Daily Market Roundup

North America News

S&P 500 Logs 9-Day Winning Streak; Markets Rally on Tech Strength

U.S. equities ended the week strong, with the S&P 500 rising for the ninth straight day and all major indexes posting weekly gains.

• Friday close:
  • Dow: +564 pts (+1.39%) → 41,317.43
  • S&P: +82.54 pts (+1.47%) → 5,686.65
  • Nasdaq: +66.99 pts (+1.51%) → 17,977.73
• Weekly change:
  • Dow: +3.00%
  • S&P: +2.92%
  • Nasdaq: +3.42%
• Since April 21 lows:
  • S&P: +11.48%
  • Nasdaq: +14.61%
  • Dow: +9.22%

Earnings snapshot:

• Meta: +9.09% (beat, strong guidance)
• Microsoft: +11.08% (beat)
• Amazon: +0.52% (muted outlook)
• Apple: -1.88% (soft guidance)
• Alphabet: +1.28%, Nvidia: +3.07%, Tesla: +0.79%

U.S. Job Growth Outpaces Forecasts in April, But Revisions and Earnings Disappoint

The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, ahead of the 130,000 expected. However, previous months were revised down by a net 58,000, and earnings growth cooled.

• March payrolls (revised): 228K → 170K
• Unemployment rate: 4.2% (in line with expectations)
  • Unrounded: 4.1872% (vs. 4.1519% prior)
• Labor force participation: 62.6% (up from 62.5%)

Wage data:

• Average hourly earnings m/m: +0.2% (vs. +0.3% est. and prior)
• Average hourly earnings y/y: +3.8% (vs. +3.9% est.)
• Average weekly hours: 34.3 (vs. 34.2 est. and prior)

Job sector breakdown:

• Private payrolls: +167K (vs. 125K est.)
• Manufacturing: -1K (vs. -5K est.)
• Government jobs: +10K
• Full-time employment: +305K
• Part-time: +56K
• Household survey: +436K (vs. 201K prior)

U.S. Factory Orders Surge in March, Led by Defense and Aircraft

U.S. factory orders for March rose 4.3%, slightly below the 4.5% estimate but still a sharp acceleration from February’s 0.5% gain.

Key details:

• Ex-transportation orders: -0.2% (vs. +0.4% prior)
• Durable goods orders (final): +9.2%
  • Ex-defense: +10.5% (vs. +0.8% prior)
  • Ex-transportation: -0.2%
  • Nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft: +0.1% (up from -0.3%)

Defense-related orders and aircraft components were the primary drivers of the overall surge.

Macquarie: USD Rally Unsustainable Even if Tariffs Reversed

Analysts at Macquarie say the recent strength in the U.S. dollar is unlikely to last, even if Trump-era tariffs are rolled back.

Four main reasons cited:

1. Not just foreign governments — private capital is also exiting U.S. assets
2. Institutional trust is eroding
3. Diversification away from the dollar is already underway
4. Loss of credibility in U.S. systems and leadership makes recovery of full dollar dominance “very difficult”

Macquarie concludes the dollar may transition from a must-have reserve to one of several global currency options, including the euro.

Stephen Miller Emerges as Leading Pick for National Security Adviser

Stephen Miller, President Trump’s top policy aide and Homeland Security adviser, is now being seriously considered to step into the role of National Security Adviser (NSA), according to Axios.

• The role opened after Mike Waltz was reassigned and nominated to serve as U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio is temporarily overseeing NSA responsibilities but reportedly cannot sustain both positions long-term.
• Miller has gained internal praise for his tight leadership at the Homeland Security Council, which he’s run efficiently with a lean team—drawing favorable comparisons to the larger, more cumbersome National Security Council.

U.S. Vice President Vance: Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end any time soon

• Vance pouring cold water on the all the talk

U.S. Vice President Vance: Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end any time soon.

• up to the Russians and Ukrainians now that each side knows what the other’s terms for peace are
• its going to be up to them to come to an agreement and stop this brutal, brutal conflict
• “Its not going anywhere, Bret. It’s not going to end any time soon,”

Rubio says Ukraine and Russia positions are still a little far apart

• US Secretary of State Rubio:

• says Ukraine and Russia positions are still a little far apart
• it’s going to take a breakthrough soon on Ukraine to make this possible
• Trump have to decide how much time to dedicate to this
• Chinese want to meet and talk
• Those talks will come up soon
• Best opportunity for Iran
• Iran should not be afraid of inspectors including Americans

Canada’s PM-Elect Carney to Name Cabinet May 12, Parliament Returns May 26

Following his recent election victory, Mark Carney will announce his cabinet on May 12, with Parliament reconvening May 26 and a Throne Speech scheduled for May 27.

