fed continues to monitor the data and maintain flexibility in future policy moves.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebound as Borrowers Rush In Despite High Rates

Mortgage activity jumped in the U.S. last week, snapping a four-week slump. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association:

• Overall applications rose by 11.0% (previous: -4.2%)
• Market index: 248.4 vs. 223.7 prior
• Purchase index: 162.8 vs. 146.6
• Refinance index: 721.0 vs. 649.0
• 30-year mortgage rate: 6.84%, slightly down from 6.89%

Despite elevated rates, both homebuyers and refinancers stepped back into the market. The activity suggests pent-up demand and possibly growing expectations that rates could moderate later in the year.

Apple AI Search Plans Hit Google Stock, Weigh on Tech

Apple’s VP of Services confirmed the company is exploring adding AI to search functions in its browser. The announcement spooked investors, pressuring tech stocks.

• NASDAQ: -59 points (-0.33%) to 17,631
• S&P 500: Slipped into the red
• Google (Alphabet): Down $7.61 (-4.5%) to $156.00
• Microsoft: Down $1.00 (-0.25%) to $432.65

Investors likely see Apple’s move as a direct challenge to Google’s search dominance.

Powell Breaks It Down by Sector: Trade, Inflation, Labor, and Policy Outlook

Rate Cuts & Monetary Policy
Powell made clear that the Fed has no set timeline for rate adjustments. While markets continue to bet on cuts later this year, Powell said the FOMC needs more data before acting.

• “We can’t project a clear path now—we’ll reassess in June.”
• The door is open to both scenarios: cutting or holding steady.
• The Fed wants more evidence before moving, citing no urgency: “There is time to wait.”
• Policy remains moderately restrictive and, in Powell’s view, well-positioned.
• White House calls for cuts—including from Trump—“don’t influence our job.”

Tariffs & Trade Uncertainty
Trade disruptions are the wild card. Powell said it’s too early to judge how the evolving tariff policies will affect the economy.

• “We’ve seen little economic impact from tariffs so far—but people are worried.”
• Sustained tariffs could lead to both higher inflation and lower employment.
• Timing and scale of tariff actions will determine if inflation pressure is persistent or fades.
• Fed expects a reversal in Q2 of the import spike caused by tariff front-running.
• Final sales in Q1 were likely inflated by businesses rushing to beat tariffs.

Supply Chains
On supply chains, Powell admitted the Fed’s tools are poorly suited to this type of disruption:

• Monetary policy can only impact demand, not fix logistical bottlenecks.
• The Fed sees its role as indirect—ensuring price stability, not managing ports or inventories.

Consumer Sentiment & Soft Data
Soft data—especially consumer and business surveys—has worsened.

• Powell isn’t dismissing the shift in sentiment. “It’s a real signal.”
• However, the Fed notes that the link between sentiment and actual demand has been weaker in recent years.
• For now, Powell says “it’s an outsized drop in sentiment,” but no clear fallout in spending yet.

Inflation & Price Stability
The inflation picture remains mixed:

• Core inflation is above target, though easing in some services categories.
• Powell said past actions weren’t preemptive—“if anything, a bit late.”
• The Fed aims to keep inflation expectations anchored to avoid unmooring public confidence.
• He reaffirmed: “Without price stability, we can’t maintain a strong labor market.”

Employment & Dual Mandate
For the first time in a while, Powell acknowledged the possibility that the Fed’s two mandates—full employment and price stability—could come into conflict.

• “If inflation and unemployment rise together, we’ll have to weigh the distance from each goal.”
• Said the Fed is thinking ahead to scenarios where tradeoffs must be made.
• Currently, jobless claims remain low, but risks are rising.

Labor Market & Data Dependency
Data will drive every step from here.

• Powell said the Fed will rely on both real-time indicators and forward-looking projections.
• “We’re not in a hurry. The right move is to wait and reassess.”
• So far, the labor market remains firm. No meaningful rise in unemployment has occurred.

Financial Conditions & Policy Legacy
Reflecting on past actions, Powell said:

• The Fed tried to avoid over-tightening when the economy was fragile.
• Past QE was within the Fed’s mandate but could’ve been better explained.
• He acknowledged “uncertainty is extremely elevated,” and downside risks have grown.

General Economic Outlook
In sum:

• Powell believes policy is “in a good place.”
• The U.S. economy is “resilient and in good shape.”
• But uncertainty—especially around trade—is higher than at any point in the last year.
• Until things settle, the Fed will wait.

