Daily Market Roundup

North America News

Tech and Small Caps Lead the Charge as Wall Street Powers Higher

U.S. equities climbed across the board Tuesday, with the Dow advancing 214.16 points to 42,519.64, the Nasdaq surging 156.34 points to 19,398.94, and the S&P 500 tacking on 34.43 points to close at 5,970.37. The session marked another show of strength for risk assets, particularly small-cap and semiconductor names, which found new legs after an encouraging read on the labor market.

A slow open gave way to a solid rally by mid-morning, spurred by a stronger-than-expected JOLTS report. April job openings came in at 7.391 million, a clear jump from March’s upwardly revised 7.20 million and well above the 7.10 million estimate. That rekindled optimism about underlying economic growth, even as global forecasts dimmed elsewhere — notably the OECD trimming its U.S. GDP outlook for 2025 to 1.6%, down from 2.2%.

Despite Elon Musk calling the major spending proposal on the table a “disgusting abomination,” his commentary failed to derail the broader rally, which was lifted by momentum flows and renewed appetite for cyclical exposure.

The information technology sector led the way with a 1.5% gain, thanks largely to NVIDIA’s 3% advance to $141.44. The semiconductor-heavy Philadelphia SOX Index rose 2.6%. Energy (+1.1%), materials (+1.0%), and industrials (+0.8%) followed, reflecting a pro-cyclical tilt.

The Russell 2000 posted the biggest move among the major averages, climbing 1.6%, backed by gains in regional banks and energy stocks. Breadth was firmly positive, with advancers outpacing decliners more than two-to-one on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. However, volume remained below trend.

Bond yields were little changed. The 10-year Treasury note held steady at 4.46%, while the 30-year bond edged down two basis points to 4.98%.

Year-to-date index performance:

• S&P 500: +1.5%
• Nasdaq: +0.5%
• Dow Jones: -0.05%
• S&P 400: -2.8%
• Russell 2000: -5.7%

Economic Data Recap:

• Factory Orders (April): -3.7% m/m (prior revised to +3.4% from +4.3%)
• Orders ex-transport: -0.5% m/m (flat from March)
• JOLTS (April): 7.391M openings (March revised up from 7.192M to 7.20M)

JOLTS Job Openings Jump in April, Surprising to the Upside

The U.S. labor market showed a surprising lift in April, with job openings rising to 7.391 million, topping expectations of 7.100 million. This follows a revised March figure of 7.20 million.

• Quits rate: fell slightly to 2.0% from 2.1%
• Layoffs: edged up to 1.1% from 1.0%
• Hires rate: ticked up to 3.5% from 3.4%

The rebound comes despite market jitters tied to the Liberation Day fears in April, putting the labor market back near its lowest range of the past two years but showing resilience under pressure.

U.S. Factory Orders Slide Sharply in April

Factory orders in the U.S. dropped 3.7% in April, worse than the -3.1% expected. That marks a steep reversal from March’s upwardly revised gain of 4.3%.

Key breakdowns:

• Orders excluding transportation: -0.5% (vs -0.4% prior)
• Durable goods orders: -6.3% (confirmed)
• Durables ex-transport: -0.5%
• Durables ex-defense: -7.5%
• Non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft: -1.5% (vs -1.3% prelim)

These figures reflect weakening demand in the industrial sector as higher rates and trade disruptions weigh on investment decisions.

White House Reiterates Trade Offer Deadline for Wednesday

The White House has confirmed reports that it has requested formal trade proposals from partner nations by Wednesday.

The letter reportedly included requests for tariff revisions, purchase quotas for U.S. goods, and action on non-tariff barriers. While it’s not clear if retaliation is imminent, officials say the letter acts more as a progress audit than a final demand.

Separately, a Trump-Xi phone call is expected “very soon,” as trade negotiations intensify.

Fed’s Goolsbee: We will have to wait and see if tariffs have a big or small impact

• Comments from the Chicago Fed President

• Could see direct effect of tariffs on prices within a month
• Slowdown related to tariffs might not show up for a while in the data

Fed’s Cook: Monetary policy is well-positioned for a range of goals

• Comments from the Fed Governor

• Says she is committed to keeping longer-term inflation expectations in check
• She will balance Fed goals as part of mon pol deliberations
• Says she anticipates economic growth will slow this year
• Sees evidence that trade policy is now affecting the economy
• Trade policy may make it harder to get inflation lower

Fed’s Bostic: Best monetary policy approach now is ‘patience’

• Comments from the Atlanta Fed President

• “I am in no hurry to adjust our policy stance”
• Still sees path to one rate cut this year, depending on economy
• It’s a tough call to say if the Fed would be cutting rates absent the uncertainty
• It’s unclear how tariffs will affect inflation
• Job market broadly healthy, some signs of weakness
• Core prices ‘still an issue’

Meta Inks Deal to Buy Nuclear Power from Constellation

Meta Platforms has signed an agreement to purchase electricity from a nuclear plant operated by Constellation Energy Corp. in Illinois, Bloomberg reports.

