Round up of today’s market news

North American News

US Indices Weighed Down by Heavyweight Losses

Market Summary
US indices struggled to maintain momentum, closing lower as declines in heavily-weighted stocks took their toll. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 409.94 points to 42,514.95, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 296.47 points to 18,276.65, and the S&P 500 declined 53.78 points to 5,797.42. The stock market faced challenges from rising Treasury yields, which dampened buy-the-dip interest among investors.

Treasury Yields Impact

• 2-Year Yield: Increased to 4.09%
• 10-Year Yield: Reached 4.255%
• The disappointing results from the 20-year bond reopening added selling pressure, contributing to a cautious trading environment.

Sector Performance
The absence of influential leadership left the market vulnerable, with notable weakness in the consumer discretionary (-1.8%), information technology (-1.7%), and communication services (-1.4%) sectors. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) fell by 1.6%.

• Key Decliners:
  • Tesla (TSLA): $213.65, -2.0%
  • Amazon.com (AMZN): $184.71, -2.6%
  • McDonald’s (MCD): $298.46, -5.2%
  • Apple (AAPL): $230.76, -2.2%
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): $139.56, -2.8%
  • Meta Platforms (META): $563.69, -3.2%
  • Alphabet (GOOG): $164.48, -1.4%

In contrast, the real estate and utilities sectors showed slight gains of 1.0% each, as investors sought defensive trades. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 6.7% to 19.41, indicating increased market uncertainty.

Market Breadth
Market breadth was notably negative, with decliners outnumbering advancers nearly 3-to-1 at both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

Year-to-Date Performance

• Nasdaq Composite: +21.8%
• S&P 500: +21.5%
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +12.9%
• S&P Midcap 400: +12.3%
• Russell 2000: +9.2%

Economic Data
Existing home sales in September fell 1.0% month-over-month, while mortgage applications dropped 6.7% week-over-week. The market remains tight, indicated by rising median home prices.

Upcoming Economic Reports

• Thursday’s Schedule:
  • 08:30 ET: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims
  • 09:45 ET: Preliminary October S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMIs
  • 10:00 ET: September New Home Sales

Earnings Reports

• Tesla (TSLA): Set to report quarterly results after the close, along with IBM, Lam Research, and others.
• IBM Earnings: Reported Q3 Adjusted EPS of $2.30, exceeding estimates, but revenue missed expectations.

Earnings Previews for October 24, 2024

• UPS: Earnings Estimate: $1.65
• AAL (American Airlines): Earnings Estimate: $0.13
• LUV (Southwest Airlines): Earnings Estimate: $0.05
• NDAQ (Nasdaq, Inc.): Earnings Estimate: $0.69
• HON (Honeywell): Earnings Estimate: $2.50
• UNP (Union Pacific): Earnings Estimate: $2.76
• KKR: Earnings Estimate: $1.20
• CARR: Earnings Estimate: $0.81
• DOW (Dow Chemical): Earnings Estimate: $0.46
• LKQ: Earnings Estimate: $0.87
• HAS (Hasbro): Earnings Estimate: $1.31
• NOC (Northrop Grumman): Earnings Estimate: $6.07
• TSCO (Tractor Supply): Earnings Estimate: $2.23
• HOG (Harley-Davidson): Earnings Estimate: $0.82
• KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper): Earnings Estimate: $0.51
• R (Ryder System): Earnings Estimate: $3.39
• TRI (Tri Pointe Homes): Earnings Estimate: $1.02
• OSIS (OSI Systems): Earnings Estimate: $1.06
• CBRE (CBRE Group): Earnings Estimate: $1.06

Earnings Update: Tesla Leads Mixed After-Hours Trading

After the close, Tesla dominated the spotlight with significant market movement following its earnings release. Shares of Tesla surged 8.15% in after-hours trading after reporting:

