North America News
Stocks Surge as Jobs Data Calms Recession Fears, Fed Cuts Look Less Likely
U.S. stocks closed sharply higher Friday after the May jobs report delivered the rare combination of beating expectations without spooking markets. The Dow climbed 443 points to 42,762.87, the Nasdaq rose 231 points to 19,529.93, and the S&P 500 added 61 points to close at 6,000.36—just off its session high.
The stronger-than-expected labor data—139K jobs added and average hourly earnings up 0.4%—suggests the economy remains on firm footing. Treasury yields spiked on the report, with the 2-year finishing at 4.04% (+14 bps) and the 10-year at 4.51% (+12 bps), reflecting traders dialing back expectations for rate cuts.
Fed funds futures now show just a 16.5% chance of a July rate cut, down from 31.4% yesterday. Odds for September also fell to 60.6% from 73.9%.
Even with yields rising and rate cuts fading, equity markets rallied. All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by energy (+2.0%), communication services (+1.9%), and consumer discretionary (+1.6%). Tesla rebounded 3.8% after Thursday’s sell-off, despite continued tension between CEO Elon Musk and President Trump. Reports say the White House attempted to coordinate a call to cool tensions, but Trump isn’t biting—for now.
Micro- and small-cap stocks outpaced large-caps in a broad risk-on rally. Advancers beat decliners better than 2-to-1 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Volume was light, but the tone was solid.
Economic snapshot:
- Nonfarm payrolls: +139K (vs. 130K expected)
- Unemployment rate: 4.2% (unchanged)
- Average hourly earnings: +0.4% m/m, +3.9% y/y
- Consumer credit: +$17.9B in April (revolving credit +$7.7B, non-revolving +$10.2B)
Year-to-date index performance:
- S&P 500: +2.0%
- Nasdaq: +1.1%
- Dow: +0.5%
- S&P 400 (Mid-cap): -2.2%
- Russell 2000 (Small-cap): -4.4%
Bottom line:
The May employment report threads the needle—strong enough to support earnings but not so hot as to trigger panic. With inflation data on deck and the Fed in blackout mode, markets may drift near-term, but Friday’s rally showed the bulls still have fuel.
U.S. Consumer Credit Surges to $17.87 Billion in April
American consumers leaned heavily on borrowing in April, with total consumer credit jumping $17.87 billion—well above the $11.30 billion expected. This follows an $8.60 billion gain in March. The sharp increase signals continued consumer reliance on credit amid high interest rates and inflation pressures.
U.S. Job Growth Slows in April, Wage Inflation Picks Up
The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in April, exceeding forecasts of 130,000 but trailing the previous month’s upwardly revised 147,000. Revisions subtracted 95,000 jobs from the prior two months. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 4.2%, but the unrounded figure hit 4.244%—the highest since October 2021.
Labor force participation dipped to 62.4% from 62.6%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month, ahead of the 0.3% estimate, and 3.9% year-over-year. Full-time employment dropped by 623,000, while part-time jobs were roughly flat.
Healthcare led job creation with 62,000 new roles, including 30,000 in hospitals. Leisure and hospitality added 48,000, and social assistance grew by 16,000. Federal government jobs fell by 22,000—bringing the YTD decline to 59,000.
Fed’s Harker: Says FOMC can cut later in the year
- Comments from the outgoing Philly Fed President:
- It’s still possible the Fed can cut later this year
- Uncertainties make it very hard to divine monetary policy outlook
- Worries that the quality of economic data is eroding
- We’re increasingly flying blind on data
Internal Clashes in U.S. Team Disrupt Japan Tariff Talks
Trade talks between the U.S. and Japan are being derailed by internal friction within the American delegation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Rep Jamiesol Greer are reportedly at odds, offering inconsistent positions to their Japanese counterparts. One source said the trio even paused a session to argue among themselves—muddying Washington’s stance on tariffs.
Senate GOP Signals Willingness to Trim Medicare Under Trump’s Budget Plan
According to NBC News, Senate Republicans are considering changes to Medicare as part of President Trump’s expansive spending agenda. While they’re framing the effort as a crackdown on “waste, fraud, and abuse,” some lawmakers suggest they’re open to broader program revisions. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) argued, “Why don’t we go after that? I think we should.”