The deal could lead to the construction of a new nuclear reactor at the facility, driven by the energy needs of Meta’s artificial intelligence infrastructure. Nuclear power has seen a resurgence in demand since 2022, spurred by geopolitical shocks and AI-driven data center expansion.

Click here for the full article

Commodities News

Gold Retreats from Monday’s Highs as Dollar Strengthens on JOLTS Surprise

Gold prices slid over 1% on Tuesday, dropping to $3,348 as the U.S. Dollar reclaimed ground on the back of strong labor data. The JOLTS report revealed 7.391 million job openings in April — beating expectations and revising March higher to 7.20 million. The tight labor backdrop reawakened expectations of a more hawkish Fed stance and bolstered Treasury yields.

The precious metal had gained sharply Monday amid trade tensions and geopolitical volatility, but Tuesday’s developments shifted sentiment. Rising yields and a stronger DXY (up 0.52% to 99.22) pressured non-interest-bearing assets like gold.

Bond market response:

• 10-year Treasury yield: up 2 bps to 4.462%
• Real 10-year yield: up 2 bps to 2.132%

Traders are now eyeing Wednesday’s ADP report and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls for more clues on the Fed’s path. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic echoed a measured tone, suggesting just one rate cut is likely this year and urging “patience” as the central bank assesses evolving conditions.

Meanwhile, the trade narrative remains volatile. President Trump has reiterated plans to double tariffs on metals beginning June 4, and hinted at further trade pressure unless partners revise their offers. A potential call between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping is reportedly in the works, which could inject some clarity — or more confusion — depending on its outcome.

Despite today’s dip, some traders still see upside for gold in the medium term if trade tensions and inflation risks escalate.

WTI Crude Ends Higher Despite Iran Talks Pressure

Crude oil closed up for a second straight day, with WTI gaining $0.89 to settle at $63.41. The price had pulled back from earlier highs after reports of U.S. overtures to Iran over nuclear discussions dampened momentum.

That said, crude still marked its highest close since May 13. Technically, the price is approaching a possible inverted head-and-shoulders neckline, which if broken could trigger a rally targeting the $73 level.

Silver Pulls Back But Holds Key Support at $34.00

Silver prices retreated on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, pausing Monday’s bullish surge. The metal found support at the $34.00 mark, with resistance seen between $34.75 and $35.00.

• Support levels: $34.00, followed by $33.70 and $32.65–$32.75
• Resistance zone: $34.75–$35.00, then $35.40 and $37.00 (Fibonacci extension targets)

Despite the short-term pullback, the broader trend remains upward with technicals showing resilience.

OPEC+ Hikes Production Again, But Oil Still Climbs

OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in July — the third straight monthly increase. The rise was more modest than some had feared, pushing oil prices higher despite the added supply.

Commerzbank notes:

• Half of voluntary cuts now reversed
• Saudi Arabia pushed for larger hikes
• Russia and others preferred a pause

Despite higher output, strong summer demand and low U.S. inventories are keeping Brent oil between $63 and $67. However, Commerzbank warns of oversupply risks later in the year, particularly if output continues to rise into autumn.

ING: Gold Rallies as Trade Fears and Conflict Stoke Haven Demand

ING analysts say gold’s latest rally is being fueled by renewed trade friction and worsening geopolitical risks. Prices surged 2.8% on Monday to over $3,380/oz after a 2% loss last week.

China and the U.S. have exchanged accusations of trade agreement violations, and Trump’s decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum added fuel to the fire. Simultaneously, the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified, with both sides launching major strikes.

These overlapping crises are restoring gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Chinese Gold Demand Surges in April

Swiss customs and Hong Kong trade data show a sharp rebound in Chinese gold imports during April, per Commerzbank.

• Switzerland to China: 17.4 tons (11-month high)
• Hong Kong to China: 58.6 tons (over a year high)
• China net imports from HK: 43.5 tons

With prices in China running as much as $50/oz higher than global benchmarks, import activity spiked. ETF demand in China also rose sharply in April, reversing the weak trends of Q1.