This is a relatively fast timeline by Canadian standards, suggesting the new government is looking to project decisiveness. Previous post-election returns have taken longer, with 45-day windows more typical.

Commodities News

Gold Slides as Jobs Data and Trade Hopes Hit Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices fell over 2.5% for the week, sliding 0.35% on Friday alone, as April’s strong U.S. jobs data and signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

• April nonfarm payrolls rose 177K, beating expectations (130K), with unemployment steady at 4.2%.
• Traders now expect fewer Fed rate cuts—three instead of four.
• Gold dropped to $3,222 after peaking at $3,269.
• A stronger labor market and optimism on trade talks led to profit-taking.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields jumped, but the Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.20% to 99.98.

Silver Nears $32.60 Amid Trade Optimism and Dollar Weakness

Silver prices edged up to $32.60 Friday during European hours as the U.S. dollar retreated and trade tensions eased.

• DXY dropped to 99.90 from 100.37.
• Improved trade sentiment boosted silver’s industrial demand outlook but reduced its appeal as a safe-haven.
• Technicals: Silver failed to hold above the 20-day EMA ($32.65) and the RSI dipped below 50, signaling weakening momentum.
• Resistance: $34.60 (Mar 28 high).
• Support: $30.90 (Apr 11 low).

ANZ: Gold Pullback Creates Buying Opportunity Toward $3,600

ANZ sees the recent gold price retreat—from $3,500 to $3,230—as a healthy correction and a buying opportunity.

• Target: $3,600/oz by year-end.
• Buy zone: $3,000–3,200/oz.
• Despite positive trade signals, macro risks remain:
  • Q1 GDP contracted 0.3% (first Q1 decline since 2022).
  • Inflation expectations rose to 6.7% amid tariff concerns.
  • Markets still price in ~100bps of Fed rate cuts.
• Q1 gold demand rose 1% YoY to 1,206 tons, highest since 2016.
  • Investment demand surged 170% YoY.
  • Central banks bought 244t.
  • Jewelry demand fell 19% due to high prices.

Goldman Sees OPEC+ Boosting Output, Lowers Oil Forecasts

Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to confirm a 0.41M BPD production hike for June—its second straight increase.

• Forecasts Brent crude to average $63 in 2025 and $58 in 2026.
• WTI crude forecast at $59 in 2025 and $55 in 2026.
• Oil traded at $58.30 Friday, down $0.95 (-1.6%) on the day and down $4.75 (-7.53%) for the week.

U.S. and Canada Rig Counts Decline Again, Offshore Activity Ticks Up

Baker Hughes reported another weekly drop in North American drilling rigs:

United States:

• Total rigs: 584 (−3)
  • Oil rigs: 479 (−4)
  • Gas rigs: 101 (+2)
  • Misc: 4 (−1)
• Down 21 rigs from this time last year
• Offshore rigs: +1 to 14 (−4 y/y)

Canada:

• Total rigs: 120 (−8)
  • Oil rigs: 74 (−7)
  • Gas rigs: 46 (−1)
• Year-over-year total unchanged

The decline in U.S. rigs suggests continued caution among drillers as prices remain under pressure.

OPEC+ Eyes 400K BPD Output Boost for June

OPEC+ is reportedly considering a 400,000 barrels per day (BPD) oil production increase for June, according to Bloomberg sources. The group advanced its meeting from May 5 to May 3 to finalize the plan. Market consensus leans toward a 411K BPD increase, signaling OPEC+ will maintain its accelerated pace of supply additions.

Palladium and Platinum Prices Edge Higher in Early Trading

Platinum group metals started the European session in positive territory:

• Palladium (XPD): $954.55/oz, up from $945.50
• Platinum (XPT): $975.00/oz, up from $967.75

Gains reflect rising industrial demand and a softening U.S. dollar, giving PGMs a modest lift at the open.