• EPS: $0.72 (beat expectations of $0.58)
• Revenue: $25.18B (missed expectations of $25.37B)
• Gross Margin: 19.8% (beat expectations of 16.8%)
• Outlook: Expects slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024

Other Notable Earnings

• United Rentals Inc (URI): Shares fell 4.22% after-hours.
  • EPS: $11.80 (missed expectations of $12.48)
  • Revenue: $3.99B (missed expectations of $4.01B)
  • FY Revenue Guidance: Adjusted to $15.1B – $15.05B (previously $15.1B – $15.35B)
• Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF): Shares rose 1.19%.
  • EPS: $2.95 (beat expectations of $2.41)
  • Revenue: $3.46B (beat expectations of $3.32B)
• ServiceNow Inc (NOW): Shares declined 0.85%.
  • EPS: $3.72 (beat expectations of $3.46)
  • Revenue: $2.81B (beat expectations of $2.74B)
• International Business Machines Corp (IBM): Shares dropped 4.44%.
  • EPS: $2.30 (beat expectations of $2.23)
  • Revenue: $14.97B (missed expectations of $15.07B)
• Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS): Shares increased 1.0%.
  • EPS: $0.44 (missed expectations of $0.54)
  • Revenue: $2.68B (missed expectations of $2.78B)
  • FY EPS Guidance: Adjusted to $2.45 (missed expectations of $2.48)
• Mattel Inc (MAT): Shares rose 3.37%.
  • EPS: $1.14 (beat expectations of $0.95)
  • Revenue: $1.84B (beat expectations of $1.68B)
• Newmont Corporation (NEM): Shares fell 6.37%.
  • EPS: $0.81 (missed expectations of $0.87)
  • Revenue: $4.05B (missed expectations of $4.67B)
• T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS): Shares gained 2.75%.
  • EPS: $2.61 (beat expectations of $2.42)
  • Revenue: $20.16B (beat expectations of $20.01B)
  • FY EBITDA Guidance: Adjusted to $31.6B – $31.8B (previously $31.5B – $31.6B)

US treasury auctions off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at a high yield of 4.590%

• WI level at the time of the auction 4.574%

The US treasury auctioned off $13 billion of 20 year bonds:

• High yield 4.590%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.574%
• Tail +1.6 basis points vs six-month average -0.62 basis points (although the last election was 2.0 basis points)
• Bid to cover 2.59Xvs six-month average 2.63X
• Directs 17.64% vs six-month average 16.93%
• Indirects 67.87% vs six-month average 72.78%
• Dealers 14.5% vs six-month average 10.29%

US September existing home sales 3.84M vs 3.86M expected

• US September 2024 existing home sales data

• Prior month 3.86M revised to 3.88M last month.
• Existing Home sales 3.84M annualized pace versus 3.86M estimate.Lowest level since October 2010
• Sales MoM -1.0% vs -2.0% last month (revised from -2.5%)
• Sales YoY -3.5% % vs -4.2% YoY last month. Last year sales pace was at 3.98 million
• Inventory 4.3 months vs 4.2 months last month. A year ago the month supply was 3.4 months
• Inventories are up 1.5% on the month
• Total inventory 1.39 million at the end of September
• Median price $404,500 up 3% year on year. This was the 15th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases

Other details:

• First-time buyers accounted for 26% of sales in September, matching the record low from August 2024 and November 2021, down from 27% in September 2023.
• All-cash sales made up 30% of transactions in September, rising from 26% in August and 29% in September 2023.
• Individual investors or second-home buyers purchased 16% of homes in September, down from 19% in August and 18% in September 2023.
• Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, remained steady at 2%, unchanged from last month and September 2023.
• The 30 year mortgage rate average 6.44% as of October 17. That’s up from 6.32% one week ago, but down from 7.63% one year ago

Regional data showed declines in Northeast, Midwest, and South but a rebound in the West:

• Northeast: Sales fell 4.2% MoM, down 6.1% YoY to 460,000; median price up 6.0% to $467,100.
• Midwest: Sales slipped 2.2% MoM, down 5.3% YoY to 900,000; median price up 5.0% to $306,600.
• South: Sales decreased 1.7% MoM, down 5.5% YoY to 1.72M; median price up 0.8% to $359,700.
• West: Sales rose 4.1% MoM, up 5.6% YoY to 760,000; median price up 1.7% to $616,400.