Gold and Silver Rally as Investors Seek Shelter

Gold surged 2.8% to $3,380/oz on Monday, according to Commerzbank, marking its highest level in over three weeks. Silver followed with a 5% jump to $34.80.

Market drivers:

• Fresh tariff risks
• Rising geopolitical tensions
• Weakening U.S. economic data
• Drop in USD

Platinum and palladium lagged the rally. Platinum slipped back below its recent two-year high, while palladium hovered just under $1,000/oz.

ING: Oil Strength Persists Despite Production Hike

Oil extended gains Monday, with ICE Brent hitting $65.76/bbl. According to ING, the rise reflects a combination of limited supply increases from OPEC+, seasonal demand, and a weakening dollar.

Brent’s prompt time spread widened to over $0.70/bbl — a sign of tight spot market conditions.

Canada’s wildfires also played a role. Roughly 350,000 barrels per day of production has been halted, narrowing the WCS-WTI spread. ING expects prices to stay firm into summer before weakening in Q4 as surplus builds.

Gold Shipped Back to Switzerland as COMEX Inventories Fall

April saw a reversal in gold trade flows between Switzerland and the U.S. — just 12.7 tons were shipped to the U.S., while 63 tons went the other way, Commerzbank reports.

This shift followed a large build-up in COMEX inventories in Q1 amid tariff uncertainty. With gold now excluded from the latest tariff rounds, U.S. stockpiles are being drawn down, and physical metal is heading back to Europe.

U.S. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Stir Volatility in Metals Markets

Commerzbank reports that the U.S. decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% has sharply increased price volatility in base metals.

• U.S. Aluminum premium: up 45%, reaching $1,240/ton
• COMEX Copper: also moved higher amid fears of expanded tariffs

Globally, metal prices initially dipped before rebounding. The U.S.–China trade mood has soured again, and the EU has warned it may impose countermeasures, raising fears of an escalating tariff war.

Trump to Lift Federal Ban on Drilling in Alaskan Wilderness

According to a New York Times report, the Trump administration plans to eliminate federal protections that currently ban drilling and mining in large parts of Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve.

The Bureau of Land Management is expected to revoke a 2024 rule, opening 11 million acres for new oil exploration. Environmental restrictions and requirements to consult Indigenous knowledge would also be rolled back under the proposed changes.

Europe News

Eurozone Inflation Falls Below ECB Target

Eurostat’s preliminary data for May shows euro area annual inflation at 1.9%, under the 2.0% forecast and down from 2.2% in April.

Core inflation also dropped:

• Core CPI: 2.4% y/y (vs. 2.5% expected), down from 2.7%

With both headline and core inflation moderating, markets expect the ECB to proceed with another rate cut later this week, as policymakers appear to have space to ease without risking a flare-up in price growth.

Switzerland Records First Monthly Deflation Since 2021

Switzerland’s consumer price index (CPI) for May dipped by 0.1% year-over-year, matching market expectations but marking the first negative inflation print since March 2021. The prior month registered flat inflation at 0.0%.

Core CPI also eased, rising just 0.5% annually, down from 0.6% previously.

This latest data underscores growing deflationary pressure in the Swiss economy, compounded by the strength of the franc. The Swiss National Bank now finds itself under growing scrutiny, as calls mount for a more accommodative stance amid weakening price momentum.

EU Denies Receiving U.S. “Best Offer” Demand on Trade

A source cited by Reuters said that the European Union had not received any formal communication from the U.S. requesting “best offers” in ongoing trade negotiations — despite public statements to the contrary from the Trump administration.

Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is still scheduled to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer later this week in Paris. For now, EU officials say they’re continuing discussions without having been presented with any new formal demands.

BoE’s Bailey: Gradual and careful remain my guides for rates

• Comments from the BoE Governor

• Key factors for May rate decision were domestic, not tariffs.
• We have not seen particular inflation surprises.
• Labour market has loosened somewhat.
• Pay growth is above levels consistent with a 2% inflation target but lower than expected in February.
• Path of slowing pay growth is intact.
• I was undecided ahead of May policy decision.
• I will not make any prediction about June rate decision.
• Path for rates remains downwards.
• How far and how quickly rates will fall is shrouded in a lot more uncertainty.
• Uncertainty reflects international situation.
• Impact of fragmented global trade is negative for global growth.
• Uncertainty will delay UK businesses investment decisions.
• Impact on prices is ambiguous.
• We are not seeing the same impact on supply chains and inflation we did in 2021.
• Business surveys are probably better guide to UK outlook than recent GDP data.
• Pattern from forward-looking surveys is not as strong for outlook as latest GDP.
• Official data showing negative productivity growth in the UK last year is a puzzle, as it is usually associated with severe recession.
• Still a very severe health warning on quality of official labour force survey data.
• How QT feeds along the yield curve is important.
• Long end of the yield curve is less important for monetary transmission than the short end.
• Large steepening of yield curve is not due to QT, but will need to consider how QT interacts with this.