Trump on Musk Rift: “Never Done Better”
Donald Trump brushed off reports of tension with Elon Musk, telling Politico in a short phone exchange that “It’s going very well, never done better.” Asked about the rumored falling out, Trump replied, “Oh it’s okay.” Meanwhile, White House staff arranged a call with Musk last Friday, aimed at smoothing over the public rift with the Tesla CEO.
Canada Adds 8.8K Jobs in May, Unemployment Hits 7.0%
Canada’s labor market added 8,800 jobs in May, beating expectations for a 12,500-job decline. Statistics Canada reported a steady unemployment rate of 7.0%, up slightly from April’s 6.9%. The monthly gains were fueled entirely by full-time positions, which surged by 57,700. Part-time employment dropped by 48,800.
The participation rate held at 65.3%, and average hourly wages climbed 3.5% year-over-year, matching the previous reading. StatCan noted that overall employment has barely grown since January, following a strong run of gains from October 2024 through early 2025.
Canada’s Job Market Losing Steam, CIBC Says Unemployment Will Keep Rising
CIBC analysts see mounting signs of stress in Canada’s job market following May’s employment report. Although the economy added 8,800 jobs—outperforming the expected loss of 12,500—the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.0% from 6.9%.
CIBC noted soft spots in trade-sensitive sectors like manufacturing and transportation, partially offset by gains in other areas. “The labor market hasn’t collapsed, but it’s clearly underperforming,” they wrote. The bank expects joblessness to rise gradually through the second half of 2025, pointing to Trump’s tariffs and potential rate cuts from the Bank of Canada as key factors to watch.
Canada-China Talks Focus on Trade, Opioids, and Diplomacy
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently held discussions with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, covering bilateral trade, diplomatic engagement, and the fentanyl crisis. Both leaders agreed to maintain open lines of communication and expressed mutual intent to work jointly on combating opioid trafficking, according to a readout from Canada’s PMO.
Commodities News
Gold Slips on Strong U.S. Jobs Data, But Weekly Gains Hold Above 1.3%
Gold prices fell for the second straight session Friday, as stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data dented hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts. Still, bullion is set to notch a weekly gain of more than 1.3%. As of Friday afternoon, spot gold was down 0.84% at $3,322.
The May Nonfarm Payrolls report showed the U.S. added 139,000 jobs—beating expectations—while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. That was enough to firm the U.S. dollar, which climbed 0.49% on the day, and push Treasury yields higher across the curve. The result? Traders scaled back their bets on any aggressive easing from the Fed this year.
Fed rate cut odds have now dropped below two cuts priced in for 2025, and markets are reassessing the outlook ahead of the June 17–18 FOMC meeting. The Fed now enters its blackout period, putting the focus squarely on next week’s inflation data—CPI, PPI, and consumer sentiment figures.
Despite Friday’s pullback, ongoing geopolitical flashpoints, including the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, continue to provide a floor under gold. Metals Focus expects global central banks to buy another 1,000 metric tonnes of gold in 2025—marking four straight years of strong official demand.
Key drivers:
- Strong labor data lowers odds of near-term rate cuts
- Dollar strength and higher yields pressure gold short term
- Central banks expected to remain heavy buyers of bullion
- Ongoing global conflicts and uncertainty lend underlying support
Silver Hits $36 for First Time Since 2012 on Surging Industrial Demand
Silver spiked to $36 on Friday—its highest price in over 13 years—as demand for the metal’s industrial applications ramps up. Prices rose nearly 9% on the week, supported by both economic recovery and geopolitical tension.
Although Silver’s safe-haven status took a backseat after renewed U.S.-China trade talks, its use in manufacturing remains a strong driver. Strength in Eurozone retail and GDP data and solid employment numbers out of North America have boosted confidence in global demand. The Gold/Silver ratio plunged, highlighting increased investor appetite for Silver’s industrial upside.
U.S. Rig Count Slips, Canada Adds Two
Baker Hughes reported a 4-rig drop in the U.S. count this week, bringing the total to 559. Oil rigs fell by 9 to 442, while gas rigs rose by 5 to 114. The miscellaneous category held steady at 3.