OPEC+ Meeting Pushed to Saturday Amid Internal Disagreements

A meeting between eight OPEC+ members has been rescheduled to Saturday, ahead of the main group summit set for Monday.

• Uncertainty remains about how aggressively OPEC will enforce production cuts
• Reports suggest mixed signals on Saudi Arabia’s willingness to penalize quota violators
• WTI crude slipped $0.95 to $58.31 amid speculation

Market participants are bracing for potential changes in supply policy as the group navigates falling prices and compliance issues.

Europe News

European Markets End Strong Week with Broad Gains

European equity benchmarks wrapped up the week with strong daily gains and marked their third consecutive week of advances.

Friday Closing Levels:

• Germany DAX: +2.62% (weekly +3.8%)
• France CAC 40: +2.33% (weekly +3.11%)
• UK FTSE 100: +1.17% (weekly +2.15%)
• Spain IBEX 35: +1.20% (weekly +0.68%), closing at its highest since 2008
• Italy FTSE MIB: +1.92% (weekly +2.62%)

YTD performance:

• Germany: +15.96%
• France: +5.28%
• UK: +5.18%
• Spain: +15.97%
• Italy: +12.12%

Eurozone Unemployment Ticks Up to 6.2% in March

The Eurozone’s March unemployment rate edged higher to 6.2%, matching the revised February figure and slightly exceeding the 6.1% forecast.

This rise suggests some softening in labor conditions even as industrial activity shows tentative signs of stability.

Eurozone Inflation Data Surprises with Stronger Core Reading

Eurozone April CPI came in at +2.2% y/y, in line with March and just above expectations. However, core inflation jumped to +2.7%, surpassing the +2.5% forecast.

• Prior core CPI: +2.4%
• Traders still pricing in high odds (~86%) of an ECB rate cut in June, though this data could complicate that messaging.

The ECB now faces a credibility challenge in pushing through cuts while core inflation remains far from the 2% target.

Eurozone Factory Activity Hits 32-Month High, PMI Revised Up

The final reading of the Eurozone April manufacturing PMI was revised up to 49.0, beating the 48.7 flash estimate and up from 48.6 in March.

• Output index: 51.5 (up from 50.5 in March)
• New orders and employment remain mixed, but France and Germany provided key upward momentum

This marks the strongest headline since mid-2022 and gives the sector a hopeful start to Q2.

HCOB notes that:

“A fourth consecutive increase in the HCOB PMI can be seen as a sign that the situation in the manufacturing sector is stabilising. This comes as a surprise given the many uncertainties and shocks of recent months. However, the situation remains fragile, as evidenced by the fact that the headline index remains below the threshold value of 50. Industrial activity remains highly exposed to US tariff policy, but the planned sharp increase in defence spending in the EU could help stabilise the situation in the long term. This is confirmed by the survey’s optimism gauge, which is relatively elevated when compared with the trend over the past three years.

“The near stabilisation of the industrial economy was helped by a production pick-up in both Germany and France in April, and Italy is fighting its way back into expansion territory. This may have been spurred by the fall in oil and gas prices in April, and this was underscored by a decline in input prices, which had risen in each of the three months prior. Interest rate cuts by the ECB and the prospect of further monetary easing are also likely to have been welcome news for companies.

“Manufacturers were clearly able to expand their profit margins in April, as purchasing prices fell while selling prices rose at their fastest pace in two years. This is unlikely to continue, however, as US tariff policy is likely to see Chinese goods being offered more widely in the EU, intensifying competition.”

Germany’s Manufacturing PMI Revised Higher, Outlook Still Mixed

Germany’s final April manufacturing PMI came in at 48.4, up from the 48.0 preliminary estimate and just above March’s 48.3.

• Output reached a 37-month high
• Business expectations, however, fell to their lowest level in four months, highlighting lingering caution despite the production boost

Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“With the headline PMI moving closer to the neutral 50 mark, one might think that German industry is gradually emerging from a downturn that has lasted almost three years. After all, manufacturers have expanded production for the second month in a row. It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that the road ahead will be bumpy, though. US tariffs and the associated uncertainty are going to weigh on German exporters. And it is quite possible that the expansion in production over the past two months is due to pull-forward effects in connection with the impending US tariff increases, which means that there might be a backlash in the coming months.