BoE’s Breeden: Confident that disinflationary process is progressing at a steady pace

• Remarks by BoE deputy governor, Sarah Breeden, at the monetary policy hearing before the parliament’s Treasury Committee

• Economy moving gradually into excess supply
• Future policy decisions require certainty that inflation is on track
• Tariffs expected to have small impact on UK economy
• Slack opening up in labour market will guide policy
• Thought there was a case to cut bank rate in May even without tariffs hit

BoE’s Dhingra: Would have preferred bank rate to have followed a different path

• Comments from the BoE policymaker

• Would have preferred bank rate to have followed a different path.
• Overly restrictive policy risks supressing demand and disincentivising investment.
• Risks to inflation and growth tilted to the downside.
• Disinflation process has continued.
• All MPC agree on disinflation, I see greater downside risks.
• Supply chain data points more clearly to disinflation than noisy wage data.

BoE’s Mann says policy in the US is a contributing factor to high volatility in UK assets

• Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann

• policy in the US is a contributing factor to high volatility in UK assets
• the 10 year gilt is being impacted heavily by spillover from the US
• QT can offset some of the impact of Bank of England rate cuts on the long end
• Voted to hold rates unchanged in May as labour market not loosened as expected.
• Services price inflation above what I view as consistent with getting CPI back to target.
• My switch in vote from a 50 bps cut to a hold reflected spillover from financial market volatility.
• It’s better to make bolder moves on rates than hold for longer.
• Need to be concerned that inflation at 4% could alter wage and price setting dynamics.

EU Pushes Back on Trump’s Tariff Surge

The European Commission said it will make a strong case this week to get the U.S. to roll back newly announced 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is scheduled to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Paris at an OECD event. Additional EU–U.S. trade talks are planned for Washington as officials try to head off a deeper conflict.

Link here to the Reuters report for more detail.

UK Trade Chief Heads to Paris for Tariff Talks With U.S.

UK Trade Minister Jonathan Reynolds will meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Tuesday to hash out details of a recent trade agreement — just as new U.S. steel tariffs threaten to derail it.

Trump’s planned tariff hike to 50% on steel, effective this week, has triggered alarms from UK Steel and other domestic stakeholders. Reynolds’ trip to Paris and Brussels also includes discussions on broader trade frameworks with G7 partners and the EU.

Deutsche Bank Sees ECB Cutting in June, But End-Game Rate Looks Less Certain

Deutsche Bank expects the ECB to cut rates by 25bps to 2.00% on June 5, completing 200bps of easing since peak levels. But while the June cut seems likely, DB analysts now see the path to the 1.50% terminal rate as less assured.

Reasons for caution:

• Macro strength and potential defense spending may slow further easing
• September cut to 1.75% still expected if growth softens and disinflation continues
• Uncertainty rising on whether the ECB goes below 1.75% by year-end

Deutsche maintains its base case of a 1.50% terminal rate, but flags an increasingly fluid policy landscape.

Asia-Pacific & World News

China’s Top Diplomat Warns U.S. Ambassador on Ties

China’s top diplomat met with the U.S. ambassador to China and delivered a message focused on mending relations. According to Xinhua, he expressed hope that the ambassador would promote “healthy, steady, and sustainable” bilateral ties.

He criticized recent U.S. actions, calling them regrettable and harmful to China’s “legitimate interests,” and called on Washington to help restore conditions that can get the relationship “back on track.” This is believed to be a reference to U.S. restrictions on Chinese students and chip-related exports.

China’s New Lead Trade Negotiator Takes Tougher Tone

The Wall Street Journal profiled He Lifeng, China’s new top trade negotiator, describing him as a far more combative figure than his predecessor Liu He. According to officials familiar with internal discussions, He Lifeng is expected to take a hardline stance in talks with the U.S.

Officials said China feels more prepared for a prolonged standoff than it was in 2018–2019. Talks between President Trump and Xi Jinping remain tentative, with little clarity on whether a call will materialize this week.