Powell in Q&A: “Too Early to Say” on Tariffs, Cuts, or Impact

In the post-decision press conference, Powell reinforced the message that the Fed is in wait-and-see mode:

• “We don’t know” yet how tariff policy will play out or impact the broader economy.
• Reaffirmed the U.S. economy is in solid shape but acknowledged growing downside risks.
• Described consumer stress as significant but not yet showing up in jobless claims or unemployment data.
• Said the Fed could move quickly if needed but sees low cost in waiting for more clarity.
• Left open the possibility of rate cuts or no cuts at all, depending entirely on incoming data.
• Emphasized that businesses and households are postponing decisions, and if nothing changes, it will eventually show in the data.

Powell: Economy Strong, Fed Patient but Watching Closely

In his opening remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a measured tone. He called the economy resilient but acknowledged high uncertainty ahead.

• Consumer and business surveys show weakening sentiment, though hard data has yet to reflect a downturn.
• Labor market remains balanced and consistent with maximum employment.
• Inflation is still elevated, and tariff impacts are unpredictable.
• Powell emphasized that tariffs could lead to either short-lived or persistent price increases.
• If goals—price stability and employment—diverge, the Fed will weigh how far off targets are and how long it might take to restore balance.
• For now, Powell said the Fed has time and does not feel pressure to act.

WSJ: Tariffs May Raise Tech Prices by 30%

The Wall Street Journal reports new tariffs could drive laptop and smartphone prices up by as much as 30%.

This raises concerns about another wave of cost-push inflation, challenging the idea that tariff-related inflation would be a one-off adjustment. The risk: persistent inflation pressure if these higher prices stick.

US Treasury Sec Bessent: US is looking to expand leadership in IMF/World Bank

• US Treasury Sec Bessent is speaking on Capitol Hill

US Treasury Sec Bessent is speaking on Capitol Hill in front of the US House financial services committee

• US is looking to expand leadership in IMF/World Bank
• Says IMF SDR process should serve US interests
• IMF should not help large, well-financed countries through SDR allocations
• US should have a red light or greenlight rules for help sound investment, no yellow zone.
• U.S. Treasury has tools to continue to take sanction actions against people who threaten peace, stability Myanmar
• Declines to say which countries the US could reach trade agreements with this week. Saying that it would be detrimental to US interests.
• Some trade negotiations are quite advanced toward agreements in principle.
• Confirms that China negotiations will begin on Saturday in Switzerland
• Treasury markets were very well-functioning during recent volatility.
• Time for China to graduate from developing country status

VP Vance. There is a big gulf between Russia and Ukraine

• VP Vance speaking on a myriad of topics

• Security posture of last 20 years is not adequate for the next 20 years
• We think Russians are asking for too much
• Would like Russians and Ukrainians to agree to guidelines for talking to each other.
• There is a big gulf between where Ukrainians and Russians are.
• Probably impossible to mediate this without at least some direct negotiation between Russia and Ukraine.
• No conversation between US and China about a strategic deal of Taiwan.
• We think China will have to let their population consume more.
• Open to having conversations with friends and more adversarial national about rebalancing.
• We think we can do that while preserving dialogue with China.
• Conversations are ongoing with EU.
• We want European markets to be open to American goods
• Think we can have a better trading relationship with your pants if they would drop trade barriers
• We think there is a deal that would reintegrate Iran into global economy
• Would prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon
• Would be open to sitting down with Russia and China to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in the world.
• So far so good on negotiations with Iran
• Iran can have civil nuclear power
• Trump thinks goal should be 5% spending on defense and NATO

U.S. Reportedly Expands Intelligence Operations in Greenland

According to a Wall Street Journal report, the U.S. is ramping up intelligence activity in Greenland. Agencies have been tasked with identifying local figures in Greenland and Denmark who align with American interests.

The move follows past comments by former President Trump, who publicly floated the idea of acquiring Greenland, citing national security reasons.

Commodities News

Gold Slips After Fed Holds Rates, Warns on Inflation

Gold prices pulled back after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% and flagged elevated inflation risks and rising uncertainty.

The yellow metal dipped over 1% to $3,394 as traders focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments following the announcement. While the Fed acknowledged solid economic growth and a strong labor market, it warned that both inflation and unemployment risks have increased.

The Fed also confirmed its balance sheet reduction will continue, reinforcing a steady but cautious policy stance.