“Despite global headwinds, German manufacturers recorded a marginal increase in export orders for the first time in over three years. This supported a second straight monthly rise in overall order intakes. Orders from the German Bundeswehr are probably not yet playing a decisive role here, but many companies – defence contractors, but also vehicle and drone manufacturers and producers of optical equipment, for example – are likely to benefit from the planned additional defence spending in the future.

“Falling energy prices are helping German industry. The drop in oil and gas prices due to increased fears of recession in the US is reflected in lower purchase prices and is helping manufacturers to expand their profit margins. This is even more the case as sales prices rose slightly in April for the first time in nearly two years.”

France Manufacturing Sees Output Rise for First Time Since 2022

France’s April final manufacturing PMI was revised up to 48.7, slightly ahead of the 48.2 preliminary and up from March’s 48.5.

• Output increased for the first time in nearly three years
• However, employment, purchasing, and inventories all fell, showing the recovery is still fragile

HCOB notes that:

“Since the beginning of 2025, the French manufacturing PMI has shown tentative signs of recovery, with the headline index nearing the growth level and output increasing for the first time in almost three years in April. This upswing comes as a bit of a surprise, given the turbulence over the past few weeks and the darkened outlook for global trade.

“Orders from both domestic and foreign clients remain in contraction, albeit at a significantly reduced rate. This suggests potential improvements in underlying business conditions within the manufacturing sector. While US tariffs are expected to negatively impact French manufacturing and heighten uncertainty, lower interest rates from the ECB and credible EU efforts to reduce bureaucratic hurdles and massively increase defence spending could stimulate manufacturing activity. On that note, future business expectations have risen to their highest level in nearly a year. Despite this, French manufacturers continue to reduce staffing levels, although the reduction was relatively moderate. Anecdotal evidence indicates that workforce capacity was streamlined by not replacing departing employees and opting against renewing fixed-term contracts.

“Price dynamics are not a major concern. Input prices have only seen a slight increase, likely benefiting from the decline in energy prices, particularly oil and gas, driven by recession fears. Factory gate charges have decreased for the second consecutive month due to competitive pressures.

“A sub-sectoral analysis revealed no significant changes from the previous month across the consumer, intermediate, and investment goods segments. Consumer goods producers experienced a slight improvement in conditions once again, while the intermediate and investment goods sectors remained marginally below the growth threshold.”

Italy’s Factory PMI Stronger Than Forecast, Nearing Expansion

Italy’s April manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 49.3, crushing expectations for 47.0 and rebounding from 46.6 in March.

• Output nearly flat after a full year of monthly declines
• New orders showed the smallest contraction in over 12 months
• Cost pressures declined, but selling prices rose again

Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“This appears to indicate stabilisation, despite US tariff policy. After declining almost continuously since April 2024, production has now almost reached the 50 mark, signalling that production is roughly at the same level as in the previous month. The turnaround also seems to be emerging in terms of new orders, where the decline is significantly milder than in previous months. This aligns with the fact that inventories of pre-production goods were reduced only slightly.

“Given the improved survey results, growth is once again within the realm of possibility. However, after the sector has been in recession almost continuously since mid-2022, Italian industry will have to work its way out of a rather deep hole. There will still be a number of obstacles along the way, chief among them the US tariff policy and the threat of intensified competition from China, which will push even more products onto the European market than before.

“Higher tariffs and uncertainty are weighing on Italian industry, which is reflected in the below-average optimism of manufacturers. However, a more severe slump in sentiment could well have been expected. The fact that the PMI figures signal stabilisation rather than a sharp deterioration may have something to do with the fact that industry is still benefiting from some advance deals designed to circumvent higher tariffs. In addition, the defence industry is likely to see higher demand for defence equipment, which should have a knock-on effect on the entire manufacturing sector.”

Spain’s Manufacturing Sector Weakens Sharply in April

Spain’s April manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1, missing the 50.0 consensus and declining from 49.5 the previous month.

• New orders saw their steepest drop since December 2023
• Output fell modestly for the first time since August
• Business confidence also declined, pointing to uncertainty ahead

Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

“Operating conditions in Spain’s Manufacturing Sector are deteriorating. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI stays in the contraction zone for the third consecutive month and has even deteriorated compared to the previous month. This result is underpinned by a decline in output, for the first time since August 2024, and a significant deterioration in order volumes. Panellists report increased uncertainty and market instability, prompting customers to delay or cancel purchasing and investment decisions. The instability of international markets is attributed to US tariff policies and the uncertainty that accompanies it.