Any potential deal could resemble the Phase One agreement from Trump’s first term, with China offering to purchase U.S. goods — but only in exchange for meaningful concessions.

U.S. Presses Vietnam to Untangle Itself from Chinese Supply Chains

According to sources cited by Reuters, the U.S. has presented Vietnam with a lengthy list of trade conditions — chief among them, a demand to reduce dependency on China.

This request is part of broader tariff negotiations and poses a challenge for Vietnam, which has carefully balanced relations with both superpowers. Talks are ongoing, but analysts expect a drawn-out process as Vietnam navigates pressure from Washington while maintaining economic ties with Beijing.

OECD Trims Global Growth Outlook as U.S. Tariffs Bite

The OECD has revised down its global GDP forecasts, citing escalating trade tensions driven by U.S. tariff hikes under President Trump.

Updated projections:

• Global GDP 2025: 2.9% (from 3.1%)
• Global GDP 2026: 2.9% (from 3.0%)
• U.S. 2025: 1.6% (from 2.2%)
• U.S. 2026: 1.5% (from 1.6%)
• Eurozone 2025 & 2026: 1.0% and 1.2% (unchanged)
• China 2025: 4.7% (from 4.8%)
• China 2026: 4.3% (unchanged)
• UK 2025 & 2026: 1.3% and 1.0% (from 1.4% and 1.2%)
• Japan 2025: 0.7% (from 1.1%)
• Japan 2026: 0.4% (from 0.2%)

The OECD’s revisions highlight the growing toll that protectionist policy is taking on global economic momentum, especially in advanced economies.

China Blasts EU Over Procurement Rules for Medical Devices

The China Chamber of Commerce to the EU has strongly criticized new EU restrictions on Chinese companies in the healthcare sector. In a statement, the group said it was “seriously concerned” about the measures and urged Brussels to reconsider the long-term implications.

The Chamber pledged to continue dialogue but emphasized that the new procurement limits could damage cooperation and market fairness.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Sinks to 48.3 — First Contraction in 8 Months

China’s factory activity slid back into contraction in May, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI falling to 48.3 — the lowest reading since September 2022 and well below the 50.7 forecast. The index had held above 50 for eight straight months prior.

Key takeaways:

• Output and new orders shrank, particularly for investment goods.
• Export orders hit a 10-month low
• Employment contracted at a faster pace
• Prices fell across the board, signaling weak demand
• Slight improvement in business confidence, largely tied to easing U.S.-China trade friction

Dr. Wang Zhe of Caixin Insight warned that current stimulus isn’t sufficient and called for more targeted measures to lift wages, job growth, and consumer spending.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1869 (vs. estimate at 7.1872)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead.
• PBOC injected 454.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.40%

Australia Lifts Minimum Wage by 3.5%, Above Inflation

Starting July 1, Australia’s minimum wage will rise from AUD 24.10 to AUD 24.94 per hour — a 3.5% hike, as confirmed by the Fair Work Commission. The adjustment benefits roughly 2.6 million workers.

The increase beats the current inflation rate of 2.4%, but falls short of the 4.5% proposed by the Australian Council of Trade Unions.

RBA Minutes: Not Yet Time to Go Expansionary, But Risks Rising

Minutes from the RBA’s May policy meeting revealed the board debated standing pat, cutting by 25bps, or even going for a 50bps move. The 25bps cut won out, but members agreed the shift was primarily cautionary, not a sign of policy pivot.

Board notes:

• Inflation progress allowed for some easing
• Domestic conditions alone justified a cut
• A 50bps cut seen as unnecessary
• Aggressive easing could backfire if reversed
• US tariffs flagged as a worsening risk for global growth
  The board concluded that it’s not yet time to flip into an expansionary setting — but should trade conditions worsen, it would be ready to move decisively.

RBA’s Hunter Warns on Tariff Fallout, Says Aussie Exporters Still Resilient

RBA Assistant Governor Marion Hunter delivered a sobering view on the implications of rising U.S. tariffs, cautioning that higher trade barriers will act as a drag on global growth and could spill into Australia’s economy.

She warned that a weaker global backdrop would likely put downward pressure on prices for imported goods, while heightened uncertainty could lead to reduced business investment, lower output, and fewer jobs.

Still, Hunter said Australia’s export sector remains well positioned to handle turbulence, and that fiscal stimulus from China could help soften the blow. Domestic resilience, particularly among key exporters, remains a source of stability.

