Daily Market Roundup

North America News

U.S. Stocks Reverse Losses to Close Higher; NASDAQ Leads With Strong Gains

U.S. equities shook off early weakness and ended the session on a high note Monday, led by a solid rebound in tech stocks. The NASDAQ staged a strong turnaround, gaining 0.67% after being down 0.67% earlier in the session.

Major index closing levels:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +35.41 points (+0.08%) to 42,305.48
• S&P 500: +24.25 points (+0.41%) to 5,935.94
• NASDAQ Composite: +128.85 points (+0.67%) to 19,242.61
• Russell 2000: +3.88 points (+0.19%) to 2,070.16

Top Gainers:

• Chewy (CHWY): +4.88% to $47.46
• Micron (MU): +3.94% to $98.18
• Meta Platforms (META): +3.65% to $671.12
• AMD (AMD): +3.54% to $114.65
• ARK Genomic Revolution (ARKG): +3.44% to $21.64
• Roblox (RBLX): +3.41% to $89.95
• SoFi Technologies (SOFI): +2.93% to $13.69
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI): +2.91% to $41.19
• Robinhood (HOOD): +2.77% to $67.98
• Broadcom (AVGO): +2.74% to $248.71

Biggest Decliners:

• First Solar (FSLR): -5.36% to $149.60
• Ford (F): -3.95% to $9.97
• General Motors (GM): -3.87% to $47.69
• Stellantis (STLA): -3.55% to $9.78
• Rivian (RIVN): -2.89% to $14.11
• Adobe (ADBE): -2.83% to $403.35
• SQQQ (ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ): -2.32% to $23.18
• Alphabet (GOOGL): -1.55% to $169.07
• Salesforce (CRM): -1.49% to $261.41
• Paramount (PARA): -1.24% to $11.95
• Tesla (TSLA): -1.09% to $342.69

Despite global tensions and tariff headlines weighing on sentiment early in the session, buyers stepped back in, particularly in growth and tech names, helping lift the broader market into the green.

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Forecast Surges to 4.6% for Q2

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now estimates 4.6% annualized growth for the second quarter of 2025, a sharp jump from 3.8% just days earlier — and the highest forecast of the year so far.

The revised forecast follows a disappointing Q1, when GDP shrank 0.2%, largely due to a massive drag from net exports (-4.9 percentage points), offset only partially by gains in private investment (+4.0 pp) and consumption (+0.8 pp). Front-loaded imports ahead of tariff hikes played a key role in the Q1 downturn, but the latest trade data shows a significant narrowing of the deficit, boosting the Q2 outlook.

With consumption recovering and trade flows stabilizing, analysts note that quarterly GDP can swing sharply when annualized, especially under volatile conditions like tariff-induced inventory shifts.

The latest GDP growth for Q2 rises to 4.6% from 3.8%. In your own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent on June 2, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 4.0 percent and 0.5 percent.

S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI Final at 52.0, Shows Solid Growth

The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 52.0, slightly below the 52.3 preliminary reading but still signaling growth, and up from 50.2 in April. This marks the best performance since February.

Highlights:

• New Orders: Strongest in 3 months, led by domestic demand. Export growth remains sluggish.
• Inventories: Input inventories surged at a record pace — the largest increase in 18 years — driven by tariff fears and supply chain anxieties.
• Output: Declined slightly for a third straight month, but firms managed backlogs effectively.
• Employment: Rose marginally after three months of declines, though hiring remains constrained by labor shortages.
• Prices: Input inflation eased but remained high. Factory gate prices increased at the fastest pace since November 2022.
• Supplier Delays: Worst since October 2022, linked to stock shortages and tariff-linked delays.
• Finished Goods: Inventories rose for the first time since November.
• Business Sentiment: Confidence hit a 3-month high, with firms expecting supply chain issues to ease over the next year.

From Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence

“The rise in the PMI during May masks worrying developments under the hood of the US manufacturing economy. While growth of new orders picked up and suppliers were reportedly busier as companies built up their inventory levels at an unprecedented rate, the common theme was a temporary surge in demand as manufacturers and their customers worry about supply issues and rising prices.

“These concerns were not without basis: supplier delays have risen to the highest since October 2022, and incidences of price hikes are at their highest since November 2022, blamed in most cases on tariffs. Smaller firms, and those in consumer facing markets, appear worst hit so far by the impact of tariffs on supply and prices.

“Encouragingly, manufacturers regained some optimism in May after sentiment had been hit hard by tariff announcements in April, partly reflecting the pauses on new levies. However, uncertainty clearly remains elevated amid the fluid tariff environment, and factories have so far shown a reluctance to expand headcounts in the face of such volatility.”

U.S. Factory Activity Slides Further in May: ISM Index Falls to 48.5

The ISM Manufacturing Index dipped to 48.5 in May, down from 48.7 in April and well below the 49.5 consensus forecast, signaling ongoing contraction in U.S. factory activity.

Key details from the report:

• Prices Paid: Slightly lower at 69.4 (prior 69.8)
• Employment: Improved to 46.8 (prior 46.5)
• New Orders: Rose to 47.6 (prior 47.2)
• Production: Jumped to 45.4 (prior 44.0)
• Supplier Deliveries: Quickened to 56.1 (prior 55.2)
• Inventories: Fell to 46.7 (prior 50.8)
• Customer Inventories: Lower at 44.5 (prior 46.2)
• Backlogs: Rebounded to 47.1 (prior 43.7)
• New Export Orders: Dropped to 40.1 (prior 43.1)
• Imports: Tumbled to 39.9 (prior 47.1)

Despite improvements in a few subcategories, weakening inventories, exports, and import activity reflect the broader impact of global trade disruptions and persistent cost pressures.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 48.5 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point lower compared to the 48.7 percent recorded in April. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 61st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fourth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.6 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the 47.2 percent recorded in April. The May reading of the Production Index (45.4 percent) is 1.4 percentage points higher than April’s figure of 44 percent. The index continued in contraction in March for the third straight month after two months of expansion preceded by eight months of contraction. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 69.4 percent, down 0.4 percentage point compared to the reading of 69.8 percent in April. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.1 percent, up 3.4 percentage points compared to the 43.7 percent recorded in April. The Employment Index registered 46.8 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from April’s figure of 46.5 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated a continued slowing of deliveries, registering 56.1 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the 55.2 percent recorded in April. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 46.7 percent, down 4.1 percentage points compared to April’s reading of 50.8 percent.