Compared to a year ago, the U.S. has 35 fewer rigs overall, driven by a 50-rig drop in oil and a 1-rig drop in miscellaneous, partially offset by 16 more gas rigs.
The offshore rig count stayed at 13—9 below last year.
In Canada, the total rose by 2 to 114. Oil rigs were unchanged at 69, while gas rigs climbed by 2 to 46. Canada’s count is still down 29 from a year ago.
Gold Nears $3,400 as Global Risks Drive Haven Demand
Gold is approaching $3,400/oz again as traders respond to a wave of geopolitical and fiscal stress, notes Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht. The surge comes amid new U.S. tariffs on metals and fresh Ukrainian attacks inside Russia, including strikes on airbases and the Crimean bridge. Rising U.S. debt and questions around the dollar’s safe-haven status are also adding to gold’s appeal. Friday’s U.S. jobs report could swing expectations on Fed rate cuts and influence gold’s next move.
IEA: Energy Investment Tops $3.3 Trillion With Green Tech Leading
Energy investments are set to hit a record $3.3 trillion this year, with two-thirds directed at low-emission technologies, per the IEA’s latest update cited by Commerzbank. Spending on renewables, nuclear, grids, and electrification now dwarfs fossil fuel outlays. Oil, gas, and coal will still draw $1.1 trillion, but upstream oil spending is forecast to drop 6%—the first decline since the pandemic. The driver: U.S. shale companies are scaling back investment, hinting at a production peak.
OPEC Output Rises in May but Lags Behind Quota
Nine OPEC members subject to quotas raised production by roughly 200,000 barrels per day in May, according to a Bloomberg survey cited by Commerzbank. That’s short of their agreed increase, though total output still overshot the target by 350,000 bpd—mainly due to Iraq and the UAE. Libya, exempt from caps, ramped up to a 13-year high of 1.3 million bpd. OPEC’s overall May production hit 27.54 million bpd. More increases are likely in the months ahead, putting pressure on prices.
Silver Breaks $35 in Asia-Led Futures Surge
Silver burst through the $35 per ounce mark in Asia trading, igniting talk of a fresh rally, according to TDS’ Daniel Ghali. He notes the breakout was futures-driven and not led by major SHFE traders. ETF inflows hit their 98th percentile, though such spikes haven’t historically led to strong momentum in the days following. Ghali warns London’s silver liquidity may be thinner than it seems, setting the stage for potential squeezes, but cautions: “This break offers no guarantees—be like water.”
Chinese Traders Push Gold Positioning to Record Highs on SHFE
Gold trading on the SHFE is reaching new peaks, led by aggressive Chinese speculators even as Western fund flows remain muted, says TDS strategist Daniel Ghali. Chinese ETFs aren’t moving much, but buying pressure in futures is strong. Meanwhile, Western macro traders are flat, and CTAs are maxed out on long exposure. The dynamic suggests a potentially range-bound gold market unless a fresh global catalyst emerges.
Saudi Arabia Trims Oil Prices Slightly for Asia in July
Saudi Arabia cut its July official selling price for Arab Light to Asia by just 20 cents to $1.20 over the Oman/Dubai benchmark, per Commerzbank. The modest cut contrasts with expectations of a larger drop and suggests steady demand. U.S. buyers saw a marginal price hike to $3.50 over ASCI. In contrast, European buyers will pay significantly more, with the OSP rising by $1.80 to $3.25 in northwest Europe and $3.05 in the Mediterranean. Riyadh appears focused on defending market share in Asia.
Europe News
European Stocks End Week on Solid Footing
European equities closed mostly higher Friday and posted modest weekly gains. Here’s the breakdown:
Friday’s Close:
- STOXX 600: +0.3%
- Germany’s DAX: -0.1%
- France’s CAC: +0.1%
- UK FTSE 100: +0.1%
- Spain’s IBEX: +0.25%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.5%
On the Week:
- STOXX 600: +0.9%
- DAX: +1.2%
- CAC: +0.7%
- FTSE 100: +0.7%
- IBEX: +0.6%
- FTSE MIB: +1.2%
The gains reflect investor resilience amid mixed macro signals and ongoing rate speculation.