“The decline in sentiment has not yet impacted employment levels. For four months, the employment index has signalled little change. Given the poorer order situation and a reduction in backlogs, there is room for a deterioration in employment levels in the coming months. Against this backdrop, business expectations of Spanish manufacturers also weakened in April.

“Price dynamics in Spain’s manufacturing sector have nearly come to a halt at the start of the second quarter. Input price inflation has further weakened, as some vendors were forced to lower their prices due to weak demand. Pricing power for customer prices was also limited, attributed to high competitive pressures and discounts to attract clients.

“For the first time this year, all sub-sectors – consumer, intermediate, and investment goods – are in the contraction zone. The decline in intermediate goods was the most pronounced. Production there was cut, orders collapsed, and consequently, business expectations plummeted. The consumer goods sector also declined but performed relatively better. Despite weaker operating conditions overall, employment growth in this sector continues.”

Swiss Manufacturing Hits Fresh Lows in April

Switzerland’s April manufacturing PMI slumped to 45.8, well below the 48.6 expected and down from 48.9 in March.

• New orders collapsed, dragging overall activity lower
• Employment indicators also weakened, despite a slight pick-up in output

This marks a significant reversal for Swiss industry, which had shown signs of stabilization earlier in the year.

The breakdown:

ECBs DeGuindos: ECB can be optimistic on inflation

ECBs DeGuindos is on the wires saying:

• ECB can be optimistic on inflation
• ECB doesn’t target or exchange rate, but watches are closely
• Does not think the Eurozone will fall into a recession
• Economic risks highlighted in March is now materializing

Asia-Pacific & World News

China Says U.S. Initiated Trade Talk Effort — But Conditions Apply

China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed that Washington has reached out to reopen trade negotiations, but Beijing is still weighing its response.

• China is assessing the possibility of restarting discussions
• Officials demand the U.S. roll back what they call “unilateral tariff measures”
• Beijing claims the U.S. started the trade war and must now show genuine intent to repair relations
• The door to talks “remains open,” but not unconditionally
• A Chinese official emphasized, “Without tariff correction, there is no sincerity”

Goldman Sachs: Asian Currencies to Gain as Dollar’s Dominance Wanes

Goldman Sachs analysts expect Asian currencies to benefit from a global pivot away from the U.S. dollar, which they say remains overvalued by roughly 17%.

• The move away from the dollar has accelerated since 2022, particularly after U.S. sanctions on Russia
• Foreign central banks are increasingly seeking alternatives, including gold
• Trump-era policies and trade disruptions have fueled global distrust
• Goldman notes this dollar diversification trend has become entrenched over the last decade

Australian Retail Sales Miss in March; Wholesale Inflation Creeps Up

Australia’s retail sector showed modest growth in March, but fell short of expectations:

• Retail sales: +0.3% m/m (expected +0.4%), prior +0.2%
• Q1 2025 retail sales: Flat (0.0% q/q), down from +1.0% in Q4

Producer Price Index (PPI) data:

• Q1 PPI: +0.9% q/q, +3.7% y/y
• Outpaced consumer price inflation, hinting at upstream price pressures

Australian Election Weekend Brings Political and FX Risk

Australians head to the polls this weekend, with the result likely to have market implications for the Australian dollar.

• PM Albanese is the front-runner but may only secure a minority government
• A coalition with Greens or independents could increase fiscal spending risks
• Delay in result announcement could also unsettle markets
• Ongoing trade tensions with China add to near-term AUD volatility

New Zealand Building Permits Jump in March

New Zealand reported a sharp increase in construction activity for March:

• Building Permits: +9.6% m/m (prior +0.8%)
• Annual growth: +15.9% y/y

The surge suggests renewed momentum in residential and commercial development heading into Q2.

Japan Opposes U.S. Tariff Proposal, Says Nikkei

According to reporting from Nikkei, Japanese trade officials are resisting U.S. proposals to maintain high tariffs on key sectors like autos, steel, and aluminum.