Q1 Aussie Business Inventories Post Biggest Gain in a Year

Fresh Q1 data showed Australian business inventories jumped 0.8% quarter-over-quarter — the strongest increase since Q1 2024 — thanks to large stockpiles by miners, utilities, and manufacturers. On a yearly basis, inventories were up 0.7%.

Other highlights:

• Current account deficit widened to AUD -14.7B (vs. -13.1B expected)
• Company profits slipped 0.5% q/q (vs. +1.3% expected)
• Net exports subtracted 0.1 points from GDP
  This mix suggests that while stock buildup will lift GDP marginally, trade dynamics weighed slightly in Q1.

New Zealand Dairy Auction Index Slides Again

New Zealand’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index dropped by 1.6% in the latest auction, following a 0.9% decline in the previous event.

Whole milk powder prices were hit hardest, falling 3.7%, a signal that global demand softness is persisting into the second quarter.

New Zealand Terms of Trade Up 1.9%, Below Expectations

New Zealand’s Q1 2025 terms of trade index rose 1.9% q/q, missing the 3.6% forecast. Export prices rose 7.1%, driven by strong dairy gains, while import prices climbed 5.1%, both boosted by a weaker Kiwi dollar.

Other data:

• Export volumes: +4.6%
• Import volumes: -2.4%
• Trade-weighted NZD index: down 5.3% y/y

Stats NZ said the weaker NZD inflated both import and export prices, offsetting volume improvements in net terms.

Japan PM Ishiba May Call Snap Election if Opposition Files No-Confidence Motion

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap general election if the main opposition party proceeds with a no-confidence vote, according to local media.

An unnamed source said Ishiba told aides that he views such a move as grounds for dissolution. LDP leadership has already started preparing internally in case the motion materializes.

BOJ Under Pressure to Ease Off Bond Tapering Beyond 2026

Bond market participants are urging the Bank of Japan to either slow or pause its taper of JGB purchases beyond March 2026. Concerns center on the recent instability in long-end yields and weak liquidity.

Key points:

• Current plan: Monthly purchases to drop to ¥3 trillion by 2026
• Some want cuts to stop or slow further
• Others call for more flexibility in super-long bonds
  Despite ending negative rates, the BOJ still owns nearly half of all JGBs — underscoring how far it trails global peers in withdrawing pandemic-era support.

Former BOJ Official: Time to Pause Bond Purchase Reductions

Makoto Sakurai, a former Bank of Japan board member, said the central bank is likely to stop trimming its JGB purchases starting next fiscal year. Since last year, the BOJ has been reducing its bond buys by ¥400 billion each quarter.

But with market yields rising and volatility increasing, Sakurai said further cuts could pose risks to the economy and government debt management. The comment reflects growing pressure to reassess the pace of policy normalization.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says Japan economy moderately recovering

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is appearing in the Japanese parliament:

• Japanese economy modestly recovering despite some weakness seen
• Corporate profits are improving, with business sentiment solid
• As slowdown in overseas economy pressuring corporate profits, pace of economic growth expected to slow down
• Import prices pushing up inflation are expected to wane
• Uncertainties over overseas trade policies and economic, price situations remain extremely high
• Will continue to raise interest rates if economy, price move in line with forecasts
• Will conduct monetary policy appropriately depending on price, economic developments to achieve 2% target in a stable and sustainable manner
• Important to make judgment without any preset ideas
• Have said in outlook report that our baseline scenario could change significantly
• Will closely communicate with the government
• No preset plan for rate hikes, will raise interest rates only if economy, prices turn up again, outlooks likely to be realised
• Will review Bond taper plans at next policy meeting taking into account opinions of bond market participants
• Aware of market view some investors’ appetite for super-long JGBs have declined

• From long-term perspective, domestic investors remain key buyers of super-long JGBs
• Moves of short, medium-term JGB yields tend to have bigger impact on economy than those of super-long yields
• Volatility in super-long yields could affect short-, medium-term yields so watching market developments and their impact on economy closely
• Japan’s underlying inflation remains slightly below Bank of Japan 2% target
• Expect cost-push price pressures, such as rising rice prices, to dissipate
• Underlying inflation likely to gradually accelerate after a brief period of stagnation
• Minutes of BOJ’s meeting with bond market players showed there were only few who wanted tweak to existing bond-taper plan
• Minutes of BOJ’s meeting with bond market players showed many thought it was important for BoJ to continue tapering bond buying while striking balance between flexibility and predictability
• Minutes of BOJ’s meeting with bond market players showed there were various opinions on desirable pace of BOJ’s bond taper beyond April 2026
• US tariffs will likely affect Japan’s economy through various channels but it will probably first come via export firms
• If US tariffs hurt exporters’ profits, that could have broader impact on households, firms such as by souring consumer sentiment
• Japan’s real wages are negative, aware that is having big impact on consumption, economy
• Impact of US tariffs on Japan’s economy could have ‘somewhat negative effect’ on firms’ winter bonus payments and next year’s wage negotiations
• Wage growth may slow somewhat due to tariff impact, but likely to re-accelerate thereafter
• Consumption likely to maintain moderate uptrend as real wages gradually improve