Eurozone GDP Revised Higher Again for Q1
Eurostat’s final Q1 GDP numbers show 0.6% quarterly growth, beating the second estimate of 0.4% and improving on Q4’s 0.2% rise. Year-over-year GDP was revised up to 1.5% from 1.2%. Household consumption rose 0.2% in both the eurozone and the EU, while government spending stayed flat in the eurozone and dipped 0.1% in the EU. Investment surged 1.8%, with exports up 1.9% in the eurozone and imports gaining 1.4%.
Eurozone Retail Sales Hold Steady in April, Yearly Growth Beats
Retail sales across the euro area in April rose by 0.1% month-on-month, matching expectations and bouncing from a -0.1% reading in March. On a yearly basis, sales were up 2.3%, beating the 1.3% forecast and the previous 1.5%. Solid fiscal spending and rate cuts from the ECB are helping keep consumption resilient.
German Industrial Output Drops Sharper Than Forecast in April
Germany’s industrial production fell 1.4% in April, deeper than the 1.0% expected decline, according to Destatis. March’s previously reported +3.0% was revised down to +2.3%. On a yearly basis, output rose 1.8%, rebounding from a prior -0.4%. Over the February–April window, production climbed 0.5% compared to the previous three-month period.
French Industry Takes a Hit in April With 1.4% Drop
France’s industrial production contracted by 1.4% in April, significantly below expectations of a 0.2% gain, according to INSEE. March’s result was revised down slightly to a 0.1% increase from the initial 0.2%. The sharp pullback signals renewed pressure on the French manufacturing sector.
UK House Prices Slide More Than Expected in May
Halifax’s May data shows UK house prices fell 0.4% month-over-month, more than the expected 0.1% decline. This follows a 0.4% rise in April. On a yearly basis, prices rose 2.5%, undershooting the 2.9% estimate and down from the prior 3.2%. The data underscores the cooling momentum in Britain’s housing market.
Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages at Halifax said: “These small monthly movements point to a housing market that has remained largely stable, with average prices down by just -0.2% since the start of the year. The market appears to have absorbed the temporary surge in activity over spring, which was driven by the changes to stamp duty.
“Affordability remains a challenge, with house prices still high relative to incomes. However, lower mortgage rates and steady wage growth have helped support buyer confidence.
“The outlook will depend on the pace of cuts to interest rates, as well as the strength of future income growth and broader inflation trends. Despite ongoing pressure on household finances and a still-uncertain economic backdrop, the housing market has shown resilience – a story we expect to continue in the months ahead.”
ECB’s Centeno: We successfully overcome inflationary process
- Comments from the ECB policymaker
- We successfully overcome inflationary process.
- Tariffs imposed by US are deflationary.
- Monetary policy is in a cycle of reducing rates.
- All data indicate cycle will continue in 2025.
- Euro Area inflation rate will drop further and approach 1% by the beginning of 2026.
- I don’t know at what pace rate moves will happen.
ECB’s Holzmann: I dissented in this week’s rate decision
- Comments from the ECB policymaker
- Lowering rates at a time of high savings and low investments has no effect except a monetary effect.
- I didn’t affect the outcome of the Governing Council meeting with my lone vote.
- We are currently expansive in our monetary policy.
- Lagarde said we are at the end of the cycle, I wanted to discuss whether that is the case.
- Current nominal neutral rate is around 3%.
ECB’s Rehn: Decision-making at each meeting remains key
- Comments from the ECB policymaker
- Decision-making at each meeting remains key.
- Not committing to any rate path.
- ECB keeps full freedom of movement at all coming meetings.
ECB’s Kazaks: Markets should not expect cuts at every meeting
- Comments from the ECB policymaker
- Markets should not expect cuts at every meeting.
- It may well be the case that we pause in July.
- Inflation seen below 2% for some time, we have to remain vigilant.
- Further cuts would be fine-tuning unless we shift out of baseline scenario.
ECB’s Stournaras: ECB has achieved a soft landing
- Comments from the ECB policymaker
- ECB has achieved a soft landing.
- The best thing for the ECB is to wait and see.
- The rate cutting is nearly done.
- Given uncertainty, you can never say it is done.
- ECB may cut if the economy weakens and inflation falls.
- There are downside risks to growth.
- The ECB is quite confident on forecasts.
ECB’s Muller: Agree with Lagarde that cycle almost finished
- Comments from the ECB policymaker
- Agree with Lagarde that cycle almost finished.
