US Equity Close: Afternoon Dip Gets Bought as Markets Digest Earnings
North American equity markets closed mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite managing modest gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 lagged.
Closing Market Performance:
S&P 500: +0.3%
Nasdaq Composite: +0.5%
Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.3%
Russell 2000: -0.5%
Amazon Reports Solid Q4, But Soft Guidance Pressures Stock
Amazon ($AMZN) delivered a strong Q4 performance, but shares dropped 6% after hours as Q1 sales guidance came in below expectations.
Key Q4 Results:
Net sales: $187.8 billion (+10% YoY), slightly above the $187.3 billion estimate
Operating income: $21.2 billion (vs. $13.2 billion in Q4 2023)
Net income: $20.0 billion, or $1.86 per share (vs. $1.00 per share YoY)
AWS sales: $28.8 billion (+19% YoY), with operating income rising to $10.6 billion
Q1 2025 Guidance Disappoints:
Expected net sales: $151–$155.5 billion (vs. $158 billion expected)
Operating income forecast: $14–$18 billion (vs. $15.3 billion in Q1 2024)
While Amazon saw record holiday sales and continued growth in AWS, investors reacted to softer-than-expected Q1 guidance, which points to slowing revenue growth in early 2025.
Pinterest & Cloudflare Earnings – Mixed Reactions
Pinterest ($PINS):
Q4 revenue: $1.15 billion (beat $1.14B estimate)
Adj. EBITDA: $470.9 million (beat $444.6M estimate, 41% margin)
Net income: $1.85 billion
Adj. net income: $385.6 million (missed $451.1M estimate)
Despite a revenue beat, Pinterest’s lower-than-expected adjusted net income could temper investor enthusiasm.
Cloudflare ($NET):
Q4 revenue: $459.9 million (beat $452.1M estimate)
Net loss: $12.8 million (better than the expected $64.7M loss)
EPS: -$0.04 (missed $0.18 estimate)
Operating loss: $34.7 million (narrower than expected)
Cloudflare’s revenue exceeded estimates, but weaker-than-expected EPS and continued operating losses may weigh on sentiment.
Market Outlook: What’s Next?
With earnings season in full swing, investors are focusing on forward guidance more than past results. While Amazon’s holiday quarter was strong, its cautious Q1 outlook has raised concerns about slowing consumer spending. Meanwhile, macro uncertainty and market consolidation remain key themes as equities look for direction.
US initial jobless claims 219K versus 213K estimate
US initial jobless claims and continuing claims for the current week
Prior week initial jobless claims 207K revised to 208K
Initial jobless claims 219K vs 213K estimate
4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 216.75 versus 212.75 last week
Prior week continuing claims 1.858M revised to 1.850 million
Continuing claims for the current week 1.886Mvs 1.874M estimate
4-week MA of continuing claims 1.872M vs 1.870M last week
US January Challenger layoffs 49.79k vs 38.79k prior
Latest data released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. – 6 February 2025
Prior 38.79k
US Q4 unit labor costs prelim +3.0% vs +3.4% expected
US fourth quarter 2024 unit labor cost and productivity data
Prior was +0.8% (revised to +0.5%)
Productivity prelim +3.0% vs +1.4% expected
Prior productivity +2.2% (revised to +2.3%)
Fed’s Goolsbee: First effects of tariffs may be less important than impacts on expectations
Comments from the Chicago Fed President
Seems jobs are settling around full employment
Appearance that inflation process has stalled is largely due to base effects
View of the economy is full employment, ongoing growth and inflation likely to fall to 2%
Added uncertainty makes the environment for the Fed foggier, a reason to slow the pace of cuts
Would watch PPI and listen to industrial contacts in monitoring tariff effects
Treasury’s Bessent: We do want the dollar to be strong
Comments from the Treasury Secretary
Treasury staff have not tried to block federal payments
DOGE programs are an important audit of the government
We want to have the best policies to create the conditions for a strong dollar
China is the most-imbalanced economy in the history of the world
China is trying to export their way out of a depression
Says won’t talk about currency manipulators until April report
As it becomes apparent that the President’s agenda is working, we will see a great deal of non-inflationary growth
I don’t see any change in Treasury issuance in the foreseeable future
What if inflation actually goes down
I’m not sure where this narrative about tariffs being inflationary comes from
Goldman Sachs dismisses bubble concerns over US equity market dominance
Goldman Sachs dismisses bubble concerns
Goldman Sachs has pushed back against concerns that the dominance of the US equity market, particularly within the technology sector and among a handful of leading companies, signals the formation of a financial bubble.