“The New Export Orders Index reading of 40.1 percent is 3 percentage points lower than the reading of 43.1 percent registered in April. The Imports Index plunged into extreme contraction in May, registering 39.9 percent, 7.2 percentage points lower than April’s reading of 47.1 percent.”

U.S. Construction Spending Falls Again in April, Misses Forecast

April’s construction spending numbers showed a deeper slump than analysts predicted, falling 0.4% month-over-month versus the expected 0.3% increase. The prior month’s figure was also revised downward, from an initial -0.5% to -0.8%.

This marks another weak print for the sector as higher interest rates, economic headwinds, and labor market uncertainty continue to weigh on the outlook. Both residential and commercial builders appear to be holding back in response to tighter financial conditions.

Trump Sets Wednesday Deadline for Countries’ Final Tariff Offers

The Trump administration is pressing fast-forward on trade negotiations, demanding that partner countries submit their “best and final offers” on tariff talks by Wednesday.

This follows the flurry of deals brokered during the high-profile week in Saudi Arabia, where progress was made on U.S.–China tariffs. But since then, momentum has stalled. Despite public assurances from White House advisors like Kevin Hassett and Peter Navarro, no new agreements have materialized in the past two weeks.

The administration now appears eager to move past the negotiating stage — and toward enforcement.

Read here for more.

Fed’s Goolsbee: So far we’ve had excellent inflation reports

• Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee (voting member) speaking

• So far we’ve had excellent inflation reports; Surprisingly little direct impact of tariffs.
• Don’t know if that will remain true in the next one – two months.
• Thinks underneath all the Tariff dirt in the air, rates can come down over 12 – 18 months
• Thinks if we can get past this bumpy period, dual mandate looks pretty good.

Fed’s Logan: Despite the uncertainty, the US economy is resilient

• Dallas Fed President Lorrie Logan speaking

• Despite the uncertainty, financial market volatility, the US economy is resilient.
• Labor market stable.
• Inflation still somewhat above target.
• Risks are balanced on both sides of the mandate.
• If tariffs change inflation expectations and that would be significant.
• Market volatility, uncertainty could cause households, businesses to pull back.
• Monetary policy well-positioned to wait, be patient.
• Well-positioned to act if risk materialized.
• Key risk is if higher short-term inflation expectations become entrenched.
• Our job is to ensure inflation doesn’t become persistent.
• Risk from tariffs is higher unemployment and higher inflation putting two Fed goals in conflict
• With oil prices down, there’s a risk of lower production, capital investment by energy companies.
• Repeats a common comment, that at all banks should be set up to use the discount window
• Healthy banks should use the discount window

J.P. Morgan Dimon: US deficit, debt is a big deal

• Speaking on Fox Business:

• US deficit, that is a “big deal”
• Bond market will have a tough time because of deficit
• US bond market spread will “gap out”.
• Markets feel complacent.

Morgan Stanley Sees 9% USD Decline by Mid-2026 on Fed Cuts

Morgan Stanley projects a significant slide in the U.S. dollar by mid-2026 — roughly 9% lower — as slowing economic growth and a forecasted 175 basis points in rate cuts weigh heavily on the greenback. The bank’s note, dated May 31, sees EUR/USD climbing to 1.25, GBP/USD rising to 1.45, and USD/JPY dipping to 130.

10-year U.S. Treasury yields are expected to peak at 4% by year-end before plunging in 2026. Morgan Stanley joins other major banks in turning bearish on the dollar amid renewed trade frictions under Trump’s administration.

Fed’s Waller says rate cuts remain possible later in 2025

• Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook:

• ‘Good news’ rate cuts remain possible later this year
• Rate cut view rests on easing inflation, tariffs on lower end of range
• Strong economy through April gives Fed time to see how trade shakes out
• Tariffs likely to create one-time price increase Fed can look through
• Considerable uncertainty still surrounds trade policy outlook
• Sees downside risk to economy, job market, upside risk to inflation
• Tariffs to be main driver of inflation this year
• Tariffs will drive up unemployment which will likely linger
• Tariff inflation impact likely greatest in second half of 2025
• says he is most attentive to market and forecaster views on inflation
• Doesn’t see real world issues with expected path of inflation
• Some of modest sized tariff regime will not be passed along
• workers don’t have much leverage to ask for raises
• workers are probably more worried about keeping their jobs than seeking pay hikes right now
• None of what drove pandemic inflation surge is in place now
• Just doesn’t see how tariffs would create persistent inflation
• Policy should look at real side of economy if inflation is close to target
• Fed is close to reaching inflation target
• Doubts a 10% tariff can get inflation up to 3%
• Markets determine long term yields
• Long term yields up in part on government fiscal worries
• Doesn’t see a problem selling government bonds
• Long term yields also up amid foreign buyer anxiety

Canadian Manufacturing Stays in Contraction Despite Slight PMI Rise

Canada’s manufacturing PMI for May ticked up to 46.1 from April’s 45.3, according to S&P Global — still well below the 50 mark, indicating continued contraction for the fourth consecutive month.

Key insights:

• Production & Orders: Declines continued. Export demand weakened more than domestic, with buyers hesitant amid tariff uncertainties.
• Inventories & Logistics: Companies cut back both input and finished goods inventories to reduce overhead. Delivery times worsened again, with customs and port congestion cited.
• Costs & Prices: Input inflation remained elevated, near March’s recent peak. Tariffs on key goods like metals and plastics are pressuring margins. Output prices rose at a slower rate.
• Employment: Job losses extended into a fourth month, the steepest cut since June 2020.
• Purchasing Activity: Reduced for a fifth straight month, consistent with lower production needs.
• Outlook: Business confidence stayed subdued. While firms hope for macroeconomic stability, trade policy uncertainty dominates the short-term outlook. U.S. trade flows remain particularly weak.

Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“With manufacturers continuing to be hit by tariffs and trade uncertainty, May saw the sector experience a further significant contraction. Although declines were softer than in April, both production and new orders again fell to noticeable degrees amid reports that market demand was weak – again largely because of tariffs.

“Moreover, the hard to predict nature of trade policies means the outlook for production remains extremely uncertain and given the recent scale of the downturn in the sector, job losses are mounting. Indeed, latest data showed the steepest decline in employment since the height of the COVID pandemic in 2020 with spare capacity and rising costs also an increasing problem for many firms.

“Unsurprisingly, tariffs remain the primary source of price pressures, whilst also leading to an intensification of supply side delays. No wonder firms therefore remained circumspect in their purchasing and inventory management decisions during May, with the survey again revealing declines in both input buying and stocks.”

BoC Expected to Hold, but Most Economists See More Cuts Coming

Seventeen out of 23 economists polled by Reuters believe the Bank of Canada will cut rates at least twice more in 2025. However, markets are only pricing in one additional cut, citing sticky inflation.

Underlying price pressures have been building since December, and some now question whether the BoC will continue easing if economic activity picks up. The central bank is widely expected to hold steady this week, but it may strike a more hawkish tone.

Commodities News

Gold Soars to 4-Week High on Tariff Fears and Russia-Ukraine Escalation

Gold prices spiked more than 2.7% on Monday, hitting their highest level in over a month as geopolitical tensions and trade war fears lit a fire under safe-haven demand. At last check, gold was trading at $3,377 per ounce, up sharply on the day.

What’s Driving the Surge:

• Renewed hostilities in the Russia-Ukraine conflict after Ukraine launched a drone assault on Russian military assets, including long-range bombers.
• Donald Trump’s tariff escalation, with U.S. duties on steel and aluminum set to jump to 50% on June 4, fueling market volatility and anti-risk flows.
• Hints of potential U.S.-China talks, but no confirmed meeting between Trump and President Xi yet.
• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s dovish tone, suggesting rate cuts are still possible later this year, despite inflation concerns.

Economic Data Highlights:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.5 (April: 48.7), the lowest reading since November.
  • Prices Paid: Held high at 69.4
  • Employment Index: Improved to 46.8 from 46.5
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.0 from April’s 52.3 but remained in expansion.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate surged from 3.8% to 4.6% for Q2, reflecting stronger economic momentum.

Markets React:

• The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped 0.72% to 98.71, aiding gold’s rally.
• 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly 6 basis points to 4.458%, while real yields tracked higher to 2.118%.

Market participants are also pricing in 51 basis points of Fed easing by year-end, as futures traders see growing room for rate cuts if global instability persists.

Gold’s rally continues to gain traction not just as a reaction to macro headlines but also due to eroding confidence in fiat stability amid aggressive fiscal and geopolitical moves.

Crude Oil Settles at $62.52 After Strong Rally

WTI crude futures jumped $1.73 on Monday, closing at $62.52 — a gain of 2.85% for the session. The day’s trading range spanned from a low of $61.55 to a high of $63.84.

The move extended into a key technical zone between $63.52 and $64.14, but failed to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2025 downtrend, which sits at $64.88. On the downside, short-term support is now stacked around $61.59 and $61.52, where the 100- and 200-hour moving averages converge.

A break below that support cluster would shift momentum back to the bears. On the flip side, clearing $64.88 would tilt the technical outlook firmly back in favor of the bulls.

Silver Soars Over 5%, Testing Yearly Highs

Silver surged more than 5% on Monday to trade at $34.65, approaching its 2023 peak of $34.86. Improved sentiment and a renewed wave of safe-haven buying drove the rally, with technical signals backing further gains.

Key levels to watch:

• Resistance: A break above $34.86 could open the door to $35.00 and then $37.49, the high from February 2012.
• Support: Initial support sits at $34.58, followed by $34.00 and deeper support at $33.69 (the May 22 peak).

The RSI points to strong momentum, while the broader technical setup favors continued upside as long as prices hold above $34.00. Traders remain focused on silver’s role as both an inflation hedge and a geopolitical risk buffer.

U.S. Tariffs Send Aluminum Premiums Soaring 25%

U.S. tariffs on aluminum are already being felt in markets, with Midwest premiums spiking nearly 25% relative to LME three-month futures, according to TDS’ Daniel Ghali.

“The surge was immediate and sharp,” Ghali said. “It reflects the tight alignment between domestic pricing and tariff expectations.”

While aluminum reacted strongly, copper’s response has been far more muted. The COMEX-LME spread only widened slightly, suggesting uncertainty remains around when — or if — tariffs on copper will be implemented. Still, TDS sees algorithmic buying resuming in copper markets soon, potentially up to 20% of maximum size.

TDS: Gold’s Positioning Signals More Upside as Macro Funds Stay on Sidelines

Gold is attracting renewed bullish flows, with CTA (commodity trading advisor) positioning alone expected to drive significant upside this week, according to TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali.

Ghali notes that gold has broken out of its April downtrend, leading to short covering and a noticeable reluctance among traders to re-establish bearish bets. However, macro funds have yet to make a meaningful move into the metal — something TDS sees as a major source of potential demand.

“Despite the narrative that gold is overcrowded, aggregate CME open interest is at historically low levels,” Ghali said. “This kind of positioning environment has consistently preceded strong forward returns.”

He emphasized that gold’s current rally is about trust — not traditional demand. With ETF selling slowing, macro funds flat, and CTA inflows accelerating, positioning alone could keep gold prices elevated. Silver is also expected to benefit from this renewed momentum.

Oil Prices Climb After OPEC+ Keeps July Hike Modest

Crude oil prices rallied after OPEC+ opted not to exceed the previously announced 411,000 barrels per day hike for July, matching May and June’s increases.

Markets had anticipated a bigger jump following media speculation, which drove prices lower on Friday. The surprise restraint sparked a bullish rebound, with prices approaching the $64 resistance zone. Buyers are watching for a breakout above that level, while sellers may lean into any move back toward $55.