Gold Market Snapshot:

• Spot Gold: Down 1.1% → $3,394
• Immediate resistance held at $3,400
• Support now eyed at $3,350, with further downside risk toward $3,300 if Powell maintains a hawkish stance

Upside Scenario:
A dovish tone from Powell could trigger a rebound toward $3,450, with a potential retest of the $3,500 all-time high if inflation expectations ease.

WTI Oil Eyes $60 as U.S.-China Talks Spark Optimism

WTI crude prices continue to recover, approaching the $60.00 level as traders bet on a thaw in U.S.–China trade tensions. Brent and WTI futures have bounced over the past two days on renewed hopes that the tariff war may have peaked.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer confirmed they will meet Chinese officials this week in Switzerland. Bessent suggested the goal is de-escalation, not a sweeping deal: “This will be about de-escalation, not the big trade deal,” he told CNBC.

Current Tariff Landscape:

• U.S. tariffs on China: up to 145%
• China tariffs on U.S.: up to 125%
• Initial U.S. levy of 54% included a penalty for fentanyl trafficking

Reduced trade friction would be bullish for oil demand, especially from China—the world’s top crude importer.

OPEC+ Dynamic Adds a Cap to Prices:
Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced it will accelerate production increases, adding 960,000 barrels per day in June. The move follows Kazakhstan’s warning that quota limits are damaging its oil fields, prompting it to break compliance and prioritize national output.

WTI Technicals:

• Resistance: $60.00 (key psychological level)
• Support: Rising trendline around $58.25
• Latest Price: ~$58.62, down slightly after touching $60.22 intraday

Crude Oil Draw Exceeds Expectations, Gasoline Stock Rises

EIA Weekly Report

• Crude inventories: -2.032M (vs -0.833M expected)
• API data (prior): -4.49M
• Gasoline inventories: +0.188M (vs -1.6M expected)
• Distillates: -1.107M (vs -1.271M expected)

Crude price: $58.62, down $0.46. The price failed to hold above the $60 mark and slipped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April 23–May 7 move. Key support lies near the rising 100-hour moving average at $58.26.

EU Energy Plan Lifts European Gas Prices

European gas prices jumped 5.5%—the biggest daily move since March—after the EU unveiled plans to phase out Russian gas.

Key measures:

• Ban all new Russian gas contracts by end-2025
• End long-term contracts by 2027

Also pushing prices higher: reports of halted power flows to the Freeport LNG terminal in the US, hinting at possible supply disruptions.

Palladium, Platinum Start European Session Lower

Precious metals are under pressure this morning:

• Palladium (XPD/USD): $973.20, down from $978.15
• Platinum (XPT/USD): $988.42, slightly lower from $989.20

Both metals are trading weakly amid softer demand signals and technical selling at the start of the session.

China Buys More Gold for Sixth Straight Month

China’s central bank continues its steady accumulation of gold, with April marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase in reserves. The People’s Bank of China reported holdings of 73.77 million ounces at the end of April, up from 73.70 million in March.

In dollar terms, the value of the reserves climbed to $243.59 billion, compared to $229.59 billion the month prior. The ongoing gold purchases signal a clear effort to diversify reserves as China looks to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.

Oil Rises on US-China Trade Talks and OPEC+ Supply Outlook

Brent crude extended gains on hopes of de-escalation as the US and China plan trade talks this weekend.

ING commentary:

• Trade talks are a positive sign but won’t shift demand outlook without tariff reductions.
• OPEC+ supply increases are expected to continue through Q3, adding to a surplus later this year.
• API data was mixed: crude down 4.49M barrels, Cushing down 854K, gasoline down 1.97M, distillates up 2.24M.

Oil Inventories Drop Sharply, Private Survey Shows Bigger Draw Than Forecast

Ahead of official government numbers, a private oil inventory survey revealed a sharper-than-expected decline in US crude stocks:

• Crude: -4.49 million barrels (vs. -2.5 million expected)
• Gasoline: -1.97 million barrels
• Distillates: +2.24 million barrels
• Cushing: -854,000 barrels
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve: +600,000 barrels

The significant crude draw may support oil prices if confirmed by EIA data.

Europe News

Major European Stock Indices Close Lower Across the Board

European markets ended the session in negative territory, while U.S. markets saw mixed movement ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.