In its latest market commentary, the investment bank argued that the current strength of US equities is not driven by speculative excess or irrational exuberance. Instead, Goldman Sachs attributes the sustained outperformance to solid underlying fundamentals. “The dominance of the US equity market, technology sector, and leading companies does not represent a bubble based on irrational exuberance but is rather a reflection of superior fundamentals,” the bank stated.
Goldman highlighted factors such as robust earnings growth, strong balance sheets, and sustained innovation within key sectors as critical drivers of market performance. The bank also pointed to the competitive advantages enjoyed by leading firms, including technological leadership, scalability, and global reach, as reasons for their continued strength.
While acknowledging the high valuations in certain parts of the market, Goldman Sachs maintains that these are justified given the growth potential and resilience of the companies involved.
Fed’s Jefferson says happy to keep Fed Funds on hold at current rate
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson:
need to look at the totality of the net effect of the Trump administration’s influence on policy goals
happy to keep policy at the current level of restrictiveness until there is a better sense of the totality of impacts
even if the rate was 100bp lower it’d still be restrictive
this allows us to be patient and wait to see the net effect of policy changes
Gold Prices Retreat as Market Awaits Key Jobs Data
Gold prices took a step back on Thursday, weighed down by a stronger US dollar and cautious market sentiment ahead of the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report. With traders locking in profits, the precious metal slipped 0.38% to $2,852 per ounce, pausing its recent upward momentum.
Market Sentiment Turns Cautious
Investor anxiety crept into the markets as US equity indices dipped, reflecting broader concerns about economic uncertainty. The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China further dampened risk appetite, while a rise in US jobless claims hinted at potential cracks in the labor market. The Labor Department reported that 219,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending February 1, exceeding expectations of 213,000. However, analysts largely dismissed the data, attributing distortions to severe weather conditions and wildfires in Los Angeles.
Fed Policy and Gold’s Struggle for Momentum
Gold also faced headwinds from dovish remarks by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. While he acknowledged the Fed is in a strong position to implement rate cuts, he emphasized the need for a measured approach due to ongoing policy uncertainties in Washington. This cautious stance kept gold under pressure, preventing it from capitalizing on broader economic concerns.
Dollar Strength and Market Expectations
The US Dollar Index (DXY) held minor gains, inching up 0.06% to 107.68, adding further resistance to gold’s upside potential. Meanwhile, traders are keeping a close eye on the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report, expected to show a slowdown from 256K to 170K jobs in January. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain steady at 4.1%.
With money markets currently pricing in 47.5 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, gold’s next move will likely hinge on how the labor market data shapes future monetary policy expectations.
EU gas prices strengthen – ING
European natural gas prices saw renewed strength yesterday with TTF settling almost 2.7% higher on the day. Forecasts for colder weather have raised concerns that we will see steeper draws in gas storage in the coming days, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.
A pullback in gas prices is due
“Speculators also appear to remain supportive towards the market current gas prices leave us deep in with the latest positioning data showing that investment funds increased their net long by 5TWh over the last reporting week to 283TWh. However, with the investment fund long making up more than 31% of total open interest, the position is starting to look a bit stretched.”
“In addition, current gas prices leave us deep in the gas-to-coal switching range for the power generation sector, while LNG cargoes should continue to be diverted towards Europe, with European prices trading at a premium to Asia through until the end of the summer. This all suggests we could be due a pullback in the absence of any surprises.”
“The latest positioning data also shows that speculators increased their net long yet again in EU allowances (EUAs). Investment funds increased their net long by 2.5k contracts over the week to 55.57k contracts – the largest net long held since September 2021. EUA prices have moved significantly higher this year, breaking above EUR80/t, supported by the strength seen in European gas prices. However, demand may provide resistance further ahead, particularly if we see an escalation in trade tensions.”