Crypto Market Pulse

Bitcoin Slips Below $106K as ETF Outflows Signal Investor Caution

Bitcoin’s rally hit a wall early this week, sliding to $105,204 as Tuesday’s session unfolded. Despite testing support above $106,000, bearish momentum built as global economic jitters deepened and spot ETF outflows extended into a third straight session.

Monday saw $268 million flow out of Bitcoin spot ETFs, a notable break from the 10-day inflow streak that had fueled bullish sentiment through May. The outflows signal growing investor hesitancy amid a volatile trade environment and elevated uncertainty around U.S. tariffs.

According to Crypto Finance, this kind of hesitation is natural at new price highs and should be viewed as part of a healthy discovery phase. Still, the broader market appeared to take a more cautious stance, especially with BTC having recently pulled back from its all-time high near $111,980.

Ethereum offered a contrasting tone. ETH spot ETFs recorded $78 million in inflows on Monday, bringing their 11-day streak to a cumulative $3.12 billion. CoinShares’ latest report underscored Ethereum’s steady rise, noting the token has now logged its strongest 6-week inflow run since December 2024.

Key ETF Flow Stats:

• Bitcoin spot ETFs (June 3): -$268M net outflows
• Ethereum spot ETFs (June 3): +$78M net inflows
• Ethereum’s 6-week cumulative inflow: $1.19B

Ethereum continues to hold the $2,600 level, buoyed by investor interest following the recent Pectra upgrade. Technicals suggest the $3,000 target remains in sight if momentum holds.

XRP Advances as Institutional Treasury Buys Build Momentum

XRP is trading at $2.22, regaining ground after bouncing from $2.07 support. The uptick is supported by growing institutional adoption.

Key developments:

• VivoPower: Allocating $121 million to an XRP treasury reserve
• Webus International: Planning $300 million XRP-focused reserve for payments integration

Technical structure remains bullish:

• MACD: Closing in on a crossover buy signal
• RSI: Approaching midline, suggesting positive momentum

Traders are targeting $2.60, with near-term resistance at $2.35.

Classover Plans $500M Solana Treasury Push, SOL Rises

Solana (SOL) climbed 5% after Classover Holdings (KIDZ) revealed plans to issue $500 million in convertible notes to fund a SOL-based treasury reserve.

• 80% of funds to be used to buy and stake SOL
• Company already holds 6,472 SOL worth $1.05M
• Other firms like SOL Strategies and DeFi Development Corp also increasing SOL holdings

The moves come amid rising institutional interest in alternative digital assets and staking ecosystems. SOL is testing resistance at $163, with downside support at $147.

Cardano Bounces Back as Traders Position for Bullish Continuation

Cardano (ADA) rebounded off $0.65 support and is now trading near $0.69. The move comes despite fading total value locked (TVL) in DeFi, which has fallen from a May 11 peak of $415 million.

• Open interest: Up 2.2% to $831 million
• Long-to-short ratio on Binance: 2.83, favoring bulls
• Short liquidations: $394K vs $198K in long liquidations

The technical structure remains bullish, with market participants eyeing a potential move toward the $1.00 resistance.

Australia Moves to Tax Unrealized Gains, Clamps Down on Crypto ATMs

Australia will implement a 15% tax on unrealized capital gains for individuals holding more than AUD 3 million in assets, effective July 1. The policy applies to traditional assets and crypto alike.

Financial sector pushback has been swift:

• Tom Lee (Fundstrat): Called the move “insanely bad”
• David Schwartz (Ripple): Suggested loans against gains might help mitigate liquidity issues

Simultaneously, AUSTRAC has unveiled tighter rules for crypto ATMs:

• Cash transactions capped at AUD 5,000
• Mandatory ID checks and advanced monitoring
• Aimed at curbing scams that have targeted older Australians

Litecoin Set for Possible Double-Digit Decline

Litecoin (LTC) is exhibiting signs of a dead-cat bounce, with price testing resistance between $93 and $95. Traders are watching closely for a renewed leg lower.