• DAX (Germany): -0.57%
• CAC 40 (France): -0.98%
• FTSE 100 (UK): -0.53%
• Ibex (Spain): -0.37%
• FTSE MIB (Italy): -0.46%
• Euro Stoxx 50: -0.50%

U.S. yields fluctuated during the session, reflecting caution before the FOMC’s latest policy update.

Eurozone Retail Sales Slip Slightly in March

MoM: -0.1% | Expected: 0.0% | Prior (revised): +0.2%

Retail spending in the euro area dipped modestly in March. Food and non-food sales both fell 0.1%, while fuel purchases rose 0.4%. The data reflect weak consumer demand and a still-cautious retail environment despite easing inflation.

Germany’s Industrial Orders Jump in March, Broad-Based Growth

MoM: +3.6% | Expected: +1.3% | Prior: 0.0%

German factory orders rose sharply in March, driven by across-the-board gains. Capital goods orders climbed 3.7%, consumer goods 8.7%, and intermediate goods 2.5%. Even after stripping out large orders, new business was up 3.2%, pointing to strong underlying momentum in the industrial sector.

Germany April Construction PMI Shows Slower Declines

PMI: 45.1 | Prior: 40.3

Germany’s construction sector remains in contraction, but the pace of decline eased in April. Activity and new orders still fell, but not as sharply. The broad improvement across sub-sectors suggests conditions may be stabilizing, albeit from a low base.

France Narrows Trade Deficit in March as Exports Outpace Imports

Deficit: €6.25B | Prior (revised): €7.70B

France’s trade deficit shrank in March as exports rose 5.6% month-over-month while imports increased 2.3%. The improvement suggests some recovery in external demand and helps ease the country’s long-running trade imbalance.

UK April Construction PMI Eases Decline but Sector Still Struggling

Actual: 46.6 | Expected: 45.8 | Prior: 46.4

UK construction activity remains in contraction, but the pace of decline slowed in April. Housebuilding held up relatively well, offering a bright spot. However, commercial construction worsened sharply, falling at the fastest rate since May 2020. Overall, the sector remains under pressure despite some tentative signs of resilience.

 S&P Global notes that:

“UK construction companies have endured a bumpy ride since the start of the year as domestic economic headwinds and hesitancy among clients led to a lack of new work to replace completed contracts.

“Output levels continued to slide in April, but the rate of decline eased to its slowest for three months. This was helped by slower reductions in residential building work and civil engineering activity.

“Commercial construction was a weak spot and lost momentum since March. Output decreased at the fastest pace for nearly five years amid reports of greater risk aversion among clients and a wait-and-see approach to major spending decisions.

“Despite a sharp and accelerated fall in input buying, strong cost pressures persisted in April. Overall input price inflation eased only slightly from March’s 26-month peak. Survey respondents commented on rising prices paid for a range of raw materials, as well as efforts by suppliers to pass on greater payroll costs.

“An encouraging development in April was a slight improvement in business activity expectations for the year ahead. Output growth projections improved to the highest level so far this year, with a number of survey respondents citing the prospect of a turnaround in workloads across the residential building segment.”

EU to announce provisional list of tariffs against US on Thursday

• The report mirrors an earlier report

Bloomberg is reporting that:

• EU is to announce provisional list of tariffs against the US on Thursday
• EU tariffs to be enforced if talks with the US fail

EU Weighs Tariffs on Boeing as Trade Talks with U.S. Hang in the Balance

According to sources cited by the Financial Times, the EU is preparing a list of U.S. goods—including Boeing aircraft—as potential targets for tariffs if transatlantic trade talks break down.

The proposed list covers around €100 billion in U.S. imports and would serve as a counter to ongoing U.S. tariffs. However, this move isn’t final. Any retaliation would require approval from EU member states and would only come if current negotiations fail to reduce U.S. barriers.

Asia-Pacific & World News

Xi Jinping: China, Russia Must Guard Post-War Order and Resist Outside Disruption

In remarks to Russian media, Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed China’s stance on upholding the post-World War II international order. He emphasized the depth of China-Russia ties, saying both countries “firmly support each other” and must “jointly resist any attempt to disrupt” their mutual trust.

Xi also underlined China’s long-term objective regarding Taiwan, stating that “no matter how the situation in Taiwan changes, China will eventually reunify with Taiwan.” He framed the China-Russia partnership as essential to maintaining global strategic stability.

