North America News US Markets Close Mixed But End March in the Red The major US indices wrapped up the day with mixed results, but all finished March with losses. For the month, all indices fell: Looking at the first quarter of 2025, the losses continue: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Drops Sharply in March Dallas Fed Data – March 2025 The Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell to -16.3 in March, worsening from February’s -8.3 reading. Other key metrics included: Overall, the data signals weaker manufacturing conditions, with employment and capital expenditures showing significant declines. Fed’s Barkin: Its going to take a while before we get clarity on tariff impact Fed’s Williams: Its early days in figuring out impact of tariffs Goldman Sachs says 35% chance of recession (from 20%) in 12 months Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. tariff expectations sharply higher for 2025, warning that escalating trade tensions could weigh significantly on growth, inflation, and employment. In a note to clients, the bank said it now expects the average U.S. tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points next year—up from a previous baseline of 10 percentage points and in line with its earlier risk scenario. The upward revision is largely driven by the expectation that Trump will announce a sweeping “reciprocal tariff” regime averaging 15% across all U.S. trading partners on April 2. While exemptions for specific products and countries are likely, Goldman estimates the effective impact on average tariffs would still amount to a 9-point increase. In response, the firm has raised its year-end 2025 core PCE inflation forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5%, citing the inflationary impact of higher import costs. GDP growth is now projected to slow to just 1.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis, down 0.5 percentage points from prior estimates, while the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.5% by year-end. Reflecting the deteriorating outlook, Goldman has also increased its 12-month recession probability to 35%, citing weaker consumer and business sentiment and signs that policymakers may be more willing to accept near-term economic pain in pursuit of broader policy goals. With real income growth already decelerating—projected to average just 1.4% in 2025—Goldman cautions that the economy may be entering a more fragile phase, where sentiment and policy risks exert greater drag than in recent years. Commodities News Gold Hits Record High Above $3,100 Amid Trade Uncertainty Gold surged to an all-time high on Monday, surpassing $3,127 before pulling back slightly. At the time of writing, the metal trades at $3,119, up more than 1% as investors flock to its safe-haven appeal. The rally is driven by concerns over US trade policies and the potential for new tariffs on April 2, with speculation that President Trump could impose universal tariffs rather than the 10-15% previously suggested by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Trump’s cryptic response—”You’d start with all countries. So let’s see what happens”—has fueled market uncertainty. Recession Fears Grow as Goldman Sachs Raises Odds to 35% Goldman Sachs now sees a 35% chance of a US recession, up from 20%, as consumer and business sentiment weakens. Washington’s apparent tolerance for an economic slowdown has also increased concerns. Despite a 0.24% rise in the US Dollar Index (DXY) and higher Treasury yields, gold prices continue to climb. The 10-year Treasury yield has partially recovered, but safe-haven demand remains strong, keeping bullion in focus. Key Economic Data in Focus Wall Street Banks Set Higher Gold Targets Major banks have raised their gold price forecasts: Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain in play, with Trump threatening 25-50% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if Moscow refuses to cooperate on ending the Ukraine war. Oil Prices Rebound, Settling Above Key Moving Averages Crude oil prices bounced back, settling at $71.48 per barrel, a gain of $2.12 (+3.05%). The price hit a high of $71.83 and a low of $68.81 during the session. Notably, oil broke above its 100-day moving average ($70.66) and the 38.2% retracement level ($71.16) from its January 2025 high to its March 2025 low. The next major resistance stands at the 200-day moving average ($72.73), which hasn’t been breached since early February. Silver Holds Strong Above $34 Despite Market Uncertainty Silver prices remain elevated, trading at $34.02 after reaching a daily high of $34.46. Despite a minor dip, silver has gained 5% over the past four sessions. Technical levels to watch: Traders remain cautious ahead of US Liberation Day on April 2, when Trump is expected to announce 20% universal tariffs, which could impact commodities. European Natural Gas Prices Continue to Slide European natural gas prices extended their declines for a second session, dropping 4.7% week-over-week. ING analysts attribute the weakness to the end of the heating season, increasing LNG imports, and below-average storage levels. As of March 29, European gas storage stood at 33.7% full, well below the five-year average of 45% and last year’s 58.7% at this time. Oil Prices Slip as US Drilling Slows Oil prices opened lower on Monday, with Brent crude hovering around $73.50 per barrel. This comes after Trump suggested secondary tariffs on Russian oil, should a ceasefire with Ukraine fail. Drilling activity in the US has slowed: Copper Retreats as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Markets Copper prices continue to pull back from their nine-month high, weighed down by global risk-off sentiment. The upcoming US tariff announcement on April 3 is particularly bearish for industrial metals. Higher tariffs could slow global economic growth and keep inflation elevated, both of which negatively impact demand for copper and other raw materials. Weekend: Trump revoked permits and waivers allowing Western firms to operate in Venezuela Trump rescinded permits and waivers that had allowed several Western energy firms to operate in Venezuela, further tightening pressure on President Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Trump said he is annoyed with Putin, threatens ‘secondary tariffs’ on Russian oil Trump said he’s “very angry’ with Russian President Vladimir Putin and would consider imposing additional tariffs on Russian oil if a ceasefire with Ukraine isn’t achieved, according to