- We can be happy with inflation where it is.
- Hard to say what’s coming next on rates.
- We are facing more than average uncertainty.
ECB’s Villeroy: We have won battle against inflation in Europe
- Comments from the ECB policymaker
- We have won battle against inflation in Europe.
- We have tools to react if there’s deflation.
- We will not again see the low rates we saw a few years ago.
Germany’s Merz: Europe Must Reduce Reliance on China, Warns on U.S. Tariffs
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told CNN that Europe is actively working to reduce economic dependence on China. While stopping short of full decoupling, he emphasized building resilience in areas like tech and clean energy. Merz also criticized Trump’s tariffs, calling their impact on German automakers “terrible.” He said Germany and the U.S. have agreed to boost coordination on trade strategy to counterbalance China’s global influence.
ECB Rate Cut Forecast Pushed to September by JP Morgan
JP Morgan has shifted its expectations for the European Central Bank’s next rate cut. Instead of July, the firm now predicts the ECB will move in September. This update revises their previous projection, which had a mid-summer adjustment in view.
Asia-Pacific & World News
PBOC Surprises Markets with 1 Trillion Yuan Liquidity Boost
China’s central bank injected 1 trillion yuan (~$139 billion) into the financial system via three-month reverse repos—an unusual move for mid-month. The People’s Bank of China aims to ease funding strains ahead of a hefty wave of debt maturities. Analysts say the early injection shows Beijing’s urgency to stabilize markets. June sees record NCD repayments (¥4.2 trillion), and more support may follow to aid lending and facilitate debt sales.
WSJ: Iran Sourcing Missile Materials from China
Iran has reportedly secured large quantities of missile components from China, including ammonium perchlorate—a propellant used in ballistic missiles. The Wall Street Journal reports these shipments could support production of hundreds of missiles, with some potentially redirected to regional allies such as the Houthis. This development comes amid a strained nuclear dialogue with the Trump administration.
Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report.
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1845 (vs. estimate at 7.1935)
- PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.
PBOC injected 135bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%
- 291.1bn yuan mature today
- net drain is 156.1bn yuan
Albanese Refuses to Compromise on Biosecurity in U.S. Trade Talks
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is standing firm on biosecurity standards during trade negotiations with the United States. He has made it clear that Canberra will not water down its protections, even as broader trade talks progress.
Japan’s Leading Index Falls Short of Forecasts in April
Japan’s April leading economic index slipped to 103.4, missing the forecast of 104.1, per data from the Cabinet Office on June 6. March’s figure was revised lower from 108.1 to 107.6. The coincident index also edged down to 115.5 from a prior 115.9 (revised to 115.8). The drop comes as trade uncertainty drags on outlooks, and the Bank of Japan continues to hold off on rate hikes pending clarity on inflation and trade deals.
BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying
- Bloomberg with the report
- BoJ is said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying.
- BoJ debate centers on quarterly cuts of 200b to 400b yen.
- BoJ’s new bond-buying plan would last to March 2027.
Japan Mulls Bond Strategy Shift After Weak Auction Results
With soft demand at Thursday’s 30-year bond auction—the weakest since 2023—Japan’s Ministry of Finance is under pressure to rethink its bond issuance strategy. Analysts expect a tilt toward shorter maturities and cuts to long-term debt issuance, potentially starting in July. JPMorgan sees reductions of ¥250–450 billion per month, while Saxo warns that underdelivering could spike yields again. A key June 20 meeting with bond dealers may offer clarity.
Japan to Allow REITs to Hold Data Center Equipment
Japan is preparing to let Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) include data center hardware in their investment portfolios—a move flagged last year. NTT DATA had previously announced its intention to launch a REIT focused on domestic data centers, aiming for a March 2026 debut. The change is expected to improve funding access for tech infrastructure.
Japan’s April Spending Drops Sharply, Missing Forecasts
Japan’s household spending for April 2025 disappointed across the board. Year-on-year, spending slipped by 0.1%, well below the projected +1.4% and March’s +2.1%. On a monthly basis, the decline was steeper—down 1.8% against expectations of a -0.8% drop. March’s figure was +0.4%.