China: U.S. Requested Trade Talks, But Don’t Expect a Breakthrough Yet

Beijing has confirmed that the latest round of U.S.-China trade talks was initiated by Washington. Chinese officials made a point of clarifying this to signal that China hasn’t backed down, though they added that dialogue has always been on the table.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry reiterated that it will protect national interests and that meaningful progress depends on the U.S. abandoning threats. While any engagement is a positive step, there’s skepticism about how soon this will translate into action—especially on high-profile issues like the 145% tariffs. For now, expectations are set low, with little optimism for a quick resolution.

China Agrees to Engage: Ministry of Commerce Greenlights Trade Talks

China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed it has evaluated the US outreach and agreed to enter trade discussions. In a formal statement, Beijing cited global expectations, domestic interests, and input from American businesses and consumers as key considerations.

Vice Premier He Lifeng will head to Switzerland from May 9 to 12 as China’s top trade representative. His talks with Bessent are now officially on the schedule, following Beijing’s green light to open dialogue channels.

Market Support Measures from PBOC and CSRC

In a bid to shore up economic confidence, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) have activated a slate of new financial support tools.

Key moves include:

• Market Confidence: Central Huijin, with backing from the PBOC, will act as a stabilization fund to support equity markets.
• Insurance Funds: An extra 60 billion yuan (approx. $8.3 billion) from long-term insurance funds will be invested in equities under an expanded pilot program.
• Tech and Industry Lending: RMB 300 billion in re-lending funds will be directed to support industrial upgrades and innovation.
• Social Infrastructure: Another RMB 500 billion re-lending facility will finance infrastructure projects in elder care and service consumption.

New Credit Support and Rate Cuts from China’s Central Bank

The PBOC is also fine-tuning interest rates and expanding access to credit to keep liquidity flowing in the system.

Monetary adjustments include:

• A 0.5 percentage point reduction in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR), effective May 15.
• A full cut (from 5% to 0%) in the RRR for auto finance and leasing firms.
• A 10 basis point cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate, now at 1.4%.
• A 25 basis point reduction in the structural monetary policy rate.
• Lower rates for housing provident fund loans, cut by 25 basis points.
• A 10 basis point drop in the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) rate, effective May 8.

China Unlocks More Insurance Capital, Signals Real Estate Support

Beijing has announced it will allow an additional 60 billion yuan in long-term insurance capital to be invested in the stock market. This expansion is part of a broader effort to boost participation in capital markets and stabilize the economy.

Li Yunze, head of China’s top financial regulatory body, also confirmed that policies targeting property market stabilization are in the pipeline. Together, the moves underscore China’s pivot toward resilience amid ongoing economic pressures.

Sovereign Wealth and Regulatory Tools Mobilized for Stock Market Stability

The CSRC is deploying Central Huijin and the PBOC as core components of its equity market stabilization strategy.

Initiatives include:

• Support for A-share listed companies hit by US tariffs.
• Backing for mergers and acquisitions to consolidate sectors under strain.
• Encouragement of long-term capital inflows into stock markets.
• Reforms for China’s tech boards.
• Comprehensive plans to brace for external economic shocks.

The CSRC leadership remains confident that these steps will ensure steady development in the domestic capital markets.

PBOC Governor: Policy Rate and RRR Cuts Coming Amid Global Uncertainty

At a joint briefing from the PBOC, CSRC, and National Financial Regulatory Authority, Governor Pan acknowledged mounting global uncertainties but maintained confidence in the stability of China’s financial system.

To reinforce market resilience, the PBOC will:

• Reduce the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.4% from 1.5%, effective May 8.
• Cut the RRR by 50 basis points, releasing roughly 1 trillion yuan into the banking system.
• Introduce a 500 billion yuan re-lending program for elderly care and consumption.
• Guide banks to reduce deposit rates and lower structural policy tool interest rates by 25 basis points.

These coordinated moves are expected to trigger a 10 basis point reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), further easing credit conditions.

US Treasury’s Bessent and China’s He Lifeng to Open Dialogue in Switzerland

US Treasury Secretary Bessent is set to meet China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland this week to initiate economic talks. The meeting, scheduled for May 8, will coincide with Bessent’s visit to the Swiss President.

This initial round is expected to be more about easing tensions than producing any immediate breakthroughs. Bessent himself hinted as much, stating, “My sense is this will be about de-escalation.”

He added that the focus will likely be to first agree on the agenda: “We’ll decide what we are going to talk about on Saturday and Sunday.” The message from Washington seems clear—no illusions about dramatic outcomes, just a cautious first step.

