📊 S&P 500 Surges on Weak Jobs Data, Fed Cut Bets Firm

• Equities: S&P 500 closed at a record 6,502 (+0.8% Dow, +1.0% Nasdaq, +1.3% Russell 2000). Weak ADP payrolls reinforced September Fed cut expectations.
• Labor Market: Challenger layoffs 85,979 (worst August since 2020). Jobless claims 237K. Goldman Sachs now sees Friday NFP at +60K, unemployment 4.3%.
• Economic Data: ISM services PMI 52.0 (6-mo high); trade deficit widened to -$78.3B. Fed’s Williams warned tariffs could add 1.5% to inflation.
• Commodities: Gold slipped 0.5% to $3,542; silver held $40.50; oil mixed on EIA data; Citi cut Brent 2026 forecast to $62/bbl.
• Crypto: Ethereum steady at $4,427 with $1.26B in institutional buys. XRP weakened on whale selling. Chainlink whales accumulated 1.25M tokens.

Alphabet Antitrust Ruling Lifts Nasdaq; Gold Hits Record High

• Equities: Nasdaq +218 to 21,498 as Alphabet surged +9% on favorable antitrust ruling. S&P 500 +0.5% (6,448), Dow –0.1% (45,271). Energy lagged (–2.3%) as oil slipped.
• Fed & Data: Waller backed September cut; Beige Book flagged flat growth and stagflation risks. JOLTS openings fell to 7.18M, factory orders –1.3%. Treasury yields eased (10Y –7 bps to 4.21%).
• Europe: BOE split on cuts; UK services PMI 54.2 beat expectations. Eurozone composite PMI hit 12-month high at 51.0. PPI +0.4% m/m.
• Asia-Pacific: Japan’s 20-yr yields hit 1999 highs; China services PMI 53.0 (15-mo high); Australia Q2 GDP +0.6% q/q on consumption.
• Markets: Gold surged to a record $3,560, silver hit $41, oil slipped despite OPEC+ boost. Ethereum held $4,470 on ETF inflows; XRP eyed $3 breakout with new payments partnership.

📉 Equities Slide on Tariff Ruling; Oil Hits 4-Week High

• Markets: S&P 500 –0.7% (6,460), Nasdaq –0.8% (21,456), Dow –0.6% (45,545). Tariffs ruled illegal by U.S. Court of Appeals, but levies remain until Oct. 14 pending SCOTUS appeal.
• Sectors & Movers: Real estate (–1.7%), industrials (–1.1%), and tech (–1.0%) lagged. Energy +0.2%. NVIDIA –1.97%, Kraft Heinz –6.9% (split), Constellation Brands –6.6% (guidance cut).
• Macro & Data: GDPNow trimmed to 3.0% Q3 (from 3.5%), ISM manufacturing 48.7 (still contracting), construction spending –0.1%. Treasury yields climbed, VIX +14% to 17.51.
• Commodities: WTI +$1.65 to $65.66 (4-week high) on tight spreads, sanctions, and OPEC+ risk. Brent near $68. EU gas +1.4% on Norwegian supply cuts; storage 78% (vs. 92% last year).
• Crypto: XRP steadied above 100-day EMA as SEC reviews ETF fast-track; Gemini filed for IPO; Ondo Finance +4% on tokenized assets expansion; Polygon broke $0.28 with strong flows.

📉 Stocks End August Lower as Tech, Semis Weigh

• Equities: S&P 500 –0.4% (6,460.26), Dow –0.2% (45,544.88), Nasdaq –0.2% (21,455.55). Tech/semi weakness led declines — NVIDIA –3.3%, Dell –8.9%, Marvell –18.6%.
• Macro & Fed: Core PCE +0.3% MoM / +2.9% YoY (in line). Fed’s Waller backed September cut; markets price 87% odds. GDPNow jumped to 3.5% Q3, but Chicago PMI slumped to 41.5.
• Consumer Pulse: Michigan sentiment fell to 58.2 (from 61.7). Inflation expectations sticky: 1y at 4.8%, 5y at 3.5%.
• Canada: Q2 GDP –1.6% annualized (vs –0.6% est.), marking back-to-back contractions. Markets see more BoC easing ahead.
• Crypto: Bitcoin tested $108,500 support; Ethereum held above $4,300. Solana broke above $200 as institutions boosted exposure; Pi Network rallied on first Pi-linked ETP launch.

📈 U.S. Stocks Close Higher; S&P 500 and Dow Hit Records, Nasdaq Nears All-Time High

• Equities: S&P 500 +0.32% to 6,501.86 (record), Dow +0.16% to 45,636.90 (record), Nasdaq +0.53% to 21,705.16 — just 8pts from all-time high. Nvidia –0.81% after earnings.
• Fed Showdown: Gov. Lisa Cook sued Trump over attempted dismissal; Friday’s court hearing could reshape Fed independence.
• Housing: U.S. pending home sales –0.4% in July (vs –0.1% est.); Redfin flagged record 15% contract cancellation rate.
• Commodities: Gold +0.43% to $3,413 (5-week high) on Fed uncertainty; WTI crude +0.70% to $64.60, holding key support.
• Crypto: Chainlink +4% on U.S. Commerce blockchain partnership; XRP steadies above $3.00; HYPE and Polkadot extend rallies.

📊 US Stocks Gain; Small Caps Lead, Fed Politics Heat Up

• Equities: Russell 2000 +0.83% outperformed; Nasdaq +0.44%, S&P +0.41%, Dow +0.30%. Industrials +1.04%, Financials +0.76% led sectors; Staples –0.46%, Real Estate –0.33% lagged.
• Macro: July durable goods –2.8% (better than –4.0% est); core +1.1%. Case-Shiller home prices –0.3% m/m, YoY slowed to +2.1%. Consumer confidence 97.4 vs 96.2 est. Richmond Fed index –7 (vs –20 prior). GDPNow Q3 trimmed to 2.2%.
• Fed & Politics: Barkin flagged labor force risks without immigration. Trump vowed “legal fight” to replace Fed Gov. Lisa Cook; Fed insists “for cause” removal protection applies.
• Treasuries: 2-yr auction strong, $69B at 3.641% (bid-to-cover 2.69x).
• Commodities: Gold steady below $3,400; resistance $3,409, support $3,268. WTI crude –2.39% to $63.25 after Trump said prices could drop < $60; broke below 100-hr MA. • Europe: Stocks sold off (CAC –1.70%, FTSE MIB –1.32%, DAX –0.50%). US pledged support for European-led Ukraine air defense shield. • Crypto: BTC rebounded >$110K after dipping $108,666; ETH >$4,400 with $444M ETF inflows. BTC ETFs +$219M inflows, total $54B. XRP stuck < $3.00.