Japan Eases Push for Full Tariff Repeal, Floats Flexible Auto Proposal
Japan may be walking back its demands for a complete repeal of the U.S. auto tariff. Instead, negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is proposing a more dynamic model—where tariff reductions would be tied to metrics like U.S.-based production and exports from Japanese automakers. The proposal is being discussed during Akazawa’s current visit to Washington, where he’s meeting senior U.S. officials.
Crypto Market Pulse
Crypto Slips as Recession Worries Return; Bitcoin Holds $100K
The crypto market lost 4% Friday, dropping to $3.3 trillion as global recession fears re-emerged. Bitcoin dipped below $101,000 briefly before rebounding to $103,477. Ethereum held just above $2,470, and XRP rose slightly to $2.14 after hitting support at $2.08.
Uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and economic policy is shaking investor confidence. Elon Musk warned that U.S. debt and protectionist policies could trigger a recession, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said another market pullback could be the tipping point. Still, Bitcoin’s market dominance climbed above 64%, suggesting risk-off investors are favoring BTC over altcoins.
XRP Recovers After 9% Drop, Bulls Eye $2.50
XRP bounced back to $2.17 on Friday following a sharp 9% slide the previous day that briefly undercut the 200-day EMA. With U.S. job growth beating expectations—139,000 added in May—the rebound has legs, but technical charts show XRP remains vulnerable.
Crypto sentiment remains shaky as traders digest Trump’s escalating tariffs and their economic impact. Despite court challenges, a temporary ruling allowed the tariffs to stay in place, keeping trade nerves high. Ripple’s bullish target remains $2.50, but analysts warn of resistance if volume fades.
Metaplanet Unveils $5.4B Share Offering to Buy 210,000 BTC by 2027
Japanese tech firm Metaplanet is going all-in on Bitcoin. The company launched a 555 million share offering worth $5.4 billion to supercharge its crypto strategy—raising its BTC target from 21,000 to a staggering 210,000 by 2027, or roughly 1% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Metaplanet called the move the largest Stock Acquisition Rights deal in Japan’s capital markets history. Meanwhile, Strategy (MSTR/STRD) also expanded its STRD offering from $250 million to $1 billion. It plans to use the capital to boost its already-massive BTC holdings—currently 580,955 BTC at an average of $70,023 each. Bitcoin was trading near $104,500 on Friday.
ATOM Bounces Back From Sell-Off, Defends Key Support
After slipping nearly 5%, Cosmos (ATOM) found solid ground near $4.25 and mounted a recovery. Buyers stepped in around the 20:00 hour, with volume spiking to 1.42 million, lifting ATOM to $4.314 by session end.
A short-term uptrend formed during the 07:10–07:21 window, peaking at $4.338. Volume surges at 07:15 and 07:20 confirmed bullish momentum. The coin ended the session near its high, with support holding at $4.309.
With macro uncertainty lingering and central banks adjusting course, ATOM’s support strength could be a positive sign for broader crypto resilience.
Solana Slides Toward $140 as Bearish Pressure Builds
Solana (SOL) remains under pressure, trading close to the $140 support zone amid fading bullish interest. Despite a slight 2% uptick on Friday, sentiment is tilted bearish with signs of an extended correction.
According to Coinglass, Open Interest dropped 4.61% to $6.46 billion in the past 24 hours. Long liquidations hit $46.96 million, compared to just $3.5 million in shorts. The long-to-short ratio sits at 0.9429, reflecting bearish control.
A negative funding rate of -0.0083% confirms the skew toward bearish sentiment. If $140 breaks, the next leg lower could materialize quickly.
Meme Coins Eye Reversal as Bullish Divergence Emerges
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are showing early signs of a rebound after sharp pullbacks. Meme coin market cap dropped over 5% to $56.34 billion, but technicals now hint at possible breakouts.
Dogecoin (DOGE) climbed 3% Friday to $0.1763, rebounding from a 10% slump. A falling wedge is forming, with resistance at $0.1832 and upside targets at $0.1946 (50-day EMA) and $0.2039 (200-day EMA). Support sits at $0.1642.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) rose 3% to $0.00001238 after dropping 6.3% Thursday. It’s tracking a wedge pattern with resistance near $0.00001280. If momentum holds, targets include the 50-day EMA at $0.00001306 and the 200-day EMA at $0.00001375.