Saudis boost official selling prices – ING
The oil market sold off yesterday despite US President Trump’s directive to increase economic pressure on Iran, which would include targeting oil exports from the country. Instead, the market focused on the tariff story, a theme likely to dictate sentiment for much of this year. In addition, the EIA’s weekly inventory report was fairly bearish with a large increase in crude oil stocks over the last week, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.
Cold weather boosts distillate demand
“EIA data showed that commercial US crude oil inventories increased by 8.66m barrels over the last week, the largest build since February 2024. The increase was driven by strong imports, which grew by 467k b/d WoW with stronger flows from Canada, which increased 347k b/d. In addition, oil output recovered last week, following the impact of winter storms.”
“Crude oil output in the Lower 48 is estimated to have grown by 232k b/d. Refiners also increased their utilisation rates by 2.4pp over the week, which saw gasoline inventories rising by 2.23m barrels. However, distillate stocks fell by 5.47m barrels over the week. Cold weather boosted distillate demand, with implied demand hitting its highest level since early 2022.”
“So far today, oil prices are holding up better as Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling prices for all grades and to all regions for March loadings. This ties in with the strength that we have seen in the Middle East physical market since the start of the year. Aramco’s flagship Arab Light into Asia was increased by US$2.40/bbl to US$3.90/bbl over the benchmark – the highest level since December 2023. It is also the largest monthly increase since August 2022.”
Eurozone December retail sales -0.2% vs -0.1% m/m expected
Latest data released by Eurostat – 6 February 2025
Prior +0.1%; revised to 0.0%
The fall on the month stems from a decline in retail sales for food, drinks, and tobacco (-0.7%). That is offset by increases in sales for non-food products (+0.3%) and automotive fuel (+0.2%).
UK January construction PMI 48.1 vs 53.4 expected
Latest data released by S&P Global – 6 February 2025
Prior 53.3
S&P Global notes that:
“UK construction output fell for the first time in nearly a year as gloomy economic prospects, elevated borrowing costs and weak client confidence resulted in subdued workloads.Output levels decreased across the board in January, with particularly sharp reductions seen in the residential and civil engineering categories.“
“Construction firms noted the fastest fall in residential work for 12 months as market conditions remained somewhat subdued. Anecdotal evidence suggested that caution regarding demand for new projects was prevalent at the start of 2025, despite strong policy support for house building and hopes for a longer-term boost to supply via planning reform.“
“The forward-looking survey indicators were also relatively downbeat in January. New orders decreased at the fastest pace since November 2023 amid many reports of delayed decision-making by clients. Reduced workloads, combined with concerns about the general UK economic outlook, led to a dip in business activity expectations to the lowest for 15 months.“
“There was little respite on the supply front, as transport delays meant that vendor lead times lengthened to the greatest extent for two years. Demand for construction items softened again in January, but purchase price inflation was the highest since April 2023 as suppliers sought to pass on rising energy, fuel and wage costs.”