“Home sales have been essentially stuck at around a four-million-unit pace for the past 12 months, but factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy. Perhaps, some consumers are hesitating about moving forward with a major expenditure like purchasing a home before the upcoming election.”

US MBA mortgage applications W.E. 18 October -6.7% vs -17.0% prior

• Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 18 October 2024

• Prior -17.0%
• Market index 214.8 vs 230.2 prior
• Purchase index 131.3 vs 138.4 prior
• Refinance index 672.6 vs 734.6 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.52% vs 6.52% prior

Beige Book Reveals Flattening Economy and Moderating Employment

Economic Overview
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released on October 23, 2024, highlights a flattening economy with mixed signals on employment and consumer behavior across various Districts.

Key Findings

• Manufacturing Decline: Most Districts reported a decline in manufacturing activity.
• Affordable Housing Issues: Persistent shortages in affordable housing were noted across many communities.
• Infrastructure Projects: A few Districts observed increased activity from data center and infrastructure projects.
• Employment Trends: Slight employment growth was reported in over half of the Districts, with low worker turnover and easier access to finding workers.
• Home Prices: Edges up in many Districts, although increasing price sensitivity among consumers was also highlighted.
• Input vs. Selling Prices: Multiple Districts experienced rising input prices outpacing selling prices.

Stronger Districts

• Richmond: Modest overall growth, with increases in consumer spending, loan demand, and manufacturing. Hurricane Helene caused significant local damage.
• Dallas: Modest growth with steady housing demand but weakening retail sales and manufacturing output.
• San Francisco: Steady economic activity, with improved labor availability and slight wage growth, despite softness in retail sales and manufacturing.
• New York: Little change in overall activity with moderate wage increases and solid housing markets.
• Chicago: Slight increase in economic activity and consumer spending, with modest wage growth but a decline in business spending.

Weaker Districts

• Minneapolis: Slight decline in economic activity, despite employment growth and stable agricultural conditions.
• Philadelphia: Continued slight decline in business activity, with modest wage growth and rising expectations for future growth.
• Atlanta: Economic decline with steady employment but slow wage growth and decreased consumer spending.

Conclusion
The Beige Book paints a picture of an economy showing signs of stagnation, with various sectors facing unique challenges. While some Districts experience growth, the overall trend points to moderation in employment and consumer spending, setting a cautious tone for future economic policy considerations.

McDonald’s E-Coli outbreak update – 10 US states hit

• 1 death reported

Latest from the CDC:

• Cases: 49
• Hospitalizations: 10
• Deaths: 1
• States: 10
• This is a fast-moving outbreak investigation. Most sick people are reporting eating Quarter Pounder hamburgers from McDonald’s and investigators are working quickly to confirm which food ingredient is contaminated. McDonald’s has pulled ingredients for these burgers, and they won’t be available for sale in some states.

Let’s hope the death toll doesn’t rise.

Macklem press conference: We will take our next decision in December

• Comments from the Bank of Canada Governor in response to questions from the media

• Core inflation is easing as expected
• Our growth forecast hasn’t changed a great deal
• We’re going to be particularly focused on inflation and growth data
• There was a ‘clear consensus’ on cutting 50 bps today
• Expect there will be further cuts if things unfold as we expect
• Canadian can breathe a sigh of relief
• We’re coming out the other side, our focus now is on sticking the landing
• With inflation close to 2%, Canadians don’t need to worry about increasing costs of living

Macklem statement: We anticipate cutting our policy rate further

• Comments from the Bank of Canada governor in his opening press conference statement