On-chain signals:

• Profit-taking: Highest since March 24, per Santiment
• Dormant wallet activity: Rising, a historical precursor to price drops

If the pattern holds, LTC could be looking at a significant downside as selling pressure increases.

The Day’s Takeaway

United States

Stocks post solid gains, powered by tech and small caps
Wall Street extended its winning streak Tuesday, with all major indices closing in the green. The Nasdaq led, climbing 156.34 points (+0.81%) to 19,398.94, fueled by NVIDIA’s 3% rally and strength in semiconductors. The Dow added 214.16 points (+0.51%) to 42,519.64, while the S&P 500 rose 34.43 points (+0.58%) to 5,970.37. Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 jumping 1.6%. The market shrugged off negative comments from Elon Musk about the new fiscal bill, which he called a “disgusting abomination,” and instead rode a wave of growth optimism and technical momentum.

JOLTS job openings surprise to the upside
The April JOLTS report showed a jump in job openings to 7.391 million, well above the expected 7.1 million and up from March’s revised 7.20 million. The quits rate dipped to 2.0% from 2.1%, while layoffs rose slightly to 1.1%. The report signals continued labor market tightness, boosting sentiment around economic resilience.

Factory orders tumble
April factory orders fell sharply by 3.7%, worse than the expected 3.1% drop. Ex-transportation, orders declined 0.5%. Durable goods orders were confirmed at -6.3%, while nondefense capital goods ex-air dropped 1.5%. The data suggests a soft patch in business spending and manufacturing activity.

Bond yields hold steady
The 10-year Treasury yield ended unchanged at 4.46%, while the 30-year yield edged lower to 4.98% (-2 bps).

White House confirms trade offer deadline
The Trump administration sent letters to trading partners requesting their best offers on tariffs, quotas, and other trade terms by Wednesday. Despite speculation, officials say the letter is more of a check-in than a demand for final terms. A Trump–Xi call is reportedly imminent.

Commodities

Crude oil extends gains despite Iran headlines
WTI crude closed higher for the second day in a row, adding $0.89 to settle at $63.41. A brief dip during the day followed news of potential U.S. overtures to Iran on nuclear issues but didn’t derail the overall uptrend. Traders are watching for confirmation of a potential bullish technical breakout pattern targeting $73.

Gold slips over 1% after JOLTS surprise and dollar rebound
Gold fell to $3,348 after strong U.S. job openings data boosted the dollar and Treasury yields. The DXY rose 0.52% to 99.22, while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.462%. Markets are now bracing for further labor data later this week. Traders are watching to see if Trump’s tariff moves will re-ignite bullion’s safe-haven bid.

Silver retreats but holds key support
Silver pulled back after a six-month high, finding support at $34.00. While the U.S. dollar’s recovery trimmed Monday’s gains, the broader trend remains bullish with resistance near $35.00 and potential extension toward $37.00.

Asia

China’s top diplomat warns U.S. over ‘negative measures’
Chinese officials told the U.S. ambassador that recent American actions are harming China’s legitimate interests. Beijing urged Washington to reset the relationship and create conditions for restoring more stable ties. This likely refers to chip-related sanctions and visa restrictions.

Rest of the World

OECD cuts global growth forecast
The OECD lowered its global GDP forecast for 2025 to 2.9% from 3.1%, and U.S. GDP to 1.6% from 2.2%. China’s growth projection was trimmed to 4.7%, and Japan’s to 0.7%. Only the Eurozone saw its 2025 growth outlook held steady at 1.0%.

New Zealand dairy prices drop again
The latest Global Dairy Trade auction saw a 1.6% decline in the price index, after a 0.9% drop previously. Whole milk powder fell 3.7%, adding pressure to New Zealand’s agricultural export sector.

Crypto

Bitcoin dips below $106K as ETF outflows persist
Bitcoin reversed lower Tuesday, slipping to $105,204 after failing to hold above the $106K level. Spot ETFs saw their third consecutive day of net outflows, totaling $268 million on Monday. Analysts at Crypto Finance say the market is in a “price discovery” phase.

Ethereum stands firm above $2,600 with ETF inflows
Ethereum maintained strength, supported by $78 million in Monday inflows to ETH spot ETFs. CoinShares reports a six-week streak totaling $1.19 billion — the strongest since late 2024.