Germany December industrial orders +6.9% vs +2.0% m/m expected
Latest data released by Destatis – 6 February 2025
Prior -5.4%; revised to -5.2%
Switzerland January seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 2.7% vs 2.7% expected
Latest data released by the Federal Statistics Office – 6 February 2025
Prior 2.6%; revised to 2.7%
BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 4.50%, as expected
The BOE announces its February 2025 monetary policy decision
Prior 4.75%
Bank rate vote 9-0 vs 8-1 expected (Dhingra and Mann actually voted in favour of a 50 bps rate cut*)
Domestic inflationary pressures are moderating, but they remain somewhat elevated
Will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures
GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle of this year
There has been sufficient progress on disinflation in domestic prices and wages
A gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate
Will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence
Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long
Will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting
GDP estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Q4 2024 (previously 0.0%)
GDP estimated to rise by just 0.1% in Q1 2025
CPI in one year’s time time seen at 3.0% (previously 2.7%)
CPI in two years’ time seen at 2.3% (previously 2.2%)
CPI in three years’ time seen at 1.9% (previously 1.8%)
BOE governor Bailey: We expect to be able to cut the bank rate further
Bailey comments in his press conference
We will have to judge meeting by meeting how far and how fast
The road ahead will have bumps
There’s still a continued, gradual easing of underlying inflation pressures
Coming rise in inflation is almost entirely due to factors not directly linked to pressures in the economy
We expect these factors to be temporary
We now expect GDP to be notably weaker in the near-term, before picking up in the middle of the year
Consumers are more price-conscious and holding back on spending
The disinflationary process has been slow too
It is unclear what form of global trade policies will take
The judgement we have to make in future meetings is whether underlying inflation pressures are easing enough to allow for further rate cuts
We must also proceed carefully, judging the evidence afresh at each meeting
The bank rate is not on a pre-set path
BOE governor Bailey: I don’t use the word “stagflation”
Q&A session time
We continue to use “gradual” because we continue to have to see the disinflation process take place
We added the word “careful” deliberately
Around that, there is greater uncertainty that we face in the current environment
That uncertainty is both domestic and global
The uncertainty explains why we paired “gradual” with “careful”
We’ve had a flat economy after the pickup in the earlier stages of last year
But our policy actions are anchored on the view that the disinflation process is in place
Inflation is expected to pick up but only in the short-term (Ramsden)
Movement in UK bond yields largely follows the US market
Says “stagflation” doesn’t have a precise meaning
Asked about Mann’s surprise vote today
There is no groupthink on the policy committee
Mann will be speaking in the near future and explain her position in much more detail
I would not overinterpret any other moves in voting purpose
It is more important that the view on the rate path is based on economic fundamentals
We think that the path for disinflation remains in place
ECB’s Cipollone: There is still room for adjusting rates downward
Remarks by ECB executive board member, Piero Cipollone
Inflation is almost reaching the target
Economic fundamentals not significantly different from December projections
Rate cuts are coherent with declining inflation picture
No recession seen, soft landing is still the main scenario
US tariffs on China could force Beijing to dump goods on Europe
China says willing to resolve trade issues through dialogue and consultation
Remarks by the China commerce ministry
China willing to work together to respond to challenges on trade protectionism
China won’t proactively provoke trade disputes
Will take necessary measures against unilateral bullying and resolutely defend its rights
JP Morgan maintains view that US-China tariff war likely to escalate, all the way to 60%
JPM says that while the path ahead remains highly unpredictable, its baseline remains that Trump’s tariffs on China will rise to 60%
JP Morgan has reaffirmed its baseline assumption that the United States will raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%, signalling expectations of further escalation in the ongoing trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
In its latest assessment, the investment bank stated that while it continues to anticipate an intensification of tariff measures, the outlook remains clouded by considerable uncertainty. “We maintain the view that the tariff war between China and the US is more likely to escalate from here,” JP Morgan noted, adding that the key unknowns lie in the timing, pace, and magnitude of any future tariff increases.
The bank highlighted that geopolitical tensions, domestic political developments in both countries, and the broader global economic landscape will play critical roles in shaping the next phase of the tariff dispute. Despite the expectation of further measures, JP Morgan cautioned that the path ahead remains highly unpredictable, with potential shifts depending on diplomatic negotiations and shifts in economic policy priorities on both sides.
JP Morgan see a much weaker Chinese yuan due to Trump tariffs, PBoC to step in
People’s Bank of China will allow the yuan to weaken, but not too much
JP Morgan cite concerns over Trump’s extra tariff impost on China.
Says USD/CNH to rise at least 1% higher from its January closing level.
analysts at the bank expect the People’s Bank of China will step in to prevent the spot rate rising above 7.4
PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1691 (vs. estimate at 7.2535)
PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.
Australian December trade surplus comes in below estimate
Import jump
Australian Trade Balance (MoM) (Dec) 5,085mn
expected 7,000mn, prior 6,792mn
Imports (MoM) (Dec) +5.9%
prior +1.4%
surge in imports of capital equipment, oil products and consumption goods
Exports (MoM) (Dec) +1.1%
prior +4.2%
gains in iron ore exports
Ex-RBA official Australia’s weak economy, sticky CPI, trade uncertainty risk to soft landing
Below-potential growth, sticky inflation, and global trade shocks to complicate path to soft landing
Info via Bloomberg. Reporting on a view from Nick Stenner,l formerly a Senior Economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia and now Head of Australia & NZ Economics at Bank of America in Sydney.