RSI divergence on both coins supports a possible breakout—if buyers follow through.
The Day’s Takeaway
United States
- Jobs Report Beats Expectations:
The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, above the 130,000 forecast. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. However, full-time employment dropped by 623,000 in the household survey, while wages rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year—higher than expected. - Fed Rate Cut Expectations Repriced:
Strong job numbers and wage growth led traders to lower odds of a July rate cut to 16.5% (from 31.4%) and September to 60.6% (from 73.9%). - Markets Rally on Labor Strength:
The Dow rose 443 points, the S&P 500 broke the 6,000 barrier, and all 11 sectors ended higher. Energy, communications, and consumer discretionary led gains. Treasury yields spiked (2-year at 4.04%, 10-year at 4.51%) on the news. - Consumer Credit Expands Sharply:
April consumer credit rose by $17.9 billion, led by increases in both revolving (+$7.7B) and non-revolving (+$10.2B) segments.
Canada
- Employment Slows Further:
May employment rose by just 8.8K jobs, slightly above forecasts, but the unemployment rate increased to 7.0% from 6.9%. The labor market is clearly softening, with CIBC noting ongoing weakness in trade-sensitive sectors and forecasting continued jobless rate increases into year-end.
Commodities
- Gold Drops but Holds Weekly Gains:
Gold fell for a second day to $3,322 (-0.84%) as the solid U.S. jobs report lifted the dollar and Treasury yields. Traders are reducing bets on Fed rate cuts, but gold is still up over 1.3% for the week, supported by geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying. - Silver Hits 13-Year High:
Silver surged to $36.00, its highest level since 2012, driven by rising industrial demand and a weaker U.S. dollar earlier in the week. It ended with a 9% weekly gain. - Oil Defies Supply Concerns, Rallies Strong:
Despite OPEC adding barrels and reports of Saudi Arabia wanting to increase output again in August, WTI crude climbed 6.5% on the week to $64.72. U.S. oil rig counts dropped by nine, reinforcing the bullish tone.
Europe
- Stocks Close Higher on Week:
European indices posted solid gains this week, with the STOXX 600 up 0.9% and Germany’s DAX and Italy’s FTSE MIB each rising 1.2%. Friday’s session was muted but positive, supported by stable U.S. jobs data and resilient Eurozone retail sales and GDP. - Germany Signals Trade Shift:
Chancellor Merz called for greater EU independence from China and warned that Trump’s tariffs are severely damaging Germany’s auto sector.
Asia
- Japan’s Economic Indicators Disappoint:
Japan’s April leading index fell to 103.4 (vs 104.1 expected), and household spending was also weak. However, full-time employment and industrial output remain somewhat stable. - China Injects Liquidity, Eyes Growth:
The PBOC made a surprise mid-month liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan to ease interbank stress. SHFE traders drove gold positioning to all-time highs even as ETFs stayed muted. - Trade Developments with Canada & U.S.:
Japanese and Chinese officials were both engaged in trade talks—with Canada focusing on fentanyl cooperation and China eyeing tariff leverage. Japan floated a flexible tariff plan for U.S. autos.
Rest of the World
- Iran Stockpiling Missile Components:
Iran ordered massive shipments of missile ingredients from China, including ammonium perchlorate. The buildup coincides with tense U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. - Australia Holds Firm on Biosecurity:
PM Anthony Albanese said Australia will not ease biosecurity standards in trade talks with the U.S., reinforcing its stance despite pressure from Washington.
Crypto
- Bitcoin Rebounds, Still Under Pressure:
BTC held above $100K after dipping earlier in the week, ending near $103,500. Traders remain cautious amid tariff tensions and slowing macro data. - Ethereum & XRP Consolidate:
ETH traded near $2,474 while XRP recovered to $2.17, both showing early signs of bullish momentum within wedge patterns. - Meme Coins See Bullish Divergence:
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu posted modest gains after steep drops. Falling wedge patterns and RSI divergence hint at possible weekend breakouts. - Metaplanet and Strategy Double Down on Bitcoin:
Metaplanet launched a $5.4B share offering to target 210,000 BTC by 2027. Strategy increased its STRD stock sale to $1B, aiming to expand its 580,955 BTC holdings.