Opening statement was pre-released:

• We took a bigger step today because inflation is now back to the 2% target and we want to keep it close to the target.
• Price pressures are no longer broad-based
• We need to stick the landing
• Household spending and business investment have picked up this year, but remain soft
• We anticipate cutting our policy rate further to support demand and keep inflation on target
• We will take our monetary policy decisions one at a time
• We expect growth in residential investment to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations
• Exports should remain strong, supported by robust demand from the United States
• We view the risks around our inflation forecast as reasonably balanced

Bank of Canada rate decision: 50 basis point cut, as expected

• Highlights of the Bank of Canada statement and the MPR released October 23, 2024

• Prior overnight rate was 4.25%
• The market was pricing in a 94% chance of a 50 bps cut
• The OIS market was priced at 2.60% for end-2025 ahead of the decision

Highlights of the statement:

• If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further
• The timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information
• We will take decisions one meeting at a time
• The labour market remains soft
• Population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest
• Growth in the United States is now expected to be stronger than previously forecast while the outlook for China remains subdued
• Growth in the euro area has been soft but should recover modestly next year
• the economy continues to be in excess supply
• BOC forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026

Canadian National Railway highlights soft macro backdrop

• Comments in yesterday’s conference call

Tracy Robinson (President and CEO):

• “The macro is lighter than what we expected coming into 2024 and maybe even a bit softer than what we thought on our last call back in July. We’re seeing this play out in our merchandise business, especially in construction and related commodities as well as in automotive.”
• “As we look forward, we see that continuing through next year, so kind of lower and longer.”

Ghislain Houle (Chief Financial Officer):

• “From a macroeconomic perspective, lumber remains at the trough and consumer consumption continues to be tepid.”
• “As we enter the final few months of the year, overall industrial production now looks to be largely flat for 2024.”

Remi Lalonde (Chief Commercial Officer):

• “Business has been a bit more challenging than expected due to the labor uncertainty and lower-than-expected industrial production and manufacturing activity and mixed signals around consumer confidence.”
• “Despite soft consumer confidence in the U.S. and Canada, we’re looking for sequential and year-over-year growth in intermodal”

Commodities

Gold Retreats from Record High as US Dollar Strengthens

Market Overview
Gold prices have dropped from an all-time high of $2,758, currently trading at $2,716, reflecting concerns over potential higher deficit spending under a possible Trump presidency. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to a two-month high of 104.50, contributing to the decline in gold prices as investors shift their risk appetite toward safe-haven currencies.

Market Dynamics

• Fed Rate Cuts: Traders are pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with expectations of another cut by year-end.
• Political Climate: Investor sentiment appears to favor a potential victory for former President Donald Trump over Vice-President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election on November 5. Concerns about Trump’s proposed policies, including increased deficit spending and tariffs, are contributing to inflationary fears.

Commodities Update
The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has provided some relief for commodities like Crude Oil, which has also dipped by 0.77% to $70.69 per barrel.

Daily Market Movers

• Jobless Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 19 are expected to rise slightly from 241K to 242K.
• PMI Forecasts: The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October is projected to improve from 47.3 to 47.5, while the Services PMI is estimated to dip from 55.2 to 55.
• Fed Easing Estimates: Data from the Chicago Board of Trade indicates that investors estimate 47 bps of Fed easing by the end of the year, slightly lower than the previous week.

China’s Gold Concentrate Imports Drop 22% Amid Tax Proposal Concerns

Market Performance Summary
Gold prices are down $10 today, following a record high yesterday. A recent report from Reuters indicates a significant decline in China’s gold imports, which may pose challenges for refiners but could have limited effects on the overall physical gold market.

Import Data
In September, China’s gold ore and concentrate imports fell 22.4% month-over-month, totaling 201,004.9 MT. This decline is attributed to a proposed tax change by Chinese customs that could impose higher taxes on gold products containing more than 58% iron or sulfur, classifying them as pyrite. Under this classification, imports would incur a 1% import tax and a 13% VAT.