“The Australian economy has so far tracked the RBA’s narrow path to a soft landing, but we expect below-potential growth, sticky inflation, and global trade shocks to complicate the final descent”
BoA expect just 3 RBA interest cuts in 2025, terminal rate of 3.6%
Citing sticky inflation, fiscal spending, tight labour market
Bloomberg is gated, adding a little more from BoA, in brief:
“We expect sticky inflation around the top of the target band will lead to a shallow cycle relative to peer economies and consensus.”
The RBA target band is, in a nutshell, 2 to 3%.
“Risks are skewed towards higher rates,”
forecasts three interest-rate cuts this year
terminal rate of 3.6%
BOJ’s Tamura makes his case again for faster interest rate hikes
Bank of Japan Board Member, Tamura Naoki at a meeting with local leaders in Nagano
Worried that sharp rises in rice prices, coupled with inflation exceeding 2% lasting for nearly three years, could hurt consumption.
Output gap may already effectively be in positive territory as supply constraints put upward pressure on prices.
Corporate and household inflation expectations are heightening, having roughly reached levels around 2%.
Upward price risks are building up.
The BOJ must raise rates to levels deemed neutral on a nominal basis, which is at least around 1%.
The BOJ must raise rates at least to around 1% in the latter half of fiscal 2025.
The BOJ must raise rates in several stages in a timely fashion while scrutinising what the appropriate short-term rate level could be for the economy.
Even if BOJ hikes rates to 0.75%, real interest rates will remain deeply negative.
Personally don’t think we can say BOJ’s past massive monetary easing had a positive effect as a whole given strong side-effects.
Must scrutinise whether prolonged monetary easing could cause problems such as excessive yen falls and housing price spikes.
Bank of Japan shouldn’t persist in achieving 2.0% inflation per se, as long as Japan is experiencing moderate price rises
Can expect this year’s Spring wage talks to result in wage increases consistent with our 2% inflation target
BOJ’s Tamura: The pace of rate hikes may not necessarily be once every half a year
Further remarks by Tamura
Not focusing on the fact that policy rate hasn’t touched 0.75% in the past 30 years
Will raise interest rates in stages in line with likelihood of achieving inflation target
Will decide whether inflation target is achieved from various indicators
Will try to find where the neutral rate should be while examining how the economy responds to rate hikes
Not saying that neutral rate should be 1%
Upward risks for prices is gradually increasing
No preset idea about the pace of rate hikes
Japan’s finance minister Kato sees inflation pressure continuing to rise
Japan finance minister Kato
Japan finance minister Kato speaking in parliament:
sees inflationary conditions as prices rise further
XRP, Bitcoin & Cryptos – North American Market Wrap
XRP Eyes 18% Rally Amid SEC Shake-Up and Bullish Metrics
XRP could be on the verge of a major rebound as regulatory shifts and strong on-chain activity signal potential upside. The SEC is scaling back its crypto enforcement division, reassigning more than 50 lawyers and staff members—a move seen as the first significant regulatory pullback on digital assets. Ripple’s CTO Stuart Alderoty remains optimistic about a positive resolution in the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, further fueling bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Recovers Above $98K as Whales Accumulate
Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to reclaim the $98,000 level after experiencing a 5% dip over the past two days. A potential catalyst for this recovery is Eric Trump’s endorsement of adding BTC to World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a family-backed crypto platform. Additionally, Santiment data shows that Bitcoin whales have been accumulating more BTC during the recent downturn, while retail traders face liquidations—often a sign of a market bottom and a potential rally ahead.
Crypto Market Consolidates Amid Broader Weakness
Despite Bitcoin’s recovery, the broader cryptocurrency market remains in a consolidation phase, currently sitting at $3.3 trillion in market capitalization. The market previously stabilized near $3.5 trillion and, just two weeks ago, hovered around $3.8 trillion, indicating a gradual correction. With BTC showing signs of strength, investors are watching closely to see if this marks the beginning of a broader crypto recovery.