The US side appears firm on maintaining trade ties in areas like textiles but wants to pull back from Chinese dependence in strategic sectors such as steel, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.

Bessent also noted promising trade overtures from Indonesia, which is offering to lift both tariff and non-tariff trade barriers.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2005 (vs. estimate at 7.2124)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.

Over 200 Santos Gas Wells Flooded in Australia’s Cooper Basin, Output Slashed

Santos CEO reports that severe flooding has submerged over 200 natural gas wells in Australia’s Cooper Basin, reducing production by about 15%. The region is a major contributor to Australia’s gas supply, and the disruption highlights the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to extreme weather events.

New Zealand Jobs Data: Unemployment Beats Forecasts, Wages Disappoint

New Zealand’s labor market showed mixed signals in its Q1 report:

• Unemployment rate held steady at 5.1%, beating the 5.3% forecast.
• Quarterly employment change came in at +0.1%, in line with expectations, and up from -0.1% previously.
• Year-over-year employment declined 0.7%, more than the -0.5% estimate, though better than the prior -1.1%.
• Participation rate dipped slightly to 70.8%, just under the 71.0% estimate.
• Private sector wages (excluding and including overtime) rose 0.4% q/q, falling short of the expected 0.5%.
• Average hourly earnings saw minimal growth at +0.2% q/q, down sharply from +1.3% prior.

RBNZ Warns of Rising Financial System Risks Amid Global Uncertainty

In its latest Financial Stability Report, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand flagged rising vulnerabilities in the financial system over the past six months. While global volatility has intensified, New Zealand’s banking sector remains well-capitalized and liquid, with healthy profits and improving loan quality.

Insurers also show greater resilience, with recent stress tests indicating stronger buffers. However, geopolitical tensions are adding fresh risk to financial markets and global growth outlooks.

Japan Services Sector Expands in April, Driven by Strong Demand

Japan’s services sector posted its highest growth in three months, with the Jibun Bank/S&P Global Services PMI for April confirmed at 52.4, up from 50.0 previously and above the flash estimate of 52.2. The composite PMI came in at 51.2.

According to S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes, the expansion was service-driven as manufacturing contracted more heavily due to US tariffs. Firms faced rising input costs—the highest in two years—and responded with price hikes to protect margins. Business confidence dipped across both sectors, reflecting global concerns.

Fujifilm to Build Semiconductor Materials Plant in India

Japanese media confirms Fujifilm will construct a semiconductor materials plant in India, aiming to capitalize on the country’s emerging chip sector and diversify supply chains away from China.

The facility will support a government-backed semiconductor initiative in India. Land acquisition is expected in 2025, with construction starting by 2026 and full operations targeted for 2028.

Crypto Market Pulse

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Eyes $25 as Open Interest Hits All-Time High

HYPE is trading around $21.20 after rebounding nearly 6% this week, fueled by surging open interest and a major ecosystem upgrade. Open interest hit a record $697 million, according to CoinGlass, indicating growing investor positioning. Ethena Labs’ launch of the USDe stablecoin on Hyperliquid’s platform adds further momentum by enhancing its utility.

Technically, HYPE bounced off support near $19.24 and could rally another 17% toward $25 if momentum holds. RSI at 66 and a bullish MACD crossover both signal strength. The new integration improves ecosystem appeal, trading volume, and DeFi potential.

Litecoin Breaks $90 but Faces Major Resistance Ahead

Litecoin (LTC) hit $92 for the first time in over a month, buoyed by broader crypto optimism and easing macro concerns. But it now faces resistance between $92–$95, where over 6.8 million LTC were previously bought.

A 17.7% rise in open interest suggests fresh bets on a continued rally. LTC has broken above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, with the next key level at $100. Strong RSI and recent bullish candles support further upside—provided it can break through the current resistance band.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Tops Gold’s in Year-to-Date Inflows

BlackRock’s IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF has attracted $6.96 billion in inflows this year, surpassing SPDR Gold Trust’s $6.5 billion and ranking sixth among all ETFs. Despite Bitcoin underperforming gold in price—up only 3.8% vs gold’s 29%—investor interest in BTC remains strong.

The shift signals growing institutional confidence in crypto’s long-term future. Analysts now expect Bitcoin ETFs to eventually triple gold ETFs in assets under management within 3–5 years, especially as regulatory clarity improves and mainstream adoption expands.