Industry Reaction
The proposed tax has sparked opposition among Chinese importers, who are actively contesting the plan. In anticipation of potential retroactive taxes, some traders are already redirecting shipments to avoid the risk.

Market Impact
While this development presents a challenge for refiners and processors of gold, it is not expected to significantly disrupt the broader gold market. However, if domestic shortages of physical gold occur as a result, it could lead to a premium in the local market, which might restrict buying activity until supply chains stabilize.

Conclusion
The situation underscores the complexity of global gold trading dynamics, where regulatory changes can influence import volumes and processing strategies without necessarily impacting physical demand in the short term. Traders will be closely monitoring the unfolding tax situation and its implications for both import levels and the refining sector in China.

EIA weekly crude oil inventories +5474K vs +270K expected

• Highlights of the weekly US oil report from the EIA

• Crude oil inventories +5474K vs +270K exp
• Gasoline inventories +878K vs -1212K exp
• Distillates inventories -1140K vs -1679K exp
• Refinery utilization +1.8% versus expectations of -0.3%

More details:

Goldman Sachs says oil to average $76/bbl in 2025, sees two-sided risks

• 2025 supply glut isn’t guaranteed

Key Points:

• Forecasts $76/bbl average for 2025 on moderate surplus
• Maintains $70-85/bbl range view
• Risks skewed to downside due to high spare capacity, potential trade tariffs
• Brent spreads may be underpricing near-term physical tightness

Geopolitical factors:

• Limited risk premium despite Israel-Iran tensions
• High OPEC+ spare capacity providing buffer
• Iran oil production remains undisrupted
• Mid East conflict keeps supply risks in play

Bottom line: While Goldman sees downside risks dominating, they note 2025 supply glut isn’t guaranteed and year-end could see some upward price pressure.

EU News

European equity close: Third consecutive day of declines this week

• Lower every day so far this week on the STOXX 600

• Stoxx 600 -0.3%
• German DAX -0.2%
• Francis CAC -0.5%
• UK’s FTSE 100 -0.6%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.2%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.1%

Another bare calendar day in Europe

• The spotlight in the day ahead is on the Bank of Canada policy decision

UK Pay Growth Stalls, Expected to Cool Further in 2024-25

• Wage growth moderating

Reuters report on a survey from UK hiring firm BrightMine.

In summary:

• UK median pay awards held steady at 4% in three months to September (prev: 4% in August)
• Expected median pay rise for year ahead drops to 3% vs 6% in 2023
• Public sector pay awards unchanged at 5.5%

• Survey covered 64 pay awards affecting 433k employees
• Forward guidance based on 289 firms representing ~500k workers
• Q2 2023 saw higher increases at 4.8%

Market Impact:

• Data aligns with BoE’s expectations for wage growth moderation
• Supports case for further rate cuts, with next decision due Nov 7
• UK inflation hit 3-year low of 1.7% in September

The Bottom Line: Survey suggests UK labor market cooling continues, though firms seek “creative ways” to retain talent amid skills shortages. Data broadly supportive of BoE’s dovish pivot. Wage growth dynamics will continue to play a role in BoE policy making.

ECB Lagarde: Satisfied with inflation progress

• ECBs Lagarde speaking

• She is satisfied with inflation progress
• The ECB needs to be cautious

ECBs Lane: High conviction that disinflation is on track

• ECBs Lane on the newswires

• High conviction that disinflation is on track
• Some recent data raise questions about growth projections.
• Good recovery in economy still plausible baseline.
• Don’t have dramatic weakening of the economy.