Crude Oil Rallying Despite OPEC+ Supply Return, TDS Notes

Despite OPEC+ steadily adding barrels back into the global market, oil prices continue to push higher — a move that appears counterintuitive but is largely being driven by trader positioning and geopolitical dynamics, says TDS strategist Daniel Ghali.

“We still expect that the post-summer period will see a rise in Gulf exports, which will test the market’s ability to absorb additional supply,” Ghali noted.

For now, though, the market remains focused on short-term risks and technical setups. TDS expects CTAs to continue building net short positions over the coming week, with only a very narrow path available for a significant upside breakout in crude.

OPEC+ Approves July Oil Output Hike

OPEC+ will raise oil output by another 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The group, led by Saudi Arabia, continues to reverse previous voluntary cuts totaling 2.2 million bpd by eight member countries.

The move comes despite recent price weakness, with Brent futures hovering around $64 — still near a four-year low. Markets opened higher following the announcement.

Goldman Sachs Slashes 2026 Brent Forecast to $56

Goldman Sachs now sees Brent crude averaging $56 per barrel in 2026, down from earlier projections. The 2025 average remains at $60. WTI forecasts follow suit, at $56 for 2025 and $52 for 2026.

The bank also anticipates OPEC+ will implement one last output hike — 410,000 barrels per day in August — before freezing production for the rest of the year. The downgrade stems mainly from rising supply outside U.S. shale.

U.S. Senators Push 500% Tariff on Countries Importing Russian Oil

Senator Lindsey Graham, with bipartisan backing from Senator Richard Blumenthal, is pushing a new sanctions package that includes a 500% tariff on imports from nations buying Russian oil and uranium. The proposal aims to undercut Russia’s energy revenue by pressuring buyers like China and India.

Eighty-two senators now support the bill, which could shake global markets. The effort comes just ahead of the mid-June G7 summit and has received tentative backing from French President Macron.

Europe News

European Markets End Mixed as Investors Weigh Global Uncertainty

Major European stock indices closed out the session in mixed territory on Monday, reflecting investor caution amid broader economic and geopolitical concerns.

Final figures:

• Germany’s DAX: -0.28%
• France’s CAC 40: -0.19%
• UK’s FTSE 100: +0.02%
• Spain’s IBEX 35: +0.36%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.26%

While southern European indices eked out gains, broader momentum remained limited. Markets continue to digest shifting trade policies and interest rate expectations across the U.S. and Europe.

Eurozone Manufacturing Shows Tentative Recovery

The Eurozone’s final manufacturing PMI for May held steady at 49.4, matching the preliminary figure and improving on April’s 49.0.

This is part of a broader, if fragile, rebound in European manufacturing. Analysts are watching closely to see whether this growth is real or simply reflects buyers racing to place orders ahead of escalating trade barriers.

HCOB notes that:

“The upward trend in the headline PMI is still continuing, pointing towards a recovery that is progressing. That is backed up by the rise in production we have seen since March. What is especially encouraging is that production has picked up across all four major eurozone economies, which really highlights how broad-based this recovery is. With output rising for three months in a row, historical patterns suggest there is a 72% chance we will see another increase in the next month. Of course, one big risk on the horizon is the possibility of the US significantly hiking tariffs on EU imports. That could definitely cast a shadow over the outlook. Still, companies are noticeably more upbeat than they were last month about producing more a year from now, which shows a certain resilience, even in the face of potential protectionist moves from across the Atlantic.

“In May, Europe’s industrial engines seemed to be running in sync. Production rose in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, suggesting that shared factors are driving the upswing. Among them is the US tariffs, which likely prompted US buyers to place orders early. That said, France has not benefited from this trend as much as its peers. Meanwhile, lower interest rates and falling oil and gas prices are giving the entire sector some breathing room. Looking ahead, German companies are expected to outpace their European peers, thanks in large part to the new government’s expansionary fiscal policies.

“The ECB is getting some tailwinds for its expected interest rate cuts. The industrial sector has started cutting its sales prices again after two months of increases, giving the central bank some extra room to move on with its interest rate cuts. Lower energy prices, which have helped bring down input costs, are likely the main driver behind this shift.”

Germany’s Factory Slowdown Deepens in May

Germany’s final May manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 48.3—down from both the 48.8 preliminary figure and April’s 48.4.

Output and new orders weakened further, with the output index dropping to a three-month low. Lower input costs led to another fall in output prices, continuing the sector’s deflationary trend.

Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“Most people have got so used to gloomy headlines from the industrial sector that the good news often slips under the radar. That is why it is worth looking beyond the headline PMI figure, which dipped slightly and is still in contraction territory. The broader picture actually shows some encouraging signs. Production has now increased for the third month in a row, and foreign orders have been on the rise for two straight months.

“What’s more, the uptick in output is not limited to just one area – it is showing up across the board, in capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods. That is a solid sign of broad- based improvement. It is also positive that companies have barely scaled back their purchases of intermediate goods, after falls in each month since mid-2022. Most striking is perhaps that business sentiment is the most optimistic since February 2022. That likely has a lot to do with the formation of a new government, the promise of tax breaks for investment, a big infrastructure package, and plans to boost defence spending.

“Some of the recent production increase may be tied to US importers rushing to get ahead of potential new tariffs. But other factors, like expected interest rate cuts, lower energy prices, and a cyclical rebound after a downturn lasting more than two years, are probably helping too. There is a decent chance this momentum will carry on, even if things slow down a bit.

“Manufacturing workforce numbers have been falling continuously since mid-2023. With a certain delay, this has led to higher labour productivity in manufacturing, which PMI data show has been rising again since late 2024. It is likely to take a few months before a possible recovery in the manufacturing sector is reflected in higher employment levels. However, it can be assumed that the emerging trend of a slowdown in job cuts will continue for the time being.”

France’s Manufacturing PMI Beats Initial Estimate

The final reading of France’s manufacturing PMI for May landed at 49.8, slightly above the preliminary figure of 49.5 and a jump from April’s 48.7.

Though still below the growth threshold, the improvement reflects firmer demand conditions and a modest pickup in production. It’s a small but encouraging signal for the broader French economy.