XRP is showing signs of a potential rebound despite recent losses, as changes within the SEC and strong on-chain activity could pave the way for a recovery. After dropping nearly 3% on Thursday to $2.3482, the cryptocurrency is down 25% over the past week but remains above the critical $2 mark.
SEC Restructuring Sparks Optimism
In a surprising move, the SEC is reportedly scaling back its crypto enforcement division, reassigning more than 50 lawyers and staff members to other departments. According to a New York Times report, this marks the first significant step toward easing regulatory pressure on digital assets. While the SEC has not commented on the restructuring, the shift is being seen as a positive signal for the crypto industry, potentially reducing legal headwinds for XRP.
Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer, Stuart Alderoty, has expressed optimism about the outcome of the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit, further fueling speculation of a favorable resolution for XRP.
On-Chain Data Signals Potential Rebound
Beyond regulatory shifts, XRP’s on-chain activity suggests the potential for a strong recovery. Santiment data shows traders realized $124.92 million in losses on February 5, which historically indicates that selling pressure may be subsiding. Additionally, daily active addresses remain above 2024’s average, and the total number of XRP holders continues to rise—both key indicators of growing network strength.
While the SEC’s appeal and other legal uncertainties have weighed on XRP’s price, these latest developments could help shift momentum in favor of the bulls. If positive sentiment continues to build, XRP may be poised for an 18% rally in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin to Hit US$500K by 2028 – forecast by Standard Chartered
Citing institutional inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and a fall in volatility
Standard Charted forecast:
year-end 2025 price target US$200,000
2026 target US300,000
Bitcoin to $500,000 before Trump leaves office
Citing:
increased investor access the Trump administration
institutional inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs
diminishing volatility as the U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) market matures
a hedge against issues plaguing traditional finance
Gold retreated 0.38% to $2,852 as traders locked in gains ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could inject volatility into markets.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reinforced a cautious monetary policy stance, keeping gold under pressure.
US jobless claims rose to 219K, exceeding forecasts and signaling labor market softening.
XRP Shows Recovery Potential Amid SEC Shake-Up
The SEC’s crypto enforcement division is being scaled back, seen as a regulatory pullback that may benefit XRP and the broader crypto market.
On-chain data shows traders realizing $124.92M in losses, historically a sign of market bottoming.
XRP remains above the $2 level despite recent selling pressure, with bullish sentiment growing on improving regulatory outlook.
Bitcoin Rebounds Above $98K as Whales Accumulate
Eric Trump’s support for BTC in World Liberty Financial’s (WLFI) crypto portfolio may be helping sentiment.
Bitcoin whales are accumulating BTC while retail traders face liquidations, a sign of potential upside ahead.
The crypto market remains in consolidation, with total market capitalization at $3.3 trillion, down from $3.8 trillion two weeks ago.
Amazon Shares Drop on Soft Q1 Guidance Despite Strong Q4
Q4 sales came in at $187.8B, slightly exceeding expectations, while AWS revenue grew 19% YoY.
Q1 2025 guidance disappointed, with revenue projected at $151–$155.5B vs. the $158B expected, leading to a 6% drop in after-hours trading.
Investors remain cautious about slowing consumer spending despite record holiday shopping performance.
Oil Market Focuses on Tariffs & Saudi Price Hikes
Despite President Trump’s push to increase pressure on Iran, markets were more focused on tariff developments, keeping oil under pressure.
US crude inventories surged by 8.66M barrels, driven by strong Canadian imports and higher refinery utilization.
Saudi Arabia raised official selling prices (OSPs) for March, with Arab Light to Asia up $2.40/bbl, supporting oil prices.
EU Gas Prices Surge Amid Cold Weather & Strong Fund Positioning
European gas prices rose 2.7% as forecasts predict colder weather, fueling concerns over storage drawdowns.
Speculators increased net long positions, though high investment fund exposure may signal a potential price pullback ahead.
EU carbon allowances (EUAs) surged past €80/t, but trade tensions could limit further upside.
Final Thoughts: Markets remain on edge with gold, crypto, and equities reacting to economic data and shifting regulatory landscapes. Oil and gas markets are driven by geopolitical risks and weather trends, while investors are closely watching corporate earnings for guidance on economic resilience.