ECB’s Knot: I’m pretty confident inflation will hit 2% in 2025

• Comments from the ECB member Klaas Knot

• I’m pretty confident inflation will hit 2% in 2025.
• We can take our foot off the brake if the base case holds.
• It’s logical to assume a recovery in consumption.
• Consumer recovery will take a bit longer.
• Structural undershoot of the 2% goal is not a risk now.
• Large economic deterioration is needed for bigger cuts.
• The biggest slowdown in wages is still ahead of us.
• Trade fragmentation will be bad for both the US and Europe.

ECB’s Centeno: Downside risks to growth are accumulating

• Comments from the ECB dove Mario Centeno

• Downside risks to growth are accumulating.
• 50 bps is on the table.
• Data will determine the cut size.
• There are early signs to be concerned about the labour market.
• Downside risks dominate growth and inflation.

ECB’s Holzmann: I see a soft landing for Europe as guaranteed

• Comments from the ECB hawk Robert Holzmann

• I see a soft landing for Europe as guaranteed.
• I’m not sure too much has changed in recent data.
• Market pricing of cuts is likely too aggressive.
• Some colleagues likely to push for big December cut.
• Current data don’t justify 50 bps in December.

ECB reportedly starting to debate whether rates need to go below neutral in latest cycle

• Reuters reports, citing half a dozen sources on the matter

The report says that ECB policymakers have already begun debating at what level do interest rates need to go in order to start stimulating the economy. The sources did say that any consensus is still a long way off though but it marks a significant turning point in the latest cycle, which could see the ECB cut rates sooner and by more than expected.

The change in thinking comes as the economic outlook is struggling and inflation continuing to hold lower than earlier predictions.

One source said that “I think neutral is not enough”, suggesting that the ECB may look to lower rates by much more in the months ahead. The only key piece of uncertainty though I would say, is that there is no set idea of where this neutral rate is supposed to be. Not even the ECB knows that themselves, at least for now.

Asia-Pacific-World News

Morgan Stanley says consumer confidence in China continues to gradually slide lower

• Need for further consumption stimulus to help alleviate the deflation spiral

Morgan Stanley AlphaWise Consumer Pulse Survey in late September, with 2,000 consumer respondents.

In summary:

• 49% of consumers expect the Chinese economy to improve in the next six months, down from 55% in June
• 13% to get worse, +1%
• 38% said they expect the economy to stay the same, +5%

Household spending intentions:

• 25% of consumers expect to spend more in the next quarter, -3% from june
• 10% expect to spend less, +2%

Morgan Staley call for better stimulus:

• “Our China economists believe the weakening consumer sentiment points to a need for further consumption stimulus to help alleviate the deflation spiral”

Senior Volkswagen executive deported from China

• Had been detained in China for 10 days

The report is from the Financial Times, gated, but Reuters summarized:

Volkswagen’s China chief marketing officer and head of product strategy, Jochen Sengpiehl, was deported back to Germany after being detained in China for about 10 days.

• allegedly tested positive for drugs after a holiday abroad

There is a little more at that link above.

Yellen says China stimulus efforts fail to address 2 key areas of shaky Chinese economy

• Yellen points to failures on boosting consumer spending and supporting property

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke on Tuesday at a press conference at the start of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Washington.

• “Our view has been that raising consumer spending in China as a share of GDP (gross domestic product) is really important, along with measures to address problems in the property sector,”
• “So far I would say I haven’t really heard any policies on the Chinese side that address that.”

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences calls for 2tln yuan bond issuance to stabilize stocks

The Institute of Finance at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) has published its latest Macroeconomic Financial Analysis Report, for Q3 2024,

The think tanks suggests issuing 2 trillion yuan in special government bonds. This would be help establish a stock market stabilization fund.