HCOB notes that:

“Since 2023, France’s manufacturing sector has been in a state of contraction. This is evident in our HCOB Manufacturing PMI, which has remained consistently below the no-change threshold of 50.0 since February 2023. However, a turning point may be near. The PMI has steadily improved over the course of this year and now stands at 49.8—just shy of the expansion mark.

“Has the turnaround in demand and production already begun? There are certainly further signs of recovery. Notably, output increased for the second consecutive month in May. New orders are hovering at the edge of expansion, while foreign demand has weakened slightly faster after the respective HCOB index reached a 38-month high previously. Ongoing uncertainty stemming from the global trade conflict continues to act as a non-tariff barrier and will likely weigh on the sector in the months ahead. At the same time, European rearmament initiatives, a more accommodative monetary policy from the ECB, and efforts to reduce regulatory burdens at the EU level could help offset the negative impact of trade restrictions.

“These tailwinds are also reflected in business expectations, which have recovered significantly from their recent low towards the end of 2024. Encouragingly, the labor market in France’s manufacturing sector is also benefiting. For the first time in two years, firms are once again increasing their demand for additional staff. Unsurprisingly, better demand conditions have led to a renewed build-up of backlogs. “However, price developments remain subdued. Input prices are rising only moderately, primarily due to higher raw material costs. At the same time, intense competition among firms is putting downward pressure on output prices.”

Italy’s Factory Sector Inches Closer to Stability

Italy’s manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2 for May—just shy of the 49.6 forecast and barely changed from April’s 49.3.

Still, output saw a slight increase, snapping a 13-month stretch of contraction. Export orders edged up and supply chains improved, with shorter delivery times and declining input costs.

Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“Italy’s manufacturing sector showed further signs of stabilisation in May, with the headline PMI holding just below the neutral 50.0 mark. While it dipped marginally from April, the underlying dynamics suggest a sector cautiously emerging from a prolonged downturn. Most notably, output rose for the first time in over a year, driven by new client wins and tentative signs of demand recovery, particularly from European export markets.

“The improvement in output contrasts with continued weakness in new orders, which declined for a 14th consecutive month. However, the pace of contraction was the softest in over a year, hinting at a potential turning point. Export orders, in fact, registered their first expansion in more than two years, buoyed by stronger European demand. Still, domestic demand remains subdued, with anecdotal evidence pointing to weakness in key sectors such as autos and electronics, keeping overall order books under pressure.

“Employment continued to decline, albeit modestly, reflecting both voluntary attrition and cautious hiring decisions amid lingering uncertainty. Meanwhile, input costs fell for the first time since late 2024, thanks to lower raw material and freight prices. This easing of cost pressures, combined with stable output prices, suggests inflationary forces are receding, offering some relief to manufacturers and supporting the broader disinflation narrative across the eurozone.

“Looking ahead, the sector’s outlook is cautiously optimistic. More than half of surveyed firms expect output to rise over the next year – a trend that may be supported by a stronger euro, declining energy prices, and further monetary policy easing by the ECB. However, trade tensions remain a key risk. Prime Minister Meloni’s mid-May visit to Washington yielded no immediate tariff relief, leaving Italian exporters exposed to policy uncertainty. For now, the sector appears to be finding its footing, but the path to sustained recovery remains uneven.”

Spain’s Manufacturing Activity Back in Growth Territory

Spain’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in May, exceeding the expected 48.4 and marking the first expansion since January. The prior reading was 48.1.

The improvement was broad-based: output returned to growth, order declines slowed, hiring picked up, and business confidence showed fresh momentum.

HCOB notes that:

“Spain’s manufacturing sector sent encouraging signals in May. After three consecutive months of contraction, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI rebounded significantly, once again surpassing the growth threshold. Whether this improvement is partly attributable to early signs of easing in the global tariff conflict remains uncertain. While Spain’s direct dependence on the U.S. market is relatively limited compared to countries like Germany or Italy, indirect effects from a generally improved global trade outlook may also be contributing.

“Production momentum is gaining strength. Both demand and output showed a positive trend in May. Improved sales conditions helped revive production activity following a decline in the previous month. Although new orders continued to fall, the pace of decline suggests a stabilization. In line with this, companies slightly increased their inventories of intermediate goods—an indication that they anticipate further production expansion in the coming months.

“Price pressures are easing. Prices in the manufacturing sector declined in May, driven by a combination of falling raw material costs and still-muted demand. The drop in input prices was passed on to customers, resulting in lower output prices.

“Employment in Spain’s manufacturing sector has remained largely stable so far this year. However, the HCOB PMI signalled a slight improvement in May. Given the increase in backlogs and more optimistic business expectations, a significant deterioration in employment appears unlikely in the short term. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many firms are counting on an improving economic environment in the coming year—particularly in Europe. Monetary easing by the ECB and fiscal stimuli—such as Germany’s economic support package—could generate positive spillover effects across the eurozone. Nevertheless, the erratic trade policy of the U.S. under President Trump remains a source of uncertainty, continuing to limit global planning reliability.”

UK Manufacturing PMI Rebounds Slightly in May

The UK’s final manufacturing PMI for May rose to 46.4, up from the 45.1 preliminary figure and April’s 45.4.

While the index still signals contraction, the pace of decline slowed. Both domestic and international demand remained soft, but cost pressures continued to ease, offering manufacturers some relief on margins.

Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“May PMI data indicate that UK manufacturing faces major challenges, including turbulent market conditions, trade uncertainties, low client confidence and rising tax-related wage costs. Downturns in output, new orders and new export business have continued, and business optimism has stayed subdued by the historical standards of the survey.

“Smaller manufacturers are experiencing the sharpest pinch, registering the steepest retrenchments in output and demand and seeing their confidence slump to a near record low. Job losses are also rising across manufacturing, with the rate of decline in employment gathering pace.

“There are some signs of manufacturing turning a corner though. PMI indices tracking output and new orders have moved higher in each of the past two months, suggesting the downturn is easing, and came in better than the earlier flash estimates for May. That said, trading conditions remain turbulent both at home and abroad, making either a return to stabilisation or a sink back into deeper contraction likely during the coming months.”