• The U.S. plan reportedly centers on reciprocal tariffs, but with reluctance to reduce rates
• Japan insists these tariffs must be part of any serious negotiation to address trade imbalances
• Without concessions, Japanese negotiators say a deal on reducing the U.S. trade deficit will be tough to achieve

Japan Unemployment Edges Up Slightly in March

Japan’s labor market softened marginally in March:

• Unemployment rate: 2.5% (expected 2.4%, prior 2.4%)
• Jobs-to-applicant ratio: 1.26 (expected 1.25), prior 1.24

The data suggest stable but slightly cooling labor conditions as Japan navigates global economic headwinds.

Japan Finance Minister Says Yen FX Levels Not Discussed With U.S.

Finance Minister Shunichi Kato stated that Japan did not discuss specific exchange rate targets during recent meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent.

• Emphasized that FX markets should determine the yen’s value
• Japan insists it’s not engaging in currency manipulation
• Kato noted Japan’s large holdings of U.S. Treasuries are part of its FX reserve strategy, but whether they’re used in trade talks is “a different question”

Japan’s Kato: We’ll continue to ask US to reconsider tariffs

• Wall Street Journal with the report

• We’ll continue to ask US to reconsider tariffs.
• Tokyo ready to respond to Chinese import surge.
• Tokyo’s principle is FX rates should be determined by the market.
• Plaza accord 2.0 hasn’t come up for discussion with the US.

Japan’s economy minister Akazawa says no comment on specifics of tariff negotiations with Trump

• Japan economy minister Akazawa

• Negotiation lasted for 130 minutes
• Able to have thorough discussions
• Again requested review of tariffs on Japan
• No comment on specific negotiations
• Talked how Japan can expand trade, non-tariff measures, economic security with US
• Told US that tariff measures regrettable
• Did not discuss forex
• No discussions on national security
• Asked us to review tariff measures on auto parts
• Negotiation handled as a package
• National security matters different from tariff talks
• Did not talk about China during talks
• Already decided forex matters to be discussed between finance ministers
• Understand that US wanting to reach some kind of agreements within 90-day window with various countries

Japan PM Ishiba – no change to stance of requesting US cancel tariffs

• Japan Prime Minister Ishiba

• No change at all to our stance of requesting U.S. to cancel tariffs
• Not in situation where we have found common ground yet
• But received report from Akazawa that talks were forward-looking
• Reaching a deal in haste is not necessarily in the best interest

South Korea’s April Inflation Slightly Above Forecast

South Korea’s April CPI data came in just above expectations, signaling persistent inflationary pressure:

• Headline CPI: +2.1% y/y (expected +2.0%)
• Core CPI: +2.1% y/y (up from +1.9% in March)
• Monthly change: +0.1%, the slowest pace since November 2024

Despite slowing momentum, core inflation remains sticky, complicating monetary policy outlooks.

Crypto Market Pulse

Bitcoin Bulls Roar as Price Surges Toward $100K

Bitcoin is closing in on a critical resistance zone between $98,000 and $100,000, following a textbook breakout from a contracting triangle pattern.

• The E-wave bottom formed near $92,853, just above the A-wave base
• A clean breakout above $95,000 has triggered what looks like a “thrust” phase
• Current resistance: $98K–$100K
• If rejected here, possible fallback zones include $90K–$92K, with deeper risk down to $88K
• Sustained momentum could drive prices above $102K–$109K

Traders are eyeing whether this marks the start of a new leg up—or a trap near the top. Notably, Bitcoin continues to correlate with global equity indices like the S&P 500 and India’s Nifty, reflecting broader risk-on behavior.

XRP and Dogecoin Benefit from ETF Optimism and Social Buzz

Social data is showing rising optimism for XRP and Dogecoin as potential candidates for spot crypto ETFs—a development that’s fueling bullish sentiment.

• Polymarket data shows belief in an XRP ETF approval by end-2025 has jumped to 85%, from 65% two months ago
• The SEC recently delayed decisions on DOGE and XRP ETF filings until June 17
• 21Shares and Bitwise have filed DOGE ETF applications, lifting Dogecoin’s social engagement to a 3-month high, per Santiment
• Analysts cite whale accumulation and improved technicals supporting a potential breakout

DOGE is shedding its “meme coin” label while XRP shows investor confidence despite muted chatter. Other majors like Ethereum, Solana, and BNB showed more neutral social trends.

Bitcoin Hits 70-Day High as Saylor and ETFs Drive Demand

Bitcoin surged to $97,431 Friday, hitting its highest level since early March and driving total crypto market cap past $3.1 trillion.