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1245 (vs. estimate at 7.1262)

• PBOC CNY reference rate setting for the trading session ahead

In open market operations (OMOs):

• PBOC injects 793bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%
• 642bn mature today in OMOs
• net injection is 151bn

IMF forecasts Australian CPI stays above 3% through 2025 – highest inflation in the world

IMF Cites:

• forecast 3.6% inflation for 2025, up from 2.8% in their previous forecast back in April
• underlying price pressures are also expected to ease only slowly; core, trimmed mean, inflation expected to sustainably return to the RBA’s target range at end-2025

BOJ Governor Ueda: Underlying inflation has been rising slowly

• Comments from the BOJ Governor

• It’s still taking time for us to get to 2% in a sustainable manner
• If you have inflation expectations anchored around zero, it’s hard to change them
• We can’t telegraph all our future movements ex ante
• The problem is that if you proceed very gradually and create expectations that rates are going to stay at low levels for a very long time, this could lead to huge build up of speculative positions

Tokyo Stock Exchange employee under investigation for suspected insider trading

• Japan Exchange Group has offered apologies

Japan’s Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission is investigating the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSX) employee.

• allegedly bought and sold stocks based on undisclosed corporate information
• a man in his 20s
• suspected of providing information on listed companies’ tender offers multiple times this year to a relative of his
• at least several hundreds of thousands of yen worth of profit made from equity trading.

TSX parent company Japan Exchange Group has offered apologies.

Cryptocurrency News

Bitcoin Retreats After Struggling to Surpass $70,000

Market Performance Summary
Bitcoin (BTC) has declined 2% today, trading around $65,900, following its inability to break through the $70,000 barrier.

Market Sentiment
Last week, positive sentiment surrounded Bitcoin as tech stocks and Nvidia shares reached record highs, and gold prices soared to all-time highs. Reports of substantial buying in Bitcoin ETFs suggested strong investor demand, contributing to optimism in the market.

Technical Analysis
Despite these bullish signs, Bitcoin couldn’t sustain momentum, retreating sharply today. Analysts suggest that the current price action may represent a retest of September’s highs. Consolidation around this level is hoped for, but a drop below $65,000 would raise concerns and likely signal a more significant downturn.

Future Catalysts Needed
Moving forward, Bitcoin appears to require a new catalyst to regain upward momentum. Current geopolitical tensions, particularly from the Middle East, and the instability surrounding the U.S. election could potentially impact market sentiment negatively, hindering Bitcoin’s recovery efforts.

Outlook
If Bitcoin manages to stabilize above the $65,000 mark, there may still be potential for a breakout in the coming weeks. However, a fall below this level could lead to further losses, prompting investors to reconsider their positions. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory as traders monitor external developments closely.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Dip Despite Strategic Partnerships

Market Overview
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP fell nearly 2% amid rising anticipation surrounding the upcoming US presidential election, reflecting market uncertainty.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Updates

• Bitcoin trades at $66,476, remaining approximately 11% below its all-time high of $73,777. Historically, October has been a positive month for BTC holders.
• Ethereum is down nearly 2% at $2,575, with $11.9 million in net inflows recorded on Tuesday, according to Farside Investors.
• XRP trades at $0.5268, reflecting a 1.33% decrease on the day.

Market Developments

• Chainlink announced its integration with SWIFT, aiming to streamline settlements for financial institutions. Chainlink CEO Sergey Nazarov stated, “the solution will enable pre-settlement and transaction confirmation through SWIFT’s established messaging standards.” This partnership is viewed as a significant bullish catalyst for LINK adoption.
• Ripple and IBM have teamed up to enhance the security of cryptocurrencies on Garanti BBVA Kripto’s trading platform, allowing the bank to develop institutional-grade infrastructure.

Industry Insights
Analysts at QCP Capital suggest that markets are pricing in a potential victory for former President Donald Trump, who has a crypto-friendly stance. Traders are anticipating a Bitcoin rally should Trump emerge victorious.
Additionally, SUI protocol announced an integration with Google Cloud to provide real-time blockchain data for AI and gaming applications. Binance, one of the largest centralized crypto exchanges, plans to delist all spot trading pairs of IDRT, KP3R, OOKI, and UNFI as noted in an official blog.

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