UK Mortgage Approvals Dip in April; Consumer Credit Surges

UK mortgage approvals fell to 60,460 in April, missing forecasts for 63,000. March’s figure was revised to 63,600 from 64,310. Net mortgage borrowing dropped sharply by £13.7 billion to -£0.8 billion.

Despite the downturn in housing finance, consumer credit posted a solid increase of £1.6 billion—well above the £1.1 billion forecast. The annual growth rate for consumer credit rose to 6.7% from 6.2%, pointing to robust household spending.

UK House Prices Rise More Than Forecast in May

According to Nationwide’s latest report, UK house prices increased by 0.5% in May—beating the 0.1% gain that economists expected. This comes after a 0.6% monthly drop in April.

Nationwide noted that mortgage activity has held up better than expected following the end of the stamp duty holiday. Despite global economic concerns, they said the domestic conditions for UK homebuyers remain broadly supportive.

Swiss Economy Grows Faster Than Expected in Q1

Switzerland’s GDP expanded by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, beating forecasts of 0.4%. The previous quarter’s figure was revised up to 0.3% from 0.2%, according to the Federal Statistics Office.

Growth was driven by the services sector and a strong surge in exports, especially to the U.S., as firms rushed shipments ahead of potential new tariffs under the Trump administration.

Swiss Manufacturing PMI Slumps to 17-Month Low

Switzerland’s May manufacturing PMI fell to 42.1, far below the expected 46.5. April’s reading was 45.8.

This is the weakest reading since December 2023. Both output and new orders dropped sharply, with rising protectionist sentiment dragging down industry morale and forward-looking outlooks, according to the Procure report.

BOE Mann: Must consider interactions of QT and rate decisions

BOE Mann says:

• Must consider interactions of QT and rate decisions.
• QT tightening cannot perfectly offset rate cuts

EU, US Trade Chiefs to Meet Amid Tariff Threats

EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is scheduled to meet U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Greer in Paris this Wednesday. The meeting follows Trump’s threat of a 50% tariff on EU imports—temporarily paused until July 9.

Washington has already imposed a 50% tariff on European steel. The European Commission said over the weekend that it’s preparing retaliatory measures, which could be activated as early as July 14 if talks fail.

Asia-Pacific & World News

China Closed for Dragon Boat Festival

Mainland Chinese markets are closed today, June 2, for the Dragon Boat Festival. Offshore yuan (CNH) markets are expected to see thin trading. However, Hong Kong markets remain open as usual.

China’s May PMI Shows Partial Recovery But Still Below 50

China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, up from 49.0 but still below the expansion threshold. Large firms saw growth (PMI 50.7), while medium (47.5) and small enterprises (49.3) remained in contraction.

Production rose to 50.7, and new orders edged closer to 50 at 49.8. Inventory and employment indicators stayed weak.

Non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, showing mild expansion. Construction slipped to 51.0, while services ticked up to 50.2. Key growth areas included transportation and IT; real estate and capital markets underperformed. Input and selling prices continued to fall, though less steeply, while optimism remained high at 55.9.

NVIDIA Developing China-Specific AI Chip

NVIDIA is reportedly building a new AI chip — dubbed the B30 — tailored for China. The chip will allow local firms to scale up high-performance computing clusters by linking multiple units, a feature current models lack under U.S. export rules.

Companies including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance are said to be interested. NVIDIA plans to produce over 1 million B30 units in 2025, navigating U.S. restrictions that limit individual chip capabilities but not systems built from them.

Beijing Pushes Back on U.S. Trade Criticism

In a firm rebuttal to recent U.S. allegations, China’s Ministry of Commerce defended its post-Geneva trade actions, insisting that it has abided by the terms of the May 12 joint statement. Officials criticized Washington’s imposition of “discriminatory restrictive measures” and called the accusations “groundless.”

China warned that if the U.S. continues on this path, it will respond with “forceful measures” to protect its rights and interests. The ministry demanded the U.S. “correct the wrong practices” immediately.

Jamie Dimon: China Won’t Yield to U.S. Pressure on Trade

Speaking at the 2025 Reagan National Economic Forum, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon laid out a blunt warning about America’s economic positioning and global rivalry with China. He urged the U.S. to stop “the enemy within” — a reference to domestic gridlock and inefficiency across systems like permitting, regulation, immigration, and healthcare.

Dimon emphasized that global dominance isn’t guaranteed: “If we’re not the leading military and economic power in 40 years, we will lose reserve currency status. That’s a fact.”

Having just returned from China, Dimon dismissed any assumption that Beijing feels threatened. “They’re not scared,” he said. “The idea they’ll just bend to the U.S. on trade? Not happening.”

Australia Manufacturing PMI Eases But Still in Expansion

Australia’s manufacturing sector continued to grow in May, though at a slower clip. The final S&P Global PMI fell to 51.0 from 51.7 in April. Output shrank for the first time in three months, but new orders remained positive, albeit weaker.

Firms cited the national election as a possible drag on output. However, growing business confidence, rising export orders, and a solid pace of hiring point to a potential pickup ahead.

Australian Inflation Gauge Posts Sharpest Drop Since 2021

May brought a sharp decline in Australia’s inflation indicators, with the Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge dropping 0.4% — the largest monthly fall in nearly three years. On an annual basis, the gauge slowed to 2.6%, down from 3.3% in April.

Trimmed mean inflation fell 0.3% on the month, also marking the steepest drop in three years, with annual growth decelerating to 2.8%. ANZ job ads also fell 1.2% for the month, following a 0.3% dip in April.

New Zealand Markets Closed for King’s Birthday Holiday

New Zealand’s financial markets are closed today in observance of the King’s Birthday public holiday. As a result, NZD liquidity is expected to be lighter throughout the day.