Bitcoin Holds Strong Above Key Level as Trade Talk Optimism Boosts Markets

Bitcoin has broken through a major resistance area, hovering around the $95,000 mark as traders bet on a U.S.–China trade breakthrough. Optimism in the broader market—fueled by expectations of a de-escalation in tariffs—has lifted crypto along with equities.

Analysts see the 90K zone as a key battleground. Buyers will likely defend this level as they aim for a rally to new all-time highs, while sellers are eyeing a potential pullback to 85K. Technical patterns show an expanding rising wedge on the 4-hour chart—suggesting volatility ahead.

The market is watching for details of a potential trade deal and the FOMC decision. A dovish tilt from the Fed could set the stage for a dip-buying opportunity. Still, without a clear move on tariffs, the next breakout will hinge on macro clarity.

New Hampshire Legalizes State Crypto Investments

Governor Ayotte of New Hampshire has signed a landmark bill allowing the state government to invest in cryptocurrency. The law permits investment only in digital assets with a market cap above $500 billion, effectively excluding small-cap coins and memecoins.

This makes New Hampshire the first US state to give its treasury crypto investment powers under such a framework.

More here.

Trump-Themed Meme Coin: 58 Wallets Gain $1.1B While Hundreds of Thousands Lose

According to data from Chainalysis reported by CNBC, 58 cryptocurrency wallets each made over $10 million in profits from the $TRUMP meme coin, netting a combined $1.1 billion.

In contrast, around 764,000 wallets—primarily individual retail investors—suffered losses. The coin’s launch has followed a now-familiar pattern of large early gains concentrated in a few hands.

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

United States

• Stocks Close Higher: All major U.S. indices ended in the green after a volatile session. A late-session rally in chip stocks, triggered by reports that Trump may ease global export restrictions on semiconductors, pushed markets higher.
  • Dow Jones: +0.70%
  • S&P 500: +0.43%
  • NASDAQ: +0.27%
  • Russell 2000: +0.33%
• Tech Volatility: Alphabet sank 7.26% on reports of declining search traffic, possibly tied to Apple’s plans to integrate AI into its browser. Apple fell 1.14%.
• Fed Holds Rates Steady: The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50%. Powell signaled patience, highlighting elevated uncertainty and tariff-related risks to both inflation and employment.

Canada

• (No major headlines today from Canada)
  Markets were quiet from a data or policy perspective. Investors largely followed U.S. Fed commentary and global trade developments.

Commodities

• Oil Rising on Trade Talk Optimism:
  • WTI Crude hovered around $58.62, aiming to break $60.00 on hopes of reduced U.S.-China tensions.
  • Discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials this week are expected to focus on tariff de-escalation.
  • OPEC+ plans to accelerate output increases (up 960K bpd in June), which may cap further upside.
• Gold Dips After Fed Holds Rates:
  • Gold slid over 1% to $3,394 after the Fed decision.
  • Traders await Powell’s next comments—hawkish tone could pressure gold toward $3,350–$3,300.
  • A dovish pivot could trigger a move back toward $3,450 or even the $3,500 record high.

Europe

• Markets Close Lower:
  • European indices ended the day in the red amid mixed earnings and cautious Fed commentary.
    • DAX: -0.57%
    • CAC 40: -0.98%
    • FTSE 100: -0.53%
    • Euro Stoxx 50: -0.50%
  • Sentiment was also weighed down by persistent inflation concerns and trade uncertainty.

Asia

• (No new headlines reported today)
  Earlier in the week, markets responded to China’s PBOC easing and Japan’s improving services PMI, but today was quiet for major releases or moves.

Rest of the World

• (No notable developments today)
  Key emerging markets were relatively stable with little new macroeconomic or political drivers reported.

Crypto

• Bitcoin Steady After Fed, Eyes Trade Deal Impacts:
  • Bitcoin held above key support levels, consolidating gains made earlier this week.
  • The broader market is waiting for macro catalysts—particularly the Fed’s next moves and potential trade developments between the U.S. and China.
• HYPE Token Rally Continues:
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) is up nearly 6% this week, currently trading around $21.20.
  • Open interest hit a record $697M, and the recent launch of the USDe stablecoin has fueled bullish momentum.
  • Technicals point toward a push to $25 if momentum holds.
• Litecoin Tests Resistance:
  • Litecoin climbed to $92, facing a strong resistance band between $92–$95.
  • RSI remains bullish and open interest has surged nearly 18%, showing strong trader interest in a breakout toward $100.