Key catalysts:

• MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, revealed plans to raise $21 billion for more BTC buys
• Arizona passed a bill to create the first state-backed Bitcoin ETF reserve
• ETF demand and a soft labor market report added tailwinds

BTC Price Action:

• Support now holding between $95,900–$97,400
• Trading volume over $24B in the past 24 hours
• Short-term support cluster formed well above earlier resistance at $95.5K

Altcoin Moves:

• SUI (+6.2%) surged after 21Shares’ ETF filing
• StakeStone (STONE): +31%, driven by DeFi staking growth
• Vanar Chain (VANRY): +36%, following a major gaming partnership
• ETH and SOL: Modest gains (~+0.7%)
• ADA: Flat at $0.708

UK Plans Ban on Crypto-Backed Loans, Cites Systemic Risk

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has proposed a nationwide ban on loans backed by cryptocurrencies, flagging them as a threat to financial stability.

• Under the plan, crypto lending—including with stablecoins like USDT or tokens like BTC—would be prohibited
• The FCA says unregulated DeFi credit markets are “outpacing safeguards”
• The draft policy follows months of talks with the Bank of England and international regulators
• The rule is open for public comment for 90 days, with final review in Q3 2025

Market Implications:

• Ethereum, which hosts over 50% of DeFi TVL (~$52B), could lose market share
• DeFi lenders like Aave and Compound may face user exits from UK platforms
• Staking yields may drop if borrowing activity shrinks
• Institutional access to DeFi in the UK could face steep barriers

The Day’s Takeaway

Day’s Takeaway: Key Market Trends & Developments

United States

• Jobs Data Surprises: April nonfarm payrolls came in at 177K, beating estimates (130K), while unemployment held steady at 4.2%. The stronger labor market tempered expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts.
• Fed Outlook Shifts: Markets now price in three rate cuts instead of four. Treasury yields rose, but the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.20% to 99.98.
• Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to 9 sessions, rising 1.47% Friday and 2.92% for the week. Tech outperformed, led by Microsoft (+11.08%) and Meta (+9.09%).

Canada

• No major data or developments reported today. Canadian markets remain broadly influenced by U.S. macro conditions and commodity price shifts, particularly in oil and precious metals.

Commodities

• OPEC+ Plans Output Hike: OPEC+ is expected to increase June oil production by 400K–411K BPD. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude at $63 in 2025 and $58 in 2026.
• Crude Oil Drops: WTI crude fell 1.6% on the day to $58.30 and lost 7.53% for the week, pressured by rising supply expectations and slower demand growth.
• Gold Retreats: Gold fell over 2.5% on the week, trading at $3,226, down from highs of $3,269. Strong U.S. jobs data and easing trade tensions cut into safe-haven demand.
• Silver Rises: Silver rose to $32.60, supported by a weaker dollar and improved industrial demand outlook. However, technical signals point to short-term weakness.
• ANZ Bullish on Gold: Despite the pullback, ANZ sees $3,000–$3,200 as a buying zone, targeting $3,600 by year-end, citing fragile macro conditions and real rate dynamics.

Europe

• Markets Follow U.S. Lead: European equities tracked U.S. gains, helped by tech momentum and easing geopolitical tensions.
• Trade Outlook Brightens: Signs of a potential U.S.-China trade thaw boosted risk sentiment in eurozone markets, although no specific EU-level data releases stood out.

Asia

• China Opens Trade Door: China’s commerce ministry said the U.S. was open to trade talks. This lifted market sentiment and softened the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• Silver Demand Outlook: Asia, particularly China, is a major consumer of industrial silver. Hopes for a trade resolution support expectations for stronger silver use in EVs and electronics.

Rest of the World

• OPEC+ Key Focus: Broader global attention remains on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting now set for May 3. Emerging market economies are watching closely due to sensitivity to energy prices.
• Macro Uncertainty: Global investors continue to weigh inflation risks, trade policy shifts, and uneven economic growth as central banks signal varying policy paths.

Crypto

• Crypto Market Quiet: No major price movements or regulatory headlines emerged today. The broader risk-on sentiment in equities has not yet translated into significant crypto upside.
• Technical Pause: Traders appear to be in a holding pattern, awaiting clarity on monetary policy before making big moves in Bitcoin or altcoins.