BOJ notes supply, demand conditions have deteriorated markedly in super-long-term JGBs

• A couple of notes from the minutes of the BOJ’s latest bond market group meeting

• Supply and demand conditions deteriorated markedly and interest rates rose significantly
• Market participants have been particularly concerned about significant decline in liquidity
• One participant said BOJ should amend plan to accelerate pace of tapering
• But another participant said BOJ should opt for more gradual pace of tapering instead
• One member said there is no problem with BOJ maintaining current pace of tapering
• One member said BOJ should continue to reduce bond buying until pace of purchases reaches zero
• One member said amount of JGBs purchased should be reduced to ¥1-2 trillion from April 2026 onwards
• One member said it is desirable for BOJ to maintain monthly purchases of ¥3 trillion for a while

Japan’s Factory Contraction Slows in May

Japan’s manufacturing downturn eased in May, with the final Jibun Bank PMI hitting 49.4, up from April’s 48.7 and confirming the slowest rate of contraction in five months. The preliminary figure was 49.0.

While output and new orders continued to decline, the pace was softer. Optimism grew, as firms increased hiring at the fastest rate in over a year. Challenges like global demand softness and U.S. tariffs still loom, but the data hints at a potential recovery taking shape.

Japan Q1 Capital Spending Surges Past Forecasts

Japanese capital expenditure jumped 6.4% year-over-year in Q1 2025, well ahead of expectations (+3.8%). On a quarterly basis, spending was up 1.6%. Excluding software, capex rose 6.9%.

Company sales grew 4.3%, while profits were up 3.8% — below the expected 6% and down from 13.5% in Q4 2024. The data shows strong investment activity despite weaker-than-anticipated profit momentum.

Bank of Japan Sets Aside Record Provisions for JGB Losses

The Bank of Japan is bracing for higher interest rates, boosting its provisions for bond losses to 100% of transaction income for fiscal 2024 — the highest level ever recorded, surpassing the prior record of 95% in 2018.

Provisions jumped by 472.7 billion yen ($3.28 billion), compared to 922.7 billion yen in 2023. The move reflects BOJ’s effort to shield itself from potential mark-to-market losses as yields rise.

Crypto Market Pulse

Crypto Markets Enter Risk-Off Mode as War Tensions Rise

Geopolitical tensions are dragging crypto markets lower. On Monday, Bitcoin spot ETFs posted their first weekly outflow since mid-April—$157.4 million—while altcoins prepare for major token unlocks.

The trigger? A dramatic escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine launched its largest long-range drone strike to date, hitting several Russian airbases and damaging dozens of warplanes. Russia labeled the strikes as “terrorist acts.”

Key Market Impacts:

• Safe-haven flows: Gold prices are rising as traders flee risky assets.
• Bitcoin ETFs: First outflow in over a month. If it continues, Bitcoin prices could come under renewed pressure.
• Ethereum ETFs: Contrasting trend with $285.8 million in inflows last week, the strongest since February.

Altcoin Watch:
ENA, TAIKO, and NEON are each unlocking over $5 million in tokens this week. These cliff unlocks, which represent 3%–71% of current supply, may trigger localized price drops.

Large Daily Unlocks Also Incoming for:
SOL, DOGE, AVAX, SUI, DOT, NEAR, and others — though these are expected to have a milder market effect due to predictable schedules.

Volatility is expected to stay high across the board as war risks and liquidity dynamics collide in global markets.

Sui Faces Pressure After Token Unlock, Eyes $2.70 Support

Sui (SUI) has entered a new phase of selling pressure following the unlock of 58.35 million tokens—worth around $194 million—over the weekend. On Monday, the token slid more than 1.5%, continuing a bearish streak stretching across three weeks.

Currently trading near $3.30, SUI is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, with support anchored by a rising trendline from April. A break below the 100-day EMA at $3.22 could set the stage for a drop to $3.00, or even $2.71, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $5.29 to $1.92.

On the upside, resistance is seen at $3.60 and $3.80. The MACD hints at a possible bullish crossover, but unless bulls reclaim higher ground soon, the chart favors a continuation of the downtrend.

XRP Faces Potential 18% Decline as SEC Uncertainty Persists

XRP continues to trend lower, with the token trading at $2.15 on Monday, down 1.2% for the day. Technical signals and ongoing legal uncertainty are driving the bearish outlook.

With resistance at $2.70 firmly in place for nearly three months, support levels to watch include $2.0350 and $1.7600 — the latter having held for nearly six months. A drop to $1.76 would represent an 18% correction from current levels.

The RSI (39) and MACD both suggest bearish momentum. Adding to the pressure, XRP investment products saw $28 million in outflows last week, the largest among altcoins, according to CoinShares.

Meanwhile, Ripple’s lawsuit with the SEC saw a new legal filing that could further delay resolution, deepening investor caution.

Meme Coins Lose Steam: Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe Struggle

Meme coins are under pressure again, with Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) all showing signs of fading momentum.

• Dogecoin: Trading near $0.19, down nearly 14% last week. The coin sits below its 200-day EMA at $0.21. A daily close under $0.18 could open the door to a deeper correction toward $0.15.
• Shiba Inu: Closed below its 50-day EMA, increasing the risk of a double-digit drawdown.
• Pepe: Still hovering above key support at $0.0000115. A breakdown below this level may intensify the decline.

Technical indicators like RSI (39) and a bearish MACD crossover in Dogecoin suggest further downside ahead. PEPE and SHIB also face pressure as traders reduce exposure to high-beta altcoins in a cooling crypto market.

Liquidity Boom Could Fuel Crypto’s Next Big Rally

Rising global liquidity could be the spark that sets off the next major rally in crypto, according to analysts Michael Howell and Raoul Pal. Both cite policy shifts in the U.S. and China as key catalysts.

The U.S. Treasury’s drawdown of cash reserves and China’s aggressive monetary easing — including a weaker yuan — have contributed to what Howell sees as a “structural liquidity wave.” Pal adds that crypto, as a high-beta asset class, is especially sensitive to these changes.

Pal refers to this potential period of explosive growth as the “banana zone,” suggesting the total crypto market cap could more than triple to over $10 trillion by 2026 — assuming liquidity keeps rising.

Still, both warn the rally could be derailed if inflation surges or the Fed tightens prematurely. Until then, they see digital assets as poised to outperform.

Meta Shareholders Say No to Bitcoin Treasury Allocation

Meta shareholders have overwhelmingly voted against a proposal to explore holding Bitcoin as part of the company’s treasury. The idea — floated by Bitcoin advocate Ethan Peck — received just 0.08% of the vote, with nearly 5 billion shares opposing the move.

Peck, who represents the National Center for Public Policy Research and works at Strive, argued Bitcoin would help offset inflation-related value loss in Meta’s $72 billion cash reserves. He also cited BlackRock’s recommendation of a 2% Bitcoin portfolio allocation.

Despite the rejection, interest in corporate Bitcoin holdings is rising. GameStop and Sweden’s H100 recently bought Bitcoin, and MicroStrategy leads the way globally with over 580,000 BTC.

The Day’s Takeaway

United States

• Major Indices Close Higher: U.S. stocks erased early losses to end the session stronger, led by a 0.67% gain in the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 rose 0.41%, the Dow added 0.08%, and the Russell 2000 climbed 0.19%.
• Top Gainers: Tech and growth names dominated the upside. Chewy, Micron, Meta, AMD, and Broadcom all posted gains of 2.7% or more. Super Micro Computer and SoFi also saw solid buying.
• Top Losers: Weakness hit autos and select tech names. First Solar, Ford, GM, and Stellantis led the declines. Adobe, Alphabet, Salesforce, and Tesla also fell.
• Construction Spending Misses: April construction spending declined 0.4% vs. +0.3% expected. The prior month’s data was revised down to -0.8%.
• ISM Manufacturing Weaker Than Forecast: ISM manufacturing index for May dropped to 48.5 (vs. 49.5 expected). New orders and production improved slightly, but export orders and inventories fell sharply.
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final: Came in at 52.0 for May, down slightly from the 52.3 preliminary reading but still reflecting expansion.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Rises Sharply: Q2 GDP growth estimate was raised from 3.8% to 4.6%, reflecting improving trade data and expectations of stronger personal consumption.

Canada

• Manufacturing PMI Remains in Contraction: May’s reading rose slightly to 46.1 from 45.3 in April, marking the fourth straight month below 50. Output, new orders, and exports all continued to contract.
• Business Confidence Low: Employment declined at the fastest pace since mid-2020, and tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on purchasing and sentiment.
• BoC Rate Expectations Split: A Reuters poll showed 17 out of 23 economists expect at least two more cuts this year. However, the market is only pricing in one as inflation remains sticky.

Commodities

• Crude Oil Jumps 2.85%: WTI settled at $62.52 after hitting $63.84 intraday. The rally ran into technical resistance just below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $64.88. Support lies at $61.59 and $61.52.
• Crude Rally Despite OPEC+ Supply Return: TDS notes that even with increased OPEC+ output, oil climbed, possibly driven by CTA positioning and seasonal demand dynamics. Gulf exports may rise post-summer.
• Gold Surges on Risk-Off Flows: Gold jumped 2.7% to $3,377, hitting a 4-week high. Safe-haven demand was triggered by Russia-Ukraine escalation, fresh Trump tariffs, and dovish Fed commentary.
• Silver Breaks Out: Silver rose over 5%, hitting $34.65 and nearing 2023 highs. Technical resistance lies at $34.86 and $35.00, with further upside possible if momentum continues.
• Aluminum Premium Soars: U.S. tariffs caused a 25% surge in aluminum Midwest premiums, according to TDS. Meanwhile, copper remains stable as traders wait for clarity on possible tariffs.

Europe

• Markets Close Mixed:
  • Germany DAX: -0.28%
  • France CAC 40: -0.19%
  • UK FTSE 100: +0.02%
  • Spain IBEX 35: +0.36%
  • Italy FTSE MIB: -0.26%
• Sentiment remains cautious as investors assess the economic impact of Trump’s tariff moves and escalating geopolitical risk in Eastern Europe.
• Swiss Q1 GDP Beats Forecasts: Grew 0.5% vs. 0.4% expected. Strong services growth and a pre-tariff export surge to the U.S. fueled the gain.
• Swiss Manufacturing Slumps: May PMI dropped to 42.1, the lowest since late 2023. Both output and new orders fell sharply amid growing protectionism fears.
• Spain Manufacturing Returns to Growth: PMI climbed to 50.5, its first expansion since January.
• France, Italy, Germany PMIs Improve Slightly: Final PMIs for May show modest upticks, with France at 49.8, Italy at 49.2, and Germany at 48.3 — all still in contraction but moving in the right direction.

Asia

• Japan Manufacturing Shows Signs of Stabilization: Final May PMI at 49.4 was the least negative in five months. Employment grew at the fastest rate in a year, and business optimism improved.
• China PMI Mixed: May manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 from 49.0 but stayed in contraction. Non-manufacturing edged down to 50.3. Large firms drove the gains, while smaller ones lagged.

Crypto

• Meme Coins Lose Momentum: Dogecoin (-14% weekly), Shiba Inu, and Pepe all show signs of weakening. DOGE nears key $0.18 support; further declines could target $0.15.
• Liquidity Wave Could Spark Bull Run: Analysts Michael Howell and Raoul Pal see global liquidity rising, driven by U.S. Treasury outflows and China’s easing. Crypto markets could be poised for a major run if the trend continues.
• XRP Faces Pressure: XRP dropped 1.2% and could fall 18% toward $1.76 as legal uncertainties and outflows ($28 million last week) weigh on sentiment.
• SUI at Risk of Breakdown: Sui trades at $3.30 within a triangle pattern. A close below $3.22 could send it to $2.71. Resistance at $3.60 and $3.80 remains intact.
• Bitcoin ETF Outflows Begin: $157.4 million flowed out of U.S. spot ETFs — the first weekly decline since mid-April — as geopolitical risks rise.
• Ethereum ETF Inflows Accelerate: ETH funds posted $285.8 million in inflows, the strongest since February, suggesting growing investor confidence.
• Token Unlocks This Week: Ethena (ENA), Taiko (TAIKO), and Neon (NEON) set to release over $5M each in cliff unlocks. Larger linear unlocks from SOL, DOGE, AVAX, SUI, DOT, NEAR, and others could add pressure.